Matthew Berry's 2022 sleepers, breakouts and busts | Fantasy Football Happy Hour | NFL on NBC

time now for sleepers breakouts and busts connor rogers and matthew berry back with you here on the happy hour cheers tgif thank god it's friday that's what that means at a bar i feel like you know it's probably two for one jalapeno poppers back there something like that we need listen now that we're served by applebee's can we get some actual like can we get some food can we can we hook a brother up or you know like exactly you know we had the menus underwear and applebee's underwear and appleb

ee's today's a big friday for us all right time now for sleepers breakouts and busts yeah an exciting one to start with right we got to start with michael gallup who it's hilarious to me matthew how a guy necessarily not being ready for week one affects the perception of directors mind-blowing this is somebody that will play in a good offense with a high-end quarterback and the target share for the taking there with the mari cooper and cedric wilson out the door guys that combined for almost 30

of that target share it's on a platter here you like him i i really do he's currently going as wide receiver 71. you got to scroll quite a bit to find yourself some michael gallup on yahoo and to your point like he's not starting the season on the physically unable to perform list we will see if he's there week one sunday night by the way against the buccaneers right here on nbc i'm a company man of course but the fact is so whether he's there or not he's going to be there sooner rather than lat

er he's going to be the number two target in dallas and what we think is a good offense remember he had he had seven targets last year in five of the seven games last year at least one end zone target and six of his last nine games like jerry jones said if this were the super bowl gallup would be lining up and playing so we know that he's close that's a quote from jerry jones on august 31st i'm at wide receiver 59 he's going his wide receiver 71. and i'm probably too low on him at 59 to be hones

t with you so you know this is a guy who last year in a much more you know when he was injured in a much more crowded you know uh lineup because they got amari cooper there he was still wide receiver 43 on a points per game basis so top 35 top 30 within the realm of possibilities for michael gallup on a points per game basis this year again he's going as wide receiver 71 the fact that he's questionable for week one and you bring up a great point as people head into their drafts this weekend peop

le are going to see that little red queue next their name and they're like they shy away and so there's going to be a ton of value this weekend for guys like that that aren't that hurt you know again zach hurts is another you know great example of that jay and i talked about him the other day but i think michael gallup especially at wide receiver 71 he's not even being drafted in a lot of yahoo leagues is a massive value this year it's crazy and he's somebody that will consistently get good red

zone work in this offense i mean cd lam of course but the door is wide open for an uptick in targets i just man when you look at it that is stealing he's a he's a big guy that can go up and win those 50 50 balls that you know like he's he's a nice red zone target all right let's talk about another one from the sleepers another wide receiver josh palmer yes an interesting player because we have such a sample size of keenan allen and mike williams in this offense that you know what they're going t

o do week in and week out we know what austin eckler is the third guy kind of gets forgotten about why is josh palmer's sleeper to you well it's two reasons number one is keenan allen or mike williams when they did not play last year he averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game both allen and williams have dealt with injuries throughout their career um allen on the wrong side of 30 at this moment at least six targets in a touchdown in all those games last year there were two games in which allen or

williams did not play 35 percent of his routes last year came out of the slot so i think they can take advantage of palmer they really like him he's had a strong preseason and we think as we as you sort of talk to people around the league in terms of what's an offense that takes the next step this year chargers is one of the first names out of everyone's mouth we all expect big things out of justin herbert and year three we all expect big things out of this offense and uh you know this season so

my expectation is that palmer's a uh a deeper league guy that will get uh that will have some nice value that will carve out standalone value but certainly if anything happens to allen or williams he's a lock it in starter yeah mike williams basically on the injury report is questionable the entire season last year found a way to play on sundays but as you get older that starts to get impacted maybe josh palmer gets some work as he's going he's going 183rd overall on yahoo i'm at 127. again i s

till i'm late like don't get crazy like when cannon island and mike williams played last year he got a six percent target share but again they had other guys there i think josh palmer has had such a good preseason he keeps improving that he is clearly the number three and i think this offense is going to be good enough that potentially in deeper leagues three wide receivers can be fantasy relevant and we know what justin herbert could do throwing the ball down the field palmer's the vertical guy

even more so than keenan now and mike williams wins the jump balls but palmer has a little bit more juice to win down the field especially if he gets more of those targets out of the slot another one looking at the backfield though michael carter on the jets it's been the summer of talking about breese hall to the point where you and i have talked about before bruce hall is probably being overdrafted definitely now it's leading to michael carter almost being forgotten about even though the jets

are telling you throughout the preseason this is probably a 50 50 split in total in the workload yeah i mean i think this is more about roster construction it's not that i think michael carter has this amazing year i do i do think he's part of a committee on a team that we don't expect to be winning a lot of games this year however this is somebody who last year was pretty solid right this guy was a top 32 running back on a points per game basis last year we expect the jets to be better this ye

ar not a lot better but we expect him to be better this year he had 45 percent of the total rushes for the jet so he's not just a pass catching back they don't mind using them between the tackles they they like using them in a lot of different ways i'm at 99th overall yahoo hazmat 121 he actually had more snaps with the starters than bruce hall in this preseason just because of based on where they're going again on yahoo he's going it he's going running back 44 121 overall i just think compared

to where breese hall is going as a top 20 running back on yahoo carter's the much better value i think uh in terms of roster construction and he does have some passing down work yeah and tevin coleman kind of a surprise cut so now you don't have the worry of a third running back eating into those two guys you'll see some ty johnson but this is gonna be bruce hall and michael carter yeah without a doubt another guy in a crowded ish backfield but feels like he has a defined role kenneth gainwell y

eah you know what i mean that's the thing is i think that miles sanders and boston scott are going to be more competing more than people probably realize for for some of those early down rolls but you know when when you hear um uh and this is john mcmullen reporting this uh quote that kenneth gainwell is quote penciled in for high leverage situations like third downs hurry up offense and goal line work that's from somebody who covers the team every day so the expectation here is that i think his

value has nothing to do with miles sanders or boston scott like he has a defined role in this offense and miles sanders has had trouble staying healthy he's had trouble holding on to the ball i know they like boston scott here but again it's all about roster construction he's going as running back 57 156 overall on yahoo like he's basically not being drafted he's free in many leagues and so gainwell who i have it running back 44 119 overall like much higher than where he's going on yahoo i thin

k he's pretty interesting especially when you think about how productive this guy has been when he gets the ball last year in terms of fantasy points per touch minimum 100 touches he had the second most fantasy points for touch the second highest average kenneth gainwell did so like when he gets work he's productive and i think he's in line for more work in this rebuilt offense again eagles one of the best offensive lines in football really easy schedule he's a nice pass catcher they can use gai

nwell in a lot of different ways i just think he's interesting going how late he's going i agree and he's that next guy from memphis right that is their running backs but they're really unique players tony pollard another guy from memphis they recruit the same guy and play them the same way they can motion out to the slot you could do those dump screens to them they have a very defined pass catching role but like you said you're one mile sanders injury away from him having a much bigger role and

all the attention those tight ends command in the middle of the field we know the talent they have a wide receiver now that might open up a lot more room for the outlets for the running back passes like gainwell i i've said this every single year and i've made a profit on saying this every single year they do not want miles sanders to be in every down back he's had multiple opportunities with multiple coaching staffs to be the guy and they have never ever gone to him and there's a reason for it

they they don't think he can stay healthy and he has he has ball uh ball security issues so i anyway we like uh we like kenneth gaine well let's move on now to breakouts some guys that we think are gonna break out here and i got an interesting call you like my name i i think it's interesting darnell mooney darnold the first one up coming off of good 2021 and what was a bad offense over a thousand yards four touchdowns that that's the number that you're probably looking at that's going to jump u

p right yeah i mean look but here's a guy who last year was the 23rd best wide receiver in fantasy in terms of total and to your point everything that possibly could have gone wrong for the bears last year did andy dalton in and out you know they had justin fields he looked unprepared i think and i don't blame that necessarily on fields i think the coaching staff seemed to overwhelmed bad offensive line it just everything that possibly could have gone wrong for the bears offense last year did go

wrong allen robinson clearly wants out he's they're not getting along right and yet and yet darnold mooney over 80 receptions last year over a thousand yards still under the four touchdowns but yet at the end of it still finished as the 23rd best wide receiver in total points in fantasy football he was top 10 among wide receivers in both target share and total targets he had five or more targets in 16 out of 17 games he had the fourth most deep targets in the nfl that i love and from the just f

rom the eye test conor this is something the kid can play yes he gets open down the field he can play and so alan robinson no longer there new offensive coordinator new coaching staff new regime we expect better a better year out of justin fields nowhere to go but up right and the thing we had jason garrett on the on the on the show yesterday and coach garrett who went to bear's camp and so he just said look here's the thing about justin field he can make every throw yeah and they're and they're

they want to get vertical and they're going to have to because of his speed i think with mooney they're going to have offensive line issues in chicago and i think he's not just going to be a deep threat this year i think they're going to have to manufacture touches for moonee they're going to have to do those they're going to do sweeps and quick slants to try to get him in space and take advantage of that speed in yards after the catch because because that offensive line is just you're not gonn

a be good this year and fields is gonna be under pressure you gotta get them involved you can't have deep threats that get lulled to sleep the first half of the game and it kind of takes them out of the game and then here's the other thing matthew outside of cole comet who i know you are high on comparison where he's being drafted in yahoo leagues i mean who else exactly it's mooney right i mean pringle like ellis jones like i mean i like byron pringle actually but they are right but like mooney

is the number one wide receiver on a team that is gonna have to throw and so just massive target chair there uh i do not understand why aj dillon and i've been banging the drum here all preseason he's finally up to running back 24 on yahoo but for a while he was going much deeper than that i am as a top 20 running back i am higher in both in the positional and the overall ranks all in on aj dillon first off aaron jones sometimes will miss a couple of games when he misses games aj dillon is top

five running back in fantasy 21.2 fantasy points per game last year for dylan when he was the number one running back for green bay he had eight different games last year with 15 or more touches averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game in those games and that's important because again with no age with no devante adams they're going to lean on this run game even more if you think about how the packers are constructed this year they've got a really good defense they've got a really good defense they'

re playing at lambeau they've got an inexperienced pass attack and so i think the running back it's going to be a more balanced attack this year they're going both running backs are going to get theirs um obviously dylan led the team last year in red zone and gold to go carries we expect that to continue this year they're going to be in scoring position often obviously but the other thing about dylan is that this wasn't part of his college game this is probably not something you scouted but he c

aught the ball last year yes 34 out of 37 receptions and you're not like that's not a huge number but that it matters it matters he proved aaron rodgers hey get me the ball in space and i can actually catch this not something they asked him to do at boston college never literally never asked him so to see that in the green bay offense is huge and i love this one first up i want to say when i saw this this is the one that i absolutely love because you see the running backs being drafted ahead of

him that are also in you know have interesting work shares i don't understand it and i don't want to give away any of the busts yet but this one to me this offense can support two running backs because of how different they are we know aaron jones is going to catch the ball we know they're going to get a lot of carries but the point that you made about aj dillon just being a monster in the red zone commanding so much of those carries is what takes him over the top being significantly undervalued

not being top 20 on yahoo is insane to me he was running back 23 in total points last year he was running about 23. and that was last year when you know that they had devante adams and they weren't and you know they were just working him in i mean matt lafleur literally said uh aaron jones and uh aj dillon are 1a and 1a it is going to be a true split and i do believe that offense uh will be able to support two fantasy relevant uh uh two fantasy relevant running backs one team that usually doesn

't support any fantasy relevant run relevant running backs is the new england patriots because they they're so committee heavy but i'm in on one guy and it's not damian harris it is not damian harris andre stevenson it is from andre stevenson i am hashtag team romandre ramandre over damien harris yahoo has that reversed they have stevenson going as running back 32 90 first overall stephenson i have 20 running back 27 72nd overall so higher the positional ranks higher and significantly higher in

the overall ranks uh i think there is um i think stevenson has a real shot to be something special this year and i also think he is he should be one of the top zero rb targets if you if you issue running backs by the way first reference first use of the word of shoe on the happy hour a little bit too big of a word here for the for the bar but the fact is is that if you blow off running backs at the top of the uh at the top of your draft stephen should be an early target had five different games

last year with 12 or more touches 18.5 fantasy points per game had at least 75 yards from scrimmage and all of them fit them on qualified running backs and yards after yards per rush after first contact two games with 35 or more receiving yards and that's the key here he's of all the running backs that are on the patriots right now he's the only one that has three down ability harris is great harris is great between the tackles he's not going to be really involved in the passing game right james

white is retired and so we'll see about ty montgomery but ultimately i believe stevenson gets all the almost all the third down work and i think he splits the early down work with harris that's a team that wants to be run heavy this year and i'll throw this in they are shifting to his own scheme they've been predominantly a man power kind of scheme his skill set fits that not damien harris i look at his skill set and go yes all of the workload in terms of being the receiving back is wide open b

ut he's actually the better early down runner i think for what they're trying to do on offense i know it's been a little ugly over summer a lot of people are starting to you know panic over there but this is going to be a run first football team and i think he's ready to be finally for new england finally be the guy he's their new legarrette blunt in a sense with a higher workload yeah i mean i but i mean i think he's gonna he's gonna get but legarrette blount never caught passes i mean stevenso

n's gonna be a a pass catcher as well again under 150 touches for stevenson last year in a productive rookie year i think there's a chance he doubles that number uh to um i i think there's a chance he doubles that number this year i'm all in on team romandre uh i had i had a source tell me that they think they're going to use him like camara which would be like you know when i was like oh so we'll see i mean like again like who knows you know and um but uh i thought that was interesting i though

t that was really really interesting all right now we have to get to sad face yeah bus friday vibes friday vibes um i wish we ran out of time with coach garrett yesterday but i wish we could have asked him about amari cooper and see if he agreed with me on this i want no part of amari cooper this year no part uh you know i have him i'm lower on him than uh in the positional ranks on yahoo i'm lower on him in the consensus ranks and even when it's gotten to a point where i should take him i don't

want to i was in a 14-team league yesterday and i i went uh it was a superflex league so i went quarterback heavy and then i went kyle pitts in the third and then running backs and so i was looking for wide receivers i was sifting through the sand trying to find some wide receivers and amari cooper just kept every run i'm just like here's my concern on mari cooper right and there's a lot so last year under 20 target chair career low under 58 receiving yards per game career low low since 2017 i

should i should say didn't get a thousand yards since 2017. if you look at his splits um his splits in cold weather not great now he's going to cleveland cleveland obviously it's an outdoor stadium it's cold and it's windy like think about how many games we've seen over the last couple years where there's like this game in december in cleveland blowing around here it's like they can't throw it all and that was with like baker mayfield and now they've got jacoby bracette and everyone that feel fr

ee to back if i'm actually a baker fan i think he's better than he gets credit for i think he was in a tough situation in cleveland i'm looking forward to see what happens with him in carolina but whatever you think of of baker mayfield i don't think there's a lot of debate that he's better than jacoby brissette and so like you're getting you're not getting deshawn watson there until week 13 and we don't know what we're going to see out of watson who's been basically out of football for two year

s at that point we'll have been out of football for more or less two years and looked rusty when we did get to see him that's being kind being kind and so i don't know amari cooper like i just i think it's a low volume offense that's going to want to try to grind it out and win with a run game he'll get his right he's a talented player right you know he's going to be the number one option and they got to throw to someone i get all that but i just you know he's going at wide receiver 31 you get t

o see some of the guys that are going around them i just one of those heebie-jeebi guys that just gives me ah someone else can have him for this year i'm with you you always have to worry about being injured being focused and then now the jacobi brissette factor that completely flips the offense upside down for him so for cooper uh it's hard to be really excited about the prospects of taking him as a top 30 wide receiver this year i feel like some of the targets too in that offense because of ja

coby flipped to david and joku it's gonna be a tight end uh middle of the field passing attack very run heavy that's not exciting for fantasy if you're looking for wide receivers especially because cooper has has made his living on those big plays yeah you know and so you know maybe next year full year watson you know you could get into it but um anyway uh he is a bust for me another bus for me honestly and this is more about draft position and roster construction than it is necessarily about th

e player but i will say there's not much on tape after cam acres came back that makes you feel good about the player as well well he tried to you know listen it's a it's a medical miracle that he came back at all last year it's insane like let's just ask an answer like he is he it was a medical miracle like all due respect to you know amazing story for cam akers to even play in the playoffs last year after coming back after you know uh tearing his achilles like that's ridiculous right that's the

glass half full that we saw cam rushed back from an achilles now he's had time but we want to talk the half empty yeah sure so what fascinates me is when they rested kyren williams the final pre-season game rested kyrie iron women day three pick who was the best pass protecting running back in the draft last year right fell till day three sean mcvay seems very high on him there's also two guys in front of him so this to me could be less cam makers could look great this year yeah but what is tha

t workload look like and now if he's not the guy on third downs you're basing it all on early down's work where he's still splitting those carries not even factoring that we don't know if he's the same guy anymore that that's correct that so my concern is my concern is first off yes is it a three-headed monster because daryl henderson was good last year first eight weeks of the season last year daryl henderson's top 12 running back in fantasy i mean like he was daryl henderson's really good and

at least last year they didn't use the running backs in a passing game that much no team in the nfl was worse in terms of running back target share last year than the los angeles rams because they have matthew stafford it's got this cannon of an arm and they've got cooper cup and now they've got alan robinson and tyler higby's right in the middle of the field and they like van jefferson there as well like they don't need to dump it off to the running back all that much and henderson is a nice pa

ss catcher and as you mentioned kyron williams really good in pass pro so maybe they he's out there and so if a play breaks down stafford's dumping it off to him so first off it might be a three-headed monster um so we're concerned about that and we're concerned about the fact that um uh we don't know if he's the same player again after coming back from the achilles during that playoff run last year he averaged 2.4 yards per carry sometimes people bounce right back young players and sometimes li

ke achilles injuries are like one of those that just sap every and just some running backs never recover from it and so will he have that burst that we saw prior to the ng we don't know that and the fact that he's going and this is the biggest thing for me he's going as running back 17. i would much rather take a late if i want a piece of the rams running game give me daryl henderson you know eight rounds later than cam akers who's going 36th overall yeah i've been running i haven't been 49th ov

erall much and honestly i think i'm probably too high on them i i in terms of value i'd much rather have daryl anderson or even take a uh you know a dart throw on kyron williams then a top 17 pick um among running backs on cam acres he just makes me nervous it's a big investment especially we just talked about aj dylan and he's not even in the stratosphere in terms of where aj dylan over cam acres all day every day and the spots are 20 20 spot difference that's that's what you have to factor in

that's what you have to factor in listen i hope i'm wrong you know we root for cam acres but yeah uh i if i'm wrong it will be you know he won't be on any of my teams uh this year because of what it costs to acquire him he's in that reading running back dead zone that we talked about on the draft day mana festo show earlier in the week where it's just like if you don't get an early running back blow off running back for a couple of rounds that rounds four through six running back dead zone i jus

t you know if etn is there there's one or two guys that you can live with but other than that like i'm just sort of waiting for the aj dylan's the randry stevensons of the world not just grabbing a cam acres just to have a guy or a josh jacobs who's the next guy on my bus list here i'm nervous again this is somebody who last year and throughout his career has been touchdown and volume dependent last year he got the volume last year he also was involved in the passing game but new offensive coord

inator and a new place caller new regime we've already seen the raiders in this offseason like they got rid of a lot of the the early picks of the previous regime what new england regimes do when they go somewhere else they clean it out yeah and so josh jacobs was not a mcdaniels guy he sort of inherited him i thought it was really telling that first preseason game fame game hall of fame game you're not supposed to know most of the people playing in the game correct derek carr didn't play in tha

t game devonta adamson playing that game darren wallow didn't play in that game you know like you know second quarter josh shaper should be right into the offense right up the middle what are we doing what are you doing here yeah and so anyway i just my concern on him is that he doesn't get the passing down work because i think that's going to be amir abdullah i think zamir white definitely has a role in this offense josh mcdaniels if you think about you know what he did in new england like he w

as a running back by committee guys we you know we talked about ramondre right i mean we know never started patriots running back because you never know who it's going to be he comes from that school and i don't i don't think he's had a i don't think he's had a running back get over 130 carries in a season since legarrette blount i could be wrong on that stat correct me if i'm wrong blake but i i think that's correct and just instinctually we know they're running back by committee so here's jaco

b's not getting the passing down work he's splitting with amir abdullah and um samir white on a team that by the way just added devonta adams one of the best red zone wide receivers in the nfl like i don't know if touchdowns are even guaranteed he's currently going as running back 22 on yahoo no thank you it sounds like a waller extension could get done so you're looking at this being in devante adams darren waller hunter renfro offense they're not a good run blocking offensive line to begin wit

h no that's going to take time with this regime to get going so you look at samir two things that scared me matthew right away not picking up the fifth year option it's always going to scare you drafting's merely in the fourth round that's a that's serious investment at running back that's not seventh round flyer udfa that's a similar skill set to josh jacobs clang and bang in between the tackles break tackles grind out yards grind out early downs so i think it's crowded there for him and i thin

k he looks like the odd man out in the eyes of the coaching staff in terms of getting a big workload to your point about the offensive line raiders last year 28th in yards per rush before first contact on running back carries he's not going to do it not going to do it by the way and you don't need to because he got devonte adams and darren waller and hunter renfro and a pretty good quarterback and derek carr hey it's matthew berry from nbc sports and rotaworld.com just want to thank you so much

for watching what you just watched or at least being too lazy to click out of it after the you know autoplay just kept it going so either way thank you so much for just letting it scroll by your screen and now i'd like to ask you respectfully respectfully respectfully okay respectfully please subscribe to the nfl on nbc youtube channel for the latest nfl news fantasy headlines from rotaworld and betting analysis from nbc sports edge