Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg Betz and a Baller. It's Wednesday, March 20th, we're back. Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast, I'm your host, Kyle Borgognoni, and I'm joined by Matthew Betz and Jason Moore. The boys are back. It's been forever, man. I feel like we even talked to Jason in two months on this show. Jason, what's new, man? What's new in life? I don't think it's been quite two months, but it's been a minute. I had to travel across the country for a while
and do some things, but I'm happy to be here, happy to be back and catch up on all this madness of the 2024 free agency. Jason, you were just checking up on your East Coast boys, because that's Betts and I. We're East Coast. I just want to ask you, I think you flew during time change, right when the day like I'd say- The day of, yeah. Because everything just off, you're like, oh, this is what life is like on this side of this country. It was wildly different. Like obviously, I know the time dif
ference. It's three hours, like whatever. But it was so weird, man, to be like, because I'm not usually an early riser, a go-getter, if you want to call it that. I'm not the early bird getting that worm. But when I went to this trip to New York, we were just packed, the schedule started early. So by the time five o'clock rolls around, I mean, I'm like, I've lived a life. I've lived an entire year in that day, and then I'm seeing messages from our company Slack channel that's like, what's our lun
ch order? I'm like, wait, you guys are still at work? And your order in lunch, what is happening? That's how Bets and I feel all the time, where sometimes we'll get asked a question, we're like, it's like 435 here. And it's a different life, but we like living it with you, Jason. So we're glad you're back. And Bets, you've had a couple of things go on, a couple of life happenings, a big weekend even. So any news you want to share with the foot clan? Oh, man. Well, my wife and I have decided that
two wasn't enough. So we're going to have a third. So we've known that news for a little while, obviously, but we did our big gender reveal this weekend with the family and some friends, which was a lot of fun. And it turns out I'm going to be having three girls at some point in my life, ages 13 to 15 at the exact same time. So I'll be going on a two year golf trip. Yeah, don't you worry about 13 and 15. Worry till they're 15 and 17. You're on crazy. I've got the just turned 15 year old daughte
r and one is a lot to handle my friends. So enjoy. Pray for me, Willis. Pray for me. Yeah, for sure. You're going to need the decade long lead up of prayer. You are hilariously outnumbered in your family. Oh, yeah. It's not just like, oh, we had twin girls early on. It's like, no, you're just done. You're an afterthought, Bets, in the family. It's me and the dog. Just the two of us. Yeah. No, it's great news. It's fun. We get to share a lot of stuff about our families in the company too. But we
are going to be talking about some of the aftermath of free agency and talk about team opportunity, which is the way that we describe teams and dynasty. They're kind of windows for contracts. When we talk about certain players, like, oh, they signed it through your contract. We're like, well, this is really just a two year deal. And so a lot of times when we look at team environments, team opportunity, it's easy to only look at this year, but forget things change so much. So we'll talk about tea
ms in free agency that change, for instance, the Chargers. This is a completely different team. This is a team that had Keenan Allen since 2013, Eckler and Mike Williams since 2017. And now it's just completely different, the identity. So we'll talk about the implications for dynasty, how you can look at it, and how you can move forward. All of the changes though are in the ultimate draft kit. You can go to udkplus.com and we're up today. I mean, Jason, you got to come back in style and know tha
t everything's taken care of. The teams are updated. The opportunities are updated. The contracts, they're all there. Yeah. That was the first thing I did when I got back. I took a look at the dynasty rankings because a lot of these moves, they make a big impact on specifically the dynasty rankings. Free agency, obviously everything's going to affect redraft because it's just what happens for me this year. But when you look at the contracts that are doled out during free agency, you can learn so
much and get an advantage as a dynasty player of like, oh, this guy got a four year deal. No, he didn't. This is going to be a two year deal. You don't know those slight edges. We've got some behind the scenes stuff that we're also adding. I'm working on an article right now. I've looked at every single, this is really boring, but I looked at every single Titan contract over the last decade. And I just want to tell you this, boys. You did? And you know what I found out, Jason? This is the most
Kyle research content of all time. You're a monster. What'd you find out, Kyle? I found out that teams are hilariously bad at drafting Titans. So bad that over the last decade, only 50% of those Titans drafted in the NFL draft even finished their rookie contract on their own team. It's not just do they get a second contract. They don't even finish after two or three years. Half of them are just on a different team or out of the league. So you have to think about that when you're drafting and you
're drafting a team. You're not just saying, oh, this is going to be their situation forever. It changes. So we have a lot of good stuff. UltimateDraftKit at udkplus.com. But before we get into the big stories, before we get into the big stuff, I want to find some under the radar stuff. I know there's people, they're scouring the waiver wire or they're trying to make some deals that are under the radar. It's one thing to say, hey, trade for Drake London right now, except the price has skyrockete
d in the last two weeks. I want to hear some names or some low key free agent signings and maybe some implications for dynasty. So Betz, I will let you start first with one of my boys, one of my former personal favorite players, Dirty Curtis Samuel. Dirty Curtis. Dirty Curtis, as we call him on the DFS show, a timer too. I'll be honest, I have a little bit of a bias towards Curtis Samuel. I've always liked him as a player. And when he came out of Ohio State years ago, which he's been in the NFL
for forever, but he's still only 27 years old. He was kind of a running back, played some slot wide receiver, gadget roll. And really he kind of, I think he's been good as an NFL wide receiver, but he has flourished when he's been given an opportunity to be what he was in college, which is kind of this manufacturer touch guy, a few carries here and there, some jet sweeps, you know, screens, that sort of thing. I think he's going to get that again in Buffalo because he goes to the bills on a thre
e year deal worth about $24 million, which is not nothing. And you look at this depth chart, they kind of need him, right? We've got Steph Diggs, who we talked about him at length on this show is starting to show some early signs of maybe he's not the same guy. Khalil Shakir is I think an okay, like NFL wide receiver three. I don't know that he's really going to level up and be a difference maker. They lose Gabe Davis and we liked all in Cacade, but there is a role for Curtis Samuel in this offe
nse. And you know, when he was with Joe Brady, who is the OC now back in their Carolina days, I pulled an old quote before it was called X on Twitter from 2020, October 15th. Joe Brady had this to say about Curtis Samuel. Any kind of success we have had is because of because of Curtis Samuel. So much of what he does doesn't show up on the stat sheet. I think Joe Brady loves this dude. I think you see that in the signing. I think this role is going to be legit for Curtis Samuel, who by the way, e
arned targets at a higher level than both of Johan Dotson and Terry McClaren last year in Washington. I'm terrified because I think we're all on the same page. I know yesterday Andy and Jason were also quietly saying they liked the signing. So this is really good, but we also know this is sometimes really bad. We're all in the same player, but it's a great situation, but I'm also just terrified. Yeah, I'm in on Curtis Samuel. He's not as old as he feels. He's been around the league a long time.
He's had several contracts. So he feels like he's should be 32. He's not. He's not past his prime. I think he's got enough left to give. And when you're on a great offense, we saw Gabe Davis be really relevant from game to game. Obviously very irrelevant sometimes, but Gabe Davis is not as good a player as Curtis Samuel. It'll be interesting the type of routes, like where they utilize him because early on in Carolina, it was kind of like this. We use him in gadget role, but he can win down the f
ield. And this team desperately does need players that can win down the field. We saw Dalton Kincaid become a reliable PPR target, but we also saw with Stefan Diggs. This just wasn't open deep or intermediate. So this team needs deep speed and he still has it at 27. So I don't know, would you be willing to Curtis Samuel or the two Oh three bets? Uh, two or three is probably where I just hold the pick, but I don't even know if you need to give that to get Curtis Samuel. I think I mean, at this po
int he's been around. There's so much name fatigue. It's like, uh, it's Curtis Samuel. You can mind even get him for like a late second, honestly, um, which I would do, but at two or three, I think I would, I would hold the pick. Okay. Hmm. Interesting. Where are you on? I know I'm definitely, I would, I would have the two Oh three, but I said interesting because I started to think, I don't think this is the type of player that you're trading a pick for. You know, it's like a second rounder. Oka
y. You'll probably get them, but you might not want to give it up. Um, the, the third rounder probably doesn't get him. Um, and so you're kind of stuck in the middle. If I, if I could trade any third rounder, uh, for Curtis Samuel, I'd do that in heartbeat. So I was thinking like, what's the type of player, you know, maybe you try to get out of a bust, you know, and then I started thinking about my own team and a team we're going to be, we're going to be talking about this player later this epis
ode, but I've got trailing perks on my roster. He's, you know, he's still young. Kyle, I think you've talked about him as like, he's still, what's, what's the phrase you've used with him where like you're holding hope or he has a pulse. Like he's telling me there's a chance. He's not dead yet. You know, and it's like, I feel like I could get Curtis Samuel plus for trail on Birks in a dynasty league and Curtis Samuel's, he's just going to be better than trail on Birks. So, um, if I could get, may
be I'll get a, a, a three or a two back and, uh, see if I can swing a deal like that. Yeah. I have Curtis Samuel in a league in a dynasty league. And it's like, he's a great hold right now. I can maybe get some flex weeks out of him. But, uh, Jason, who do you have under the radar pick and, and really way more guaranteed money than I thought they were going to get. Yeah. I've actually got a couple names here, depending on how under the radar versus how just like important it's going to be super
under the radar would be James. Excuse me. Um, the black one under the radar would be James Winston. Um, goes and signs with the Cleveland Browns. This is, uh, DeSean Watson, whatever. He's paid enough money. He's going to be the starter. He didn't make it through this season. I don't know that he does next season, but it's nice to have a competent backup. Even if you're just looking at like, Oh, I like a Mario Cooper. Well, I like a Mario Cooper probably more with James Winston than I do with,
uh, you know, than I do with Voldemort. So he, he's interesting. Devin Singletary to me is interesting. He's always just been this cast out. Nobody ever wants, uh, no team wants in the NFL. No fantasy manager wants. He just quietly gets it done and scores a decent amount of fantasy points from time to time. And now he looks like he could be the dude replacing, you know, say quads. So that's important. But the one when, when I look at like the free agency winners, the guys who hit the market and
the next season, they are great for fantasy. It's usually when they signed again for the same team that they were on and had a little success in versus the splash, the big deals, which are the ones that are changing teams. That's good. That gets all the publicity. But the doctor Dalton Schultz going back to CJ Stroud, where he was very relevant, um, on, uh, this is the money that you were talking about that you were surprised with. Um, he gets a, uh, three year, 36 million, 23 and a half million
guaranteed deal to resign with the Texans. It is for dynasty purposes, really a two year deal. There's almost no dead cap in the third year. They could cut him. Um, obviously if he's doing great, they would play it out. But for the most part, uh, it's a two year deal where you're going to have a very relevant fantasy player and there's not, people aren't fighting over themselves to get Dalton Schultz. You know, they'll, they'll give up anything right now for Trey McBride and, um, you know, if y
ou can get your hands on Sam LaPorte of the future of the position, but like Dalton Schultz is going to be, he's going to be getting it done. He's going to be on championship winning teams as he goes out there and, you know, scores eight points a week. And then when he gets a touchdown ends up, you know, with, with a nice 14 point game in that, in the fantasy playoffs, uh, with CJ Stroud dealing. So he is, I think, uh, probably going to be undervalued. Yeah. And it's not a sexy player on your ro
ster, but he had a stretch, I believe it was like seven or eight weeks where he was a top three tight end. It wasn't just like, oh, he's giving you, you know, top 10 numbers where you're just kind of floating like he can have those spike weeks and it's an offense we're clearly buying into. So I like that one. Also, maybe some of your best nickname work, uh, over the years. I like Dr. I love the doctor. It's just, yeah. That is you too. Dr. Schultz, baby. I mean, it's just low hanging fruit. It's
good. It is. It's good stuff. Um, I'm going to throw out under the radar signing and what it means cause DJ Dallas went to the Cardinals and you might say, Oh, cool. I need to scoop him up. This is signing to me says this is really, really good for James Conner. DJ Dallas is three year deal about 2.4 million guaranteed, but he's basically going to be a special teams kick returner. He's a jack of all trades, but master of none running back. Like you don't have to worry about DJ Dallas taking awa
y work from James Conner. And I think it's interesting with Conner because at his age, he's 28.8 years old. He's actually playing out his full contract, which is not something you usually see with running backs. This is the third year of a deal that he signed in 2022. Uh, this team could have moved on, but the way that he played down the stretch was incredible. His roster bonus just hit a couple of days ago. So he's on this team, he's getting some awesome bonuses too in his contract. His cap hit
s 8.9 million. Like they're paying this guy to be the RB one. And you saw last year down the stretch, he was a wrecking ball. That final five game stretch, 22.6 fantasy points per game, 24 opportunities per game. I mean, he was just incredible. And the rest of the depth chart is nobody's Michael Carter, uh, DeMar Cotto. So I guess what I'm, what I'm saying is if I have James Conner on my roster, you can look at free agency and say, be excited. Could they add somebody in the draft? Maybe, but the
y're paying him as if he's going to be the guy for one more year. So I would be very happy with James Conner as my RB two. And if he, let's just say James Conner, you know, he's going to miss some games. It's kind of what he is, but he's also a piece at the trade deadline. If he's giving you fringe RB one top 15 numbers that you're going to be able to trade away to a team that says, I need a running back down the stretch for the playoffs. So it's just wild to have a running back. That's 29 that
you can look at in your roster and go, sweet, let's roll with it again. So there I, I, I traded for James Conner in a Dino junior league, Jason three years ago and I thought I would have a one year run and it's just kind of kept going. So, uh, it's, uh, I'm excited about it. That happens every now and then with, with certain running backs. Even wide receivers, um, you know, you trade them late in your career and you think you're getting just one thing and turns out you, you got a, you got a heft
ier bag than you thought you received. You might be seeing that with Derek Henry now for the next couple of years. If you traded for him, you know, a year or two ago, you thought, you know, two years ago was like, uh, okay, I'm going to get, I know he's an expiring asset, but whatever. And then next thing you know, four years later, you're like, I have a really enjoyed having a lot of fantasy points. So it's, it's same thing with mixing. It's like, I could have said last year, like, okay, you go
t one more year relevance than he signs a three year extension. You're like, oh, sweet. I have some more life with this player and in dynasty, we're just grabbing it. Anybody that can give us running back fantasy points. So, uh, let's move on. talent or opportunity. We're going to talk about some free agency signings and kind of ask the question. This player clearly is talented. We've seen them show out for fantasy, but the opportunity in front of the team opportunity, the way the team is functi
oning, that's kind of the bigger question here. So we're going to move from a couple of big name signings. We're going to first go with bets and then that will kind of segue into one of Jason's that I know will be an interesting one. So bets, why don't you start off with the Jaguars and then we'll kind of see how that fits in with the Titans because Calvin Ridley is at the center of this conversation. Yeah, that's really what it comes down to is the surprise that Calvin Ridley is not going back
to the Jaguars, which everyone just assumed, okay, when the, when the newly year started, they would just get the deal done and let's move on. And then out of nowhere, the Titans come in and give him $92 million with a ton of guaranteed money, a fat bag of money to be their guy. And there's ripple down effects, obviously for the Titans, which I know we'll talk about in a minute, but also for the Jaguars, because it kind of felt like they had this plan in place. You get Calvin Ridley back. He's s
till got Christian Kirk. You've got Evan Ingram. They signed Gabe Davis to maybe be the Zay Jones replacement because they could have saved money by moving on from Zay Jones. Now I'm not sure they really want to. They might have to hold Zay Jones. But what it comes down to is they lose, I think, and this is a different conversation for fantasy because I don't see him as a wide receiver one ever again in his career. But like for NFL teams, they clearly valued him as maybe this wide receiver one o
n their team. They lose that and neither like, okay, what do we do? Are we just going to keep Zay Jones and roll it that way? Do we take a wide receiver in the NFL draft, which this is a good class. So you'd be excited about that. But there's a lot of ripple down effect because when you look at the guys they have like Gabe Davis doesn't really earn targets at a high level. Christian Kirk earns them at a wide receiver to level and Evan Ingram earns them as well. But they're all like really shallo
w eight out type stuff for Evan Ingram. So this team is lacking a piece of their offense. But to me says, what does this mean for Trevor Lawrence? Because Trevor Lawrence was supposed to be. What are you talking about? I know. I know. Gabe Davis. Gabe Davis is there to rescue Trevor Lawrence. I don't know what you're saying. Did you miss that they signed Gabriel Davis? I saw that. I'm excited for his two weeks a year that he's incredible and the rest of them that he disappears. But I'm kind of w
orried about just the Trevor Lawrence mismatch in terms of maybe where he's valued in dynasty and where like the truth is because when he came out, it was the Caleb Williams where it's like, you can't miss. He's going to be incredible. You want this guy is the 101 and super flex. He's going to be great. Now granted, he got off to a rough start, obviously with the clown show that happened in the Urban Meyer era has the quarterback eight finished the year after. But then this year regressed a litt
le bit, right? And it's like, okay, is he ever going to be a top five guy? I don't think so. Top six. Maybe if he gets lucky on touchdowns one year, but you know, Marvin just put out in the, in the dynasty pass, one of his dynasty life cycle articles, which are just incredible looking at quarterbacks. And it's like, these guys don't really hit a ceiling if they're ever going to do it. Like they usually don't do it after age like 26, 27, 28 somewhere in there. So I know it's early in his career,
but like it's kind of now or never for Trevor Lawrence in my opinion for fantasy, in terms of where he's valued. So if anyone out there in their league with this move of losing out on Calvin Ridley to the Jaguar still kind of used Trevor Lawrence as, you know, a bona fide top six dynasty quarterback I would love to sell at that price. And last year, you know, if you were in super flex leagues, he was one of those players like, Oh, at the end of the first round, you need to get one of the elite q
uarterbacks, you know, one of the top seven. And this team's just wildly inefficient. Like they're among the league leaders and like plays and everything else. But then when you look at what they did, what they accomplished, like it was really upsetting, not just like in the passing game, but also in the running game. If ETN didn't get a touchdown, then it was just a terrible week. And then you look at this team is like inefficient player Gabe Davis. Zay Jones has always kind of been a boomer bu
s guy. So I worry about this team from like a top down perspective, being able to put up enough just pure touchdowns for us to care and to spread it out because the ball is spread out so much. So yeah, I think they need to take a wide receiver, but they've also invested so much money over the last couple of years in it that from a team building perspective, it doesn't make sense. So I'm with you. I think Lawrence probably belongs like QB Tennis in dynasty where I think people want him to still h
ave that top five outcome. And at this point, if you haven't done it, you know, within three seasons, it's really hard to jump in there again. So Jason, do you feel the same way? No, I feel 100. I think I've felt that way for an entire year where Trevor Lawrence is a capable quarterback. He is not a star. I don't see him ever leveling up to be a an MVP of the league, a fantasy winner, you know, who's going to go out there and throw for 40 touchdowns. One of these seasons, like I've just never re
ally been super impressed. Obviously coming out of college, he was great for a collegiate prospect. I don't think he's ever taken that level up that you hoped he would take. And we've seen enough. We've seen him with the weapons. I don't believe that he will be a superstar ever again. And the player that I always struggle with right now, because he still does have draft capital that matters and a career guaranteed. Like he'll help whether he's good or not. He's going to play for a long time. He'
ll get a second contract. He could get, he could have, you know, is he could lose his legs and then get a second contract. Like, you know what I mean? Like there's no chance that he's out of the league unless he retires. Whereas Brock Purdy, I think Brock Purdy scores more fantasy points. Like I, and I really struggle when I was setting my dynasty startup rankings, I'm like, man, who would I rather have? Because there's much more security in Trevor Lawrence, much more. Brock Purdy still does hav
e a path to have a short career just because he was the seventh throughout the pick. I know that's not fair and it sounds stupid, whatever. But when it comes to like, okay, they both play 17 games this year. I think Brock, I don't think it's even close. I think Purdy scores a ton more fantasy points than Trevor Lawrence. So that's a tough ranking for me. So if you can trade Trevor Lawrence, whose value is clearly much, much, much higher than it should be and get another quarterback, a young quar
terback, draft picks, plus I would be all over that. I was actually just looking, you know, in the app, you know, the UDK Plus app. I mean, it's just, this thing is sweet. I'm looking at the rankings and I'm like, okay, let's just do a little name, you know, which one would you rather have? Trevor Lawrence or Tua in dynasty? Oh gosh. Give me, give me Lawrence who's going to run a little bit more. All right, Lawrence or, or Dak? Dak. Yeah, I would rather have Dak even though Dak's 30. Okay. Jorda
n Love, I assume we're all on Jordan Love over Trevor Lawrence? Yep. What a wild world. That's crazy. Yeah, that's kind of where he lives is kind of that Tua Purdy-ish range, but like, I mean, I would try to- I have Trevor Lawrence as my quarterback 14. Okay. So if he's being valued as like a top eight guy, then get value for him. Yeah. All right. Well, I'll hop in with the next team opportunity because it does segue right there. I want to talk about the Titans who you, you might be old enough t
o remember the Titans were not willing to do a four year, $100 million deal with AJ Brown, young budding superstar. Can't do that. No. They saved $8 million and got 29 year old Calvin Ridley for four years, $92 million. I talked about this on the main fantasy footballers episode that just came out, but if you haven't seen the press conference where Calvin Ridley is introduced to his city, his new city and asked why the Titans, it is the grossest answer I've ever seen talking about how, you know,
well, they're trying to win and he didn't want to be there. He wanted to be with the Jaguars, but the money was nice. It's like, oh my goodness gracious. So when I look at the team opportunities, when I stat people out for the ultimate draft kit, you know, most of the work we're doing, we are, we don't need to overcomplicate things. The quarterback matters a lot. The quarterback is the top down approach of a team success. And so you've got a lot of really important names on the Tennessee Titans
right now. They signed Calvin Ridley. They signed Tony Pollard. They have Deandre Hopkins. Tajé Spears was the due hotness. Traylon Birx, like that, that is a five pack of, you know, not, not every team out there has five, you know, perceived valuable fantasy names. That's not even naming Chig, you know? We don't even have to go there. Right. The goat. The goat, Chicka-Con quote. And so who is the one on this team at the wide receiver position? Is it Calvin Ridley? Who's the new hotness gets th
e money? Is it Deandre Hopkins, who, you know, last year, a lot of his metrics looked incredible. 28.8% target share. That was tied with Puka for 10th. 53.8% of the team's receiving touchdowns. That was the second highest percentage in the NFL. The Dominator rating for Hopkins was 42%. Number two amongst wide receivers. So is it Hopkins or is it Ridley? Because Hopkins, sorry. Hopkins is a better wide receiver. Like Hopkins is better than Calvin Ridley. He's better at earning targets. And so Rid
ley has been very good in the NFL and in fantasy, but he's really a two. He was a two behind Julio. He might have had the most targets for the Jaguars, but he felt like a two there. And now he'll be the two for the Titans. So the quarterback throwing the ball on this team is one where you have, what do you believe about Will Levis? Does he have a bright future? I mean, you saw that Atlanta game when he first came out. Four touchdowns in that first game made me look silly because I was like, Will
Levis can't see pressure. He's not that good. Bad offensive line. And then I was like, well, okay, maybe he is fully legit. And then he has four passing touchdowns the rest of the season. And was like, yeah, that was the guy. I think Will Levis does have some talent to him. I personally, I like him more than Bryce Young. I don't think Will Levis is a complete and utter bust without a path forward. But I do bet against Will Levis. His ability to see pressure is Mount Rushmore level bad. I just,
it is entertaining to watch, but like the same way that it would be entertaining to go back in time to Rome and go to the Coliseum and watch a man kill a man because you're like, oh, that dude just took a pin to the face. It's, it's brutal. I was going with that at first. When I, when I was watching college tape of Will Levis, it was like, how does he not see the guy right in front of him? And I don't know. Maybe he's just tough. Maybe he's totally seasoned. He's like, no problem. Look how big a
nd strong I am. But you saw some of this, like 45% of his drop backs. He was under pressure. That was the second highest rate the NFL. You know, he just, he had a really bad problem, you know, when it came to taking sacks, fourth most sacks. And I think that's not going away. I don't believe that that will be changed. I don't think the Titans' Office of Line is critically improved. So if you've got a quarterback taking sacks, not able to move the ball enough, and now you're splitting targets wit
h all these fantasy relevant assets, I find myself really being out on the Titans. Now it's worth noting one of our, one of our, you know, things we look for in fantasy to find like the, the diamonds in the rough is ambiguous situations. You know, oh, we don't know who the Widersteaver one is for this team. We don't know how Tajais Spears will be involved versus Tony Pollard. So their ADPs will slip and maybe there could be real value here. But personally, the way that I look at this roster is I
'm going to bet against the Titans because I'm going to bet against Will Levis. Yeah. The volatility game to game from Levis, like you mentioned, four touchdowns, one game, four touchdowns the rest of the season, I think that's going to be in play, which is really fun in one game sample size in DFS. But it's not fun when you're playing and you're hoping for someone to be in a weekly starter or a QB2 in a Super Flex Dynasty League. It'd be different if this team drafted a wide receiver, which we
thought they were going to do seventh overall. Instead, they use the money on Ridley, an aging player who, you know, another one of those players that looks really, really good on like Twitter or TikTok when you get like separation. And you know, that was the thing last year in training camp. You remember the Jaguar? It's like, we've never seen a player move like this and get separation. Oh yeah. It's, it doesn't work when you're playing zone schemes in the NFL because people are just sitting in
zones. They're actually letting you get by because you're running to another zone. And Will Levis was historically bad against zone last year. And something that's really weird about him too, which is even more volatile is that he chucks it deep at an insane rate. And like 22% of his throws against zone coverage went deep. The next closest person in the league was 13% Russell Wilson. Like he just basically said like, I don't know what to do. I'm going to chuck it deep. And I don't know if this,
these are the type of players at this stage in their career, Hopkins, Ridley, that are going to get behind defenses in the same way. So if you're bad against zone and you have aging players, it's just a bad combination. And so in dynasty, you know, with Ridley, like he was on our trade away for our list in the dynasty past because we just said we just didn't see it. But I don't know, Betsy, am I overthinking this? Because there is an outcome where Levis levels up and this is good. But I think w
e're just taking history and taking, you know, sacks and all that other stuff and saying this way is pretty heavily. Yeah, real, real quick on that note on the positive side, the positive side is, you know, you saw some things like the fact that, you know, he was 51st and past success rate with 37.1%. That was the same as rookie year Josh Allen. And he's got the arm talent and Josh Allen needed to get Stefan Diggs. And now you get Calvin Ridley and Hopkins. If Will Levis levels up to be really g
ood, there is a positive outcome. Yeah, that's that's the case you make when you try to trade in the way. Did I convince you? No. I'm a firm believer and we get in trouble with this stuff because when you see it happen once you just think, oh, that's going to happen again. When you, when we talk about the rookie quarterbacks this year in redraft, it's like, well, Cedar Stratus did it. So like, yeah, there's a path. Trying to spot the outliers is going to get you in trouble a lot. And history has
shown quarterbacks that take sacks. It's a sticky metric quarterbacks that struggle against zone. It's pretty, pretty sticky. So I'm a firm believer in once the players show you who they are, I'm not saying that they need to be, you know, incredible in the first year, but they need to show you signs. I didn't really see it with Levis and I'm a firm believer that it's probably not going to work out. And I could see this signing in a year, year and a half. You look back and we're like, can you im
agine that Titans giving Calvin really four years, 92 million dollars? I think it's terrible signing at this point in his career. Like you said, you're sitting right there, take neighbors, take Odunze, whatever one you want, just reset the market, pay someone cheaper. I don't think he has it at this point in his career, Calvin, really to be a one. I think Hopkins is the one there. And so I'm with you and just trying to say I'm lower on the Titans, trying to trade away really on this contract if
someone's hyped about it, if I can in my leagues. But I've tried and there's not a huge market in the leagues I play in for Calvin really currently. I will say this team is much more marketable and much more fun than it was, you know, last year where it was, he tried to play hero ball, he got hurt. This is a different team, different coaching staff. The offense is just going to look different and the offensive line is going to need a major overhaul because it's been really, really bad. But yeah,
I'm worried about the Titans. I mean, right now I picked them fourth in the division. I'm assuming most of us would. Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. Okay. We're going to take a quick break before we go into some Falcons talk. I just need you guys to, to calm me down. I am hot and heavy guys, but I need you to talk me down because I'm trying to approach this as somebody who does this for my job, not someone who's an Atlanta Falcons lifer. Is that okay? You can call me out. Yeah, yeah, yeah, we wil
l. We will call you out if you're being stupid. Okay. I know you feel that way. We love doing that. I love that. Thank you. This is going to be great. Yes. Thank you. So, you know, we've talked a lot about the free agency signings. We talked about Kirk Cousins, but I want to talk about this from an offensive approach and how this could work and how this could affect the pieces beyond just this year in dynasty because I like, we need to call this team a different team because the Atlanta Falcons
last three years were a different entity. They were playing a different game than anybody else in the league. Okay. So Atlanta lined up in 11 personnel. So three wide receivers or more on first downs, just 14% of the time. Like that was the lowest in the NFL and it's one of the lowest marks the last six years. Nobody else was running an offense like the Falcons last year to give you a good number. Drake London ran 60 routes last year where there were more than two wide receivers on the field. 60
routes. That's like criminally hilariously low. So when we look at the Falcons and we look at all their metrics and everything else you compare, you just throw everything out the window because they were running the ball on first downs 58% of the times. No, they weren't. Did they really run it 58% on first down? Yes. That was their rush rate on first down. Oh, Arthur. Got us there. Arthur, you're going to get them. Oh, man. Guys, I mean, there was two wide receivers out in the field 85% of the
time. So just everybody knew this is what they're going to do. This is the formation. You got to get John O'smith on the field, brother. I guess because it's frustrating because the Falcons had certain success and the worst part about being a Falcons fan is they were actually in a lot of games. I don't know if people realize this. They were just always just close enough to kind of like make sure that they were close enough to let you down. Oh, that's the story. The amount of text they get from K
yle on Sunday afternoons that was like, why do I do this to myself? It was just on repeat every week. I would train my kids and say, you see that we're winning right now? Do not, like don't hold on to that at all. Just expect that you're going to let it down. So all we need to realize is that they were running a crazy amount. I mean, guys, they averaged 35 passing yards per game in sets with more than three wide or three or more wide receivers. 35. He was close, it was 117. Nobody was running th
is offense in the league. It was JV. So the reason why Kirk Cousins makes a lot of sense is because he's been really good against Zone Coverage his whole career. And this system they're getting is a Ram system, right? It's Zach Robinson. It is somebody that approaches things very much and Chomick Vey has led the league in this for years and years and years and three wide receivers sets. So we have to look at this team and their small sample size and say, what do they do in three wide receiver se
ts? And Drake London has been really, really good in it. And Bijon Robinson has been really awesome when he did run in it. 5.8 yards per carry when three wide receivers were on the field. So let's take all of that numbers about the Falcons and then just focus in on Dynasty. Bijon Robinson, with Kirk Cousins signing, did that affect you at all between the Bijon and Breeze debate? So it's funny because I think that the whole offense changing, having Kirk Cousins come, everything is good for Bijon
here. But I also think that the offseason has been so good for Breeze. The problems with their offensive line have, I mean, they went hard after offensive line this offseason that doesn't always guarantee change, but I can guarantee it's not going to change if you don't go hard after it. So I mean, I was already Bijon over Breeze by a slight hair, but I think they've both just risen for me. Yeah, they're both locked in. You can have it whatever order you want. I think I side with Bijon just one
last year into the contract. Not that it really matters a ton, but just if you're making me flip a coin, I think for that reason I would lean Bijon. Yeah, 22.1 years old. I think I lean there. And we talked about this. This is a comment we made over and over again with Bijon having a really high floor for four to five years is rare in dynasty. I think people are like, oh, you know, he's only RB nine. Like if you got like four or five top 10 RB seasons, like you would be really excited for where
you got him. You just didn't get a top, you know, top three outcome like you thought you're going to get in redraft, but the floor is really, really high. Kirk does check it down a lot too. So you're not just going to like the targets aren't just going to go away. Let's focus on London because I hate, hate, hate that his redraft ADP went up in the last two or three weeks. Andy mentioned on the show and I, after the show, I messaged him angrily. He said, why did you have to mention that man's nam
e? And then Kirk Cousins gets traded or signs with the team. Jason, you boosted him up pretty high to now being a wide receiver one in dynasty startup rankings. He's not even 23. So kind of back that up because I'm with you, but I feel like I can't speak on Falcons things. Yeah, you can't because you are biased. I don't give two farts about the Falcons. So I can speak, I can speak to it. Look, you can't just say, Kirk Cousins made Justin Jefferson, right? Because Justin Jefferson is maybe the be
st wide receiver in the league. If not, he's one of the three up there for debate. And he was great when Kirk Cousins went down when he was healthy on the field. The but on the on the other side of that coin is we know that if a wide receiver is very talented, if he is a top five wide receiver, that Kirk Cousins can support massive fantasy production. He will go to that star over and over and over and over and over the way you want in fantasy football. They've seen this for years with Matthew St
afford when he had Calvin Johnson or if he had Cooper Cup and then he finds Puckett's like, I'm just going to keep doing the play that works. And for fantasy purposes, that's great. Drake London film wise has looked outstanding. A lot of the metrics of like percentage based stuff has been outstanding. It's just total volume wasn't there because of the offense that you just described. If you believe the Drake London is a great wide receiver, then you should also believe that he will be a great fa
ntasy asset because with this offense, the Ram scheme coming in and a quarterback that we know will exploit an advantage over and over and over and over, then he should have monstrous target numbers at the end of the year, monstrous yardage, the touchdowns and just be a, he should be a top 10 fantasy wide receiver this year. Yeah. There's, there's about four or five things you can connect of saying cousins is good against, you know, zone coverage. Cousins is good with three wide receivers on the
field. The Rams were good. This is the Ram scheme. You know, London, he has a 2.47 yards per outrun when three wide receivers are on the field. Like all of that should connect together. And yet I know how fantasy football works sometimes and there's all these other scenarios that you have to throw in. But everything is pointing to Drake London blowing up. Hopefully there is a window where you got to trade for him. But yeah, he's, he should be a wide receiver one in dynasty leagues. I want to mo
ve on to pits because we still don't know about his fifth year option. That's a conversation that's coming up. He's only 23 and a half and I feel like we should be in like fantasy people should be in based on where the price is. But you know, so that's what do you think based off how you said that? I think that's, that's how everyone feels like you say it, but you kind of like tail off at the end with a question mark. I think I made them go pits again. You know, it's, he's really interesting cas
e because in year one, he kind of checked the box right a thousand yards with Matt Ryan just didn't have the touchdown since like this guy can clearly play. He's good. He's super young, still one of the youngest tight ends in the league, even though he's been in the league for a couple of years now. And then you had just a couple of seasons where it was okay, not great, but last year really was I think a year that you need to have a lot of context around. Obviously the Arthur Smith thing is a di
saster for everyone, but he had an knee injury that was more than just the MCL surgery that did linger well into the season. So I do think that the talent is still there. I still think that, you know, he's the guy that we saw coming out of Florida, the guy that we saw as a rookie with a thousand yards. And you look at the other guys on the depth chart, Drake London is going to be the alpha, no questions about it, but Ron Dammler, we know what he is like a gadget guy that might get you two target
s a game, whatever. Darnell Mooney, I think is a good wide receiver. I think he's better for the NFL, but he's not a target earner at a high level. So if Kyle Pitts is the second read in this offense, Kirk Cousins has shown us he can support that. So I'm in on Kyle Pitts again. I am ready to get hurt. What could absolutely go wrong? Read in six is where we have him in our rankings, Jason. Is he someone that you're like trying to actively acquire right now or because there's buzz? It's like, okay
, well now the price has gone up because it was criminally low this offseason. I'm not actively trying to acquire him because well, I'm not actively trying to acquire him because I am a coward. And once you say fool me, you know, four times, this is like a hold on to him. I will say that there are certain situations. I chose to put him above Travis Kelsey, for instance, in my Dynasty startup rankings. Kelsey is an interesting conversation on his own. Like Andy still has Kelsey as his Titan three
in Dynasty. I think a lot of people view it. He says for Titan and I think this is appropriate for any, you know, Dynasty, we take too long of view sometimes. He says he plays the Titan position in Dynasty one year at a time. It's basically startup rankings because that's, that's all that matters for success is can you, can this guy score fantasy points this year? Don't worry about the long term value of Titans. But my point in saying all that is if I had Kelsey, I would go poke. I just, I woul
d be willing personally. I'd go make the offer just one for one and say, Hey, maybe I'll reset. Maybe I'll reset from the, you know, the 34 year old to the 23 year old and get an 11 years, but obviously it's a risk. I'm not trying to go acquire him. I am willing to if it is a fair deal and I don't think you're getting fair deals right now. Yeah. That makes sense. All right, Bets, why don't you move on and go over to Green Bay and talk to us about the running backs. Yeah. Weird. I think I'm going
to fall out because there was rumblings like this team's probably not bringing AJ Dillon back. They've got, you know, Aaron Jones, who was still pretty efficient down the stretch last year, especially in the playoffs. No, maybe they just run it back for one more year and then kind of figure it out next year. And then out of nowhere, Josh Jacob signs a four year deal worth $48 million. But did he really? Because he did not. And that's the tricky thing with this situation is that that's what was
reported. The actual deal is basically one year, 14.8 million, and there's three option years for the Packers. So if it goes well, I expect him to be there. If it doesn't go well, I don't expect him to be there next year. And what's really interesting about that situation is right now, there's a ton of hype on Josh Jacobs because of the landing spots, good offense. We've seen running backs in this offense do very well over the years. And I get it. He's a workhorse who can touch the ball a ton. B
ut he was terrible last year. Like straight up one of the worst running backs in football when you look at the numbers, 56 in yards per carry, 60th in yards after contact per attempt, 54th in explosive rush rate, and 51st in missed tackles forced per attempt. And what's wild to me is those numbers are almost identical to AJ Dillon of last year. And they brought AJ Dillon back. So you need Josh Jacobs to have not just the volume, but also I think be way more efficient. And if he is inefficient, I
do think that they'll still give him opportunities. So I think for like a redraft, it's kind of a different conversation. But I think right now everyone's like, oh, four years with the Packers with Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs to the moon, he's so good. What if he's just terrible again, and they move on and now you're stuck again wondering, where are we with Josh Jacobs? So I think for me, I love this call. I love it so much. Firmly on, you need to trade Josh Jacobs right now before things potentia
lly go south. I think you can get a lot for him. I am on the exact opposite side. All right. Let's have the debate. Okay. Tell us why. So one, who was throwing the rock? Wait, sorry. Tell us why you're so stupid. Okay. I can do that, definitely. Who was throwing the rock for this Raiders team? Because it really was an offense, one that was stunted, right? Like the first part of the year was Josh McDaniels, then they said, we hate you. And so then they moved on. Then it was Aiden O'Connell for pr
etty much from week, I think it was week. 10 on. And you're getting an offense where one, he's not throwing the ball a ton. And he was terrible against zone coverage. So a lot of the looks were bad. I mean, I know Jacobs basically took off what the last four or five weeks, like, I'll be back next week. Same time decision. I'll be back next year. It's just, I can look at his efficiency metrics and say in the offense he was in, it was really, really, really bad for him. And yet I can look at this
Packers' Offense and say, okay, we love the efficiency last year. We saw what Aaron Jones did down the stretch at 29 year old running back, just catch fire. In the playoffs, they really went far. So I think he fits this offense. He's still at the age where I can acquire him. And I'm just saying that because I just traded for him last week and I feel totally fine. But my price was not that high. Did you trade him before? Was the signing? No, I traded for him after the signing. Okay, what did you
trade? Tell us the trade deets. It's a complicated deal because we... Just tell us the deets. You're in this league, Jason. I didn't pay. I was in New York. Okay. We got a first Josh Jacobs and Kurt Cousins for Jerry Judy, a second round pick, and we swapped first. Okay, yeah, that's fine. I told you. I told you. Okay, that's fine. I now realize who you traded with. That's why I was... Okay. Well, if your league has... Can you say that Josh Jacobs has two years of fantasy relevance, top 15-ish?
I'm not saying he's not going to be relevant. 15. Can he be a top 50 in the next two years? Sure. But there are be 15. I need that. There are be 13 to the RB 18. Doesn't matter. Those guys are not giving you massive upside that the Bijans can, the Breeze can. And right now, the Boszlin Josh Jacobs is this is going to work out. No questions asked. He's a rock solid RB1 asset for Dynasty and I do not see it because the contract is misleading. So I'm just saying there is a path where it doesn't wor
k. And if you want to strike while the iron's hot, I think it's a very savvy move. Okay, what would... If he's bad this year, if he's bad, let's just play that out. This is the two options, right? He's great and then obviously you've got a good asset. But I don't think the world exists where he's really bad this year, but you get multiple years of fantasy production. You could be at the end here. It is possible range of outcomes in a likely fashion that if he's still very inefficient and ineffec
tive as he was last season, that then he's basically his career's over because of the way the contract's structured. Okay, so what could you actually get for him? We'll take my trade aside. But like one, is he worth the 106? Are you saying we'll trade that for him? Yeah. I think so. Yeah, I mean non-super flex, I think you might be able to get a 106. I would certainly rather have the 106. Okay, I think that's where he's appropriately valued. We didn't have to pay that. But I think I just run up
against it with Dynasty running back. So I'm just like, there's not many dudes you can acquire in general. It's really hard to be able... You're not going to get Breeze. You're not going to get Bijan if I have him. It's really hard to get Jameer Gibbs. So when you get this second tier of player that you can find a window, then I just want to acquire those players, but maybe that's just my roster. The James Connors of the world have saved me over the years. So... And I will say one last quick thi
ng, Kyle. I want to show... Do you have the nasty boy drop? Can you smash that if you do? Thank you. Not technically under contract, but I just want to point out Emmanuel Wilson is a name to pick up on your Dynasty waiver wire. They resigned AJ Dillon to a one-year deal worth $2 million. He was absolutely horrific last year. And we just talked about what if it doesn't work for Josh Jacobs? Emmanuel Wilson made the roster last year as a UDFA. And Matthew Barry wrote about him in his interesting t
hings he heard at the Combine. Team really likes him. So I would not be surprised if he makes the roster. And he's a guy who carves out the RB2 role in a good offense. So pick up Emmanuel Wilson if he's on your waiver wire. Yeah. And he won't show up as under contract, but because he's exclusive rights, he's going to be a packard snitcher. So let's take a quick break. We'll be right back. You mentioned before the break the exclusive rights. Have we ever talked about how absurd that genre of free
agent is? You must play for this team. It's prison. They're in prison. Why do we call them a free agent? It's basically, all right, you can negotiate a contract with us or you can't play football. You can like live like you can't you can negotiate a contract with only us or you're not allowed to play. It's like that is how did how did that ever come about? How did that fell? Be like, oh guys, guys, come here. I got a good one for these undrafted free agents. Check, check out what we're going to
be able to do. Oh man, it is wild with undrafted free agents because if you do hit, like if you do, you're able to negotiate contracts at a different level if you're not exclusive rights. And then eventually it can be the Austin Ecklers or the Phillip Lindsey's of the world, but it's so rare. But yeah, no, he's going to be a packer. Speaking of packer world, let's move to the bears, Jason, because a lot of things have happened. They got a really good wide receiver who's about to be 32 on the te
am now. But the whole ecosystem, his team is now clearly Caleb Williams. Uh-huh. Caleb Williams is going to clearly be the pick as we've known for quite a while. And you know, he's minus 2300 right now is the line to go to number one. That is 96% implied odds, which feels like you should bet that because it's not at 100% odds, which is the chance he is the pick. Please don't bet minus 2300 things. Uh, these are called these are called jokes. Um, all right. So here's a really, really cool situati
on that a one on one gets to go to there. There have not been many times in the history of the NFL. In fact, I believe there has never been a time in the history of the NFL that a one on one quarterback will go to as winning a franchise in the next year. Because this isn't their pick. This is the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers deserve Caleb Williams, but the Panthers gave it to the Bears. The Bears are not a bad team. They were winning games down the stretch, even with Justin Fields. I think fo
ur of the last six games he started, they won. Um, now they have added Keenan Allen, a wide receiver superstar. Yeah. He's in the last year of his deal. Yes. He's older. He's older than me that you don't think he's going to be the best asset ever for an incoming rookie. I mean, Justin Herbert had a really good rookie season and he also had a really good wider receiver who's always going to be exactly where you know he's supposed to be and he's going to catch the ball if you put it on him. That i
s unbelievable to come in to DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Comet, you add Deandre Swift, an upgrade, I think, to this running back room and then you have Caleb Williams come in. So in redraft, this is a dynasty show in redraft. I will probably be betting against most of these Bears assets betting against DJ Moore, betting against Keenan Allen, because even though I think Caleb Williams is good and will be a very, very valuable, sensational player down the line, that that's how I have him pegged.
I am in on Caleb Williams. Not that that's like, you know, I'm not alone. I would say almost everybody's in on Caleb Williams, but the belief is that he will hit. There weren't enough red flags in the tape and the production and anything to have me really want to bet against it. And when you come into a situation like this, it's your setup for success. So from a dynasty perspective, DJ Moore, I think is going to be, he's only 26 years old, almost 27. He'll play 27. But that means 28, 29 years ol
d, the next couple of years playing with a year two, year three, Caleb Williams, who once you have found success in the NFL, your trajectory stays hot at the quarterback position. You don't usually have guys, you know, look like they're getting it together and then, and then completely fall away. It's happened before, but it's, it's not the norm. And so I'm betting on the Bears future. I want to, I think that the situation as a, you know, we're looking at like, what's the team opportunity here?
The team opportunity is to be one of the best offenses in the league. Crazy. But it's, yeah. I don't, I don't think that happens this year with a rookie. I think that they're middle of the pack, but I do believe that this is going to be a real, really non Bears offense. Like this should be the best Bears offense, maybe of their history. You know, even their, their air quotes, great quarterbacks of their franchise history have not really been prolific offensive, you know, scoring machines. And so
this, they're stacked right now. I think that they've got, they've got a future that is set up for success in a way that has not really happened before. You know, you see Patrick Mahomes go to a good Kansas City Chiefs team because he wasn't the one on one. So often the one on one busts simply not, not just because of their talent, but because they were going to the worst team in the national football league. They had a lack of weapons. They didn't have an offensive line that can protect them.
You know, there are plenty of examples of quarterbacks who came in and I believe if they went to a different team could have been a franchise, you know, player, but like David Carr just kept getting murdered behind the offensive line and forgot how to have confidence to play quarterback. That's the Caleb Williams coming into the best situation imaginable for a one on one. So I'm in on the belief, I want to bet for dynasty purposes on the long-term value of the Bears offense. I totally agree. And
I think in our quarterback evaluations when we did that really a month or so ago, you know, we talked about the volatility of Caleb Williams escaping the pocket, what he's good, what he's, you know, not good at. But there's a lot of questions that kind of get dismissed when you start to think of, hey, who is part of this team rather than he's throwing to the Jonathan Mingos, you know, Adam Thelans of the world, you know, the team that Bryce Young inherited was nobody is getting open. You're rea
lly bad against zone coverage. Guys, this is really sad. You guys know how many touchdowns Bryce Young threw against zone coverage last year? I'll let you guess. I'm going to say four. I will say zero. The answer is zero. Oh my goodness. None. I think they won all of them within the 20 yard line and in, but it's just like he wasn't set up and he wasn't set up with the weapons and then wasn't set up for 2023 NFL, which is mostly zone. So I think there's just so many things to like here. They're a
lso probably going to let him pass more. You know, Shane Waldron's kind of been one of those coordinators that said, you can throw it more with, you know, with 2021 Russ team and then Geno Smith the last two years. They were bottom 10 in Russia attempts. And so I think this team is set up in a really good way. It's sad for Kenan, but I'm also happy for Kenan because it's just kind of been, you know, it's kind of been the writing on the wall that he's at that point in his career. But that's any,
any thoughts on Caleb Williams and the Bears as a whole? No, I think you guys laid it out pretty well. This is the perfect situation to take a rookie quarterback reset with the rookie deal, drop him into this roster and let him go. And, you know, I think the move that they made to bring Kenan Allen tells you a lot. There's also still like NFL mock drafts that still say, look, even though they, they got Kenan Allen, they could still take Roma Dunes at nine if he falls there. So like you could add
another weapon to this offense if they don't think Kenan Allen is there beyond, you know, this season. Yeah. I think it makes complete sense to take another wide receiver there. You don't have a third great option at wide receiver behind Kenan Allen. And Kenan Allen is probably a rookie year rental to help get Caleb Williams going. He's in the last year of his deal right now and I don't, I mean, not that he couldn't resign for the Bears, but he'll be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the
year. He only needs 96 receptions to get to a thousand for his career. Not that I'm counting, but uh, yeah, it's, it's just, it's a great situation. Now I just, I want to follow up with this question because we did a super flex mock draft recently where we talked about, Hey, depending on your team need, if you want to take Caleb Williams 101, if you want to take Marvin Harrison in a one quarterback league, how early should Caleb Williams go? Startup? No, no, sorry, in a rookie draft. In one qua
rterback rookie draft, how early are you taking Caleb Williams? That's all I need to answer first. I think once you get past like the Brian Thomas range fair game for me. I'm looking at drafts right now and it's like, okay, 105, 106, 107 is kind of the range. He's my 106 right now, uh, behind Brian Thomas and Troy Franklin. That will completely, that could be obliterated with the NFL draft. You know, if depending on landing spots for guys like Brian Thomas and Troy Franklin, or, or, and, or othe
r guys that, that could possibly leapfrog, Caleb Williams will be anywhere from the 104 for, for, for my purposes down to like the 107. So he's in that range, he's middle of the first round in non-super flex. All right. I'm going to finish this off talking about the chargers real quickly. And really I just want to talk about how Greg Roman is burning this team to the ground. Um, fantasy, he's burning this fantasy team to the ground. I don't think he's going to burn this team to the ground. Okay.
So I, I, I worked through my emotions because my quick reaction when Keenan Allen got traded, my favorite player in the league was I hate Greg Roman. That was my first thing. I said, I think I hate Greg Roman more than I love Keenan Allen right now. Um, but Greg Romans teams have been known for running the ball. Not a ton of past teams, but they've worked in the NFL going back to 2011 with the 49ers. Those teams averaged 10.2 wins per year. He only had one team where it was set 500. And you kno
w, there's some good teams, some Super Bowl runs. Now it's back when we played 16 games. I'm telling you, like it worked in the NFL. But didn't work for the chargers last year was running the ball. They were basically the worst team of league, uh, 30 second and EPA per rush. And they were really bad on what Greg Romans really good at, which is kind of the man gap concept where you're, you're bringing the guard over. That's his bread and butter. That's his loaf of bread. Big Greg. That's what he
likes. A physical runner. He's got it in Gus Edwards. So it can work in the NFL and it can work if you basically take every wide receiver and say, let's go for Will Disley and Hayden Hurst and block the crap out of this thing. But we have to obviously adjust for Justin Herbert. So that's the conversation that I want to have and just like how much do we adjust him? How much do we adjust his pass attempts? I know Jason, when you're going to start out this year, you're going to be like, oh man, thi
s is a different chargers team I have to work with than before. And I feel like the theme of this show has been, these are rebranded teams. These are like teams that had a meeting for their business that we got to change our logo. This is not the finesse chargers of Phillip Rivers and Keenan Allen and all those years of throwing the ball. It's not the 85 Bears where this is going to be the Caleb Williams high flying show. Yeah. I mean, this is a rebrand for the chargers. It's so funny when Harba
ugh came in. We talked about Harbaugh's history of like he is a run the ball defensive guy. He's done that everywhere. So we pointed out what his rosters were. You know, he had, he had Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith, you know, but then he had Frank Gord and he had these great running back. So it's like, yeah, he plays to his personnel and the personnel of this team is Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, Justin Herbert and Ross and it's like, no, it's not. So it's like, I think, I think he's going t
o play to, he's going to play his personnel to his style so that he can play his personnel. I think the writing's on the wall. Just look at their moves. Right. I mean, release Mike Williams, get rid of Keenan Allen, signed two blocking tight ends, hire Greg Roman, they're telling bringing us upwards. They're telling us all we need to know. We know exactly what they're going to do. We structure both of the defensive guys that there were four players here on this team, on this roster. It was like,
we got to do something about the money. We cannot afford these two superstars on defense, two superstars on offense. So maybe we'll restructure some of them. Maybe we'll, no, they extended the defensive guys and kicked the offensive guys off the roster. Oh gosh. I do think so whoever, so it's Gus Bus for the short term. I'm interested to see the rookie. I know everybody wants to say Blight Corum. I think Jaylen Wright is an interesting, sneaky name that I want to throw out there. Would be a rea
lly good combination. He actually did have a lot of the same, you know, gap concepts that they're good at. I mean, the big dudes, the Ray Davis. That's a neat fit. That's a neat fit. I like that fit with Jaylen Wright. And he's a different player than Gus Edwards, who's a no-donsense. I'm going to follow blocks. I'm not trying to do much. So I think you'd be interesting. Braylon Allen. Yeah. There's so many combinations other than Blight Corum, which, you know, is very much on the nose that woul
d happen, but I know the NFL works. It doesn't happen. Like whenever, whatever combination we make before, those things never happen. So I will be betting against Blight Corum being a charger. Let me say this about Herbert. 26 years old in our dynasty startup ranks, we have him at QB 10, which last year was like, duh, Justin Herbert, you take him in the first round of a Super Flex startup. We have him at 20th overall right now in Super Flex. No, in Super Flex? It's because of Mike. Oh, Mike. So
we need to just talk about that real quick so that if people are looking at that. Mike really does have a genuine. Which I appreciate. Yeah, I love it. I love it. But there's personally nothing wrong with his approach. It is not consensus. It's not the usual agreed to gentlemen agreement of how we play Super Flex. But what he just, he doesn't value the quarterbacks as high in Super Flex as most average Super Flex leagues do. This has been a good thing for him from time to time because I do think
that the majority consensus overvalues quarterbacks in Super Flex. Not that they're not valuable, but they just overdo it. They overdo it with the mediocre, the medium, the, you know, once you're past those top four, five, six guys, you know, that next tier is usually seen as still like just keep drafting them at the very beginning of the first round of Mike's like, I would rather, I would rather take, you know, and, and AJ Brown, a young great wide receiver who I know is going to be good for a
long time than these middling quarterbacks who might have a down year. So there, there is legitimacy to it. But when you hear that he's 20 overall, that's, yeah, that's Mike. Yeah. I think, well, one, you can win with so many different strategies. And I do think that when we look at Herbert, he's averaged 26 completions per game in his career. Like he's kind of been a volume guy. He was awesome. If you remember the first six weeks of the year, he was a quarterback one, right? 23 points per game
, but he's averaged 26 completions per game. And I, I started looking up, man, how, how often has Greg Roman done this in 10 years as an offensive coordinator, 162 games, his quarterbacks hit that just 9.8% of his time, just in Herbert's average of 26 completions. So he's going to have to win on efficiency. And it's really hard to look at this offense and go, where is the passing efficiency right now? Now, if they draft and leak neighbors, you're excited, you know, at five overall, but we've tal
ked a lot about Quentin Johnson. We've talked a lot about like, Hey, you can just stare at him on your bench. If that is the kind of pain that you enjoy, but to expect a leap forward is really hard based on the historical evidence of what he's done so far. But it's, it's hard to find a rookie quarterback or rookie, a young quarterback in his prime, just completely stripped of his weapons. I went through as many comps. Randy Moss, when he left the Vikings is really the only one where Dante Colpep
per was the quarterback one the season before, and then he was gone after that, just like nothing for fantasy. But like, it just doesn't happen. You don't see teams paying their quarterback and then saying, we're not going to give him weapons. So I don't know how do we adjust bets in dynasty? Yeah, I think you, you have to be realistic. You know, when you were taking Justin Herbert last year, if you had him, you could see weekly top three finishes in the range of outcomes. You could see a top fi
ve finish on the season if things went right. I think I was gone. Just straight up gone. Because you just want to have enough volume and it's not just the volume concern, but Quentin Johnson is on paper, the wide receiver one. And that is a massive, massive red flag for this offense. So I mean, from that standpoint, you need to take this opportunity. You have a small window where it's like, Hey, they don't have Mike Williams. They don't have Keenan Allen. Try like heck to trade away Quentin John
son right now. But for Justin Herbert, I'm worried, man. I think when it all comes, you know, down to it, we, you guys do all the stat rankings in the UDK and stuff like, I think you could be like the quarterback 14, 15. Don't say it. That's so sad. And it's like, okay, you know, but I don't see him really helping you this year. I mean, two years ago, played the entire season was pretty good. He was the quarterback 11. You know, he was, he was not, that was quarterback one, but he's not winning
people championships. You know, and he was 16.4 fantasy points per game. So this is like, you take a few touchdowns away, you take a bunch of passing attempts away, you take some weapons away. Yeah. He's probably outside the top 12 this season. Yeah. I mean, that season you're talking about 699 pass attempts. I think that's like in the top five of all time and it was an inefficient season. So to expect him to get, I don't know, his pass attempts in the low 500s, this is four wide receivers on th
e roster as of now. Yeah. Joshua Palmer to the moon. Wide receivers. Palmer is going to be probably pretty good. I will say this. It's hard to project this going into year five, but based on the coaching history and the weapons on the field, I do think you're going to have Justin Herbert run the ball a significant amount more. Like he's never really gotten over 300 yards. I think he get, I think he eclipses 400 rushing yards this year. I can see that. And we had it, we saw a bounce back last yea
r with three rushing touchdowns after zero the year before, but it's just before it was a no brainer. You take him in the first round of a super flex startup and this guy's going to be awesome for forever. And now you're looking like, I did not see this scenario coming where I'd look at this guy and say, not only do I not get the volume, but I don't have anybody, any weapons right now, but that could change. You know, Malik neighbors, whoever a month from now, but yeah, I'm calm down from Greg R
oman and I'm just pointing my anger at just Jim Harbaugh now because he let this happen too. I can't wait for the Cardinals to sadly trade out of the number four spot bypass Marvin Harrison, Jr. and have Marvin Harrison, Jr. drop into the lap of Justin Herbert and the chargers and watch that team who has no wide receivers on the roster. Grab a defensive player. I just can't wait. I can't wait for them to be like, no, we don't. Fowers. I'm not going to do passing here. How good are you at blockin
g Marvin? That's all you're going to do. All right. That's going to do it for this episode. If you want more, you can go to udkplus.com and get in on all of our dynasty rankings, startup rankings, udkplus.com and we'll talk to you again next week. Goodbye. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty podcast. If you want to take your dynasty skills to the next level, check out thefantasyfootballers.com.
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