Today I'm joined by the chief strategy officer
of the Human Rights Foundation, Alex Gladstein. This conversation is jam-packed. We just scratched the surface of these highly
relevant topics, and it was still the longest podcast I've ever done. We covered topics from freedom of information,
debt as a tool to uphold despotic leaders, the origin of the petro dollar, monetary colonialism,
and eventually Bitcoin. Alex also serves as the vice president for
strategy of the Oslo Freedom Forum and has co
nnected hundreds of global dissidents and
civil society groups with business leaders, technologists, philanthropists, journalists,
and artists, with the objective of promoting free and open societies. I learned quite a lot on this podcast on things
that I kind of thought I knew, especially from the perspective of the Global South,
geopolitics, and the monetary, not resource, prosperity of the West. I expect Alex to be back in this program. We have a lot to talk about. I hope you can listen to th
is. It's long. Listen to it in pieces. It's jam-packed. Please welcome Alex Gladstein. Alex Gladstein, good to see you. Great to see you. Excited. I've seen you before, but I didn't know who
you were at the time. Briefly, I was happy to come down for one
of your lectures at Stanford. I live in the area, and I was excited to see
someone whose work inspired me and made me think. So thanks for the work you do. Well, thank you for the work you do, which
I have learned a little bit about, and that's
going to be what we discuss today. I think we have a lot to cover. This may not be a biology Tim Ferriss eight-hour
podcast, but it might be a long one. I hope to cover human rights, which is your
main expertise, monetary privilege, which is a new concept to me, even though now that
I've read and thought about it makes total sense, and ultimately Bitcoin and how that
relates to those other two topics. So maybe we just start with your background. What is it that you do, Alex? And how did you arri
ve at this place? Yeah, so for 15 years, since 2007, I've worked
for the Human Rights Foundation, which is a nonprofit based in New York, founded by
former political prisoners and people whose families were imprisoned for their ideas from
around the world. The organization was founded with a mandate
to focus on authoritarian regimes. So by our standards, that's about 4.3 billion
people in today's world in 95 countries, who don't have the same kind of checks on government
power that we might have
in the United States or Japan or Germany. So that's half the countries in the world
and half the population, plus or minus. 53% of the world's population lives in a place
that doesn't have free speech, property rights, the ability to have free and fair elections,
et cetera. Yeah, so the point being that I did a lot
of things through my career. I started as, essentially, a student with
an internship. My first summer job was to help get outside
information to the Cuban Underground Library Movemen
t, before they had internet and Cuba. So I helped my Latin American colleagues,
who were able to freely travel there, bring all kinds of outside movies and information
in. And people would go in their homes and share
them. It was extremely kind of Soviet vibes, but
it made a big difference actually, before the regime finally sort of crumbled and acknowledged
that they'd have to bring an internet. So that was my first experience with a job. This is a real naive question. And I may be interrupting
you, because I don't
know a lot about this and I should. But in those authoritarian countries, do they
have access to YouTube videos? Well, this was back in 2007, when the Cuban
people didn't have internet. The only way you could get internet really
was by going to a Western embassy. And it was like tightly monitored, expensive. These days, most people have internet access
in some way, shape, or form, or they can go somewhere with internet access. But the point being that through my career,
I d
id a lot of work with people who had a lot of problems accessing information, due
to their government. I spent a lot of time on our North Korea program,
which helps refugees, who've escaped from North Korea, send information back in. That country is still probably the most closed
off society in the world, and people have been using information technology to bridge
that gap for 20 years now, first with DVDs, then with SB sticks, now with smartphones
and SD cards, and even some sort of satellite-t
ype internet. And I think with the rise of Starlink, you're
looking at a decade here, where eventually the internet kind of saturates almost everybody
on the planet. And I want to let you get back to answering
my question on what you're doing and what the Human Rights Foundation is, but how central
is information to people's lives? I mean, you take it for granted that we can
access the collective information of the history of our species on Google here in the United
States but in these authorita
rian countries, et cetera, how important is it to access information
for people in their everyday lives? Well, I think for all the work that we do,
whether we are in business, in energy, in environment, working for labor rights, just
building communities, access to information is essential. Not only is it essential to prevent disaster
and social, basically, deterioration, Amartya Sen wrote about this, how lack of information
can cause famine, right? That's something he won awards, for his work
o
n this, and I think it's quite true. He was looking at famines, basically in India
and in China. And at the end of the day, it's much more
difficult to have a famine or to have a collapse in food supply in an open society, where people
can share information and aren't living in fear. There's the famous sort of town square test. Can you go to your town square and just criticize
the government without fear? So that's the difference between a fear society
and a free society. So this was kind of the
environment that I,
let's say, grew up in, working in this environment, meeting dissidents from around the world who
didn't have the same privileges I did. Information and technology was a really important
part of that, but so were just basic-basic concepts, basic civil liberty stuff, again,
free speech, property rights, freedom to believe in what you want to believe in, freedom to
associate, and freedom from torture and from arbitrary detainment. So these kind of really basic civil liberties
a
re things that everybody strives for. I found that out by meeting people in every
possible society, culture. It is not a western thing to not want to be
tortured or to want to speak your mind. These are universal constructs. I think there's nuance to that, but at the
root, it's entirely true. And I've spent my career looking at how technology
impacts that, can help that or can hinder that. When you were much younger, like high school
or early college, were you aspiring to be a business major or
a systems biologist or
something? Or did you have an experience as a young man
that made the things you're talking about now very important and passionate to you? Yeah, I was really interested in math and
physics. I went to school for engineering actually. But the big events in my life that shaped
me were... I was kind of like the 9/11 generation, so
I lived nearby New York City. 9/11 happened when I was 10th grade, had a
big impact on me. The Iraq War had a huge impact on me. I was junior, seni
or in high school watching
that whole debate unfold. And then going to college in the '04 to '08
period of time, during the early years of the Iraq War, when the protests were really
alive during the surge, all of that, that really colored my view and made me move into
looking at international relations, and away from engineering. I just thought it was very important. And I got fortunate enough to get an internship
at the Human Rights Foundation in 2007. So I had a job going into the great finan
cial
crisis, which was really nice. And I stayed there. I had opportunities to pursue scholarship,
but I decided to stay, and I think that was a great decision. I totally respect scholarship, but, obviously,
it's a very inward looking thing for many years at the beginning of your career at least. And I feel like I've had an opportunity to
just learn from so many people through the work we do. Beyond programs at HRF that are direct support
for people under authoritarian regimes, we do a lot of ga
therings. So we have this thing called the Oslo Freedom
Forum. This is the 15th anniversary of it, actually,
this year in June in Norway. And it brings together activists and dissidents
and puts them on stage and has all the influential people in the audience. So we try to flip the Davos model. In Davos, it's like the powerful people are
on stage, and the activists are prevented from accessing, and they're protesting outside
in the freezing weather. That's normally how it goes. So we were like,
"Let's actually flip that. Let's put the dissidents and troublemakers
on the stage. And let's have the billionaires and the philanthropists
and the influencers sit in the audience and listen." So that's kind of the goal we've had. And it's similar to the Human Rights Foundation. It's always had this focus on dictatorship
and on how can we just help people expand their own freedom. I mean, the main thing that I learned in the
Iraq War generation is that freedom cannot be imposed. It should not be
imposed. It has to come from within. And that's all these folks that we work for
are asking for. I mean, I have a really, really good friend. His name is Vladimir Kara-Murza. He's a really famous Russian activist. He just received a sentence this week of 25
years in prison. He was outside of Russia. He went back into Russia to protest against
Putin's war, and now he's going to be in prison for decades. He'll be another Solzhenitsyn. I really do think so. The guy's so eloquent and powerful and b
rave. What he always would say is that he said,
"Russians will bring democracy to Russia. Stay out of it. But the least you can do is stop treating
Putin like a legitimate world leader." That that's what his advice was to us, like,
"Stop having dinners with him at the White House. And stop treating him and his cronies like
anybody else." So he was sort of calling for us to just stop
helping. But I think the activist community I've met
has taught me very deeply that, again, this freedom-democracy
stuff, it can't be imposed. It's got to be grassroots. And I've just seen evidence of that over and
over and over again. That's another thing that's driven my interest
in technology and open source code, especially, is that communities form around this stuff
everywhere in the darkest places in the world. And we can help without being whatever, imperialistic
about it, we can just contribute to what they're doing and help them on their own terms. And that's kind of the philosophy that I think
HRF
's had and that I've had. I have so many questions. So you started as an intern, and now in 2023,
you are the chief strategy officer for Human Rights Foundation, at a time when in the global
poly-crisis, with energy depletion, with climate change, with a big geopolitical war, with
dollar hegemony at risk, with all these other things, human rights are about to be a major
issue in coming years and decades. So how do you even strategize as a chief of
strategy for such an organization with such a la
rge potential quiver of arrows of needs? Yeah. So we have my day job, and then we have my
personal interests. So what's important to understand about the
day job and the Human Rights Foundation is that human rights is an industry, and it has
a certain amount of funding. And nearly all that funding comes from the
West. It comes from Europe and the United States,
mainly the US. So the grants that are given out globally
for human rights work come from a small group of people, who are pretty homogen
ous. I understand this: that they like to invest
in their own backyard, which makes sense. If you're American, you want to see an improvement
of human rights in the United States. If you're in France, you want to see an improvement
of human rights in France. I have no issue with this. But the outcome of this is that something
like 90% of all the money spent on human rights work in the world gets spent in the West. So you have this self-enforcing kind of feedback
loop happening. Where if you are
like a Chinese dissident
or a group working in China, there's no money for you. You have no money. I mean, maybe you get five, ten thousand dollars
here or there, but you're scraping by. And I mean, if you're in a lesser known dictatorship,
forget about it. Laos, you're living in Madagascar, you're
living in Togo, there's just so little funding or resources for your struggle. So that's why we do what we do is we find
that people, who live in authoritarian regimes just have less resources. It's n
ot necessarily a moral statement about
democracies being better. I've seen democratic governments do the worst
things. I mean, the invasion of Iraq is a great example. It's more about the architecture. As an American, I can start an organization. I can donate to the EFF. I can sue the US government. We can hold our leaders accountable, relatively
speaking. There's 80,000 nonprofits in the United States. We can leak stuff. We can change the course of history. Now, of course, that gets tested. Loo
k at WikiLeaks. But the point is, it's possible. You live in Saudi Arabia, no. Starting in a human rights group is illegal. In some cases you can, quite literally, get
your head cut off. So I think this is the key distinction that
I try to walk is understanding, A, how fortunate I am, but, B, how much more we can improve
as democracies. And the money piece really woke up my senses
to the latter, how exploitative we've actually been globally and how much we are responsible
for a lot of these dict
ators. I didn't quite understand that until I learned
about the global monetary system. So let's move on to that. You wrote a book called Check Your Financial
Privilege from last year. And in your book you begin by stating that
anyone born into a country with a reserve currency, like the euro, the yen, the pound,
or the dollar has a financial privilege relative to 90% of the world population born into weaker
systems. Can you expand on that and carry on with what
you were just saying? We often he
ar about "check your privilege,"
and it's in a variety of contexts. I think that people need to check their financial
privilege. That's the point of the book. What I realized, as I checked my own privilege
as I learned about it, is that very few people on Earth have the benefits we have, that's
speaking as I guess two Americans here. About a billion people live in a liberal democracy
that has property rights and a reserve currency, meaning that their governments can essentially
print money to bu
y things abroad, like oil or industrial materials, et cetera. And that allows them to have cushy kind of
social programs. This is one aspect. Obviously, we'll get, I'm sure at some point,
into how this ties into fossils and access to fossils as well. But the point is that only about a billion
people live in societies where their government has a currency that's strong enough where
they can literally just print it and buy stuff. Now, the US is the obviously key example of
this, the biggest exampl
e. We live in the world's first debt empire. Never before has there been a world empire
that's been a debtor empire. Every other empire before the US was a creditor
empire. It owned stuff. It had a lot of assets. The United States' biggest export is debt. And it's just unique. We've never seen this before. And it definitely coincides with the transition
of the global monetary system from being tied onto gold, something that's in the physical
world, something that's scarce, to not being tied in g
old anymore, to being tied to what
we call fiat money, which is issued by decree. So you can kind of see this map out, and this
is what I spend a lot of time looking at. But the point being that in this day and age,
there are a handful of nations that can sort of print these claims and buy things, like
oil, and then everybody else can't. So you have the other whatever, six, seven
billion people, and we're talking pre-2022 here, pre the Putin invasion of Ukraine, which
we'll get to, which has cha
nged a lot of things I think, and set a lot of things in motion. But when you had Bretton Woods and Bretton
Woods II, kind of these systems, we were very fortunate, and this allowed our countries
to basically subsidize a lot of things in our societies. Think about the financial technology that
we have. It's just so easy for most Americans and Europeans
to send money to each other, to spend money abroad, to use dollars in Africa or Latin
America -- people are happy to take them -- to access capit
al markets, to invest in stocks,
to hedge with all kinds of things. The vast majority of the world's population
has no access to that. Their local fiat currency sucks. The they're best bet of a savings technology
is usually sheet metal or cattle. I'm talking for the majority of the world's
population. They can't teleport money to anybody on Earth
on demand, and they live a very different life. And I think that I just didn't really quite
grasp that, until I took a look at it more closely. So ther
e's really two layers here of financial
privilege. One is the salaries and GDP per capita and
income that is the product of living in the global West on the backs of energy surplus. There's the actual wealth and income inequality
issue. But the second is in parallel, living in a
country that has its own reserve currency, which makes access and commerce and money
moving and all those things seamless and easy, and we take it for granted. Yeah. And again, the US and the EU, until recently,
had done
a pretty good job on inflation for a long time. And people can't really remember... I mean, you have to go back to the '70s, obviously,
right? I'm sure your listeners commiserate. I mean, it's unprecedented what we're seeing
now. Two years ago, tons of people were telling
me, "Ah, high inflation's impossible in Western society." This is literally what I think the economic
orthodoxy thought. And guess what? They weren't humble enough. They didn't understand that it could happen
here too. And I t
hink it has happened here too, and
I think our financial privileges is temporary. It comes in waves. And by looking at what happened in the '70s,
I think we can learn a lot. One thing that I thought was fascinating,
taking a page from leftist scholars and Marxist scholars, is that there's a lot of things
you can say about just briefly going back to Great Depression and why the Western world
had this huge economic crisis. And obviously, there's a debate between the
Keynesians and the Austrians ab
out, "Well, is it because we left the gold standard or
did we not leave it soon enough?," et cetera, et cetera. Right? There's a third argument though, advanced
by the authors of this book called Capital and Imperialism, which is a terrific book. I don't necessarily agree with the conclusions,
but it's a really, really interesting read on history. And they quite simply argue that a lot of
the crisis that the Western world faced at the end of the '20s and '30s was because the
British Empire was c
ollapsing. And you had the center of the Western financial
system lose access to cheap labor and goods that it had been accustomed to having for
hundreds-plus years. This just makes so much sense to me. So that's like step one. Step two is when the access to fossils themselves,
you had decolonialization there. So you had oil access, which was traditionally
managed by Western powers, at least for several decades, when oil first became a thing, Western
companies, seven sisters, all that. And then
you had the OPEC nations actually
take control. You had the power shift. And guess what? That led to massive inflation in the West. So when we couldn't exploit the oil, the energy,
for cheaper than the market value any longer, we lost the ability to subsidize our nations
and to subsidize our currencies. So I think this starts to map. You start to see this happen. Every time the West pulls back from power
over the rest of the world, we have economic crises. And this is so obvious in the '70s to m
e. Literally, right as OPEC starts to come into
its own, they decide to raise the price of oil. The US goes into an inflationary spiral. Nixon has to go off the gold standard. It set everything else in motion. So I've been fascinated by looking at this
and also by looking at the reverse. What the US does impacts everybody else. So we hear a lot about the Fed mandate. The Fed has a mandate, low employment, to
keep inflation in check, these things. What people don't realize is what's not in
the Fe
d's mandate is the livelihood of everybody else in the world. So both in the early '80s and last year, when
the Fed raised interest rates really fast, politically to quell a domestic issue at home... In both cases we had inflation out of control. So the Fed says, "Okay, we're going to jack
interest rates really fast." This absolutely crushes the Global South absolutely
crushes. So in the '80s, you had the Third World debt
crisis, which caused the suffering of tens of millions of people, uncounta
ble number
of deaths from starvation, lack of nutrition, et cetera, child malnutrition. And now you're seeing it again. In the last 18 months, you're seeing both
economic and political collapse all across the Global South, currencies collapsing, the
IMF having to come in and bail out countries, governments being toppled. So I think what I've been really interested
in is looking at both how economic stability and our comfort and our quality of life, or
way of life, in the West, it relies on resou
rces elsewhere, and then also looking at how our
decisions about how to retain stability and comfort and reduce inflation for the average
person hurts other people. So it's this really interesting back and forth
that I've been trying to trace out. So there's a parallel to climate change in
the environmental movement is we don't include the prices of externalities in the price of
our things. So we privatize the gains, and the losses
are held by the commons and the environment. It's the same thing
in the US is we're taking
the gains from having the global reserve currency, the seigniorage from the US dollar being the
reserve currency, and the benefits of spending more than we have, so we get all the stuff
delivered to the United States, but not the responsibility of the financial impact of
our monetary decisions on the rest of the world. Right? Well, I mean, people say it very simply, "We
export inflation." And the authors of Capital and Imperialism
said something really clear and distin
ct to me, which makes a lot of sense. Old school imperialism or colonialism had
kind of a one main goal, and that was to reduce economic instability and inflation inside
our societies, by causing wage deflation in the periphery and by taking cheap goods in
labor from those places and inputting them into our societies. So with super cheap goods in labor, and by
pressing down on the wages elsewhere, we could raise up the quality of life and make it less
likely that there would be mass protests and
overthrow of governments in the West. And that has been sustained, since the age
of colonialism, through the international monetary system. Is that a byproduct of our decisions? Or is that a tacit goal of the decisions? It's a really good question. It could be one of these path dependency things. I highly doubt that, again, somebody was in
a room and they mapped all this out. But it is an outcome of the system and something
we don't speak about. And it hardly matters to the victims. That's kind
of the point. Yeah, if you're a victim of a structural adjustment
policy in the 1980s somewhere in Latin America, does it matter to you whether the West intentionally
did it or whether it was a byproduct of their way of life? I don't think it matters, right? So can you explain the mechanics of why a
sharp sudden increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the United States,
who's focusing on domestic inflation, domestic issues, causes a financial crisis abroad? Is this because foreign
countries have to
use the dollar, and they denominate their debt in dollars, and so all of a sudden what
they owe suddenly spikes in amount? Yeah. So I'll try to just briefly outline two phenomena
which lead to this, and then I'll explain why the rise in rates hurts people. Basically, you have Bretton Woods. You have World War II. You have the US and the allies getting together
in New Hampshire and a hotel to figure out what the international monetary system's going
to look like. They wanted an
international system. Keynes wanted the bancor. This was going to be an internationally managed
currency with kind of percentage-based participation from all the world nations. Sounds very kumbaya, and obviously it didn't
happen, because the US had the most gold, because we didn't get wrecked in World War. And in the '20s we had a inflow of gold from
all these other countries. So because we had the most gold, and gold
was the ultimate monetary good, we got to make the rules. So we said, "No, no
bancor. Everybody's going to use the dollar, redeemable
at $35 per ounce of gold," meaning other central banks would collect dollar claims, and then
they could redeem them for gold at $35 per ounce of gold. Now, bear in mind, the US government had already
made it illegal to hold gold inside the United States. This is what FDR did in the early '30s, in
order to fund the New Deal, was to confiscate the gold from all of America. That's how he paid for it. It's something that I think a lot of people
have a political affinity for on the left, because they like FDR. But if this happened today in any dictatorship,
we'd be screaming about it. I mean he literally took away good money from
people and replaced it with paper. It's kind of an outrage, and it's amazing
it doesn't get more discussion these days. Was that widespread or just sporadic around? I mean, I'm sure there would be gold hidden
somewhere that no one knew about. Right. Was it a really widespread around the nation
that happened? I
mean, Executive Order 6102, you can go look
it up. It mainly did not involve jackbooted thugs
at people's houses, because all the gold was usually kept at banks and centralized institutions. So the government was able to confiscate the
gold. The treasury was able to confiscate the gold
of the Fed, by the way. So they took all the Fed's gold, and they
replaced it with claims. And then they also rounded up all the gold
in regional banks, companies, et cetera. Americans couldn't own gold again unt
il the
'70s, until I think '75. It was illegal to own gold? It was illegal to own gold. Absolutely. Look it up. Executive order 6102. So first thing the American government did
was take away the ability for the people to escape inflation. This is called financial repression. So this is how they funded all their programs
from the '70s to the '70s was in many ways having the, basically, inflation rate above
the interest rate. So if you're owning US debt, you're negative. You're not making money; y
ou're losing money. This is called financial oppression. This is what's happening right now, when you
have whatever. When you have 7% CPI, and the Fed funds rates
at like 5% or whatever, you get my drift, right? You're losing some money there. So this was like par for the course for 40
years. And the American government, first they took
away the ability for the American people to hedge against that. And then, in 1971, they took away the ability
of the world to hedge against that. So between '44
and '71, you had Bretton Woods
One, which was all these other central banks used dollars on the premise that they could
redeem them for gold. Now, what happened in the sixties is that
after JFK was assassinated, you had a huge increase in American fiscal spending on both
the Vietnam War and the Great Society stuff, so you had guns and butter. So by the late sixties, all these other governments
were like, "America can't actually back this up." And the gold was dwindling. It was crazy how much our
gold reserves actually
reduced, to the point where in the summer of '71, the French sent a battleship to New
York City to redeem their gold, de Gaulle did this. And his administrations and his successors,
they did this. They sent a battleship to New York City. And the British also tried to claim several
billion dollars of gold, and this triggered Nixon to meet with his advisors that August
and go on television and deliver what's known as the Nixon shock, and basically tell the
world, "Hey, sorr
y. All those claims that we said we would redeem
for gold, not going to do that anymore." So we rug-pulled the whole world, and all
of a sudden all these governments around the world had given their gold to us or to someone
else, and they had gotten these little pieces of paper, and then those papers were no longer
back by dollars. And what happened was between '71 and '75,
the dollar devalued against the German Mark by 50%. So the dollar started to go into free fall,
basically. We had huge infl
ation in the United States. And like I said before, this was really exacerbated
by our losing control over energy production. I think these are extremely tied together. So when did the pertrodollar... was born? Yeah. So basically, Nixon and Kissinger created
the petrodollar, not Washington and Adams. Our founders were extremely skeptical of centralized
monetary systems. But these guys were total opportunists, right? They could care less about the external costs. Nixon famously was saying, in the
Watergate
leaks, there's something where he says, "I don't give a shit about the lira." They were ask him about Italy, and he was
like, "I don't care about them." So these guys had no empathy for even our
allies at the time. And what they realized is in order to fund
Vietnam and the Great Society stuff without getting massive protests in the street, they
needed to find a way for someone to start buying American debt, like in large quantities. So they hired a guy named William Simon off
Wall Str
eet. He worked at Salomon Brothers, he sold bonds. This was his job to sell debt. So they hired William Simon to be Treasury
Secretary. That's what I did. I sold bonds at Salomon Brothers, but go on. Great. So if you'd go back in time, it might have
been you. So they hired him off Wall Street to run the
government's bond sales program. Okay? So what do you do when you're like, "Oh man,
we've got to sell our debt"? You find someone who's got the most money
in the world. And who had the most money
in the world in
1973? Saudi Arabia. The amount of money, of capital, the capital
count in OPEC because of the rise of the price of oil in dollar terms from whatever it was,
$2 to $12, was so astronomical, the Saudis and OPEC, they didn't know what to do with
all this money. They couldn't possibly invest it internally. So we sent, despite the war, despite us being
back and forth and on different sides with regard to Israel, we sent Simon out there. He went to Jeddah. Then the Crown Prince came t
o D.C. later in
'74, and then Nixon went to Saudi Arabia and met the king and all this. This is all in the history books. None of this is speculation, this is all... You go back, you look at New York Times articles. And what we came to an agreement was, was
called the Petrodollar Pact, and there's four elements to the Petrdollar Pact. Number one, the Saudis would price oil in
dollars and enforce the rest of OPEC pricing oil in dollars, meaning- So before that point, what was it priced in? Sure.
Before that point, obviously, dollars were
dominant because we had the largest economy and dollars are flowing around everywhere. It was dollar diplomacy, right? But it wasn't... You could do a deal with OPEC to use your
fiat currency to buy oil. This was possible. Okay. Now- Keep going. Yeah, sure. So when this was enforced, it just has so
many network effects. Basically, it really crowds out everything
else, and it really makes the dollar... It increases demand for the dollar, obviously,
if yo
u have to find dollars to pay. If Malawi needs oil, they can no longer print
their own currency or use the currency of a local African nation. They have to get dollars. Well, how does Malawi get dollars? They can't print them. They have to export stuff to the United States
or to an ally, which means that we can control their society. We can tell them what we want, and we can
change their internal structure, and we can force them to make stuff we want. This is how all of US agricultural policy
ha
s gone, actually. It's gone hand-in-hand with energy policy. So these countries now have to earn dollars. Instead of serving their own needs and becoming
sovereign and productive, they have to pay debt back in dollars. Now, just as an aside, at the same time the
petrodollar is coming into existence, the IMF and World Bank are really surging into
the scene in the Global South, and all this debt that's flowing in, in the 70s is dollar-denominated. So keep that in mind for later. So you're getting
this massive amount of dollar-denominated
debt going into the Global South. A lot of it is from these earnings. So to stay on the petrodollar, number one
is that the Saudis and OPEC mandate that, "You can only pay us in dollars to buy oil." And number two is what's called petrodollar
recycling. We're going to recycle the dollar profits
back into US debt. And that was done in some ways through the
Eurodollar system, which I'll explain in a second. But basically, you had these two elements
on the
Saudi side. On the American side, what we agreed to do
was sell them weapons at a lower than market rate and protect them. So that was the Petrodollar Pact. And that's colored all of our relationship
with Saudi Arabia ever since, including up till today, where it seems to be unraveling. And I can get into that. So you have- Well, not only our relationship with Saudi
Arabia, but the entire global economic system, it's colored that for the last 50 years. Totally. Yeah. Yeah. And what I'll just poi
nt out is that I think
the petrodollar is really important, especially in the 70s. The dollar was collapsing. And you look at pre-petrodollar, the British
pound still accounted for a sizeable amount of petroleum trade; after, it basically went
to zero. So it is definitely a transitionary moment. And I think that... Yeah, go ahead. Well, I was just going to say, you know what
else happened in 1970, '71? Mm-hmm. US non-shale oil peaked, growth in global
oil production hit its all-time production g
rowth. It was growing at 7% or 8% a year there. 1971 was the all-time peak of that growth
rate. Yeah. 1971 was in the Genuine Progress Indicator,
which is a measure of GDP that subtracts out the bads. That's when that peaked. And Richard Nixon also did something positive
here, was 1970 was the first Earth Day. But sorry to interrupt you. Keep going, Alex. No, no. It's fine. And we're going to stay on this. So we just described the petrodollar system. Now that's a political system. That is not a
free market outcome. That was a political negotiation. And Greenspan, who was in the Ford administration
kind of as this thing was being fleshed out through the 70s, he's on record saying that
it was not a market decision. However, at the same time, you have the Eurodollar
system, which is worth describing briefly. So back in the 50s, the Soviet allies in Europe,
they didn't want to have their savings in rubles, for obvious reasons. That's a weak currency. They wanted dollars, so they basically
were
able to create dollar contracts at banks outside the purview of the US government. These are called Eurodollars, so they're just
dollars that are outside the US banking system. So these started to spread, and they were
created entirely without permission or authority of the US government. This is a free market phenomenon, globally
free market is what I mean. And by the 60s, 70s, they start to increase
in size. There's more and more and more Eurodollars. So you have to know that there's two
things
happening here. One is a free market interest in having the
dollar. Okay? But the other one is a political design. They're both important. It's impossible to say which one's more important,
but let's just consider they're both key for what we're about to get to. So what ends up happening is the Saudis, OPEC,
they have this incredible amount of money. They invest it back into the US banking system,
the US banking system, and the Eurodollar system they have in Europe. They have all these do
llars, so they do dollar-denominated
debt to the Global South. This is in the late 70s, an astonishing amount. You basically had a late 1920s kind of bubble
in sovereign debt sales to the Global South. So you had little banks in the Midwest of
the United States lending to Angola, stuff like that. It was completely crazy. So there was a huge bubble. So if you're a farmer or a small business
person in Angola, and you have an idea and you need funding for it, just to use your
example. No. Yeah. You
would eventually get a $1 million loan
from some bank in Illinois. And you would be in your own country with
your customers paying the Angola currency, but you would have to pay your debt back,
your interest and eventually your principle, in US dollars. I wish it was that balanced. What was actually happening is that the farmers
in Iowa were depositing their money and building up a banking system in the Midwest that was
then making loans to a government, a corrupt government in Angola, which wa
s not sharing
any money with Angolan farmers, which was buying weapons, stocking up the police force,
paying interest off debt to the IMF. Very, very little of this money actually made
it to the people, unfortunately. But it was a massive bubble, incredible, incredible
amounts of money, 200-300% growth from '78 to like '81, '82. And then, what happens? The age of cheap credit ends, right? So you have all of this dollar- denominated
debt in all these countries that can't print dollars, so they ne
ed dollars to get oil and
often food, commodities, things like that. They also need dollars to pay back their debt. Right? Now we get back to the rise in interest rates. So Volcker now raises rates. Now they were high, they were 6%, 7%, 8% or
whatever they were, 9%, 10%. He raises them almost to 20%. So all of a sudden, the cost of capital globally
skyrockets. It becomes extremely difficult for all these
countries to pay their debts back. It becomes extremely difficult to afford everything. Ther
e's massive price inflation in the Global
South, and what happens is- Can I ask a quick question? Yeah, yeah. So preceding those days, if you borrowed money
in US dollars, the Angolan government, presumably it was a 10-year loan or something that had
a fixed rate. Mm-hmm. So why would rates going from 7% to 20% affect
the previous borrowings at a fixed lower rate? No. It is not like a US 30-year fixed rate. No, no, no, no. Oh, okay. These rates are adjustable. Got it. And they would get renegoti
ated through something
called the Paris Club, which folks should look up. But basically, just to be very brief, we can
get into details later, but World Bank loans are very long, 10, 20, 30 years, and they
often get readjusted through the Paris Club. The IMF loans were supposed to be short-term,
and they were supposed to be fixed. But again, what happens is that you have a
two-year IMF loan for whatever amount of money, and you're Mobutu in Zaire, let's say, horrible
human rights abuser. You're
getting bailed out by the IMF for unfortunate
reasons. Then you run out of money and the IMF says,
"Well, are you going to pay us?" And you're Mobutu and you say, "No." And what ends up happening is that they say,
"Fine. We'll give you another loan." And what's happening here is that... And what happens in the 80s when Mexico becomes
the first country to declare bankruptcy and basically start the Third World Debt Crisis. When the United States and the West bailed
out Mexico, we weren't bailing t
hem out because of empathy for Mexican people; or we weren't
bailing Mobutu out because of empathy for Zaireans. We're bailing these countries out to save
our own banks. So what happened is our Western banks got
so overleveraged on debt to these nations that if those countries collapsed, we'd have
a 1930s financial crisis. So that's why in the 80s and then again in
the 90s and '94 with the Peso Crisis, '97, '98 with the Asian Financial Crisis, the European
Crisis, 2010, '11, '12, every time anot
her part of the world is about to collapse, we
can't have that, because that would mean that our banks have to write assets down. They don't want to do that. They would rather extend more debt. That's always been the solution. So that's why there's been an exponential
rise in Global South debt since the early 70s. So I knew this, Alex. Yeah. But I didn't know this. My girlfriend and I are watching, for the
first time, actually, the Sopranos right now. And boy, it sure sounds like there's a lot
o
f parallels in the story you're telling. It's a fantastic show. Yeah, no. So basically, but Volcker's not mean. I don't think... He doesn't want these people to suffer. It's just not part of his... He's not thinking about it. Right. Does Powell know about the fact that Sri Lanka
is collapsing in part because of US financial policy? I don't know. Well, does Powell or Yellen or Bernanke know
about the carbon footprint of quantitative easing? No, that's a byproduct. It's not in their mandate, right
? Yeah. So the point being that these interest rate
hikes really harm a lot of people abroad, because not only do they create massive price
inflation. Just to give you an example, the FT does a
good job covering what's happening in Egypt right now. Classic case reads like the 1980s, the average
Egyptian is paying more and more money for bread, astronomically more than they were
a couple years ago. Meanwhile, the government's getting bailed
out by the billions by the IMF. Now what's the governmen
t going to spend that
money on? The military, so it can keep itself in power. This has just been the case forever. And what ended up happening in the 80s, and
what I fear is happening now in a lot of the developing world, is that, you move money
out of the equation. The number of hours you have to work to get
a thousand grams of protein or rice is actually increasing. So we would think that with technological
deflation and with the innovation of humans and all these advances in sterilization, re
frigeration,
healthcare, all these things, you would've thought that in the 70s and 80s, between 1970
and 1990, that people all around the world would've had to work less for the same amount
of meat or rice. Now, that's certainly true in the West. And the increases in efficiency were crazy,
subsidized in large part because of fossil fuels. But in these other parts of the world where
fossils were more scarce and where there wasn't as much access to that sort of thing, and
they were getting squeez
ed by IMF structural adjustment policies, squeezed by the rising
cost of capital by the US government, the amount of hours you had to work to get a thousand
grams of rice in Peru, for example, or beef in some cases doubled over a 15 to 20 year
period of time. So this is what I mean when I say wage deflation. Is this also what you mean when you use the
term monetary colonialism? That's a very specific brand of this. What I'm describing is the general relationship
between Western powers and we'll
call it the developing world or the Third World or the
Global South, whatever you want to use. But basically, you have the West and you have
the developing world, and the relationship for hundreds of years has been somewhat similar. First it was naked imperialism, and then now
it's more of a financial repression story. There are unique and specific instances of
what I would refer to as monetary colonialism that are good examples of this. And the most obvious case is found in West
Africa and Cent
ral Africa. So for example, the French used to have straight
up imperialism over a massive amount of the Global South, including a huge chunk of Africa. So in the 50s and 60s, they were forced to
decolonize. They didn't want to. They fought a unbelievably horrific war in
Algeria because they really wanted that gas there. They ultimately had to leave, but they really
didn't want to give up claims over these 15 countries in West and Central Africa, from
Senegal to Togo to Mali, Central African Rep
ublic, for a couple different reasons. One was cultural and linguistical; they wanted
to keep spreading the French language and culture. And one was resource-based; they wanted the
uranium that was in the Sahara Desert in these countries. France gets lauded, I think properly, for
having a really great nuclear program. But what most people don't know is for decades,
all of that uranium was essentially stolen from their monetary colonial subjects in the
Sahara in places like Chad and Mali. So an e
normous amount of French culture and
prosperity and standards of life were subsidized by repressing these people in 15 countries
in Africa. And it was through the currency, so basically,
on the street, people call it the CFA, it's the Colonial French franc. That's what it's still called today. There's a really good book about this called
Africa's Last Colonial Currency. Yeah, I think your readers will find it really
interesting. And I also have a chapter in my book, Check
Your Financial Privileg
e, on it. But essentially, the CFA is controlled by
France. It used to be tied to the franc, and then
now it's sort of tied to the Euro. But between '44, when it was invented, and
the late 90s, it was devalued 99.9% against the franc. So basically, the French squeezed all this
economic life out of these countries. And if you look, not only are all 15 authoritarian
states, so no democratic development, also like seven or eight of them are the poorest
countries in the world. We're talking like Gui
nea-Bissau, Niger, et
cetera, Chad. So these countries were stripped of their
prosperity and industry by France intentionally. And it's a shocking thing. It's totally shocking. And the country itself, for a long time, these
countries had to keep 100% of their reserves, like their national earnings, in 4X in Paris. And when they wanted to have some, France
would charge them. So France got access to all this capital. They also had a market to sell expensive stuff
to. So you go down to Dakar, all t
he cars are
French, because France just sold stuff to these countries. And then, there's this thing where if you
are in Ivory Coast and you want to build a bridge or something, you have to first go
to French contractors and offer the job to them at a higher the market rate. And only if they refuse can you go to the
Americans or Chinese. Similarly, if you're selling coffee, you have
to go to the French first to sell below market rate, and only if they refuse can you sell
to someone else. So it's
basically like- This is today or in the past? This is today. Now certain things have changed very slightly,
but the colonial currency continues to exist today, and all these countries are still in
it because France props up dictators throughout the region to protect the system. So it is pretty intense. But basically, what I'm saying here is that
this is a extreme example of the broader thing I'm describing, which is that Western countries,
through the currency, exploit peripheral nations and the
y subsidize their way of life this
way. So I should probably, Alex, just shut up and
let you tell us what's important, and I not ask you any questions, because I have a hundred
questions, and you have a hell of a lot to say. But I am going to interrupt here and say two
things. Yeah. One thing and then one question. So until this conversation, the way I think
about inflation and deflation is we have the deflationary impulse from new innovation and
technology and mass producing high definition tel
evision sets, because we get better at
those processes. Yeah. That's paired with energy depletion, where
oil and copper and materials are getting less concentrated and they're more costly to extract,
and that ripples into our price system. But now realizing it, that's kind of a Western
perspective, because there's a third dynamic that influences our prices and our ability
to afford things, and that is this global financial, well, monetary colonialism is what
you said. Because those inflationary
and deflationary
impulses that I just described in Angola or Chad or somewhere else, aren't as relevant
as where their currency comes from and what they need to pay for things. Well, you're totally right, but I just add
two things that you're hinting at it. It's also about us getting cheap labor abroad. If we had to make everything that we use in
the United States with our wages, our stuff would be way more expensive. So obviously, we've outsourced a ton of that
to China and elsewhere. And that'
s really important. And how close is that to slavery, in your
mind? I think that the system is corrupt and unethical. It's evil in many ways, but it's not like
you can point to one person. It's an outcome of the way that history has
unfolded. And what's crazy- So in my language, it's an emergent property
of past decisions that have resulted in this energy-hungry superorganism. Yeah. And look. I'm a classic liberal. I love freedom, I love capitalism. But we don't have a counterfactual here. We ha
ve our world where this is an outcome
of our system. Now you can argue that what we're doing, no
true Scotsman thing, you can say, "Well, this isn't capitalism." And I would say, "That's actually right,"
because everything's totally centrally planned. You have the petrodollar, you have US trade
policy that prevents nations from trading equally with each other. Everything's controlled. So there's a little bit of that, but it's
hard to separate our way of life from exploiting other nations is what
I'm saying. And just to give you a stat that I think is
important, again, the point here is that these systems we've developed over time, the fiat
currency system, the World Bank, the IMF, the international financial system, followed
the age of colonialism and imperialism and tried in many ways to replicate it. And again, the point was the resource flow. So here's a crazy stat that your audience
probably doesn't know, and I didn't know until last year. In 1982, the flow of funds permanently swi
tched
from previously the Global North sending resources and investment to the Global South, to it
coming the other way around. So since 1982, there's been a growing drain
of resources. We're talking everything: investment, grants,
remittances, commerce, all that stuff, black market, white market, all of it. Since '82, it's been flowing our way. So Global South countries have been subsidizing
us since '82 permanently. And it started as a trickle, and now it's
trillions of dollars a year. So in m
any ways, we've perfected this art
of exploiting the other. And this is the stat. So in 2015, the drain was 10.1 billion tons
of raw materials and 182 million person years of labor, so that's 50% of all goods and 28%
of all labor used that year by high income countries. So all you need to do is think about it this
way. Pretend half our goods weren't subsidized,
and pretend 28% of our labor wasn't subsidized. What would happen to prices in New York and
in Philadelphia? They'd be a lot higher. Yea
h. So I'm just visualizing this as a giant siphon
from the Global South to... Yeah. Yeah. Yes. And it's all made possible with debt. So basically, the whole idea was to replace
the warship and the gun and the bayonet with debt. So debt became the weapon. And look. Anyone listening from the Global South is
not learning here, probably much. They know this, they've lived this, they've
seen this. They've seen wage deflation. They've seen stuff get worse. We talk about in America how wages have been
stagnant since the 70s for the lower middle class, which is true. I mean, stagnant? In some of these countries, you saw a 20-30%
decrease in GDP. So one fact that I learned that was shocking,
when we talk about the human toll of all this, and forget the environmental toll for a second,
just on the human toll, when a country like Mexico, which is a classic country that's
had a lot of dealings with lending with IMF, et cetera, when their GDP contracts by 2%,
their mortality rate deteriorates by 1%
. So think about if you have 100 million people
and your GDP goes down 2%, you're losing a million people prematurely, right? So think about the 70s and 80s, during what
culminated in the Third World Debt Crisis. You had countries that lost 10, 20, 30% of
their GDP, so these policies killed tens of millions of people. But they'll never be in accounting. They'll never be any justice. No one will ever go to prison. In fact, Larry Summers, who was the head of
the World Bank's Economic Unit in the e
arly 90s, he went to the White House and now he's
on Twitter telling us what to do. None of these people will ever suffer any
consequences for anything they ever did. And that's just something that we have to
accept. Do you think people like that are aware of
the things that you're saying? Or were they focused on helping what their
mandate was and these were spandrels or externalities? So there's a pretty famous... In the high levels, yes, they're culpable
and they're guilty. Because there's eve
n a memo that Summers wrote
in the early 90s that leaked, where he basically was suggesting that we dump all of our toxic
waste in Africa. That guy totally knows. I remember that quote. I remember that quote. Yeah, yeah. He's a... But that was an environmental guilty thing. That this debt as a siphon from... Yeah, but I think that 80 to 90% of the employees
at these institutions, who by the way, are paid extremely well, they love their jobs,
they think they're doing good. And it's sort of the ba
nality of evil thing,
right? I wouldn't expect... They just don't know. They just don't know. I think you really have to zoom out to see
this. The argument I'm trying to make, what I've
just discussed is laid out in my new book that came out yesterday actually called Hidden
Repression. Oh, I didn't know that. How the IMF and World Bank Sell Exploitation
as Development. And I just hope that... All I'm asking is that people educate themselves
on this and come to their own conclusions. Let me ask y
ou a personal question. Sure. And I'm going to ask you some personal questions
at the end of this interview, too. Yeah. But at the beginning of this, you told me
that your work at Human Rights Foundation is helping global dissidents. Yes. And human rights. And living in fear is a terrible thing. Yeah. Some of the things you've dropped on this
podcast even so far are pretty threatening to the status quo. I know there's a lot of environmental dissidents
in South America that pay for their courage
with their lives, because people don't want
to hear that. Totally. Are you ever afraid of what you're saying,
because it's so profoundly against the cultural narrative or the Western privilege? I think that no, because I work with all these
dissidents who literally, some of them have been killed, right? So I think I don't take anything for granted,
but I take advantage of my opportunities. We'll put it that way. I'm happy to do this and I just hope people
can learn. I'm trying to walk this line
between, again,
I'm a huge believer in Western civilization at its core values and the American Revolution
and what it stood for at the time in terms of being anti-imperial. I'm 100% on board with the values. What I'm not on board with is what's happened
since, right? So I think that we need to improve. The problem is that a lot of people who say
stuff that I've said on the show so far will then all of a sudden go and be like pro-CCP
or pro-Putin or pro-dictator or pro-Chavez. That's wrong. Dict
atorship is the enemy. Dictatorship is what we're fighting against. We need to work out the kinks in our liberal
democracies and improve them, not go simp for some dictator. So I've been really embarrassed by the number
of people on the left who see some of the stuff I'm seeing, but then they go ahead and
say, "Well, America is evil. Let's go support Putin." This is a horrific thing. And you see a lot of people on the left and
on the far right. There's the horseshoe theory, right? They're like,
"Ukraine's fake. It's a NATO war," whatever. All this crazy stuff you see. It's crazy. So I'm trying to walk a line between knowing
that the free society is what we want, and that individual rights are really important,
and that we want to protect individual freedom. This is so key. And at the same time, trying to understand
the costs of our system. What has our system imposed on others? And I'm just trying to help people think about
that. And ultimately, I think it calls for monetary
reform, wh
ich probably pushes us to the next part of the conversation. Yes, let's go there. So how did you, when did you become interested
in Bitcoin as a part of the suite of responses to the challenges that you just laid out? Yeah. And just before we get to Bitcoin, last thing. If you're listening so far, I just would ask
you, is it fair that 4% of the world's population can impose rules on the rest of the world? Is it fair that a small group of unelected
old white men, for the most part, in Virginia, g
et to decide the cost of capital for everybody? I think the system is profoundly unfair. I've benefited from it my entire life. I have this financial privilege. But I'm asking you just to think about what
it's like for other people, both at the retail level of can you send money to your friends? This is just non-trivial for some people. Try to send a Western Union or a bank wire
to Mozambique or to South Korea even, it's impossible. And it's expensive and it takes a lot of time
and sometimes it
doesn't even make it. They have to deal with a lot. So all I'm asking is just put yourself in
their shoes. And that's what brought me to Bitcoin. So before you continue, is there a way to
have modern complexity, globalization, six-continent supply chains with 100 to 200 countries each
having their own cost of capital? That's highly impractical. Or did it have to go this way? Yeah, I think what you probably would've seen
had the petrodollar not happened is just more of a multipolar world. I think
the US is always going to be really
dominant, no matter what currency paradigm we have. But it reached this crazy apex. So there might have been five or six currencies
and then the cost- Yeah, or three, or even two. And look, one outcome of the petrodollar system
was defeating the Soviet Union in the Cold War, which was good. So there's that. I think we should be balanced about this. Briefly, how did that ... How was that? Well, we got to print money. We got to click a button to buy oil, and th
ey
had to dig it out of the ground. How's that? That's good. That's pretty much it. That was one of the big ... And then think
about all the trickle down effects from that. So I have this in my Earth Day talk that I
gave last night, and it'll be online next week, is we talk about the American way of
life, and a lot of it is because of our accident of geology, where this country is totally
a bunch of ancient oceans, and we have natural gas and coal, and we have 90% plus energy
independence. But a
big part of it is the hegemony that
we get from the US dollar, and the seigniorage and the benefits that you've been describing. And I would say pre-shale revolution, or pre-our
ability to use technology to make things cheaper, we'll just say, there was a moment there. Late '90s, people were freaking out about
the euro. People were freaking out about the petro euro. I make an assertion, I know it's provocative,
but I think one of the major reasons we invaded Iraq was to protect the petro dollar
. I don't think it was to bring democracy to
Iraq, I don't think it was to fight terrorism, I don't think it was to take away nuclear
weapons. I totally agree with you. And I don't think it was for oil because we
had all ... We don't get any oil from over there. But what was threatening was Saddam selling
tens of billions of dollars of oil to Germany and France in Euros. That was a problem. Get this. There's a Newsweek article by Howard Fineman
from June Three. You go look at it, and it just not
es that
the end, "A couple weeks later, the Iraqis were back to selling the oil for dollars." Yeah, that was fixed. So I'm not saying it's the only reason we
went in there, but it's certainly at the top for me. And David Graeber has a great piece of debt
in his book Debt, rest in peace. He has an awesome section on this about the
dollar and about Iraq. It's really good. And about Vietnam, people should read it. It's excellent. How do you as the United States ... Sorry, just to finish that. So th
ere was a moment there where things were
getting ... Remember how expensive oil got? It was dicey right there. So we were freaking out about a lot of things,
and then technology sort of bought us another decade. And what also bought us another decade was
China coming into the WTO, and us being able to sell a trillion dollars of treasuries to
China. And as Luke Groman is great on this, a macro
economist, and so is Lyn Alden. Both of them are excellent to follow. I follow both of them. Yeah, so ba
sically during and after the great
financial crisis, that was the peak of dollar hegemony, and ever since then, these countries
have been selling off our debt and buying gold. So we're kind of going back to this world
where countries probably are going to start settling in gold more and more, and less and
less in American claims. And this was obviously expedited by Russia's
invasion of Ukraine and the G7 decision to freeze Western financial assets that were
held by the Russians. So all these oth
er dictators are looking at
that and saying, " No thanks, no thanks. We're going to hold something that you guys
can't remotely confiscate." We've managed to keep the system alive, but
I think that it can't last forever. No monetary empire lasts forever. And it's not going to be China. Sorry. Sorry, Ray Dalio. If you look at every reserve currency, it
was always based at its core in freedom and property rights and rule of law. Whether it was the Dutch, or the British,
or the Americans, at least
at home, there was a court system where there was rule of
law. The Chinese don't have this. No one's going to trust the Chinese government
to issue currency. They have a closed capital account. They don't want the Triffin Dilemma. That's not going to happen. So it's going to be, I think the dollar- What's the Triffin Dilemma? The Triffin Dilemma is a situation a country
gets into and it becomes the reserve currency, whereby normally
when your currency gets really strong, your wages and things g
et very expensive, your
currency gets strong and your exports become uncompetitive, so people stop buying them
and your currency starts to get weaker. This is a natural balance in the order of
things. But with the Triffin Dilemma, the difference
is that the reserve currency, everybody else needs it. So the dilemma is that the issuer of the reserve
currency goes deeper and deeper and deeper and deeper into debt, while its currency remains
pretty strong instead of weakening. Normally if you're ...
So we're facing that. Right, but if you're like Malawi, you're going
to go bankrupt and have hyperinflation. But if you're United States, we have this
massive demand for dollars. So the dilemma is that if you look at any
account reading of the United States since the '70s, it's insane. It's like this. It's like we have this insane deficit of 30
trillion that keeps growing by one and a half trillion every year. Again, this is the only debt empire in history. So there's no precedent for this. We'
ve never seen this before. So I'm about nine questions behind, but this
is all good. I've already concluded that you're going to
have to come back for around two, but let me just ask you this. Around 40% of the watchers of this podcast
are from the United States, and quite a few from Europe. How can someone not feel a little bit of shame
from hearing the story that you've unpacked here in the prior hour? I think it's a fair ... When I went through
all this research that I've been doing the last
few years on these topics, I go through
shock, surprise, disappointment, shame, and then we'll get to this, but the inspiration
part. It could be better. We could change things. Not for the past, but for the future. I would recommend next time you're in New
York, or Rome, or Berlin, or London, and you're at a particularly beautiful place, looking
at all this incredible civilization that we've built, just consider that, yes, a lot of it
is because of freedom of our values, of property rights and
free speech, and constitutional
democracy and all that. Absolutely. And those are worth fighting for. It's also because we stole resources and labor
from poor nations for a long time. And that's something we don't think about. And it's just the truth. And I know people don't want to look at the
truth or deal with the truth, but the truth is both. And that upsets everybody, because there's
a lot of Marxists who say, "No, it's not because of freedom. Screw freedom. It's only because of exploitatio
n." And then there's a lot of neoliberal people
who are like, "Not really exploitation. It's all because of how great our markets
are," and all this stuff. The truth is that it's both. And I know that's not a clean picture for
people. And it's somewhat, a lot predicated on the
100 billion barrel oil equivalence of coal, oil, and natural gas that are underpinning
it all. 100%. And again, let's move to Bitcoin. But the last thing I'll say is just that we've
had such a incredible opportunity to tak
e advantage of fossils, and a lot of other countries
haven't, and that almost entirely has dictated their development in many ways. How could they access those fossils and what
could they do with them? A lot of countries like Nigeria, they have
a bunch of oil, but they can't do what they want with it. They have to sell it for dollars to get money
to pay back debt and to buy food. So you have this whole system where Africa
as a continent imports 85% of its food, which is insane, because it should
be feeding the
world. So here's a really naive question, and then
yes please, let's get to your interest in Bitcoin. Yeah. Does the average person in Nigeria, or Mozambique,
or Angola understand the premises that you've laid out here? Are they angry at the United States and the
West because we have the global reserve currency, or are they just discontent because they can't
afford things that they would like and there's other issues? Well, just like I was ignorant about my country
until recently
, I would assume most people are pretty ignorant about this stuff because
it doesn't impact their daily lives. That being said, people that I've met, I can
only speak for who I've met, my personal experiences on my travels and in my work, they're very
aware that when the IMF comes for austerity, things get worse. This is super obvious to anyone who's lived
through any of this stuff. And ironically- So the IMF is the Soprano's equivalent of
Paulie Walnuts? It's like the Grim Reaper. Honestly, it'
s like the Grim Reaper. And structural adjustment, which is this policy
that these countries have to do when they borrow money from the IMF, or more recently
from the World Bank, they have to raise taxes, reduce subsidies for food and energy, they
have to shrink their economy, they have to devalue the currency. I mean, this is never asked of the West. The United States and Germany, they've never
had to structurally adjust. In fact, because we're democracies, we refuse. And that's why the IMF and
World Bank working
with dictators. That's what drew me to research this thing
in the first place. I was like, "Why the hell are we bailing out
Suharto and Marcos and Mobutu, these criminals, these war criminals? What's going on? Why are we supporting them?" So the implication is that in order to label
ourselves as democracies, we have to be international authoritarians. Well, I think the friction I've uncovered,
I think, in my research is that ... It would be, I think, obvious to an alien comin
g and
looking at the thing, would be that our system has powerful nations exploit the week. It's pretty simple. And that is exacerbated by the money. So look, I spent 10 years working with activists
from these countries all around the world from these authoritarian nations. And I saw the problem they had with money. Not necessarily on the global macro front,
but on the, "I couldn't set up a bank. This dictator shut off my bank account. My currency sucks. I can't receive a wire from you when you
want
to give me a grant." Just basic logistical stuff is so hard for
so many people. And then they kept telling me about they're
using Bitcoin. And I'm like, "What?" The first time was WikiLeaks. Julian Assange spoke at the Oslo Freedom Forum
in 2010. I met him in person. And six months later, Satoshi Nakamoto, the
creator of Bitcoin, had their last public post. Where whoever they were, he/she/they said,
"Let's hope that WikiLeaks doesn't use Bitcoin. We're not ready. The software project was to
o vulnerable." This was in December 2010, six months after
Assange spoke at my event, and I met him. Six months later, Satoshi disappears, Assange
posts a Bitcoin address to the WikiLeaks account. The rest is history. The US government came in and shut off any
way to pay or donate to WikiLeaks through Visa or PayPal or whatever. So you had to use Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin at the time was worth a dollar. It wasn't worth anything. No one trusted it. But guess what? It worked for this purpose, and we s
aw that
and that was interesting. Fast forward two years, 2013, two things happened. A bunch of Ukrainians who were gathering to
be what would later be Maidan Square, wrote to us and said, "Could you help us do a fundraiser? Our bank accounts got cut off. Can you send us some Bitcoin?" And Gary Casperoff, who's our chairman, we
worked on this together. There's still this Reddit post from 2013. You can see this. So we helped get them some Bitcoin, and to
our surprise, it worked. Again, Bitcoin wa
sn't worth much, but it allowed
money to go beyond the control of the state, which was important for our work. The other thing that happened that year is
this woman named Roya Mahboob, who's a good friend of mine, started using Bitcoin in her
work in Afghanistan to pay the women who worked for her company, a software company. She was a pioneer, had a female only software
company. She couldn't pay the girls in cash because
the male relatives would take it. They couldn't open bank accounts, but th
ey
had phones. So she paid them in Bitcoin and it worked,
and it gave them freedom. So those two things weighed heavily on my
mind, but I'm a skeptic. If I do a personality test, I'm a 99% skeptic. So I was like, "Okay, okay, fine. This Bitcoin thing." But I kept kind of ignoring it. We started accepting Bitcoin donations in
2014 at HRF. So we started getting some Bitcoin, I started
to get it a little more, but it wasn't really until late 2016 or early 2017 that I was like,
"Oh my God, we have t
o actually have a program here where we link Bitcoin folks with activists
so we can help them, just like we helped activists learn about encryption." So in 2010, no activists used any sort of
really personal encryption on their phones outside of Western experts. It was really not done. Fast forward 10 years, everybody uses Signal. So you had a 10 year time where everything
changed. I think that's going to be the case from,
let's say, 2018 to 2028. I think over that decade, every activist is
goin
g to use Bitcoin, whether they it or not. It's not a philosophical thing. It's like email. Do I care about the political beliefs of the
people who created email? No. I'm using it because it's obviously better
than sending something in the mail. That's Bitcoin to me. I don't care about who created it. I'm using it because it allows me to transmit
value from A to B with no questions asked, to anyone in the world, in an instant, for
very cheaply and for very fast. That's why I would use it. So let
me level set a bit here. Yeah. I know enough about Bitcoin to be dangerous. I am in the space of energy depletion peak
oil, fiat currency, end of growth, climate change, environmental issues, biodiversity,
systems ecology. And I would say the vast majority of people
in that space are either ignorant about Bitcoin, or antagonistic about Bitcoin because it requires
energy to mine, and that energy contributes to climate change. 100%. So my interest in Bitcoin came about because
I could see two or t
hree steps ahead that at every can kicking moment in the global
west, that the US and other central banks would not choose austerity. That we would print more money to offset our
problems, and therefore there would be not only a continued, but an accelerated biophysical
debasement of our monetary representations of reality. And there had to be some alternatives to that. I actually bought Bitcoin at $70, and I sold
it at 100 thinking I was smart. I bought it again at 700, and I sold it at
300 bec
ause this thing sucks. And other things over the years. But you came into your interest of Bitcoin,
not because of the potential demise or devaluation of the US dollar, but because you wanted to
be able to quickly and cheaply get funds to your global freedom dissidents on the human
rights issues. So you talked about sending money to- Yeah, I didn't own any Bitcoin until 2017. I had been exposed to it for six years, and
I was like, "This thing is ..." I just wasn't sure. But you mentioned the Ukr
aine example back
in the Maidan revolution. Yes. Couldn't you use PayPal or Western Union or
things like that? No, because these people had their bank accounts
closed down. They had no way to receive money. So they didn't have a bank account, but they
did have a phone or computer. Yeah, of course. Yeah. Ukraine is very wired. And here's the interesting thing. Countries that have been hit hardest by ... You
talk about how we're not going to have austerity here. Correct. Politicians will do stimul
us. That's written on the wall. What we'll do is we'll have austerity over
there, where we can't hear the screaming of all the people who are suffering. That's going to happen. That's happening as we speak right now. Now, those countries are the ones that are
adopting Bitcoin the most rapidly. If you look at the capita usage of Bitcoin
and cryptocurrency, it is highest in places like Turkey, Argentina, Nigeria, places where
the local fiat system is collapsing. And that should be just very ration
al. That should make sense to most people. Just out of curiosity, what is the per capita
percentage number of people that use it in those countries versus the US? Do you know? Okay, so this was 2022, a global report, ownership
of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, percent of internet users aged 16 to 64 who own Bitcoin
or some form of cryptocurrency. The worldwide average is at around 10%, and
the US is at 12%. Thailand's at 20%, Nigeria 19%, Philippines
19%, South Africa 19%, Turkey 18%, Argentina 18%
, Indonesia 15%, Brazil 15%. So I've just named six of the biggest recipients
of IMF aid ever. Brazil, Indonesia, Argentina, Turkey, Philippines,
Nigeria, Thailand. Oh my God. So just out of curiosity- All of it between 15 and 20%. Does it show all the countries in the world? What are the bottom few? The least ownership. Do you have that? Yeah. And again, this is one data point. A lot more needs to be done, but a lot of
very advanced countries like Japan, Italy, Poland, Israel, and China. Who kn
ows there? Yeah, who knows? All I'm saying is that you have two drivers
for Bitcoin adoption. One is fiat collapse, your local currencies
collapsing, and the other one is political repression. So in China, we don't know the true Bitcoin
stats because it's impossible to know. But what we do know is there's a ton of Bitcoin
adoption in China. Well, and the other thing is many of those
countries that you mentioned, there is no fiat collapse because they don't have any
fiat. They have to use US doll
ars. Yeah, exactly. And in general, I think that's what I just
said is a good thing for you to think about. There's two reasons to want Bitcoin. Digital gold, digital cash. It's either that you want a better savings
technology and your government bonds are just not doing the job, and you want something
that over 10 years is going to really hold your purchasing power, which is what gold
has done. Gold has held its purchasing power since ancient
Rome. The cost of a beer in ancient Rome is the
same
amount of gold as it is today. It's kind of crazy. Or the amount of gold it cost to buy a bread
in the time of Nebuchadnezzar is the same as today in Whole Foods, pretty much. It has preserved purchasing power because
there's no such thing as alchemy. You can't just make gold out of silver or
whatever. You got to dig it out of the ground, and it
gets harder and harder to dig. Now, Bitcoin is similar to that, but it's
also digital cash. It has vulnerabilities, but it can be quite
private, and it
's unstoppable. So it's like cash. It's like me paying you. The government doesn't have to know about
it. They can't socially engineer us. It's just a payment. A bear instrument payment like we used to
do, but it's on the internet. So it does these two things really well. And those things are going to be really in
demand this decade if you just think about two words, devaluation and de-platforming. Those are going to increase exponentially
over this decade, all over the world. What's de-platform
ing? What they did to WikiLeaks. Oh, okay. Kicking them off PayPal, or kicking them off
Patreon for not having the right politics. Now, first it'll start happening to extremists
on the edges, but then it starts to come to the center, and you'll see that. Okay, you are the very first guest out of
70 that I've had talk about Bitcoin, and you are a global expert on it. Would you be willing to talk to me like I
am a junior high school student, just because I want to get some of the foundational tene
ts
before we get into some of the advanced questions, which I've been thinking about. Real briefly, maybe just give short one to
two minute answers and we can get through a bunch of questions. What was the foundational philosophy of creating
Bitcoin, or whoever created it? They wanted digital cash. They wanted an internet of money. That's what Satoshi Nakamoto wanted. If you read the white paper, they wanted an
ability for two internet users to transact without a third party in the middle. There
's a lot of reasons for that. A reliance on third parties has led to both,
again, devaluation in our currency, which is most obviously seen in the global south,
but also now it's being seen in the west. That was something that wasn't the case once
Toshi made Bitcoin, we had the global financial crisis, sure, but we didn't have high inflation
in the dollar. But guess what? There was high inflation all across the world
at that time, outside of the core. And then at the same time, they were worried
about censorship, de-platforming. So again, devaluation de-platforming. They were worried about third parties saying
no. And this is just growing, you have a lot of
reasons to want to have just a quick transaction with somebody else without having to ask permission. So Bitcoin is what we call permissionless. It might be that you were in the United States
during Operation Choke Point under Obama, and your dad blew glass that people used to
smoke pot in, and he got de-banked. I met a Bitcoin deve
loper who is that person. She got into Bitcoin because her dad ran a
small business and was de-banked by Operation Choke Point. Could be that you're a sex worker. It could be that you are involved in guns,
that you're a gun trainer. God knows what. It could be that you want an abortion and
you live in Mississippi or something like that. There's a lot of reasons why people want to
have private digital transactions that don't give away their identity, and I think it's
absolutely core for democracy
. A good example is Hong Kong. When the Hong Kong students and activists
were protesting against the CCP takeover in 2019, they had to use the subway system. In any large urban area, you have to use subways,
and they didn't want to use their octopus card, which is their metro card, to get on
the subway because it could be tracked and then they could be fired from their job, or
suspended from their university if they saw somebody getting off at a protest. So they would line up with cash to buy on
e-time
use cards. Huge lines. There's photos of this all over. So I really think it's important for us to
have digital cash if we want to defend our democracies. This is really, really important. But in any event, I think that Bitcoin is,
very simply, separation of money and state. It's a way for us to just peer-to-peer transact
as individuals on the internet. And it's basically emailable money. That's the longest and short of it. And technically there's eight billion humans,
and it's if you do
have a cell phone or a computer, you are part of that monetary open
society that could technically have Bitcoin. It's very similar to email protocols. The Bitcoin protocol is a protocol. Any client can speak to it. You can build any client that speaks to it. So any Bitcoin wallet in the world, I have
ones on my phone that are made in Argentina, Israel, all over. They all speak the same language, just like
email speaks the same language. Just like Google or Yahoo or AOL all could
communicate with
one another because it was open. So Bitcoin is open, it's open money for everybody. So I can send Bitcoin to the West Bank from
my living room in California in three seconds. The fact that people don't understand that
this is a revolution, it just blows me away. How is that not interesting to you? How are you going to send money to the West
Bank? Does anyone else in the world other than you
and whoever received that in the West Bank, know that that happened? If we follow the right steps, no. Th
ey have no idea. If we are lazy, yes, you can be seen. And in fact, the US government has arrested
a lot of people who have been sloppy with Bitcoin, who've used it for crime. And it's fair to say that in its early days,
it was used for a lot of what I would consider crime. I think that now accounts for a tiny percentage
of its overall use. But I think to focus on that is very similar
to focus on the aspect of crime during the early encryption debate in the 1990s. So Senator Biden at the time an
d President
Clinton wanted to ban encryption, they wanted clipper chips in American phones, they wanted
to have full access to all digital communications because they were worried about terrorists
and criminals and pedophiles. Now, guess what? If they had their way, we'd have no privacy
in the United States of America. We'd have a police state. But they lost. The courts ultimately sided against them. We don't have clipper chips, and we have Signal
on our phones instead. Now guess what? Do all dr
ug dealers and criminals use Signal? Of course, but that's not a reason to take
it away from us. It's going to be the same thing with Bitcoin. At the end of the day, by 2030, most people
will use Bitcoin in some way or another, and it'll just be like email. It's an advancement in this area, and our
policing will have to adapt to it. That's my take on that element of it. I have more fundamental basic questions. But on your prediction there by 2030, how
confident are you of that? Very. The existin
g currencies are failing. They're not doing well, and they're not sufficient
for the world's population. There are billions of people who are unbanked,
but many of them have access to a phone. This idea that money today is so gated. You have to have ID, you have to prove yourself. You have to show that you're somebody to use
money, to me, is totally unnatural. It should be a basic human right to transact
with somebody else in the world. So this has led to the financial exclusion
of so many peopl
e. What you need to know is that KYC and AML
policies are financially exclusionary. They leave out the most vulnerable and disenfranchised
people in the world, and that's not fair. KYC is know your customer. Exactly. Okay, so I have some holes to poke in what
you just said. But again, for the benefit of my systems ecology
audience, that is accounting the decline of mammalian species and keep building in the
ocean, let's start ... What is blockchain? Let's just briefly start there. So Satoshi cre
ated Bitcoin as a decentralized
money- Created Bitcoin as a decentralized money system
for the world, and the only way to do it without corruption inside the system was to decentralize
the issuance of money. The issuance is what always wrecked all these
other experiments with digital cash, with E-money, with E-cash, there was always like
an issuer who could get arrested or who could print a bunch of money and devalue your savings. So the question was how do you decentralize
issuance? And they di
d this through something called
Nakamoto Consensus, which is related to what we call proof of work. So this is a computational competition. So this is why people buy Bitcoin mining machines
and they'd run them all around the world and they compete. What they're doing, they're not printing Bitcoin,
they're receiving it as a reward for work. So if you prove that you've done a certain
amount of work in the Bitcoin system, you get new Bitcoins. And these Bitcoins started at 50 bitcoins
every 10 minu
tes. This was in January 2009 when Satoshi started
the system. And every four years, that amount of Bitcoin
that comes into the system gets cut in half, we call it a having. So for four years there was 50 coming in every
10 minutes, then 25 and then 12 and a half, now we're at 6.75, that's going to go all
the way to zero in the year, like 2130. So ultimately there's a limited amount of
Bitcoin that will ever exist, that's the most important property of Bitcoin, is that if
there's 21 million of t
hem, that no one will be able to print more. That's very unique among all digital currencies. In fact, Bitcoin is the only digital currency
that's not virtual, meaning it has a tie to the real world, meaning because you have to
expend electricity to move it along, it has a tie to the physical world, and all these
other currencies don't. That's what I was so interested in your work,
you're showing how the currency system got detached from the real world decades ago. I think this offers a compelli
ng different
model where the reserve... The base money that we use could actually
be tied to real world resources, and I think this could be very healthy for us. But anyway, all this is to say that Satoshi
didn't use the word blockchain, they used a word called timechain. So blockchain was invented later to describe
the fact that the information that's stored in Bitcoin is done on different computers,
it's not done in one place. It's in the cloud on thousands of distributed
computers. And then p
eople went on to make a lot of other
blockchain tokens and cryptocurrencies and stuff like that. And so how long is the blockchain now? It's like 300 gigabytes, and everybody who
runs a full Bitcoin node has every single transaction that dates back to January 2009. And it's stored in- Include the ones when you sent Bitcoin to
people in Ukraine? Exactly, yeah. All of them of them are there. We'll say all Bitcoin transactions are there,
now there are new technologies that allow you to use Bitcoin
without proof of work called... basically it's layered money. This is important to actually note, just like
society went from using gold as money to paper notes, to credit cards, we layered money,
we sacrificed certainty for convenience, we layered money. Bitcoin will also layer, so there's like a
thing called the Lightning Network, which is a way for you and I to transact instantly
and very privately with Bitcoin without any proof of work, so without any mining involved- But it's still using Bi
tcoin, but it's not
a direct Bitcoin? 100%. It's not a token. It's not some other crypto, it's Bitcoin. But there's ways to use Bitcoin where we're
not on the chain. So it's not accurate to say that all of the
transactions are in the chain, but basically you have a canonical record of all Bitcoin
activity, yes going back to the beginning. So let's just say that this does scale and
your predictions are correct. Then perhaps once the trust and the network
effect of this really expands globally, ma
ybe a higher percentage of the transactions would
be in this layered way, with Lightning- Oh, totally. Or something new and the actual blockchain... Yeah, it's not just... Lightning is what I'd prefer because it's
still sovereign. You can use Lightning in a way where you control
it, where you can be your own bank, that's the motto of Bitcoin. But what's likely going to happen is what's
happening now is custodial, basically people buy Bitcoin on Coinbase or whatever, and they
think they have Bitc
oin, they don't, they have a paper claim to Bitcoin, they have a
claim on Bitcoin. And this is what we found out with FTX is
that you had... I don't know, they thought they had 8 billion
on FTX or whatever worth of Bitcoin, and there was zero. So this is why it's so important in Bitcoin
to control your own funds to self custody, we do not want to be rugged. So it's very important if you own Bitcoin
to learn how to own it yourself. This is super, super important because if
it's not your keys, not
your coins, that's what we say. So briefly, you described that this is a physical
cost using electricity. Yes. What is the difference between proof of stake
and proof of work, and why is this important? Well, briefly, in proof of stake, the people
who own the most of the thing get to determine the state of the ledger and the rules of the
system. So it's kind of like a centralizing effect. It's like it ends in some sort of oligarchy. That's like the end of that road. Bitcoin and its special bran
d of proof of
work is much more decentralized. The fact that you have a lot of hash rate
does not allow you to control Bitcoin, and it doesn't allow you to take my Bitcoin or
change the rules. And there's a really good book on this if
you're interested in the politics of it called the Blocksize War by Jonathan Bier. Basically back when Bitcoin was more vulnerable
in 2017, people who controlled 81% of all the mining in the world tried to change Bitcoin
and they failed. Because owning a lot of has
h rate does not
allow you to control Bitcoin, but owning 81% of all of the Ethereum or all of the whatever
coin that's on proof of stake, does allow you to control that coin. So it's very fundamental. It's very, very fundamental and very important
that we have one coin that cannot be manipulated by the rich, by the billionaires. That's key. So a common pushback on Bitcoin is that it's
a heavy energy used item to create a currency in effect. So how much energy does it take to mine Bitcoin? Maybe
you could along the way, describe what
is mining? And what is the case for justifying this energy
usage? Sure. So- There was this big hubbub with Greenpeace
is very antagonistic towards Bitcoin that I read recently, but go ahead. Yeah, this is a great conversation, I think
it's important. Bitcoin is processed, issued, stabilized by
mining. Mining is the act of expending electricity,
feeding it to the Bitcoin network. This started with laptops and home computers
at the beginning. And as more peop
le join the system, Bitcoin
has this very special thing called the Difficulty Algorithm. So every 2016 blocks, which about two weeks,
2016 times 10 minutes, the difficulty resets. So if there's been a lot more people joining
the network, it goes up so that the amount of time it takes to mine those blocks stays
at 10 minutes. So the network stabilizes. That way, for example, when China... When the CCP banned Bitcoin mining two years
ago, and the network lost 70% of its electricity, it didn't die.
What happened is a few days later, it adjusted
way down and everybody was at the same level of difficulty- The math problem became easier? Way easier, yeah exactly. So the more people mining, the harder the
math problem. And it's basically very simply, it's like
it's just computers that are specialized these days called ASICs to guess numbers, it's just
guessing. And you're trying to get a certain number,
you're looking for something called the nonce, and it's a very, very, very, very, very tin
y
number, and you're just trying to find it. And you have these computers just going, going,
going, and every 10 minutes or so, somebody finds it, and then that person helps secure
a bunch of transactions to the chain, and then we move on and we build from there. It's kind of like a- And they get compensated for that energy use? Yeah, they paid in two ways. They get paid with the block subsidy, which
right now is 6.75 Bitcoin and will decrease over time to zero. It's kind of like a bootstrapping
mechanism,
ultimately there won't be a subsidy. And then they also get paid fees, so when
I send you some Bitcoin, I attach a small fee. So over time, the fee market will be what
drives Bitcoin mining. The fee market rather than the mining market? Well, what miners will be getting in return
for expending electricity will be fees, ultimately. Today it's mostly- Rather than the reward for solving the nonce? Right now, it's like 90... There's a website you can check out called
Clark Moody's dashbo
ard. It gives you all the data, but right now it's
like 95% subsidy, 5% fees. Over the next 50 years, that'll change to
the other way around. Okay. That's part of my question... Dude. I have so many questions. Yeah, that's fine. So 50 years from now, let's just say at some
point it switches so that it's 5% subsidy or reward or nonce and 95% fees. Yes. At that point, does the whole network use
less electricity than today? I mean, these things are extremely hard to
predict. I'm not going to preten
d to make predictions,
but over time I think you have two important factors. One is that there will be an increased demand
for Bitcoin generally, so there'll be more and more people mining. So there will be on one hand more energy- Except- Expended. Except 50 years from now there's going to
be 20 and a half million of the 21 million coins already minted. Yeah, but- There's going to be minting fewer and fewer
coins, right? Yeah, nut the miners won't be worried about
that. They're going to be tryi
ng to make the money
off the transaction fees that people and institutions and governments spending. I mean, what I'm saying is that the amount
of new Bitcoin being issued becomes less relevant in the future and eventually goes to zero,
or the project fails. For Bitcoin to succeed, fees have to drive
Bitcoin miners from a pure economic perspective, they have to make enough money off just the
fees alone 50 years from now or else the project doesn't work. So it has to be used as a store of value a
nd
a store of commerce in the future for it to work? 100%, and I think what's most likely is that
on chain Bitcoin transactions that take 10, 20, 30 minutes will become very expensive
in relative terms, and they'll be kind of settlement kind of what Fedwire does or what
central banks do, or maybe for very, very, very big things. You may do an on chain transaction, but for
retail... If you're someone and you want to use Bitcoin
to buy coffee or send a remittance, you're not going to be using on c
hain, you're going
to either be using custodial Bitcoin through a service or you're going to use something
like Lightning. So in any event, you won't be paying that
fee. Okay. So I have my own response to this question,
one of the few that I have an opinion on in this topic. But how do you justify, the large energy use
of mining for Bitcoin? Yeah. Well- Because it's a double expenditure of energy,
you spend energy when you create the currency and then when you buy something with it, that's
anoth
er claim on energy and resources in the world, yes? In a sense, yes. I think that the most important thing is to
acknowledge that Bitcoin's valuable to a lot of disenfranchised people around the world. That's like the thing I've uncovered in my
work. So once we establish that, and I know that
people will be skeptical about that, but you just got to go talk to people, talk to people
in Lagos, talk to people in Buenos Aires- I'm not skeptical, you've convinced me. No, but a lot of... It's fair to
be skeptical, people should go
out and do their homework, but do honest homework on this. And you'll learn that Bitcoin is important
for tens of millions of people around the world. And if your work is successful, you hope that
tens of millions turns into hundreds of millions or billions. Yeah, I mean, from the human point of view,
and again, we're about to get to the environment, it would be fair if there was one currency
standard for the world that no one could manipulate, that would be equal
rules for everybody. This is not some sort of redistribution of
scheme, you're not going to be able to take from people remotely, but it ensures equality
of monetary opportunity. It means that Jeff Bezos no longer can call
up the Fed and get a bailout, it's the same rules for everybody. It doesn't mean that there's not going to
be rich and poor or huge inequalities or any of that stuff, but it does mean that it's
going to address something very key in that we've had this thing called the Cantill
on
effect, where the people who create the money get to give it to their friends first, and
they benefit the most, and then the effects trickle down. So as far as the energy stuff, once you understand
that it's valuable, well then we have to start thinking in context. So for example, and we'll do two things, number
one is what kind of energy is Bitcoin using? And then how much? So I like to think of it in raw energy as
well as carbon footprint. These are two kind of key ways to look at
it. So ra
w energy, yes, Bitcoin uses the amount
of electricity of a small to mid-size country, and it fluctuates. It could be Poland, it could be Argentina,
the Cambridge electricity... Cambridge Bitcoin mining website has this
data, you can see the raw amount of electricity expended. What I think is important to realize are two
things, context. So the world's big countries use a lot more
energy than the world's small countries. So for example, I think Norway uses more electricity
- it's four million peo
ple - than the bottom 40 countries in the world combined. So first of all, we have this vast energy
inequality that I've seen you talk about. So that's one thing to understand when we
say, well, Argentina. Well what if I were to tell you that air conditioners
in the United States use way more electricity than Argentina? So when it comes to carbon footprint, which
is what I'm particularly interested in, Bitcoin has a smaller carbon footprint than the cruise
ship industry, for example. And I think
about that a lot. Cause cruise ships are great. I understand they give people jobs, but ultimately
it's a luxury thing for people, like no one's going to die if we don't have cruise ships. Bitcoin's not a luxury for a lot of people. It's going to end up becoming a lifeline for
many, many people. So I think it's all about the value proposition. Do you think it's important for us to spend
our very scarce energy on? I say yes, based on what I've seen. So you're saying that it requires energy and
t
hat's a good thing because if it didn't require energy or- Could be corrupted. Or bio physical cost, it could be corrupted- 100%. The whole logic for why it works wouldn't
hold. Correct. It needs to consume a real world scarce asset. And I don't mean scarce in terms of non-renewable,
I just mean not infinite, not easily producible. Well- The second part of what... Go ahead, yeah. Go ahead. No, go ahead. No, the second half of this that I find really
interesting is that there's a guy named Daniel
Baton, he's a Kiwi, an environmentalist from
New Zealand who's done a lot of work on this, he's got incredible data and charts. So by his metrics... So Bitcoin is already more than half powered
by nuclear plus renewables, and it's increasing at 6% a year in this direction by what he's
seeing. Now, why does this make sense? This makes sense for now because in our current
climate, we have deflation in renewables. They're getting cheaper and cheaper and cheaper
and cheaper. I know a lot of that's
because of government
subsidies, but it is what it is. They're getting cheaper and cheaper and cheaper
and cheaper, for now, I know that you have opinions on that, but... I do. Bitcoin miners are only going to use the cheapest
possible energy. Their margin of profits really tiny, so they
cannot compete with a residential consumer of energy. They cannot pay 10 cents a kilowatt-hour. They can only pay like three, four, five,
six you're already starting to get... It's too expensive. So that's why y
ou see Bitcoin miners in Siberia
experimenting with OTEC off the coast of Hawaii. That's why you see them in... This is a great thing to learn about, why
was all the Bitcoin mining in China? Because the Chinese government overbuilt hydro
in the south central part of the country, and you just had massive dams spinning, and
the energy wasn't going anywhere, it was being curtailed. So people were like, oh, we'll take that. So they were taking all of this, and then
when the rainy season ended, they
had to go up to this dirty coal up in where Xinjiang
is and used that until they got kicked out by the CCP two years ago. But the reason why all the miners were attracted
to China in the first place was because of this massive excess hydro energy that nobody
was using. So generally speaking, Bitcoin miners use
energy that nobody else wants or that would be wasted otherwise. So this is one of the other things. For now. Well, increasingly so. We have no evidence that this won't continue
to be the
case. Well no, I can easily foresee a time 10, 20
years from now where coal is the cheapest energy because we've... Then Bitcoin miners would use coal, maybe
I should be very honest about that. Right. So here's the point I wanted to make, I think
there's a superficial critique from especially the climate movement that, oh my God, you're
burning energy to create this currency, how unsustainable is that? Well, think about the energy implications
of our US dollar, of the petroldollar. It used to be
95%, now around 80% of our money
is created when a commercial bank makes a loan. And there is no tether at all to anything
scarce or any resource. Now it's down to about 80%, the other 20%
is created when the government has a deficit and they don't have enough money to pay for
it. And they create money, they spend it into
existence. Also, there is no... When a dollar is created, there is the tiny,
tiny, tiny energy connotation of the linen that it's printed on, but that's minuscule. The major i
mpact is we have created trillions
of dollars instantly in claims on copper, oil, forests- How about this- Dolphin habitat, et cetera. Every war that the US has fought abroad since
'67 has been paid on the national credit card. So literally spending into existence. For example, Americans are on the hook to
pay 1 trillion... We've already paid a trillion dollars on interest
alone for the Afghani Iraq wars, we're going to pay another trillion by 2030. So all of the 9/11, post 9/11 wars are credit
card wars. So exactly, you're right. All of these things we're doing out there
with these massive oil powered ships and all this stuff is all possible because of the
currency system, 100%. And so that is an egregious use of energy
that the critiques by Greenpeace and others of Bitcoin don't take into account. This is our real monetary system is a huge
burden on energy. Like I mentioned before, what is the carbon
footprint of quantitative easing? We have these artificially low interest rates
and
printing all this stimulus and all this other stuff- Or just the US military alone. I mean, the US military is the largest consumer
of fossils in the world, so- By the way, I really respect the fact that
you use the semantic term of fossils as opposed to fossil fuels. Well, I mean- Because we name them fossil fuels, that adds
power to us using them as fuels, but go on. Yeah, the point being that Bitcoin is an experiment. I mean, I think it's going to succeed, it
could fail for a variety of reaso
ns, but it's small, relatively today. But what we've seen is that for macroeconomic
reasons, it uses primarily energy that's wasted or stranded, and this tends to be increasingly
the renewable for now. And I think that's really interesting because
the US... It's a lot cleaner, it's a lot greener than
the US energy grid, by far. So it's funny that New York Times loves EVs,
even though the human costs of, as you've pointed out of electric cars are egregious
in terms of where you get the rare earth
s and stuff are. But then they attack Bitcoin mining machines. I mean, a Bitcoin miner is an electric car,
it's just a user of energy. A Bitcoin miner is just, is only going to
be as green as what energy is used to power it. And guess what? Bitcoin miners use a greener portfolio than
EVs do. So it's like, I think people just miss that
point, it's very important. Bitcoin mining itself has no emissions. It's the energy that's used to power it. So we have to look at what exactly is powering
it. And
what's really amazing, what I'll just
say that I think is important is that never before have humans been able to take advantage
of stranded energy for economic purposes in the same way. We tend to settle on rivers along places where
we can power and electrify. So you have all this stranded geothermal energy
on the western coast of the North America, South America in the Rift Valley. You have potentially OTEC in the oceans. None of this made any sense to harness because
it was always far away f
rom where people lived. Now, where the Starlink and Bitcoin miners,
you can just take advantage of that. You can also very importantly, make a lot
of money mining Bitcoin off of methane emissions from both gas fields and landfills. We're just starting to uncover what that's
going to mean. But basically, Bitcoin could run for the next
50 years off of landfills alone, off of just the emissions of landfills alone. So what you're saying is- But we're not technologically there yet. Over the next 10 y
ears, you're going to see
companies and entrepreneurs start to figure out how to mine Bitcoin off landfills and
off of methane emissions and in jungles and in the middle of the ocean, none of this has
happened yet. It's all starting to emerge. Is does it assume all that advanced technology
that might turn waste into a potentially stable currency alternative in the future, does that
require higher and higher Bitcoin prices to manifest? Yeah, I mean, I look, think that overall,
yes, if Bitcoin doe
s not increase in value to a certain extent, it's going to be hard
to economically make things work. I think that Bitcoin will become really valuable
for the two reasons I laid out earlier because of de-platforming and devaluation. I think people are going to want an open neutral
currency. I think that that's going to... People are going to really want that in the
future, people already wanted it a'cross the global south. Now here's the thing, so let me give you a
micro example that helps color
my thinking on this. A friend of mine, his name's Erik Hersman,
he's out in Kenya, he's born in Sudan. He's a entrepreneur there. He started a company called Gridless. And what they do is they do... Originally it had nothing to do with Bitcoin,
it was micro-hydro-energy grid stuff. So they go to a village that has a stream
running through it, they bring in a micro hydro, they drop it in, they run a little
tube, they put a fish guard on it, the water comes back, zero environmental impact, and
now
all of a sudden the town has cheap energy. Now, typically, who's going to make the investment
on that? And how are you going to make money on that
is the big question. So they've figured out that Bitcoin mining
is how you make the money. So you come in right away, you mine Bitcoin
and you start making money and the town gets electricity, which it doesn't have, and it
gets it way cheaper than it otherwise could. And the company that comes in the investment
doesn't have to be Bill Gates. They're
not altruistic, they're making money
also. So what you're going to start seeing in East
Africa with the Gridless and other companies are huge tracks of people who've never had
electricity before coming online as a result of Bitcoin mining, because there's no other
thing in the world that can harness that energy the same way. It is a very unique type of energy consumer,
and the other thing that's really cool about Bitcoin is... 'Cause I'm interested in energy grids, it's
the best demand response
technology we've ever seen because of the way that it can turn
off precisely, perfectly, anytime. It's not like a steel factory where if you
turn off for too long, the steel will set, you have to... These Bitcoin miners can turn off on a dime
like this. So what I thinks going to end up happening
is a lot of these grids are going to have overbuilt renewables doing Bitcoin mining,
and then that can just shift into whenever the grid operators need it, you're seeing
this in Texas already, which is r
eally interesting. So I have 20 more questions, but I think we're
going pretty long. So let me hit the high questions and then
maybe you could introduce me to your friend, Erik to talk about the energy and you could
come back- Totally. To take a deeper dive in this. So I now understand the logic on monetary,
sovereignty and open societies and freedom and monetary colonialism and some of those
issues. I have long understood and been aware of the
demise of fiat currencies from a limits to growth p
erspective. But isn't what you're describing a serious
threat to national governments currencies and fiats currencies especially exactly at
a time when they're becoming insolvent. So I think first and foremost, it's a threat
to dictators because if you think about what Bitcoin is and what America is premised on,
it's really like three things, free speech, private property and open capital markets. And Bitcoin exemplifies those things. It gives anybody in the world private property,
real private
property, not private property, that you have to rely on the government to
protect. You can protect it with math. You can actually own something that you can
pass on to future generations with math. This is a huge revolution. You don't need ID, you could be anybody in
the world. It gives you private property, it gives you
free speech. No one can censor your Bitcoin transaction,
which now is powering social networks, by the way, Nostr is the big one that I'm following
that's really interesting. A
nd it also is 24/7 available, it's an open
capital market. China, the CCP, Putin, they need three things. They need censorship, confiscation, and closed
capital markets. They cannot power the Yuan or the Ruble without
these things. So I think at first, yes, dictators will like
Bitcoin 'cause they can go around sanctions do this stuff, but ultimately it's a disaster
because it moves power of the economy, of the money into the hands of the people and
away from the government, that's really bad for
dictators. My optimistic view is that it's really good
for democracies. A good democracy should be okay with people
having power, with people having power over the government, with the government serving
the people. So I think what ends up happening is some
of our excesses in America get paired back. For example, like social welfare is paid for
by taxes in America, it's not paid for by borrowing. So if we all of a sudden had a Bitcoin standard
or whatever, we wouldn't have any problems paying f
or social benefits. We'd have problems paying for wars in Asia,
that's what we'd have problems paying for. And you know what? Maybe the citizens would've eventually say,
"Screw that, we're not going to have wars in Asia." So I think that there's a lot of nuance here,
but I'm very hopeful about a system that has a little more restraint to it. I think that we've taught ourselves that we
need this flexibility, but what does the flexibility give us? I mean, it's created a monster. I mean, for the av
erage American, this system
since post '71, political economy has not been great. But if you're in the 1%, it's been amazing. So yes, they will fight it, 100%. Well, this gets to another one of my questions
is if Bitcoin... Let's just say, I've told my friends this
for a long time, that I think there's a 50% chance that Bitcoin goes to 500,000 and a
50% chance it goes to zero. But in the case that it does go up astronomically,
like 20, 30, 50 X from where it is, doesn't the Cantillon effect appl
y here in spades? In that those early adopters of Bitcoin will
be trillionaires, so there is a serious wealth inequality in the world? So that's a really good question that I've
thought a lot about, and I think that's one of the reasons I spend a lot of time advocating
for communities that I care about, to learn about Bitcoin. I never say to buy Bitcoin, I say investor
your time in it, learn about it. If nothing else, it teaches you about money
and about the world around you, which I think is re
ally helpful for people. I think that ultimately it is going to reduce
some of the grossest inequalities we have. Like I told you, it's not a redistribution
of scheme. Tax policy for governments is going to have
to change. It's going to have to be more like consumption
tax. It just is. But for example, the whole system we were
talking about for the first hour of this conversation is predicated on one country being able to
mint the reserve currency. If Brazil wants $30 billion and we are allied
w
ith Brazil, it's paperwork, we'll just give them $30 billion. If Bitcoin is a reserve, we have to be like,
wait a second, who's Bitcoin? It becomes much more of a careful thing. We have to be much more reasonable about it. We have to be more prudent about it. I think that it introduces a lot more caution
to what governments do with their spending. It ties them to their people a lot more. One of the reasons why we had these wars in
America that have been really destructive I think to our country
over the last 20, 25
years is because the government doesn't have to tax that for them or do war bonds. World War II was almost entirely paid for
by direct taxation that citizens knew about or by war bonds. So Americans bought the equivalent of three
or 4 trillion of war bonds. Something like 80 million Americans bought
liberty bonds during World War II and there was a draft and taxes were very high. Okay, fast-forward to today. No draft, there are no war taxes and there
are no war bonds at all.
So it's all paid for on the credit card. That's very damaging to democracy. Even philosophers like Kant knew about this. They said, "If you borrow to fight, it's not
good for your country." So I think our system is just out of control
when it comes to this sort of thing. It needs to be pared back a little bit. And I think your work on how our credit system
has become completely detached from the world around us is one of the reasons you see so
much destruction and inequality. Could Bitcoin surv
ive a great simplification? When I sat there and saw your last presentation,
I was thinking to myself, this is kind of what it looks like. I mean, I think it could happen at the same
time because I think what the great simplification is on one level and in your terms is directly
related to fossils and the bubble coming down, but it also represents the collapse of sovereign
debt. One of the things is this, you got whatever
it is, $80-90 trillion of sovereign debt, $50-60 trillion of corporate deb
t. You have $150 trillion plus debt market. The problem with so much of that debt is that
it's what I would consider odious. Odious debt is debt that is borrowed by a
government without the population consenting. And so much of what the IMF and World Bank
lent to the world over the last 50, 60 years has been odious to dictators to corrupt government
officials. Now there's not as much direct borrowing from
the IMF or even from China. It's still really important. It's half of the debt - 60% of the
debt of
the Global South is still borrowing - but 40% is bonds. But that's just the government selling out
their people, selling out the future of their people. So between bonds and debt, it's just this
enormous amount of odious debt. I think that has to unwind one way or another. It's not going to be pretty difficult. I think that unwind will coincide with your
simplification, but I think ultimately we will have debt, government debt. Governments will always be able to borrow. We're going to h
ave community debt, we're
going to have municipal debt, we're going to have corporate debt. But it will have, I think, a much less exaggerated
role in the world. And I think more will be done with value for
value, local community, peer-to-peer transactions. I think that the ingenuity that gets unlocked
by the whole world being on the same currency standard is incalculable. I mean, today, the wage disparities that happen
and the exploitation that happens because of the different currencies is unf
athomable. And if we were all on the same currency, wow,
I just think it would make such a massive difference. I'll give you one small practical example. If you want to send money to Nigeria today,
the government imposes a fake rate of 450 naira per dollar. Naira is the currency they use there. If you send to Western Union, your recipient
only gets 450 per dollar, but the street rate is 750, meaning the government steals 300
naira per dollar for every dollar that goes. You send Bitcoin, your rec
ipient gets the
actual full 750. Imagine if all of a sudden we had an equal
world where we were all using one currency. I mean, I think that's the vision. It's going to have a cost, a big cost, and
one of those costs is going to be energy. The question is what kind of energy does it
use? That's an open question. I think that things like OTEC are so fascinating
to me. If I'm a US government treasury official becoming
aware of the things that you've said here, I would be quite scared. Can the gove
rnment shut down Bitcoin or its
usage the way that FDR did with gold? And how do government central bank digital
currencies fit into this conversation? Yeah. Well, remember when I said that Bitcoin has
2,016 blocks, and then there's an adjustment in its difficulty. That's 6102 backwards, meaning Executive Order
6102, which FDR passed to outlaw gold. Satoshi chose April 5th as their birthday. April 5th is the day that FDR passed 6102. I think there's a lot of evidence that shows
that Satoshi was
trying to create something that couldn't be taken from the people. So far so good. I mean, I think it's very unlikely that there's
some sort of network attack on Bitcoin. What we're seeing, which is much more likely,
which we've seen for years, is attacks on Bitcoin users. So you're going to see governments make it
illegal, governments tax it, do all these things. I think that's much more likely. But at the same time, you have game theory. This is a rival risk world. You're going to have some of
these small nations,
and I've been very critical, I'm one of the few prominent Bitcoin voices that's very critical
of Bukele in El Salvador, but I'm not critical of his Bitcoin law. I'm critical of his authoritarianism and his
prison industry stuff. I think that- How did that work out, by the way, when El
Salvador linked their currency to Bitcoin? It was like twice as high as it is today. Well, okay, so first of all, I think it's
exaggerated the role Bitcoin has played. Basically the government
has said it's bought
some Bitcoin. They use dollars down there. That's one of the reasons he did it is because
he's not sacrificing anything. He doesn't control the monetary policy, the
Fed does, and he doesn't get bailouts. So I think it was a good idea for them to
push Bitcoin as something that people can use, but ultimately it's had a pretty limited
effect in the country. It's not something that's really taken over. But the- The more broader question is we've had some
80% and 90% drops in Bi
tcoin three or four times at least. Sure. And if that continues in the future, and we
have countries that are linking financially poor citizens of the world, it can't have
such a swing in their property. What do you think about that? One possibility is that we could go to a kind
of a Bretton Woods system with Bitcoin eventually. I mean, you're already starting to see countries
start to go back to gold. This is clear. You read the FT every day. There's more countries trading with gold,
buying gol
d, selling debt, moving away from fiat, going back to gold. Okay. So I think it's possible you could see governments
start using Bitcoin as a savings instrument for reserves, but I think we're pretty far
away from governments and big banks and stuff like that and people using Bitcoin as a currency. I think that that's pretty far away, and I
think that that probably just doesn't happen until Bitcoin is less volatile, which I think
will take a long time. I think these things naturally fit together
. You're right, I'm not going to use Bitcoin
as my daily currency if it's fluctuating like that. It would have to chill out. It has to get bigger. Look, think of it this way. At its peak, Bitcoin was like a trillion dollars
at its peak when it was like 69,000 or whatever. Gold is 10 trillion. The gold market moves, but it's not like Bitcoin. A 1% change in gold is a big deal. Bitcoin just moved like 3% today. But if Bitcoin was 10 times bigger, it's going
to be a lot less volatile. And the bigge
r and bigger and bigger it gets,
the less volatile it gets. This is just, I think, to me, kind of straightforward. If it does succeed, it ends up getting less
volatile, more people use it, it becomes more acceptable. But you started with zero, and if you're going
to go from zero to world reserve currency, it's not going to be a straight line. It's going to be a rollercoaster. But I don't know. We'll see. I think the geopolitical outcome of Bitcoin
is totally like who knows. What matters to me as
a human rights activist
is that it's an incredibly important tool for activism. I think for environmentalists and for people
concerned with energy, all eyes have to be on the dynamics of the energy consumption. What is it consuming? What is the trajectory? And if you want to actually get involved and
make a difference, how can you help? Because this thing's not stopping. The way to kill Bitcoin would be to issue
sound money that's not going to be devalued ever again and it's not going to be cen
sored. That would kill Bitcoin- Or take down the internet. If the internet goes down globally for 24
hours, the Bitcoin just doesn't move anywhere. Doesn't kill Bitcoin. We'd have to live in a world literally without
internet, which just see seems very impractical. But if governments were responsible, then
you wouldn't need Bitcoin and it would die. People wouldn't feed it energy. But until that day, people will feed it energy. So the question is- Governments are never going to be responsible,
I
don't think. Exactly. Why I lik the perspective of environmentalists
like Daniel Batten is that they're proactive. They've seen what Bitcoin does, they understand
the value proposition. They know it's going to grow. So they're saying, okay, how can we seed investments
so that people start to realize that they can make a lot of money mining Bitcoin off
of landfills and off of methane and off of renewables instead of fossils. I think that's a rational way forward if you
care about this. That's ju
st something I care about. Let me ask you one more Bitcoin question,
and then I'm going to get into closing questions. Congratulations, Alex. This will be the longest podcast I've ever
done. It's been a lot of fun. By the way, just to say I'm so appreciative
of your open mind and your willingness to talk. It's really fun, and I really, really respect
that. So thank you. Dude, I'm trying to figure it out. Everyone has a piece of the story and I'm
learning. I started this podcast to share knowledg
e
with the systems ecology network I had, but in doing this, I've learned a ton from people
like you and others. I saved this piece. We have to mention this. I don't know if your listeners know what OTEC
is, but it's a way to harness energy from the different thermal layers in the ocean. It really hasn't made sense because how are
you going to get the energy from a barge out in the ocean to the land where people need
it? So it's kind of just been this idea. It's not a new idea. I mean, it's been
around for a long time. But now think with Bitcoin mining. There's this guy named Nate Harmon. He's got a project out in Hawaii where OTEC
is... Basically, where has there been exploitation
in the tropic seas? That's where OTEC makes sense. That's where it works. Doesn't work with cold water. It's so perfect as a serendipity thing that
you could have these OTEC farms, which are just these boats or barges with a liquid in
a U-shape, and it just moves the liquid and it powers. You could have this
all over the Global South
creating electricity, and it could be bootstrapped by Bitcoin mining. Bitcoin miners would be the first customers
of all these OTEC farms. Then eventually they would connect it to the
land and power everything else. I think the role of Bitcoin as a bootstrapper
for new experimental renewable energies is really important and really interesting, and
there's nothing else that can approximate that. Anyway, I just wanted to leave that kind of
hopeful message out there befor
e we go to the conclusion. Well, building on the hopeful message, just
so that I can visualize what you're visualizing, pick a date 15, 20 years from now, and how
does Bitcoin change or improve what I view, and I think you view, as a post growth world
that we're going to have a warmer temperature? There probably will be, I mean, probably the
middle of the distribution, there will be more humans. They will probably be materially poorer on
average than today- Yes, yes. ... because we'll be on the
downs slope of
the carbon pulse. There will be international migrations and
political upheaval and all kinds of things. Paint a picture of what that looks like, that
future where Bitcoin is much more prominent than it is today. I think Bitcoin is the lifeboat, not the iceberg. I don't think it's a magic panacea. I think it's a practical tool that people
can use voluntarily. No one could force Bitcoin on you. In fact, they're going to try to force you
away from it. If it works for you, you can us
e it. And if you're a business person or an entrepreneur
or an engineer or just somebody who needs to send money home from your job, you could
use it. It's a tool. It's a practical tool that listeners should
learn how to use and should educate themselves about. I think it's not going to save us from what
I really believe will happen, this sort of simplification type thing. I don't know how much of it is related to
financial crisis versus an energy crisis. I mean, obviously they're very tied toge
ther,
but I do think we're in a bubble and that bubble will unwind. I think that the majority of the world's population
already knows what that feels like and we in the West don't. Sri Lankans know what that feels like because
they're experiencing it right now. It means you wait three hours for gas at petrol
stations. It means that your currency goes to zero. It means that you don't have any food. It means that people starve. Now, we have not experienced that in the west
in a long time, obviousl
y, except in Ukraine, I guess if you want to say that's a western
country, because we've sheltered ourselves from that. I think that could happen here, but that doesn't
mean Bitcoin won't be a valuable tool for everybody. Again, I think it's a lifeboat, it's a tool. You should learn how to use it. It'll be really useful. I think it's going to be valuable because
things could get difficult in this next 20, 30, 40 years, I think. What it will do is it will preserve value
over time and will allow y
ou to do what you want to do. I know that there's a lot of right wing crazy
stuff about central bank digital currencies around there these days, but a lot of it's
true. The governments do want to control your energy
and food consumption, and they want to prevent you from buying certain things. And they're going to do that through digital
CBDCs, and Bitcoin is the alternative. I mean, it's the plan B.
I think, again, it's not a panacea, it's not some magic wand thing. It's a tool. It can be used
for good, it can be used for
bad, but it will transform the world. So I think people should really educate themselves
about it. Yeah. The CBDCs, that would be another conversation
topic. Totally. Because I do think we're headed that way,
and I think you're right. Oh yeah. It's because they want to control the money
supply, and then they could go negative interest rates and it wouldn't have the crazy impact
on our current financial system. Okay. This was awesome. You're a follower of this podcast
so you know
what's coming next. A few closing personal questions. Sure. You are great simplification fluent, and you've
thought about this and have been clearly working in this sector as a career choice. Do you have any personal advice to the listeners,
not financial per se, but at this global time of meta crisis? Yeah, I think as we move through this, it's
so important to be empathetic and understanding with people who've already gone through a
great simplification because they can teach us so
much. So I would try to learn more about the third
world debt crisis. Talk to people you know from the Global South. Learn about how did they get by? They didn't go anywhere. They're still there. That's the thing about the simplification. I think it'll happen. It doesn't end humanity. It's a massive setback and it's going to be
a tragedy and it's going to be really difficult, but we're going to keep going. Just like in Peru in the 1980s, they had a
great simplification. It became twice as hard
to earn the same amount
of calories. And guess what? They survived and they figured out a way to
thrive. So let's talk to our fellow human beings who've
already gone through the great simplification and let's learn from them. That would be the biggest piece of advice
I could give you. And let's stop living in our bubble, our post
'71 Western bubble. You're the first person that has said that,
and I couldn't agree more. That is what I think is going to happen too. It's going to be a tragedy and i
t's going
to be chaotic, and we're going to get through it. That's this conversation is how do we best
get through that towards some saner more desirable outcome? I can tell you, someone in 1980 in Peru would've
loved to have 24/7 access from a phone to an asset that could not be seized or confiscated
by their government. That would've been really useful. And that's the thing, whether it was political
oppression, like my ancestors fleeing the Holocaust or whatever, or countless Syrian
or Eritrea
ns refugees I've met, like Afghans, people have not had an opportunity to bring
their property and wealth with them or to preserve it in a time of distress until now. And the number of people I've met who've literally
brought their life with them through Bitcoin, whether it's on a flash drive or by memorizing
the seed phrase, is pretty astonishing. And it's pretty cool. It is a way out. So at least I think it can help. I think it can help. At worst, it's a tool that's helpful. So we'll see. Wear
ing my systems ecology hat, I have to
think about this more, but it does almost seem like Bitcoin could be one of another
cans to kick in service of the maximum power principle. It will be good for those humans that adopt
it but may not be good for the ultimate ecological overshoot. But I'm going to withhold my opinion on that. I mean, that's very possible. Yeah. What about young people? I heard a crying child in the background. How would you change your advice to young
humans listening to this?
I think that young humans are going to get
a lot of good advice. I think that the unique one I can give is
I think that young people should learn about money. I think we can put Bitcoin aside for a second. When I was growing up, I went to a good public
school in the United States. We didn't learn about money. We didn't learn about personal money. We didn't learn about credit cards. We didn't learn about the way banking system
works. We didn't learn about the dollar abroad. We didn't learn about
any of that stuff. And you know what, it's just as important
as all the other subjects you learn in school and it's not taught. So I guess as families, as communities, we
need to teach our children about what is money, what is credit? I know there's different theories and people
argue, but great, let's get our kids involved in those debates. Do you remember what I said at my lecture
at Stanford when I was talking about money? You said a lot of things. I said when I was 14, my dad had the conver
sation
with me that was kind of awkward about where babies came from, which I already knew, but
he never had the talk with me about where money comes from. Yes, yes, yes. Which none of us really know. Yeah, and look, you want your- So I agree with you. Look, some people, they believe in commodity
money, and some people believe in credit money and it's fine. Just teach your kids what you know. I mean, it's important for them to learn,
and then they'll pick their own holes and they'll find their o
wn way. But if you're 16, 17 and you've actually thought
about this, I think it'll really help you get ahead. It'll help you plan your life. It'll help you be more responsible, especially
when you can learn a little bit about interest rates and about borrowing. I think that that's really important. Yeah, anyway. What do you care most about in the world,
Alex? Well, I'm biased. I'm a human rights activist. I care about freedom because I think it's
so central, because without freedom, it's difficu
lt for us to improve as humans, it's
difficult for us to stop annihilating the environment. I mean, the stuff I've seen in my research
and the people I've talked to based on authoritarianism in the Global South has led to an exploitation. I mean, it has led to just the enormous pillaging
of natural resources. I mean, forget emissions for a second. I mean, the environmental crimes that happened
not only during imperialism, but just in the '60s and '70s and '80s alone in the Amazon,
in West Papua
and all these places is totally unspeakable. It happened because there's no rule of law
in those places. I mean, these multilateral lending institutions,
they like Suharto as a client because they're not going to have to deal with street protests
or a supreme court. They could just deal with the dictator and
that's it. So I think freedom is so important because
without freedom, we can't protect our planet. We have a program at the Human Rights Foundation
called Defending the Defenders, where we
support environmentalists from inside dictatorships. Now, most of them are in prison or you've
never heard of them. If you're an environmentalist in Egypt or
in Iran or in China, you are either dead in prison or in exile. You can't be an environmentalist in these
places. So I think it's so, so important that we addressed
freedom first and foremost, or at least in a conversation. I wonder if that's coming to the United States. I mean, we could see it. I'm telling you. Again, Greenpeace, that's fo
r another conversation. But Greenpeace in India was deplatformed from
their bank a few years ago. It's going to happen to all environmentalists
at some point or another. You will wake up and your money will be no
longer working. You will find out very quickly as a non-profit
organizer that if your money doesn't work, it's very difficult to do your activism. So that's why I like the fact we have a backup
plan. That's why I want to get all these podcasts
on record quickly. I'm mostly kidding. If y
ou can wave a magic wand, what is one
thing you would do to improve human and planetary futures? Or should I guess? Well, I mean, I guess it's pretty obvious
from the context of our conversation, but it would be awesome if all countries were
liberal democracies. I understand that may be impossible, and maybe
even my work points to the fact that liberal democracy can only exist if there's countries
to exploit. I don't know. I don't know. We don't have a counterfactual. But I will say that I do be
lieve in democratic
peace theory more or less. I don't think that democracies like to fight
each other for a variety of reasons, mainly because the people are holding the government
accountable. And I think that if all nations were somewhat
more democratic or liberal democratic, there'd be a lot less violence, a lot less exploitation,
and we would address planetary challenges much better. That's the wand I would wave is to turn all
the authoritarians into Democrats. But I understand that that re
quires a total
transformation of our own systems. And some of our psychologies, perhaps. Yes. Yeah. Awesome, dude. So good to take a deep dive with you. I've recently chosen to do this format where
I interview a guest for the first time and give them a mic to explain their passion and
their expertise and their worldview. But if I had you back again, what is something,
a subset of this conversation, what is one topic that you're super passionate about that
we could take a full deep dive just on t
hat one thing? Yeah. I'll give you three quick examples that I
love. Sorry. I mean, we'll just do it. I mean, one would be just going kind of more
deep into the IMF World Bank thing. It's just such an incredible story, crazy
story of how these institutions came to be and what they do and how they basically get
away with what they do. The second thing would be the French colonial
currency. I would love to come on with someone, a friend
of mine from Togo, for example, to help explain it to your au
dience. It's a shocking thing. It's a shocking thing that this thing still
exists. The third thing is the Israeli Palestine currency
thing. I did a really deep dive into this. What most Palestinians have told me they don't
even know, is that when there were Nobel Prizes given out for the Oslo Accords, something
that happened at the same time was called the Paris Accord, Paris Agreement, Paris Protocol,
sorry, Paris Protocol. The Paris Protocol was an agreement that Arafat
signed giving up all mo
netary rights for Palestinians. So they don't have their own currency, they
can't have their own currency, they can't have their own central bank. They don't control any of the labor laws with
regard to people going in and out with West Bank into Israel. That was something that they gave up to get
political independence. Now, we find out later that that's not a good
trade-off. You need economic and monetary independence
to be free as a nation. This is absolutely clear. Today, Palestinians use th
e currency of their
occupier. Can you imagine how psychologically damaging
that is? I've met a whole bunch of Palestinians in
Gaza. I spoke to a guy in Gaza over Telegram. He's really into Bitcoin. It's the only way he can get money from his
family. It's crazy. So there's a whole bunch of Bitcoin stuff
happening in Palestine. I think that would make for a really interesting
episode, and I can bring on a friend from Palestine. Those would be my three suggestions. Yeah. Awesome. Lots going on in t
he world that I'm unaware
of. It's a big story and a big challenge that
we face. Thank you for all your work on human rights. Thank you for your time today. And to be continued, my friend. Yes. Thank you so much, man. Really appreciate the conversation. If you enjoyed or learned from this episode
of The Great Simplification, please subscribe to us on your favorite podcast platform and
visit thegreatsimplification.com for more information on future releases.
Comments
Me listening to this episode: "WAIT, WHAT!? I didn't know that!" (every 30 seconds)
Very interesting discussion! It was actually really refreshing, usually I agree with what your guests are saying from the start, but this one really challenged a lot of the opinions I had going into it. I appreciated the international perspective--this has been the first time someone has articulated a use case for Bitcoin that makes any sense at all to me. I'm still not completely convinced, but it definitely opened my eyes to a new perspective, so thank you for that!
This was an absolutely fascinating conversation
I want Axel Gladstain and Simon Michaux to be on the same podcast and talk about bitcoin and energy/materials. Then we can have this triage that Nate is always talking about
I've been thinking about this conversation non-stop since I listened to it yesterday. I just read The Quest for Digital Cash by Mr. Gladstein for some historical reference about the concept of Bitcoin and the values behind it. Freedom. Perhaps it's not perfect, but I sense it's a viable rope to grab in an effort to escape the fire. I don't know much, but I will keep learning. Thank you both for your hard work & time.
Nice to have a guest with a different point of view (different from most guests). I think I disagreed with every point Alex Gladstein made except that the developed nations (especially the U.S.) are exploiting the less developed nations. Well of course that's true, it's a basic tenet of Capitalism that you increase profits by externalizing costs. Alex also said he was a big fan of Capitalism. He does realize Capitalism is 𝘸𝘩𝘺 𝘸𝘦'𝘳𝘦 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘰𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮, right?
Correction, in the US, the real cost of food and shelter has gone up since 2000. Just check it, take median or mean hourly earnings and divide it by case Schiller index or Big Mac index and you’ll see you can afford less food and shelter over the last 20 years
What a great podcast. Nate is well on his way to becoming a bitcoin advocate. Love the open mind and the questions he kept having. That was me 2 years ago and I spend about 3-5 hour s a day still trying to answer them. I recommend listening to Troy Cross to learn more about the energy side of bitcoin and understanding Jeff booths thesis * cheers
As a 74 year old techno-moron, I feel very vulnerable as a result of this conversation. Often, it seemed like I was listening to a foreign language, a language that I will never learn in my life time. Should I be concerned? Also, what happens when there is a glitch or disruption in the electronic "grid"?
"So the implication is that, in order to label ourselves as democracies, we have to be international authoritarians?"... thanks for asking this question Nate. I really struggled with your guest's politics and checked out shortly after this section. Enjoyed the postwar global economic timeline though. Would love a deeper dive on that stuff if anyone can recommend a YT or pod because my brain is bad at reading. 🙃
Eye opening facts podcast And Bitcoin sounds like a Wise and Safe Currency for us All Thank you Mightily Alex 🕊🌏🙏🏼❤️
Wow, epic conversation. So revealing and insightful. Thank you Alex and Nate. Inspiring.
Let me start by saying Gladstein is incredibly intelligent and clearly well-versed in the monetary colonialism system; and I found myself agreeing with quite a bit of his perspective – but when he got to Bitcoin I had to pause. As a fellow analyst and options trader, Nate, I couldn’t let this one go without some serious critique. Some Critical Analysis While I agreed with his observation that many of the existing currencies are failing, he failed to mention the Petro Yuan and BRICS – both of which could completely disrupt dollar dominance and significantly aid in de-dollarization. BRICS is backed by gold and rare-earth minerals; these types of pegged-to-commodities-currencies stand a chance (and have proven so in the past) to stay grounded in some form of physical reality. Bitcoin, on the other hand, acts as a no limits instrument of Modern Monetary Theory – further detaching us from our ecological reality. His fantastical speculation that Bitcoin is emissions free literally had me pause the video and take a walk to get some air. Bitcoin is parasitic having double energy expenditures and siphoning from multiple systems without even the notion of any type of return to these systems. The hardware alone required (we will leave out the energy to power the computers for a moment) to “mine” requires the most complex of computer chips built using the most specialized and highest refinement of our ever-dwindling supply of minerals. Not forgoing the energy expenditure (diesel) to extract, distribute, refine (often nat gas or coal with massive amounts of water), then distribute further (using more diesel). On the energy to power this specialized hardware, many nations’ power grids are strained, breaking, or have already collapsed with examples of rolling blackouts, brownouts, and prioritization in places such as Puerto Rico, Texas, Shri Lanka, South Africa most recently, with many other countries across Africa and South and Southeast Asia. There is no excess energy. Though I did find the whataboustism with the cruise ship industry and air conditioners an entertaining way to deflect for the massive (nearly always overlooked) ecological cost of Bitcoin. But let’s suppose for a moment Bitcoin is and does all he says, the Lighting Network entirely and completely defeats Bitcoin’s original intent of transparency. These layered payment protocols are simply duplicating the existing tertiary wealth system we have now - just a digital version of our current petrodollar system experiment – just more claims on future energy we won’t have. Unfortunately, his energy and mineral blindness has prevented him from seeing this. In addition, there is no real anonymity or ability to secure or otherwise hide assets. Time and time again the US government has been able to easily recover most Bitcoin ransoms, though the price volatility will often cause the value or amount recovered to drop, despite the same number of Bitcoins being recovered. The reigning king of Bitcoin Sam Bankman-Fried of the spectacularly failed FTX flat out admitted on Bloomberg’s “Odd Lots” Podcast that Bitcoin is a Ponzi Scheme; as does author Stephen Diehl, a Financial Technologist, on Bloomberg. Gladstein is right, Bitcoin isn’t a redistribution scheme, it’s a Ponzi Scheme. Its success is based solely on a belief or ideology and getting more people to put their beliefs, energy, and dollars into Bitcoin. In closing, I found Gladstein’s virtue signaling more of the same old hollow, hypocritical, western values coupled with a massive dose of Xenophobia & Sinophobia - that the Western way is the only way. Additionally, why must there always be this flat-earth and binary view of China? They are not our enemies, they are a 3,000-year-old civilization that, while we might not always agree with, we must work with. Non-interference and cooperation should be our goals in a globalized world, not othering each other because of our differences. From the perspective of the Global South, he is demonizing much of their population, their values, cultures, governments, and beliefs as less than, while openly admitting to giving dissidents guilt money funneled via Bitcoin to fund Color Revolutions in the most antithetical attempt to make up for exploitative Colonialism. This is not how we solve the problem. It’s just trying to change things via the backdoor. A more PR-friendly version of CIA coups that make you feel good. It will only create more sovereign interference, deaths, and dependence, which I suppose is the goal of Western imperialism anyways. Sovereign independence for the Global South will never be accomplished this way. It's just the global version of the failed American Dream. He kept repeating the word freedom, over and over, but can he define what it means and looks like in action? For the US, for each nation, country, and person? More importantly, why is your version of freedom the right one? And lastly, it is possible to believe that NATO not abiding by the Minsk Agreement is a factor that contributed to the war without being crazy or pro-Putin or pro-war crimes. It’s a double standard without acknowledging the massive war crimes of the US in Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen, plus those committed against the African Americans and Native Americans on your own soil. Gladstein states it himself when speaking of the Iraq invasion and oil dollars but fails to mention how many Iraqi citizens had to die for that (it is about a million). In the book, “Rising Out of Hatred” the grandson of David Duke didn’t change his white supremacist values and beliefs because he was ostracized and isolated by his fellow students at the liberal college he attended. Even though they disagreed with his belief system, he was welcomed and invited to join and work with them. He was able to see the humanity of the people he'd been trained to hate. This is what led to his evolution and change. The Western world needs to evolve as well by rethinking its values and belief systems. That is the only way to truly atone for the exploitation and deaths created by colonialism and US imperialism. As an American living the Global South, it is very clear, all they want the American bully to leave them alone. Any kind of interference, even with good intentions, is a net detriment. Just let them be. They’ll be fine without you, trust me.
Wonderful conversation. Couple of things to clarify - bitcoin energy use is a function of energy availability. So in a future of less surplus energy, it will simply operate securely on less energy since the energy required to attack the network is also more scarce and expensive. Secondly, in theory, Bitcoin doesnt require the internet. It requires transmitters and receivers of short wave radio communications to send and receive the latest blocks. That technology has existed for 300 years. Calculations could be done by hand because of the difficulty adjustment. Energy use would be that which feeds the human brains of those doing the calculations.
Thank you Alex & Nate, several revelations (for me) in your discussion. Much appreciated.
Thank you for such a high quality podcast
If you have this guest back on in the future (or I see he's been in the comment section some, maybe he'll see this), I have a couple of questions: 1) Much of Nate's work and many of his guests' have shown quite convincingly that the six continent supply chain is not sustainable and will likely not survive a Great Simplification (and if it does, it will be greatly diminished). The future is likely much more regionally-based. On the other hand, the presumption of Bitcoin is a world that is more and more intertwined. A one-world currency only matters/makes sense when people from various countries are making a lot of transactions and have very intertwined economies. Would Bitcoin make sense in a less globalized world? 2) At 1:58:10, when discussing the Cantillon Effect, Alex makes an off-handed comment about how future taxes will need to be consumption taxes. In the context of wealth inequality, that's actually very concerning, as consumption taxes are quite regressive. This conversation has focused on individuals vs governments, and I'm surprised that companies/corporations didn't really factor in at all. The US may nominally be a democracy, but even more than that, it's an oligarchy. Wouldn't Bitcoin as currency just give corporations even more power? If, say, a company is paying their employees in Bitcoin, it's essentially the same as paying them under the table. It becomes impossible to know if the company is, say, paying their employees minimum wage. Companies would no longer be paying into workers comp or unemployment insurance. If Social Security and Medicare are suddenly funded by consumption taxes instead, that's vastly more regressive and really hurts the working class. So taking wages out from under government oversight has the strong potential to weaken labor protections and social programs, right? And wouldn't the combination of a more regressive tax structure and weaker labor protections/social programs increase wealth inequality rather than reduce it? Thank you for an interesting discussion!
Over the top excellent Nate. Thank you and please keep going.
Excellent content today. Alex Gladstein's case for Bitcoin is similar to that of Andreas M. Antonopoulos whose YouTube channel is aantonop. The emphasis on democracy as critical for the people to have good money is reinforced in "The Dictator's Handbook" by Alastair Smith and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. Left brain idealists of the right or left think a strong leader is needed for their big changes, but the bureaucratic mind doesn't produce that. Iain McGilchrist's "The Master and His Emissary" explains that issue, which is critical to the perspective Daniel Schmachtenberger provided. "The Dictator's Handbook" explains that Western countries like to deal with dictators because it is so much easier than dealing with a democracy where the people might have their own ideas. Alex Gladstein's suggestion for a show about the French Colonial Currency in Africa would be a great way to expose that game for its evil face and impact on people.
Thank you so much, Mr Hagen. Jeff Booth and Jason Lowrey would be good guests to round out your bitcoin inquiry.