[Music] welcome to the acclaimed podcast the Deep dive featuring your esteemed hosts Andy Monitor and Drew dzik powered by bet spurts welcome to the Deep dive Andy we got six 16 games on the Slate this week we got uh an injury list a country mile long I got to go ahead and I cleared my next CBS receipts man yeah I cleared my next three hours Let's really get into this uh let's make it happen um again I I will say though I'm not in a great mood um as enjoyable as week 14 was loved the love the bo
ard love the results um I am not cracking the code of week 15 which is frustrating me so and you know and I know I know you're in a good position in like the contest and you have so you have to bet stuff but just in general I think I kind of ran into the same thing and I said you know contest aside if you're just betting week to week it's not a bad week to just say like there's not a lot I love you know take a deep breath take take a take a very small part of a stake and do a moneyline parlay wi
th it you know if if you really need some action take a quarter unit and parlay some money lines together that you like do some extra teasers dig into some props find something else watch some fing bowl games man so it is yeah it's been a tough week for me to find bets right off the bat as well um that said I did get a I just checked my email I thought I was gonna have to go to a parent teacher conference tomorrow turns out it's a zoom call oh my God an upgrade just a massive not having to to dr
ive to the school and sit into a because you have to sit in these chairs that are like for children at these things I ask this what is this a chair for an yes exactly so uh no let's uh um unless you have any takes on the the annoying I mean should we just run through all the Twitter arguments like the the the people who are arguing about the Chop on the Circa circus Survivor that lacks so much context what if the guy he might have the best entry if the best entry [ __ ] off way what if he has li
ke I have the ners I have the cowboy like what if he three team and he realizes what the other people you just don't know that lacks a lot of context although it would be just funny if he was just spiteful and just that would be great although it is it's surviv did you know did you know skating tripods Adam Burke is one of the final I hope it's I hope he I hope he wins I if was I know I'm cheering I'm cheering for the no uh the hip drop tackle thing that we could go into many many many I I shoul
d just read I should just read my Tweet or my my message I just wrote hey tackling is dangerous you know it's so hard because these guys are I mean have you seen nextg stats which is a whole different di I gotta get into that but like these guys are running 20 miles an hour and they're the hugest most muscular athletic human beings on the planet and you have to try to stop him from doing that and I mean some of these guys are clearly like it's it is a technique it's a technique that's been taugh
t though too yeah but sometimes it just like guy's falling down or it's hard tackling a person from behind is difficult tackling is difficult tackle football is just dangerous correct such as life we need to figure that out and then also I thought about nextg stats a little bit maybe I've brought this up before I remember when that was new because I thought it was going to be something along the lines of hey baseball has saber metrics maybe we're getting something fun and really really deep and
it's going to really tell us a lot about the game and then it just turned out to be like this is the guy that ran the fastest this week this guy did you know this guy ran 7 like on on a scramble he ran 73 yards in this play you'll never guess who the fastest was so far this year Andy it was DK meaf running a straight line against the Cowboys on his first touchdown I think anyway I Al I just I've been disappointed and yes we love Adam Adam was one of the first sports betting podcasts I ever liste
ned to when I figured out what podcasts were I had a job that I was alone uh either in a vehicle or out you know usually just meeting with customers a lot where I had a lot of downtime and bang the book was it bang the book I remember he was reading like bet DSi ads this is this is forever go yeah he invited he invited me on his podcast a couple of times in the season that the Eagles beat the Patriots and uh no one had ever invited me on podcasts or any media at all to that point like I had done
a couple of spr tennis like videos but that was it that's a good that's a good so I was like it was like my foray into just like guest you know guest picks guy and uh I'll never forget I was very sure the Patriots were going to beat the Eagles in that Super Bowl like super sure and and uh after they lost one of my first thoughts was like oh God damn it Adam's never going to have me back that's the end of that no wrong I was so wrong uh but uh yeah I I had the over also so I guess I'm trying to
think what the first podcast that wasn't ours and that was invited on I don't know it's been so long I couldn't it was probably something spr you know that that was big back then sure I have no idea man that's been a long time long time ago but yeah let's uh let's go Adam go Adam I still have a bet DSi account about once a year I'll check it when it's just like oh should should I check every nook and cranny you you know when I do open bet DSi uh for draft because you just never know every once i
n a while every once in a while somebody will have a funny number or a silly limit on something that is limited everywhere else honestly it was whatever five dimes came in America bet any sport one time and their limits kind of suck and everything else one time during the draft they had like they had like a $250 limit on something that was just you know very minimal or non-existent elsewhere at a big plus number it's like I'm like they're gonna just kick this back aren't they and they I think th
ey let like I think they let you reat something really weird so I don't know when you have you know a unique event like that it is worth opening all all 22 tabs and digging through [ __ ] everything I guess awesome awesome well uh the Deep dive karma is with you uh a and uh yeah we we want you to ship at him let's talk about uh I don't want to get into the the MVP debate it's pointless um yeah I'm I'm almost sick of awards I'm kind of there know there's and here here's here's my one sentence tak
e on Awards sure you know besides obviously the Rookie of the Year awards that are over this point sure uh there are so many high leverage games yeah between the four MVP candidates the five or six Coach of the Year candidates and honestly a lot still to shake out in defensive player of the year that it just it's really hard to you take good positions and go from there man yeah really and and yeah the uh uh let's do 20 minutes on tomorrow though quick well that's the thing so many of the you kno
w so much of the the air uh you know that's getting sucked out of the room on award stocks is people whose like opinion is this is who I think should win and has is totally divorced from the well this is how the award is actually doled out yeah right so it's like useless from a betting standpoint and then the other half of it is all this is who I bet and so I'm just gonna pump this guy's tires it's like engaged in plenty of that so I can't be too critical of it but now but this year it feels lik
e just an absolute yes and uh basically you can tell who people bet yeah yeah I have no life-changing money for me whatsoever in the MVP Market but I feel like this is very much the uh you know the uh uh left curve right curve meme where it's like best team best player Brock py MVP best team best player Brock py MVP and then the entire middle is but the Dak means more to his offense than birie and bir's got his best weapons Tyreek people people out there people out there spitballing CMC like wha
t planet are you on like get out of here like because you won your fantasy league for you congratulations you're in the fantasy playoffs thanks to Christian mcaffry he's not the MVP I don't know what to tell you honestly real quick back to the hip drop thing yeah I think the you know the Confluence icept the right word but just like the rise of best ball which is be bestall is just fantasy football with much higher Stakes yes because I I think it's just harder for you know hey I'm a fantasy foot
ball player what are my options to you know just like when you when you bet what are my options to scale this up I'm good at this now I should scale I want to make more money obviously there's difficulties but what what's your options to scale in fantasy you either join more leagues or you join higher dollar leagues joining higher dollar leagues invites more variants and you're probably gonna go against tougher tougher players Sharky Waters yeah you don't you don't want to maybe you don't want t
o get into those Waters so like where do you go and I know there's there's plenty of Sharky Waters in in bball but bball offers you an opportunity to start in like March and really build up I mean you could build up easily $100,000 worth of you know best ball exposure there's so many sites that do it now if you really wanted to get deep into the bank roll and like so when offensive players get hurt it's just everybody's pitching a fit now and I don't like it either I don't like seeing people get
hurt but it it seems like you know and and obviously the the SGP crowd the player prop crowd like people get so mad when a player gets hurt because it just ruined uh it ruined the pets for the day yeah I had yeah I mean the the state of offense in the NFL is insane we uh we started the season with an average total of 44 we're at 41.5 so yeah with that let's get into the East yeah let's start with yeah hey let's start with th football we made a joke last week that the you know was the absolute l
ike ideal test scenario for weighing the NBA inseason tournament against th football because it was like put it on Amazon nobody can find it you got trabis versus zappy this is gonna be your worst quarterback match up all year ah oops no it's not this is much worse Prime Time quarterback matchup of East stick versus AOC uh we have confirmation relatively I guess a high likelihood that this is aoc's last chance I guess um the um the uh the injuries to the Raiders offensive line matter no Center a
nd Andre James is out Colton Miller's out so those are your two best offensive linemen so presumably AOC is drawn a little bit dead here although the Chargers is not like the scariest pass rusher in the world missing helps but they still have mac and you still have some pieces yeah uh and AOC probably not great we should give Flores and what he's done with that defense uh some flowers but yeah that was still a very very bad showing at home yeah yeah Viking holding them the dead cat bounce is off
icially that cat is just dead now it's just laying there dead I don't know Andy uh since they hire they brought since they fired uh McDaniels and brought in um uh Pierce uh this is a top 10 defense no I'm just saying like that offense that offense is that offense has Devonte Adams and maybe just Jacobs and this is what we're getting out of them at times I agree with that and and by the way Devonte Adam is questionable like he may be kind of checked out on the season I wondered about that with Ke
enan Allen too he's like hey I've gotten tackled at like 2x the rate I have for most of the season because they're only targeting me yeah the season's over the quarterback's gone I'm hurt I'm old I wonder if he's just like I can't do it this week I'm done honestly for Adams too it's not like the Raiders have a a really really good path to the playoffs at this point they do not no not at all um I think the Chargers are probably the BET East and stick Cas an arm at least uh you got Palmer back now
uh Quinton Johnson might run a couple of you know couple of goes maybe they hit hit Quinton Johnson on a go maybe they get a couple pass interferences and that gets some the field goals they need to win I don't really know I just know that these are two defenses that are a little bit better than the market thinks if you go back uh let me let me give you the exact numbers here uh on EPA and ranking here for uh since the Lions loss which was week eight Monday night uh that uh begat the McDaniels
firing um the Raiders have played some meaningfully tough off like quarterbacks they played Pat Mahomes they played the the mighty Dolphins uh yes the other games were against Tommy DeVito Zack Wilson and uh do Mullen I want to say like they gave up they gave up some points to the Raiders the Dolphins yeah the Dolphins kind of shot themselves in the foot so I'm not saying wrong play I'm pushing back on you want to guess what what's what's the EPA for play rank of the Raiders since they fired McD
aniels oh like n I'm not I'm not taking I'm not not no no teasing now TI overs no dinking with the ninth ninth fourth okay how crazy is that it was deito and negative game script it was it was the bad Jets team on the road and really if you go look at that Raiders game that did feel like a twoa shoots himself in the foot game the Dolphins dozen points yeah that said even if you take all that and let's say let's contextualize it I still can't say like well it's a bad defense say like at minimum u
sing all that at minimum it's still I'd say above I'd say somewhere like the 12 to 15 kind of range yeah they have improved Crosby is legit they have some pieces they've covered at times decent and obviously they they're able to stamy shitty teams I mean you have to do at least that so um I'm not I'm not sure I'm super in love with uh even getting getting in bed with either team at this point I mean this total this total actually got B up a little bit at this point with you know with with Herber
and Allen out it leaves a lot to be desired for a team that really really hasn't been able to run you're not going to be able to you know rely lean on that with the backup quarterback Adams is an illness so if he does want to sit he can just say I'm too sick to play Max Crosby goes he's always questionable he's going yeah I don't think that I don't think there's a question there he's a he's a baller uh Josh Jacobs hasn't practiced yet this week that's not great either no so neither team I don't
think Raiders could get shed out again and honestly the comment from Antonio Pierce which is that the offense will it's it's about to pop like that was a good laugh I got out of that one because it's not about to pop not with the injuries that they have right now no give me a percentage chance that you see Brian Hoyer play at some point during this game uh 60 it feels like it feels like they're on the other side of the Vikings game where it's like yes they get they get the Dos game out of AOC a
nd like we gota go to Hoyer Hoyer one nice drive but if they're shut they're shut out they're shut out at halftime that's Brian hoyer's music he's still a 38-year-old axel Brian Edward Hoyer whatever it is Axel Brian Edwards Hoyer yes um all right well Chargers defense a little bit underrated too they've been top seven since they played the Lions which is kind of wild um I don't I didn't know they were any good but yeah that's also a very skewed sample because there's a uh there's a Patriots shu
t out in there um so weird anyway let's keep moving I think if you want to play this game if you're picking if you're in a pool uh I would go take the points with the Chargers and if you made me make a bet on this one I'd probably take Raiders team total under I think I think Easton stick is high variance player he does there was I've watched that long ball a couple times it was a well thrown ball it just I don't know if we'll get that against the secondary I trust them a little more I think the
y have a good pass stretch at time so we'll see it might be a high variance game where you know he hits a couple deep balls they win this like 17 to three yeah all the important players on offense for both teams are not playing that's all I can tell you which means 34 and a half is probably too high Minnesota Cincinnati first game on oh boy does it yes instead in Prime Time wonder and interesting thing you know just a little thing and it it sounds so simplistic but it's something I didn't think
of right off the bat when I was tracking something earlier in this week uh unusual for injured players like this is basically these four teams or these six teams are playing they played a Monday game you know they have the same amount of time to get healthy as a a team coming off a Monday Night Football they have one fewer practice so players like Madison Jefferson and Jefferson has said he's good to go the hospital visit was just a hey with this kind of injury we got to check if for internal bl
eeding or broken ribs sound like he's good to go but I don't know that Madison is able to get back off this short of a this short of a turnaround and now Jamar Chase is uh on the injury report he said he's going to play too though he he did too but like the fact that they had to throw him on there with an ankle I'll tell you if he's Limited at all yeah I'll the um I uh I rewatched uh Bengals Colts again today because I needed to understand if the Bengals defense was actually good in the second h
alf of that game or if it was fluky um Colts just couldn't run is that you well the Colts the Colts couldn't run they muffed to punt M you had a gross Mo M you had a gross pick and there was a really bad holding penalty that took seven points off the board um otherwise the Bengals defense was terrific uh they were just good in high leverage stuff like there was a lot of third and long stuff because because it couldn't run there was a lot of third and long stuff and in the third and long stuff th
e a lot a lot of a lot of really dead like I I mentioned this on Sunday a lot of dead first downs where it's like hey Zach Moss Right Guard zero yards yeah you're just throwing away first down Browning Browning with the injury you know I I said this Sunday it said it he said it was cramps he needed an IV fluid but now he's showing up with the right forearm injury so maybe it was more than did did he lie to us do you think he lied to us or do you think they're putting him on there from a cautiona
ry standpoint so they don't get dinged for another quarterback not being on the injury report and getting hurt weirdly like do you know what I mean like did they was he actually limited because people I practiced didn't say anything about it and how loud the uh how loud the news was through when Joe burrow wore that pen yeah drawing anime on his tablet but the almost no coverage for when the NFL came out and said yeah we checked they they're fine they didn't do anything wrong like that that came
out like last week and the asymmetry of conspiracy theory is pretty real just yeah just a little blurb on that so um all right let me ask you one more opinion injury-wise because the injuries kind of make this handicap one way or the other uh cluster injury for the Minnesota offensive line obviously darasa their most important player looks fine o might be their most important player you think O'Neal is more important okay well he's very good I mean it's they're both time yeah o O'Neal is a prob
ably a big problem I think like you said Jefferson Jefferson likely goes he says he's gonna be fine Madison hasn't practiced Ed Ingram was back to full practice but yeah Brian O'Neal matters yeah um DJ Turner was limited for the Bengals as well yeah I mean both it's that kind of time of year I got the I got I got the sense that all of the Bengal stuff was was kind of precautionary except Browning which I don't know I have no idea if Browning's actually hurt but the chase one Chase got hurt in th
e when it was z z he played the rest of the game and he was fine U so I don't think he's gonna be limited um I do believe if Browning is fine and now like my entire idea of who he is and how to handicap him for the rest of the season is thrown up in the air with this forearm thing um but if it's [ __ ] and if he's fine he looks amazing like he's doing exactly what you need to do to succeed in this offense with those weapons and honestly Zack Taylor is coaching his damn ass off right now Taylor a
nd Callahan whoever you want to give the credit to they are sequencing [ __ ] brilliantly they are they are pressing the uh aggressive button aggressively I [ __ ] love it it's it's the same thing we have we have two of these in the same division where we bring in a backup or in the case of another team a 38-year-old off the couch just like you know what go green green button green button and it's funny too we say this sort of thing when a when a like a 14-point underdog has a decision to make l
ate in the game like hey you're a terrible team you were had no business being in this game you should be aggressive because you're not why would you play for overtime as a massive Underdog it's the same thing with these teams where I'm not saying the Bengals and Browns are bad teams but when you get put in a spot where like oh man we're on the backup quarterback like why would you be more conservative why would you know I I know they had to do a little bit a little bit of that but I love how th
ey pivoted because the Browns did that and that that's actually how they beat the the Steelers but I like how both of these teams have pivoted to like we're gonna be aggressive at this guy like I love it too why not it's it's an it's an NFL lose it's the right call you're going baby him and lose by a smaller margin instead of like really it'd be one thing if you had no weapons but the fact that you have three good wide receivers you have a now they have a second running back they're using who's
better than Mixon like offensive line playing better finally um yeah this team is this team is live for a playoff spot which is crazy I thought the defense for the Bengals did look better against the Colts by the way I wanted to ask you about the move here though was the early move just people saying I know Jefferson's going to go this number's going to move I'm going to grab the four of grab three and a half or I mean is there a good angle to be looked at at you know Minnesota just over a field
goal on the road because it's Mullins who's not started a game for a while and while I did I do have it as an upgrade just based on you know I wrote this to it's like I don't think that like Mullins is good but I've had to downgrade dobs so much that just the Baseline that Mullins bring is an upgrade okay so it's a slight upgrade here but still we we saw a couple drives we haven't seen much of him a lot of it was you know in San Francisco I think we saw him a little bit in Jacksonville Mullen h
as bizarrely efficient SE like career statistics in terms of efficiency like like his EPA stuff it's like what like where is oh he's up there with Brock py what the yeah a lot of it a lot of it just lack of turnovers too which is good so his completion percentage OV expectations since he had elbow surgery is best of any player in the NFL in with the with like a 100 snaps or whatever um so I don't know maybe maybe Mullen is good if Mullen is good and he's back and he's effective then yeah sure th
ey're alive my my my guess to answer your question the original move off from four to three and a half and then from three and a half pushing into three was the Mullins upgrade the Jefferson availability and people trying to sell on Bengals because the because the look ah had last week was like pick them right and so people like wait it was pick them and now you're giving me the hook of course I'll take it right uh I I bet three and a half I feel like a [ __ ] idiot uh I not just because of the
Browning stuff that I missed but um you know the price is a joke compared to what I bet like this is one of those oh you likeed it at three and a half you're GNA love it at three minus 103 you know what I kind of like here is a bit of a not not just contrarian to be contrarian but I truly do not believe the Bengals have a good defense okay and I I wonder like like I mentioned we we might have some injuries there the Minnesota offensive line injuries really kind of throw a wrench in this plus the
road the road uh the noise in in ciny is real did you see the uh quote from Taylor no honestly I'd cancel him he probably needs a cancelling his exact quote was have one more beer before you go in or something like basically like he he he was encouraging the home crowd to be loud to be Rowdy basically it said have one more drink at the tailgate kind of stuff it's like I don't know if you're allowed to say that anymore some guys going to get a DUI and blame you Z but I'll tell you we see we'll s
ee but no you're right it's a tough road environment but I'm actually tempted to make a case for this over okay I love but I'm I'm willing to sell high on both these defenses like what Flor has done has been great they still don't have The Playmakers they are distinctly lacking Playmakers you can only get Buy on scheme for so long and what I've seen from the spal offense I like and at the same time I think Mullen just not turning the ball over having a decent you know C you have some decent rece
ivers here even outside of Jefferson if you don't have Madison so be it it hasn't been a good running Team all year I think uh Minnesota in a negative game state with a better quarterback scores points kind of kind of attempted to bet an over 40 it's a nice I'm thinking the I'm thinking the weather was supposed to look okay at payor I don't think this is going to be as bad of a weather week yeah okay I don't don't no no disagreement there um weirdly the bad weather game is Miami who [ __ ] would
have guessed that which do do you remember that so I've heard chernoff brought that up today and I was trying I was it's actually when I drove home to grab something and I was like yelling at I I yell at my radio when they host says something like isn't that the that's the stadium that I mean Hard Rock doesn't really get wind in it though no they don't it can be 25 miles an hour but it could just scoots right over the top yeah it's very so yeah I I think you start looking at those weather repor
ts if you start looking at those weather reports and like oh it's gonna be really really really windy in Miami it matters much less there due to the the architecture and design of that stadium so take take those weather reports a little grain of salt love you I dig it um yeah dgma all right so I I I still I don't I'm G to stop anyone for betting the over I get the points um I like Bengals still if assuming Browning is not actually hurt I like Browning uh as just a buy um everything I've heard an
d read about him uh is just screaming this guy's like he gets it as like how to improve his game week in week out um also the Vikings being somewhat predictable in terms of Blitz rate I think matters like if you know what's coming and if you if you prepared for it if you prepare a guy specifically for it if you give him the tools to beat the blitz you can beat it he's got the you got the weapons you're working with to beat it um the weird thing also about Browning he's been he was the number two
quarterback of every quarterback last week in terms of production which is amazing right like his total EPA was number two after Lamar um that his best game up so far was the one against the Jags um in both games his receivers had key drops key drops Jamar Chase and T Higgins keep dropping the football it's it's wild the emergence of Chase Brown I think is real um the offensive line playing better is real and the Vikings offensive line being being impacted by the crowd noise and the pass rush w
ith the Bengals I think is possible um yeah so I still think the Bengals are the right side but uh I wouldn't actually probably stay away until we know for sure that Browning is not actually hurt I would like really really like to see a positive report about what a great day he has spinning the ball in practice tomorrow moving on actually yeah speaking of the Jack I just I struggle to see Minnesota getting a lot of pass rush here if they if they do want to drop they keep you know keep dropping g
uys they're GNA what is the other running back's name Brown why can't I think Chase Brown Chase Brown Jamar Chase and a Chase Brown they may murder them with just the short stuff he's he's a Twitchy thing for sure when he gets the ball in his end Fair um second this year by nextg stats after DK that's the thing too you can see these guys who who are very fast once they get going there's a difference between fast and the guy who catches the ball Jukes a little is basically standing still in regar
ds to that axis and starts and is suddenly going so fast again he seemed to have that like that acceleration that you need for those sort of plays like I think he might murder him underneath as well okay well uh one last final point in this uh to the Zack Taylor have a couple more Pops in the parking lot comment uh I mean it's it's impossible to think that a game week 15 involving the Vikings on Saturday would have anything weird happen right do you remember that was like wasn't that like the on
ly year anniversary yes it was a standalone Saturday morning the the first of three no it was the first of three it was the first of three okay yeah it was Vikings Colts and then it was like Browns Ravens and then the night cap was good I forget who played I remember I was very close to like the night cap was Bill I just couldn't do it I ended up watching that game like oh my God was it a 33 Point comeback 36 it was is going to screw this up it was 33 nothing I think at one point 33 nothing amaz
ing um speaking of the Colts they get Mitch Mitch trabis as the yers say oh no Mike trabis that's a Frank Frank Frank prank sent me that a while ago I do love my uh I do love my yang Lings and I love my yers and this team sounds like what full practice I think with 10 days C High Smith is a little less likely but that probably probably clears um otherwise I I just I guess I wonder is this a good get right spot for M Tris because this defense hasn't looked good uh deante Johnson didn't practice t
oday which is is N N's been missing time I think Al Landon Al Landon is just always going to be kind of missing practices He's just never going to get to 100% at this point um divorce Buckner is limited but I think that's been one of those two where he's just constantly been limited missing their right tackle most likely again with Smith do you have Smith kind of pen his out I think he's out so if you have both your pass rushers healthy you're missing one of your tackles and you have a team that
hasn't been able to run you kind of got a Sitting Duck of a mustachioed quarterback back there at least he's a gunslinger so yeah Gunslinger makes me think turnovers yeah I'm I'm tempted with a like a Steelers money line look here just I guess talk me through what's gonna happen with this offense that is gonna get anything out of trabis at this point it looked it looked kind of it looked kind of bad and there were some quotes too from they asked obviously if you're a sports writer in Pittsburgh
what do you ask Tomlin hey any chance that we get Rudolph and he did didn't say no he did not he said we're going to have him basic we're going to have him rep we're going to have him ready if he need because they said like last week a big reason they didn't switch he just didn't have the Reps to go I guess like they weren't comfortable with it they said he's gonna be a little more prepared this week so this could be a spot where you get a quarterback change I don't have a material difference b
etween current Mitch trais and historical Mason Rudolph I think it's probably a wash but that but it's especially a wash because that means trabis is playing poorly enough that you're Swip swapping right like it means that you know your whatever downgrade you had from picket to trabis which sounds insane to say out loud but whatever the downgrade was was probably not enough if they do pull the switch but here's what I'll say any if if they do pull the switcheroo and if Mason Rudolph um yeah that
's a good call I had that joted down I love you like there's with whenever you have a hey this quarterback might get pulled there's nothing more beautiful than having those unders and sitting them on the bench especially when you have the potential for Deontay Johnson not playing and when you're going up against the Colts team in a total of 42 and a half in a Steelers game like those numbers are going to be inflated anyway so yeah trais unders sounds super to me uh I'll tell you what Andy if um
uh if they pull the switch if they pull the switcheroo and they uh they play they put Mason in there and he leads them to Victory I mean got to put tomin back in the coach of the year race right Jesus [ __ ] yeah yeah um look man it would be a Christmas miracle if rudol was able to lead this team out of the darkness I don't really want to see either of these teams in the playoffs I guess slight coaching ad or you know coaching advantage to shade St in here um I take exception with this total bei
ng 42 and a half um I bet a little bit of that today uh I saw it move from about 41 and a half to 42 and then 42 and a half and I was like I've been took the under correct under yeah yeah because I because I because I think the injury news for the Steelers is bad for the over I think the injury news for the Colts is bad for the over there's a lot of discontent with those wide receivers as well right now oh surely it's it's it's kind of a messy team Deontay johnon keep me off the Steelers Deontay
Johnson might be thinking about free agency he's he's gonna he might call his own number I got a funny feeling uh not to play that is not callone number to play um so uh yeah I think under 42 is is a decent is look I like 42 and a half better is that moved at all I guess it's back down to 42 yeah I think it should be like 41 and a half so I don't know slightly under 42 I guess but I like 42 and a half better ready to keep cooking yes Denver at Detroit I got nothing here man I like the Lions a l
ittle in a nice bounceback spot I think they match up it's another defense that I wonder if uh has been sold a little high it's been a team that you know really really let the like we said this on Sunday the high leverage plays decided that game yes they ran the ball okay without their starting center correct they weren't bad they just had the turnovers they were one for five on Fourth Downs they just I mean if you end what seven drives like that without punting you're not going to beat anybody
I don't care and and you know Chicago moved the ball really well against a bad defense like I I've watched this Broncos offense it's inconsistent I guess would be the word for it we see some nice things out of it Sutton is like again a true star I can't believe Judy sucks like that one of the biggest surprises when coming out like him coming out of the draft wow I I would have put money like this guy's gonna make it yeah I don't understand what's wrong there so little bit inconsistency the numbe
r is just a little big so I like the Lions here at home again it is the Bron was third straight week traveling again strangely third straight week traveling to an indoor game it matter I think it matters more late in the season uh around the holidays like Hey we're on the road again Grumble Grumble like it can affect morale a little I suppose I'm not gonna put that into the handicap but I'm I think this is a little I'm closer to like a four and a half five it's not a huge Advantage but I'm littl
e little close to betting this this total like you said good call by you this was 46 and a half it has ticked up there's places it's not it's not a big but I didn't get a good stake on it so I'm out on this one I do like um I do like maybe that's the look a little bit of a hybrid of what you said and what I said with the Lions team total would be like 26 here yeah especially with uh ragn now trending in think he plays Lions offensive line if ragna plays if they're at full strength they're going
to run they're going to run effectively on the Broncos I Decker yeah Taylor Decker practiced as well uh so the the Denver injury report too was um what was it uh Sage pin did not practice Bonito the linebacker did not practice their safety hasn't practiced yes P PJ lock so couple of defensive players injured for Denver knowing that moves the needle no I mean it matters in the sense that you could be down a couple starters but they aren't they aren't the yeah Broncos defense is obviously much imp
roved we've talked about that a million times I'm tired of talking about it um this is a tougher matchup for them just the way they are yeah I think so I think that's it I think that's it lions got bet from three and a half to five and then back to four so interesting 2A I get it if you if you made me if you were like all right hey let's play a game on let's P trick on everyone I'm gonna take the Lions you take you take the Broncos or I'll take the Broncos you take the Lions and we're going to j
ust make a case for a side I think you can make a case for either side here I think the numberers perfect L fine I don't have an opinion on this one I'm going to watch it anyway and we are we going to do a halftime show for this one you think prime time Saturday you want to or taking Saturdays off taking Saturday no I mean uh not anymore I kind of looked at I'm like I guess I'm just working every day for the rest of the year because there's so to yeah I can do it I'm I'm going to be in rare form
on Saturday I just will warn you right now do a virtual handshake okay virtual no other way other way this is us the same hand I think he had use other hand okay there we go I'm bad at the virtual hand sh holy [ __ ] get super [ __ ] up so bad at it okay yeah for sure 21y old Andy let's get happily happily yeah we'll talk some Broncos linos at halftime that'll be fun um all right uh keep moving that's and that's it for Saturday and again mentioning those injuries in that game they do have a sho
rter period of time to get those guys back although it does look really good for the Lions offensive line which I love for their part they are in a spot where they kind of need to write the ship as well there's some knocking if they lose they can be one game up on Minnesota or Green Bay I I dude I'm I'm fine with the Lions getting in as a three seat like I give up on Green Bay I don't think there's a real path for them to steal I kind of don't want Denver in the mix for the AFC man I don't like
this Denver team for like playoff entertainment value it's not for they're not for me I don't like Sean pton being in the mix for Coach of the Year like a good healthy Broncos loss and we can kind of bury them would be a delight um one final thought on the Broncos more and more like Philly Jean King every day Brett one more thought on the Broncos and Jerry Judy um if you could have picked one game to watch with one athlete this year uh watching the Chargers Broncos game with Steve Smith Senor wo
uld have been pretty [ __ ] great that would have been pretty sweet because of the Jerry Judy fups in that game uh and you remember a million years ago Senor and Jerry Judy had a little uh Little T little little uh dust says there you go on Thursday in football I think anyway that would have been Delight anyway Falcons Panthers I had a real weak I got a real weak weak weak weak weak opinion that the Panthers should be a bet at three I'm kind of with you and then I said Andy you're betting on the
Panthers what are you doing you um you got away with betting against Atlanta last week and a big part of their success was the fact that Tampa Bay is just you know missing so many off or defensive players yeah um but man they lost Jake Matthews to the knee injury like nobody nobody practiced hardly so like you know you were already you had dolman McGary Matthews yeah Auda is injured on on Yamada yeah Lindstrom didn't practice Matthews didn't practice McGary was limited I think so they could be
down or let's just say they're going to be down two and a half starters on the offensive line yeah versus so Brian Brian Burns didn't practice today but we might be JC Horton was a rest day there's a lot of rest in the Panthers why they need rest be hon I think Burns might be rest stuff too but like I can see the Panthers defense having a good day against this uh this beat up offensive line gross gross weather cannot cannot get behind the Panthers offense even at home in this spot ah like what d
o the Falcons need to get to to cover this number it's not a high number they need I mean just a couple broken plays and the Panthers love teasing this the Falcons probably need 17 points to cover three it's it's uh Mickey Hills it's a lot of nope versus nope for me here's here's I I'll be you want to be you want me to be candid about why I talk to myself into disa pther uh they are the least pick side in contests I was gonna say it's it's a nice little uh contr game game game theory contr play
I gotta make up I gotta make up uh season long wins against the top of the pool I think I gotta use Panthers because I I I do think with the weather and with the Panthers defense there's there's a there's a path for them so and and again I think it's probably related to the under if you like the Panthers you like the under um which leads you to do you just like Atlanta team total under in a spot where it's gonna be like it's gonna be 18 and a half or something like that but like Atlanta getting
to 20 in this one I mean nice out nice output last week but again they're missing so many good players for Tampa on that side of the ball so I don't I don't love this game I don't want to get involved I'm not sure there's a prop I could love here um the other thing about that I that I wanted the other the other reason I used to talk myself into the Panthers being honest is um Falcons are are pretty pretty weak at pressures um they got one pressure on Baker Mayfield last week one uh the weeks tha
t they really excelled in pressure kind of were at the beginning of the Season like the first time these two teams played in week one the F's got 15 pressures it's just with the you know like the old heads getting old on the dline and just in general like the injuries they've sustained they're just not a team that generates a ton of pressure anymore so if Bryce young does have time to operate maybe he's not an absolute atrocity I don't know yeah gry Jared rip Kay Campbell Bud Dupri like these gu
ys were just too old they're not doing anything they were they were kind of old I'll give they were kind of old um all right let's head to the mistake on the lake yes Where The Red Hot Bears take on the red hot um I mean grandfather Joe Flaco who again as we mentioned when we did the breakdown in Minnesota ciny Joe Flaco it was right there they're trusting him to go deep which they might have to do again or they might at least have to throw again because Ford and Hunt I think were limited or dnp
s today um like Cleveland actually Cleveland is maybe the most injured team I like this off the bat I talked about it Sunday I said I would strongly consider betting the Browns in a nice situational spot but my God they're down like three good offensive tackles on the year now Denzel Ward was a dnp today Juan Thornhill the safety did not practice with his uh his calf injury Ford and Hunt both running backs didn't practice all the good like Cooper and Garrett those were legit legitimate rest days
they lost another pass rusher in I so bad at saying this guy's name Ogo aaro the pack injury that's probably up that's probably a season call him double o yeah double O is good enough um they had another Jordan Elliott that was a concussion I'm not sure what the update on him is um their Center had a stinger so I mean they're really really beat up um I I guess as long as Garrett Cooper and Flaco play that's a thing yeah I took this under and it got thrown right back in my face maybe part of tha
t was just the fact that you know some of these defensive players were were limited and then on you know on the Bears side we saw um I guess brisker was limited ngak he's out for the year for the Bears I'm not sure he was a big part of what they were doing but he was like the sixth or seventh in pressure Mont sweat in five games has more pressures than in the season by a lot so I I still like this under um you can get a better number than me but I took some 37 and a half I'm still fine with it I
think this is a much much much tougher test for what the Bears have been doing lately like I don't think you can go much further from you know biggest Delta possible getting to play the Lions defense versus this defense like at home Browns the road big Del possible yeah the Browns have been in a weird split that doesn't still make sense to me have been a bunch better defense at home miles Garrett has a weird Road home split like you mentioned on Sunday after we watched he looks fine he looks li
ke he's recovered uh I worryed and I know we were going to do a lot with a Wards but I'm not super sure why he's a dog right now how he's looked for the entire season I think if you like the Browns you might want to dabble on defensive player of the year if you want a fun future you can almost get either I don't get it either the Browns I think the Browns just have to make the playoffs and I think he wins I I don't think there it's any more complicated than that M Micah can have some big splash
plays in some big important games coming up playing a bunch of quarterbacks that don't get sacked yeah they're that's an issue too and and Miles Garrett is playing Justin Fields this week uh who does like to get sacked I will say that the Bears offensive line has been playing a lot better lately so maybe this not they draft they drafted okay they drafted well but they are also on the road in a hostile environment and the I think it's the literally the stadium in the noise that's really helping u
h the the uh Browns dline have the advantage in every single pass passing down um yeah I agree with you under still why I got bet back up I I guess somebody's looking at the injuries to the Browns and is like oh yeah we got this for sure um I made a mistake on matchbook pod today I thought Denzel Ward had played uh in the F last game I thought he was like trending in and I and I saw the I watched the tape and there's a guy out there looks just like him and I okay Ward's back he did not play so d
on't know if Ward will be back uh the fact that he didn't practice today yeah dnp is is little well not only that so so if Thornhill doesn't go yeah Grant delpit who craz signed a huge contract extension like [ __ ] hours before he got hurt he was IR he is possibly back they elevated Don Harmon of Pat I mean if they're down two safeties issues um did you see DJ DJ Mo too though so I he's an ankle injury so the ankle injury for DJ Moore was really a head scratcher because he played up to the fina
l snap of that uh and it was it was something that happened earlier in the game oh it did okay so maybe it's not a big deal well that's what I'm saying like sometimes you just you take your medicine get some extra tape and let it swell up the next day in the fourth quarter there were some passing downs and some running Downs where he didn't really like get off the line but he did run routes he ran some routes towards the end they targeted him uh okay well whatever the case is I'm already but I'm
already into this under and looks like I don't think I have much clv to speak of at all this week in fact I don't know I have anything I don't think I have anything so far um um Tampa the battle for the Bay Tampa Bay Green Bay the classic a NFC Central right NFC Central this was such a fun division back in the day um it was always the Bucks and the Lions as the seller dwellers um Buccaneers got a nice win last week when Atlanta went brain dead on the last play uh it's been fun I don't know how
many I think my word I Ed for Tampa Bay I don't think it's sustainable to expect this much at a baker Mayfield week in and week out uh Jordan love took a little step back I mean it was painfully apparent it's just like these were the mistakes he made early in the year that we weren't seeing during the stretch where he looked good like there was that third early on maybe the second Drive possibly the first drive it's like a third and three he had you know Wicks or dubs right there on the edge for
just an easy little dumball pass for like five and a first down misses it badly he had some very bad misses the announcers were blaming the wind yeah I saw some throwing he wasn't throwing that deep I don't know if the wind can take balls like that that far off course so I'll have to send you that one weird there was a couple of uh l22 Clips circulated today where literally the ball kind of did a specific retargeting which I would never say and the metal lands is notoriously weird like that it
does have weird swirling winds so maybe you know maybe we can give him a little bit of a pass there but he looked bad at times they still almost won the game what are you going to do you got the cutlets up against you short week facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who yeah you know just it's it's the same thing like so Ryan Neil went out last week with an injury Jamal Dean Devin white didn't play uh the dnp list today was Carlton Davis will gston Godwin who's been banged up a little again Ryan Neil
via Devon White and the Long Snapper multiple Long Snapper things to talk about this week but yeah we have like uh six replacement centers and several replacement long Snappers all a sudden it's a whole thing uh AJ Dylan didn't practice I guess with a thumb injury I think that's still a like a just a what I have from yesterday would be like uh here's who would have practiced they didn't actually practice the day after a game kind of thing ke kissan Nixon who returns kicks as a quad and then Jade
n Reed Wicks with the ankle injuries and then their safety Darnell Savage has that shoulder injury so a lot of banged up players in here I think this number is pretty good should be I think it should be bigger for the Packers I'm fine I'm fine pack laying Packers here I trust uh I almost looked at this over too but I don't love the injuries if the Buccaneers defense is rough and nobody goes out of those dnps and we get like Savage injured or Savage not playing at all you can for sure pick on thi
s Packer secondary a little too so like I guess weather dependent I kind of like this over okay uh I I'm fine laying I laid three and a half at a at a favorable price for the Packers because I think this has blowout potential Packers um I like that if the Packers can get into a positive game State bucks are going to have to play into their strength uh and I like that honestly just like the the cluster injury for the bucks here on the defense is concerning uh the pass Pro for the bucks is maybe t
heir one bright spot of the entire team and now they're on the road in a hostile environment um I think there's potentially here for the Packers pass rush which was uh I say the packs Pro for the Buccaneers is their their one hot spot and they're in they're in distress here uh with the environment and the Packers pass rush which was useless against the Giants should be able to have a little bit more of an effect on this game um fine writing off Packers Giants outcome as Packers got into a negati
ve game State and uh you know the Giants got to play into their weakness defensively and the Packers were a little bit overrated and combine that with the had been reading a little bit too many of their press clippings in terms of who was how good they were maybe before that Giants game so um plus Tommy cutless does have a little bit of JuJu I don't know yeah they gave up like 158 yards to Tommy cutet that's what it takes to win player of the week God sad State of Affairs um I think the Packers
are good enough to being laying three and a half at home with the Buccaneers so with the Buccaneers defensive injuries being key also you know what if your quarterback's not mobile I don't mind taking you on against the the Packers as well like Baker Mayfield's still dealing with mobility issues uh not scrambling not rushing uh he could be a Sitting Duck back there I don't consider him a statue but well he's hurt he's not yeah I was gonna say he's not healthy yeah Tucker craft Tucker craft has d
one a very I'm glad he brought that up fimac South Dakota States Tucker craft has done a very nice job kind of stepping into where uh it was a Musgrave Musgrave with the that's a madeup name they drafted they drafted two tight ends yeah compar I compared them both to Travis Kelce in the summer they're they're both like the exact same size and they were both guys I think craft and mus crave were guys who missed some time like their senior years a little underrated they're both very good like craf
t has been craft has been sneaky good which he's gonna have to be if if they're facing some uh injuries that's something that's going to keep me off this for now I want to hear good news about Wicks I want to hear good I there's no shot that like uh Watson is coming back that is still a multi-week injury with that I think so but like I'm very low probability I think in that case is what I'm reading but I want Reed and Wix practicing later in this week that'll make me feel a little better hey uh
you want to tell me last time the uh naal champion last time the Bucks won on the road this year Andy I don't think they have oh no they did they beat the Saints 26 to9 back in week four it's been a long time um all right let's keep moving I think the past protection really is what and the weather up here the weather CU only reason because we're traveling this weekend so I looked at like the weather it's crazy like the weather for January or December this this uh I don't know global warming yeah
I take it back they they beat the Falcons they beat the Falcons last week on the road but before that it was week four anyway um oh yeah on Tampa Bay I couldn't even remember the fact that I got a win I think I I think they're they're a better bet at home and I'm circling him actually week 16 against the Jaguars at home that's going to be interesting one because they maybe get get some of these players back by then they're going to need it give me a percentage on stoud what do you think zero I'
m at five one one it didn't seem Davis Mills is a sizable drop off here especially the fact that I mean I don't think Nico Collins is probably somebody who's going to go zero yeah yeah I mean it's very low Noah Brown didn't practice willing Anderson picked up an ankle injury he didn't practice today laramy tonsil which could be you know that just could be some rest too for the big F he didn't practice Blake Cashman had uh had this hamstring injury he's probably missing a week or two for their de
fense uh T tavir I never say this guy's name right either T Thomas the corner he I think it was the same thing hamstring sounds like he's missing a week or two this went from a very fun team to H [ __ ] everyone's injured we might lose to the goddamn Titans and will Levis yeah um who isn't a great quarterback most of the time again nice deep Ball but if you can be oh [ __ ] we have a we have a couple starting defensive players out for an already susceptible defense I can't say I'm betting on the
Titans here but uh Sam say uniform Revenge game our own dance says the Titans wearing Oilers uniforms against the Texans is nasty business this is also a Revenge game for Mr DeAndre Hopkins yeah who I think would be delighted to uh lay some uh I can't see these two logos together not think about Andre Andre Johnson beating the [ __ ] out of that was awesome God courland finegan walked away like you won that fight too but you got perked for a little bit this is uh the first V this is the first o
f another one of the AI [ __ ] divisional sandwiches there's like 10 of these this year and they're all stupid weird they're all stupid and this is uh so we go we got uh Titans Seahawks Titans oh sorry Texans Titans are playing Texans Seahawks Texans cool fun we're gonna learn a lot about this team in the next few weeks like I I hate this cluster of common opponent stupid um I will say that the Titans were impressive in effort on Monday that's for sure uh the no quit down 14 three minutes to pla
y is not something I would have expect expected out of that they have a good coach like they have a legitimate good coach their defense played well too there's no way to slice it I mean I know they the bunch of the Dolphins got hurt but the Texans defense that they they should have been absolutely gashed in that one and it just didn't happen here's my a lot of people listen to this podcast not as many as you know it'd be cool because at that point we didn't get like ads from Delta and stuff but
sure enough people listen where I think somebody somewhere might have an answer to this and I just want to know what the deal with tayer Tart Is it's been the second week in a row he's been missing time for personal reasons and I I scoured the beat reporters I scoured the team sites I just Googled his name I put his name in search bars all over couldn't find anything it's not even a big deal but now it's just bothering me if somebody knows what the deal is with terer tart let me know he didn't p
ractice day neither did Jeffrey Simmons is that's isy for the a def defense that put Christian Fon on the IR as well as another defensive lineman more I think Pesco is more or PCO I don't think he was a I don't think he's a needle mover either but you never want to lose depth when you're a bad defensive team anyway um when is the best time to lose a bunch of good defensive players when you're playing Davis Mills minus maybe three wide receivers yeah this total might be high is it all right someb
ody might have an answer might be a sick sick uh sick or ailing family member that see that's what I was wondering if it's just like does he have like a family member in the hospital or something because it wasn't like some sort of Team discipline thing yeah he's not mourning the loss of Frank week he's not dealing with Seasonal effective disorder well how about they winning winning that game and the Titans won a game in Crazy unprecented fashion right after Frank week passed like what a nice ve
ry homish one of the first plays that I watched and like you realized in the moment like oh I'm going to remember this for the rest of my life like this saw this was crazy and then my gosh the the Deshawn Jackson pun returning and some GI it's just like like I was with my Dad I'm like holy [ __ ] was that was this like a really crazy thing he's like yeah that was the first one you want to guess what the first one I remember is mine was the first play I ever watched and I didn't realize in the mo
ment the first game I remember watching was uh Norwood Scott Norwood that was what I was gonna say really Norwood yes my dad absolutely the the funniest thing was like in my when when I asked who was playing and I I thought the bills was such a stupid name I just imagined a bunch of like dis dismembered duck Bills running around a football field and my dad said like if he makes this kick to Andy they they'll win the Super Bowl and wi and he missed I'm like well that's not good he's like no no th
at was bad um wide W was where I was going too that's the first one I that's the first play I remember I saw yeah that's the first like game I really remember watching I saw I saw stuff before that I remember Doug Williams in the Redskins when I was in DC really really really young kid um and I remember Joe Montana winning against the Bengals and Boomer aison but the SC Scottwood Norwood Miss was was huge uh the next big kind of key play I Remember was the Leon let fumble remember that where Leo
n let was running back the fumble and Don B Don B ran him down I think it was Don B ran him down and popped it out in the Super Bowl that was like the Michael Jackson oh my God this was one of those two where it's just like I remember this being like that Dyson reached Kevin Dyson trying to reach and the Rams tackling him that was massive that was crazy yeah okay fun times I'm not betting this game I have nothing either let's keep moving oh speaking of not betting this game speaking of not betti
ng he just just give me your temperature I forget about the numbers like who the hell knows what's going on with Carr who the hell knows what's going on with the Saints the Saints is off the injury report man but but which is I guess what that is true that's a lie that's right that's right but sleeping without so much medicine it is such a that is the Saints is such a mess um what give talk to me about Tommy cutlets is this real what's going on here he's trusting his arm man that last throw to w
as that wandell yeah W Robinson that was he didn't big numbers it was a dart but I mean he made the place when he had to there's something for that um it was a coaching staff we trusted last year why not now they couldn't run the ball worth [ __ ] and the Saints defense despite losing ladar it still has some it still has some pieces that said I'm not into to laying this many points in the Saints the Giants have had a nice landing spot for Tommy with some home games and some opponents where he co
uld look good um go look at that was it the Patriots game they basically neither team did [ __ ] bub kiss I mean he's not a good quarterback this isn't something we should is going to be a long-term thing I don't think I've been wrong before I don't think he's the long-term answer for the Giants it's a very fun story and for all my Italian friends it's awesome that spread at the tailgate looks so good I want to make some big CD right now I still I'm I'm struggling to see why the Saints should be
favored by six over anyone I know the Giants are near the Giants are very much near the bottom of my ratings but the Saints aren't that far up nobody from the NFC South is um this is this is about a point High I still can't take the cutlets on the Road can you uh make a fake okay that's all fair can you make a fake profit Exchange Market for me oh I would love to do that total EPA head-to-head Bryce young last week Tommy cutlet this week it just have to be over his number I like that we got to
come up with one for uh I would handicap handicap though that that performance cuz like if if Tommy cutlet is outperforming 1.01 like we live in a very very interesting world two two same sample you know Common sample on the road at the Saints you know relatively the same Personnel you're up against like if Tommy cutlets gets more than six points and is closer than uh Bryce young my goodness gracious that is a uh an indictment of uh whatever process the Carolina Panthers went through to draft Br
yce young I guess um but uh yeah I mean I don't know I'm somebody asked weren't the pan this is essentially the same line as we saw versus the Panthers yeah I have the Panthers and Giants rate it terribly close I almost took the P again it was one of those man I can't lay these points with the Saints can I what do you think about the fact that Giants have Andrew Thomas back and uh just in general are a little healthier across the interior offensive line that helps uh Neil Neil didn't practice to
day I don't think think he's been bad he's been and again so they're off a Monday so I think it's it's estimated practice for Wednesday but Dexter Lawrence and asan Robinson were limited Evan Neil is limited they're getting healthier I mean it was pretty rough for a while there and then you know on the Carolina side or EXC yeah the the saint side I don't know we keep bringing up Carolina we keep going back to that horrible horrible team uh alive has an ankle injury they're already down all the o
ther receivers but they signed James Robinson and T so tames is back taes is Back That Matters for this offense he's like it or not a part that matters for this team they can do stuff with him I love it when he gets the ball in his hands uh just not interested this either number the total man no totals no clue I I have literally no way to handicap this game I have no idea what's going on uh let's keep going to Jets I should look at this at rolling five for a player of the week I did back is Mr Z
ach Wilson who somehow someway got selected as nfc's afc's player of the week over Lamar Jackson last week red me that one uh but yeah the Jets take on a Dolphins team that picked up the wrong injuries at the wrong time um boy oh boy the Dolphins have had a very favorable stretch of games and they are about to go to schedule hell and that is not the ideal time to lose your starting center who is very good it is not not just like he's out to the playoffs he done that yes not good not good Ty up n
ot great not not yeah Tyreek steps slow not great Jaylen Wadd came out of the game not great zaven came out of the game not greatan has a toe injury yeah Liam ikenberg has a calf injury oh he's your rep mikenberg is your replacement Center by the way yeah he is he is filling in moving into Center and he is now hurt with a calf injury yep uh and again this was Armstead was Armstead hunt mostard was most it was rest I said but Tyreek Armstead and Hunt were Rob hunt was do not not practice did not
practice on the estimated report and they they signed Melvin Ingram actually I looked he he last year right he had some productive games for the Dolphins last year another year older but I guess they're doing something on this defense they need it because you know what helped them put away a 14-point lead against the Titans a semblance of a pass rush yeah that was crazy that they let that people it's crazy how much of a [ __ ] teas they wear for the people who took Miami too all of a sudden it's
like oh my God I'm goingon to you you went so long thinking you're dead and then like oh my God we're going to cover we're to cover oh what's going on and then yeah [ __ ] win dude the under backers too under was home free until it wasn't um all right I think the Dolphins are in trouble in this spot I think this is a huge huge huge test for them against a very good defense I think the entire matchup comes down to dolphins offense versus Jets defense quinnon Williams is a factor in this one in m
y opinion the Jets pass rush in general being able to generate quick pressure against Tua is a factor uh I don't think the Dolphins are schemed or set up well at all to take advantage of some of the uh ways you want to attack the Jets and the Jets defense might be playing the best football of any defense right now it's not it's not that's not a controversial opinion um I think Jets offense with Zack Wilson playing a little YOLO ball uh Not a Bad Thing uh he was obviously very in his head uh in t
he first stint he had as the replacement quarterback and I think he he could be more dangerous what do you think did you think we'd see a j a dolphins total under 40 against a good defense not crazy we talked about why right this is low because of the wind which might not matter that's the thing so like I'm starting to be f i I'm fine with it I'm fine with Van GLE I'm fine with HBA but they didn't get a pass rush against you know an off defensive line they probably should have got a pass rush ag
ainst late so I think I think this under is probably a little or this over is probably a look to it's a good defense but it's still the Dolphins they need to get this done it's a home game the wind isn't actually going to be a factor I don't believe and Zack Wilson in dgaf mode is better than Zach Wilson playing scared he looks just confident yeah I still don't know if he's going to be some long like maybe he catches on somewhere else and he's a middle of the pack quarterback as a starter now th
at he get his head right well supposedly they told him not just you lost your job to Tim Bole but we're moving on from you on the off season yeah like we're we're done with you as person we despise you at a molecular level they said yes there was I think was that was that an exact quote exact quot yeah yeah so no they uh they you know the severing of ties I think is maybe notable in how he's playing YOLO bear chewing its leg off from a trap like he has no other options he has to go there and pla
y Yolo ball yeah he he's got to put some film on tape he's got to he's got to get uh he's got to get a backup job somewhere else next year he knows it now Minnesota Vikings starting quarterback next year Zach Wilson yeah well um so yeah I mean I I don't the Dolphins defense being a little bit uh exposed to the Deep pass against the Titans was bizarre Garrett Wilson's probably licking his chops for a chance to do some of that exactly that's l only play it's like Chuck yeah Chuck I mean the Falcon
s just didn't know that was coming like Dan Dan has been you know sad he makes a comment every time the Titans look like [ __ ] it's like of course he has this one good game ever against the Falcons but basically it was just like four pretty good deep balls and they just didn't oh it was it's the shack name oh I was not familiar with your game and then when people took that away like oh this guy sucks donkey balls he's not good but yeah if you don't pressure him he still has that and you know if
you're going to be a little beat up secondary wise and you have Zack Wilson playing with some confident GIS Wilson is a legitimate star um just maybe maybe don't shy away from getting him the ball in space more it's a this this team these teams can both get to 20 because you know it's Dolphins against a good defense but still the Dolphins so yeah I'm I'm tempted by another under or excuse me an over in a gross game here okay well I'm not stopping you but I I took the points with the Jets I thin
k the Jets are allowed to win yeah I think the Dolphins are in deep trouble the Conor Williams thing is bad news for them it is not great honestly the only thing the only thing I will say sure and it hasn't shown up every week and it's been a problem they should have been able to put last week away and we've had some very weird Dolphins games this year but they do have a nice tendency when they need to they get the ball out very quick so if we're not seeing even if we are seeing more interior pr
essure and more getting home through the middle because you're struggling in the interior offensive line with a new center I still think they're able to get rid of the ball quick enough to maybe not matter we might just see less deep balls because you're not going to be able to let those plays progress um yeah and dolphins is a teaser leg is probably going to be happening okay you ready for this one yes let's postulate that we live in a world where the Dolphins lose this game yeah Dallas Buffalo
competitive coin flippy want to give it to Dallas fine fine Dallas at Miami next week right now is a pick them on the look ahead to minus one and a half on the look ahead what does that reopen if the Dolphins lose this game to the Jets two and a half ad way if if they look really good against the bills I could see the other side of three if it's a if it's a beat down on the bills I mean even just like a you know you win by 10 total control of the game offense looks offense misses No Beats yeah
you could open but two and a half okay okay yeah um bad time for the Dolphins to get hurt yeah they just they don't unless there's injuries they don't seem to make massive adjustments like that this late in the season off look ahe heads you know you need to be like hey easn stick is in the game all right we'll move at seven points okay KC at New England uh so then my takeaway speaking of Buffalo my takeaway from Casey Buffalo and I think you had the same one was like hey I don't think I trust ei
ther of these teams to like no neither one of them as good as they were two years ago no it's it's like I don't see either Nei of these teams doing something important in the playoffs which is crazy because we started the season with this high hopes of oh my God the final four and you know Joe burrow being injured put a big dent in this but the final four in the AFC could be so epic and now it's just like Baltimore is clearly the best team in the AFC and they have a bunch of flaws Miami is scuff
ling the Chiefs are scuffling if Kelsey isn't having the game of his life their offense doesn't move the defense is getting injury after injury Buffalo is like seven and six and going to struggle to even find it like I really am in a head space now where like Joe Flaco is in the game late in the AFC title game with a chance to go to the Super Bowl this is this is a bunch of AFC all the top teams in the AFC are super susceptible Mega flly and there there's a game where I mean there's a lot of sit
uations where like Jake Browning or Joe flacko is in the AFC title game because they're teams that can just take advantage of teams like that no there's no like dominant teams that's crazy that this where we're at where yeah the two most the two teams I would want to play the least are probably right now is you know Dallas and San Fran yeah maybe the Rams Jesus the Rams can do the same thing the other side right now they're off so look man Dallas beat Philly last week Dallas could beat Buffalo t
his week Dallas could beat Miami next week I will still be pounding the table that Dallas hasn't beaten anyone good because the only good team in San Francisco and they got their brains beaten it's funny too Dallas Dallas even a much improved Dallas team there's a world where they look like that they beat they beat the you know let's whatever happens let's say whoever they play they beat the tar out of somebody yeah um as the two or three or five seed even if things shake out that way they beat
the Tara somebody else and they lose to the night ERS by 30 yeah in San Francisco Still Still I have such a gap now I'm at like three and a half points between the ners the next team man Philly trips one more time Dallas wins out Dallas is the two seed Dallas is a Sixpoint dog in San Francisco like what's the number in the NFC championship game in the one two and like I I might San Francisco there I would think about it at least um let me see D San Fran that that was three three and a half in we
ek five right three three like a juicy three I don't know here's here's a fun question how do you adjust HomeField in the playoffs by how much do you go up oh Bo I don't go up by a ton but yeah there's certain places where I'm like this is a full ass two yeah if or even more yeah I mean uh it's more for that matchup because you have uh Dallas's offensive line on the road and a hostile enir anything under six would be a very a bet for me right on we got to make a lot of assumptions that everyone'
s healthy and this is but San Fran at home under under six would be a bad yeah we live in a world this year where until Dallas beats San Francisco they haven't beaten anyone yeah Sunday night at the lake in the playoffs yeah it's big it's a big number four back in the day like night game in Seattle when the defense was good that was that was like Hey That's back in the days when they were giving him three you know that's like oh this is like a four yeah I mean Dallas at home this year in the pla
yoffs could be a huge home Field Dallas has been a very good home team um honestly dog pound Sun Sunday Night Football dog pound taking on like you know a lot of things have to go right because they're the road wild card but that's probably what stops them oh here here's a just throwing up prediction funds sure hosting the Bengals in the a title that's the week 18 game I really don't want to see that week 18 and then in the C champ AFC champ you get like three weeks before it happens again yeah
that's true all right um uh I just I want to see I want to see the Browns draw the Chiefs I want the Browns to go to Arrowhead and I want them to be eight and a half Point dogs and I want the points with the I said it on Sunday the 10 was probably too much here it was half I think so this is contest picks where the Patriots are only 35% of the pick you guys are much bigger um much choosier I was going to call you big old you know cowards much Chooser with your teaser legs I'm willing to just thr
ow all the math ones in there and let let let the you know kill them all let God sort them out kind of thing you know just if it's a tease your leg I'm firing I don't care all right this is one this is one where I am so terrified like this is the bottom of the teaser rankings right now you know that before Friday even hits here this is this is this is an eight and a half I couldn't even consider right now yeah the way the Chiefs are playing on offense the it's been a good defense and zappy proba
bly isn't GNA be as good as we saw but it's still been it's been an upgrade the big issue with this is uh the receiving core which honestly maybe the backups aren't it's not like like oh Devonte Parker is a fair and good receiver in the year of Our Lord 2023 but like Parker Juju and booty I call booty we're all limited Douglas is still in concussion protocol they're down to like nothing um talking about all they need is Hunter Henry and Zeke man last week say we saw him do it without honestly th
ey just need Zeke that's how you want to try to beat this Chiefs you just Runo guys aren't good so I it's like when you see oh your top four receivers are injured it's like is there a team where it matters less and then I think Juju plays and yes it is the second leg of the juju revenge tour my God he's he's like he's touring the country doing this um it is two really bad wide receiver groups that is funny that is funny half I don't know which one would be worse hly would lean towards New Englan
d still yeah so speaking of Revenge tours um postulate for me if there is an angle to Bill belich putting in extra work to get the defense playing especially well to spite the Patriots on his way out the door like we're gonna fight extra [ __ ] hard down the stret win some games and then I'll seal it did you buy those reports the that that that there's a mutual parting of ways after that Colts game I don't treat them as gospel but I I mean kind of a smoke there's fire because it's been something
that's been discussed and it's been baned around a little I I was going a different direction I thought you thought you meant it's like hey I'm I'm I'm the Old Guard I'm the best coach in the league I have been for 20 years oh yeah sure I'm gonna I'm not gonna let you know this young 60-year-old upstart and Andy Reed Show me up and you know him to be crowned like oh he owned bich he's the next on the list in terms of active wins he's coming for you he's coming for you um no the um uh the I gues
s you you're you're a German you're you're a germophile the deut file you you have an affinity for the uh the German culture is that what it is I don't think so man whatever the case is um the is it is a conscious uncoupling that happens in Germany is that is that honored by law in the United States when you come back because that's apparently where the uh the the bellich uh uh craft split happened it was on foreign soil so do we think that uh I guess really where I'm getting at is do you really
think this is the end of the road for Bel and the Patriots and if so how does that impact his decision making I mean you're right he would be spiteful about it I think I think so like that I think I still I still like the Pats at eight and a half but contest wise I would take it yeah um 18 points to the Steelers was the most that belich has conceded since that loss again low total just don't see them giving up like 28 here I consider this a probably low-scoring Affair both teams and the teens h
opefully it's not you know 19 to 10 yeah yeah if you didn't know a conscious uncoupling is refers to a relatively amicable marital divorce who's the one that brought that up who who was the one that made that famous though wasn't it Gwen gwth Gwyneth and Chris oh there's too many chrises Chris the Chris the the singer singer I was gonna say Chris Cornell that's not right Cold Play Coldplay Chris Chris Martin if you say is that right who's the Le singer Chris Martin yes yeah I don't mind Coldplay
guys man that was a way back in the uh that's way back in the uh the memory banks I'm considering Patriots in contests only just because they're relatively lightly picked here and at eight and a half points they got uh they got a chip cheing chance you know what else man you know when it's really really tough to cover big numbers at the end of the season like it's really tough or if you're the Chiefs ever or you're the Chiefs ever yes there are people that are going to talk themselves into bett
ing Chiefs at cloes on the basis of like I'm saying people like dip dip shits they're G to be like L the Chiefs the Chiefs they're angry about the false start last week this is going to be their best game of the season like you know people are going to talk themselves into that betting angle on Sunday I promise you I think I think it just it bodess poorly for what's happening there with Matt naggie of course like we said the lack lack of attention to detail the devil's in the details guys and gr
eat teams teams that win the Super Bowl take care of everything incremental gains doing everything right gaining a half of a half of a percent by doing one thing and then finding 50 things and doing them right getting that little Edge this isn't college football where teams are ever favored by 50 these are it's always going to be Marin the best team and the worst team are 20 points apart and there's so many teams in the middle narrow margins doing shits right guys so yeah like I'm worried it's a
lot of naggie just not being you know baby pamy was the stir that you know the strata stirred the drink here for keeping all the [ __ ] you know a tight ship see sounds like it sounds remember the reports where players were like oh he's kind of a dick he's like yelling at us early in the season I wonder if naggie is more of a players coach and it just kind of starting to unravel a little that's not crazy uh I also can tell you that naggie attention to detail on his game plan sucks two weeks ago
they lost to the Packers two weeks ago they lost to the Packers with what one Rush attempt for Pat Mahomes it was they bar they barely ran Pat Mahomes in that game Pat Mahomes is not dealing with an especially significant ankle injury they ran Pat Mahomes last year when he was on a high ankle sprain through the playoffs and he is the most destructive force as a Scrambler that exists in the NFL and you know who uh effectively executed a nice little quarterback scramble and Shred the Packers defe
nse Brian da with Tommy DeVito did it like like it it was right there and ngi missed it with Pat Mahomes somehow like that just seeing DeVito on the on the designed RPO stuff just made me want to scream uh on the rewatch of that Packers game so I was like where was this for momes man like he should have scored 40 on that defense what in the what are we doing um yeah so n's a problem I'm there ready to move on yeah there should be a conscious uncoupling of Andy Reid with Matt Nei this offseason I
'll tell you that he deserves better yeah um San Francisco is at Arizona San Francisco the aforementioned best team in the NFL San Francisco clinches the NFC West having already clinched a playoff spot they clinched the West with a win this week um the there are only two teams that I think can clinch with win only the ners oh three teams Niners can the Cowboys can and the Eagles can everybody else needs to clinch and have a series of other weird [ __ ] happened um these three teams need a tie ex
actly yeah there's so much of that where it's like once I see that I stop reading like oh you need like three different game stand in a tie for this to work out so Happ um so fine with this number I don't know I don't really care beyond this number I think this number is too small but I don't don't I don't doesn't mean I'm gonna bet it like just my my difference in in you know PRS here is like one to 31 kind of stuff wow and it's it's it's you know it's a big difference we have Kyler back but it
's still been a bad team I was talking about this team because I'm starting on my I was talking to Dre about this I'm starting on my draft prep and I think they actually drafted well last year it's just so hard to tell when the roster is so shitty but they got a nice tight end they got a nice offensive lineman a couple of the guys further down the board like a wide receiver and a running back have turned out okay I think this rebuild is going well it's just uh it's still a couple years away and
they have some really like they have three picks that are going to be in the top what 35 so this is going to be a fun year for the rebuilding very curious what they do you um that said man I wouldn't be trying to win this game you proved proved your point yeah um man go get that second pick Hollywood Mis practice today doesn't really move the needle for me against this team although that is the weakness they signed Jason verret the ners did that's how dry dire things have gotten in this defensiv
e back field um I didn't have a lot like charvarius Ward didn't practice hardgrave green law and Armstead didn't practice but yes it's still it's still Wednesday we'll wait to see how some of that hashes out if uh if there's a bunch of teams or a bunch of defensive players that don't end up going maybe a case for an over here because the only thing that's gonna you know keep the Niners going is just well Cardinal scored again we got to go do our thing score they could probably pick their number
but it's a big number on the road didn't cover they didn't cover the closer last week it was kind of just a it felt like a yman likee just hey punch in punch out get this win this is a team that doesn't deserve our best plays if that was Seattle I'm not sure what you know what Cardinals qualify as so it's a big number I'm not willing to lay on the road they might win by 30 they might win by 10 it'll feel like the probably the result wasn't end out either way yeah um would you surprise you to kno
w that P's best game this season in terms of total EPA came against the Cardinals in week four no that was like a that was like a what 30 to 10 kind of beat down it was not he you know what his EPA per play on that game was you want you want to just Hazard a guess how many plays did he have like 45 uh 25 plays that was his best in total EPA only had 25 plays so I've already tipped my hand here yeah well his EPA for play in that match up 1.06 every time you snap the ball into the hands of Brock p
ie you gained a point that's absolutely crazy I don't think there's another EPA I don't I I don't have this at at my fingertip but I think that was probably the best by single quarterback All Season no clue uh I will tell you this though the Niners do not under Kyle shanan the ners do not have a pension for taking their foot off the gas down the stretch like they throttled some teams down the stretch last year who they were clearly better than including the uh Cardinals who they beat in week 18
like 38 to 13 or something I forget exactly what the final score was actually let me look that up so I can give it to you exactly uh the week 18 result last year was 38-13 ners over the Cardinals at home not a competitive contest they are they are not a foot off the gas at the end of the season type of Team um the 35-6 win against the Cardinals earlier this season had no other starting quarterbacks or no other quarterbacks taking Snaps besides Brock py that I could tell you um Brock pie played i
n 98% of the offensive snaps so uh I don't know who played must been some long extended meaningless unproductive Cardinals drives I kind of want to go look at that box score now so I'm not I'm not betting this game so how does it work if 90 oh Sam darnold took one snap in that game T there was only uh there were 54 Brock py snaps one for Sam darnold um all right well no opinion on this one I I actually came into this game Thinking okay let's go Cardinals are off a buy they look pretty damn frisk
y against the Steelers let's find a way to make a case for the points here and I came up with nothing so this is a big old fat pass struggle to find a spot other than maybe like a cardinal second half if they're down by 25 like I'll take the Cardinals I'll take the Cardinals plus one here the year that the ners raced to the Super Bowl God damn that was a long time ago that was a 2019 season man feels like feel like what not that long ago uh that year they were just okay down the stretch they did
not have any U beatdowns God damn there were some good games at the end of that season they had a Rams game that was 3431 was gonna Seattle sticks with me do you remember the at the Saints game 48 46 with George like like mauling a guy and and and putting them in field goal territory to win that game in New Orleans 48 to 46 that was an awesome awesome awesome game um remember that I don't I don't remember that as much Jimmy garoo had four touchdowns there was an Emanuel Sanders touchdown pass f
or 35 yards that I George KD was just he he made the play of the game and it was going the K the K face mask yeah Drew Brees had five passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in that game and no turnovers and the Saints lost that's pretty wild that's one remember they gave Dre Brees that laminated certificate I do remember all I can all I remember of Drew Brees now at this point because my memor dust is that and when he was killed by lightning those are the two things that you remember yeah
all right let's keep moving uh Rams are taking on the commanders col's also coming off of bu this one's at six and a half I get why it hasn't gone to seven uh I get there are some injuries with the Rams that have me a little concerned this total is up to go seven and a half second bet it this is this is my other big regret from the from this is my other regret from Sunday because I said I kind of like another Rams over um and I missed the number here now it's probably tilting towards being a lit
tle too high but I guess I'm glad the market was with me on a thought that I didn't really get in uh Forbes is playing so that lends itself to and over sounds like he's tending in um hammer so Robinson off the buy still didn't practice um yeah um and then I don't know the Rams the havenstein havenstein is a little concerning there's like a bunch of second tier injuries that are a little concerning Tyler hi uh they put uh they put sure the guy no I don't think so either they put the other guy on
IR I can't remember his name he wasn't very good but his backup now is there's a lot there was a lot of there was a healthy amount of Davis Allen targeting in that uh Ravens game which made me a little uncomfortable um I thought he played well he played oh he did he did but like he's Davis Allen like is he gonna do that every week I don't think so like some weeks he's gonna drop a bunch of those um so yeah it was a it was a little little weird um I don't know Rams Rams are a little they're I don
't think they're on upset alert this week but I'm not dying a light points with them no I think this number is fine if if it keeps going it's close to a Commander's bet but also probably just a teaser yeah you know what I talked about all these ones where it's just like a man it's just a few point it's just a little bit too much this is the when I said hey remember that moneyline parlay that we're just going to put in for fun like man all these games it's like the the ram and I would never throw
the night I'm never a fan of throwing in like the minus 3000 leg into the money line parlay it doesn't get you anything and you know just risk for barely any reward but man Lions Rams Ry Lions Rams who's my third leg there what was the other one we liked early on I'm G have to look I think I missed one that you're talking about land points yeah or no just T taking the money line taking the M the meaningful favorites um God I don't know man Niners uh the uh yeah just not much there out on the Je
ts I mean Browns there you go Browns sure all right yeah I'm not gonna be I'm not gonna be super Ram's path to the playoffs is super narrow I'm nervous for that but I [ __ ] hope they get in because they're the fourth best team in the NFC right now it's gonna be tight I really um really hope they're in I really think I really think I manifested it and it's the one playoff bet that I love that I didn't make a lot of the other ones are kind of coming into coming into view and I think we're gonna g
et some of those home but man Seattle to miss the playoffs when we talked about it that was that was such a Miss because that is [ __ ] happening all right Dallas Buffalo wanted to back the bills coming into this week excited about it rewatch the tape against the the the um uh Chiefs and I pivoted hard Andy this is UN under for me I like what I saw in in real time like hey the Buffalo defense played okay and then I did some rewatching and I'm not so sure okay I'm I'm I'm giving more more blame t
o the chief's offense and you know like than I guess the Buffalo defense it's still not a good secondary it's still getting I mean just they can never get everyone all together and I know they'll never do that because a couple of the pieces were you know out for the year those kind of guys don't just come back but every freaking week like Micah H High did not practice uh AJ epinesa uh EpiPen I can never say his last name you got it right I think ESP panessa you said it right first time he nailed
it he's a pass rusher not not practicing Von Miller got rest Von Miller doesn't matter he's not playing at a a level that matters right now matter more um but I I struggle to see a spot where this bill's defense plays really well it is an outdoor cold weather game for a Cowboys team that's not easy but just try to limit Sidi have fun with that um yeah I I get where you're at like Russell dougl is play so if I'm putting together the defensive game plan for the bills it is absolutely the bend but
don't break yes don't give up the big play so I'm kind of with you on that under like Dallas is gonna [ __ ] get theirs but we're gonna make it take some time and we're gonna take advantage of what I haven't loved sometimes uh as much as we l McCarthy um I think McCarthy has been a pleasant surprise as far as the game plan and the game calling there's been some problems in the red zone that I haven't I haven't loved D all of it so I I think the game he really only [ __ ] up the Seattle game he
won that anyway he won I know I know that that's a thing like they just they're gonna beat bad teams they're gonna beat teams that they should beat that's like been their only close game on since the Chargers right there's only been like two oh that and the Eagles uh L he [ __ ] up that Eagles game too I think isn't the game isn't the game plan yeah that's the thing McCarthy and Dak kind of bobbled out at the end the game plan would be keep everything in front of you you're never going to stop t
his offense completely let McCarthy [ __ ] it up or try to get some stops in the Red Zone force field goals and you got to let Josh unleash he has to run he has to scramble he has to not make mistakes which is a problem they have a a couple ball Hawks on this defense so oh um I'm uh I'm tentatively hoping the bills can keep this close I want this to be a good game I don't have a I'd love the bills to win honestly I have some a longer shot on bills to make the playoffs I didn't get nuts with you
guys and take like Josh Allen MVP or bills to win the AFC I still don't think they had the chops but um I got a bigger number at them to win to get into the playoffs so I'd like to see the upset here bills have margin for error with the dolphins collapsing like the I think yeah I think we'll know early if the bills have a shot here you know if they play the kind of defense that I hope they play I think they're they're live in this game they're live to win and I think you're ERS very live yeah I
think the total 51 is really the best angle here my I came up with 48 for a fair um and I would normally pass because this is like a big show show this is a show off game you know like this is a bust out the uh the fancy plays type of game but you know the the still nonconference you know a little less important for the die Breakers but I mean at this point you got to get them all both teams are kind of in a spot where you got to win them all yes there are three factors two for the bills one for
the cowboys that got me to to an under here okay which ones do you which one do you want to hear first I mean can I guess them what were two for The Who two for the bills one for the Cowboys I mean you already talked like R Douglas and and the defense despite being beat up has been it's more about the cow it's more about the Cowboys being at a Pico top for their offense they played three they played three games they are selling a little in the Cowboys offense right now they they've played three
games in a row at home against the tomies the Seahawks and the Eagles if you've not been playing paying attention if you are not doing time weighted uh you know if you're not doing a recency uh time Decay ratings these three defenses are super super low they're low and the Cowboys got them at home okay so just the fact that you are now changing to a hostile environment and you are playing a defense that's probably League average that's dildos are going to be on the field these are all factors a
nd I think ultimately you're selling high on the Cowboys offense to a degree um your points are very fair I had even thought of that but yeah the bills are going to make them cross the street 500 times they're not going to let explosive plays happen at all like that's absolutely plan a for the bills um that's how that's how MC mcdermitt's operating right now he is play he's being very risk averse I think and I I really think it can limit Pard of course I completely agree with you I just don't th
ink has much juice right now I don't know if I don't know BD's hitting the wall because he's never had to be the guy they're using more and more Rico all the time so anyway I think there is there's definitely scope for the Cowboys offense disappointing you in this game for the reasons outlined okay and I think there's scope for the bills if you're GNA attack the Cowboys anywhere Andy you're gonna do it on the ground you're gonna let your be you're gonna let your beef in the trenches try to win a
nd you're going to let cook run a muck and you're going to try to shorten the game with your offense crossing the street as well I think and then the third reason which is the second bills reason is Stefon digs looks kind of cooked and I don't really know who is breaking this game open through the air for the bills because ccad's hurt Knox is dealing with injuries Gabe Davis's cement blocks for hands the most important receiver in the game might be khil Shakir or James Cook like those guys are g
ood but like if that's that's what you're counting on to beat these guys then it would be a fun ending for this nuts you know would be fun ending for this like a 40 something yard field goal for the bills right oh my God didn't think we didn't even think there was a rematch of those two Super Bowls this is funny um I would I would like to I I want anything but Micah Parson's picking up a fumble and running it in for a touchdown and getting knocked out of his hand at the goal line by uh Gabe Davi
s anything but that run down yeah so I'm kind of with you I'm I'm cheering for a Bills win here but I'm yeah uh I I also I don't trust sea McDermot with a lead to be aggressive okay his time management Kansas City I don't I like both of these coaches putting the plans together I don't like them in game sometimes not good not good not good okay so um final thoughts though on this game in terms of the side because I haven't taken a side here I wanted to be bills but I just I have actually have a l
opsided distribution to Cowboys winning by margin okay and that was kind of what ultimately kept me off here um I think there is scope for a Bill's narrow in there's scope for a Cowboys narrow wi absolutely this could be a very closely contested game that's like 24 20 2017 21 20 uh 23 you know I think there's very much scope for a close game but I think there's also scope for a Cowboys blowout if the Cowboys offense can answer the difficult you know the difficulty of playing Outdoors playing you
know against with with noise uh and they do have three very good you know I say two and a half very good healthy receivers um I'd give him going only giving him half for galp because he drops half of his passes but um cooks and and uh and CD lamb C lamb is wide receiver to in the NFL right now for me he cooks is clearly top 20 um you know they they have the weapons to do well if they can handle the noise and the the and the and the environment they can also turn the ball over pretty aggressivel
y and which could turn this into something like a 38 to3 type of game and the bills are I haven't had one of those in a while I know but I know it's in them and uh I think there is a chance that the Cowboys romp um cuz like I yeah I I just the there's some stink on the bills I can't say it any better than that I don't know why there's some stick it was a really nice way it was a really nice game to come out of with a win had to have it needed it it wasn't easy you made it harder on yourself you
got the win you moved on to the next spot but we can't just be like oh the bills are fixed they're they're all better you know like I and I think you're right if you do bet the Cowboys you probably want to sprinkle on some alts yeah right because there there there's two there's two the two trains of thoughts are the bills have been unlucky the bills have struggled the bills have had bad luck and bad variance they're actually a good team good teams plus Dallas equals a close game the other train
of thought is the bills just were terribly overrated the defensive injuries matter a lot last week was a game they should have lost they screwed it up their season should essentially be over what a Dallas Cowboys due to bad teams and if if it turns like I think I think we'll find out a ton about you know oh yeah question if the bills actually have anything yeah I'm I made this point already today so apologies if you're hearing it twice but if the Cowboys offense proves they can go on the road an
d do what they've been doing that is a [ __ ] very valuable very valuable thing to learn this week the NFC playoffs could be fun and then next week if the Cowboys defense can go toe-to-toe with the speed that Miami has that is a very valuable thing to learn about Dallas right so Dallas we don't actually really know I don't think how good they are going to be against the elite in the play it's crazy that we're 14 games in and we still do don't like it's Dallas good really good uh like it's it's n
ot it's we think they're good but the question is are they on on the same level asers yeah are they on the same level as ners and we don't know that and I think you'll learn if they can go on the road if the offense can go on the road and if the defense can handle speed those are the two tests for them the next two weeks sure and if they pass both of those tests then if any kind of any kind of buy you want to do on the Cowboys like I'm I'm not gonna stop you like gotcha yeah yeah um there's ther
e's ways to beat the ners I'm not I'm not really that scared of them if if the Cowboys can prove those answer those questions the keys to beating that just like we said I don't think anyone is super set up to stop the 49ers defensively but if you can get them in a track meet and win like it's an offense we've seen do that and yes they played each other once and it went very poorly uh wasn't a great situational spot for Dallas and once you know once you're behind it got a lot harder but that seco
ndary has taken some blows since honestly both have like I want to see the Dallas San Francisco game or the they both score 45 I'd watch that hell yes I 100% agree uh nighttime game Baltimore at Jacksonville Trevor looked fine man he I have no idea that guy was probably dope to the gills you could I saw somebody I don't maybe this wasn't about Trevor it was about somebody else with a a lower leg injury but there was a tweet basically said like you hit him in the shin with a steel bar right now h
e wouldn't feel it like yeah that that Pro that probably checks out um um so Jacksonville the so Ezra Cleveland who's filling in for Walker little who's filling in for cam who's the first cam Robinson cam Robinson um they everybody got hurt again but they're all practic Cleveland and Walker little both were limited they both practiced um which matters Tyson Campbell dayto day the safety dayto day Trey hearnen limited still in concussion protocol they could get some defensive players back if thos
e guys don't go the secondary is just shot to hell and it's already a defense that has been susceptible at times you need you need at least two of those guys playing I think between Campbell hearnen and Cisco in the defensive secondary otherwise this is a this is a tough one this total might be low at that point the Ravens and Lamar looked very good at times it's another one of these teams which just like are the Ravens good because it's been terribly terribly terribly inconsistent at times I do
n't know like uh I'm I'm pretty close in this number as well Hamilton the safety Notre Dame what secondy year guy he was limited in practice day roquan was limited I don't know that Hamilton goes I think ran does give me your synopsis on this Ravens defense um I think there are cracks I think a balanced attack I think actually what it is is a team with a good run blocking o line and a dynamic back I think can give the Ravens defense trouble and that's not what Jaguars have at all the Jaguars are
wicked one-dimensional they are only getting you through the air and I was more excited about the Ravens when I thought there was an offensive line cluster injury going on for the Jaguars but it does seem like Walker little or edra Cleveland or both might be available here so they might be just perfectly fine offensively here in terms of pass protection it's possible um the Ravens still do bring like a lot of simulated you know pressure you know variety uh which is tough to prepare for um but u
h if it is relatively expected that you're just going to pass and oh by the way Christian Kirk's not coming back anytime soon um then you just need one wide you know you just need one standout CB performance from Marlon Humphrey to take Calvin Ridley out or du bracket him with uh you know the Marcus Williams and or Gino Stone and all of a sudden like it's going to be real tough for the Jaguars to move the ball potentially so um I think the Ravens defense could be a huge Factor here but the biger
better better buy for me on this is Ravens offense um I was thinking that the team total is GNA be like 22 23 this gonna be too low I have I have this out as like yeah Ravens scor 24 27 28 31 I they got him for 27 last year I don't I know it's a road game I don't know how they slow them down I guess if we saw if we get what we saw last week and yeah it was 37 birdie but more like like you know the punt return I don't know if I want to count even if it wasn't an over time but it's still they put
up 30 it's a good offense right now they are moving the ball and I don't really like the Jags defense so Ravens team total honestly with the cracks you're seeing I think the I think the Jags can probably get some something done through the air at least especially if they're playing in a negative game State and have to air it out constantly I'm kind of fine with this over as well if it wasn't a Prime Time game yeah um I think the Ravens are the side still the Ravens like I you can get minus thre
e minus 113 right now which is wild to me um the Ravens offense to me looks like they have Late Bloomer potential you know how there's one offense that takes a really long time to finally show themselves and then that offense is new new offensive new offensive coordinator and like 10 new weapons uh and uh but they finally get there after their offensive line is healthy for like the fifth consecutive week and they have an elite quarterback and you know they're they're playing a couple of overrate
d defenses back to back to back um that's the Ravens man like that's this is a team that I think is peing at the right time at least in the AFC mix and I think the offense could uh could show you something pretty special today or on Sunday night against the Jaguars um Jaguars at home for what it's worth in these big spots have underperformed this year uh they lost to Jake Browning on Monday Night Football very memorably um they lost to the Chiefs at home uh in a game that uh should have been uh
you know a little more competitive they didn't cover they got blacked out by the Houston Texans at home um they have a couple of Home stinkers on their schedule this year so I'm not exactly oh they got they got obliterated by the ners at home I forgot about that one 343 um when they've gone up against the good teams at home home so far this year hey did you know that when you do a thumbs up that it does like a oh did you do that trick specifically yeah it took me a long time to get there okay is
that a streamyard new little streamyard wrinkle where you do a thumbs up and then you okay I'll tell you about it another time um all right the uh you don't know what I'm talking about to you n okay okay I'll tell you another time um the uh but yeah I think ultimately this is potentially a Ravens uh Flex a little offensively and the Jags are going to be in comeback mode for much of the game and this could be uh this could be ra Ravens by margin so I laid the points and uh you can get a better p
rice right now than I had played so that's that's a lovely that's that's a delightful sign um the market seems hesitant to give the Ravens credit and I understand but at the same time I think this is a mismatch for them offensively up front Lamar um through the air Lamar with his legs whatever running back they want to throw out I don't care yeah Drew no I I I put that overlay up no I know I I I I was trying to trick the camera to doing the thing but it's not doing it for me is it doing it for y
ou I think it's your webcam does it oh okay like people can't see it only you oh okay I don't know I'm not sure what we're trying to do okay it like a little a little a little like floating clicking clip clickable bubble comes up on my screen sometimes when I do a thumbs up just High balls maybe I don't don't entirely know um all right the uh I don't know I've I've I've had confidence in the uh the Jack in the Ravens at times this year and been let down I'm gonna watch this weather that this is
the other one both Florida games are supposed to look windy this might be the one that actually matters but I don't know I'm I'm kind of still thinking this total's a little low this Ravens team total is a little low healthy dose of Kon Mitchell mixed in with some Gus Edwards in this one mixed in with some design for Lamar oh my God give it to me yes it would be sweet all right man we'll we'll save a Philly uh Seattle PA for when we know who the [ __ ] Seattle's quarterback's gonna be how about
that yeah I don't know if you have like two minutes on Monday but yeah it feels like if it's G feels like it feels like it's Gino like I think he's gonna go but who knows like at this point they're not out of it like they can't be like packing it in so I think it's Gino that said who knows Philly Philly I don't have a lot of injury report and them blankin ship matters he's very important he's probably one of the best in the league man go look at his numbers like he's a it's it gets drugged down
by the fact that I think the rest of the secondary kind of sucks at times I think he he is important and he got his Bell rung pretty good in the last game so yeah kind of watching him as well um man Patriots got that's down to seven and a half um man which one Patriots is down to seven and a half uh that is that taking one away traffic uh although the last time the Patriots there was another time the Patriots were huge dogs and they got bet down aggressively and then they got like absolutely bla
nked I'm spacing on when that was but um I don't know Bailey zappy you really want to go toe-to-toe with baile I know I know what you're talking about like the Patriots took money all week and then it was just the Dolphins kicking I don't think so uh Cowboy the Cowboys are in early October that was like 35 to nothing 35 to three yeah don't remember I don't know what you're saying all right hey you guys hit the thumbs up if you're in the YouTube chat there's a bunch of you there's over a hundred
right now should I should have 100 likes that's all I want for Christmas if you celebrate Hanukkah I think we're still doing that probably in like day six or day 13 of the Advent calendars my son has been getting a new Lego man every day all right yeah no it's a huge fight every morning brush your teeth first take the dogs out first we don't do Legos first just kills him not being able to grab that Lego guy every day um appreciate it enjoy the start of the holidays enjoy the extra Saturday games
um and yes Drew Lamar and who's Drew Lamar sounds Lamar Lamar has a path I said it in the newslet today I think he has a path I agree with that um has to win next week has this week damn well yeah yeah he has to show out this week and then he needs to uhit beat Brock secet pod play um I mean there's a lot of them you want to just go Baltimore bet just betting against the Jag D 23 and half yeah anything 23 and a half or better I mean the weather could [ __ ] us there would you rather play an und
er oh yeah I forgot that I said I'm keeping an eye on that weather um um who's your least least favorite team to score this week maybe what was the what was the Pittsburgh Indie team total under we were kicking around or was it Carolina Atlanta maybe oh we talked about uh Atlanta under Atlanta 19 and a half under 19 and a half for Atlanta sure yeah nasty one let get nasty Atlanta not getting to 20 let's [ __ ] go I was doing the pose from the end of uh Breakfast Club there yeah obviously have I
ever told you guys I moved set pieces for the halftime show at the Titans Ram Super Bowl in Atlanta yeah I was literally on the field at Geor
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Andy is contractually obligated to use the phrase "ball in his hands" any time Taysom Hill is brought up.