the truck series and the cup series all head to Thunder Valley this weekend we get you ready from a betting perspective next on the NASCAR betting preview [Music] show [Music] [Music] what is up everybody Welcome to the NASCAR betting preview show see so many uh people filing in already really looking forward to tonight bringing back a few things uh you'll see some changes over here on the uh uh outline we're going to make sure things are highlighted so you can see what topics we're talking abou
t so many people coming in now uh on YouTube let us know where you at thanks for stopping by make sure you subscribe to in between media helps them out they're trying to get to a th subscribers so we can do a whole bunch of different things uh here with you you guys as we do the show each and every week we're streaming live right now on X on my DK Yore and the NASCAR betting preview show at NASCAR BPS so make sure you're following along watching there as well and uh if you're gonna join us from
The Listener segment later on which we're bringing back which was a popular demand and we were trying to figure out ways to do it the only way to do it is through here I'll send out a link about uh 8:40 40 minutes into the show or so and we'll get your comments and questions if there are any so let's do this as we get ready to go into Bristol I want to welcome on the panel if this is your first time we got a couple guys here tonight and I'm really excited to talk with so Phil the full tank with
Phil podcast Phil how are you doing and how are you feeling going into Bristol I'm feeling uh pretty good you know the West Coast Swing treated us well on the podcast with the the you know cards that we had out there and um you know feeling like we have some some money to burn looking at theard um need to find my way through uh we put the podcast out earlier and kind of talk through some bets so I think now after being able to do that uh I feel better and I'm excited to talk a lot about that stu
ff with you guys here tonight and everybody uh in the comment section so uh yeah I'm really excited so Phil dropped his podcast here this afternoon and I haven't got to listen to it yet but I'm looking forward to it so make sure you go uh and download the full tank with Phil podcast wherever you get your podcast next going to welcome on our guy Ryan Stevens CEO creator of Truth performance ranks win the.info Ryan was a great weekend for you and your subscribers how has everything been for you so
far midweek heading into Bristol oh it's going great I mean coming off a week like that Greg crushed it uh my beding card crushed I mean we were up I think I was up over 17 units Greg up over 12 or 13 it was just pretty massive it was cool too to be on the show last week and you said you know what's the headline gonna read Monday morning and I said Christopher Bell finally wins at Phoenix and it's just cool that it came true so and plus all the other Christopher Bell bets we had so that was tha
t was fun um you know ready to get into Bristol I think we have a completely different type of race this week I mean last week I thought was very predictable this week I think the exact opposite so uh I can't wait to hear what all three of you have to say uh I I think we're all going to be on a couple different things so it'll be it'll be fun to talk through it that's what makes this show so much fun is everybody gets to say what their opinions are and what their process is seeing so many people
file in from different states welcome if this is your first time thank you for joining us uh next guy and our guest this evening a a recurring guest of the show if you listened last year uh but Jim sonis so Jim is the managing editor of digital media at Fan duel research Jim I know you do so much in the community you do so much when it comes to betting for all types of sports but when it comes to NASCAR how's the year been for you uh mixed um we were talking before the show and like you know cu
ps been fine especially the past two weeks I don't tend to do great on super Speedways so that wasn't like my favorite way to start the year despite the fact that races were fun but like Xfinity has been bad um so I am grateful for an off week ready to run it back atota next week but like it's been just dumb stuff happening at the end of races so I am so thankful to have one week without xinity to make me just frustrated on a Saturday well it is uh I I think it's going to get better like you sai
d good to have a week off reset get back into it uh like I said I mean you you're doing stuff for all sorts of sports so it's never a dull moment for you um so glad to have you back on the show and looking forward to diving into some things you're going to have to say tonight so let's do this let's go into rapid fires you see it light up on the uh the left hand side there which is kind of cool so I'm going to ask these guys a couple questions we're going to go through it and and then we're going
to into some of these markets that you all are talking about so when it comes to Rapid Fire Phil I'm going to start with you first better finish on Sunday John Hunter neek or Carson josar oh man um com out of the G I did some research on neemach for a head-to-head that talk about on the podcast but um I think between so it was a different driver um I think I would go with hos ofar you know he does have some experience here I think he finished like 11th or something um last year so and you know
we know that he's pretty solid u in the trucks apples to oranges but still um I think that he's got some stuff that he could build off of I I also think that his equipment might be um a little bit better and you know Neema Che uh I like him to win that one matchup that I won't name his uh competitor but um you know josar I think is actually going to be if you look at where he's matched up with some people like he's matched up with a couple guys who are um better competition um so I think the boo
ks have them a little bit better as well so I'll go with josar well I brought up that name because hos ofar was in the 42 car last year at this track now John Hunter n so I just wanted to gauge uh your your opinions there Ryan I'm going to turn to you next we've had four different winners in four weeks now will we see a fifth different winner on Sunday yes and we'll talk more about that later that's great that's what that that's good that's what I was hoping uh to hear all right so Jim I'm going
to go to you best stat you came across when researching this weekend's race oh boy um it has been usually that one nugget 530 something days since Chase Elliott's last win it is going to get to about 5:36 on Sunday and then end there okay so there you go I like that good stats uh right there good numbers uh all right I'm going to go back to you Phil uh we've had three drivers finished top five here since 2022 now this is just on concrete in the Gen 7 era can you name all five or can you name al
l three wait can you restate the problem here for me Alex I can yes you didn't understand the first time that was didn't you hit me with three drivers all right all right three drivers have finished top five on concrete in the Gen 7 era at Bristol since 2022 can you name them uh Kyle Larson Denny Hamlin and I don't know I I I don't know Bell oh see Bell was I wrong with hlin and uh I I don't think so no I actually just lost my notes to be honest I just lost my notes from where it was so it's who
L anyway points don't matter is I just lost it I I just hit delete all right Ryan I'm gonna go to you biggest lesson you've learned this betting season thus far the well I mean it's a continuing a continual lesson that I try to teach myself to to just be patient so I thought I would be this week too I'm in for like three units already but still i' be be patient wait for the speed I think especially on weeks like last week where it's it's more predictable once you see the speed and and they have
like a long practice like that I know I know we don't typically do that but on a track where you think you can really dial in on the speed and then maybe hit some numbers afterwards uh we did really well placing some bets after practice last week so be be patient I guess was the fifth 50 minutes uh so we got extra time obviously last week having the practice and having all the cars together did that help you or hurt you I thought it helped we had our practice model had Chris Bell like Martin Tr
uex links ahead with New Hampshire so it was like that type of Gap so we loved Bell I mean we I already had him bet 12 to1 early in the week but then you know play some other things after and you know we we did well so I I asked that question because I see a lot of chatter on Twitter hey I have an edge whenever we have the two group groups and that's where people want to stay I I personally like the one group like give me a 50-minute practice session everybody don't have to worry about group a h
ad a better tire situation than Group B um so I just kind of want to get your opinion there Jim I'm gonna throw the next one to you your thoughts on RFK heading into this weekend uh annoying because the start of the race is so bad but then they gradually get better so do I judge them based on the first half of the race or the second half and because I tend to like RFK drivers especially on tracks that race like Bristol I'm inclined to trust them I'm not seeing value on them this week but um I wo
uld say annoyed is my my feelings on RFK so far what's your what's your closest comp track when you're looking at Bristol uh it's a blend because there really is no like comp I put a lot of weight in concrete um I want Nashville in there I want do in there Nashville is a very different track than than Bristol but like you hear a lot about the Way Concrete races where the optimal Groove changes which is why you see a lot of dirt guys you know like um a lot of Dirk guys run wow at at do and Bristo
l and stuff like that so I have Darlington in there Richmond a lot of weird tracks but like if you put them all in a blender it hopefully gets you to the right place that was a great answer when before the show we tell you there's no wrong answers here and then he gives you a question that has no answer but that all that guys just throw things in a blender and it's going to shoot out what you want so you were say all these tracks then uh about this uh Phil I'm going to go to you next here um fro
m a truck series perspective who's a driver you're eyeing going into Saturday so yeah I told these guys before I haven't gotten too deep into the truck stuff yet but um I want to look I don't think infinger is at a good price um but his stats here are kickass so he's 12 to1 I think I he should be longer than that for his equipment um but I'm probably going to look at I mean obviously kfb is in the so that throws things off but correct um maesi uh I think mises's numbers on you know any sort of c
omp track last year been really good and his mild experience at I mean he's got a win um two years ago at this track so he can get it done and has proven that so um I'm still on that maesi train and uh I can't get off until he wins well I I don't hate that uh truck series podcast will drop Friday morning uh everybody listening on the NASCAR betting preview Show podcast Phil and I will have you covered uh from a betting perspective there uh I'm actually going to run it back here to Ryan and say b
etter finish on Sunday mcdal or priest which side you going there oh I have a bet on priest I think we'll talk about um that's fine I'm gonna say yeah I'll say I'll say Ryan priest I think this is one of Ryan priest's best tracks all things considered um even back in Xfinity his last xinity race here he beat guys like that field was loaded had Bell Chastain reic ton of cup guys in that field and he won so I just think this is look at his Cup results too it's a lot of top 15ish type finishes um y
eah I don't know I like I like priest so I'll pick priest this week and I think McDow you know especially last week just get a little lucky on his finishes here I don't I don't know if that will continue I think uh we might be want to look you might want to look at that new package that they're under that 34 car is I mean he impressed me last week I didn't think he was going to it's not GNA be priest is not the popular answer at all I understand that no it's not but that that's why maybe I was t
rying to milk it a little bit maybe we could do a personal side bet uh you know my kids need food diapers Etc you know everything so all right yeah we will uh Phil actually I'm gonna go to you then Jim I'm GNA finish with yours uh Phil manufacturer to win this weekend it's going to be a tease obviously for what you're going to probably be looking at from an outright perspective but who's the manufacturer going to Victory Lane on Sunday Toyota Toyota Toyotas good tease good teas there and Jim for
you last question Monday morning headline reads what uh something I alluded to earlier Chase Elliott back the slump is over uh I think we're going to finally see it happen he used to dominate on concrete and been looking a bit better uh qualified well in Phoenix thought he saw show some Pace there was good in Martinsville last year which is not any in any way similar to Bristol but like I think he's getting back there I think the confidence is slowly coming back for Chase so uh Monday headline
Chase Elliott is back okay well that would be that would definitely be a storyline going into Kota next week where a lot of people are already putting uh you know him to be in Victory Lane there so let's do this let's move to ride or fade this is the head-to-head portion of the segment or the show uh I'm going to ask the guys what's their favorite head-to-head and then give an opportunity to the uh to Jim and Ryan and Phil to say are they riding that or they fading that heading into the weekend
so Phil get us kicked off what is the head to head you found on the board that is your favorite right now took me a while to find one um but I ended up landing on Caesars it was William Byron over Ryan blay um and this was really like I understand Blay's been good and we've won money on blay but um looking at these and in my stats that I'm ripping off here I haven't had a chance to like really get into them um but they've been pretty equal if you look at their resume at Bristol um just like top
fives top 10 Etc uh but it's starts to separate when we go to just the last two at Bristol last two at Dover uh I know that there were some other tracks thrown in there from some guys in the chat and and Jim here but I'm looking at that and blay has one good finish in the next gen era at that those two tracks and the others have been dismal um so obviously Byron 3 to one head-to-head there uh and then when we're just looking at like green flag speed that that's all you really need to to know I t
hink for this bet because blay just has not been fast at Bristol um where he's 28th in green flag speed he's right around Ty Dylan um whereas Byron he's he's in the top 10 he's like sixth he's fighting for for top fives he's been really good he's got a ninth and a third place finish last two finishes at Bristol so um where he's fighting for like top 10 top five maybe even the win I don't see that with blay I don't see that with Pensky uh in general this track so I'm going with Byron okay so you'
re going to go Byron over blay Ryan I'm going to give you the first floor here you riding or feden wh Phil just said uh yeah I would stick with Byron I don't I wouldn't feel good about it not one that I think I'm gonna bet but if I you know got a ride or fade I'll ride with Phil you do yeah you don't have a choice you have to pick one of those two Jim how about you Ryden or F what with what Phil put down there uh I bet blay at 16 when he was there on Monday so I got to go blay I have Byron rated
above blay in my model so if I were to head to that but I bet blay so I need I need blay to win for financial reasons that makes sense then Phil it's interesting that you called out some of those statistics where you said about Blay's kind of running back with some of those lower tier guys why is that exactly do you know was it just bad qualifying was it just they've been missing something when it comes to the concrete portion or or what were you able to find something there because my mind goe
s blay just through recent momentum I mean he's the only you know driver that made it to the final four last year that hasn't won yet but he's our points leader so what was it maybe that you know made you go from one way to the other there yeah well we saw Greg call out you know he got wrecked um in the 2022 race which y you know could explain some some things there but um I've been digging into some of the practice times I mean I don't know this specifically but looking at what I could and and
blay wasn't showing up practice um from the races that I was looking at that was referring to earlier so um as someone like I feel like this is a very you could say this every week but um the guys who have practiced well in the NextGen era here yep have done really well in the race like it's a 2 plus two equals four I get it but it's it's pretty some tracks that's not necessarily the case as as much as it has been is from what I saw in the last couple races so um that could be it but you know sl
ow speed uh green flag speed could be because you got wrecked and and yeah you couldn't really get around the track after that but I'm gonna ride with you uh I yeah I was kind of that's why I was asking that so Jim you're gonna be the only one but you said for financial reasons so we get that uh Ryan I'm GNA throw it over to you then what's the head tohe head that you found on the board that you're like this is my my favorite play right now at its current price or yeah just uh I'm just G to be u
npopular tonight cuz I'm going to take Austin Dylan minus 110 over lejoy um yeah I so I have a couple reasons uh one I just think that like I said earlier this track is a completely different Beast so I like someone that's been consistent here over their career and this is one of Austin Dylan's better tracks if not you know one of his best so um you know he's raced here uh 15 or 16 times he's finished you know 90% of the races or no he's raced here 18 times finished 90% of them um he's finished
16 of them 11 of those have been top 15s uh whatever it is about spring Bristol races too I me he's finished 6 14 15 13 10 11 he's got good finishes in the spring um lejoy you know he has one career top 20 at Bristol it is with Spire um but even like the last race you know he needed strategy to get up front let a couple laps or 40 laps is or whatever but he still couldn't finish top 20 in that race um I think his his only path is to use strategy where I think Austin Dylan could legit top 15 like
he has for so long so I'm going to take the consistency here um I think he was a dog too minus one like one of those minus 110 versus minus 121 so I'll take the minus 110 side of Austin Dylan uh and just take the consistency so that's what I'm on yeah uh you know Dylan has just had the worst year possible and Le Joy after his bad break last week so when you look at it it's kind of like oh this kind of want to bite your tongue a little bit but uh Jim what about you you you're riding or fading uh
the Dyan side there what Ryan was saying yeah I'll pretty happily ride with that definitely on board um I agree with the the thoughts on lejoy I think that I'm okay being high on Carson hos ofar this week but that's more so because hos ofar the driver versus Spire as a team Spire has been great but um I need to see a bit more from Le jooy at like tracks that are somewhat similar uh before I am willing to bet him over Dylan so I'll take Dylan there okay how about you Phil well uh I'll be the odd
man out I had talked about this one um and I wanted Dylan I said to you guys on the group chat today like I wanted Dylan because you know the last seven race last five years essentially uh on the concrete here he's five for seven top 20s and to me that's like huge when we're talking about head-to-heads with these back guys back markers uh because if you can finish top 20 you could probably you know beat out the guy you're racing but I was um kind of thrown off because as we're looking at the re
cent numbers like Ryan laid out his history and that's why I like Dylan um but recently he has not been that great here um and you know sometimes finishes don't say it all but he's one in one head-to-head at Bristol nextg and green flag speed lejy has him beat if you Loop in do it's three to one head-to-head uh in favor of lejoy like this is all [ __ ] that like I was like no like I don't want this but I had to go with it so I was steered in that direction because of recent results and then if y
ou want to go real recent holy [ __ ] like you know Austin Dylan he he can't hit the broads side of a barn uh so it's it's wild yeah that's in that's tough because I was on the Dylan Side as well and I just think when you look at tracks I I really like looking at Dylan when it comes to tracks like Martinsville Bristol as well obviously super sweed wavs we can talk about that later um you know it looks like the general public if you look at anybody that's saying anything in the chat right now it'
s it's Dylan Dylan Dylan by a billion and so I'm actually Gonna Roll with you Phil just because that team is a little bit better right now I I really feel like there's something going on with RCR ECR engines and I'm even on Kyle Bush this week so like I'm I'm still talking out of two sides of my mouth when it comes to the RCR a little bit um but lejoy the Spire I I kind of have to give an edge there's just something that is plugging that three car so bad I I don't want to touch it so Jim I'm goi
ng to throw it over to you favorite head tohe head that you found on the board right now uh so it's a cheating one um but I think it's a good like betting principle uh because it's what's called a no hold Market where you can bet both sides and profit which is not something we get very often we're getting it here because there were a lot of very smart people who bet Carson hos ofar over Josh Barry and they moved that number a lot um so if you look at B MGM right now host ofar is minus 185 and Jo
sh Barry is plus 140 if you look at FanDuel right now host ofar is minus 130 so if you take the host ofar minus 130 and Josh Barry plus 140 you could hypothetically depending on how you scale things bet both sides and profit yeah typically what you want to do with a no hold Market rather than betting both sides where you kind of cap your upside it's a better to pick a side that you like more so if you think that hos ofar Josh Barry at plus 140 is a better side take that if you think that hostar
at minus 130 is a better side take that I would probably go towards the berry plus 140 because that's a pretty generous number at a volatile track on a younger driver who in a my when you're projecting like incident rates I project a higher incident rate for younger drivers I'm gonna project a higher incident rate for Carson hos ofar so I would go towards Barry plus 140 between those two but like especially with how many books are offering very similar matchups nowadays I would always be on the
lookout for no hold markets where you can bet both sides and spin a profit depending how you scale things that is that is I like that answer a lot I really do uh Phil how or I'm actually going to throw it to Ryan first Ryan uh which side are you I mean obviously great strategy which side are you leaning with those two Barry host I think yeah real quick to add on to that too like um I would probably take the plus 140 side as well a good example that I ran into last night I was just looking at som
e things um I actually texted this to wormy I was I was just looking like uh how how volatile is the track really and I just took jgr because jgr had two cars that are five to one to win the race and um if you look at the average finish of all the cars they've they've raced of active tracks it's 28 tracks jgr is ran uh their average finish at at these tracks I'll just name three of them tadig is 26 out of 28 Daytona is dead last at 28 out of 28 Bristol's 24 out of 28 okay so it's right there wit
h the drafting tracks as far as volatility and you know the variance that you need to account for so to me Barry and josar have similar equipment um so I would take the plus 140 and just hope you're on the right side of the variant what about you Phil agreed I mean to me this is a toss up um because I feel like Barry is like somebody said it in the chat like it's his breakout race um and I don't know if I believe that but you know you gotta feel like you got to feel like steuart hos made the cho
ice to take over a varsity vehicle in the four uh for a reason and you know host ofar is just getting his wings under him so um I'll take the the plus money there and considering it it an even match up in my eyes well shout out Richard West uh on the chat who said that this is going to be Josh Barry's coming out party and worm says host of our beats Berry do with that what you want with that information there let's do this let's move on to the next topic uh let's go to the position props now and
Ryan I'm going to start with you uh when it comes to the finishing position mark those props what have you found what do you what do you like um I guess see what priest is live so you can still get this at 650 and Jim I know I don't mean to step on your toes here I saw you wrote this up as well but the Ryan priest top 10 uh was plus 750 earlier so I took that um on FanDuel it's down to 650 now I'd still take it our simulations have you know around five to one is fair okay um so I like this and
we talked about it a little bit earlier he does have one top 10 in his six here which does come out to be you know about 5 to one which we have coincidentally as as fair but uh you know three of those races he's finished top 15 he's been so close some other times um and then we talked about his last xinity race here I actually think like this is another unpopular position I think but I think Ryan priest is pretty talented uh so I don't on the right on the right track you know in the right place
and I think this is one of those places where he can Excel so you know take take it for what you will I like ran priest this week and the number at 750 is just that was stupid and I still think 650 should be taken so I guess Jim did uh is that where you were going to go yeah it is but I think it's a good bet even at 650 um I'm a little bit higher on um priest you said five to one is fair I've got I've got four to one I hate it I hate that so much because like I've want a betting PRI a lot at Sup
er Speedways at road courses and like it never works out so like he's like the Moro the cup series whereas Al marola I just know this year will be a guy bet every extend Series race and I'll just hate myself every single week PRI is that guy in cup I a 19.9% for a top 10 uh so even at plus 650 fair value there it's the same thing I talked about like I want guys who are good on concrete uh his like statement win was at Nashville in the truck series when he was in that off year when he was the shr
reserve driver won that race uh he's good on concrete all three races last year so I I think given the fact that I know equipment doesn't matter as much here but like shr does seem to be a lot better off overall this year than what they were last year I think that's encouraging we did see it at Vegas which use the same rules package as what they'll have this weekend so I mean not with Barry specifically but with the teams or sorry with a priest specifically but like yeah I think overall I think
that plus 650 for a top 10 for priest is a good bet I always love hearing what people that one driver two drivers that they're like I'm going to bet this guy and it's going to cost me so much money and I'm going to have so many headaches but I'm just I just keep going back to the well so re or priest is your your guy there what about you Phil what have you been able to find uh yeah so I know his name's been thrown around a little bit already tonight in various ways but I like Elliott for top 10
at plus 100 I was kind of surprised to see um you could get him at plus money I don't know what fair is exactly in that um maybe Ryan could help us out there but you know to me seeing that was a bit of surprise I think we're trying take advantage here of Chase and the recency bias maybe from the books a little bit um and him not doing all that well uh but just coming off of last week like he finished you know close to 20th and uh I thought he ran a really good race like you know average running
position uh top 10 so we're saying like he's back like I think he is starting to get there and I'm going with incremental success um his last seven concrete races at Bristol are are damn good I mean third and average finish he's got four top 10 in in seven starts five top 15s he's thirded in driver rating um the next gen over and uh Bristol he's got a win two top fives three top 10 he was ninth in green flag speed last season um at this racetrack at this night race so the point here that we're
getting at is like and that was in a season where he was down right he went out practice seventh finished seventh I believe um he he brought it and I think think that with all of that rest of the season behind him now and a little bit of a a swell uh in momentum I think we could see some good things from Chase so I'm not as bullish to take him for the dub but um like like some of the guys on here but I think I'll be happy with plus money for a top 10 yeah I mean I think I think I said it last we
ek or the week before like when Chase Elliott is plus money to score top 10 you know he's already got the best equipment can he get it done and uh so I see where you're going with there so let's move into the outright Market uh this is a uh topic presented by Victory Fuel drink victory.com promo code front stretch f r o n t s e t c h you'll get 10% off your order so Victory Fuel thank you very much to them Jim I'm gonna start with you so I talked about Chase uh kind of gave that one away Chase A
li 20 to1 to win this week I've got him at 5.4% to win 4.8% so I've covered that already so we'll just leave that there Chase La 20 to1 my outright if I were to do an additional one I'd go to the trucks William S wallet is 35 to one um you can't bet him in every book because he's not 18 yet um and a lot some books like say Hey We're Not Gonna offer outrights on the guy who's not 18 yet he's still 17 years old uh but he's driving for Trion which is really good equipment and like he was awesome la
st year on like really tough tracks like if you were to name off like the toughest tracks to run in truck series IRP be up there Richmond would be up there Bristol be up there he ran all those he Milwaukee too that maybe not quite as tough but like he ran tough tracks where where tires fall off and he ran really well eighth place at running position in both uh IRP and Richmond finished six they finished yeah sixth in IRP so tough tough Fields you got Kyle Busch there you got um Aus is really goo
d on this track type uh hind really good on top of the guys like maesi that Phil was talking about before so it's a really tough feel but yeah especially for a 17-year-old but uh if I'm not going and Chase 20 to1 I'll go swall 35 to1 on Saturday Okay so William swall I like it so we're getting a little truck uh talk going on here uh Phil how about you I'm going to kick it back to you uh who's going to Victory you tease the Toyota where we going okay um yeah so I guess we're having some fun throw
ing some longer numbers out there so I'll do that I won't I won't be chalky boy tonight um how about 14 to1 on BET rivers and and a couple others for Tai Gibbs um oh yeah I am impressed with Tai Gibbs I didn't think we'd be here at this point in the season already um feeling confident that over 0.5 wins would hit but here we are um and so two the two races that we consider like good for gamblers right Vegas and Phoenix uh compared to the super Speedways like he's done really well and perform wel
l not fluky like really good stuff from that team and from him um so I you know I had him down as a top 10 pick but i on this show you know for going for some of the longer odds I think 14 to1 this time of the week makes sense last year he came out hot in practice uh was fourth fastest um and if he puts himself in good position to start well and he's got a fast truck that 14-1 I can't see staying there so you know he was fast in practice fast in the race finished top five I think it was fifth um
in 2022 he had a 35th Place finish but we're we're kind of overlooking that because wasn't his full-time ride um so and then you know I I keep mentioning Dover I mean he was 13th at Dover for a rookie so this is a year where I think um we're seeing him step up and I don't have to like reach for it you know we're seeing it already so it's there so um like worm said right zero mistakes that's kind of what you need here and uh we'll see if they've got the speed to to keep him up there and see what
he can do so 14 to one this early in the week I I think that's a fun bet yeah he's uh definitely impressed me as well it's been amazing to see you know what we saw at The Clash kind of transfer all the way through the season last week Toyota was good in general so it was good to see him get a finish and as a young driver you have to get those finishes so Ryan what about you I'm gonna let you close out this Market where we going well so I I have two of them I have one guy that I wrote down a cou
ple things about but you don't really need to say much about him but I'll tail right off of what Phil was saying so if I'm gonna take a Toyota that starts with Tai that I'm taking Tyler reic all day over Ty Gibbs because I just think so it's kind of like last year like William Byron started winning all these races because speed killed it w they weren't William Byron tracks per se but then every track all of a sudden kind of became a William Byron track I think Tyler reck's on that trajectory thi
s year where now you're looking at any track and you're like oh [ __ ] this this might be a Tyler reic week and I got him 18 to one which is no longer available but I think there's probably some 14s or 15s floating around there somewhere um I wouldn't mind taking Tyler reck at that price I think this is a track too you saw like the last time they were here you could run the top pretty well um he gets to that outside Lane and he brings that Toyota speed that he's brought so far this year I think
he's going to be a problem um and then the other guy is I also got a 18 to one earlier I think that's gone now but you can still find this one I probably wouldn't re this is more just mik gut but I love Kyle Busch early in the season uh pulling double duty on a weekend at a track that he has just absolutely been better than everybody at for his career so uh this is his place this is you people can say what they want about the differences between the intermediate and short track package but this
guy's got some crazy splits between the two um he is way faster in the intermediate package now he gets to go on a track in a spring Bristol race which he's just dominated in his past he's LED 10 of those 13 races won five of them um I mean that's just that's just crazy so I think it's just like last year you know early in the year some people thought it was a little nutty I was betting Kyle Bush at Auto Club so early in the year but that's that's this is where I like him this is my Kyle bus spo
t and if he burns me fine but it's 18 to1 and I didn't put that much down on it so um yeah I'll say Kyle bus and Tyler reck are my two kind of gut plays right now yeah I like what reck's been doing Jim I think you were gonna have a comment there it looked like oh no I was uh I I looked at reic at 18 and didn't bet it in time um I can't bet it anymore with where it's currently at it's no longer a value but like I know that he hasn't been good here but like you think about the guys who are good it
's a lot of guys who are good at tracks where reic is good so I can't bet it where it's currently at but I also did give pretty long thought to betting him when he was at 18 okay okay I I know you're high on Bush on Saturday for the truck race we talked about that pre-show so uh no I know you asked some good questions about that about what our strategy might be for Kyle so let's move into the final topic here uh before we get into our DK features and then I want to hear from you guys listeners a
nd I'm going to be putting out a link here very soon uh so be on the lookout on on that and that's going to be on X uh I'm going to go to you first Phil when it comes to Best Bet best value you know Mark's favorite words there your favorite words as well where are we going what' you find or did you find nothing and maybe hey I need to bump this down uh you know to later in the week so the word value is what kills me in this one this segment always but dictionary I I'll say yeah we should look th
at up um I don't know how many people would consider this value but as far as like my favorite like most you know happy that I got this bet in okay is Chris busher for a top 10 he's minus 122 on BET Rivers he's on DraftKings minus 225 um so that's just like such a huge difference so maybe Websters definition would uh that would kind of fall under that um but you know we were talking earlier like top top 10 at Bristol right and he was the guy that I missed and and I can't believe that because you
know all of his success has come like more recently at this racetrack because his you know Career Success really all nothing to really look twice at but um in the nextg era he's got a win two top fives he's four for four in Bristol and do in the last two years that's pretty damn good and I think what we have seen with him is there obviously the one that he got the win at they took a risk right they took two tires and they were able to stay out there and and he was able to hold them back um last
last week at Phoenix they were able to you know take a a good strategy play and parlay that into a really good finish but also at Bristol we've seen him like have good speed and get solid finishes not necessarily a victory but like last year he had a good car um so I think I like having a a team a crew chief and a driver that can play both sides of that coin because what I've seen over the last few races digging into this we've seen a lot of long green flag runs to end the the race at Bristol w
hich is kind of confusing because we think of Carnage a lot um but we've got a driver who's fast enough to be up there and hold it or we've got a a driver who if they're not will take a shot and and hold it that way so top 10 uh for that minus 122 number on B Rivers I'll I'll be happy with that yeah I I like the busher play uh as well Ryan what about you where we going um I you know we just talked about reck uh I think you can still find him six to1 top Toyota on Caesars uh which we have kind of
barely fair you know in the in our model but um for everything that we just talked about uh you know I think obviously the you got to beat Denny and Bell but I mean he's he's beating Denny already and I don't think Bell is going to go back to back although really wouldn't surprise me that much but I don't know reic at six to1 when there's not that many I think competitive Toyotas to beat here you kind of you take Trux out of the situation I think going into Bristol which really helps so yeah si
x to1 reic I I like and Gibbs doesn't bother you at all no okay all right that's fair enough Jim I'm gonna throw it over to you what' you got uh yeah so at Caesar you can bet positional props uh like over under positions and I love those um uh I have five that I like week my favorite one though is Joey Lano to finish worse than uh or over 12 and a half which means that he finishes worse than that it's the 13th or worse in this race we kind of know Lego's had a weird stretch here for whatever rea
son I don't know why legano used to be a guy I bet on a lot uh he was the previous iteration of like Eric almerol in xinity where it's like oh I've got value on legano again but it's a weird situation right now and so when I put in Lego's recent history at Bristol com combined with his current form I his median finish at 15 and a half like it's usually it's not a half but like it is 15 and a half for this week and his prop here is 12 and a half so you don't usually get three spots off what they
have as that number so lagano over 12 and a half is his finishing position it's a bummer to bet against a guy who's been very kind to me throughout my betting career but I think given the way things have gone given his more recent history at Bristol some that's partly influenced by bad luck but I do think this is the proper side to be on here with legano I was think thinking about legano today and I was thinking about his championship price because obviously in the point standings where he's at
what what has that number done what has it shifted there's some books out there that even offer you know to advance into the final four yeah I don't know if any of those numbers are appetizing enough because we know this is a team just have bad luck going with two super Speedways back to back getting into a wreck last week that wasn't his fault because he got you know hit in the rear uh last week at Phoenix and you just know this team's going to get a win at some point so he's going to be knocki
ng on the door I don't know what his are off the top of my head but that came to mind you mentioned them so I was like well I'm going to throw that out there uh to the public as well so what go ahead Phil I just wanted to ask Jim like are those head-to-head or excuse me over unders available for you right now because I have been waiting for them to drop on Caesar and have not come out so if you go to like the um like are you in like the Futures tab or like the auto tab click on uh Food City 500
and then click on the title of the the race that'll bring you to like a new thing like a new menu and you click on finish position there and it's under that tab it's like super hard to find and [ __ ] I couldn't find really hard if they don't they don't have him in New York even when you go to the super secret method either so yeah okay yeah they had them last week and the week before but um yeah so I've been like dying for them to come out because I love that [ __ ] I've been I I'll DM you a li
nk I'll just DM you the URL if that helps it might not be available in PA that's what I'm that's possible yeah all right so we'll transition over to uh DK features real quick and we'll just make this quick because I want to get to some of the listener questions listen we're bringing back the listener questions this time for the first time ever on YouTube and the podcast feed this could be an utter disaster I don't know who I'm going to get or what's going to happen but we want to offer a show th
at lets you The Listener and the you know supporter of the channel to be able to comment and share your thoughts as well maybe you want to uh fade one of the guys up here maybe you're on something that we haven't talked about regardless of what it is it's your opportunity I put it in the uh the Youtube link or Channel there I put it on X as well so uh if you want to have something to say make sure you come up here and do so by clicking the link there so let's go uh DK features Jim I didn't send
these to you but they're going to be quick they're down at the bottom and it's just to get the guys to have an understand hey we get three matchups you pick whatever side you are doesn't matter what the price is necessarily we're just trying to collect uh how many are we're going to be uh winning throughout the year there's going to be punishments for the bottom two you're filling in for Mark here tonight Jim so yeah pressure's on so Phil how about you I'm going to start with you first we got th
e DK features down below we got Larson versus Hamlin you got lejoy who we talked about a little bit with Dylan talked about him as well and busher who we just got finished talking about and Elliot so what are the sides here you're going Larson Elliott start with that Larson and Elliott I'll go man I'm on Chase to finish top 10 but I I can't bet against lson so I I think Larsson could run away with it all right so we GNA go Larsson there how about Hamlin and I'm sorry how about lroy and Dylan I'm
going lroy lroy and the final one was busher and Chase which Chase I'm gon first one was supposed to be uh Hamlin that's all so you go Larson vers Hamlin was the first one Larson versus Hamlin y [ __ ] um I'll stick with Larson I can't double back because if I do then dou back SC to the way now thanks um and then the last one is Chase and busher I'll go I'll go I'll go Chase Chase okay what about you Ryan I'm going lson Dylan busher Larson Dylan busher and Jim you I'll go Larson Dylan and chase
by a hair Chase I'm gonna go busher at the end I am GNA go Larsson ljy because we talked about it earlier and uh I'm gonna go busher I feel like more consistency out of them uh with that so uh again this gives you an opportunity if you want to get interact with the show up here um we have some time we're going to get out of here at the top of the hour so it really just gives you an opportunity um you know I know there were so many things and while you know people are signing up and trying to fi
gure it all out from that angle I know there were a lot of drivers that we talked about was there anybody that you were surprised Jim I'm gonna go to you first that you were surprised we did not mention tonight maybe somebody you thought hey coming in I was gonna thinking I was going to hear this name and we didn't if for me it was Gibbs towards the end there but what was a name maybe that we did not mention I'm a bit surprised we didn't talk about Noah Gregson at all given how good he's looked
the first couple of races uh very talented driver who is with a team that is way exceeding my expectations uh so far so I don't show value on Gregson at any of his current markets um not super far off but you know it could be a situation where if Gregson doesn't do super well in qualifying we can get a better number on him I could see buying into and post post qualifying so not there yet with Gregson I think that he's like but he's on my radar for sure should the numbers slide a bit on Saturday
yeah Gregson I think is a good one shr definitely surprising in some some regard Josh Barry was fast like let's not forget that Phoenix he was fast and obviously wrecked and qualifying worked his way up through the field I couldn't believe when I saw looked at the leaderboard in the pylon and saw that he was already in 20th and then obviously got shuffled back and had a rough day but you know definitely going to be interesting I know somebody said earlier about this could be his breakout race th
ere's a lot of balls on him I think it's just kind of carrying whatever Harvick Left Behind Ryan was there a name or or something that you that caught your eye of like man I thought we were gonna talk about that and we never did um no I think we laid off the favorites just because they are such heavy favorites I mean maybe Brad Kowski could have came up in conversation uh a little bit but um or busher I mean we didn't really talk to busher I don't think until the very end there the uh head-to-he
ad session so I guess RFK in general you know um they're both very strong here uh you know I don't know the last time two times ago busher won kazlowski had the race one got a flat tire or something and uh so I don't know they're both pretty strong I know Greg is uh very high on RFK this week um amongst some other very sharp people uh in the industry so yeah RFK I think is someone to look out for I don't have my RFK jacket on I ripped it uh over the weekend unfortunately so uh yeah so over that'
s a good omen now that it's fixed I just got it fixed so hopefully it's a good omen now for this week going forward but uh Phil I want to throw something over to you uh the question was asked from our guy Ry he was asking about talking about Chast Dan and mtj those were two drivers we did not really touch on what's your outlook for any of them I know Chris Perry was talking about uh track house versus RCR as well uh when it comes to Chastain mtj what's your kind of outlook on those two this week
if any so yeah so uh I'll be quick with mtj I don't know he's an enigma to me right now um and part of me saying at the beginning of the show that I like Toyota's manufacturer bet is because of Bell because of Hamlin because of reic and Gibbs yeah but if TR X all of a sudden shows up and and owns the [ __ ] I'm I'm covered right I don't want to um lose out on that and be pissed off so that's how I'm covering for him for now and if he looks fantastic on Saturday night then maybe we'll throw thro
w an ad in but Chastain I'm kind of shining away from at the moment um hasn't been his best track in his career equipments Apple oranges a little bit but uh I know the the NextGen Over Bristol stats he looked pretty good uh but I'm just like not in love with it right now so you know for talking like a a prayer uh and a flyer on a a victory maybe I could throw a little sprinkle on just to be safe but like head-to-head matchups I was like uh I'm not I'm not digging anybody's up against um and you
know from there kind of working my way back up to the placements I was just like he's not really making making a case for himself in my book yeah well you you touched on something there and Jim I'm curious to hear from you because you have a lot of stats you have a lot of stuff at your fingertips I was going to ask like Chastain's record track record when it comes to a place like Dover Phil said it's pretty good that's what I that's what my assumption was that agree with anything you've been loo
king at with him or has he not even been on your radar uh I've I've I don't know with Chast I guess it's kind of mixed and like that's why I'm okay not getting there because he's 18 to one and when you look in that range there are other guys I'd rather bet than bet Chastain and kind of like take that leap with him uh specifically Elliott at 20 um keeps coming back to him but um I I think I have enough question marks around the Forum where it's more spotty and I can go to a guy who has a a pretty
good track record of Bristol overall so I hadn't dug into a whole lot because of that but um I think if yeah I I would need to flash a bit more to be super super intrigued by by Ross this week yeah I I think Ross it's man it's hit or miss with him he either really unloads fast then it's like you know you're you're going to have a good number and another thing when we're talking about different tracks like we're talking about last year in the fall or sorry late summer different track conditions
I looked it up the weather this Sunday is supposed to be 62 might be some rain here and there but 62 is the key number and then when you look at what they raced at in the summer it rained there as well and the temperature difference was only nine degrees and it fell to get closer to what the race day is going to be so do you weigh weather at all do you weigh any of that stuff of hey this is the track conditions from a temperature standpoint or is that kind of level enough uh it's not in my model
it probably should be because that does make a difference um it's Slicker track when it's warmer stuff like that and that's going to change the way the dynamic is but truthfully no it's not in there probably should be but it's not okay all right well add I'm trying to add things to you give you more more to do Ron how about about you do you have do you have that stuff factored in as well do you have weather and all that wind no we don't I'll do that like uh in my just in my head you know it's i
t's not a part of the model or simulations or anything like that but again it can race different I think that's what I do think is different about this race like if it is going to be different a little cooler Spring Race that's I did look at it when I you know was naming some things off about Kyle Bush and and even Austin Dyan you know I did look at some of the spring races specifically uh just to see if there was any splits you know from people who have such a long history here like Kyle Bush w
as he any better in the spring than he was in the summer and I think just that team in general and just kind of like the way his attitude is throughout the seasons now you know a grumpy old man he's just uh when things don't go his way it's it's not good and uh but I early on you know and even uh Derk Neil and his spotter was interviewed on like Toby christ.com earlier today and he even said too like that that it's not the speed it's just the mistakes so they're happy with their speed right now
and I I liked reading that um and I and like I said I like him in this package so yeah I don't know don't don't really account for the weather but I do like looking at the splits uh I will say I will say this when it comes to weather and our guy Troy who Troy I was hoping that You' get up here you were one guy that in my DMs with tons of people asking when when's The Listener questions coming back you were one guy that said when's coming back so here's your opportunity um but when it comes to co
oler weather Alex Bowman shines for whatever reason whenever all of his winds if you look at him all cooler temperatured winds it means nothing from a betting perspective means everything from a historical uh preference there so uh maybe a name is sick it is sick you're you know what Phil you are absolutely right that is sick um yeah so maybe I need to rethink some things but um yeah so then let's do this you know this obviously gives an opportunity for people if they want to ask questions here
um but we'll we'll kind of Fade Out Here is there anything else Phil that you wanted to discuss at all you know we got trucks coming up tomorrow where we're going to break everything down for a Friday release anything anything I just wanted to I just wanted to like kind of share like treating you guys as like my therapy couch here um please that's what I have had a guilty pleasure the last few weeks and I am obsessed now I'm obsessed I can't stop and it's uh average speed of the race and oh yeah
so I have been digging into this since Daytona like all year and essentially breaks down to like how many cautions is it right and shout out to Chris or Todd if they're still in here like this should be their bet uh to end each episode because you're essentially if you're CH taking the over Fest faster speed then you're hoping race stays green because uh last week we had low cautions it crushed the over this week the over is like 90 miles an hour and that equals out to be about like eight cauti
ons so you're like really hoping for cautions or against cautions I think I'm gonna go over like I I'm I'm digging the over and kind of less cautions in and around like eight cautions I think would get us the dub so I've just beens obessed until you guys tell me like dude you have to stop like you got a real problem I'm just going to keep doing it because it's it's been so fun what if you're average speed guy what if that's like your Market where like everybody turns to you and it's like hey Phi
l I got a tip here for average speed and then you just start moving the market down where it's like they're changing the RP or the miles per hour um interesting yeah that that was a newer thing that came out last week I think I could be wrong it's been out it's been out all season so uh and I've just saw I've been betting it um but anyway yeah there's a comment in the chat about sawalich I think um in the Arca car is that who we're referring to with William um he's gonna be somebody we talk abou
t tomorrow night Derek that's fact it well somebody even asked about ARA um not on my radar quite yet Mark Crystal front stretch good guy to uh connect with there I was just trying to see if ARCA had a race this weekend I guess they do if it was getting brought up um couldn't tell you what the uh the lineup is there uh and and Jim do you have anything from a a numbers perspective when it comes to ARCA please tell me you do I have a way to translate AR I have a way to translate ARCA results into
expectations for trucks and accin and cup not that we'll see a driver make the the jump there so I've I have a way to like translate that but uh it's not predictive in any way no just looking backwards just the fact that you have that is is great I was hoping maybe for a good bet would be ARCA breaks how many times is that utilized in a broadcast or how many times do we see that um has Jess love broken that model yeah is Austin Dylan in the in the field if we're talking about ARCA breaks here Je
sse love speaking of him real quick because Jesse going from ARCA dominating in ARCA with William swall who you mentioned earlier and then going directly to Xfinity that guy's the real deal I don't know about you guys that guy to me proved it maybe that's who you bet on after the break uh Jim that's who the guy you target I I feel really bad for Richard chis and and Mike Dylan cuz like they're going to have some tough decisions on their hand real fast with the way Austin Hill runs with the way j
ust Jesse Hills running got Kyle bus there they're going to be forced into some not so fun discussions because of those two it would be easier if a charter or two open up and maybe they even switch manufacturers leave you with that uh Phil I'm gonna kick it over to you I'm gonna let you close out the show from your Vantage Point how can everybody support what you got going on and everything that you're doing yeah give me a a shout on uh Twitter Instagram at full tank Phil um and yeah give the th
e podcast listen it's um full tank with Phil we do the Cup Series and um we'll be doing the trucks on the NASCAR betting preview show umbrella tomorrow night with you so um pretty entertaining race and um yeah I appreciate all the all the feedback and comments and everything this conversation helps me feel good uh this week little less uh feeling a little you know we're not in full agreement with the the panel a lot different than last week so we'll see how things work out but I appreciate for c
oming on and and everybody and I hope everyone has a good weekend and St Patrick's Day race day yeah yeah those are the best weeks when we're not all in agreement but we can talk things through and help uh the betters out there um to kind of get dialed in what about you Ryan how can everybody support what you win the race and your entire team are doing you can follow me on uh X at win the race P1 or go to win the.info um sign up um you know we have I don't know ranks DFS the Sim Center pretty mu
ch anything you could imagine if you're playing DFS or betting on Nascar or if you just want to geek out on some you know Nascar stats so uh it's been a lot of fun great Community if you jump in the Discord so I appreciate everyone watching these it's awesome to get the interaction and saw the comments all throughout the show that's that's awesome to see so Jim thank you too for coming on it's nice to finally meet you face to face so absolutely yeah Jim I know you're so busy and appreciate your
time taking time out to join us and everybody that came out to interact with us so how can everybody support what you're doing and uh everything that you're you know doing through week to week yeah so we have a daily betting show called covering the spread which is up on any podcast platform but then also I do um simulations for exity and truck series um you go to fanduel.com resesarch and those go up there win Podium top five simulations for the entire field so if you want to check a driver and
see it's just what my model says doesn't mean you have to like you you know should bet it or whatever but like you know if you want to see William swall at an aggressively High number like 4.9% for this weekend uh to win you can find that at fanduel.com resesarch later on this week and every week there I love it uh awesome appreciate it again and you guys can follow me at Derek Yoder on Twitter download the NASCAR betting preview Show podcast Apple Spotify wherever you get your podcast follow t
he NASCAR betting preview show on X as well at NASCAR BPS help our friends over here at in between media give them a subscribe they're trying to get to a thousand so we can do a lot of fun things even more so on this show that'll do it Bristol I'm excited so boys thank you very much and uh make sure you guys interact with everybody on here so Mark have fun in [Music] Jacksonville
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