so Steve from Florida to Wisconsin now one of our Premier Battleground States they had their primary there last night what do we know this morning about Wisconsin as we headed to November that perhaps we didn't know yesterday yeah I well I think we know what we knew yesterday largely which is it's going to be a Battleground that could be decisive in this election and obviously the margins the last two elections and it's not just the last two elections outside of the Obama years the margins in Wi
sconsin have been close for a long time here so you could see Biden winning it by 610 of a percent here a margin of 20,000 in 2020 and I think the places to look on this map we'll be talking a lot about them between now and election day and certainly on Election night you look in these suburbs here of Milwaukee particularly wakasa County oaki County these are still big Republican suburbs but they've become a lot less Republican since Donald Trump came along and even between 16 and 20 this is a b
ig reason Trump won the state in 16 lost in 20 he didn't get as much out of oaki and wakaa counties in 2020 as he did in 16 Trump also in 2016 had big surges in counties that have midsize small cities in them places like Brown County where Green Bay is you know places like Lacrosse County where lacrosse is and the problem Trump had again in 2020 was he still won Brown County here but he didn't win it by as much as he did in 16 so he's got to improve he's got to stop the losses in places like the
suburbs stop the losses in places like Green Bay and he's actually got a claw back there some that he gave up in 2020 because the other problem Trump has is this one right here Madison State Capital University of Wisconsin it's growing in population it's getting more and more democratic and I think Democrats can squeeze even more out of here so we'll be talking certainly a lot about those Dynamics it's going to be fascinating to watch and Steve we mentioned at the top a push by Trump and some R
epublicans to change the Electoral uh vote distribution in Nebraska the critical Battleground state of Nebraska can you walk us through why that would be such a big deal this November yeah I mean I'll take you through a scenario here and I think you could see how this one electoral vote could actually be huge in this election so this is where things ended in 2020 306 232 Biden first thing to remember we had a census since then some State some states got more electoral votes some got less so if y
ou ran the election all over again and you got the exact same result in terms of the states it would now be 303 235 just on population shift Trump gains three electoral votes now we've been saying mathematically what is Trump's most efficient way to get from there to 2 second we'll just start working in order here of the states in terms of how close they were in 20 this was the closest 20 lost Arizona about 10,000 votes sake of argument what happens if Trump wins Arizona there you go he'd mooved
to 246 second closest Georgia just under 12,000 votes in 2020 if Trump were to get Georgia now he's up to 262 and this is where Nebraska comes in because right now with Arizona and Georgia Trump would need one of the big big 10 states that he lost Wisconsin Michigan or Pennsylvania but what happens if Nebraska changes this rule then another state comes into play and it's one that Republicans are very bullish on it's Nevada Nevada was blue and 16 and 20 but the margin's only about two points and
demographically Republicans think this is a state where they got a future so look what happens if Trump gets Nevada 268 right now but if Nebraska changes the rules congressional district there it is don't do it 269 269 and that's a reminder if it is a tie the house breaks the tie and it's not every member who votes it's every state delegation and the Republicans are expected to control more delegations than Democrats so the expectation is if it ever landed this way it's Advantage Trump Steve Co
ri haunting our nightmares for months to come with the 269 269 tie Steve thank you for breaking it all down for us you got it thanks for watching stay updated about breaking news and top stories on the NBC News app or follow follow us on social media
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