welcome to Silicon bites episode 38 and as You' have noticed so much is going on that the usual half hour format for silicon bites just isn't enough to fit it all in and the episodes coming out every 10 days to two weeks is definitely not frequent enough cover everything that's going on in and of depth so I'm going to try to record these twice a week from here on in and to provide more in depth analysis of the news as it happens now you might expect me to lead with the attacks on Moscow no I thi
nk a more significant story is to focus on what Ukraine is doing and on Ukraine's strikes against Russian oil rary capacity the mosca times reports on the 23rd of March that a fire broke out at an oil refinery further east in Samara after Ukrainian drone attacks the region of Samara saw several drone attacks on local oil refineries Governor Dimitri azarov said in a statement published on telegram one of them caused a fire at the Kish show for Refinery he added noting that there were no casualtie
s the refiner Run by Russian oil giant Ras nift is one of the largest in Samara with a production capacity of 7 million tons per year according to the official website and of course probably have seen numerous images and videos of refineries across Russia going up in Flames so what impact is this happening the business Ukraine magazine has reported that Ukrainian drones have knocked out 600,000 to 900,000 barrels of Russia's daily oil refining capacity Ukraine launched the major new bombing camp
aign of Russia's oil and gas industry infrastructure in January 2024 using domestically produced longrange drones and this is significant of course because Ukraine has been prevented by the Allies from using any Western supplied Munitions and weaponry on the territory of Russia these restrictions do not apply on the occupied territories of Ukraine those territories of Ukraine that were recognized by international law as Sovereign to Ukraine foring Independence in 1991 it can and has used weapons
right across that territory but within Russia it needs to develop its own capacity to strike there various analysis have been done and of course it's difficult to get precise answers and Russia will not be releasing the truth on this especially if the strategy is working and causing pain for the Russian economy and impacting the Russian war machine but JP Morgan Chase analysts reported that daily Russian oil refining capacity has been reduced for several weeks if not several months until that c
apacity can be restored that of course isn't unknown as well we don't know whether Russia can gain access to the Western components and equipment that would be required to fit many of these refineries and this seems to be a strategy that's working at least it's a strategy that seems to be causing concern and consternation in Russia enough that it's reported they've been squealing the Americans that it should stop and in public making exaggerated terroristic threats of course according to Kev off
icials the air strikes are designed to starve the Russian invasion Force inside Ukraine of fuel while also undermining the economic foundations of Vladimir Putin's war machine on March the 1st Russia imposed a 6month ban on gasoline exports in a move widely linked to Ukraine's drone attacks since the beginning of 2024 Ukraine has successfully targeted more than a dozen refineries and that number seems to be going up on a daily basis leading to production halts and damage to critical infrastructu
re with the majority of Russia's air defense systems currently deployed in Ukraine the Kremlin is struggling to defend against Ukraine's trone attacks and to add more detail Bloomberg reports that Russia's average daily oil refining rate fell to the lowest weekly level in 10 months after this flurry of Ukrainian drone attacks their estimate is that there's been a drop of 400,000 barrels a day but of course the situation is changing on a daily basis and one of the reasons why the Bloomberg estima
te is perhaps a little lower is their gure that the actual reduction in total crude processing capacity is smaller because undamaged plants have been able to increase their throughput to ensure sufficient production of motor fuels now this is an interesting article because it lists the capacity and location of all the refineries hit and has some incredible detail embedded within the article and a story that is potentially linked to this is the surprise and what has been described as covert visit
of Jake Sullivan to Ukraine unannounced quite sudden and apparently he arrived in Kev with no new packages of eight just promises and reassurances Biden's man turned up in Kiev and vowed more help that was coming on the way for Ukraine despite the gridlock in the US political system in the surprise visit to Kev the National Security adviser Jake Sullivan urged Ukraine to believe in the US and expressed confidence that Congress will vote for the $60 billion of supplemental Aid his visit came jus
t a day after a meeting of Ukraine's defense contact group at the Ramstein Airbase in Germany and of course as we know Congress is still refusing to vote through that emergency aid package that Ukraine so desperately needs and of course with the looming election in the US many people are concerned that the former US president Donald Trump could further reduce assistance to Ukraine if reelected or even halt it completely and whereas many of the online articles simply quote Jake Sullivan's reassur
ances there is an interesting article in the financial times to suggest perhaps another motivation for him turning up in K at this moment and the article suggests that it is the very air strikes on Russia's refining capacity that's causing real pain and real issues for Russia and its war effort that is actually one of the reasons that Jake Sullivan turned up his apparent strategy of escalation management is falling part it is if anything an abject failure by trying to contain the war in Ukraine
by under supplying Ukraine for victory and supplying them merely to survive and potentially misreading Putin's mindset misreading the idea that he will not stop until he's stopped misreading the idea that he will think rationally and economically to save the lives of his people and banking everything on a negotiated settlement and a freezing of the lines of contact well that has not happened there is no sign of negotiation there's no sign that Putin wants to stop or that his appetite for war agg
ression and violence has diminished in any way after two years of fullscale war an escalation management is not leading to an easing of tensions or a balancing of tensions or a preservation of the status quo it is in fact leading further and further to the St the situation being outside of the control of the US and indeed outside of the control of anyone there is now Insurgency on the territory of Russia another great Ukrainian strategy in fact and there are these extensive air strikes that are
threatening the motor oil fuel oils for Russia's war effort these strategies could well be working these strategies is could be a path to a Ukrainian Victory so the idea that Jake San might be trying to turn the screws and put pressure on Ukraine to stop these tactics is an idea that is frankly morally repugnant it's tantamount if true to asking ukrainians to die quietly to put up with attrition and destruction on extraordinary scale simply to maintain an imagined status quo and to an extent I t
hink Ukrainian government has been enthra to the us over these last couple of years while Munitions were being supplied it was willing to observe some of these red lines that are hinted at and behind closed doors potentially imposed by the US and Biden's security advisor however it's been six months since those large packages of Aid turned up and there is no timeline for when the 60 billion in Aid will actually resurface in that time Ukraine has steadfastly held the line against massive Russian
assaults it has survived a harsh winter without the energy problems it experienced last year it has started to regain control of the skies and regain control of the Black Sea but with no clear path to break through to Victory Ukraine needs to take measures to ensure its survival and to ensure that Russia is weakened and held at Bay it will not do that by quietly dying in trenches sacrificing its bravest and best to a misguided us strategy of escalation management Ukraine is now perhaps realizing
that it needs to take its fate and its victory in its own hands work with allies when that help is profited but not sit back and wait for Aid That Never Comes or be beholden to strategies that will not lead to Victory and of course while Kev strikes military targets and goes out of its way not to hit any civilian objects Russia does exactly the opposite it while the world's attention has been on Moscow and the horrific terrorist attack and let's be clear no civilians should be targeted by bombs
missiles or guns or any other such violence there is no justification for the torture killing maming of civilians under any circumstances in any country but while the world's attention is focused on Moscow and the plight of the civilians there Russia Russia has continued to fire missiles and drones and guided bombs right across Ukraine terrorizing and killing children and unlike the terrorist act in Moscow which has the power to shock distressingly the same terrorist acts by the Russian State a
gainst Ukraine are somehow normalized normalized in the media ignored by the media the daily death tunel the daily trauma the daily Misery the daily psychological pressure of being under bombardment that is experienced by teenagers adults and children alike as well as animals goes on day in day out and should never be normalized well let's turn to some of those attacks against Ukraine before we cover the news of Moscow in more depth here are some of the key details on March 25th Russia launched
another massive missile attack on Kev injuring at least two people reporters from the Kev independent in the capital heard at least four loud explosions just seconds after the air raid siren sounded at around 10:30 a.m. local time smoke was seen rising from the Left Bank of the city DeBry from an intercepted missile fell in the city's cherk District damaging a non-residential building DeBry fell on a building at the KF State Academy of decorative and applied art destroying the Academy's gym and
conso the ministry confirmed that one employee was wounded and yet again we can see that these sites these buildings have nothing whatsoever do with the military they constitute war crimes it's absolutely clear that Russia is targeting civilian infrastructure and using its weapons for Terror not for any military strategic objective and this is where again in the media we see weak narratives often it is described that Ukraine is retaliating when it hits Russian infrastructure or as in the example
of the two large Landing ships yamal and aov which were reportedly hit by Ukrainian missile strike on Russian occupied Crimea these attacks are sometimes described as retaliatory no this is not retaliation this is a completely justifiable military strategy inducted by a nation that is defending itself against a genocidal aggressive Invasion it is not retaliation it is war when Russia strikes Ukrainian civilian targets that is retaliation that's a retaliatory War crime to kill civilians because
it is failing to hit military targets and is failing on the battlefield and Ukrainian missile defense systems continue to take out an extraordinary number of drones and missiles unfortunately when they do strike those missiles it does cause metal and debris to crash to the ground a lot of the destruction and injuries we're seeing are actually caused from the fragments of air defense systems and the Russian ordinance that they are shooting out of the sky in that sense Russia Bears full responsibi
lity for all the destruction and injuries that those missiles and drones cause even after air defense has taken them out and this has prompted Ukrainian President Vladimir inski to say that attacks like these show that Ukraine still needs better air defense systems from allies and it needs popups of ammunitions for those systems that are currently in place and the attacks today were reported to also contain Hypersonic missiles and this is a real challenge because the missiles hit Kiev only secon
ds after the air raid alert was sounded that left no time for people to head to the shelters in one of the extraordinary images we see small children rushing from that classroom towards the shelter in absolute Panic to get undercover in time as if we needed any reminders Russia is a terrorist State and it is governed by a terrorist a psychopathic killer who has absolutely no compunction in hurting others and indeed in hurting his own own people as well and another feature of Russia's attacks thi
s week has been to go after Ukrainian energy infrastructure and of course it's been many months since we last Saw attacks at this scale on energy infrastructure and attacks that actually have such a serious impact and that includes the strike on the denipa hydroelectric power plant which has been incapacitated after the Russian attack has been reported that the damage may take years to repair Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant was hit with at least six Russian missiles on March 22nd dur
ing one of the biggest attacks on the country's energy infrastructure since the beginning of the fullscale invasion the hydroelectric power station hps2 one of the two stations of zapar Asia's Dina hydroelectric power plant was described described as in critical condition as several Russian missiles hit it directly damaging crane girders and a supporting pillar it was reported the adjacent Dam also suffered damage but there was no danger of a breach according to the head of Yuka hyra Ina and of
course this is significant the head of the power plant has said that the loss of capacity of the station is a significant loss the Ukrainian Energy System as a fall and at the same time as this attack Russian forces also targeted AR and other regions primarily aiming at the energy infrastructure around 190 missiles 140 Shahed type drones and 700 aerial bombs were used over the past week alone said President Vladimir zilinski and now we turn to the terrorist incident in Moscow Putin has finally r
ecognized that it is radical islamists who carried out the terrorist attack but per verely claims that Ukraine was still involved despite there being no supporting evidence for this statement the US he said through various channels is trying to convince everyone that there is supposedly no trace of Kev in the bloody terrorist attack at Crocus concert venue that it is the banned Islamic State alone well I won't report more on Putin's lies we know they are way for thin at this point in time there
are of course conspiracy theories flooding the internet and there's a huge amount of detail that if taken without coroporation could definitely suggest some form of ollusion between the FSB and local police and the terrorist incident however we have to remember as well that Russia's Police Service its Security Services are not built and designed to root out crime they're designed to oppress and terrorize their own people people joining these services are not inspired by the same things that peop
le joining western police services are inspired by laziness ardess and brutality will appeal to many people joining these services so should we be surprised at the share incompetence of the security forces in failing to tackle this terrorist incident should we be surprised that they waited until the terrorists were out of the way turn up should we be surprised that once they had apprehended what were thought to be the suspects they beat them and tortured them and filmed it all and should we be s
urprised that the security services delayed turning up to the venue to avoid harm or risk to themselves this is the act of cowards of course this is the act of people who've gained their positions through nepotism and through an understanding that the main job description is to beat peaceful civilians and protesters to root out distance and oppositionists torture men and women who dare to protest against the regime these are not qualities that make for an effective police force or an effective i
ntelligence serves I think the jury is still out as to whether these events Were Somehow enabled by the FSB or factions within the syia key and to what end they might have done that we will only come to know in the coming weeks and months we will only perhaps come to understand who was or wasn't involved by the subsequent actions of the government Putin of his inner circle and of course further evidence that may come to light that confirms whether this was a genuine terrorist attack that happene
d without the knowledge of Putin or whether somehow these events turn out to be similar to the apartment bombings where there is compelling evidence to link them to the FSB and to a distinct political strategy to entrench Putin's power in the late 90s early 2000s now it's been pointed out that Putin may need such a terrorist incident to terrorize his people to set the scene for announcing major mobilization but it has I think been compelling pointed out that actually Putin does not need a major
excuse to do this he has eliminated all of the opposition he's eliminated any free media and almost everybody who would oppose his rule in any organized fashion has left the country or is already in prison he can already act with impunity he's shown that he can take out his opponents he's not afraid to murder people by the dozens the hundreds if not the thousands he's shown that he can murder ukrainians at well hundreds of thousands of innocent people and so far there have been almost no consequ
ences for him he has almost complete impunity he does not need a terrorist outrage in order to move to the next stage of the war and the next stage of escalation of the war on his side which is the turning over the Russian economy fully to military production and another massive wave of mobilization he could do these things anyway without a terrorist atrocity and of course radical Islamic terrorists have plenty of reason to Target Russia Russia in its support of the dictator Assad in Syria has c
aused innumerable crimes against civilians the devastation of cities such as Aleppo and incredible massacres of both Syrian Palestinian and other populations in the area with absolutely no regard for human life there is plenty of cause for people to see Russia as the enemy and in their justification plenty of cause to inflict trauma on Russia a country that has shown itself ready to inflict trauma on others now we're going to quickly cover a number of interesting stories that you may not have sp
otted this is one in the K of independent the sbu head says that Russia no longer is using the Crimea bridge for weapon supplies after repeated strikes on the bridge and of course one must assume the threat of other strikes coming in the weeks and months ahead the bridge called the Kirch Bridge connects the Russian mainland with Russian occupied Crimean Peninsula making it a crucial Supply route for Russian military in Ukraine at least up until now construction of the 19 km Long Bridge began aft
er the illegal 2014 annexation and occupation of Crimea and was completed in 2018 and as we have seen and of course with some Delight Russian proxy authorities in occupied Crimea regularly shut down traffic on the Bridge amid reports of explosions and drone strikes and we can only hope that Ukraine has the capacity and will to strike that bridge and at some point take it out completely and here's a story that gives some hope at least for the coming weeks and months for Ukraine and that is Burell
has confirmed that the EU is about to deliver 500,000 shells to Ukraine by the end of March which of course is coming up very soon the EU has delivered apparently 500,000 of the promised 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine and aims to deliver the total amount at the end of the year the eu's top Diplomat Joseph barell said in a blog post on March 25th the EU announced in March 2023 that it would provide Ukraine with a million shells within one year news first emerged of that in October 23 that
the block was unlikely to reach that Target and been unable to ramp up production in the required manner that then led to the Czech initiative to buy ammunition outside the EU and that is in addition to these efforts so that is referring to the 800,000 shells that are stocked in countries around the world that Prague has identified in February as potential supplies of Ukraine and that is now moving forward as the funding for that has I think almost completely being gathered which is tremendous
news that means the 500,000 shells about to be delivered by the EU is in addition to the 800,000 that should be finding their way to Ukraine over the coming months this is tremendous news and can't happen soon enough to help save Ukrainian lives on the now we're not going to talk too much about the so-called election in Russia or the special coronation operation as it's been dubed on Twitter but here's an interesting article at length in K independent showing evidence that the recent presidentia
l elections in Russia were the most rigged in its recent history estimates of vote rigging range from around 22 million votes to 31.6 million votes and that is without taking into account the online voting and election at gunpoint in Russian occupied parts of Ukraine if these results are included together voting fraud could have amounted to up to 40 million votes or 46% of the total number of people who allegedly voted this is fraud on an incredible scale and of course we must remember apart fro
m voting fraud intimidation and the forced voting of State sector employees there is massive State propaganda and the exclusion of stronger competitors from the presidential race and that is all used to ensure the desired result and the final two stories I think emphasize why the West still needs to wake up why it needs to have a plan to supply and support Ukraine and it needs to do this faster than is currently happening and one story here from the Moscow times talks about the Kremlin planning
a new mobilization for the clar of offensive Russia is planning to recruit 300,000 soldiers for a renewed offensive to seize the Ukrainian city of kiv the investigative news Outlet vorka reported on Friday citing sources es in the Kremlin defense Ministry and Regional governments where 300 snouts short that's why everything's ready for mobilization 2.0 one Kremlin Source was quoted as saying by the outlet K is next on the plan with the intention to preserve the city that's only possible in the c
ase of encirclement the source said claiming that Moscow seeks to avoid turning kiv into a second Mar and they want to showcase that quotes Russia knows how to fight in a civilized manner that perhaps is the least believable statement I've heard in this two years there is nothing civilized about the way Russia fights about the way they negotiate or about how they organize their own country the report suggests that Russian authorities will see to reach their target through a range of recruitment
strategies without officially declaring a mobilization drive because of course they don't want to see a huge Exodus of fighting age males from the country which is what happened in mobilization 1.0 and lastly in a significant change of tone and language Putin's Lackey and Kremlin spokesman Dimitri Pisco has said that Russia is in a state of War Moscow has until now officially termed its fullscale invasion of Ukraine a special military operation seeking to downplay the impact of the 2-year confli
ct on civilian life in Russia but pesov has now said Russia has found itself in a state of war with Ukraine he announced this in an inter with a pro government newspaper argument and facty and theoretically under Russian law he has committed a criminal act by using the word war and applying it to the situation in Ukraine I doubt however that he'll be prosecuted for that he went on to say that it started as a military operation but as soon as this Alliance formed when the collective West became a
participant on the side of Ukraine it became a war for us everyone should understand this for their internal mobilization he said well Russia thinks we're at war with them Russia thinks Ukraine is simply a western puppet and if they think that they will not stop they will not stop until they have annihilated Ukraine or at least that's their objective even if they can't physically achieve it so perhaps when we should show them that we are willing to support Ukraine for whatever it takes not for
as long as it takes that could include NATO boots on the ground to protect unoccupied territories in Ukraine that could include the speeding up supply of f-16s and attacks and the massive scaling up of the supply of ammunition artillery pieces and new tranches of armored vehicles and air defense systems if if we don't do these things we don't just risk Ukraine we risk our own security our own future our own values and we risk our own credibility who is going to believe in our promises and our st
rength if we let a third rate terrorist power run by a psychopath with an economy that is the fraction of the size of the western economy if we let that kind of entity over EMP power a sovereign democracy a vibrant creative Society if you let this happen then our values will count for nothing
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