[Music] welcome back data download time although democrats still face an uphill battle in november the last few weeks have brought them some wins along with some structural changes in the parties and the fact that trump is not on the ballot in the midterms expectations of a republican wave could be premature one of the biggest changes in the parties over the last few decades is in education in 1996 27 percent of republicans had at least a bachelor's degree higher than the democrats 22 percent bu
t the growth in the democrats numbers since then has been more consistent and larger while the gop's share of highly educated voters rose slightly and then dropped back to 29 in 2019 12 points lower than the democrats that year and these numbers matter because not everyone votes at the same rate in the 2016 presidential election the more educated the voter the more likely they were to vote with 47.4 of high school educated people casting a ballot versus 71 of those with a bachelor's degree or hi
gher so when a party's percentage of college grads falls that may make it harder to get the desired voter turnout but also important here is the drop-off in the midterms although it's expected the margins matter and after starting with the lowest number to begin with turnout among voters with a high school education also dropped the most a decrease of 8.6 percent from the presidential vote to the 2018 midterms in other words as the parties change the gop is trading people who vote more frequentl
y for people who vote less frequently while the democrats are doing the opposite and that trade-off may be magnified in midterms it's true the republican party continues to tie itself to former president trump a strong vote motivator but the question remains of what the gop electorate will look like when he is not on the ballot we've had one example of this in 2018 and those turnout numbers show a steep drop while the democrats lost about 5 million votes from 2016 the republicans saw a much larg
er drop of 12 million thanks for watching our youtube channel follow today's top stories and breaking news by downloading the nbc news app you
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