Okay, today I have the pleasure of speaking
with Patrick Collison, CEO of Stripe. Patrick, first question: you have an excellent compilation
of advice on your blog for people 10 to 20, and you say there that once you turn 35 you'll
write some for people in their twenties. What advice do you have for us now, for the people
in our twenties now? Wait, when's it coming? I haven't really thought about that. The one I've
been wondering at recently is I said for that advice for people in their tee
ns, they should
go to San Francisco. And I wonder for people in their twenties if they shouldn't go to San
Francisco. And I'm being glib. And I think there's a significant set of people who should in fact
go to San Francisco. But the thing that I wonder about is for there is a set of career paths that
I think some set of people ought to pursue and would derive most fulfillment from pursuing. And
that are really valuable for the world if pursued, that require accumulating a lot of expertise
and
really studying a domain in tremendous depth. I think San Francisco valorizes, and look, this is
also San Francisco's great virtue, San Francisco valorizes a kind of striking out on your own
iconoclastically dismissing the sort of received wisdom and the founding archetypes and lore of the
Steve Jobs and the Bill Gates and all the rest. And I'm way less successful than
those people, but to some extent, Stripe in as much as it fits a pattern,
is an instance of that pattern. And look, th
at's great, and I'm happy that phenomenon
exists in the world, but I don't think that... The world needs lots of other things, right?
And I don't think San Francisco particularly, I'm again using San Francisco as a kind of
metonym for cultural orientation, but I think that San Francisco doesn't really encourage the
pursuit of really deep technical depth. And we're recording this in South San Francisco. And South
San Francisco is most noteworthy in the corporate world for of course being the
headquarters of
Genentech. And Genentech was co-founded by Bob Swanson and Herb Boyer. And they produced cheap
insulin for the first time with recombinant DNA. Herb Boyer couldn't have done that at age 23.
Herb Boyer first had to accumulate all of the knowledge and the skills required to be able
invent that over the course of a multi-decade career. And then, I don't know what age he
was when he finally went and invented it, but he was not in his twenties. And I feel San
Francisco perhaps
doesn't culturally encourage one to become Herb Boyer. Or yesterday
at the time of recording this podcast, Patrick Hsu, one of the co-founders of Arc,
which maybe we'll speak about later in the show, this is a biomedical research organization we
started a few years ago, he announced this new phenomenon of bridge editing, which is
a new recombinase where you can insert DNA into a genome. And it's pretty early, but
it might turn out to be quite consequential. And in order to do something like
that,
you have to study for a long time and just acquire a lot of basic and not so basic
technical skills. So anyway, the thing, and I don't quite know how to synthesize it
yet, but as I think about advice for people in their twenties... Look, I'm not going to
normatively pretend or presume to know in which direction one should go in one's life.
And obviously there are successful examples of basically every strategy. And I'm really glad
that you're doing what you're doing at what age? 23.
23. So that's- But a podcast isn't... I'm not
imagining recombinant DNA or anything. I think my advice might be maybe you should do
something like what I did or I'm trying to do. But there are other paths as well. And I think a
lot of really important invention in the world. And a lot of the things that I'm most happy
are happening actually require a very different trajectory. And I think there are counterfactual
versions of my life where I pursued that path and... Well, who knows how well
it would've
worked. Anyway, sorry, last point in this, and San Francisco is just very status oriented,
I feel in this way. Maybe status oriented is... Everything is status oriented, so that's kind of
tautological. But maybe really what I'm saying is I feel San Francisco, the entrepreneurs are held
in excessively high regard, in my view. And look, I guess I like entrepreneurs and I think
entrepreneurs as an aggregate group in the world, all the companies built on Stripe I
think are great,
but there's just a strange version of it in San Francisco that
I think should not be people's only fixation. Yeah, what I like about this and what I
like about you is just you have this sort of a sense of contrarianism of the thing people
are expecting to hear from you in a given moment, you just really want to just tell them
the opposite of. I don't even know, I feel like when EA was a little
bit more popular, you're like, "Here's the problems. Here's why progress study
is important." And
when it was done in its depth, like, "Hey guys, pay attention." But
on this particular piece of advice- Michael Nielsen says that every field in science
has way too many adherence or way too few, but the market is almost never in sort of the
right equilibrium. And I think something like that might be... I think the reflexive... In a
contrarian way, I'll say that I think reflexive contrarianism for the sake of it is also tired.
And if you are just contrarian to the prevailing mood, then you
're just following the prevailing
mood, but with a sign bit inversion or something, so I don't endorse that either. But I think the
herd is a really powerful phenomenon. Actually, one of the learnings of my adult life
has been that, everyone knows and says, or frequently hears, that you should be
very wary of following the prevailing tides and moods and winds and everything,
but it's freaking hard to do in practice. So what practically does that look like to hone
your craft in any of these
disciplines that take a long time? You've spoken and tweeted about
some of the problems with modern universities. Is that still the def facto path? Do you want to
be the great biologist at Arc hires or something? Well, in many domains, I don't know. So in
hardware, which is not a small domain, most things in the world involve stuff and things, and
I just have no facility with or experience with doing things in hardware. And so if you wanted
to become a super skilled practitioner there, wha
t's the best career path? I don't know.
Maybe it's to drop out and join SpaceX or something. I'm not necessarily endorsing
just pursuing the most establishment and credential-oriented path. I think people should
try to find the gradient of maximal learning in whatever it is they care most about. And yet,
the question then is what that is. For biology, look, not that I'm a biologist, but it is very
clear that in order to do really good work, there are a lot of bench skills and... Well,
ther
e are bench skills one has to acquire, and then there just is a lot of actual
specific knowledge, where the body... Well, any kind of life, it wasn't designed
with neat fundamental principles the way that maybe physics was. A lot of it is obviously
evolved and contingent and messy and complicated and all the rest. And so there is a lot of
just specific factual stuff to learn. And I think for those two reasons, I think there
are very few successful pure autodidacts in biology where you, at s
ome point in
virtually every case that I'm aware of, have to have had direct experience in and with a
top lab where you're seeing how people actually do it in practice. And actually maybe this also
ties back to some of what we were discussing previously to your question about the founders
and what they learn from each other and so on, I think there's an interesting book Apprentice to
Genius that follows... I can't remember if it's three or four. It's three generations of
scientists. So som
eone who mentored somebody else, who in turn mentored another scientist.
And they were all extremely successful. And the book is kind of description of what they
all did, but also this kind of reflection on: what is it that was transferred? And
for example, one thing it describes is: well, one of the most important and subtle
questions in science is problem selection. Just how do you choose what to work on?
No one tells you what to do. And you do have to answer this question multiple
times
. With a company in some sense, you just have to decide once. And then
it's kind of, well, maybe it's an iterative process from there. Whereas in science, you're
frequently pursuing completely new problems. And of course you need to choose something that's
sufficiently important and hard that it would be important if you succeeded, but also that it's
not so intractable that you can't actually make any progress. And so the book describes how
this is part of what the mentees described that th
ey learned from their mentors. Another
thing they talk about is just learning about high standards and what high standards actually
are. And when I talk to people in other domains, this is so frequently the thing that I hear from
them, that when they worked with X person or Y organization or in Z environment or whatever, that
they learned what great actually is. And that just permanently changed their sense for what their
own standard for their work ought to be. And so maybe one version of
what people in the twenties
should do is get some ideas to domains you're interested in or care about, but then figure
out: where can you learn the highest standards? Where are the highest standards embodied and
where can you go and experience that firsthand? Before we get back to Stripe and
Arc Institute and everything, I want to just touch on the Parker study stuff for
a second. So there's a view that says, "Listen, if we improve the NIH 10% or whatever percent, are
we really making a de
nt in the fact that ideas are getting harder to find over time? And how much of
a difference do institutions make anyways, just if it's just about a number of researchers and
how many people in your society you can put into research?" It's not like Singapore can have a much
more effective scientific institution that lets it compete with America and science or something
like that. What's wrong with that intuition? Noah Smith and others have talked about...
I can't remember the term he used,
something like money-ism. He had a funny
phrase. But sort of this idea that we assume there is some kind of constant
elasticity between investment in some particular outcome like building a semiconductor
factory in Arizona or a new bridge or whatever, and the outcome of the factory or the bridge.
And one, the conversion rate between those inputs and the output is not a cosmological constant.
Maybe any of these things could be done for a half or a tenth or whatever of the cost. But
two, the
re are even deeper questions as to: is it possible at all or what else would have
to change for it to be possible? And what are the other constraints? By just talking about
these things and funding and dollar terms, you're making the implicit assumption that the
only relevant constraint is the financial one, where in practice maybe it's permits or
it's labor shortages or it's other things. Anyway, in the context of the NIH and science and
R&D, I'm really skeptical of this same approach bein
g brought to bear where we can just talk
about the amount that we're spending on R&D, and think that that's implicitly a useful
measure of the output. And to a fairly close approximation, there were around 1% as many
practicing professional scientists in the US pre-World War II as post-World War II, or
say even 1950. And the other epiphenomena and papers or patents and so forth, it tends
to follow pretty similar ratios. And we got a lot of pretty good stuff in the first half
of the century
. And despite increasing the amount that we spend by between two and maybe
slightly more than two orders of magnitude, not quite three, it's not clear to me that
there is a direct linear relationship. And so when analyzing the NIH or how
we should pursue any of this stuff, I'm inclined to try to get way more, I guess,
concrete and tactile. And try to think, "Okay, what would success here look like at... Well, what
is happening today at the micro scale and what are the actual problems? And t
hen what could success
look like at the micro scale? And then what might it look like to scale that up?" And just to
give one kind of pointed example of that, we ran a survey of the FAST Grants grant recipients
after FAST Grants, asking about their normal work and not about anything to do with FAST grants
itself. And we asked them if they had flexible funding. That is to say if they could spend their
research dollars, their current research dollars, however they wanted. So not if they had m
ore
research dollars, just if they could direct their current dollars however they wanted, how much
their associated research program would change. And we gave them three options: not much,
a little and a lot. 79% said a lot. So four out of five said that their research agenda
would change a lot if this constraint was removed. And so should the NIH funding
level be X or 1.1X or 1.2X or whatever, that seems to me like a bad way to analyze this
question as compared to, for example, perhaps:
how bound and constrained should an NIH grantee
be in choosing their research agenda? Maybe, if their judgment was way better than
that of the committee's. Not saying it is, but maybe it is. Who knows? And maybe there's
a 5X improvement to be generated just by making that one switch. So yeah, I'm very skeptical
of these financially oriented frameworks. Maybe the financial is not the right word
for it, but just trying to map inputs to outputs is the framing which you're using
to compare the
pre-World War II inputs to what's happening now. And if it was particular
to the scientific institutions, you'd expect, for example, that things that are disconnected
from the NIH specific structures. Obviously you've talked a lot about already it is getting
harder to find paper. And sector through sector, it's not like NIH is running Moore's
Law progress, but even there, you see you need exponentially more researchers
to keep up the same level of progress. So it does seem important to hav
e these level
effects that are one time in the case of something COVID where, yeah, we need that level effect
right now. But if we're framing it in terms of hundreds of years from now, this is going
to be the thing that increases growth rates, which is the sort of framing that is also supplied
when talking about the progress of these things. Does that make sense in that context, when all
these sectors are seeing these slowdowns which seem consistent with just like, yeah, this is
how the ec
onomy and science progresses over time? I don't know is the short answer. I think
it's really puzzling. I think the constancy of US GDP growth is, I think, just one of the
weirdest things. And I don't know if we've got explanation for it. But also I don't think
that it's... Or sorry, an obvious thing to do would be to shrug and say, "Okay, well
just, it's overdetermined or something, and that's just how countries work." But
you can look at other countries where it's obviously manifestly not
the case. And so what
is it that's weird and special about the US? The thing that I wonder about in a lot of these
cases is you could get many of the observed system phenomenon characteristics if we weren't actually
adding productive capacity. That's a simple way to explain a lot of it. And that if you're just
adding exponentially more unproductive capacity, then on a stylized level, a lot of
this stuff would just fall out of it. Now, I'm not saying that we're necessarily doing
that, but
it could be that maybe we're making them... Well, there's lots of ways where
that could be what's effectively going on, even if it's not the case that the marginal people
or things or organizations themselves are bad, it's just somehow how the components interact. But
the fact that you could get these exponentially diminishing returns through the addition
of evermore nonproductive capacity makes me not persuaded that the low hanging case is
necessarily true, and give some weight to the pros
pect that yeah, it is fundamentally structural
or cultural or organizational. And just to give a micro-example there, and it's a very basic and
an obvious one, but I think it's interesting to compare the SpaceX R&D budget to the NASA R&D
budget, and to actually look at those two time series together. And maybe we're just returning
to the financial point again, but it seems pretty clear that the trajectory of NASA's efficacy has
not fully followed the trajectory of its inputs. Yeah. Although
the point about the marginal
inputs we've put into science have not been as effectively used or as high quality as what
was before, like the 1X is a much higher quality 1X than a 100X. It's not clear what you do to
fix that. If it's just a case that there's a limited of John von Neumanns in your society
that are part of the pre-World War II 1X, it's not like we can just put 100X more John
von Neumanns type physicists into science. If the binding constraint is the
number of John von Neuman
ns, then yes, that's bad news I guess. There's
not a lot we can do on the margin. But I'm not sure that it is. I guess I keep
going back to the cultural and the sociological point where, so Gerdie and Carl Corey, they
ran a lab at the University of Washington, St. Louis. And six of their students, if
I recall correctly, went on to win Nobel Prizes. And they had a well-known lab and they
got good students, but they weren't the most prestigious lab in the world. It's not like
they got to che
rry pick every year the single most promising person. And so something was
going on there. And there's a book about it, and it tries to get into this a little bit. And
I don't know that I can figure out quite what it was. And there was also some good fortune where
they got into molecular biology at a good time. But I think there were these kind
of hopeful data points where, again, they were obviously extremely brilliant
people, but I think that the thing that distinguished them and their st
udents was not
that they were these seven sigma martians, I think rather that they found organizational
structures and cultural practices that really worked. I think those are at least in principle,
more replicable. Now, you might still say, "Okay, fine in theory, but how do you actually do
that?" And I think that's the big open question. Even though there are lots of scientists and lots
of universities, there's a lot of homogeneity today in how science and in particular how
biomedical sci
ence is pursued and basic research in an academic context before there's any
commercialization or prospect of it in sight. And I don't know that the model is necessarily a bad
one. Certainly we're not particularly claiming that it's a bad one, but sort of the construct of
universities, labs, PI, a principal investigator running the lab. That person applies for grants,
primarily to the NIH, maybe supplemented by other sources. And grants reviewed by committees
with study sections as they cal
l with pretty rigid scoring criteria and so on. That's the
structure. And it just seems suboptimal to me. Homogeneity is bad in basically any ecosystem,
especially ecosystems where you're seeking tail outcomes. And we thought that for a variety of
reasons, well, from first principles that other models should be possible. And we had specific
ideas as to how one particular model might be a good idea and complimentary to status quo. In
very short terms what's different about Arc is, one, scien
tists are funded themselves
to pursue whatever they want. So it's curiosity-driven research, whereas NIH
grants are given for projects. And second, we build a lot of in-house infrastructure so
that scientists can draw upon other platforms and other capabilities that they don't have
to go and build and maintain themselves. Whereas again, in the standard university
academic context, scientists would virtually always have to do that in-house. And because of
the natural scale constraints on an
y given lab, that effectively circumscribes the ambition of
a possible research program. And then thirdly, we try to provide career paths for people
to remain in science if they don't want to become principal investigators, where the
university structure commingles the training purpose of academia with the execution.
Where the people who are doing the work are typically the grad students and the
postdocs, who are both themselves at least nominally on the career path of themselves
eventuall
y becoming principal investigators. And there are lots of people who, for all
sorts of different very valid reasons, love science and love the pursuit of research, but
don't want to be a manager running a lab, choosing their own research programs and dealing with all
of the overhead and typically grant applications that are concomitant with that. And so with Arc,
we have a real emphasis on hiring scientists who have finished their postdocs, finished grad
school, and just like that's what th
ey want to do in their lives. And again, isn't really a career
path for them today. And one of the things that's actually really exciting about the discovery that
we mentioned that came out yesterday, this new bridge editing technology, is that work was led by
one of these senior scientists who'd finished his postdoc. And it's not clear to me that he wanted
to go on to become a PI, but he loves science and he's an amazing researcher, clearly. And so
he's able to go and to have that career a
t Arc. And in addition, the prospect of these mobile
elements being usable in this way for this genomic insertion, whatever, that's a pretty speculative
out there thing. And had he applied to the NIH to go and pursue that... He didn't, so I don't
know what the outcome would've been. But Jennifer Doudna's work was, if I recall correctly, funded
by DARPA because her CRISPR NIH applications were rejected. And of course, Carly and Corico's NIH
applications for mRNA vaccine work were famously re
jected. So it at least seems very plausible
that it wouldn't have worked out. And so, look, all these things are random. And I can't
make any definitive themes about what would've counterfactually happened, but it seems
plausible to me that this thing announced yesterday wouldn't have happened or would've been
less likely to happen in a different environment. When we think forward 10 years or 20 years, this
specific line of research where you understand the effects of genetic architecture o
n different
traits. And also you can edit and invert, insert whatever the DNA arbitrarily.
You've followed sickle cell anemia. You've done the obvious things. What does
that lead to? What are you excited about? Well, the thing that I think is really interesting
about it is using it as a new kind of telescope. By which I mean when people hear about CRISPR,
there's an obvious excitement and a legitimate excitement around using this to cure things
directly in the body, using it as a kind of t
herapeutic. But you can also use CRISPR to try
to figure out what's going on in cells and in cell cultures in a structured way. And so, excuse
me, the body is interesting in that it has this switchboard like the DJs, I guess, at those fancy
mixing sets of 20,000 genes. And with CRISPR, you can systematically go and perturb each gene
one by one, like mashing all the keys in sequence, and try to figure out, well, what the effects
of perturbing this versus that are. And if you do that in a cel
l culture where you can subject
the cells to some stressor or some treatment or whatever, you can see differentially how different
perturbations affect different cell outcomes. Or you can just use it for synthetic data
generation more broadly, where you could perform all these perturbations and then sequence and
see what's happening in the cells and so forth. And single cell sequencing has come a long way.
Anyway, point is there's a lot you can do with all this gene editing stuff for discov
ery and for
data generation in the broadest sense. And that's really compelling because for a lot of diseases
that they're complex in the fields jargon, meaning, yes, they're complex in the colloquial
sense, but they're specifically complex in that they're not infectious. They're not just
some pathogen getting into you. And they're not monogenic, like Huntington's where it's one
specific mutation. Instead, it's some combination of environmental factors, but maybe some genetic
factors as we
ll, and it's somewhere in between. And by figuring out... And that includes
most autoimmune diseases, most cancers. ... And most cancers, to some extent
cardiovascular disease and neurodegenerative disease, the big ones we haven't yet solved. And
so then coming back to these functional genomics technologies, what's interesting I think is trying
to figure out how it is that the genetic component of those diseases happens and works and so on.
And even if that's only a small contributor, it ca
n potentially shine light on
just what the general pathway is. And so the question would be, and look, this is
speculative, none of this has actually happened, but by figuring out the genetic interactions
between genes and, say, Alzheimer's, can you figure out how Alzheimer's arises,
which we don't understand today? And then once you understand how Alzheimer's arises,
maybe you can use conventional technologies and targeting to figure out how to inhibit that
or to modulate those pathways.
And so yeah, that's what we're really excited about
from a functional genomic standpoint, and there's kind an AI angle as well
that we could talk about if you want. Well, I don't think the binding constraint
on harmful use of biotechnology or bioweapons today is pure biological capabilities.
Like if some set of incredibly capable, intelligent people wanted to cause tremendous
harm with, well presumably with pathogens, but with something biological, they wouldn't
necessarily need to invent
anything new. They would just need to apply currently known
techniques in a malevolently directed fashion. I think there are some concerns and some risks
there with respect to things that don't invent new technologies, but do make them more
accessible. And so I think the question is what would the effect on the world be
if there was a sufficiently sophisticated LLM that it could help anybody synthesize
and disperse smallpox? I don't know that the laws of physics prohibit such an LMM
existi
ng. I presume they don't. And would the world be fine if such an LLM was widely
distributed? Maybe, but maybe not. Right? So I think there is that kind of threat factor,
but my point is I don't think knowledge at the frontier of biology is the relevant margin here.
And if we take seriously that this is... I mean, we don't need crazy AI risks to motivate this.
The world is perfectly capable of originating really severe pandemics and pathogens itself, plus
all the other diseases that are not
pathogenic, so we got other problems. But whether we
care about the possible dual-use harms you just mentioned, or we just care
about the things that already exist, to ameliorate both of those, we do
need enhancement of our capabilities. There are a lot of biological problems we don't
today know how to solve. And so I think in that respect, if one were to do what you're proposing
and try to advance the defensive side of this, I don't know that what one would do would
necessarily be that di
fferent because the largest fundamental capabilities
that we would presumably need to have that we don't today have. And by
trying to solve current human diseases, I think you're probably also pursuing
something pretty close to the best steps to solve the potential diseases that
malicious actors could cause in the future. Yeah, that makes sense. I mean,
zooming out from biorisk in particular, just how are you thinking about AI these days? Well, I think everyone has to be sort of
high-perpl
exity in the sense that... I mean, the verdict that one might've given at the
beginning, we're recording this here pretty close to the beginning of 2024, the verdict one
might've given at the beginning of '23, '22, '21, back, say, the last eight years, those would
all I think have looked pretty different. I mean, maybe Guern might have scored the
best from 2019 or something onwards, but broadly speaking, it's been pretty
difficult, I think, to forecast. And so I think the basic position to
a first order
has to be one of some degree of humility. I think as your blog post identifies, the big question
right now is to what degree scaling laws hold, and I guess if they hold, then what
exactly is it that we're... Well, asymptoting is maybe a presumptuous word, maybe
it's not an asymptote, but what is it that we're approaching? We don't necessarily know the
shape of that thing, whatever it is. And yeah, I think it's a lot of... Yeah, I think how
one should feel needs to be or ought
to be very sensitive to the exact parameters of those
curves. And I just don't think anyone knows the true value of those parameters actually are. So
it's clearly going to be important, is already important today, and it has a pretty central
bearing on both Stripe and Arc, and we'll see. Yeah, I wonder if the meta lesson here, and I
totally agree with that sort of general sentiment, but I wonder if the meta lesson that we got
from COVID, for example, and with things like Fast Grants was yo
u obviously can't predict these
things in advance, but the most important thing, even in addition to these specific sort of
countermeasures we're trying to come up in advance is when the thing is happening, having competent
individuals who can synthesize and organize information, and also having these new initiatives
and institutions to get the right thing done. Yes, the adaptability premium is probably
going to go way up over the next decade. Yeah. And with that in mind, and I know you
ha
ve already a couple of day jobs, but yeah, I feel like something like Fast Grants, when the
time comes down to it, I don't know, it should be like, "Uh." You'd be one of the top people you
could think of in terms of having expertise and respect in a wide range of domains and competency
as a leader. I don't know, just keep it in the back of your mind or maybe in the middle of your
mind, given how far we are into the transition. Well, Fast Grants was three beloved squirrels
in a trench coat,
or I guess, well, I was one of the squirrels, so I don't know, I'm so full
of it, but it was also with Tyler Cowen who's an amazing person, a great friend, and then
my wife who's also one of Arc's co-founders. And so Fast Grants was not this giant, impressive
edifice that would qualify me for anything at all. But it doesn't have to be giant,
right, to have that kind of big impact? Yeah, I guess as an objective matter, that's true.
I mean, look, John and I try to be very self-aware of the li
mits of our expertise, which are very
proximate to us. And I'm sure if something like that was necessary, they'd be... Look at Operation
Warp Speed. They chose a super effective domain expert, Moncef Slaoui, to run that, and it was
just monstrously successful, truly remarkable. And I don't know who the Moncef Slaoui of, I guess it
would depend whatever the problem in question is, but I think my recommendation would be figure out
who Moncef is and go hire Moncef. And I think it's extremely u
nlikely... I think anybody who deemed
me the Moncef of that thing is probably mistaken. I think you're being too humble,
but just staying on Fast Grants, now we have the retrospective of how effective
the Fast Grants recipients were compared to the other grants that were given out by, let's
say, the NIH or NSF. To your knowledge, what has been the reaction of these
institutions to the discrepancy between the speed and effectiveness of Fast Grants?
Have they analyzed their protocols and wha
t happened during COVID? Is there any sort
of retrospective there on their part? Not to my knowledge, but I don't want
that to sound like an indictment. Maybe they've done a lot of reflection
and I just don't don't know about it. I don't think I would know about it,
even if it had happened. So I don't know. I mean, look, most... Well, I don't know anything
about the response at CDC or FDA or NIH or NSF or any of the relevant organizations or
their international equivalents. And so none of
what I'm saying should be taken as
specifically, not only not critical of them, but not even a comment to them. I just don't know
what they did. But in general, organizations are not awesome at self-reflection. I think I assume
as a default prior that some of the dynamics we discussed at the beginning of this are rooted
there, where none of the people who started those organizations are there today. And so what
exactly are the incentives of those leaders and I haven't... Yeah. It's not clea
r to me who would
have the incentive to really take stock in a fully objective and self-critical way to figure
out what was done well and what was done poorly. I promise not to be too myopic about AI, but
one more question. Long term, we can't forecast, maybe even medium term we can't, but near term, it
looks like we might have things that look like AI agents and they might need to trade. What does the
financial infrastructure for AI agents look like? Yeah, I think that's a really interesti
ng
question. And I think automated or autonomous transactions, I mean, they already
exist to some extent today. I mean, lots of services have usage-based billing,
and a lot of the expenses being incurred are autonomously incurred. No human is pushing a
button when Stripe does most of what it does with cloud computing and incurs some costs
with some cloud service. It's in some kind of extremely primitive way happening today, and
I assume it will follow some gradient where some of those deci
sions are either directly
or indirectly being made by an LLM or some LLM equivalent or whatever. And I think
there'll be some almost unnoticeable smooth continuum up to very considerable degrees
of autonomy. But it's not that we're going to wake up some month and be like, "Oh my
God, suddenly the bots have been unleashed." And I think there'll be interesting
questions there around, I mean, this will now sound very parochial and maybe
getting excessively tactical or something, but I think t
here'd be very interesting questions
around the legality of those in terms of are these treated as the responsibility of the owner or
is there any degree of independence granted? How does liability work? Which rails are best
suited? What kind of transaction velocities are we talking about here? Because if
it's a billion transactions a second, then the properties of that system should look
very different to is it one giant clearing transaction every day? And again, if we just
use the analog
y of the usage-based services, those tend to incur liabilities in tiny
increments, but then to settle on a monthly basis when you pay your bill, so maybe these
agent transactions will have that character. So I think there were, excuse me, a
lot of practical applied questions, but I think what you're saying around these
autonomous transactions conceivably being an important dimension is very true and real and is
one of the interesting ways in which the economy might change and expand over th
e next decade. And
I think it's possible that crypto plays some role here where we take a KYC and AML very seriously
for humans, and we want to know the human that is associated with some particular financial
activity. Obviously that's a murkier question in the context of some AI agent. And if we, in
some blurry sense, look at crypto as the part of financial services that is defacto exempt from
AML by design, then yeah, maybe that plays a role. How long before Stripe was founded do you thin
k
a product like Stripe could have been invented? That's a good question. Well, depending on
what exactly you define Stripe as being, I think conceivably decades earlier in that, I
mean, on some level, PayPal is a kind of Stripe, and there were many payments companies
before PayPal and you could go all the way back to cash registers or something. So
it depends on these definitional questions. I mean, the particular secular tailwinds that we
benefited from around the rise of app stores and
the on-demand economy and maybe the startup
boom post-YC, and after the financial crisis, those particular tailwinds were idiosyncratic
and specific to Stripe, and I guess the GFC was '08-'09, and Stripe was founded in 2010. And
so as much as you define those as being core, then not that much earlier, but mostly my
story of Stripe is one of market inefficiency, and I do wonder why much of
this didn't happen sooner. Yeah. I always find it really
interesting when there's these cases where it
wasn't even the case that,
"Well, it could have been started sooner, but there was nobody in the market."
There were many people in the market and they weren't just random people. They
were technology companies headquartered in San Francisco who were in the market. Do you have
some explanation for why it didn't occur to them? I'm hesitant to generalize too much because, well, I only have maybe N=1 experience and so I think
it's dangerous to extrapolate from that. Maybe N=2 now with Arc as
a very different kind of
organization, but an organization nonetheless. Or if you include all the features of
Stripe, N equals like 10, 20-something. Yeah, okay. So yes, depending on your definition,
maybe there's some kind of samples out there. I guess my general view is most
products and most businesses, things can just be done much better. And I
think moats are typically kind of overrated. And I mean payment's a great example
of a domain where on a logical basis, you would say that ther
e are so many sources of
defensibility where there's the network effect of the account holders, and there's the data network
effect/economy of scale for fraud and so forth, and there are regulatory moats and barriers, and,
and, and. And yet, not only does Stripe exist, but there are lots of other... I mean, there's
a whole FinTech ecosystem today. Right? So yeah, I think it gets down to deep questions
of what's the binding constraint on just the number of effective organizations that exist
in
the world, and for any given sector, why is it that number of companies rather than twice that
number of companies and so on? I think it's about motivation and ideas and people's willingness and
determination to organize talent and so forth, but these kinds of more sociocultural explanations
rather than... I mean, Hamilton Helmer is probably the leading scholar of some of the sources of
defensibility for businesses. He has this niche, but very well-known in the niche, book called
7 Powe
rs, and it tends to disaggregate all the various sources of market power in this respect.
And I think that is true and important in so far as it goes, but nonetheless, it's kind of strange
to me that nobody had done Stripe before Stripe. When you think about the fact that moats are
overrated and just doing the thing is underrated, what is Stripe's mode in that context? Does that
make you think differently about Stripe's moat? Yes, one. And I guess I do think that one
can have organizational
and cultural moats, and maybe this contradicts what I was just
saying, or maybe it's consistent with it in the sense that it's a kind of cultural explanation,
and I think that in as much as we have a moat, it's because we have a very good understanding of
our domain and a set of people who actually care about solving the problems and who are, I don't
know, continually paranoid at the prospect that we might be forgetting something important instead of
trying to figure out what the important
thing that could supplant Stripe's approaches is and making
sure that we build those first and so forth. I think organizations that are...
I mean, there's... You're familiar with Conquest's Laws and there's
Conquest's Third Law, I guess, which is that one should model organizations as
if they're run by a cabal of their enemies. And obviously or presumably it's tongue in cheek,
but it's interesting to try to think about, "Well, what is the kernel of truth
in that and why would it be there?
" And I think what's going on is that I think most
organizations when they start out are actually trying to achieve their stated goals, like
somebody started the organization for a reason, and probably it was for the stated reason. But
then over time, that person and that set of people who initially populate the organization depart
and some set of new people come to take their place and there's multiple versions of that.
There's generational turnover on a continuous basis. But say for the f
ifth generation, why are
they there? And to what degree do their particular specific local incentives align with the nominal
originally stated goals of the organization? And I think there can be a lot of misalignment
there where they're following a local path, and conceivably even the leader of the organization,
not even through any fault of their own per se, necessarily, just they're human and they
have their own incentives. And again, the original kind constitutional incentives of
the or
ganization might be quite different. And so I think this phenomenon is a fact of life,
and I think these kinds of explanations for me are much more explanatory in trying to figure out
why some of these things either happen or don't. And to your question, in as much as Stripe has
a moat, what is it? I think it's that... I mean, others can judge to what degree it's actually
manifested and rooted in practice. I think it is, but I'm a biased observer, but I think it
would be that people at Stri
pe really care about solving the problems that
we say we are trying to solve. Yeah, the point about the misalignment over
generations or over time is interesting. And actually, do you have examples of institutions
which have, for decades or hundreds of years, managed to keep their original, not only mission
statement, but the organizational competence? Because you think of tech companies,
even the oldest tech companies have not been around that long, and they're some
of the biggest tech co
mpanies in the world, and the median age of the corporation is
famously low. What is a good example here? I think some of the explanations around the
effects of shareholder capitalism and sort of the idea that shareholder capitalism as a
mechanism does in fact have some consequence with respect to the incentives of organizations
and their long-term fates. I think those theories have some credibility, and I think it is very
plausible that shareholder capitalism even attenuates the durations
of these organizations.
I'm not saying that's definitively true, but I find it credible, the idea that it is.
It's not clear to me that that's necessarily bad, even if it is true in that, are we on the
side of the humans or of the aggregate innovation in the world, or on the
side of the corporation's qua legal entities? And yeah, it's not clear to
me, the answer. It should be the first. At the same time, or maybe in fact
consistent with that, if you look at, say, Europe or some other place
s like in
Denmark, there's, for reasons related to the tax code there, a lot of organizations are
either controlled or very substantially held by nonprofit foundations. And so Novo Nordisk,
for example, the GLP company, but Maersk, the shipping company, I believe also Lego, a
lot of these corporations are controlled by, and again, usually have a lot of their stock held
by foundations. That has the secondary effect in many cases where they actually do embed, in a
legally binding constitutio
n, their mission. And so I'm not an expert on Nova Nordisk,
but I happened to get a book about it over Thanksgiving. And actually, there's also a
book on the Danish industrial foundations, but it's enshrined in their constitution
that they have to make insulin broadly available really cheaply or at least
cheaply in Scandinavian countries, and then I think they're allowed to charge market
prices elsewhere. And I think that... And then the rest of their profits, they have to...
They're again
, legally obligated to reinvest in R&D. Is that somehow causal in the fact that
they then invented one of the most remarkable pharmacological discoveries of the last 20 years
in these GLP-1 agonists? I mean, plausibly. And so yeah, I think these questions around why
it is that the median age of organizations and corporations is what it is are definitely
interesting, and I suspect it's a somewhat contingent aspect of how we've chosen to
organize large corporations in the US today. The thing
you were mentioning about this firm seems very similar to the
export-led growth in Asian- Totally, 100%. Yeah, yeah.
Right? Yeah, yep. You have tariffs. This one company, you're
tasked with making the cars, but you better make the cars good. You have no competition,
but you had to invent the best car in the world. Yes, yes, yes. And I think, I mean, we are all fans of Smith and Ricardo and all
these characters, and even they, I think, are sort of less dogmatically attached to free
trade tha
n perhaps people today interpret them as being. But I think people like Friedrich
List and those other, not quite contemporaries, but quasi-contemporaries are maybe
on a relative basis underrated. And I do think, I mean in as much as you believe
the kind of sociological cultural skill, whatever, even vague alignment, not in the AI sense,
but just in the more interpersonal sense, in as much as you think these
are important and explanatory, then yeah, I think you end up thinking
about some o
f the things you just raised. That's really interesting to hear you say that
because if you think about Stripe's mission, it's to facilitate global trade, to make sure
that some firm from India can compete with any firm in Nigeria, whatever. So the room for you
to have this sort of learning curve where you're less efficient than the global competition
should be less if Stripe exists, right? Yes, yep.
Isn't Stripe the anti-List company? Well, it depends which version of List. And to
be clear
, I'm not specifically endorsing these tariffs and trade barriers. I think the history
associated with them is checkered at best. Sure. Look, I think it's possible that if you have
a specific sector where you have clear goals and a credible path to actually achieving
some substantial degree of success there, and, and, and probably some
more conjoined propositions, then maybe some degree of activist
trade policy might be the beneficial thing to do. I don't think that describes most
sectors
in most countries at most times. Yeah. Right. Huh, that's so interesting. I think
there's an interesting thread here in how it relates to Stripe Climate in that you're,
I don't know, subsidizing these learning curves that these East Asian countries did
for their own internal companies. I mean, you haven't picked out a specific
company that's going to necessarily be the key of carbon sequestration.
But yeah, how do you think about this? Well, maybe a way to unify the two points, and
I'll sp
eak about Stripe Climate in a second, is that I think I guess it's Say's
Law about demand creating supply, and in as much as Stripe aggregates more
and more global demand, I guess part of the, I don't know... It seems too self-aggrandizing to
call it the theory of Stripe, but some vague hunch in Stripe is that that aggregation of demand can
have important expansionary effects with respect to the ensuing supply. And yes, Stripe Climate is
some version of this hypothesis applied on a much sma
ller scale than Stripe itself, but still
real and well, we'll see, maybe important. And the basic idea, just for folks who aren't
familiar, which I assume is most of your audience, so we observed in 2018, I guess, that everyone
seems to agree that carbon removal will be very important, and even if we decarbonize the economy
on the kind of timescale that optimistic people on the most optimistic timeframes, there'll still be
an accumulated stock of carbon that is a problem. It sounded pretty
weird. There were virtually no
carbon-removal companies in the world in 2018. Maybe there were two or three or something. No
companies had ever purchased from a carbon-removal company. These were really sort of science
projects. And so we thought, "Well, somebody's got to start, and it might be valuable to not only
transfer some dollars, but to kind of confer some credibility on this sector." Not that Stripe is
the world's most credible company, but it's better than nothing. And so we start
ed contracting
some of these carbon-removal companies. That went pretty well and they seemed appreciative
of us. And so we thought somewhat more about this. And we then, in 2021, formed Frontier, which is
an AMC, an advanced market commitment. So inspired by the first AMC, which was a pre-commitment to
purchase vaccines for developing world countries for diseases that... I mean, well, either were
kind of market failures where pharma companies hadn't pursued the vaccines or were just like th
e
profits weren't sufficient to pay for the program. So we decided to this for carbon removal.
We raised $1 billion. Stripe was the first investor. We're not actually investing, we're just
buying, so they're the first company to commit, but then were joined by Shopify and Alphabet
and Meta and JP Morgan and a bunch of other companies. And now there's a fairly active sector
of carbon removal companies. I think Frontier has contracted with between 40 and 50 companies, the
overwhelming majori
ty of which didn't exist when we started out with this. And actually, we
ran an anonymous survey back the end of last year and we asked them to what degree was the
existence of Frontier somewhat causal in their starting the company in the first place. Again,
this is an anonymous survey, and I think it was 74% of the companies said that Frontier played
a causal role in their starting the company. So yeah, I think these inducement
effects can be pretty significant. Yeah, that's huge. Well, wh
at
are other ideas you've come across where an AMC would be an effective
instrument of moving forward the tech? That's a good question. We've actually
been having some of that discussion internally. It's not that we plan on doing
it ourselves necessarily, but just wondering, are there people we should share our technology
with, not that it's even technology per se, but share our experience with or
something and try to help along? I mean, I think there's still a lot of
stuff in the biomedi
cal field, and I mean, patents are pretty useful insofar as they
go, but there's a lot of innovation that seems like it would be socially beneficial that
patents don't provide a way to cover the cost of. Patents don't provide a way to cover the cost of,
and so there was some excitement a few years ago about mannose, which it's a sugar. And there
was one paper or maybe a few papers, I can't remember that suggests that maybe tumors will
selectively take up mannose rather than glucose, but the
y can't actually metabolize it properly
until they just die. And so maybe this could be an effective onco treatment of some sort. But
mannose is a generic sugar, it's been understood for more than a century and you couldn't patent
it, importantly. And so it's not clear who has the incentive to even fund the work to test whether
or not this would actually work in practice. And this is not an endorsement of mannose,
but just there are things of this shape where there's something where you can
clearly see,
wow, that might be very beneficial, but it's not totally clear how the economic structure of
the market can make it possible. So I think there are still a lot of those across the biomedical
landscape. Look, there are still a lot of vaccines that could in principle exist that don't, Lyme
disease, there's one vaccine that was withdrawn from the market over some safety concerns that I
think were misplaced, but it's still no vaccine. It's not even that well understood. Right?
Peo
ple who have chronic Lyme disease, we don't know if it's legit or not. Exactly. Yes, yes, yes. But it's
a good question. Maybe some of your listeners will have ideas for
fields for we sorely need an AMC. Yeah. I want to go back to Stripe for a second. So
you're famously appreciative of craft and beauty, but also you appreciate the power of
scale and growth. Is there a type... And speed. Oh, interesting. Okay. Yeah. But is there a type
of craft that is just not amenable to speed, growth, sca
le? If you think like a Japanese chef,
he's learning to cook rice for a decade and then he can move on to the sushi or something, is
that just not competitive in the modern world? Craft, scale and speed, I don't know they're
strictly necessarily intentioned in every case, but they're definitely frequently intentioned.
So just yes, I think is one short answer to that. At the same time, a lot of the most
successful companies are those that I think are distinguished by the extent to which
the
y exhibit appreciation for and skill in realizing craft and beauty. And so LVMH is
one of the largest companies in the world, and that's literally their business. I think
Tesla is pretty good at this. They're good at many things, but including this, obviously
there's Apple. TSMC, it's not the Japanese sushi chef you mentioned, but it is the TSMC
chip sushi chef in Taiwan. And so much, again, tacit knowledge and difficult to transfer skills.
So I think it might be the case that craft and the
pursuit of it is as important as it's ever
been. And certainly as Stripe has gotten larger, I think we ourselves have come to greater
conviction in this where I think part of what's interesting about these aesthetic qualities
is they're generally speaking unquantifiable. I don't know if they're intrinsically
unquantifiable, maybe you could train a model to do so or something. But today they're
broadly speaking unquantifiable, and yet they influence people in significant ways. People
very
demonstrably care about aesthetics and if they're a company, they care about the aesthetic
characteristics of the products that they produce. Just like on an intuitive level, people know that
that's true, but it's difficult to manage that at an organizational level where there isn't a P&L
associated with it. And if you're screwing it up, you don't see a neat time series decline.
But over the 14 years of Stripe, we have, through a not exactly trial and error, but just
by studying cases where
things worked well at Stripe and cases where things worked less well
and what customers responded well to and so on, it really seems clear to us that even in
a domain like ours where we're selling primarily to businesses, that this
is something that's truly important. And also getting back to what
we were discussing previously, you want in as much as the sociology and the
cultural explanations of defensibility are real, the best people consider themselves craftspeople
in their domain. And
they really, above almost all else, want to work with the best other people.
And so I think it may almost be true that even if from a customer facing standpoint, craft was
not valued by the market. You actually might still want to build an organization that index
is very heavily on this because you just want the best people for other reasons. And now as it
happens, I think customers do in fact value it and I think the evidence is broadly consistent
with that. But yeah, I think it's very ha
rd to assemble groups of the best people if you don't
take the practice of the work super seriously. What kind of beauty or craft or
simplicity is more important, interface or implementation? There's
famously that essay that Unix is successful because the implementation
is simple and not the interface. The interface is kind of simple, but
there's a lot of asterisks and caveats and edge cases that Unix doesn't handle for you. But Stripe does, right? And look, presumably it depends what you'r
e
building, right? For TikTok, it's probably more important that their interface is simple
and even if their implementation's a mess, that's probably okay, not saying it is, I have
no idea. Whereas for Stripe, people are on some level purchasing our architecture or purchasing
their ability to do certain things and some set of things rather than some different set
of things because of what our architecture makes easy and makes possible. Now, if by
interface you mean the visual gooey interfa
ce, then maybe we can draw some separation there
but we don't really draw that distinction. We think of the interface to Stripe as being the
architecture we're selling. No one else seems to agree with me, but I often think of Stripe as
similar to Mathematica, where we're selling a self-contained universe to model whatever it is of
interest to you and that you care about. And we're providing some primitives and some interfaces
and tools and so forth to enable your modeling, but fundamentally
we're helping you do
something in your own terms. And in that sense, I don't think the architecture and the
interface are necessarily that separable. That's a really interesting analogy.
Although, if you think of Mathematica, the entry that that's giving you to is just the
Platonic objects of math. Whereas for you guys, it's like the entry is to visa error codes,
right? The end object is not the Platonic... That's true though, in both cases... Yeah, I think
yes. So the analogy falls down
in a few respects, but look, the idea of a transaction is pretty
fundamental and is roughly as old as the quadratic equation or something, the transaction's older.
And Mathematica, especially today... Excuse me, today now to a very impressive extent, supports
all kinds of crazy arcane stuff. If you go through the more obscure packages in Mathematica, you
can definitely find things that are, I think, much less broadly employed and understood even
than visa error codes or something. But yes,
look, these are not the same. It's more
just I find it to be an interesting source of intuition. And I think what Wolfram has
done with Mathematica is pretty amazing. Yeah. Another way in which I'm curious how you
think about this, one way in which Mathematica maybe differs is if they had to make a change
to Mathematica, big deal, somebody has to learn new syntax. If you make a change, it's like
billions of dollars of transactions don't happen. Right. How does that change the way you think
about
the initial architecture and just the stakes? Yeah, that's a good question. Well, actually
first a point on just beauty with respect to architecture, then I'll answer that one. So
just as a side note, I think it's interesting that API design in general doesn't get more
study as a discipline and as a practice, I think it plays a significant role in the fate
of platforms or can. I'm not saying it's always the determinative thing, and if you get it right,
there can be compounding positi
ve benefits and the converse. And I think it's really striking that,
say, with mobile app development, which was one of the most dynamic and fast moving ecosystems of the
past 10 or 15 years, that so many of the objects in the classes, say, in iOS development, our
prefix with NS, less so now with Swift, but for much of the iPhone's history and the NS of course
refers to Next Step back from Next in the '90s. But that when you get API design and
architecture right, it can be so enduring over
literally multiple decades and even
the face of what are otherwise frenzied evolutions in everything around it. And Unix
of course, is another example of this where, yes, Unix has tons of shortcomings, but
the architecture has basically worked for now more than around half a century.
And so we're also trying to impress upon people at Stripe the importance of multi-decadal
abstractions. And I think people sometimes respond to that thinking that that's some insanely
lofty, implausibly ambiti
ous, I don't know, hyperbola. But no, I think that's actually just
what happens when you get this stuff right. And if in fact you get a right, you can just
reap these... Or really the people building on your platform can read these incredible benefits
for a very long time. To the Mathematica point, they, I know, take backwards compatibility
really seriously where you can run programs written 20 years ago unchanged in today's
Mathematica, that really raises the stakes in API design for obvio
us reasons. And we have
that same problem ourselves where when we think about introducing something new, it's not just
does this exigently address the particular need that's motivating it today, but do we think
we can stand behind this in 2044 and how do we think the world might evolve around us
such that it all remains coherent? And we certainly don't always get that right but
that's on some of what we're trying to do. I see. I think the card networks generally, Visa
and MasterCard, are p
retty a good equilibrium where it's easy to judge today with the world as
it exists in 2024 but I think you have to look at the world as it was when they started out and the
particular problems that they're solving. And I think when you compare the financial landscape
in the US or in the western world to those in other places, it's certainly not clear to me
that the US has gotten a bad hand so to speak, or is somehow stuck in any meaningful way.
So the card networks do a couple of things. O
riginally, they were designed to replace a
store credit, it was a credit card originally, not a debit card. And that was important and
availability of structured consumer credit I think is actually a pretty big deal and pretty
beneficial and especially beneficial typically for lower income people. And then with the advent of
jet travel and mass market tourism and so forth, then they helped supply traveler's checks and
various worse alternatives like carrying cash around in your bag. And the
n with the internet,
they were substantially involved in enabling online transactions, I think that the fact
that they got the architecture so right, that so many of these different use cases
were able to be addressed by their core design is just really impressive.
And the guy who designed all this, Dee Hock, I think he was a remarkable
person. And even people complain about interchange and lest I sound like a defender
of the card ecosystem, Stripe is on the... Well, it depends, you could
look at it multiple
ways, but many people would consider Stripe on the wrong side of the interchange cost equation in
the sense that we are giving away the interchange revenue to other companies. And so I don't think
I'm structurally biased in favor of interchange, and yet I will say I think it's pretty
interesting what interchange made possible where it's a distribution incentive fee where
you're paying other entities to go and do the work of recruiting these customers and convincing
them
to get a card and getting them to maintain the card and to pay it off at the end of the month
and all this stuff. So you're paying for that, just the pure distribution. There's a person
at the end of the flight telling you, "Hey, sign up for the United credit card", or
whatever, but that's what the energy... In both cases, that guy annoys me. We'll get to the counterfactuals in a second. So
there's that, there's paying for the actual credit issuance itself and then there's the customer
sup
port and all the ancillary things around the dispute handling and so forth. And then I think
it is interesting to look at the cases where for whatever contingent reason the card networks
didn't arise, so Germany is one of the classic ones. And from our vantage at least, dealing with
the online economy in Germany as compared to the US is so much worse. If Stripe could push a button
and have really broadly adopted cards in Germany, ala the US, we would push the hell out
of that button. You ca
n look at China, which on the one hand does have Alipay and WePay
or WeChat payments are really ubiquitous. And so in that sense, they're very digitally
enabled from a transactional standpoint, but those products don't tend to be
as sophisticated with consumer credit. And so yes, the transaction fees for transferring
money that you in fact already have, that's super cheap, but I think you need to look it on
a fully loaded basis where, okay, but what about the cost of actually getting the cr
edit to
make the purchase in the first place as a credit card would enable? And I think as you look at
these other counterfactuals in other places, one feels a gratitude for what it is that
Dee Hock and Visa and MasterCard and the card networks made possible. And look, I'm not
saying they're perfect or anything, but I think that I'm most interested in critiques... And
I'm not saying again that one can't make them, but just I'm most interested in critiques from
people who've really studied
the ecosystems of other countries because I think it's easy to
underestimate what we got in their invention. Yeah, maybe there's a tester's defense thing
going on here. If you had to design payments from first principles now, does it make sense that all
these things you mentioned, taking on credit risk, the chance of fraud, disputed adjudication, should
that cost 2 or 3% of each transaction that happens in the economy, what would payments look like
if you had to design that from first princ
iples? Well, we're seeing a live version of this
experiment play out for the first time in many years in a number of countries today
where central banks are becoming more active in designing national payment schemes. And so Pix in
Brazil launched in late 2020 I think, but I'm sure you've heard of UPI, the central bank... UPI was
the instigator here where it's the central bank payment system in India and it was tied up with
Aadhaar and their national identity system and so on. But that inspi
red a lot of central bankers
in other countries to go and build their own UPIs. And so yeah, Pix in Brazil launched in 2020 and
now a significant majority of all Brazilian adults are weekly active users of Pix. Again, even
though it launched 2020. So it just had this incredibly rapid adoption curve. You have Swish
in Sweden, across East Asia, Japan, Thailand, Switzerland, central bank after central bank are
deciding, hey, we should have our version of this. And so this is a reinvention of t
he payment system
from scratch. For hard to understand reasons, things typically seem like once you layer
in the customer support and the consumer protection and the fraud prevention and the
anti-money laundering controls and the credit, the things just for some weird reason seem to
asymptote at around 2 or 3%. It's important to also note that a lot of the 2 or 3% beyond
just covering the costs, much of the surplus ends up getting remitted to consumers in
the form of rewards. Not in every
country, but in many countries. And if you look at the
public reports from various banks in the US their interchange revenue where they're getting these
delicious fees on every transaction as you put it, a lot of that is going straight back out the door
to the consumers themselves and so on. So anyway, it's not clear how exactly one should think about
the economics, if it's going back to the consumer, should you include that as a transaction tax
or is it just a weird circular relationship?
I've not seen any evidence to suggest that
the 2% or thereabouts is massively inefficient in the scheme of things. I'm not saying it's
the optimal level, maybe 1% would be better, but within some range of 1 to 3%, it's probably
reasonable. As we think about some of these ad valorem fees and figures, I think the place where
there's even more change at the moment that we find ourselves thinking more about is actually
the changing structure of global tax where the idea of there's been a reason
able amount of
innovation, in the tax domain over the last century where income taxes got pretty high, then
we value added taxes and so on. The new thing, at least in the online context is jurisdictions
remitting, or excuse me, or imposing sales taxes on businesses that don't have any
locus in the jurisdiction in question. So you're a podcaster in the Bay Area and the
Dwarkesh merch store will have to pay the town of Uppsala in Sweden will have a special tax
on baseball caps, and you will
need to know about that particular tax on baseball caps and
any baseball caps that you are selling to the Uppsalans. You'll have to collect that amount from
the buyer, report to Uppsala and then eventually figure out how you're going to get that money
to Uppsala. Obviously there's this combinatoric problem of buyer jurisdictions and product types,
and then all the different jurisdictions that you have to remit the money to. And those amounts,
we're not talking three basis points. The taxes
in question are often 5% or 10% or something
so it's not trivial. And so just as I think about the funds flows on the internet and how all
that's evolving and unfolding, I think changes in tax law are actually a much bigger deal than
anything about the transactional economics. Yeah, but by the way, it's not the Dwarkesh
podcast. It's Lunar Society Podcast LLC registered on Stripe Atlas. Any merchandise I sell in
the future, Stripe will take care of that. Yes. Okay. Well, if there's
ever an
y Stripe complaints... No, it's great. It's been super useful honestly, it would've been much bit more difficult
to get business the operations going. Sorry, I know you're supposed to be interviewing
me, but did Stripe play any, even on the margins, counterfactual role in you charging for
anything? This is the thing we're always interested in when we talk about growing the GDP
of the internet, it's not like get the existing GDP onto our rails. It's where on the margin
can we cause there to
be economic activity that isn't already occurring? So you did in
fact start the podcast before incorporating, but were we causal in any fashion in
the merch or anything of that nature? To the extent that Substack would
not be convenient place to get payments from to begin with, that's a
differing thing. And also if I do... You wouldn't charge for the newsletter
if Substack hadn't made it super easy? Yeah. And also if I do an ad or
something, I wouldn't even know how to begin with getting t
he money if I
didn't already have an LLC through Stripe with an associate banking account that I'm
going to get the money through. So yeah, probably counterfactual responsible
for a lot of the monetization. That's cool. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Appreciate it. So what
are some unexpected compliments to payment processing you see in the future?
So all this stuff, Atlas, identity, fraud detection, in retrospect, it might have
not have been obvious that back then there was a good compliment. Now it d
oes seem that
way, what would be like this in 5, 10 years? Honestly, our problem ends up being that too many
things, more things that we can possibly pursue looked like compliments in that every business,
almost by definition has revenue. And so we obviously want to help them generate and accept
and manage and orchestrate everything pertaining to that revenue. But once you're in that flow
and you just go through the steps of running a business, a lot else looks relevant and somehow
connect
quite directly. When Stripe started out, it definitely wasn't cool. It was the opposite,
it was just a couple of us and we thought that we could make this superior payments API. And for the
vast majority of its history, Stripe has, I think, attracted people who are drawn to unglamorous
infrastructure challenges and problems. We are not a company that specializes in making
beautiful cars. We make roads and I bring all of that up because I think it's relevant
to this compliment question wher
e in our discussions internally, a lot of it and are the
significant majority of it is still about, okay, where are there actual practical shortcomings
and limitations in even our core bread and butter? And payment processing might be a
slightly too limited term to use for it. Maybe it's more about just global programmable money
orchestration, which yes is consumer to business payments. The sort we were just discussing
in, say, the context of your Substack, but it's also business to busines
s payments. It's also
payments where those credit or lending involved, it's also how you hold money. It's how you
convert money between different currencies. It's how you represent money that's held by
different legal entities and how we make it possible for even individuals or small businesses
to act as micro multinationals and all this stuff. But those problems that we just skimmed over,
even though they all directly pertain to the movement of money, they're not small. And if we
could ju
st solve those really effectively, then Stripe will be a very consequential organization
and I think force in the world. And I think the counterfactual importance of building some of
this stuff as we go to newer markets that are on a relative basis more poorly served is actually
increasing rather than shrinking. In the US there were payments companies before Stripe, and maybe
if Stripe had never done its thing, eventually you'd have found some way to monetize a newsletter
or something like
that. But if you're in Albania, the set of options available to you is far more
restricted and so I think that the marginal impact as we expand globally increases quite
a bit. So anyway, that's all to say that even though we are interested in and do today pursue
some of these direct adjacencies, I think that the core problem of global money orchestration
remains a really just big and unsolved problem. Does that look like being a better interface
for all these complexities and glossing them
over under the seven lines of code? Or
does that look like actually replacing the rails and the infrastructure to make
all this more efficient and effective? The former. The former, it's just not that
useful to build financial ecosystems that are self-contained. Right? A financial island is not
that helpful. It's much more valuable to build, I don't know, a financial... This is mixing
metaphors, but a financial air network or something. But I think we would much prefer that
Stripe plugged
into every existing system and rail and domestic organization rather than
that we tried to come along and supplant them. And this has been Stripe's strategy very
deliberately from the beginning where there were lots of companies when Stripe started out,
they were trying to do their own thing and go their own way. Whereas our belief was, you
got these, it's classic, Metcalf Law stuff of by enhancing the capabilities of an existing
ecosystem, you create quite a bit more value. Okay. Let's go
back to Stripe. Is Stripe a writing culture for the benefit of
the writer or the reader? It can be both. But which ones are more so? I think there are actually really considerable
benefits on both sides because for the reader, it's not just that it's maybe more efficient to
communicate stuff through text, though in many cases it is. But also there's this intertemporal
benefit where future readers can try to understand the through line and the thought process that
led us to this point. And I
think that's very considerable. But it's also true that I think
that, I write things and lots of people write things in order to organize one's own thoughts.
And if that ability was taken away from me, I think I'd be meaningfully less effective so
how exactly those balance out is hard to say. Maybe... They're not actually separable.
That's my answer. Literate cultures are just a different thing. I don't mean literate
in some faux intellectual way. I just mean, maybe 'textual cultures' is a
better term
here where Bruno Latour spoke about how he thinks part of how the printing revolution like
Gutenberg's caused the scientific revolution was by making knowledge more rigid. Where before,
if some observation didn't match some claim, you can always shrug and be like, "Well, the
person who transcribed that thing just made a mistake or whatever." And so by making
things more rigid, it's easier to break them. And then you can notice discrepancies
between, the theory or the claim or
whatever. Then you can notice discrepancies between
I guess the theory or the claim or whatever and the actual reality. And I think there's some
version of that organizationally where, I mean, I'm not drawing that precise parallel,
but there are analogous dynamics where the nature of oral cultures and contextual
cultures are just quite different. And the kinds of collaboration that are possible and
the kinds of consistency that can be achieved, it is just fundamentally different. And is fro
nt
or rear wheel of the bicycle more valuable? I guess theoretically you can have a unicycle, but
as a practical matter, you do just need both. I know I said no more AI questions, but on
this particular point, it actually seems very legitimate to me that you might expect
firms that have a lot of writing to be the first to experience a productivity gains of AI,
because there's all this context that the model doesn't have available readily. I don't
know if that's something you anticipate? I
think that's probably true. Yeah, I don't
know. And if the model is really good, maybe you should be able to pick stuff up quickly,
but I think most organizations are not recording all of their meetings for a variety of reasons.
And if they're not, then yeah, there is this question of what is the corpus? How do you get up
to speed? So yeah, my guess is that'll be true. Tell me about the internal LLM you built. Oh, we didn't build an internal LLM. We built
an internal LLM tool for making it
very easy for people to integrate LLMs into production services,
but also just into their regular workflows as humans. So the ability to work directly, I guess,
with the LLM as a standard chat agent as lots of people have built, but then also to integrate
that with some of our tools for querying and accessing data. Or maybe most interestingly
with sharing prompts across different people. And so somebody might discover, I mean, one
of my favorite examples actually is somebody put together a
prompt for optimizing
SQL queries and it doesn't always work, but sometimes it does. And it's very cheap
to ask us, "Got any ideas for optimizing the SQL query?" And sometimes it'll come
up with some good stuff. And so yeah, the collaborative abilities there
have proven surprisingly high return. And I don't know what the total number of
invocations is, but I think we're making millions of invocations per day now. There are
just dozens of dozens of actual production use cases across Stripe
and all sorts of really ...
I mean, the financial services ecosystem is in some way a giant analog to digital exercise
because humans are analog and intentions and identities and all these things have, there's
always some degree of uncertainty around them and some noise. But then transactions are
digital and we often find in these analog to digital conversions that LLMs can be a
surprisingly interesting augmenting tool. And actually on that point about the, I
don't know, the flexibility an
d the edge cases in the way humans interact with
these systems. I mean, in some sense, Stripe is a really high stakes bug bounty
program if somebody hacks it, not only your financial services, obviously money's in
play. But if there's reliability issues, not just because of a hack, but because you
deployed the wrong way, a significant percentage of world GDP would grind a halt at least while
it's down. How do you deal with that kind of responsibility? How do you keep the uptime
and keep th
e reliability while deploying fast? Yeah, this is one of the things
we've spent the most time on. I mean, back to this point about wanting to be the
place with the best people, and the value of focusing on craft so that you can have the best
people. In the context of software development, one of the things that developers really hate is,
well, actually two things that developers hate: slow development cycles and it'll
ship in the next release in a month, and that kind of thinking. Developer
s also
hate being paged at 2:00 AM for incidents. And so yeah, given the criticality of the
businesses that we serve, which is in rough terms, 1% of the global economy, I mean, it's not
totally clear how to measure this because we're not measuring ... GDP is defined as final
goods and Stripe is not only selling final goods, and so in theory there could be a bit
of double counting. But Stripe is mostly selling final goods. We're not used for, by and
large, for giant supply chain shipments.
So, I think maybe there's a mismeasurement of 10%
or 20% or something. But long story short, I think it works out about 1% of global
GDP. It's about $1 trillion a year. As you say, that then makes us really terrified
of outages. And so we work so hard to enable fast iteration and development cycles without having
outages. And just to put some numbers on it, we deploy production services that are in the
core charge flow around 1,000 times a day. Most of these services are automatically deplo
yed, so
when anybody makes any production-ready change, it just goes into production and it's meticulously
and carefully orchestrated so that it at first is just running some small sliver of traffic and then
incrementally more traffic until it's everything. So about 1,000 deploys per day at roughly, or
somewhat in excessive five-and-a-half nines, like 99.995% reliability, which works out to
about, I think about 100 and ... Yeah, two, two and a half minutes of unavailability
per year. It's
not that we have obviously two and a half contiguous minutes of
unavailability, but that's what it approximates. Even though it tends to happen
as background radiation throughout the year. And getting to that point, yeah, just takes
a huge amount of investment in ... And then those security properties
that are less readily measured, but analogous to those figures. And I
guess Silicon Valley doesn't tend to, I'm perhaps being now unfair and attributing
things to Silicon Valley, but maybe a
lot of the tech industry doesn't place a lot of value on
process and operational excellence. We culturally value the spontaneous and the creative and the
iconoclastic and the path breaking But building mechanisms that can enable really reliable,
enable the very reliable provision of important services at scale and removing the sources
of variability that can really cause a bad day for a very large number of people, I don't
think they get quite as much cultural credit. But yeah, we have adop
ted all sorts of ...
For example, we found that this kind of a core feedback loop around ... None
of this sounds like rocket science, but defining what it's that we care about and then
building automated measuring systems to obviously measure to what degree it's actually happening
in practice. And then to try to figure out, well, in the cases where we're not living
up to that, what is the reason? And then to actually intervene and to improve the
system so that that's not happening. And the
n importantly, to build secondary controls
that detect instances of deviation long before they actually cause a production problem or
anything. But just where we understand the behavior of the system in sufficient detail that
we can instrument it in some upstream way. Most of what I said there I think was well understood
by production engineers in 1930s. So again, I'm not claiming that it's any kind of radical
breakthrough, but we have found that the adoption of these practices in really te
nacious multi-year
form just yields really high returns. And there may be other organizations that both ship at that
rate and maintain that sort of developer velocity at this combination of scale and reliability
and security. But I don't think there are that many. And I think it's a real testament to the
remarkable folks at Stripe who made it happen Last point, but actually the fact
that you have this huge internal tooling and the testing is once you get
the AI engineers, they can just pus
h the commits and you have the infrastructure
set up that it can be readily evaluated Across the board, I think so much comes
back to what has to be true for us actually to be able to build and to take seriously
this goal of building the best software? And it's easy to say that as some lofty,
vague, hand wavy aspirational statement, but if you take that seriously as
a goal, and if you think of, well, what would you have to measure if you were
actually going to pursue it in earnest? And par
t are the characteristics of organizations
that do produce it, I mean, you get down to, well, customers have to really like your stuff. So
okay, well, how can we measure that and how can we systematize the process of making sure that there
aren't progressions there? And so we have this concept of experience journeys, which are sort
of pathways through stride that we really care are always implemented at a really high quality
level. And it has to be true that developers can iterate very quic
kly. And we just spoke
about how to make that happen. And, and, and. And so, I feel like maybe a theme through
everything we've talked about is actually taking the goal seriously. And I feel like
a lot of what we do at Stripe is, again, I disclaim any genius in it, I think
it's just the very earnest, repeated, serious and long-term application
of taking the goal seriously. A few more Stripe questions. 1% of global GDP is, it's such a staggering number. When you think
about where further gr
owth for Stripe comes from, does it come from the internet economy expanding?
Or does it come from Stripe becoming a larger share of the internet economy? And to the extent
that Stripe is growing faster than the internet, if we consider that the beta in your
case, where is that alpha coming from? That's a good question. Well, the customers
that Stripe observes are outgrowing the internet economy as a whole, like in aggregate. Now at
some point, those have to converge for obvious mathematica
l reasons, but we're 14 years in and
they haven't converged yet. So I think there's a lot of headroom there. And say Stripe is handling
around $1 trillion a year, when Stripe started out, the global economy was $60 trillion to $70
trillion-ish, and the global economy is now around $100 trillion. And so we still have quite a bit
of headroom before the amount of activity that is coming out of Stripe is really butting up
against the ceiling of global economic growth. And of course, it's not li
ke there's no
ceiling on global economic growth and for all sorts of reasons, it could be
vastly higher than it is. And I don't even mean new technologies or AIs or
whatever, but just obviously all the basic per capita math you can do around what
if everybody had an income on par with the US? And I think it is. One of the reasons I am so
interested in working on Stripe is I think it's the old line, the Lucas line, about how when
you start thinking about differential rates of development in
countries, it's hard to think
about anything else. Why does Brazil have the particular income and GDP level that it does? Why
does Poland have the level that it does? Why did Ireland have the trajectory that it did where we
went from being the sick man of Europe to now one of the wealthiest countries there? And I feel like
Stripe is some applied version of this question in practice where you're building software products
but, in some sense, connected to or touching upon these questions of,
well, why aren't there
more countries? Excuse me, why aren't there more countries? Why aren't there more companies?
And what determines the growth rate of a company? When you start the merch store, why does it have
X level of buyers rather than 2X? And I actually think those questions, I think those remain
fruitful questions. We actually haven't optimized the meta system of business to any particularly
great extent. For the vast majority of business businesses have been offline inefficient
, analog,
everything. And it's really only over the last one to two decades that a significant share of this
has been meaningfully digitized. And the prospects for efficiency gains and optimizations there
are still pretty significantly under explored. And we find incredibly basic things like
just extending capital to businesses. I mean, the reason we do that is not to generate profit
from the loans, but because we find that the businesses who we extend the capital then just
grow faster on
a sort of persistent subsequent basis. Or trying to figure out how does a business
decide which countries it sells in? And you'll find even for the smallest business through to
some of the largest businesses in the world that these are very ad hoc and not particularly
deeply thought through questions. Why don't you sell in Mexico and Brazil or whatever? IT
was like, "Well, it seemed kind of complicated, and so we didn't quite get around to it
and so forth." And so I think there's, to your q
uestion about where does the growth
come from? I think that there's still an awful lot of low-hanging fruit in just asking
some of these incredibly basic questions. So, when we think about the way in which
Stripe will continue to grow in the future, in some sense, it'll obviously involve a lot
of big businesses and you're now processing a significant amount of Amazon volume. There's
these other businesses you're doing deals with. First tell me how you think, it kind of makes
sense how an e
xponentially growing startup would contribute to exponentially growing growth for
Stripe. How does Stripe keep growing at the same trajectory when it is existing big businesses
that you're partnering with? And the second, also the case for why these startups matters so
compelling. A new thing is coming into this world, then we should really support it
and make sure it happens. Why is it compelling that Amazon can fulfill
orders more efficiently or something? Yeah, those are very good questi
ons. So, on the first one, you're right. Stripe is
doomed to eventually grow at the rate of the economy. And there's just a question of
how long it takes to get there, right? Now, the good news is I think it can be a very
long time because as we just discussed, there's so much low-hanging fruit around different
optimizations and improvements that are possible. And so I think it'll be many decades before that
happens, but it's true that will eventually occur. On the second question about wha
t's the, it's
obviously virtuous or compelling or exciting to foster all these nascent startups and to be
an anti-incumbency force, but what's the case for supporting established businesses? I think
people misunderstand where a small business, typically, not in every case, but at least
in the cases where we denote them startups, there's usually an embedded innovation. And
the innovation is all that the company is. They have a new idea and they're going to do
something better or different o
r whatever. And so generally speaking, we like innovation, and so
we've positive sentiments towards that startup. But there's a lot of innovation that comes
from large, established businesses. That's not all they do. There's also just running the
existing thing. And so maybe it's a smaller share, but the aggregate fraction of innovation that
comes from established businesses is really large. And we have to be cognizant of the
cognitive bias of the startups perhaps being somewhat more conspi
cuous and maybe on a relative
basis, the improvements in turbine technology, or in fab technology, or in insulation
technology that come from established businesses. Choose any sector of the economy
and a significant fraction of the important inventions that occurred over the last 10 or
20 years will have come from the incumbents. And so, I think as a general class, and
Tyler of course wrote a book on this, I think big business is underrated.
And if you look at the survey data, people tend
to have very positive sentiments,
not only towards startups, but towards small business as a class. Whereas even though
they've negative sentiments or relatively negative sentiments towards big business, not that
bad on an absolute basis, but not as favorable, I think it's true that established businesses tend
to pay better, they tend to be more efficient, more of the innovation in our economy comes from
them, and they produce a lot of consumer surplus. I think the specific case for Stripe
working with
them is typically they're coming to us not because they want to take the thing that they're already
doing and just go to all the work of transposing it to Stripe, but because either they want to do
a new thing that they're just not doing today, and so it's associated with some new
business line or some new innovation or invention or whatever, or they've
spotted the opportunity to, I guess, to maybe not produce a new product,
but to meaningfully change how they provide an exis
ting one in a fashion
that again, yields consumer surplus. And that sounds very abstract and theoretical, but
in practice, what it tends to mean is they want to take this thing they're selling in this market and
sell it in many more markets. Or they've realized that they're selling it in this kind of modality
and they should sell it in other more convenient ways. They should sell it on mobile or something.
And each of those, if it's successful and people actually buy it in any significant n
umbers, I
guess we're getting this decentralized signal from the economy that there's now something of
value being provided that wasn't heretofore. And as I take stock of the businesses, like
the enterprises that are in the process of migrating to Stripe or that did, so the last year,
whether it's the large retailers or the large global manufacturing firms or shipping companies,
things like this, it typically has one of those two patterns, new product or current product
sold to people who
weren't buying it before. Yeah, yeah. I mean, if you think about just
the big trends in this society that are needed to solve our big problems, like Moore's
Law or the cost of solar or something, these are just, you have marginal improvements
over many decades. Big tech or big companies are just able to invest a lot of
money into doing the R&D here. Relentless iterative
improvement, yes, is underrated. Can I ask about John for a second? Sure. So, you guys recently published for
Charlie's A
lmanac and subsequently Charlie Munger has passed away.
Did Munger ever comment on your relationship, and if or whether it
reminded him of his and Buffet's? Not to me, but he knew John better, and so it's
possible that he did to John. Yeah, I don't know. What have you learned about marriage from John?
I mean, that this sort of coequal and intense, lengthy partnership is the closest
thing that you have is marriage, right? Well, I'm relatively new to the practice of
marriage, so maybe in a d
ecade I'll be able to extract the generalizable commonalities. I
suppose the general thing I would say is I think working with people you're close to is underrated.
And I'm doing Arc with Patrick Sue and Sylvana, Fast Grants was with Tyler and Sylvana, Stripe is
obviously with John. And actually John was also, I should mention, instrumentally involved in
Arc's formation. It would not have happened without John. And could give more examples,
but I feel like for all the ventures of any signif
icance in my life, they've not only been
with others, but been with other people that I'm very close to and where I had and would like to
have an enduring relationship that outlives them. And sometimes one hears the advice that you
shouldn't work with friends or maybe you shouldn't work with your partner or something like
that. And look, all these things are idiosyncratic and there are instances of every possible
permutation. But for me it's been a really rewarding experience. And I think J
ohn and I can
work together for ... You never know life, but I think we'll probably work together for decades.
And for us, it's been a really, both an important source of just meaning and, again, fulfillment.
But also I think there's a real complementarity. And I think that Stripe would be a less effective
company without either of us. I don't just mean from a bandwidth standpoint or something, but
I think we both bring different things to bear. Maybe the final question I'll ask you is
wha
t really strikes out to me about you, I mean, there's many things, obviously, but
one of the things is just how broadly you think of your job description. To the
extent that you think of if science is slowing down and civilization is stagnating,
that'll be bad for the GDP of the internet, so you can better get on that. Or if COVID keeps
going on, that's not good for business. Maybe that's not the way you thought about why you
needed to do Fast Grants. But in some sense, the extended phenoty
pe of what you think your
job is just incredibly broad. And I just wonder, is that trainable? When did you get
that? How do you think about that? I guess I just think about it as ... And this is
not false humility, just trying to do things that are useful and that contribute to civilization.
We're incredibly lucky that we get to live in this improbable, some combination of carnival and
city and sprawling edifice built by all the people who came before us. And I think it's not perfect,
nor
is it future prospering fore ordained. And we get to experience it for a pretty brief glimmer.
And it seems rewarding to do things of utility. And I mean, it's true that part of,
again, what's to us compelling about Stripe is that it pulls us into so many
different nooks and crannies of the world, and that generally it's value aligned with the
prospering of the world, as you say. And yeah, you can justify or at least view it somewhat
consistent some to these other pursuits with respect to s
tripes goals as well. But I think
it really just comes from a desire to be useful. Patrick, I think that's a great place to leave
it. Thank you so much for coming on the podcast. Thank you. hey everybody I hope you enjoyed that episode
as always the most helpful thing you can do is to share the podcast send it to people
you think might enjoy it put it in Twitter your group chats Etc just splits the world I
appreciate you listening I'll see you next time cheers
Comments
Dwarkesh Patel, you are just 23. I can't believe it. I am 19, studying Computer Science in India. You really inspire me; I am genuinely jealous of your knowledge.
While reading patrick advice in his site I really wanted for any podcaster to ask him advice for 20s since he is now 35ish. Love ya Dwarkesh!
what an incredibly high quality guest yet again
Hope you enjoy! If you do, please share it :) Helps a ton.
yes, silicon valley and tech in general is very status orienter today. startups or tech are not scuffed contrarian paths anymore
Love ya Dwarkesh!
Hey, Dorkesh, thanks for this, cheers!
Another great podcast -- thank you!
8:00 don’t follow prevailing tides automatically 11:40 in business you’re really choosing the problem you solve rarely, then a quite a bit of the rest is iterative problem solving
GOAT-level hedges per second
"Is Stripe a writing culture that benefits the writer or the reader?" I still don't get this question, but Collison immediately grokked it.
Great questions!! BTW, know what the book on Danish industrialization/Novo Nordisk was that he mentioned?
One of them ones to listen to at 0.75x
Great Advices. Goal And Strategy.
This is just awesome Btw, do you have your discord server or something?
favourite podcast! I'd shout from the rooftops if i could about the dwarkesh podcast. plz consider having joscha bach on the show!
Holy shit you're 23. Madly impressive
Thanks!
How come you don’t ask Patrick more about crypto and stablecoins?
Had to check if my playback speed was normal lol