Geoff: House speaker Mike Johnson says a vote on Ukraine aid will come next week. It's time for a check-in with our Monday's political team. Amy and Tamara. We just heard governor Whitmer talk about the act supporting I. V.F. And we have seen reproductive rights as a major driver in this election season but this is additional action by Democrats on issues beyond abortion. Amy, what kind of impact does it have on a swing state like Michigan? >> The challenge right now that the Biden team has poli
tically is people who turned out for him in 2020, many of whom were inspired not so much byoe Biden but voting against Donald Trump are just not as engaged as trump supporters are. If the Biden campaign can give these voters, especially younger voters, a reason to show up and believe this election is important, even if they are not excited about him. In Michigan, for example, there was a big uncommitted vote I'm going to talk about, with the governor. There is rett since for these voters to show
up and vote affirmatively for Biden. Putting issues on the ballot like Nevada and Arizona, or making sure this is part of the conversation, it could help to motivate some of those voters to show up, even if they are not particularly excited about Biden. This is an issue that does give them an incentive to go to the polls. Geoff: Is this enough to bring out Democrats and independents that Democrats can preserve that blue law and we learned that abortion rights will be on the ballot in Florida in
November. >> This bill is like a technical correction. Several of the items are technical kreks and not seven months from now, wow, Democrats in our state passed this thing. We are so happy and we are going to vote for Joe Biden. That isn't the spillover effect I would expect to see. However as the discussion about reproductive rights happens all over the country, as the state of Florida is likely seeing in a more restrictive ban at the same time that there is now going to be a ballot measure o
n the ballot, this is going to be a conversation that is going to B be very live all over the country and the Biden campaign is going to make sure that democratic voters know what is going on all over the country. In terms of Florida, the Biden campaign six months ago, eight months ago, a year ago would say we are going to compete in Florida. They do not mention Florida. The fartherrest they go is looking to compete. Florida was always a stretch. I don't know adding a ballot measure is going to
be enough to overcome real organizational challenges that Democrats have had on the ground in Florida for a generation. Off: Speaker Mike Johnson is raising expectations for a vote on Ukraine funding even at the risk of Johnson potentially losing his speakership since Marjorie Taylor green has called for a floor vote on his leadership. Here's Johnson said to fox on an view. Marjorie is a friend and frustrate about the last appropriations bill. So am I. These are not the perfect pieces of legisla
tion that you and I and Marjorie would draft. With the smallest margin in U.S. History, sometimes we get legislation we don't like. And Democrats know when we don't stand together, then they have a better negotiation position. Geoff: Is that enough to nullify his right flank? >> I don't know that some of these folks are. The point is not about policy, this is really about the ability for many of these members just to show they can do it. And Johnson doesn't have any margin. There is a one-seat m
argin. A call to vacate the chair if it comes to the floor with a one-seat margin, that is courting disaster, one, this is not likely but possibility that actually a Democrat wins the speakership. But more than that, if we thought that the Mccarthy vote was drawn out or getting Johnson into that job was drawn out, just imagine how difficult this is going to be with one seat. What Johnson seems to be doing is mol filing conservatives, maybe we will put additional aspects into this legislation tha
t deal with liquefied natural gas and make it more of a loan. Let's use assets, Russian assets we have taken in this country and use those to pay for it. We know at the end of the day, he is going to need Democrats. This bill does not make it without Democrats. Without it is mollifying them or not. Geoff: You mentioned important innovation. House Republicans have blocked president Biden's request tore additional Ukraine aid for six months. How do you see this coming together? >> It's not clear y
et how it will come together. Johnson is -- he has taken on this remarkably pragmatic tone laying out the challenges that exist in divided government when you have a very narrow margin and not the kind of thing he would have said when he wasn't in leadership. But now he is in leadership. And he avoided a government shutdown and avoided a couple of other cliffs by innovating. Really not changing the underlying numbers or changing the thing they agreed to but by changing a deadline or rebranding f
unding the government. And that appears to be potentially what he is doing again. But as Amy says, in the ent, he would be very lucky if a majority of Republicans supported Ukraine funding or a broader national security supplemental. He would be very lucky if majority of Republicans would support it. He needs Democrats. Geoff: Let's talk about the 2024 race. President Biden, his campaign released a digital ad which is making a direct appeal to Nikki Haley supporters. Are there enough Republicans
in the middle who are winnable by president Biden or are they just Democrats? >> When you look at the group of people that voted for Haley in the primaries. They fall into three categories. Never ever going to vote for trump and there's the group I would like somebody other than Donald Trump but I'll probably vote for him. And I was trying to figure out how big that group that voted for Donald Trump in 2020 and don't want to vote for him again. The key for the Biden campaign isn't necessarily t
hey win them over but if the voters show up and skip the top of the ticket, vote third party or maybe not go to the polls at all, that's a vote for Biden because that's a vote trump got last time. Geoff: How does the Biden campaign see it? >> Nikki Haley got 25% of the vote. Not all of them. The Boyden campaign is aiming for addition rather than subtraction or keeping things where they are. Trump has in his rhetoric publicly said, if you wanted Nikki Haley, if you are not magga, you are not me.
The Biden campaign is targeting that ad to areas where Haley gt a lot of votes.
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