The Relevant Question: Pollster Mark Penn on Israel-Hamas

[Music] I'm Andrew Schwarz and you're listening to the truth of the matter a podcast by csis where we break down the top policy issues of the day and talk with the people that can help us best understand what's really going [Music] on to get to the truth of the matter about the latest trends in foreign policy National Security we have with us Mark Penn the chairman of stagwell chairman of CEO of stagwell former pollster for Bill and Hillary Clinton uh many other things including Bon CEO leadersh

ip team at Microsoft and Mark welcome to the podcast he's actually I should say under the reason he's here today is he's the CEO of the Harvard caps Harris poll and we're going to talk about some of these Trends so Mark welcome to the podcast thank you happy to be here so Mark tell me about some of the National Security trends that you saw in your February poll the results on Israel and Hamas may surprise some people oh first let me just tell you that when it comes to foreign policy uh as much a

s it foreign policy can dominate the headlines in the news right now when I ask people for the most important issue what percentage do you think named Israel I I would say 1% two% three% it was two right so it's really kind of incredible that Americans themselves as I always say they have an opinion on everything but but right now they're they are super focused on domestic policy crime immigration inflation you know little healthc care education all of these things climate change and then down a

t the bottom foreign foreign policy so I I always used to have this fight in the states of the Union uh where uh Sandy Berger would accuse me of eliminating all this foreign policy stuff each time and of course uh God Rest Andy Soul it wasn't me uh it was Vox papuli and we put a little so that's why it was surprising of course that uh that President Biden uh opened up with with the Ukraine uh because look you know there's there's support for the Ukraine uh the dollar figure attached to um to the

Ukraine is seen as high uh the there's more support actually for Israel uh and the dollar figure uh you know it's still you know Americans are a little cheap at the moment but still you get about 54 55% favoring the funding to Israel right some don't know uh but you get a major a solid majority but but do Americans favor the ukrainians over the Russians absolutely do Americans favor Israel Over Hamas absolutely right uh do they want to spend American money on it yes butt is really the answer ri

ght so what's what's the butt what's the butt well the butt is you know there's a huge deficit there cons they want they they kind of say look if you can't do the border at home why are you doing the Border you know why are you trying to protect the Border or you know over in Russia and and the Ukraine so there's a certain logic to them being frustrated with the current current problems but but their their hearts so to speak you know are are are in good places in terms of trying to stop both ter

rorism uh you know and and Putin and and so but so you know the price tag after all the price tag is pretty high uh you know asking for another $60 billion dollar on top of what's been spent right that's that's not the end of it either obviously right no and and it is interesting that we've developed in in in the situation in which the Democrats are more likely to favor funding for the Ukraine and the Republicans are more likely to favor funding for Israel now whoever expected that would be the

case well and you know people would always say the Republicans are the party of National Security and the party of NATO the party of you know strong defense um why are they changing their tune on Ukraine all of a sudden uh I because of the Str the the America first strain why why are we sorting out that conflict part of the territor is kind of naturally Russian anyway you know haven't we gone too far with this aren't we risking a World War uh oh you can see the arguments but they're not majority

arguments you know and and the difference is a majority supports both causes majority supports Ukraine funding or close to it but that price tag they would be more supportive with a $30 billion price tag and the solid majority supports the the the Israel funding and remember there's also a a sense that why should we be not just the world's policeman but why should be the we be the world's funer right and and so I think that's important and you know it takes leadership in these issues right that

has to outline the reasons why the National Security interest you know why you know this is important to world peace and security what it really means to America to do these things and and obviously uh you know since the president's uh earlier speech we we haven't had really really much assertive leadership what do you think he did the job last night coming out I mean state of the union he came straight out with a national security issue as you said Ukraine uh maybe surprising to some uh dove i

nto NATO and then left Israel towards the end but were you surprised he opened with Ukraine uh I was surprised he open with Ukraine and that he split Israel from Ukraine yeah when he did his original speech he knew Ukraine wasn't popular so he basically said we're helping Israel and then mumbled that we're also going to help the Ukraine right now because this was really a democratic convention speech and not at all a State of the Union uh I think what he did was to separate the two and then when

it came to Israel he had he had greatly changed his tune uh he said yeah Hamas committed these horrible things yeah Israel has has a right of of self-defense but then he spent all of the time you know about Aid to Hamas and this uh rather risky idea of building a port in Gaza to which the Israelis are fine with go ahead America build the port leave us out of it you know I I I I think that the but the notion that going to do that without putting I guess we're not going to put boots on the ground

we we going to put boots in the water uh it's kind kind of we're going to have frog men setting up the pier I mean it was a little bit we're getting some contractors the Israelis are not going to do that one they're not building any any peers in Gaza that's clear and so and so he spent all his time obviously he was playing to to Michigan support and obviously the media has been playing up you know what I think is is false and exact exaggerated polling uh in order to actually give him the impres

sion that he had a political problem that was more important uh than helping Israel uh put out Hamas tell me about that why why do they think that they have such a political problem and and what's the reality well they think they have a problem there are 100,000 voters in Michigan who voted uncommitted meaningless these voters are never voting for Donald Trump who is twice the Israel Hawk are they going to stay home and and no they they are they are they are not going to stay home it was an empt

y meaningless threat you call Michigan a swing state because the most important voters you need are the swing voters right these are democratic voters and and and you know as you point out and allude to they came out for the primary and voted uncommitted these are civically minded people who vote they don't stay home right they stay home they're involved they wanted to register a protest fair enough they were they were let's see there was 11% uncommitted against Obama they were 133% uncommitted

you know if they got 40% I would have said boy this is really concerning uh at at 133% considering all of the major elected officials who went out of their way to broadcast this and ask people to do it I wouldn't consider that really much of a protest but then the the Press played it up like it's oh it's serious this whole base is defecting uh no it's the swing voters who have defected which is why he's down in virtually every poll against Trump it's not the there's what there's maybe 1% uh Arab

Muslim there's maybe 2% Jewish the actual voters of these of of of Within These communities is relatively small even in Michigan uh why do you think the swing voters are are swinging to Trump right now they're swinging to Trump because economy immigration crime and a general feeling that life was better under Trump and when it comes to foreign policy the real Clash is is is do the voters believe what Trump says which is these leaders they they feared me and so they weren't going to take these p

rovocative actions while I was President because because they would know that I would respond tough in a tough Manner and Biden you know how did they respond how has Biden responded and is it seen as a tough response well we know that for years they were trying to get a deal with Iran they they they they dissed Saudi Arabia until maybe the last year uh they they the the houthis I mean it is a little inconceivable to me that houthis are saying end in anti-ship ballistic missiles at our ships and

which would normally be as I recall an act of war and we and we act like oh yeah well good thing we shot them down it's it's we've been talking about this a lot on this podcast you know the houthis don't have food they don't have water uh but they have missiles and you know they have no power no food no water but they have missiles and we're not taking just of action well uh we're not so then obviously you can see when you come to America America's attitude is I don't want to pay for all this an

d if I've got a president that prevents it from happening that's the that's cheapest right and and if that happens then I got to pay for it then who else is going to pay for it I want the rest of the world to pay for it uh so there there's a lot but I will say but I did want to focus a little bit on this Israel poing yeah I mean it's it's really it jumps at you over four in five voters support Israel in the conflict with Hamas U tell me about that well I ask a very simple and straightforward que

stion are you more supportive of Israel or Hamas because that's what the conflict is it's Israel versus habas no don't know pick one it's like in World War II you with America or you with Germany okay now the question that's asked in in in some of the other polls Gallup but others is are you more supportive of the Israeli people the Palestinian people both or neither which doesn't really tell you much about the actual conflict no and that poll will come out more favorable to Israel more people w

ill say care about Israel people will say care about a lot of people will say both because if I asked you do you care about the American people the German people both I mean it's not the the the relevant question in a war the relevant question is which side you sympathize with and the fact that they are say 177% or so who sympathize with habas is a real number and and at at one point it was running about half the people 18 to 24 that seems to have diminished a little bit I've seen no drop in sup

port for Israel whatsoever uh I thought there would be a drop but as Israel as these things dropped off the front page the there aren't pictures of Israel bombing Hamas every day it seems if anything Israel support has held and then the other then I was really surprised the Wall Street Journal question was more like well do the echoing echoing really what uh uh really what Biden said began with well do you think Israel's been over the top well I don't know what over the top top is but they kind

of prompting an answer over the top was not over the top we about right so then they over the top 42 they didn't bother to add up the rest of the people who said Not Over the Top they left them in three separate categories okay when you add the not over the because there there's like 20% that are even like they should be much more aggressive right the important question is about the important question is about hostages yes right right do you do you have a ceasefire if they don't release the host

ages and that's where we focus on you know we focus on it in in our questions right you know and and do you favor an unconditional ceasefire in the hos war that would leave everyone in place or do you think a ceasefire should happen only after the release of all hostages and Hamas is remove from power now that puts a real choice right and 67% say only when the hostages are released and removed from Power that's two and three that's two and three respondents to the poll say they would only suppor

t a ceasefire after Hamas releases all hostages and Hamas is removed from Power correct and that is the relevant question for this situation now among 18 to 24 53% favor an unconditional ceasefire among 65 plus 18% right so there is a generational difference there is particularly an 18 to 24 difference it bleeds up a little bit uh but even those numbers are you know 5050 is right so the on the on the younger side it's still above 50% supporting Israel right and or this is support ceasefire yes a

nd the ceasefire was 5347 unconditional so so that but really that that would be within the margin of error um for for that particular sample and then you had a finding that say 63% of Voters continue to support Israel's ground Invasion um and I believe as you categorize that by age it was above 50% in the 18 to 24 and as you get older the support for uh the ground Invasion continues to increase up to 65 plus then it's I think around 70% right exactly so do you support Israel contining its groun

d Invasion to root out the final elements or oppose it because 1.2 million civilians have taken shelter and will be under significant risk of harm so I I put out the choice very clearly I I say the 1.2 million civilians and you know what people understand when you focus on Hamas as is Israel's goal that Hamas is a genocidal terrorist group yes with the lowest favorability I even do their favorability trust me they're even less like than Putin right well that's that's good I can't imagine anyone

likes them uh and and so no but there are young people who think that that Hamas is the Democracy in the Middle East that they're the they're the Justified ones so yes there there within that half within the half of young people I I I did a lot of probing deep into that and about half of the half is completely misinformed so 20 so something like 25% of the young people you surveyed are misinformed yes I'd say 25% are dedicated supporters of Hamas as part of their support of the Palestinian cause

Okay uh and I'd say 25% of it to they thought they thought that gay people did fine under Hamas but not Israel they they were just totally completely upside down on on the reality which doesn't surprise me they're 18 to 24 an American college campus is getting their primary source of news from Tik Tok so that's what I was going to ask you why do you think this younger generation is uh feeling the way they're feeling they're they're they're in a they're look they they don't have the 911 experien

ce they certainly don't have the 1948 experience the 67 experience the 73 experience they don't have the experience I went through with President Clinton and Hillary when they tried to negotiate and I think nothing turned Hillary more pro-israel than the 2000 peace negotiations in which she discovered much to the surprise and and the president discovered as well it didn't matter what you offered the Palestinian Authority they had no ability to accept anything they would be killed yeah yeah I you

know so here we are today and you're seeing these Trends um what's the relevant question for our leaders right now when it comes to Israel well the relevant question really is is how are they going to balance the considerations between the the the genuine concern about Palestinians and those in Gaza the need to wipe out Hamas but also the need to uh deal with the other proxy forces that Iran has put into place clearly the administration made a major mistake by taking uh their foot off the pedal

on Iran for the first couple of years they let Iran basically fund and Stoke up you know the regional Terror and so rather than getting the next uh agreement uh in the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia instead Hamas was able to come in through with as an Iran proxy and destabilized the region um and so uh what's the makeup for that mistake the makeup for that mistake is to give no quarter to Hamas whatsoever yeah uh which is which is where they were right yeah and then domestic politics came in

and and what were the election season and and and so now they've they've kind of hesitated a bit uh and they're not giving the same level of support I mean to me the most stunning thing was that he he mentioned Hamas he did not mention the funding for Israel yeah right he he only mentioned the funding uh he only mentioned the funding for Ukraine and he did not mention the growing problem of anti-s ISM President Biden did not yes and this has a lot of Jewish leaders rather unhappy today I'm sure

and you know there's got to be a lot of concern in that regard because the Jewish community in America is seeing something of an existential crisis right now um are you going to be doing any polling on that uh well I I I can do continue to do polling you know every month we do different questions uh I I did some polling on this whole notion of victim and oppressor class and whatnot and uh you know so among the 18 to 24 which is really where the the issue the issue is 79% of them thought that uh

white people were oppressors and 67% of them thought Jews were oppressors okay and so this kind of broad anti-Semitism you know that has been engendered you know with with a with a false notion that Jews as a class should be seen as oppressors is behind a lot of what we see in the 18 to 24 but look you get to people who are 65 who were who would have been anti-vietnam War radicals right yeah and and they have seen enough in their lifetime with terrorism with Isis with 911 with with with other c

onflicts with Israel to have a very clear view right of of the situation in the midd East and from a political basis I think the left has been you know exaggerating uh exaggerating the support doing everything they can to frighten Biden off what what genuinely has been a very strong pro-israel record uh so that he's he's acting you know more politically and out of policy and every time he does that people in Hamas you know they have the internet yeah but he is his record is clearly strongly pro-

israel and to date I don't believe he said anything that you know counters that in any way but here's the real question for me okay we see all these polls all the time that talk about um how the American people are upset with Israel Over Prosecuting this war against Hamas why are we seeing such a a disparity in the in these polls when the reality is as you've shown in this in your polls that the support for Israel is much more broad-based because they don't ask the questions they just ask the on

e question sometimes two questions I was I thought it was Inc incredible I think the journal had a couple of questions uh and they said you know who do you support more Israel pal Israeli people Palestinian people both and then they said oh there's more support for Palestinian people well it moved from like you know 27 to 30 something I mean it didn't really matter where it moved from and then when I did a statistical T Test of the two samples that were half samples it wasn't actually statistica

lly significant yeah um now the the media looks for everything that's useful but mostly if they would ask my question if they would ask any of my questions they would come out plus or minus five points the same as I asked them because that would be the margin of error they do not ask the questions they ask these these fuzzy wuzzy questions that are designed of course people sympathize with Palestinian people this is not a fight between the Palestinian people and the Israeli people I think that's

the key mark you know if you most Americans if you ask them do you care and sympathize with Palestinian people the answer overwhelmingly is yes if you ask them do you care and sympathize with the Israelis who were attacked on October 7th I think overwhelmingly the answer is yes when you put it in the terms that you put it where it's Israel against Hamas it is not Israel against the Palestinian people that's the real question right well where so where do we go from here what's the next series of

polls you're going to do in this space and foreign policy and National Security and you know I'm going to keep keep tracking I mean look you know it's interesting uh Ukraine uh Ukraine Israel Iran you know we occasionally ask some questions on China you know America's kind of of two minds on China you know they they like a little bit about that yeah well they like Chinese products y you know half the people I know have iPhones made in China right uh they they would never take kind of like they'

d never throw their iPhone away because it was made in China right but if I ask them about China they very negative attitudes about China and its government and human rights and uh and they and they think that China makes kind of you know dumps cheap products on the World to reduce labor prices here they have pretty negative views on China but they don't act on them you know I always say that the one bipartisan value in Washington right now is it's neither party likes China very much and I guess

that's why well yes but they all they don't like China but interestingly again if you listen to Biden yesterday his attitude was he was going to be a competitor not a combatant with China right and and whereas I think uh president Trump took a more combative action and tone towards China now China's in the view of most people China is stealing intellectual property uh you know for they have a Litany of bad things that they think China is doing and then the at the same time as I said very little

action uh not that much discussion really or talk about it uh and because I think the focus is on Putin uh and the focus is on on Hamas and Israel you know at this point and people are worried about Taiwan I mean I I believe I had a question not too long ago you know should the US you know militarily support Taiwan in the event of a Chinese Invasion and most people said yes so there's a very strong support for Taiwan I think the real fear that people have with Biden is that is that if Russia mo

ved ahead in the Ukraine and Hamas Iran moved ahead uh you know against Israel will there be a third front and is China waiting for a sign of weakness that they would go in here to take Taiwan or is China looking at Russ Russia's you know Frozen conflict and stalemate in Ukraine and worrying that they could get bogged down in the same well I think that uh at first at first glance it looked like Russia was paying a heavy price and it would be over and they'd never win but Hamas leaders are still

intact Putin is still in charge I think they're looking at there and and the Chinese think of themselves as you know about the long time frame the long road so most experts I talk to say they won't but the question of public opinion is there is a lot of support for for that they would be support for leadership you know to to work again to defend against and you know Can America Can America protect itself from International Wars with pacifist stance or does it take stronger more frightening stanc

es that are inherently more dangerous and and that's always been the tough question and and it certainly is a question that dominates uh what we see today usually imp polls Americans say take the tough action until you take the tough action and then they say what'd you do that for so it's you can't win I guess right uh it is very hard for Americans to win American Presidents to win in foreign policy in things that take more than a couple of weeks wow well those are words to keep in mind as we go

forward over these next eight months in looking at this election mark thank you so much for sharing these insights from the uh Harvard caps Harris poll which is an excellent poll I hope you know all our listeners subscribe to Mark's email so they can get a copy of the monthly poll I know I learn a lot from it every time mark thank you so much thank you if you enjoyed this podcast check out our larger Suite of Cs podcasts from into Africa the Asia chess board China power AIDS 2020 the trade guys

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