Ben Hodges - The Siege of Crimea has Begun as Ukraine Takes Control over the Black Sea and Coastline

Ben Hodes is a retired United States Army officer who became commander of the United States Army in Europe in November 2014 and held that position of 3 years until retiring from the Army in January 2018 he was most recently a senior adviser to Human Rights first until 2023 and serves as NATO senior Mentor for Logistics until recently he was also the Persian chair in strategic studies at the center for European policy analysis is specializing in NATO the transatlantic relationship and Internation

al Security welcome to silic welcome to Silicon curtain please like And subscribe uh to the channel to get alerts about the fantastic videos that are coming up do also add comments as well because it really helps the videos to perform buy me a coffee if you like what we do but before you do that please check out the validated Ukrainian Charities that appear in the description of the video it's never been more important than it is now to help you ukrainians to remain resilient against Russian agg

ression Ben I'm absolutely delighted to welcome you back well I am grateful for the privilege junan well we've discussed a lot of topics and I think over the last two years certain things have become clearer but also certain moves by Western allies have albeit slowly but but followed many of the things we were advocating And discussing uh you know a year year and a half ago um but at the same time we've also got a lot of stuff wrong about Putin we were wrong about his invasion of Georgia we were

wrong about his invasion of crier and a lot of people uh were wrong about his fa scale invasion of uh Ukraine in 2022 my question here is what are we still getting wrong what rabbits can he pull out of the hat that may UNF foot us or surprise us well what we're still getting wrong is that we are not accepting the fact that Russia is at war with us there are still too many good people that believe somehow that Russia is a responsible nation that they we just really need to stop provoking them an

d that we need to negotiate and this will all be worked out and this is such in my view a naive way to look at Vladimir Putin but not just him it's also the whole Russian apparatus um he demonstrated that he gives not a toss for uh International law or what other countries think about him he only wants us all to fear him he killed Nali during the Munich security conference to make sure that even though Russia was not there they were still part of the conversation and then of course he holds an e

lection that nobody on the planet accepts as a legitimate outcome um and of course he is um threatening the use of nuclear weapons all the time threatening to strike bases in NATO countries that f-16s from which f-16s might fly into Ukraine so we need to think and act strategically and accept that Russia's at war with us and that we should be thinking about how we deal with that um now being at War doesn't mean shooting you know for I think in the west we tend to think of you're at war or not at

War meaning only kinetic whereas the Russians use everything from threats to economic to disinformation to uh kinetic and everything in between depending on the circumstances we've got to get on that same kind of a mindset easide is another incredible one there I attend an event in in in London recently where the kov kadam EOS side was discussed and of course the threats against the zapia uh nuclear power station um and only this week the uh hydroelectric station has been hit and taken out of a

ction depriving har of energy again the scale of brutality and the actions he's prepared to take seem to wrong foot us or unfortunately uh we seem to sort of normalize many of these barbaric actions and sort of move on with relatively little coverage well excellent point I mean the things that they're doing uh in the past normally would have brought uh cries of outrage and calls for action and now it's like oh is just Russia you know what can you do about it and and and that's what Putin underst

ands about us that we really feel helpless even though we shouldn't I mean the combined economies of the EU let alone the US UK and Canada the combined economies of the EU dwarf whatever Russia has but somehow we've talked oursel into the fact that oh my God Russia's on the war footing 40% of their economy is on the war footing that's that's 40% of Spain's economy I mean that's what we're talking about and so we have with all respect to our Spanish friends but you understand what what I mean and

um you know the I like what you brought up about this Eco side you know the um there are lots of ships carrying oil from Russia through the Danish across the Baltic Sea through the Danish Straits and then on out into markets and this not only generates income for Russia's War Machine uh and the oligarchs are making money of off of all of this but it also is a huge environmental risk for Denmark and so if we were truly serious if we were thinking strategically and about competing against Russia

in all domains uh all of the countries of the EU would be putting their arms around uh Denmark saying go ahead we'll support you when you you you invoke your right to stop these ships because of the risk of an environmental disaster that they pose especially since they they refuse to bring on board a pilot to get you through the streets so this is an area where not only can we inflict some pain on Russia um but it also would create a problem for them instead of us always responding to what they

do and say and that Fleet I mean it's an interesting point and uh to curious uh coincidence I put that exact question to the experts in this Eide uh um panel this Fleet isn't just a normal Fleet and it's not registered using the normal Insurance compliance it's a gray Fleet which doesn't conform to International codes in any way whatsoever do you think this is a ticking time bomb and actually should we be killing two birds with one stone by effectively uh Strangling Russia's ability to make mone

y off of that while also enforcing International norms and protecting the environment you know I'm not a lawyer but I think everybody knows that international law is only what the International Community says it is is and so declaring something uh a law or International agreement but not enforcing it uh is pretty much what we're doing with Russia they're allowed to violate freedom of navigation uh they um thumb their nose at environmental uh regulations and agreements and clearly uh it's extreme

ly dangerous what they're doing having ships that are known to be uh either I won't say unseaworthy but that they are not nobody should have confidence there's a reason most of them are not actually properly insured and the fact that they will not take on a pilot a Danish pilot to get through the Straits is again it shows a total lack of respect for international norms and agreements and as long as we don't do anything about it the Russians are going to keep doing whatever they want and going ba

ck to this uh phrase you mentioned of a certain complacency um here's here's the provocative question we are are and many experts I speak to confidently state that that NATO is is is an incredible success uh Article 5 is an incredible success and Russia has not invaded any uh countries that are covered by that the threat is to mova and others that come outside of the Article Five um sort of agreement having said that there are rumors of Russian troops being uh amassed next to the swalk Gap and t

here are speech just last week which uh lukashenko was uh in conversation with his generals uh clearly talking about sort of provocations and military action are around baltics have we lulled ourselves into thinking that you know mutually sure destruction Article 5 we're okay actually because we're covered by these and could this be one area where Putin Springs yet another surprise well of course it should not be a surprise because we've been talking about these things that you just described uh

ad nauseum uh for the last few years so nobody should be surprised although I predict we will be surprised because there are still too many people that have their head in the sand and don't want to have to address the reality because if you if you acknowledge the threat then you're obligated to do something about it and as you know right there in UK um countryes uh the the government's having a hard time coming up with a budget that provides the security that UK needs versus what it can afford

um you know I I don't I don't know that there are Russian troops massing near the suuk corridor uh but certainly this is the place in my view it would be one of the most likely places where they might attempt to do something um and then to create this so-called escalate to deescalate situation where they seize a part of of Lithuania for example and then turn to us and say do you really want to get into a nuclear war over a little bit of Lithuania and by the way it's our right to connect uh you k

now to kaliningrad and blah blah blah um I think that what lukashenka is doing of course this is part of the theater I mean uh his his army could not U defeat his police force I mean that that it really is there's a reason they haven't been involved in the fight on on the side of the Russians against Ukraine CU he knows they would all be destroyed uh in the early days so I think this is a little bit of theater for him um to uh perhaps it's the audience he intends to reach is Russia there to show

that hey I'm still on board uh but keep some distance or maybe it's intended for a domestic audience I can't tell but I I seriously doubt that his forces are much of a threat to anybody none less that geography is what it is and so Lithuania Poland Germany and the US in particular which have the closest NATO enhanced Ford presidence battle groups you know you have to practice you have to exercise you have to be ready and uh Germany agreeing to having a full AR uh Brigade combat team there in Li

thuania within a couple more years that's a big deal uh and and I think they're going to deliver on that and uh let's turn to the revolution that we're seeing in the air and sea war since we last spoke there's been an extraordinary extension of Ukraine's capabilities to threaten Russia Air Supremacy and we're seeing now I think we're up to a third of the Black Sea Fleet uh essentially promoted to submarine class um what what else are we going to see here and uh you know how has Ukraine been able

to develop these extraordinary capabilities it really is impressive um they have changed the character of naal Warfare at least for enclosed areas like the Black Sea or the Baltic Sea and and I think all of us all of our navies are watching closely um the vulnerabilities that ukrainians have been able to exploit and um the fact that they've done this with a clever blend of new Technologies adapted Technologies sabotage Special Forces um versus a traditional ship on ship type of of combat I thin

k this also points to the lack of Readiness and capability of the Russian black SE Fleet I mean they they were no better than the Russian army in the early days of this of this conflict and they've really been exposed now uh to the point that they are almost a a nonf factor it certainly seems that way and the Ukraine indans also have cleverly gone after the lsts The Landing ships tank um which are the larger vessels that could also be used to move Logistics across as of SE for example U if the K

urt's bridge is destroyed or or unusable so um smart targeting by the ukrainians going after the logistics just like going after the dry dock in seval I mean I'm not a Navy guy but even I know that if you don't have your dry dock you can't do significant maintenance and so they're having to shift further east um I think much of what has happened in the Black Sea will be applicable in the Baltic Sea as well I don't see the US Navy or the Royal Navy for example sending Capital ships up into the Ba

ltic Sea uh but there's there's not a need to do that um if you've got uh Maritime unmanned systems out there doing uh doing things um so I I think the ukrainians have found a way since the the land operations are uh probably going to remain relatively stabilized for the next many months this is one of the ways they're able to keep pressure on Russia they've also been able to take out a number of ships that were protecting the kch bridge Against drones is it possible to say at this point that th

e siege of Crimea has begun and we could well see further attacks on not just Logistics uh bringing supplies via the Crimean Peninsula but the final destruction of the bridge in fact it's been admitted in Russia they're no longer actually sending military supplies across the bridge because of past attacks and because of the likelihood of future ones I think I I like you're phrasing uh that this is the siege of of crier and um you know that this is an enormous structure this this bridge is an eno

rmous structure and and so it's going to take more than a couple of storm Shadows or toist to uh to drop it I think it's going to take a lot of um well-placed uh explosives delivered by some means uh and probably a lot and of course it'll be part of a larger operation involving deception and misdirection and um I think you know ukrainians who have have demonstrated a a level of cleverness um and Savvy that's as good as any in the world over the last couple years so they I'm pretty sure that they

've got a plan in the works on how they're going to do this and the and when the time is right and and they are confident that they can do it but doing things like what you describe knocking out uh reducing the ability of the of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to protect the bridge is part of it um going after air defenses in the areas part of it um partisan networks this is all part of it and of course the Russians realize their vulnerability that's why they improved or developed this railroad that

runs through donbass U that can still bring some Logistics to Russian troops in the southern uh zapara and herone regions um but of course a railroad there is also going to be vulnerable and needless to say attack him's never more important to take this stuff out um but we we've covered that one something else we covered in the very first episode because I've just been sort transcribing and looking through it we discussed escalation management uh way back a year and a half in that first uh inte

rview you also very clearly um made the point that retaking crier was pivotal to achieving a victory over Putin in recent uh events that I've been part of in in Berlin Paris and so on get the distinct impression that there is queasiness around the idea in Paris uh maybe less so in Paris now but certainly in Berlin and Washington about the idea of Ukraine retaking donbass and especially retaking Crimea is it now clearer that Ukraine is not being supplied to retake these territories but is being s

upplied to essentially freeze the lines of contact maybe go up to marul or wherever but there is a certain disqui about them going further I I think you could uh definitely draw that conclusion uh I haven't heard it stated quite that way but I think based on what we see and what we don't see and what we hear and what we don't hear you could come away from with uh with that conclusion uh the fact that the administration uh which has done a lot over the past couple years but they still have stoppe

d short of their most important task which is to clearly identify the Strategic objective and to lay out the Strategic priorities but I think even the Russians realize there are zero upsides for them to use a nuclear weapon and their nuclear weapons are really most effective when they don't use them because they see how we exactly what you just described we're not willing to help Ukraine take Crimea because we're worried that the Russians might use a nuclear weapon so we we've got to get over th

at mental block and you're no longer in the military and you're able to uh articulate these things in in a clear manner what are the challenges though for someone who is still serving potentially and can see what the military strategy would dictate and yet is really serving uh a civilian Administration who is perhaps more led by a managerial mindset as opposed to a leadership mindset how do you get these ideas across uh sometimes against Fierce resistance or even in a circumstance where you perc

eive that a policy is is Incorrect and strategically could lead to failure okay so three or four very important points you've raised uh right here number one obviously you know in our Democratic societies we the military works for the civilian leadership and so um in the US you know your oath is to the Constitution and uh officers in the British Military and the French and German and so on you know it's our duty to carry out the lawful orders of our civilian leaders um and it's not appropriate f

or uh officers to be uh arguing against policy certainly in public that that would be entirely inappropriate however uh it is the duty of officers to give their best professional military advice to the civilian leadership and say look this is this is uh what we need to do this is going to be the cost this is the cost of failure here's the risk if we don't do it we're have to do this and to be very very blunt um and usually um unless you're you know you do with it all the time civilian leadership

will not appreciate the amount of time required or the the expense or uh the different sort of factors associated with this and to include the cost of failure so this is where professional military leaders um and defense Ministry of Defense civil servants have to lay out in very cold facts no no emotion dot dot dot um and and especially the time this is how long it will take to do certain things now um of course at the end of the day when the prime minister or the president or the secretary or

the Minister of Defense says thanks for your input no this is what we're going to do well then you salute and you carry it out as if it was your own idea uh but that doesn't mean you can't be um doing everything you can to learn from what we're seeing uh M uh going to the fullest extent of what is allowed in terms of providing uh Aid uh making sure that we're giving the ukrainians everything we possibly can within the constraints of the policy I would never advocate for anybody in uniform to int

entionally go around or undermine their civilian leadership that's I mean then we're no better than the goes yep and what's interesting I think is one of the results of the political impass of course has been a so-called ammunition famine uh over the last couple of months that does seem to be easing in certain areas of the front with uh initiatives like the one of the Czech president and his diplomats and um a ramping up of of uh European production of 155 millimet shells despite this and this I

think you know Keen to see if you you know share this the extraordinary story is despite the ammunition famine um Ukraine has been able to consolidate around defensive positions and in some places those defensive positions are fairly shallow and weak nonetheless they've held the Russians at Bay despite extraordinarily Fierce you know Mass assaults how is Ukraine able to create these possibilities even when they're not getting the equipment they need so once again uh Jonathan you you really shou

ld have your own podcast I mean these are excellent questions um you know in a war there's there's two sides I mean we all we focus on the Ukrainian side oh my God they're running out of ammunition they've suffered casualties it's it's looking Bleak they lost abiva five weeks ago is when adifa fell the Russians were not able to exploit that because they don't have the ability to I mean they are you know the other side is in real trouble they I think they are in big trouble from a Manpower standp

oint I mean about every two months they'll announce a a huge 300,000 people call up it doesn't happen they they don't do it um they have lost so many people they don't have the ability to train a 300,000 new people or they've they've built two new guards tank armies BS these they're announced but they don't exist or they certainly are not combat formations yet now um I think their ammunition you know this number has been out there so many times that taken as taken for granted as a law of nature

that they've got 10 to one or 5 to1 advantage on artillery shells that's probably true in certain places but if you don't have the ability to exploit or use that um they have lost so many of their experienced officers and sergeants so I would just say um that uh war is not just about math and who's got the most people I mean we lost in Vietnam we l lost in Afghanistan so um I I think that uh ukrainians are are defending their Homeland and they know the terrain better than anybody and the the Rus

sians are uh the occupiers they're the Invaders and I don't think you could fill up a school bus with Russian soldiers that actually want to be there and there's an interesting Focus there which leads on what you're saying Ukraine seems to make incredible investments in Precision Munitions we see fpv drones and others um increasing in accuracy increasing in capability on the other side Russia is developing ever larger Glide bombs but essentially they're a bit like the v1s and V2s in the last AG

of the second world war their weapons of mass Terror mass destruction to be used ultimately against civilian targets um do you see these these alternative sort of approaches there and um you know this eventually will lead Russia to to to lose because they're not investing in Precision capability so uh this is this is a tough question um they certainly when I talk to my Ukrainian friends they talk about the overwhelming advantage that Russia has in drones and in electronic warfare so I mean there

is there is a uh a challenge for Ukraine in that regard um and these these Zar bombs that that are being talked about um I mean that that is going to cause a problem uh certainly they'll be used uh against civilian targets uh against Power grids against infrastructure um but bombing by itself I mean we know from World War II where you know all sides tried strategic bombing and none of that was ever going to bring about the end of the war uh by itself so what we obviously have to figure out ways

to help Ukraine Pro protect their Civ infrastructure from these things uh as well as get out the source somehow before these things ever take off what what can we do to help Ukraine uh attack air bases from which these things are are are being delivered I I think that's part of what we can do to help and of course the story has been put round there are many arguments as to whether it's actually true or not but that the US and Berlin are not happy at Ukraine strategy of hitting uh fuel refining

capabilities in Russia the argument has been put that's going to drive out oil prices crude prices but that seems to be illogical because you're not hitting the crude Supply you're hitting internal fuel oil production uh for the war effort um how much veracity do you put on this idea that the US is not happy at that strategy and also at the Insurgency that is taking place which essentially are Russian troops but very much under the guidance of Ukraine who are in belgrad and ksk oblasts so uh whe

n I read that the Financial Times report um about supposedly the administration had told Ukraine to knock off the attacks on the I was I was Furious and then I thought okay even though it's in financial times this can't be true I mean it's such a terrible disgusting uh policy uh by the US I said please tell me this is not true unfortunately it appears it was true and and unfortunately it's it's believable that it's true um and I think uh sto stopping the attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastruc

ture at the same time that the Russians are destroying Ukraine's infrastructure I mean it's a what a cruel joke uh and and of course it comes across as being only for the self-interest of the American politics which is the other reason that the uh um uh the aid packages have been stopped because of us domestic politics this for me as an American is embarrassing and it shows a lack of uh strategic um prioritization and understanding and we've lost our way I I I don't understand it and of course U

the Chinese watch this the Iranians watch this all of our other adversaries watch this this and U I I I hope that the administration comes out quickly and says hey that wasn't us that was what we meant to say was uh but I don't get any hints of that's coming out it's curious isn't it because uh I mean not all lawyers are have the leadership capability of Abraham Lincoln um but it did seem that that that Jake Sullivan rushed to Kev um it was an unannounced trip and we don't quite know what was d

iscussed in that trip but it very much comes in the wake of these oil refinery hits one could perhaps put two and two together and that gives perhaps some credibility to to that story we were discussing yeah well I hope the ukrainians will ignore this I mean they're not it's not like they're depending on us weapons to uh to do it they haven't received much from the US in the last several months anyway um and I think uh Deputy Prime Minister sfan she said hey this this is a legitimate Target and

and uh and we're going to continue to defend our country and that's that's exactly what they should be doing and of course it gives the signal to Vladimir Putin that he can act with impunity and even though there are supposedly hundreds of thousands of Russian dead many many times more even in just the FD offensive than they experienced in Afghanistan there seems to be no limit to what Putin is prepared to sacrifice just as there are no limits to his power no limits to the amount of time he will

be spending in office after the election could we be seeing easily a million plus dead Russians by the end of the year and is there any stopping Putin well if it's if it's based on his willingness to spend other people's lives especially if they're from the outer ethnic regions of the Russian Federation then yes you're right um at some point I mean just imagine if we uh the West got serious about sanctions and got serious about shutting down all the ways that Russia is able to keep their War Ma

chine going if we got really serious about that um and then you've got oligarchs and people that are no kidding I mean they are really suffering financially I mean they're they're feeling it um then I think it becomes Putin's uh freedom of maneuver uh be becomes a little bit more restricted um I don't en Envision the uh Russian people are going to rise up and say no more although I was impressed with how many people turned up at Nani's uh funeral um that was that was impressive um you know this

whole terrorist attack at the crocus uh theater uh a couple weeks ago uh how desperately the Kremlin has tried to pin this on Ukraine somehow um is and desperate is is the word I mean I think they are desperate looking for for something to protect the image of Putin is able to protect his people which obviously he can't do uh because they've got so much focus elsewhere I don't think the FSB is quite the uh razor sharp organization it used to be back in in the day and uh you know there there's so

me cracks out there that we should be clever in exploitation and I don't I don't know that we're doing that and to pick up on that point do you sense that there is a dir of creativity imagination willingness to create opportunities on our side and when we look at that initiative by the Czech go we mentioned a minute ago that's an extraordinary initiative which is having a very real and beneficial impact on Ukraine but really it's it's one man a diplomat who came up with the idea and and and foun

d obviously a political leader to Champion it where are the other plans where are the other consortia to you know log equipment around the world whether it be equipment that is set for scrap or is uh you know about to be expired why aren't governments uh and D say bureaucrats be more proactive in just scraping together everything we can or even you know creating consortia or installations to um re refurbish equipment from around the world we seem to be incredibly slow and incapable of this creat

ive thinking yeah because we don't have have a strategic objective look uh I'm going to share something tell you something that you already know uh January or December 1941 Japanese are just bomb Pro Harbor Great Britain has been through almost three years of end to-end disasters uh and Churchill comes to Washington meets with Roosevelt they spend Christmas and then they have the Arcadia conference in January 42 um no Americans or most Americans did not want to get into a war in Europe uh agains

t Germany although they were obviously hot to fight against Japan U neither the Americans or Great Britain had optimism reason for optimism but these two leaders sat down and said Germany first we're going to defeat Germany first uh and we're going to combine our staffs so that we can figure out how to do this so a strategic priority uh that required political Courage by Roosevelt because again it was going to be Germany first not Japan but they understood that if they didn't defeat Germany firs

t number one Great Britain might not be around uh and then it would be very difficult to get into the continent and then we wouldn't be able to turn all of our assets towards the destruction of Japan and then one year later January 1943 the Casablanca conference Churchill and Roosevelt meet together again and they come up with the Strategic instate unconditional surrender not this nonsense of we want to fight to get to a better negotiating position against Hitler or the emperor of Japan uncondit

ional surrender we're going to crush it we're going to destroy them so here you have two leaders with Clarity of strategic objective and Clarity of strategic priority again at a time when there was no reason for real optimism and they're able to explain to the populations okay Ford Motor Company you're nobody's going to be buying cars for the next three years you're going to be making jeeps and trucks and and and we got mobilized in terms of industry and we raised huge armies navies and Air Forc

es and it we won the war that's that's what's missing now we don't have that Clarity of strategic instate and strategic priority and therefore Industries don't get mobilized populations don't get mobilized we need that sort of clarity and in terms of the immediacy of requirements does it make more sense at this point yes those production lines need to be uh reinstated or built from scratch in some cases but there also a lot of iuns around the world um that are in this period of you know expiry u

m and really you know they're they're they're going for scrap uh without anyone thinking about whether that could change if you were in charge how would you go about this how would you go about identifying what's out there and what would be required to refurbish and ship it and of course the financing in place I'm thinking in particular I've got a bit of a shopping list here uh supposedly 2,800 Bradley uh in store storage um which is I think about sort of 30 40% of the total number in the US um

and these look like they're going to be stored until they're scrapped you've got Challenger ones in a man Challenger two tanks are going to be scrapped um While others are going to be upgraded to the next uh the next sort iteration of those uh you've got TR one eura Fighters taipans A10 warthogs apparently 58 units set for scrap um and the list goes on there are patriots that are close to their expiry date but we know that Ukraine needs Patriots desperately uh and then of course there's the f-16

s that at the moment are going to be supplied if they ever are in numbers that that may not make a a huge difference if you're in charge what would you do to try and log and and get this stuff to Ukraine with a sense of immediacy well at the risk of sing like a scratch record of course you have to have uh a strategic objective what what is our desired strategic instate you we spent 20 years in Afghanistan and did not have a clearly identified instate except for the first year then 19 years we we

re in search of policies about you know schools girls rights uh cap Force cap you know blah blah blah um without having an endstate and so you cannot possibly develop good policy without having a strategic instate that's clearly identified so that I I want to keep emphasizing that if you have that then you turn to your Min Secretary of Defense or Minister of Defense say hey I don't care what it costs you get them they need the ability to do this and this and this empty the warehouse everything t

hat we have get it to them and then and then it happens but without that kind of clarity then you know you're going to run into good well-intentioned people that say um uh you know uh it's a we got to change the law here and this and and there's a million reasons why not and the Pentagon which is loaded with really good hardworking people um I served there three times Ian they weren't like dogs there it is the most conservative place on the planet and that's conservative with a small C because t

heir job is to make sure that they never fail a task for the United States so they're never going to take risk like um you know if we give these up then we don't have any and um so that's that's part of it now uh I think it's also important to keep in mind when you talk about here 2,000 Bradley Fighting vehicles that have been sitting out in the desert right they have not been sitting in climate controlled environment they have not had any maintenance in years so the fact is probably uh at some

significant cost some of them could in fact be brought back to life and provided to the ukrainians but that you know that's it's time and that's money so is that time and money best spent there or do we focus on what do they really need which is of course as you talked about um air and missile defense capabilities uh long range Precision strike capabilities ammunition um that's that's where I would uh would put a focus is to get those capabilities there um finally I I just heard that the uh you

know we have one factor that makes the javelin and hellfire and the uh the gmlrs rocket that come off of the AAC or the well attacs um it's one place that makes them and of course you know is one company that makes the little rocket motor for all of them and so this um this is an area where I would be pouring a lot of money into to say okay well let's triple that now I mean what will it take just tell me I'll write the check yeah and that requires will and strategy let's pick up on that because

the strategy seems to be uh risk management uh to enforce a kind of illusory status quo in the belief that that is you know going to prevent X Y and Z from happening again these are all assumptions they are not uh facts um but it seems as we go on and Putin's regime becomes ever more toxic on the one hand the Ukrainian price of Victory whenever it comes in you know this year next year or 2026 the price of that Victory will be far far higher than if it was achieved in 2022 but also the systemic i

nstability in Russia uh and the degradation of whatever vestage it had of civil society is being eroded so not if but when it eventually collapses that will be far more catastrophic um than if Ukraine was able to achieve a speedy Victory so would you class this strategy I mean I'm almost thinking it as a kind of equilibrium appeasement are you classing this actually not a lowrisk strategy but actually is an extremely high risk strategy which has just elongated an elongated this this conflict out

to the point now where the the the end result could be extraordinarily risky if we were thinking strategically we would connect Russia Iran and their proxies uh North Korea and China and then just like Church Roosevelt said Germany first we say Russia first if if we help Ukraine defeat Russia then Iran which is Russia's best Ally and vice versa is isolated U they're not getting anything from Russia they got nobody to help them and uh and then there the Iranians are less capable of giving weapon

s and support to the houthis Hamas and hisbah uh and then the Chinese are saying huh okay well the West is serious about protecting in uh the things they say they care about sovereignty freedom of navigation uh International agreements and so on so to me strategically the sooner that we can help Ukraine defeat Russia the sooner Iran becomes isolated and China is dissuaded for making a terrible miscalculation um but that means we've got to have people who have a career vested in Russia some great

power uh to start talking in terms of exactly what I like the way you described it it's inevitable I mean Russia the collapse of the Soviet Union continues to this day and it is uh because it's built on a writing Foundation it's going to collapse uh the sooner that happens the better for all of us but but we should not be scared to think about what does that mean we were not prepared I was not prepared uh for the collapse of the Soviet Union I haven't met too many people that in 1988 said next

year is the year okay I think we should we should anticipate this and be prepared for that that's incredibly important I mean you highlight something here which is it's not just inreasing the risk in the Russia Eurasian continent you're highlighting there that actually Global risk uh is being uh massively um put you know threatened by our um lack of a strategy and lack of action well um I think the Chinese um are encouraged by our failure to uh to to mobilize to to and when I say mobilize I don'

t mean in the old sense of calling up all your Reserves and reinstall reinstituting conscription or whatever but you know getting in the mindset and prioritizing uh our our Industries and of course these industries are not charity I mean they they have thousands of employees complex Supply chains um but you use the word uh accountability earlier which I like um it when uh during the m security conference in February I was talking to a gentleman let's just say he worked for an agency that is dire

ctly associated with the responsibility of finding the million rounds that the EU promised and he told me they were having huge difficulty because Nations do not want to talk about what they have so there's a lack of transparency there for their own security reasons and companies were reluctant to uh say what they could make for proprietary reasons so really what we don't know what what's out there and then like five days later president Pell say I just found a source for 100,000 rounds and then

a couple of weeks later it's actually one and a half million rounds and now people are discovering that Tura can make enormous amounts of ammunition and so um I will predict that by the end of this year there are going to be mountains of ammunition uh that are being uh produced delivered and we'll be in a will be in a different place but it it is taken uh the wakeup call and political leaders start poking the stick into hey what do you have I mean what what's out there and when President pavl n

ot surprising that the former chairman of the military committee at NATO would have an idea where some ammunition might be you know I think there's a dozen other countries got into a queue saying we'll help pay for it that's extraordinary and we can only hope that we see more of those initiatives well we didn't cover the US election I think we'll save that one for the next conversation that's a can of worms as well um but it does sound like there are reasons to potentially be optimistic from our

discussion today and of course I know everyone watching the channel will be immensely grateful uh not just for your parents here but for the time you spend in talking to so many people who are uh you know trying to uh fight the case for supporting Ukraine thank you very much for the privilege John