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prize join today at sportsgamingpodcast.com patreon hey everybody Jim McMahon here and
yo
u're listening to sgpn let it ride [Music] he's one of those guys who will get penetration mmm welcome everyone to the sports gambling
podcast I'm Sean stacking the money green with my partner and picks Ryan real money Kramer what's
happening cream dog football doubt Bears dub Bears mini dicks Ryan I'm worried that we the Bears
some of our audience the the younger the young whippersnapper d-gens may not even know the duh
bear sketch that was uh that was really just an all-time classic Saturd
ay live Chris Farley we
have multiple multiple heart attacks it was just uh back when they were good yeah back when they
were good dominant I mean that 1985 team Colby and I were uh breaking down some film in that
85 Bears team I mean you look at the teams they I think they had two shutouts in the playoffs
leading up to the Super Bowl where they you know put it on um the New England Patriots it was
like what 41 to 10 or something crazy yeah tough time for the AFC and that was the debut debt
s
be because they had they listed a bet on whether or not the fridge would score a touchdown and I
think it paid out like eight to one and that was the debut of coming up with interesting uh Super
Bowl profits and gambling's uh been amazing ever since yeah I mean just for reference they beat the
Giants 21-0 that year in the playoffs the Giants went on the next year to dominate the league and
beat the Broncos by like four touchdowns in the Super Bowl so yeah no and they they only lost one
g
ame that year I think it was to uh the Dolphins uh Danny Moreno having a pretty good game against
him but yeah it was they were just a dominant team and uh struggles what do you think Mike Ditka
would do he pulled up to a Northwestern car wash maybe leave the windows down yeah that's the kind
of guy my dick is hey speaking of uh football guy Northwestern uh we just taped a uh bonus college
football episode college football preview with her good boy uh Philly Steele that will be dropping
on
the feed later today as well as our uh you know uh the two and A's continues or put out
three podcasts today it is uh just complete domination and uh speaking of us dominating
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there Kramer let's talk uh 2022 Chicago Bears the Bears the Bears the Bears not a great run as
you nailed it I mean you had them going three and fourteen Ryan Sean please please this is not
something we just say three and fourteen we look back at the actual they were two and three we look
back at the actual quadrants here's the best part I had them starting two and three that's quadrant
oh this is why the spreadsheets are grea
t oh and four in the second quadrant one in three in the
third cut quadrant oh and four are one and four in the final weight no oh and four oh and five in
the final quadrant so yes not a good year for dub Bears depending on uh where you're pulling it
from they were five and eleven and five eleven and one five and twelve either way one of the
worst teams against the spread their win total was six and a half they went under obviously
Kramer you nailed that I was slightly above Market uh with
I had them going eight games uh
the defense horrible projection the defense was really bad they're yeah their dvoa was 30th their
offensive dvoa was 25th because of Justin Field's running ability that was about it defensive dboa
32 buy like a wide margin does Justin Fields wear a right a white ribbon and stand with running
backs with running backs he might have him and Jonathan Taylor are gonna hold out together 1100
yards pretty impressive that is I mean he had some awesome plays it's just
the there's just
there's no consistency yet in the passing game fourth most turnover worthy Place yeah uh somehow
he was ranked 36th out of 41 eligibility yeah yeah when you're when you're pointing out that
they're they a 32 quarterbacks obviously well there's 32 teams 32 teams if you're if you're
below 32 at any sort of QB metric obviously a red flag now their estimated wins were 4.9 their
pythag wins were five they were one of the teams that underperformed their pie tag by one of the
wi
dest margins last year let's go let's go that's what happens when you get to near the edge right
you're gonna you're gonna seem greater over or under performance when you get these teams they
go all the three wins is impossible to project yeah right so you're never gonna happen that says
oh a three-win team over performed so I I'll just throw that out there because I do think it's worth
noting when you're talking about regression with teams that dwell at the bottom or the top you do
have to
at least be observant of the fact of how you know Everyone likes to pretend they're smart
and say things like long tail without actually understanding [ __ ] when you have when you
have an outlier result of course it's going to look like it was an outlier result yeah that's
ridiculous uh TJ in the YouTube chat pointing out the parents lost 10 straight to end the game got
swept by the Packers Justin Fields threw for 200 yards how many times around if you had to guess oh
not man I mean his m
ore than 200 yards more than 200 yards twice yes wow 100 so locked in 130
yards so locked in 130 uh yards per game for the old Justin Fields there again obviously the
the pythag there were one and seven in one score games they really figured out ways to lose but
they were actually kind of Lucky when it came to field goal luck fumble luck that kind of stuff so
that actually might hurt them if you're looking at overall regression so the pro and they and they
did in their defense um they did p
lay one of the I think hardest schedules in the league that's
accurate opponents had the highest win percentage last year but again though when you give them when
you provide 13 14 wins to your schedule you are doing more than your part well yeah and looking
back at it I guess it's not a shock that 2022 is kind of a dead year for them they ate 93 million
dollars in dead cap most smart most in NFL history right so giving your Giants a run for their money
they were moving forward with the tea
m it's smart right that's how you move forward you just kind
of have to eat a bad year but when you look at their active spending this year they're still in
the bottom ten active spending of course is like what are you actually spending on your team so
yeah maybe they're still dealing with a little bit of dead cap situation but I I think you know
again the Bears are one of these teams when you look back you're like okay we're optimistic
because Justin Fields is a badass athlete and we got t
he right I don't I can't even say that we
got the right smart GM even though his name's Ryan shout out to team Ryan and for all the people
that have sent me the Ryan hangout videos thank you I was already aware that was pretty fun yeah
yeah just a bunch of Ryan best part is the name tags all saying right honestly that was that was
the kicker for me I so I here I've listened to three I've listened I've listened and consumed
probably a half dozen bits of preview content on the Bears okay and
it is disgusting the amount
of two of two of these sources acted as if this was a positive outcome last year for the Bears
acted as if they are on the path to building a franchise because everything is smart and makes
sense and I I'm honestly I'm confused at that statement because what is smart about trading a
first round pick for Chase Claypool no that's not smart what is it I don't want to jump ahead but
so I look at last year and I wonder why everyone is so [ __ ] optimistic I know I'm a
hater and
I even thought I was going to be high on them Sean I went back early win totals I leaned over on
the Bears the the and the DJ more trade for them I thought was a good trade I thought they got a
a decent haul there but again to your point that offsets that really bad Chase Claypool trick
the whole also includes picks next year yeah so so like those I think I think it's a good
move for the franchise overall yes but again defense was winning the draft can help you this
[ __ ] like
winning the draft and getting picks for next year doesn't help you this year defense
was 32 in EPA per play by like a wide margin so don't worry they signed a couple linebackers John
shout out I love admin I like I like TJ Edwards he was fun on the Eagles team he's a solid reliable
tackler he's a he's a glue guy that you maybe put in your foundation he's not like a beam that you
can he's he isn't the foundation right he's the he's like the guy that glues together a couple
of things at the f
oundation to me it all comes down to the defense I do think their passing
gets slightly better because it just has to what but I don't know if I don't know if um that's
everyone's argument is they were so bad like they were so close to the bottom they were so close to
the limit of what's possible they have to bounce back right they have to bounce back why wouldn't
they bounce back well highlight what their big problems were last year I think receiver Talent
so I I agree with you I think upg
rade getting DJ more in there I think that's gonna be helpful
and I think having some consistency with Justin Fields another year in the system that kind of
stuff now I know if loose we like I don't think it's gonna go crazy I don't think it's going to
be better than last year I think they're gonna have more than two games where they pass for 200
yards that's my prediction because Justin Fields is going to process things faster holds the ball
longer than any quarterback in the league like l
ast year I liked him as like an outside long shot
MVP bet because I like last year was supposed to hear where you make jump uh Ryan to your point
processing we saw with Jalen hurts we didn't see it with Justin fields we just did I hate that I
mean I like his electric playmaking and I think insane [ __ ] plays where you go oh my God look
at that as a guy who started him DFS fantasy a bunch of times and he has I still think he has a
ton of fantasy value because this defense doesn't seem like
it's done much of anything to get
way better like they they haven't really adjust um how bad they were at getting pressure they
haven't really adjusted getting like a top tier like why not roll the dice and you know try and
get Bradbury or Darius Slay if the Eagles like toss them a ton of cash maybe they're maybe
their approach is almost too long term but I I don't think they did much of anything I mean
every Advanced defensive metric they're 29th or Worse except they were 24th an explosive
run
defense but you could argue like you're not gonna have explosive runs when you're running
out the clock against this Bears team so so they're past defense yeah Dreadful it's like
again off the charts so it's got to bounce back what if it only bounces back to 31st they
couldn't rush the passer last year so let's just say thesis right like they couldn't Rush the rush
the passer and they didn't have a great secondary they literally did nothing to address the
secondary so again it's like
and I hate like we're to work right now like this is this has
got to feel like we're water bordering J Mark as he sits back he's waiting in the in the waiting
room just chomping at the beach can't wait to go toe-to-toe with our points he can he he can't he
can't see it but he can smell the steaming [ __ ] I'm taking on the Bears all right Ryan let's uh
enough enough torture for Justin AKA Jay mark hey you know what would be torture for me
personally as a gambler having an amazing season pic
king NFL games against the spread and not being
in the Circa Millions contest are you kidding me but imagine just like dominating your work pool
and you win 300 oh wow that's fun I could have won millions and millions of dollars they're
giving away 14 million dollars over at Circus Sports sir chameleons contesting AKA picking five
games against the thread search Survivor you guys know how to win an NFL Survivor contest we're
gonna do a another NFL Survivor episode where we walk through the
grid take down the NFL Survivor
again uh it's so much fun to get involved in these contests and it's easy all you do between now
and uh when sign up date closes which is right around uh opening kickoff there NFL Sunday perfect
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there August 24th to the 26th AKA ultimate sign up weekend just head over to circusports.com
to get all the details circusports.com joining us on the line you know him fr
om
the old fashioned football fantasy podcast on the sports gambling podcast Network Mr
justinmark AKA J Mark what's happening Justin what's up guys I don't I don't have like a uh you heard a lot of negativity coming out of
uh Kramer and I while we were previewing the Bears I don't think when we actually walk through
the schedule I don't think I'm gonna be quite as negative as Kramer but I'll admit like you know
from our fellow prognosticators in the sports gambling space to to Bears fan uh
in general
excitement seems to be pretty high so give us the optimism surrounding the Bears this season
so I think what really happened is I told you guys that I was going to take a drink of whiskey
to represent old-fashioned football every time either Kramer blatantly dissed the Bears or you
brought up the Eagles to be fair you only brought up the Eagles once but yes yeah yeah well I did
mention the Bradbury slay maybe I will say I do have a note I do have a note here that says once
agai
n people unfairly comparing quarterback to Jalen hurts for some [ __ ] reason it's true
I mean because Jalen hurts has improved every year why am I defending Jalen hurt did we did you
see Improvement in the passing game from Justin Fields last season I mean it was really hard
to see improvement with that offensive line and the receivers everybody leaves out the fact that
those receivers couldn't get open to save their lives Chase Claypool couldn't learn the offense
and get on the same page
Darnell Mooney is not a number one wide receiver I like Darnell Mooney as
a wide receiver too or a slot guy but he is not a lead receiver on a team that's what I loved about
bringing DJ Moore in I think one of the reasons and I've made the same comparison to Jalen hurts
or Josh Allen what helped them Elevate their game the team started building around him Josh Allen
got Stephon Diggs Jalen hurts to get AJ Brown and look at what he did now I'm not saying Fields is
going to make that big of a
jump but I think it's definitely going to help when you have a guy like
DJ Moore and then they did a lot on the offensive line I think that kind of gets undersold I know
people kind of bitched about the Darnell Wright pick but I mean a guy named Will Anderson I don't
know if you guys have heard of him said that garno Wright was the best tackle he had to face so I
think people under sell his talent he was my top tackle Taco struggle yeah Darnell right I think
was a good pick I still think A
ndrew Thomas sucked his first year yeah yeah and I still think you
know ETR has their offensive line ranked 26. I think they I think they are better than that but
I do think the offensive line probably leans more towards being a a running team uh and and and
better at the Run block you know the Kramer's Point even if they are good tackles sometimes
they do struggle with pass protection early on in their career and I think if the Bears are
to have success you gotta lean on that running game
and lean on the design run stuff with Justin
Fields Ryan we're talking draft picks let's let's bring up and real quick worth noting because I I
will say this that I I don't know if it was PFF or somewhere else but Justin Fields also let he led
the league in elusiveness when it came to eluding sacks but he also led the league in creating sacks
does hold on to them AKA running in into a set like getting himself into a sack where the tackle
wasn't at fault it's just that Justin Fields created
it so you know again it's it's a mental I
feel like the with Fields it's all about the mind if the mind can take a step forward I agree the
body's amazing I mean he's a god he's a he's a I mean it's getting real excited all right just
watching a quarterback run over another man is yeah something it's hard to deny as a man watching
another man just completely run over a man that that's impressive so so a couple of the stuff
we've already hit on TJ Edwards Tremaine Edmonds uh trying to seal u
p the the defense there did
bring in uh Bobby tonyon sneaky uh pick up there for an anytime touchdown or first touchdown paid
a lot of money to Cole come at who by the way his sister is dating lucasfan NASA pack or we learned
that on the Packers on the Packers preview uh uh Deonte Foreman kind of filling in for losing
like him uh David Montgomery yeah I I I do I but also I didn't I thought David Montgomery was
solid so maybe slight upgrade there did lose uh Riley Reef I don't know our offen
sive tackle Riley
Reef I don't know if that's a huge loss for them uh brought in uh girvin Dexter defense offensive
tackle maybe he pops and and um and does something there for the defensive front seven as well as the
Darnell right pickup but what as far as uh guys you brought in or guys you got rid of who's most
exciting for you uh Justin well I think for key departures you can probably narrow it down to two
names David Montgomery and Nicholas Morrow right everybody else is like were they
really making a
difference um as far as we brought in I loved a lot of the uh Acquisitions we made starting with
the linebackers Edmunds and Edwards um Eber flu says said like yeah we agree that our pass rush
was not good last year and maybe we didn't get a game-changing defensive end but we're going
to build this linebacking core in this defense around the linebackers and cornerbacks doing their
job which creates a pass rush he's had experience building it that way before and that's what h
e's
going to focus on um I love taking Roshan Johnson uh that Darnell Wright one I already talked
about and then Dexter and Zach Pickens I think those guys are going to be wreckers in the uh the
middle of the line there as far as stopping the run something we really struggled with and then
just for just to switch a little bit to Fantasy Football Tyler Scott is a name that I'm getting
very late who I think they're going to have him run the ball in sweeps they're going to have him
line up at
the slot he's a very Speedy guy that is burning everybody that was a slot I will say
I did I I uh I drafted my first Tyler Skye Justin Fields team and I have been reading it of course
you know I'm grinding that training camp tape Sean well and he's been showing up and speaking of uh
fantasy obviously everyone should subscribe to old-fashioned football talking fantasy football
and whiskey uh with Justin and his wife Miranda now um Roshan Johnson I know Andrew Rob from the
fantasy football p
odcast has been pounding the table for him I still think uh Khalil Herbert kind
of uh undervalued maybe lost in the shuffle what do you make of the the running back situation and
they brought in the antiform and so obviously that hurts Cleo Herbert a little bit there but what
do you make uh of the running back situation uh for the Bears specifically for fantasy yeah
fantasy wise I'm not as high on them because I do think everybody's gonna get a touch right I
mean you're gonna have Roshan yo
u're going to have Khalil you're going to have foreman and not
to mention Fields is going to take a lot of those um rushing yards and rushing touchdowns so
fantasy wise if you can get them late at Great Value that's that's awesome but Roshan's been
going a little bit too high for me personally yeah it does seem like it's a classic oh this
guy's a rookie he's flashing and again people forget with rookie running backs you have to
be able to pass protect to get on the field and sometimes that
takes them a little bit to figure
out smart front offices should be taking a new running back every year in the late rounds and so
when the fantasy Community Hypes them up because of some quality he has I mean again always a red
flag when you didn't really even play in college a time because you were behind Bichon Robinson but
yeah I mean I to me Khalil Herbert has shown us he has an ability to find blocks he did it in college
too at Virginia Tech when I when I watched him and it was he jus
t has that Knack and deonta Foreman
when he's been healthy he's he's hard for him to stay healthy but when he's healthy he was an elite
Prospect if I'm not mistaken he was a five star at Texas uh and like he his his career has just been
shattered with injuries but man he he was really good for that Panthers team last year so I I would
I would be in fairness I wouldn't blocking o-line I think foreman and Herbert who Herbert's good at
like yards after contact uh whatever that stat was like ya
rds after initial contact he was right up
there top of the league so I I do think they're going to be able to run the ball you get that play
action going I think there is some optimism for the offense to me the defense they did some stuff
but I still think uh kind of behind the eight ball overall uh TJ in the chat again uh Packer fan
bringing a lot of notes for the Bears preview but have you uh Justin I'm assuming you saw this
as a Bears fan offensive tackle Darnell Wright accidentally prep
ared for the uh conditioning
test for ride receivers so he came in in like amazing shape he instead of doing they must
have said a shock uh that had uh all like o-line conditioning receiver conditioning just did the
receiver because something my daughter would do yeah you saw that you saw that story Justin I did
and Coach flu said that he didn't break a sweat doing the offensive line conditions he prepped for
the receivers so it might be a little chance any chance they're tipping their hand
there uh with
some possible tackle eligible place maybe maybe that's a good idea I hadn't thought about that but
for sure and uh always fresh never soggy not to bury the lead here and jump right to gambling but
said Bears on the list of a rush touchdown each game at plus seven thousand I've already taken
that bet highly recommend it they had 11 11 games out of 17 last year six of the last nine and this
team is built to run that's what they're gonna do run it down your throat so all right I
assume
you're scribing that Sean right yeah because again these are I'm not gonna say a sucker bet because
it's 70 to one so we know what we're getting into because it's essentially a 17 game parlor 17
like parlay they're always going to get one rushing touchdown right Justin no this just means
it feels like it you know what this is this is me this is showing I like it this is showing that
our audience is reading all the fine print yeah you're getting in the book and you're and you're
lik
e just like water you're finding all the Deep cracks to look into so so kind of before we hop
into the schedule here a couple notes uh 13 days net rest difference uh positive there for the
Bears second largest in the league six easiest schedule via uh just the win total so I do think I
do think so that I think there is some regression stuff and you would expect that with the three win
team I do think the schedule is more favorable the issue is it feels like it's priced into the number
right
like um Chicago is one of six teams since 2000 with an over under win total of four and a
half wins more perfect than they won the prior year and only two of those six teams went over now
in most of those situations where they there was a four and a half win difference it was because of
a a major QB injury but let's okay yeah so I have that nugget actually like that like there's
only been I think three instances of this so the last uh 20 years that involved this type
of adjustment without
like you're describing a critical change to quarterback whether brand new
quarterback or injury of starting quarterback so that's interesting too because not only that but
we're basically getting the whole like the whole staff everything there's actual continuity here uh
which is generally a little bit uh different when you see this kind of reaction I think I don't know
I guess again like I will con I will concede that the Bears did upgrade their uh their offensive
situation has been upgrad
ed yeah whether or not the processor can take advantage of it that's
another question but what I will also say is they did not upgrade their ability to to get after
the quarterback only 20 sacks last year and they did not upgrade their secondary and so um oh what
what the hell is that how can you say that we got Tyrique Stevenson in the second round out of Miami
there you go do what do you what do you expect out of tyreik Stevenson uh Justin I actually think
they're he's gonna win that um c
ornerback two job um they're going to be able to move Kyler
Gordon back into kind of a the Nickelback which he excels better at so I mean to me I think that
we did improve that that defensive backfield and um yeah I mean of course I am a a hopeful fan
I've gone to bat for guys like uh Mitch trubisky Jay Cutler I've argued so much over okay Cutler um
so so take it for what it's worth but you know uh yeah I'm always a hopeful fan I like it all right
uh any other any other big nuggets you want
to get in before we start walking through this division
I just think people are kind of underselling the the improvements they did make I know it's not
huge names I get it but I think they they have the right process and Coach flus really seems
like a guy that the players love to play for and I think that's important saying coach flues
does sound very intimate well and and Matt Eber flew I I do think has a good coach flus does have
a good situation for coach of the year although the market
the market agrees because he's second
in the odds for Coach of the Year at 11-1 I don't think there's a ton of value there but again when
you only win three games the previous year to come up to eight wins or nine wins that's that's coach
of the uh the year material right there the win total set at seven and a half make playoffs
plus 172. Miss playoffs minus 190 division four to one conference 30-1 Super Bowl 60 to 1.
Kramer Let's uh let's start walking let's start talking schedule for the
Chicago Bears did
have better Super Bowl odds than the Giants what are we they're right neck and neck and yeah
what's the chats pointing out they did go 0-6 in the division last year yeah which but uh you
mentioned the netrest stuff they do actually have three divisional games with a uh three day
or more uh rest Advantage so maybe they can solve that and I I did before we started I did one last
thing they had four games last year where they had the ball with less than three minutes down
o
nly one score and they all ended in turnovers so you know some of the one score luck they shot
themselves in the deck that that's my uh just put tying a bow on that thesis more more hate towards
the regression Army all right Bears 2023 new year not looking in the windshield anymore Sean no or
sorry not looking in the rear view looking in the windshield Packers to open the season imagine
being a bearish fan and you're feeling good and then you see that you're playing points against
the pack
Road favorite you just have to you have to have like a nightmare reaction nothing oh no
wait no no they're at home they're at home oh yeah you're right but to be favored against the
Packers that's got a little shocking then you go right into a back-to-back Road spot well and this
is this is when you don't want to play the bucks right in Florida at bucks not Prime Time be muggy
uh also tremendous strip clubs down there uh not sure how Justin feels feels about those types of
establishments th
en you have at Chiefs obviously a tough spot there although Chiefs did lose to the
Colts early in the season last year with Maddie Ice uh then you have the Broncos at home good to
catch the Broncos at home and not on the road look you're I guess their favorite in two of these
games the Bears as a road favorite and Tampa does not strike me as the correct situation that's a
tough game that's a tough game I I I you know what I don't want to say Jay Mark how are you feeling
about this first fou
r well I will say if uh with Rogers being gone if the Packers come into town
to uh open the season and we lose it's going to be probably the most heartbreaking thing because
the Bears are really feeling like this is ours now this Bear's package get rid of Aaron Rodgers
and now and then lose to Jordan love Jordan love my pressure then that feels like a tremendous
amount of pressure tremendous how many wins well it's a I mean even you know even talking
about in the Packers preview too it is i
nteresting because the Packers what's their weakness is
rushing defense and that's the thing the the Bears arguably do the best on their team so they
should win it should be a good game I could you know I had trouble uh picking it I think with the
Packers preview as well but what do you got them going here uh Justin you can't you can't say three
in one can you I want to because I think they can take the Broncos I think the Bucks are still going
to be putting it together whether that's Baker
or Kyle Trask so I actually like them to win that
whether it's hot or not um lose to the Chiefs obviously that Broncos game is the one that I'm
kind of on the fence but new coaching staff I'm I don't know I'm gonna go two and two I think
they lose to the Chiefs and Broncos back to back I mean I know I know the Packers gave up a lot
of yards on the ground but the Packers owned the Bears until otherwise stated and then you also
have uh bucks for a pretty good pass defense I think that's just
a bad spot too the the the
the Chiefs are probably the worst defense when you this is a tough what one in three can they
beat the Broncos uh yeah I think that's actually a good time to play the Broncos one and three
okay you got them going one and three Jay Mark you said two and two right yep and I'll take
a drink for the hate on the Bears air Kramer today you're gonna play Jay Mark you're gonna put
Jay Mark in a coma here hopefully you don't have a lot of plans this afternoon can I go two
and
two with this Bears team they started out two and one last year Ryan there was some excitement
uh early they did uh do me a massive favor by beating the 49ers at seven point home dogs that
was beautiful and that rainy rainy game maybe we get some weather here to help them out can I
say they win two games two and two TJ saying oh and four noted Packers Fan always fresh
never soggy two and two little ziti Mills one and three with me I'll go I'll go two and
two okay yeah give me two and
two all right at oh man so TJ reminding us he brought this up on
the the show uh with the Packers preview but uh the Bears scored 29 total points against the
Packers last year worth noting yeah a lot of good nuggets unfortunately Aaron Rodgers not not
a great uh player last year all right then we uh moving along in the schedule we're at Commander
which there is there seems to be a decent amount of steam um and I'm Gonna Save all the receipts
of people who came after me but it seems like the
Redskins are back in play 50-1 the odds have been
taken off the board who knows but at commanders on Thursday night Vikings at home Raiders at home
and then you have the at Chargers on Sunday Night Football which is the first leg of a back-to-back
Road spot obviously a road Thursday night game is never good no no and and another defense that
projects to be like they project to be pretty good on both sides of the ball like rush and
pass um you know I I just here's here's my question about t
he Bears is will they be able to
exploit defenses that are pretty bad against the pass but can can slow down the Run well and again
the Chargers their weakness is stopping the run now obviously they've done some stuff and if you
want well I mean they've tried to address it and if you if you're going to play the Chargers in Los
Angeles is the place to play I don't feel like a bears home game uh J Mark what do you have them
going here three and one three and one wow okay go ahead go ahead who
do you think they lose to I got them losing the Vikings I think
they surprised the Chargers here um I think they're gonna lose the Vikings at home
and take the Vikings when they're on the road I do think they could surprise the uh I'm with
you surprising the Chargers and I think they can beat the Raiders at home I think Thursday night is
a tough spot now maybe they pull off the Vikings game because they have extra rest and they are
at home Viking spot is a sandwich uh Vikings have Kansas C
ity week five week seven they have
San Francisco so definitely a sandwich spot for the Vikings uh I like I kind of like the angle of
taking the Bears in that spot also worth noting the Chargers game uh comes in an opportune time
for the Bears as they uh Chargers will be coming off the a stretch where they faced Dallas then
the Chiefs they face the lowly bears and then they have Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in prime time
so another bit of a relative lull for a team's schedule so honestly with
those two potential wins
and the Raiders being I guess conservatively hot trash this year every time the Raiders are uh on
the schedule thing I'm like well that's a loss did I just get myself of the three and one whoo
okay is that possible I'm I'm also sorry did you just say the lowly bears yeah the lowly the both
teams after this the lowly Raiders he's doing a sip every time I think he's finding reasons to
get that uh get that glass it's getting thirsty all right so so Ryan even as a hater
you're still
you still got him four and four through the first eight that's the thing is this is a it's a
weird team when I stretch for him I think they I think they got a little bit better I think
regression's a little bit more towards their favor I mean they could win five more games than they
did last year and just barely get over that seven and a half so the the interesting team four and
four feels about right like we're not buying too much into the hype being somewhat realistic here
Jay Mark got him five and three even even a bear's Optimus has him is stretching it to go six and
two here but what about the next quadrant run all right next quadrant we have at so again back to
back road spot here at Saints probably less home fans uh than in Los Angeles at Sofi then you
have the Panthers on Thursday Night Football that lions and wow wow two two cats does
it work for both of them I think it does and at Vikings on Monday Night Football I
I uh three Road games out of four he
re uh so essentially Four Road games and a five
game stretch heading into their week 13 by that's that's brutal that's probably gonna
be a hold on and survive I have them winning that Chargers game I'm not sure they get another
one of the road games so I'll go one and three okay one and three J Mark what are you doing here
there are three Road games in this quadrant uh but you look at the look ahead spreads I mean they're
five and a half Point dogs against the Lions I don't I don't necessar
ily agree with that line and
to that point too like I think they they match up their offense matches up good against the Lions
defense because the Lions defense has has trouble um stopping the run as well I mean you saw what
the Panthers did to them last year but then on the flip side I do think the Bears defense on the road
in Detroit they could be um Jared Goff might have some fantasy points there that week so Detroit
is the the week the play Detroit is the week before Thanksgiving worth
noting but they will be
coming off a Thursday night game so mini by again there's some rest Edge stuff here for them but I
think those are just three tough road games for them so you got them one and three there Ryan
one and three okay um I'm going back and forth here between two and two and one and three I'll
hear Jay Mark's uh case before I make my decision yeah I'm gonna take two and two I like them to
take both division games I mean Kirk Cousins Monday night we know that's right that's
right
come on I don't care if it's in Minnesota um I think the Vikings I think Vikings will beat us at
home and we'll beat them on the road I think we're gonna split with them and the Lions so um two and
two here that's classic uh division knowledge Ryan well they didn't split last year but I'm kind
of I'm with James I didn't split anything last year I I actually I'm with jaymark I think it's uh
Packer sweep them and they split the rest okay so so now that I now that I've realized the Vikin
gs
game is in prime time I think they could win that and then I think they can beat the Panthers at
home on Thursday night you got to get that win so I'm going two and two the the obviously the
cousins prime time is it is a big swing for me yeah that's true that's a good point Kramer last
fight he's gotten better in prime time for the record all right coming up going into the last
five coming off that guy you're five and seven I'm six and six J mark seven and five kind of as
I'd predict I
feel like I went maybe went a little high in the middle section I'm starting over maybe
maybe have me be two and two in the middle section please really yeah I think so so you're you're
taking away your three we'll see how it goes you you don't have to touch it yet all right last five
lions at home again don't that should be outdoors positive situation for the Bears at Browns that's
gonna be a really tough game for them and then you have Cardinals Falcons both again two more Dome
teams comi
ng up to Chicago in the cold and then at Packers I think they lose the road games I think
they win against the Lions Kyler could be back but I I think I'll give him two there yeah I mean
two and three they're playing three Dome teams or sorry yeah three Dome teams at home in December
or late November like that is a dream scenario if you're if you're a Bears fan winnable games a
very very winnable game so you you're going three and two Kramer Falcons are more of a cold winter
weather identit
y team a lot of Alphas you said I just can't can't stop looking at Mac Hollins oh
Matt Collins is a g I was on that from day one three and two Ryan two and three two and three
okay so two and three what about you Jay Mark last five games what do you what do you think here
yeah everybody's gonna mute me for this but four and one I am not a believer in the Browns this
year at all yeah it is a good time to finish we'll have to know when to come oh sorry and DeSean
Watson obviously you know fin
ishing a touchy subject there but yeah four and one yeah what do
you what so who who's the loss to uh I was gonna say the Lions but I think I already said they
were gonna split with them so I have to switch that but uh let the loss to the Packers we'll
say the Packers Lambo that feels right all right so I'm sitting at six and six here do I go three
and two and be nine and eight on the Bears gross I'm gonna go two and three I because I don't think
they're quite I think they're I think the Be
ars are uh kids you know who uh get held back a grade
it feels like that's what happened with this Bears team right like they were supposed to make that
jump last year to get up to eight and nine that's what I predicted this is the year they get uh
jump up to eight nine get the I do like the over at seven seven and a half I don't know I guess
it's probably not my one of my favorite win totals um but I'm gonna go over eight and a half wins
Ryan at seven and ten you're on hold on under so I'm
seven and ten but you didn't switch them
the three in one strips two inches switch that to two and two okay so you're gonna be six and
eleven but then I think they uh I think they maybe I need to upgrade the end of the season
to three and two Okay so still seven and ten so I'm moving just to get back to seven that was as
optimistic as I could get okay and that's by the way Brown's backup quarterback maybe Watson
isn't the guy Josh Dobbs we love Josh Dobbs he's going to space he's throwing
the football I
I do think for me nine and eight it I would say there's ceiling for this Bears team I think
it's ten and seven you're not taking the old what do you mean you're taking the over uh yeah
I'm I'm on I'm on the over he's a smart better you sit in the office with me every day I highlighted
all the reasons why this team didn't solve their defensive whoa it's close but I do think they
get honestly it just comes down to that last final stretch those five games they could be
coming i
nto the season you know that those last five games they could have five wins even four
wins and go like they seem like a team that is going to not have a great most of the season but
those last four or five games dude I mean at home against the Falcons the Cardinals it just it just
sets them up to get over eight wins I am barely getting over obviously you like the over here uh
J Mark what about uh what about the division the conference how high are you on the Chicago Bears
team I already pl
aced a bet for them to win the division nice so you got the bears plus 400 to win
the division uh we also are all co-signing Bears getting a rush shooting touchdown every game at
70 to 1. that's a uh get me off that one really get me off that position so all right Ryan's
shorting that right as someone who's a hater do you have any sort of uh negative uh Bears bets
that you think are uh well so all right what are is there a version of this season where they
they get away from Justin fields P
J Walker is the backup because if not I I do kind of want to
look at his interception props because I do think they're gonna I I believe they want to have him
throw the ball more and I also believe that he's not going to be get getting better at throwing
the ball uh his total is at ten and a half 10 and a half interceptions but the I guess the
wonky long shot angle is purely what if he what if they do try to throw the ball a lot and he
throws the most interceptions in the League this year o
kay what's that what's that price
30 to one okay give me Justin Field's most interceptions I mean what was the stat uh you had
like let the most turnover worthy plays fourth most turnover worthy plays he really has I mean
they're not gonna replace him well and again if the defense if you don't think the defense is
improving much I think it's improved a little but teams are going to be able to score a lot
of points on the pairs well and then they're going to be playing for playing from behin
d that
obviously sets you up for a bunch of pass attempts which again why I think he's interested in fantasy
interceptions don't necessarily hurt you that much um I do like some of these fun division only bets
like division leaders now you're looking at the NFC North division leaders obviously Justin
Fields is the favorite at plus 250 which is kind of crazy that quarterback would be that so
let's say they they scale back the Justin Fields running just a little bit and let's say you know
ma
ybe Deonte Foreman gets banged up a little bit whatever but Khalil Herbert all those Advanced
stats that we liked about Khalil Herbert the Bears offensive line which is a good run blocking
line they have a decent season Herbert gets a few more carries than people think what do you think
Khalil Herbert is just to lead the NFC North right is he ten to one 60 to 1. right yeah yeah wait
Khalil Harvard makes sense yeah most rushing yards NFC north 60 to one is that because Detroit
and Green Bay
have potentially timeshares so here are the other guys Aaron Jones Madison Aaron
Jones 350 Madison 350 which again is he you know he filled in okay against for Dalvin cook but
is he going to be the Workhorse David Montgomery plus 450 AJ Dillon plus 700 Gibbs uh Jamir Gibbs
a rookie ten to one deanta Foreman's 20-1 Khalil Herbert 60-1 I get why people are lower on him
but it's 60 to 1. Herbert shouldn't have worse odds than Foreman Roshan Johnson's 100-1 what's
Fields uh he's the favorite at
plus 250. so this in this scenario running back in the division in
this scenario they they run field slightly less all the advanced stuff on Herbert comes true that
offensive line pushes people around uh but it's a fun it's a fun long shot fun little pizza bet
there what about you J Mark any other fun player props I will be giving out some Robert tanyon
anytime touchdown first touchdown uh stuff at some point this season I don't know when there's
no prices the Robert onion Market has not h
it the uh hit the books yet but do you wanna but you're
definitely gonna be firing on him the fact that he's the second tight end uh makes his price
go it's gonna be insane his first touchdown against the Packers Revenge game dude you know
coaches go out of their way to do that when foreign's gonna get a touchdown and we're gonna
cash in Kramer uh or sorry j Mark any other any other props you like uh for your Chicago
Bears yeah I'm taking over receiving yards and receiving touchdowns for co
comet um yeah
I know Kramer mentioned he got overpaid but really after this year in the next three years
they only owe him 12 mil so that's pretty easy to cut if they need to and if you really wait you
already want to cut them no I'm just because I'm just saying it's a very Team friendly contract
because they got the money this year and so he feels like he's getting paid but after this year
if things aren't working out and it looks like he's not gonna be their guy they can cut him
without
losing too much okay now what about uh what what are the price on uh those two there
the the receiving touchdowns and receiving yards um I think they're the minus 110 I last I looked
like uh how many do you know what the number is for touchdowns I think it was six and a
half okay might have been five and a half but I think it was six and a half in receiving
yards I think he was at 550. either way you're you're you're in on the coal commit train Justin
Fields MVP 18-1 are you buying me no no
Justin ah I want to say yes but no I'm not going to
um yeah I just can't I I didn't even mention it the other thing I liked that they did was
bring in PJ Walker because I think he can win new games if Fields gets hurt which we know with
these running quarterbacks they miss games yeah um much better replacement than Trevor Simeon
he fits the offense better he fits the scheme better and I think he can win you a couple games
if he has to oh boy all right he's hurting Justin Fields he's tradin
g Cole come out no we don't we
don't bet on injuries right yeah I mean Justin's a realist you know he he he dealt with that 93
million dead cap he's already looking at the future going all right that's my this deal might
not be uh great so yeah crash I I do think there is the like like I If you believe Ryan pulls
is the guy which he's had a couple questionable decisions but if you believe he's the guy it does
seem like they're they're objectively going to be a better team this year than the
y were last
year and they should be on the right path but I just don't I mean three wins the seven and
a half that should be a bigger story I'm not saying yeah no it is it is yeah well we're
making headlines here today Ryan ziti Mills um trying to find a price on them to go oh and six
in the division again the only real difference he says is DJ Morris he worth six wins Kramer where
did you get the uh League leading interception what uh what outlet that was DK okay because black
cousins is
saying he saw it as uh nine to one on um FanDuel so shop around really yeah looking
at it right now he's 30-1 to lead the league and intercept so you're saying we should we should
get down on that right now live oh that one makes I I mean again maybe they're gonna pass more maybe
maybe he's gonna he maybe he'll progress or maybe he won't I and uh the other thing you should
look for is Bears to give up the most points I don't think that I think that's still are you
adding that to your card o
fficially Ryan I I don't have a price for you so I wouldn't feel
good about putting it on there but yeah if you can find a bears to give up the most points I I
like it look at the look at they they play the Vikings and the Lions a couple there's gonna
be some NFC North shootouts this year Sean Bears will be on the wrong side of them I don't
think I can do pods with Ryan anymore sorry all right I'm rooting for you though as the hopeful
fan the one thing I can say about their defense do they
have a ton of huge names no probably not
but um coach flues said they're gonna lean even more into that cover too that almost mirrors
Lovey Smith's Edmonds is going to play the mic like erlocker did is he erlocker no he's not
but uh Edwards is going to play the will and I just think there's a scenario where they fit into
that bend don't break I think teams are going to be able to put up a lot of yards but inside that
20 they're really going to crack down on them um again that's the the hope
ful fan coming at you but
just don't break that's right I like it reading into it like I just feel like they're going to
be able to mirror that a little bit it's not the same team they don't have the same Playmakers but
those teams that Brian Urlacher was on they didn't have any like dominant pass rushers either there
but they were still a really good defense for the record I was a massive Lance Springs guy I can be
a bearish fan when they don't Peanut Tillman great great guy as well uh Gre
at Bear all right time
for everyone's favorite part of the show where we announce our MLD AKA most likely D gen AKA
a hypothetical player we might think uh we'll get busted for gambling on the NFL while being
in the NFL Ryan do you want to start I'm happy to start okay who do you hope I don't take anyone
all right because not if you pick not only is this guy we already discussed them he was a okay not
on my list topic of situation where he was part of a bad trade ooh he goes by an amazing n
ickname
mapletron love that name and if you remember if you remember last year there was a moment it might
have been two years ago where he was celebrating a victory he might have been his first touchdown
I don't know what it was but he was celebrating a victory with his teammates and Steelers and I
believe it was um one of the grown ass men on the defensive line uh was passing around lippers and
he threw in a Lipper for the first time so he's willing to try new things while being interview
ed
by the reporters that he kind of was like this is some loud [ __ ] guys I need some space I might
throw up here it's a great Club so if you're willing to try that in a locker room with cameras
rolling you're influenceable by your teammates well I have a feeling this is a team based
in Chicago gambling's legal commonplace Chase Claypool is gonna find him himself into a a dicey
situation here's the problem Chase Claypool also dumb enough we thought we highlighted this right
he's he's all
he he took a Lipper that he had never tried before with live cameras rolling and
so all influenceable also dumb how do you not know as a grown man who played football your whole life
that that [ __ ] will [ __ ] you up it'll put you on your head and you took an offensive a defensive
lineman sized wad into your lip so I'm going off of purely judging this book by that one cover I'm
gonna say Chase not only that but for receivers it could be a good move I mean Calvin Ridley is
coming back ever
yone's thinking of how sexy he looks wide receivers don't go out of style all of
a sudden you get a bigger deal yeah so there's no wear and tear in your legs get in a couple parlays
yeah call it a vacation come back be the sexy girl uh Justin uh first off what what can people
expect from the old-fashioned uh football podcast what can they expect when they subscribe
to that assuming they haven't already subscribed yeah we're talking fantasy football year round in
the off season we get preppe
d for auction drafts and then during the season we do Waiver Wires and
then throughout all year we're drinking whiskey doing whiskey reviews we've had uh we've had
distillers on to kind of talk about their process um we've had distillers on talking about
their favorite football team and we were running a listener league and one of the
distillers we had on from Keeper's heart she's actually going to be in the league because
she's in an all-women's fantasy football league and wanted to wanted
to try auction leagues out so
um yes come for the football stay for the whiskey who are you nominating for MLD here well Kramer
stole mine oh that's okay you should have let the guests go first that's okay I was also going
to add you know he's in France doing his fashion shows this guy that likes the look at me type of
things yeah yeah that might even buy into that more um so just as a backup I was gonna say Cole
come at because he got paid might as well spend some of that cash dating the
and his sister's
dating a packer yeah or third string quarterback Nathan Peterman so that now now I'm going to stop
you right there because I am pounding the table for Nathan Peterman to be the MLD for the
Chicago Bears how do these guys get busted right for gambling outlier Behavior what is
the most outlier of outlier Behavior then by throwing five interceptions in one half of a
football game if that isn't a red flag that the fix is in that you might be partaking in
something uh Nathan Pe
terman all in on him again I'm La I've watched uh the highlights or
lowlights of this five interception performance it's in one half the fact that they kept him
in for that for that entire half was cruel um but I I if you tried to throw five
interceptions intentionally you would it would be tough to do a better job than what
another moment where the NFL was trying to hold Tyrod Taylor down yeah exactly yeah Oh and next
they're gonna stab him with a needle yeah so they can give Justin Herber
t a shot free time yeah
lots of questions here so Nathan Peterman is of course my MLB uh recapping the bets Kramer's
got him going seven and ten I'm eight nine J Mark 11 and 6. I like Khalil Herbert to lead
the NFC North uh in Russian at 60-1 that's a fun long shot uh Rush touchdown every game 70-1 uh
me and Jay Mark are on that we're both over on on the over seven and a half Kramer obviously on the
under also throwing out Fields most interceptions 30-1 for Kramer and jmark likes the over o
n uh
receiving touchdowns and yards for Cole Co met anything else to add no that's got one more thing
one more thing to add so these fantasy football sites such as sleeper and whatnot they're a little
like the books where they're predicting how things are going to be right Justin Fields is currently
the fourth projected quarterback as far as points um so read into that as you will but
I think they're expecting not only for him to run as well but also pass a
little bit more and have success
there uh the fantasy community's high on Justin
Fields just like they were high on Trey Lance just like they'll be high on the next
guy that well I mean Anthony Richardson I was never high on Trey lands just for the
record this fantasy Community was not Fields like that that was the perfect storm
right horrible defense and willingness to not give a [ __ ] yep that's what you need that's all
you need hey make sure you give Jay Mark a follow on Twitter at jmark football love that he's got
f
ootball right there in the name subscribe to the old fashioned football podcast whiskey fantasy
what more could you want of course uh subscribe to our podcast if you haven't already toss this
nice five star rating review uh sign up for our patreon sportsgaming packets.com patreon do your
part in the war against corporate gambling thank you for participating in the sports gaming
podcast for the sports gaming packet some Sean stacking the money green and he's Ryan
it is August which means dra
ft day is almost here couple weeks August 17th 24 hours Jay Mark
will be there check it out Kramer let it ride [Music] no no no no no no no
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