（中英字幕EngSub）拜習通話！習近平強調「和穩信」三字究竟咩意思？中美定期對話能否長期持續？《蕭若元：蕭氏新聞台》2024-04-03

各位網友 Dear netizens 昨晚我聽新聞 I listened to the news last night 知道習近平和拜登終於通了電話 know that Xi Jinping and Biden finally had a phone call 這件事其實是在意料之內的事 This incident was actually something that was expected 但在這個時候通電話 But talking on the phone at this time 究竟裡面有什麼含義呢？ What exactly does it mean? 在美中局勢如此危急的時間 At a time when the situation between the United States and China is so critical 我無論如何都要作一些分析 I have to do some analysis anyway 雙方如何解通這個電話 How do both parties resolve this phone call? 為何在這個時間通電話 Why ar

e you talking on the phone at this time? 通這個電話有沒有什麼得益 Is there any benefit from this phone call? 三點 three o'clock 我會回答這三個問題 I will answer these three questions 首先 first 《前中華膠懺悔錄》有聲書已經放上Patreon The audiobook "前中華膠懺悔錄" is now available on Patreon 你只要加入Patreon就可以免費聽 You can listen to it for free just by joining Patreon 今日已經是第二天 Today is already the second day 每天都會放15到20分鐘 I put it on for 15 to 20 minutes every day 足夠你聽 enough for you to listen to 它會永遠放在哪兒 where will it stay forever 你跟著章節去聽 Just fol

low the chapters and listen. 第二 second 我想問大家 I want to ask everyone 我看這件事是否受歡迎 I'll see if this is popular 決定是否製造有聲書 Deciding whether to produce audiobooks 有聲書是不會賣的 Audiobooks will not be sold 專門給Patreon的人聽 Exclusively for people on Patreon 永遠放在哪兒 Where to put it forever 第二本是應該做哪一本呢？ Which book should I make as the second one? 《邊緣回望》還是《李嘉誠》 "邊緣回望" or "李嘉誠" 《被消失的80年》是最難做 "被消失的80年" is the most difficult thing to do 《被消失的80年》很長 "被消失的80年" is very long 但這本是最有意義的 But this is the most meaningful 《被消失的8

0年》 "被消失的80年" 但三本書 But three books 很大工程 Very big project 第四，還是做《石火光中的74年》？ Fourth, or make "石火光中的74年"? 都是這幾本書而已 It’s just these books 大家留言告訴我 Everyone, leave a message and tell me 以及聽聽看有什麼意見 And let’s see what opinions you have 以及下一本是這樣的 And the next one is like this 我會用新方法 I will use new methods 我講頭一章 I'll talk about the first chapter 然後讓其他人讀 and then let others read it 原來很多人都是這樣 It turns out that many people are like this 中間偶爾我又會講一些 Occasionally I will talk about some more 然後結尾也是我講的 And I told

you the ending too 因為要我讀完實在太辛苦 Because it’s too hard for me to finish reading 但我又覺得有些東西不是我讀 But I also feel that there are some things that I don’t read 就真的不是太好 It's really not very good 好了 alright 拜登與習近平2日晚通了電話 Biden and Xi Jinping had a phone call on the evening of the 2nd 其實就是 Actually it is 布林肯和王毅見面 Blinken and Wang Yi meet 在數個月前已經確認了這次會通電話 This phone call was confirmed several months ago 問題是什麼時候通話 The question is when to call 大家知道 Everybody knows 現在有幾個日期是重要的 There are several dates that ar

e important right now 一個是對拜登來說 One is for Biden 就是選舉 It's the election 他要表示他在中美關係上做了些事情 He wants to show that he has done something about Sino-US relations 而且中美關係不是很緊張 And the relationship between China and the United States is not very tense. 在他的操控之下 under his control 這一點是他想表達的 This is what he wanted to express 而且他想給壓力習近平 And he wants to put pressure on Xi Jinping 利用通話的機會 Take advantage of phone calls 穩住了幾處的局勢 Stabilized the situation in several places 包括了俄烏、台灣和南海 Including Russia, Ukraine, Tai

wan and the South China Sea 尤其是在5月20日 Especially on May 20th 520 520 台灣新總統上任之前 Before Taiwan’s new president takes office 千萬不要製造事端 Don't cause trouble 習近平這個時候開完了兩會 Xi Jinping has completed the two sessions at this time 現在說6月將召開三中全會 Now it is said that the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in June 第一 First 他也需要穩定局勢 He also needs to stabilize the situation 因為地緣政治局勢太嚴重 Because the geopolitical situation is too serious 嚇到外資不敢去中國 Scaring forei

gn investors away from going to China 他一定要顯示出來中美關係是穩定的 He must show that Sino-US relations are stable 在三中全會之前 Before the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee 詳細我遲些再講 I’ll talk about the details later. 看看雙方講什麼 See what both sides say 根據ABC According to ABC 這不是官方的公告 This is not an official announcement ABC引述美國高級官員稱 ABC quoted a senior U.S. official as saying 這些是很小心的 These are very careful 是哪個傳媒報導 Which media reported it? 是哪方面漏料出來是完全不同的 It is completely different in which aspect the m

aterial leaks out. 因為雙方立場的衝突 Because of the conflict between the two sides' positions 這是ABC，美國方面 This is ABC, the American side 兩人通話持續了105分鐘 The call between the two lasted 105 minutes 以拜登的精神來說這算談得久的 In Biden's spirit, this is a long time talking. 第一 First 談得久表示可以談 If the discussion takes a long time, it means it is ready for discussion 第二 second 他們是去年11月在三藩市舉行峰會 They held a summit in San Francisco last November 那時說會定期對話 At that time, I said I would have regular conversations with you. 在兩三個月前 tw

o or three months ago 布林肯會見王毅已經說 Blinken has said during his meeting with Wang Yi 準備安排他們通電話 Prepare to arrange a phone call with them 拜登選擇了在這個時候通話 Biden chose this time to make the call 這很明顯 it's obvious 還有一個多月就是台灣總統就職 There is still more than a month until Taiwan’s president takes office 菲律賓的局勢也是嚴峻 The situation in the Philippines is also serious 這兩點是有緊迫性的 These two points are urgent 11月的美國總統大選 November U.S. presidential election 對中國來說 for China 剛剛開完兩會 Just finished the two sessions 開了跟外資的峰會 He

ld a summit with foreign investors 開了博鰲論壇 Opened Boao Forum 而且有消息傳出 And there is news 6月將召開三中全會 The Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will be held in June 習近平很急需顯示中美局勢 Xi Jinping urgently needs to show the situation between China and the United States 至少沒有惡化 At least it didn't get worse 讓外資敢回去中國 Let foreign investment dare to return to China 以及外國人敢回去中國 And foreigners dare to go back to China 因為外國人完全的 Because foreigners are completely 中外的遊客 Chinese and foreign tourists 外國人去中國減少得很

可怕 The number of foreigners going to China has decreased horribly 這就是ABC說的 This is what ABC says 好了 alright 法新社 AFP 又是白宮消息 Another White House news 白宮永遠告訴你 The White House will always tell you 它是在實施拜登上台的時候宣佈的政策 It's implementing the policies Biden announced when he took office 就是有競爭、有合作 There is competition and cooperation 但是一定要有對話 But there must be dialogue 三條路線 three routes 不是為了宣佈什麼 Not to announce anything 是對去年11月峰會的進程進行總結 It is a summary of the process of the summit last November. 就是經過了半年之後

Just after half a year 到底這半年 After all, this half year 雙方發生了什麼事情呢？ What happened to both parties? 我們想想 let's think about it 其實他們有些事情是同意了的 In fact, they agreed on some things 在去年11月峰會之前 Before the summit last November 拜登一直說要對話 Biden has always said he wants dialogue 中國不肯在軍事上跟美國對話 China is unwilling to engage in military dialogue with the United States 用這件事情來為難美國 Use this matter to embarrass the United States 搞到局勢很危險 It's dangerous to get into a situation 結果11月的見面 The result was the meeting in Nov

ember 北京讓了這一步 Beijing gave in 結果雙方的軍隊 As a result, the armies of both sides 每一個層次都有對話 There is dialogue at every level 這是美國贏了的事情 This is something America won 以及雙方的對話 and dialogue between the two parties 中國要求一件事 China wants one thing 美國不要再鼓勵台灣搞獨立 The United States should no longer encourage Taiwan to pursue independence 表明不支持台獨或者反對台獨 Express that they do not support or oppose Taiwan independence 拜登原理上答應了 Biden agreed in principle 但是不肯放在聲明上 But he refused to put it in the statement 沒有公開宣傳 no publ

icity 但是台海問題 But the Taiwan Strait issue 大家不要互相刺激 Don't irritate each other 這是習近平所要的 This is what Xi Jinping wants 好了 alright 有兩件事 there are two things 他們坦誠地交換對軍事合作 They exchanged candid views on military cooperation 所謂合作不是合作 The so-called cooperation is not cooperation 就是對話 Just a conversation 現在建立了很多層次的對話 Many levels of dialogue are now established 軍委、總參謀部、戰區都可以對話 You can talk to the Military Commission, the General Staff Headquarters, and the theater 以免擦槍走火 To avoid misfire 真正的第二個進度就是關於吩坦尼 Th

e real second progress is about fentanyl 由川普提出吩坦尼以來 Since Trump proposed fentanyl 拜登跟進 Biden follows up 終於習近平答應了 Finally Xi Jinping agreed 減少或者查緝吩坦尼的成分的輸出 Reduce or check the output of fentanyl ingredients 尤其是輸入墨西哥 Especially entering Mexico 這是有進展的 There is progress 這兩件事有進展的 There is progress on these two things 其實總結下來這兩件事有進展的 In fact, in summary, there has been progress in these two things. 然後台灣問題 Then the Taiwan issue 雙方都不想鬧事 Neither side wants to cause trouble 其實雙方都不想鬧事 In fact, neither party

wants to cause trouble 馬英九前往中國 Ma Ying-jeou goes to China 我已經看明白了 I already understand 中國在短期內 China in the short term 在兩三年內 within two or three years 是會對台灣用友善的攻勢 Is it going to use a friendly offensive against Taiwan? 來拖住國民黨 to hold back the Kuomintang 要國民黨拖死民進黨的執政 Want the Kuomintang to drag down the DPP to death 尤其是在國防問題上 especially on national defense issues 然後表示只要像國民黨一樣就很友善 Then he said that as long as he is like the Kuomintang, he will be very friendly. 來瓦解台灣的心防 to break down Taiwan’s defe

nses 讓你們不要抵抗中國 Let you not resist China 這就是這兩三年會採取的策略 This is the strategy we will adopt in the past two to three years. 中俄關係 Sino-Russian relations 這永遠是拜登所害怕的 This is always what Biden fears 一直要牽引住習近平 Always keep Xi Jinping under control 讓他不要去援助俄羅斯 Tell him not to aid Russia 尤其是他的軍工事業 Especially his military industry 去年11月 November last year 這就是習近平說的話 This is what Xi Jinping said 與拜登會晤 Meeting with Biden 開啟了未來的「三藩市願景」 Opening up the "San Francisco Vision" of the future 這只是中國發出來的名詞而已 This is jus

t a term from China 美方從來沒有說過「三藩市願景」 The United States has never said "San Francisco Vision" 「三藩市願景」 "San Francisco Vision" 其實簡單來講 In fact, to put it simply 就是兩個大國之間不要斷鉤 That is, don’t break the ties between the two big countries. 不要完全斷鉤 Don't break the hook completely 不要陷入冷戰 Don't get into a cold war 不要擦槍走火 Don't misfire 保持溝通 keep communicating 就算不能夠改進雙方關係 Even if it cannot improve the relationship between the two parties 至少也要穩定雙方關係 At least we need to stabilize the relationship between the two

parties 而雙方團隊做了一些事情 And the teams on both sides did something 自從三藩市會面 Since meeting in San Francisco 美國派了很多人去中國 The United States sent many people to China 葉倫已經去了一次 Yellen has already been there once 即將開啟第二次前往 About to start the second trip 布林肯也去了 Blinken also went 貿易部長也去了 The trade minister also went 戴琪也去了 Dai Qi also went 這些重要的人 these important people 全部都去過中國 All have been to China 中美關係出現了企穩態勢 Sino-U.S. relations show a stabilizing trend 至少沒有以前滑落得這麼快 At least it didn't fall as fast as before 其

實到了最後川普的晚期 In fact, at the end of Trump’s life 雙方是完全斷了任何的溝通 The two parties have completely cut off any communication. 這是很危險的 This is very dangerous 就算當時美蘇冷戰也不會到達這樣的程度 Even if the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union was at that time, it would not have reached this level. 全世界都歡迎 The whole world is welcome 不過依然有些消極因素 However, there are still some negative factors 習近平開始批評美國 Xi Jinping begins to criticize the United States 這裡開始批評美國 Here begins to criticize the United States 有幾件事情

There are a few things 第一 First 環繞兩件事情 around two things 他投訴得最厲害的 He complained the most 一個就是台灣問題 One is the Taiwan issue 一個就是高科技問題 One is high-tech issues 戰略認知問題是中美關係必須扣好的第一顆鈕 The issue of strategic cognition is the first button that must be fastened in Sino-US relations 我要先解釋給大家聽 I want to explain it to you first 你穿衣服的時候 when you are getting dressed 第一顆鈕扣錯了 The first button is wrong 你後面的就不能夠扣了 You can't deduct the ones behind you. 所以最重要是扣好第一顆鈕 So the most important thing is to button the firs

t button 然後順著扣下去就容易很多 Then it will be much easier to buckle it down 中美關係的第一顆鈕 The first button of Sino-US relations 根據習近平來說 According to Xi Jinping 就是中國不是美國的敵人 That is, China is not the enemy of the United States. 你搞錯了 you made a mistake 我們是羊 we are sheep 我們不是狼 we are not wolves 這是認知的錯誤 This is a cognitive error 你跟我來往是有好處的 It's good for you to associate with me 我有些羊毛給你 I have some wool for you 這就是中國方面 This is the Chinese side 美國就說 The United States said 我知道 I know 我們的認知 our knowledge 你裡面是一匹狼 The

re's a wolf inside you 你只是披著羊皮而已 You're just wearing sheep's clothing 你趁我轉身就咬我的屁股 You bite my ass when I turn around 弟弟你以為我不知道嗎？ Brother, do you think I don’t know? 就像這樣 like this 習近平說不是 Xi Jinping said no 羊 sheep 我們是羊 we are sheep 咩咩 baa baa 叫得多好聽 How nice it sounds 是不是？ Yes or no? 這就是習近平說的 This is what Xi Jinping said 第一顆鈕 first button 大家一開始的認知就不同 Everyone’s understanding is different from the beginning 有幾個原則 There are several principles 習近平說這幾個原則真的很好 Xi Jinping said these principles are reall

y good 第一是以和為貴 The first is to value harmony 千萬不要打仗 Never fight 咦？ Huh? 就像黑社會一樣 Just like the underworld 杜琪峰那部電影 Johnnie To's movie 《以和為貴》 "Smooth Talker" 暗中找人給對方捅刀 Find someone secretly to stab the opponent 李林甫 Li Linfu 唐玄宗時期的奸相 Traitors in the Tang Xuanzong period 出了名的口蜜腹劍 Famous for being Honey in the mouth, dagger in the stomach 嘴上說得很好聽 He talks nicely 肚子裡面藏著一把刀 There is a knife hidden in the belly 表面就叫哥哥 On the surface, he calls me brother 哥哥、哥哥 Brother, brother 已經在背後拔武器 Already drawing wea

pons from behind 拔出劍來插你 Pull out the sword and stab you 大家表面上以和為貴 On the surface, everyone values ​​harmony 第二是穩 The second is stability 不要亂搞 Don't mess around 不要做一些突然的行動 Don't make any sudden moves 人們覺得 people feel 到底中國想美國哪個總統獲選呢？ Which president does China want to be elected in the United States? 拜登還是川普呢？ Biden or Trump? 我認為中國現在是選拜登 I think China is electing Biden now 拜登 Biden 以前很討厭希拉蕊 I used to hate Hillary 就選川普 Just choose Trump 發現川普很糟糕 Found Trump to be terrible 就選拜登 Just choose Biden 現在發現

Now found 這次川普回來 This time Trump is back 可能更糟糕 could be worse 因為川普有很強烈的不可預測性 Because Trump has a strong unpredictability 他就是不穩 He's just unstable 他忽然間做出一些事情 He suddenly did something 川普是讓人猜不到的 Trump is unpredictable 以及那些人說川普說說而已 And those people who say Trump is just talking 川普不是隨口說說的 Trump didn’t say it casually 在歷來過去幾十年的總統 Presidents over the past few decades 說了一些話 said something 然後很努力去實現 Then work hard to achieve it 百分比最高的人是川普 The person with the highest percentage is Trump 只是加中國六成關稅 Just add

60% tariff to China 這件事情已經受不了了 I can't stand this anymore 第二 second 以信為本 Based on faith 你說話要兌現 You have to keep what you say 你說不支持台獨 You said you don’t support Taiwan independence 中國說的話兌不兌現？ Does China keep its words? 中國說的話從來不兌現 China never fulfills its words 這等於是 This is equivalent to 我在《鬼新娘》中 I'm in "Spiritual Love" 周潤發已經說過 Chow Yun-fat has said 喂 Hello 不是要講義氣嗎？ Don't you want to be loyal? 是啊 yes 講義氣啊 Be loyal 義氣是用來講的 Loyalty is for talking about 不是用來做的 Not made for 義氣當然要講的 Of course we need

to talk about loyalty. 但是不用做的 But you don’t have to do it 好 good 講到這裡 Speaking to here 我說說習近平的看法 Let me tell you Xi Jinping’s views 其實習近平的軟肋在哪裡呢？ What is Xi Jinping's weakness as an intern? 有三點 There are three points 第一 First 一定不可以讓外界看到中美地緣政治這麼緊張 We must not let the outside world see that China-US geopolitics is so tense. 這麼緊張是沒有人敢去中國做生意 No one dares to do business in China when they are so nervous 美國人和外國人不敢去中國逗留 Americans and foreigners dare not stay in China 這是中國急需要改善的事情 This is something that

China urgently needs to improve 讓中國的經濟局勢可以穩定下來 Let China's economic situation stabilize 他的第二軟肋 His second weakness 就是台灣問題 It’s the Taiwan issue 因為台灣問題 Because of the Taiwan issue 美國已經不斷在佈置軍備在台灣周邊 The United States has been deploying military equipment around Taiwan 恐怕520之前就出事了 Afraid something happened before 520 他對台灣強硬 He is tough on Taiwan 便很容易變成雙方嚴重的對峙 It can easily turn into a serious confrontation between the two sides. 而終於北京在這個時候覺得時機未成熟 Finally, at this time, Beijing felt that the time wa

s not yet ripe. 不敢對台灣做什麼 Dare not do anything to Taiwan 於是便對習近平的威信造成很大的打擊 This caused a huge blow to Xi Jinping’s prestige. 第三個軟肋 The third weakness 就是科技 It's technology 尤其是人工智能 Especially artificial intelligence 一定不可以再讓美國不斷加強對中國 The United States must not be allowed to continue to strengthen its stance against China. 無論是科技還是投資上的制裁 Whether it’s technology or investment sanctions 這就是習近平整體的看法 This is Xi Jinping’s overall view 我們會在下一段影片講講拜登對整件事的看法 We'll talk about Biden's take on the whole thing in

the next video.