mlb breakout/bounce back players for 2024 (nl edition)

Hold on. I forgot my trusty microphone holder. last night was the Super Bowl, which means it's officially baseball season. Thank God, because I'm losing my mind. And the off season has been so slow that I'm just ready for some baseball. I'm ready for something of substance to kick off the 2024 MLB season. I'm going to be talking to you guys about players that I think are going to break out or have a bounce back year in 2024. It's very simple. I kind of spent a disgustingly long time on Fangraphs

and Baseball Savant to sift through each team and pick a player that I think will have a really good year this year and maybe somebody that's bouncing back from a bad year or two bad years maybe, or somebody that I think is going to break out. I love stats. I love math. I have always been really good at math. And once I realized that stats involve math, I was like, I like baseball stats a lot. So this was very fun for me. And I'm excited to share some of these players with you guys and maybe we

can track their progress as the season goes on. I'm very excited When you calling? Now, before we get into the nitty gritty of some of these players, I think it's important that I talk about a certain stat because I'm going to bring up a certain stat quite a few times, and I want to make sure that if you're just getting into baseball or if you're just getting into stats that you know what these certain stats mean. Because sometimes it can sound like people are speaking a foreign language, I don

't want that. I want everybody to understand what we're talking about here. the stat that I'm going to be bringing up quite a few times is Babip Babip Babip. It stands for batting average of balls in play It's the expected batting average of a ball that is put in play. So this gets rid of strikeouts and home runs We look at it and we can say, okay, over a season's span or more, this batter may have been a bit unlucky or this pitcher may have been extremely lucky A 300 babip is like average ish.

you can use 300 as a benchmark and say, This batter has a 330 BABIP. They had a higher batting average of balls in play. So they got kind of lucky. And if it's lower than 300, wow. They got kind of unlucky. So the lower the number, typically, the more unlucky they were. Now, there are other things that can kind of affect this number, but this is the baseline, okay, for easy sake. Now, the opposite is true for pitchers. If a pitcher has a high babip, then they seem to have been a little unlucky

And if they had a low babip, then they got lucky. if you are going to use it in terms of a statistical point, whenever you're talking about a player, I would recommend looking at it from a season span or more. I wouldn't look at it from like a monthly perspective or a daily perspective more effective and it tells a better story when there's a larger sample size. hopefully that makes sense. tried my best to explain it as best I could. we will be starting with the National League today and we're j

ust going to jump right in. Let's start with the NL East. how do you pick a player from the Braves and say they're going to be better this season because they're just all great. one player that I think will have a bounce back year this year is AJ Minter. looking at his stats, he just kind of unlucky in 2023. AJ Minter's Babip in 2023 was 331, which is a touch higher than his career Babip, which is 320. So to me, comparing this with his baseball savant page and some of his statcast stats, which a

re all really high like this guy is in the top percentile and expected era expected batting average. He's in the 94th percentile for strikeouts. Even with the stats that he had last year, in 2023, had a 31 and a half strikeout rate and a 3.76 era. I just think if he continues how he pitched in 2023, he'll just have a better season in 2024. I think if he improves one of his offspeed pitches like his changeup, then he'll have better success in 2024. had a102 batting average against his changeup in

2023, but a 244 batting average against it in 2023. all of the Statcast stats still say this dude has stuff. I think he's just primed for a bounce back year. I'm sure he knows exactly what he needs to fix and he'll have a good year in 2024. Next up, I have the Marlins. I went with Youri Perez. Now I know it's kind of a cop out. Is it a cop out, though? He had a 3.15 era in 2023, a 28.9% strikeout rate, which is pretty good. for a 20 year old. Yes, that's correct. The kid is 20 years he strikes

out more than ten batters per nine innings. But the main thing for him is going to be location. If he can locate his fastball a little bit better in 2024, I think he will just be a better pitcher. And location kind of just comes with age. His walk wasn't great as well, which also supports the fact that he wasn't locating some of his pitches well enough. I also think that his Fangraphs projections are a little off. I think he'll throw closer to 140 innings in 2024. think 122 is too low, as you ca

n see by this chart here. Uri Perez threw a lot of fastballs up and into right handed hitters if you go to the right to the right guy, that pitches crushed every time, especially a fastball. thing with fastballs is that if you just get your hands to it, probably going to hit it hard. it either needs to have good movement or you need to locate it. Well. his whiff rate is in the 92 percentile at 33.7%. Nasty. This is basically just swings and misses. think you'll have a great year. Mets were a lit

tle tough, but I ended up landing on Shintaro Fuji. NAMI. for future NAMI, it was really just the story of two halves for him. When he was in Oakland and he was a starter, was not good. In 2023 he had a 7.1 AFTRA, In the first half of 2023, in 45 innings pitch. He had a nine era. But in the second half of 20, 23 in 34 innings, pitched, had a 4.76. Right It's a lot better. 2023 was his first year in Major League Baseball. So if you could just continue to do what he did in that second half of the

year, I think that he'll just naturally improve from that 7.18 era. if he can just locate a little bit better, I think he'll be fine, especially in a reliever role. Sometimes you make the transition and it's a tough transition, right? But he fits into reliever role a little bit better is better player development outside of Oakland. So don't see why he doesn't post something closer to like a four year ring. We're talking about the Phillies next. And the national answer for the Phillies is Trey T

urner. What a tale of two halves It was for Trey Turner. His end of year stats really weren't too terrible. I wouldn't say they were Trey Turner esque, but batting 266 with a 320 on base percentage in a 459 slug really isn't that bad. It's actually pretty good. He had a one way WRC plus, but naturally, because we're talking about Trey Turner here, his projections are a lot higher than that, I don't think that we're looking at any sort of regression in terms of hitting because he is approaching.

How old is he? I think he's in his thirties. Fuck, I got to look Trey Turner age. You think I would know this 30? Okay. I was right. So again, I don't think he's regressing because the first half of 2023 was atrocious. had a great World Baseball classic. And then the first half of the 2023 MLB season, he just was not good. He slashed to 47 with A to 99 on base percentage a 389 slugging not great. He's also striking out a lot more often than normal. His strikeout rate was four and a half percent

higher than normal Now in the second half of 2023, he was much more Trey Turner esque. had a 292 batting average, 348 on base percentage and a 554 slugger way better, his K rate dropped to 18.6%. had a 9.1 ops. So to me, I see that as first half was just a weird slump for him. I don't really know. He was on a new team. Maybe he was into him, I don't know. But because his second half was so much better, I don't see why he doesn't get back to his Trey Turner ways. Now the Nationals were a little b

it tough, but I ended up going with Caber Ruiz. How old are you, Cavour? Ruiz I should know these things before I make these videos. 25. The kid is young We're bringing up app again for cable Ruiz Because this kid hits the ball hard. He's in the 93rd percentile and in sweet spot percentage, whiff percentage and K percentage. So the kid is not chasing. He's not striking out and he's hitting the ball hard. And every year of his career, his barrel rate has also increased. So you couple improvements

with a low babip for a batter, I don't see why he doesn't have a better 2024. His numbers are okay in 2023 hit a 93 WRC plus But again, I think that he was just a little bit unlucky. So he's young. It's always a good sign when guys aren't striking out and guys aren't swinging and missing and he's hitting the ball hard. So I just, you know it. Ruiz, I think you're about to pop off my guy. so here in game two is Shohei Miceli. He's a touch Are you real? Let's move along to the NL Central, startin

g with the Cubs. have Shoto empanada Eamon. Olga, you have to understand that his fastball is his bread and butter. He has such a good fastball, has a 149 stuff plus rating. Now. Stuff plus is another weird stat, but all in all, it's basically just how nasty the pitch is, how much movement. The pitch has anything above 100. It's higher than league average. between Japan and Major League Baseball, they use two different baseballs. The baseballs are different in the World Baseball Classic. They us

e a major League Baseball or a baseball that's the same size as the one they use in Major League Baseball. So seeing this stuff plus so high with the Major League Baseball is a really good sign. I think I'll have a great first half. What happens in the second half? I don't know what to tell you. He's playing in Wrigley Field. It's going to be, cold at the beginning of the year. So I think his first half will be a little bit better than his second half. But we will see. I also think he'll have a

great shot to pitch like 140 innings. guys. Remember when guys would pitch like 200 innings in a season and it was like, as you should, brother. And now I'm like 140. Yay! How times have changed for the Reds. My breakout player is Jeimer Candelario I have him as my Reds guy for one reason. Well, few reasons, but the main reason is because he's now playing at Great American Ballpark in the stats on his home runs. He would have hit more home runs at Great American Ballpark than any other field in

Major League Baseball. So I think he's going to pop off a He would have hit 30 home runs last year. A great American ballpark compared to his 22 in 2023. And you see this trend across his flock. But now you see this trend across his entire career. He would have hit 18 home runs in 2020 to a great American ballpark instead of 13, and he would have hit 27 in 2021 compared to 16. So, listen, I think great American ballpark is going to be good to him or candelario this year we also saw him increase

his walks in 2023, which is a great sign. He's being more patient at the plate. He also had the highest iso of his career at 220. ISO is slugging percentage minus batting average. just another fun number that I like to use. Sometimes Long story short, he's going to be playing in a ballpark that's good to him for 81 games out of the year. He's making good adjustments. His statcast numbers are getting better. Each year he's walking more. So I don't see why he doesn't pop off in 2024. For the Brewe

rs, I have Willie Adonis, I think Willie Adams could be like a top ten shortstop in Major League Baseball this year, maybe even like top seven. He was really unlucky last year. Like, really unlucky. According to Babip, of course, had a 259 babip in 2023 compared to a 310 career. That's an insane difference. He had a career high walk rate of 11.1% and a career low strikeout rate of 25.9% in 2023. if he does the same thing that he did last year, he's going to have a better season. He's in the top

20% of the league and barrel rate, so he's hitting the ball hard and he's playing in kind of a crappy division. I'm sorry, I don't have room to talk about things being crappy, but it's true. let's not have an unlucky year. What do you say? What do you say, dude? Now we have the Cardinals. The Cardinals were tough. It was really a toss up between Tommy Edman and Nolan Arenado. For me, went with Tommy Edman. Nadeau, heading into his 33 year old season, kind of freaks me out and that's the reason w

hy I didn't pick him. just I know Edman may have been a touch unlucky. In 2023 he hit a 275 babip compared to a career 301 Babip he's solid against breaking pitches. He hits the ball hard and he's not striking out a lot. So I just think again, if he continues to do what he did last year, be fine. Fangraphs projects him to have higher numbers in 2023 The Pirates was also really tough. I debated picking a few guys. I debated Jack Sowinski. I debated a certain number one overall pitcher Paul Steven

s. But I ended up not going with either of those. I ended up going with O'Neil. Cruz Now I know some of you probably are not going to agree with me, and that's fine. I don't care. Some of you are like, Well, we have Ellie de la Cruz now. Ellie de La Cruz is who O'Neill Cruz wishes he was. Hold on, my friend. I think 2023 is just an injury year that you just have to throw out the window. His stats in 2022 were so good and people forget. People forget. O'Neil Cruz was a dog in 2022. He was in the

91st percentile in 2022. An average exit velocity and in the 96th percentile at barrel rate. He hits the ball so hard and people just forget. I think he'll probably have a slower start to the year just because 2023 was kind of a wash. But I don't see why he doesn't have a great summer then it'll just be good after that once. See, once the weather gets a little bit warmer and you hate your plate appearances and you're like, okay, time to lock in. And I think that's what ONeil Cruz is going to do.

We also haven't seen anything with these new base running roles. why not 30 to 40 stolen bases? Why not? In 2023, he was on pace for more walks and less strikeouts as well. Strikeout rate is a little concerning for him, but it did get better in the small sample size that we have. So listen, I'm a glass half full kind of girly. I think O'Neill Cruz is going to have a good year Let's move on to the NL West the Diamondbacks, I'm going with Brandon Fat. And, you know, I think everybody knows that h

e has the ability to be really good in 2024, I'm pretty confident that he will have a breakout year And it's really strictly based on his postseason numbers. His regular season wasn't fantastic, but he shined in the postseason. He was so good. had a3273, .091 whip a 10.6 K rate through and a 2.0 walks per nine. I love it. do only have one season of Major League Baseball bap to go off of, but his babip was 315, so he may have been a touch unlucky, but there's not much to go off of. So I'm kind of

leaving that alone. He has a great slider and locates it really well. he's tied for 11th in the league in location plus now member I mentioned Steph plus earlier and that's just like how nasty the pitcher's location plus is how well you can locate it And this is tied for 11th out of 141 other pitchers that through at least 90 innings in 2023. Simply put, he's a young player that showed off his stuff in the postseason. Why not you In fact, now? We have the Rockies. There's really just one guy on

the Rockies that I want to see have a bounce back year. I think most of us want to see him have a bounce back year. And that's Chris Bryant. Now, I know what you're thinking, Willie. He's so injury prone. Okay, I get it. But I don't care. He's been riddled with injuries since 2019 and hasn't had a qualified hitting season since 2021. I get it. But I'm extremely confident that even if he can get to like three or 400 plate appearances, he's just going to be better than what he was in 2023. had a

bad 2023. Like other years, he's had injuries, but he didn't have a bad season. Last year was bad. had a 270 babip in 2023, which is just shy of his career. Low and this is compared to a 329 career babip his Babip is so high in his career because he just hits the ball hard, his fly ball rate dropped, which isn't great for power hitters, especially if you're playing a Coors Field. want to get the ball in the air because that baby's just going to fly. If he can bump up his walks a bit and just aga

in, continue to do what he did and he just hopefully won't be as unlucky, I think he'll be better. I'm not saying he's going to have, like, you know, a 900 ops. I'm not saying that. But compared to what he did in 2023, 73 WRC Plus, come on, Fangraphs projects him to have 553 plate appearances. I think that's a little high. I don't think he's I mean, maybe hopefully. But I think he'll just at least be more effective while he's on the field. I'm sure that injuries have probably zapped a little bit

of his raw power. typically what happens But I'm confident that he'll just be more effective if he just does what he's done in the past. for the Dodgers. I went with Alex Fisher. how you pronounce his name. I get so paranoid about that. I have to look it up. I'm so sorry. Alex. But She's trying to see how to pronounce his name. Vesey. I knew I said it wrong I know you're going to hate me because I'm going to bring up pop up again. But his was so bad in 2023 at a 352 babip So unlucky as unlucky

as you can get, was literally the 11th highest amongst all other qualified relief pitchers in Major League Baseball. had a really bad first half as well. The second half of his season was a lot better, So think that kind of inflated his numbers as well. never think it's a bad sign when the first half is bad and the second half is good. Like you figured it out, right? Typically earlier in the season, pitchers kind of have the advantage. Batters are still trying to find their feet again. But if yo

u get better in the second half, I think it's fine. I don't think it's anything to worry about. His fastball has a 123 stuff plus, which is ranked 26th among 162 Qualified relief pitchers. His fastball was his best pitch in 2022, but then became his worst pitch in 2023. So I'm sure he knows that. I'm sure he's working on it. And I just that he's is just going to be better. I'm wondering how many times in this video I meant to say 2024, but I said 2023. I feel like that's going to happen a lot an

d I'm a little nervous about it. Despite of for 35 yeara in 2023, was still in the 72nd percentile in expected era and 79th percentile for with percentage and 88th. And Kerry, all of these things just scream unlucky to me. Next is the Padres. Now this one is kind of more vibe related to me. Okay. This is just a feeling I have in my heart. Fernando Tatis Junior is going to have a way better 2024 and let me tell you why. In 2023, the pressure that was put on the San Diego Padres and for Tatis I ca

n only imagine just because they're professional athletes, just because they're playing at the highest stage, that doesn't mean that these guys still don't feel pressure. Okay? They can they can say they don't, but they're lying. There's no shot. So I think with all of the pressure on them in 2023, the weird locker room vibes in 2023, all of these little things, I think he's just going to have a better attitude going into 2024. he had a poor second half, but he had a really good first half. shit

. Sorry. also didn't walk quite as much as usual in 2023. So listen, I know that I don't have much in the way of stats for you on this one, but I just. I mean, here's the Fangraphs projections. You tell me this is so much more. Fernando Tatis to me. And I think the vibes are going to be way better in 2024. Also, he had to play a whole new position. Do you know what that does? That's a hard transition. I just think there are so many outside factors that may have influenced his attitude He's going

to have a bounce back year. Lastly, for the San Francisco Giants, this one was a little tough, but I ended up going with young Howley. I'm pretty high on Jong Hooli. had a great World Baseball Classic. had the second highest batting average among center fielders in the World Baseball Classic and the third highest ops at 1.071 had the fifth highest batting average amongst all outfielders the 13th highest ops. know it's a small sample size, but it's a good gauge of what could be He's projected to

play a lot of games in 2024. The Giants need a consistent center fielder, so I don't see why he doesn't play 150 games He's also another year out from his ankle surgery, so he might be able to even steal some bats. He's kind of giving like Jeff McNeil vibes a little bit. I think that he'll hit for a high batting average if he can pop like 15 home runs. Good for you. And that's it. That's all I have for the National League. Thank you, guys, so, so much for watching. Let me know if you agree or d

isagree with my picks. Let me know who you would have picked instead. will talk about the Al very soon. I love you guys. Thank you for being here. And don't forget to not let sports affect your mental health. Have a great rest of your day and I'll see you soon.