The Sixth Leonidas Donskis Conference: Will Russia Survive 2024? (English)

The sound is available from 0:14:00 Memorial conference I have no doubt that  Professor donskis would be delighted with the formulation of the theme and he would be  no less delighted to be here at vedilo theater you may not be aware but Learners was a great  admirer of the theater and liked himself to initiate events in unconventional spaces by all  means he would be an active participant in today's debate as he was very concerned about the fate  of Russia on the other hand however it is sad be

cause lonidas is no longer with us and we are  no and we are now already in the second year of a destructive war with no Clarity of the future the  horror of the war haunts us every day and I have a sad apprehension that today's debate no matter how  fruitful it might be will neither be optimistic nor joyful it is a known fact that donskis was  well acquainted with Andre amalrixon prophecy and as far as I know studied his work will the  Soviet Union survive 1984 together with Orwell's 1984. in h

is course on politics and literature  which was very much popular among the students at idodas Magnus University in fact lonidas himself  was quite a prophet back in 2016 he initiated a series of short comments called political  portraits focusing on both Heroes and anti-heroes one of which was the infamous Putin  already then he not only insightfully detailed their psychological portrait  but also outlined possible scenarios for its Evolution unfortunately  many of them came true a year earlier

he had vividly drawn The Perils  between orbitals 1984. and the Contemporary Russia and their further development the retrospective  allows us to admire donkey's insights and Imagination both used insights and Imagination we  are very much lacking today this is evidenced by the fact that his last book when was which was  compiled after his death has already sold out I'm very pleased to open what has become a  tradition an annual International Conference in the memory of Professor lunida's donsk

is I have  no doubt it will stimulate the public discourse with original and forward-looking insights let me  conclude with an inspiring Legacy of our beloved friend the challenge that Leonidas donkeys  has left for us is quite simple but demanding to be interested in public affairs to  speak the truth loudly even when it hurts to represent and defend human dignity to expose  provincialism and protect freedom but do it through dialogue conversation without anger or  hatred wouldn't it be fantast

ic if such Credo was acknowledged among our neighbors I'm once  again thankful to my dear colleagues from Andrew Sahara Research Center for Democratic development  thank you Robert thank you Dana thank you everyone who initiated this significant event and  maintain the tradition I wish you fruitful interesting and simulating discussions  and let me take one short moment to um okay I still have to keep to keep talking  there to give a small embodiment of gratitude to the heart of the conference 

to Professor Robert Van Warren this is a um a a medal that was established on the  Centennial Obito tasmanus University so Robert on behalf of the of the Rector I would  once again want to extend a very sincere and warm gratitude for everything what you're doing for  the University and for the community thank you [Music] thank you thank you very much Vilma it's a quite  something to get this today because actually it's Leonidas donkis who brought  me to countless and set us on this path thank yo

u ladies and gentlemen when in the spring of 1969  the Moscow historian Andrea mauric wrote his essay will the Soviet Union survive 1984. very few  people took his prognosis of the collapse of the Soviet Union seriously the Soviet Union seemed  extremely stable both politically and economically leonidbarration have had been in power for  just five years and was still in good health Yuri andropov had assumed control  over the KGB two years earlier and I just Unleashed his war against ideological 

diversion in other words against what he called the internal enemy the dissident movement  also the attempt to develop socialism with a human face in Czechoslovakia had been  crushed less than a year before to predict at that moment the collapse of the largest  superpower on Earth seemed rather outlandish of course America himself was an unusual figure  as Mario karti will discuss in his presentation after several years in the gulag he joined the  newly established Moscow Helsinki group in 1976

and shortly after emigrated to the Netherlands  where he lived for two years in Utrecht the fact that when he left the Netherlands a party  was organized to celebrate his departure says maybe enough amarik died in the car crash in Spain  in 1980 and gradually faded from public knowledge here in Lithuania like in most countries  in the region very few knew him and even fewer remember him and his  essay remains almost completely unknown when discussing the future of Russia very few  believed that

the disintegration of the Russian Federation what did they still call them paper  is a possibility on the other hand many fear the disintegration of Russia because of the  consequences that might have when it comes to stability in the region big issues are  the ownership of the vast nuclear Arsenal the possibility of huge bloodshed reminiscent to  the Civil War following the Bolshevik Revolution and the possibility that criminal gangs  will remain a prevailing political force and not just one c

riminal gang  which is now in rule in the Kremlin but many competing Warlords all with their own  heavily armed mercenary forces the whole battery of preggers who will kill everything on their way  many prefer a weakened Russia as a unified state just like the American President George W  bush did with regards to the USSR when he traveled to Kiev in August 1991 to tell the  Ukrainian Parliament that it was all in favor of the Ukrainian Renaissance on all levels but  he opposed what he called sui

cidal nationalism and full Independence his speech is  now usually referred to as chicken Kiev fact is that this unified Russia is a  menace to its neighbors and to World Peace and that it has joined Iran and North Korea as  a rogue state and which has promoted the threat of annihilation of its main foreign as a main  part of his foreign policy in October 2021 we organized the conference at the president's office  in Vilnius on the occasion of 30 years diplomatic relations Lithuania Russia the c

onference had  a title are good neighborly relations possible a title that can now be seen in a different light  and would immediately extract a response quite different than that one in October 21 some four  months before the full skill invasion of Ukraine indeed I think there are still few politicians who  Express openly to believe that normal relations with this government this regime is possible  at least until until fundamental changes have taken place in Russia so then the question  is how

fundamental should these changes be I often refer to the words of the famous  German writer Thomas Mann who in 1946 lamented and I shortened his quote a bit how  will it be to belong to a nation under whose desperate megalomanic efforts to become  a nation the world had to suffer so much back of every sentence that we  construct in our language stands a broken spiritually burnt out people a  people that can never show his face again Nazi Germany was conquered by the allies  and even and it was

conquered by the Allies the denassification process was imposed from  outside and even in that situation it was almost a complete failure how can we expect Russia to  cleanse itself when the overwhelming part of the population is demoralized desensitized brainwashed  and has become part of this Collective Madness in 2018 we organized also a donkey's Memorial  conference with the theme Building Bridges thoughts about the other Russia several experts  discussed the subject trying to find Hope for

the future and referring to those parts of the  Russian society that had not yet been putinized I remember very well how one of her friends  from Russia stood up in the end and said it's all very beautiful what you're saying but you  all forget one thing Russian people have turned into bit law rednecks nothing good can be expected  from them some were dismayed by his remark but now five years later we have to admit that he was  right he saw what we still didn't want to see so the theme of this c

onference is maybe  provocative but if there's also one of Hope maybe the current Russia will not survive 2024.  at least not in this form and maybe does next year the suffering of the Ukrainian people will come  to an end because I'm convinced about one thing the war in Ukraine will only end when Russia stops  being able to wage war when the useless sending of tens of thousands of men to their certain death  on the Ukrainian Battlefield will finally stop because of the Russian leadership  their

lives have no value whatsoever they're just cogs in the killing machine flies  hovering over the corpse of a filled state hijacked by a lethal combination of KGB and  criminality any continuation of this Russia will only mean the threat will remain and War  will remain an integral part of our daily lives by the way in 1969 amalek believed that the  Soviet Chinese War would be a factor in the country's demise he was partially wrong  as the board that eventually hastened the collapse of the USSR

was not in  China but was the war in Afghanistan but how actual are his words now when  reading his prediction that a and I quote a drawn out exhausting War prosecuted  by decrepit leaders which drained the Soviet government of resources and legitimacy will  bring about the collapse replace the word Soviet with Russian and you see that these words  written in 1969 are just as actual today in 2023 the program of the conference is diverse  offering a wide range of views and beliefs however I hope

that our speakers of today  will have the courage that Andrea malwick displayed in 1969 the courage to look  beyond the visible beyond the obvious and to discuss what options Russia and the world  have and I think we all agree the war needs to end the threat needs to stop now and  for future Generations thank you can I now invitecas for the first talk this morning about Leonidas donskis who  we remember today and his views on Russia ladies and gentlemen it's a great honor  to attempt to describe

leonida's view on Russia Leonidas first and foremost for many  of us was the dear friend and the colleague and as Robert had mentioned he brought many  of us to veto Das Magnus University actually it was identified very much with his figure  as a figure or which promotes diversity academic autonomy diversity of use very often  controversial views so in University we usually fight over many issues and and publicly we speak  very differently everybody with its own opinions um so it's rather diffi

cult to speak about  Leonidas and they have to refer to his written work though you know through many years of  conversations and discussions and being in all kinds of social situations I mean you know  the views I mean how people are you know viewing a certain major [Music] issues certain countries  how they treat you know with respect or disrespect you know the partners and Leonidas was for  those who don't know then him a major public figure and in Lithuania who acted always as a  defender of

Human Rights and civil liberties uh just to mention I mean he got many awards for  all uh for different activities but for example in 2004 Leonidas donkeys had been awarded by the  European commission the title of the Ambassador for tolerance and diversity for example I'm just  one example and as a politician he had always been opposed to all extreme all exclusionary  attitudes and forms of violent politics and instead he has been leaning to liberalism  and its advocacy of individual reason and

Consciousness ability to coexist with Democratic  programs and other non-exclusive ideologies and promoted everywhere moderation so he was very  modern the person who would moderate their often harsh discussions and harsh positions  on many political views um and Russia was always close to the heart of Leonidas it was  always important country as a reference country and delineating different parts of development  and transformation of their post Soviet world the baltics for example for Leonidas

were on the  right path he saw that the baltics are moving the right direction into postmodern neoliberal future  while Russia Sliding Away and deviating from the liberal reasoning so for him it was a rather  difficult to acknowledge it because [Music] um of numerous friends in Russia literally Idols he  liked very much Russian literature also because of country's contribution country's contribution  to wealth intellectual history [Music] um it was a timely and accurate note that um quite  a fe

w people from learning just generation would depict themselves as political ruseophobes you can  say political Roosevelts and cultural russophiles so Leonidas from that point of view was exactly  that person um however his so-called political rosophobia was also stemming from a potent  anti-soviet sentiment this is clearly was seen everywhere in his writings [Music] um basically  we can say that Leonidas identified the country Russia with his friends and acquaintances however  he was always awar

e of the other side of Russia especially a failure to integrate into the  Western milia he saw it as a I mean the very Russian development he saw as a step back from not  being being able to stay in the postmodern world nowadays we might be of different opinion because  this I mean the last writings of Leonidas were coming from 2016 but then postmodernism looked as  an uh only undisputable and disputable option for Leonidas so Leonidas looked at the postmodernity  which is questioned right now I

mean even academic I mean not only academically but publicly but then  for him it was you know in 2016 the only option um uh in in this contact context  Leonidas carefully had waited another option the Russian path is a return  to brutal modernity of job politics was social engineering and brainwashing were  propaganda in a sense it's it's canceling the post-industrial past and development  potential post-industrial past and development um and in a sense bringing Russia into  the world of imper

ialism and bonapartism the idea which looked fantastic then that Russia  might be for stalling the actions of the West in a sense he was even saying and the raising the  question maybe the Russia is not only that it's kind of degenerating in a sense not being able  to to adapt but maybe the Russians and Russian Federation is um is a forward-looking nation  with all kinds of bad consequences for that um in a sense in his writing we also  find some phrases which are saying that Putin's Russia fore

sees the future and is  a radical case of self-made postmodernity so when we look right now in the from the  perspective of nearly 10 years I mean let's say eight years um we'll see if lonidas was right  on that um on the other hand Leonidas believed in the superiority of the Western World of the  western Democratic Alliance and they maintained that you know the possible Russian challenge  to the Western values democracy structural challenge to the liberal institutions governing  the world is co

mpletely unfeasible option um actually Leonidas one speaking about Russia  always would try to draw the lessons for ourselves I mean and for himself and  for ourselves um the complications in the international Affairs geopolitics  encourage fear and in this course of all and fear the right-wing politicians usually play  and sell popular fears and learning this was very critical of that though technically looking I mean  he was in the central right Coalition usually I mean politically I mean this

is Central right but  he was very critical of the right-wing politicians um and while fighting Russian propaganda and  looking among ourselves uh for uh and here this is a quote from Leonidas uh looking for  among ourselves for the vatniks the Agents of Kremlin we risked to become the mirror image of  present-day Russia and any non-propaganda-driven opinion usually is being branded as what  fabricated and serving enemies interest so he was cautioning everybody against  the kind of for the zealo

us approach you know to to be non-critical  to our own deeds and actions another interesting question which we usually  with which Learners would carry around discussions was a question of the relationship between the  Soviet Union and Russia as I mentioned at the beginning usually this kind of russophobia  is coming from the Soviet of Soviet phobia very often I mean we might say it however  when you look at the Leonidas writings was very clear that contemporary  Russia is not the Soviet Union u

m and it seems obvious to any more one more  or less familiar with history and not devoid of the sense of reality when it comes  to Russia and its perception we scrum according to Leonidas I'm quoting  him him here to some cliches and simplistic interpretations out of our  wish to overreach and over generalize uh simplistic comparison of Russia and  the former Soviet Union is a good example in far in fact according to Leonidas donskis  Russia and the Vladimir Putin Bears much more family more re

semblance to African cryptocracies  such as Nigeria or the South American authoritarian populist regimes like the Chavez  Chavez in Venezuela then to the Soviet Union was saying that we urgently need a paradigm  shift as regards to Russia and its assessment it will not vanish in the ear leaving no Trace  nor will it become something profoundly different in the near future we are bound to live side by  side with Russia as a problematic neighbor and partner rather than a fatal Sinister and wants 

and for all who fall to the Baltic States among the strange strong sides of Russia here I'm  quoting him we can easily mention its enormous intellectual potential creativity and one of  the greatest cultures in the modern world um according to Leonidas in 2016 he thought um Vladimir Putin cannot Define himself other than  through his Nostalgia for the former Soviet Union whose demise was as the sad and former KGB Colonel  put it the worst geopolitical catastrophe in the 20th century the younger

generations of Russia  have nothing to do with this sort of Soviet jingoism Imperial patriotism and revenge  seeking may be something that motivates the Russian power structure but it means nothing  to young Russian middle class people who are the best at best indifferent too if not overall  sarcastic of the Soviet Union and the paradise on Earth quote unquote so what is the future  I mean the conferences to discuss the future um sure that Russia might become a  normal State quote unquote normal

state however only after total moral Fiasco Moral Moral  bankruptcy which will occur earlier or later no doubt in 10 or 15 years whoever learning this was  not asking if we gonna stay all the Western World and US gonna stay the same in the future in in  a sense in in a normality so can we be normal after 10 15 years of this kind of events  so we'll uh we'll see we have a conference discussing these issues and I hope that the  conference in leonida's thinking as a kind of pre precondition for pr

econditioning this kind of  event will contribute to better understanding and in the future which is lying ahead  of us thank you very much [Applause] before I give the floor to the  first keynote speaker of today I just want to mention that and it's  also fitting in the context of this conference Leonidas not being by coincidence  and ambassador of Tolerance he was one of the most Pro active and outspoken persons  seeking reconciliation between the uh between Lithuania and the Jewish community 

and Lithuania following the Holocaust today in half an hour from now um not far  away from here the Lithuanian Parliament will remember the liquidation of the  ghetto in Vilnius exactly 80 years ago so may I invite the first keynote speaker of today Mikhail shishkin to the stage I see that or I  think he is getting as much you're here okay Misha [Applause] can you hear me thank you very much  for having invited me to this event for this event I wrote an essay and I will read this text in Russia

n  and you will get the English translation it's very important for me to speak Russian because Putin made my language to the  language of murderers and war criminals but Russian language doesn't  belong to Putin it belongs to me is the future of Russian culture let's see the  valkyrie plot of July 20th 1944 succeeds Colonel staufenberg blows up Hitler  the new government stops the war the Allies make denasification a condition  of peace Germany's denacification is carried out by the party and t

he Gestapo deputization  is going to be carried out by the next Putin my whole life I felt I was standing on firm  ground and that firm ground was Russian culture now I'm standing on the void I'm done  distal once said the Russian silence is quite extraordinary but they are silent about  precisely what inspires their vital interest in the Autumn of 2014 I flew to a book fair  in krasnayarsk an enormous celebration of literature everything looked just  like in Frankfurt and so it should be the 21

st century World culture  makes itself at home in Siberia that year all the questions and discussions  at my species in Europe were about the war however if a book fair in Russia people talked  about all kinds of things just not the war everyone was terribly interested in the new guide  to ancient Rome apparently I was the only person who spoke on stage about this fresh disaster this  silence was humiliating humiliating for everyone writers and readers both it was the final straw  I had no desir

e to return to that humiliation over the years of war that silence became  deafening and after 24th of February unbearable the Avalanche rewards never stops Apple book  festivals presentations of new guides transient Rome issues of thick literary magazines that  pretend everything's just okay courses on the ethereum practice of creative writing workshops  for Young Writers a nurture topics such as how to construe a plot and conflict heroes in  style an avalanche of Silence another launch of sile

nce and Carlos it's all one but one big  Master Class of the Russian culture of Silence talking out loud about other things is the Silence  with the back of the hand sounds for salvation Russian literature did not save people from the  gulag but it helped them survive in Gulag land and now they speak to the rescue once again a  Facebook from a well-known author who speaks for the readers and talks in Russia the audience at  the meeting is this grateful kind and attentive and something else a yea

r ago any word or  even peep about what was going on around us provokes stormy gratitude thank you thank  you for speaking lately it's been the exact opposite thank you for not speaking everyone  already knows everything we understand and we are tired the further away we can get from what  surrounds us the better destruction and relaxation if only for a short while unquote silence as  a way to survive silence as heir to breathe time in historical circumstances  alter our taste receptors at one t

ime in my youth the Russian Classics  kept me from choking on the Soviet lies the books on my shelf are the same  the Rhymes and evolutionary praise the latter is but the words mean something  completely different have a different taste I try to re-read my favorite Golden Age poets  and they are all stuffed with patriotic puke we can't help but be a traces of  the country in which we were raised all of us who were born from mosque to  their father's creatures were born and grew up in the Moscow

loose  the part of the golden horde Empire and even if we hated it we breathed  this air and when we talk about Russia's Imperial and Colonial it actually sounds like  a compliment for this endless bloody swamp since it puts our mask loose in the same category  as the British Empire we have to admit that a 21st century country is living by the law of the golden  horde at the top of the pyramid as the Han and Below him are his slaves with no right of speech  or property and the sole meaning and i

deology of the social order is power itself and the struggle  for power the ascensioned and sufficial condition for the candidate's Existence is violence  a candidate cannot be abolished by a decree any more than language cam over the course  of generations prison reality produced prison Behavior the Russian proverb says live with  wolves howl like wolves this was expressed in the language that was called upon to  service Russian life supporting it in a state of constant and ending war with the 

whole world and with itself when everyone lives by prison rules languages concern is  every person's war with every other person if the strong must necessarily beat the weak  language's concern is to do so verbally humiliate insult with glorations and degrade language  as a form of disrespect for the individual language as a means of destroying human dignity no  single other Empire has a verbal weapon like our more than just obscene mat language it's difficult  to explain to people in the world

because there is a new fish equivalent in their languages both  the power and the population have spoken this language which expresses the essence of Russian  life while the language of Russian literature is a foreign patch on the body of this um's  language the language of the Russian literature appeared in the 18th century when colonists  from the West brought other worldly concepts of liberte egalite and fraternity it was noted  long ago that the Russian State Isley King Midas just as everyt

hing then so everything  the Russian state touches turns [ __ ] and blood they try to extend their grasp  to everything they want to exploit and misuse they arrange worship for the Dead who they know  can't object and they think that in this instance the reflected light of the classics falls on  them too on the Putin regime on their special military operation quote unquote I have  no doubt also I would have sent a pseudo state to hell and demanded that throughout  the country in the literature r

oom of every school above the Blackboard his Port would be  replaced with his words patriotism is slavery would have been giving charity  concerts for wounded Ukrainian children would have repented for his disgraceful  taras's nonsense and be raising money for the Ukrainian Armed Forces  with lecturers all over the world with his Orthodox and humanism would have been  an Anchorman on that sargad channel after 24th of February only isolated individuals went out  to protest where are those marvelo

us desperate women and men who went down to defend the Dignity  of their people and their country now they are in prison or they have fled the people have been  silent the survival strategy for Generation has been silenced Western experts in Russia  attributed this absence of protist to fear s ity foreign as the title of the famous song in my childhood  ask the mothers as the soldiers who lie under the birch trees ask how the draftees rebelling  over the ammunition shortage we don't have enough

shells to [ __ ] the hell out of the shitty  yukes with Russia's populations and affected with a tribal Consciousness a childhood illness  of humanity that is cured by enlightened men in modern civilization the tribe has been replaced by  the individual who stands at the base of society I myself bear responsibility for the main decision  in life what is good and what is evil and in if my country my people are doing evil that means  I will be against my country and my people the tribal Consciousn

ess lacks the very  concept of individual responsibility for the choice between good  and evil Mother Russia calls in every Russian regime from autocracy or  thought of share and nationality to glory to the cbsu and Crimea is ours has always tried  to enforce the consciousness of being a tribe surrounded by animes our national political life  is only two seasons order stability and smoother turmoil generations of popular wisdom say that  if there is stability that means is the real Czar if there

is turmoil he isn't people don't  choose the Victor power as the sole source of Russian legitimacy he lost the Chechen War  so Boris is disgraceful drunkard he won so he the real Czar is in the Kremlin he annexed  Crimea so we have Putin means we have Russia he didn't beat the key of Nazis so he is a dwarf  and a bunker hidden behind the kilometer stick a kilometer long table Russia occupies territory  where historical time has stopped the country just can't make its way out of the past and  in

to the present and changing the calendar didn't help here the failure to take hee of the  lack of a victory in the Ukrainian War that's a sure sign is not the real Czar the country  held its breath when precautions tanks were approaching Moscow 400 300 200 kilometers from  the Kremlin the Wagner men were greeted with flowers and ice cream and rostov and precaution  had everything he needed to declare himself the news are power that no one even tried to resist  it was flesh of their flesh he had

sniffed the smell of prison the Russian nose knows so well  and the conant's native language gushed from him most important he was the only one of the  Putin's generals where the victory has troops is not yet ready for Russia unfortunately no  one is coming to Moscow in an Abram's tank and the historic sounds Germany was lucky that  Colonel staufenberg did not blow up Hitler the nazification was carried out by the occupation  Powers not gestap a man NATO commandants are not going to be hanging p

osters of murdered  Ukrainian children this is your fault this is your Town's fault and remote Russian towns as  the Americans did in post-war Germany there's no Nuremberg on the Russian map there won't be any  Russian national repentance the post-poutines ongoing to be getting down then is in butcher  mariable drug Budapest villainous foreign that's not what tsars do accordingly there will be  no martial plan on the other hand there will be a handshake where the first Gremlin ruler who  promise

s the West oversight over Russia's Rusty nuclear Arsenal after one presidential campaign  speech navalny was approached by someone who said Alexa I like what you are saying I like you but  first become president and then I'll vote for you to introduce democracy to Russia  you first have to become a czar but becoming one means becoming a czar the  actor plays the part but can change it for the foreseeable future the Russian  Federation has turned into an radioactive zone for culture the universit

y presidents  Museum and Library directors and theater and film directors who came out openly in  support of the special military operation uh made themselves into war criminals but they don't  have to worry there will be no illustration and they don't believe in punishment on the Judgment  Day Naturally by supporting the war they try to save their museums libraries and  theaters kiss their villains hand and then spit they by betraying himself in order to save his  theater the director will not

be able later to fulfill his calling in the theater you can  save yourself or your theater through betrayal culture as human dignity form of existence you  can wash off the dirt and sweat but how do you wash off the silence where is the dividing  line between a silence for salvation and meanness strong shelves have life as 28 years  cesium is 30. what is the half-life of meanness Putin's war is being waged against Ukraine and  Russia they are destroying culture they are destroying the country th

e people are silent and  not their head on the Block as usual inside the design knows best only speech can oppose silence  free speech is itself an act of resistance in Russia you can either sing patriotic songs or  be silent or immigrate immigration is an act of resistance but the free Russian speech  that opposes the kanite breathe its air you have to breathe out exhale this air from your  lungs we have to free ourselves from the canine inside us words are a Fail-Safe system for telling  frien

d from Full words uh pre Baltic on your brain words uh like great Russian literature we have  to hook up and buy like verbal flag can Russian culture exist outside its own territory what makes  us different from the immigration a century or the goal is the opportunity to use high tech I always  think how lost how cut off from the centers of the Russian immigration Berlin and Paris some  literary Circle and Harbin must have felt but now you're riding on a train somewhere in Africa  and if you hav

e Wi-Fi you are in the center of Russian culture maybe this is a chance for a  marvelous rusher of the future where we have Checkers and Rachmaninoff but no puji no pregos in  that country is located in the virtual world and maybe not be able to exist offline as a matter  of principle my Russia is a country that has declared its independence from the sovereign's  boot my Russia does not require legalization or a passport my rusher is made legitimate  by the breath of the person who lives by Russ

ian culture the capital of Russian culture is  anywhere we are as bad as consumers and creators all over the world but how long can a language  live in Immigration we have the experience of The post-revolutionary Exodus the children still  spoke Russian the grandchildren didn't we have our own experience our children still speak  Russian with us but will our grandchildren apparently we Russians are not able to preserve  the Russian language and culture even for a third generation the Russian imm

igration does not have  the foundation that allowed the Jews to preserve themselves over the Millennia the Jews have  language and God Russians have only language and does that mean slavists are going to be  studying literature in a dead language like latinists the population of our historical  Homeland is always going to produce native speech like that porridge from a Magic Pot  in the famous fairy tale and no one is gonna shout at them to stop making it the flow of  fresh verbal blood from Rus

sia isn't going to stop broadsky Sasha sakalova originated in  the Soviet dish ditch water just as the river finds itself in a channel so language always  finds itself a poet what is Russian culture for only a text can restore dignity  to Russian literature the text as a tone man and it has to be written  not by an Emmy gray but by someone who sat in a trench in Ukraine asking himself who  am I what am I doing here what is this war for why are we Russian fascists will this  text ever be written

God knows thank you especially the UFC previous tour the  virtual especially Robert is sorry that's that's in the sense of the shared [Music]  personal responsibility for the world around them and thank you very  much University for making this possible I'm going to start with a very  controversial quote or rather reference to a to a quote reference  to someone by the name of Leon Trotsky he said that the greatest historical philosophical and psychological work of our time will  be written by th

e commission of inquiry and from here I will jump to year 1974. in the day  in the Diary of Andrei saharov and Ileana Bonner there is an entry that opens this year with a Reflections on the expulsion or rather  record of an expulsion of Lee De chukovska and Vladimir weinovich from the Union of Soviet  writers foreign it records a 48 hour search in Kiev in the apartment of Victor nikrasov in  which his entire Archive of a writer was arrested the diary continues with an entry about the  arrests of

Victor Nikki pelov and Sergey piragov both dissidents and human rights activists in the  Soviet Union and the diary marks the beginning in the Soviet press over virulent anti-soldrenitum  campaign following the publication of the gulag archipelago in the West I quote on the evening  of February 12 a friend called to say that so Renaissance flat was raided by eight men  who took him to the prosecutor's office Lucia that is sakharov's wife Lucia and I hailed  down a private car driver on the stre

et and in 15 minutes we were at the social Nations place in  kazinski Lane it was full of people very soon it becomes clear that socialism is not to be found  at the prosecutor's office he is under arrest I respond to some of the phone calls says saharov  the nervous shake-up and the sense of tragic significance broke my usual dry and lame tongue  tightness and I find simple and strong words end of quote from the diary in the wee hours of  February 13 saharaf and Bonner came back home together w

ith Bible neutrinov Baris schragen  and father sergekov they were all stirred all believed something must be done but no one  knew what exactly someone uttered an appeal to appeal for what at long lasting the excited and  troubled dispute sober thoughts began to surface and the future Moscow appeal began to take  shape with demands of freedom for Souls Renaissance and creation of an international  tribunal to investigate the crimes against humanity committed in the Soviet Union crimes  that were

exposed by the gulag archipelago with Ileana Bonner at her typewriter Bible  nitrine of and Barista Dragon dictated the appeal they were going back and forth between the room  and the kitchen to Iron Out sentences and even single words with the others by early morning  the text was ready signed by all present in the sacrament bonus place most ignitions were  collected by phone dated February 13 1974 the Moscow appeal was signed by Andrei saharov  Ileana Bono Vladimir maximov Michael agurski Bar

is schragen Pavel Litwin of Yuri orlov father sergeo  lutkov and Natalie marchenko Larissa bagaras this appeal the original is now housed  at the Andrei saharov archive in Moscow by the morning everyone has left soccer of dozed  off on the kitchen court near his wife who stayed on the phone with the foreign journalist for two  hours dictating their appeals text at about noon the news came of those Renaissance arrival in the  West the Moscow appeal became suspended in mid-air so Renaissance was f

ree and it was now impossible  to explain the iniquity of what happened even though the appeal was widely covered in the Press  but the idea of the tribunal faded away soon and it only surfaced again in the 1990s with  the creation of Memorial society and the failed Communist Party trial one tangible  result was a black and white sweater knit by Warner's mother Ruth over the sleepless  night it was dubbed social needs some sweater however there was another result perhaps more  tangible if not Ma

terial in October 1975 the first International Sahara of hearings took place  in Copenhagen it focused on Soviet and Eastern European violations of international human rights  standards the hearings were described as one of the most established tools for informing the West  about the situation with human rights in the USSR the hearings have varied considerably however in  breadth and depth The 1975 Copenhagen hearings publicized violations of the final act on the  of the conference on security a

nd cooperation in Europe the so-called Helsinki declaration  the 1977 Rome hearings dealt with Soviet and Eastern European human rights violations the  1979 Washington DC hearings addressed labor union and workers right in the Soviet Union and  Eastern Europe the 1983 Lisbon hearings addressed oppression of creative workers in the Soviet Union  and the state of Martial law in Poland the last 1985 London hearings returned to the specifics  of the Helsinki declaration drawing on human rights exper

ts as well as Witnesses whose rights  were violated and or denied it was challenging to organize the first the first hearings it was a new  initiative and people of different political views and agendas had different ideas and opinions about  the hearings goals and objectives to clarify the task and the mission of this International  Forum to prevent future misrepresentations Sakura formulated its principles and  appointed uh iframe which my main husband as his representative generally  and also

with regards to the Sahara of hearings to ensure that the principles  that he had formulated are observed throughout all the subsequent hearings which  played an important organizing and conceptual role earning respect and admiration of his colleagues  and Sacramento's approval and appreciation Sahara believed his Representatives logical  mind knowledge and absolute Integrity ensured the exclusion of any false unsubstantiated  or sensationalist testimony and the focus on significant issues it g

ives me special pleasure  today to see here Mario karti ephraim's friend and soccer of hearings comrade in arms and also  the force behind the 1977 hearings in Rome Mario fully embraced Sahara of vision  of the hearings guiding spirit and was closely involved in the  shaping of subsequent sessions Sahara felt that the success of the Rome hearings  end of the later ones in Washington Lisbon and London was due to the integrity and efforts of the  organizers such as Mario karti and the freemian the

organizers arguably saw the  hearings as a critical companion to the process initiated by the signing  of the Helsinki final agreement in 1975. now I want to reflect on the nature of the  hearings all of the hearings had a dual nature each of them was steeped in a particular setting  and each hearing's unique features reflected its National political cultural and time-related  context and yet the international soccer of hearings were an obvious and original case of  transnationalism they all ha

d shared features they were a series of hearings organized by  non-state actors taking place in five different capitals each hearing involved organizers sponsors  participants who were in turn Witnesses panel members audience and chairman and even funding  originating from non-state actors in different countries such as Bible smuggling groups National  Endowment for democracy when it came to the United States other foundations charitable foundations  trade unions private individuals they had a b

road impact throughout through the international media  coverage moreover the hearings were all part of one single transnational process the first hearing  would not have taken place without the Moscow appeal none of the subsequent hearings would have  been imaginable without the previous ones and there was a basic continuity between the hearings  not just the name but also the concept the organization the overall theme several individuals  many networks and milieu remained the same Simon visent

al took part in all five  hearings he summed up their significance and impact as follows I had never attended  an event with greater International impact and we can now look back with appreciation on  the imprint left by the hearings that in a short 10-year time opened the eyes and the minds of  the free and liberal world to the reality of the lawlessness of the Soviet totalitarianism and the  person's defenselessness before an all-powerful state the hearings overcame its murky Origins and  chao

tic beginning managed to broaden its political appeal to gain respectability and legitimacy  and even um access to influential political actors both at State and non-state levels this was  June primarily to a few Theory Souls the hearings seem to have had an impact on many levels they  were among numerous Endeavors aimed at putting a spotlight on human rights violations in the  Soviet Bloc however they stood out for their persistence the diversity and occasionally the  weight of their actors and

contributors they're obstinate and sometimes successful attempts to  join forces with politically influential actors for their contribution to putting saharov and  other persecuted dissidents high on the East-West political agenda the international soccer of  hearings ought to be taken into consideration when discussing the Helsinki process of ultimate  importance for the success and credibility of the hearings as well as their legitimacy were  several principles pioneered by saharov they were

exclusion of confrontational called  Warrior anti-communist rhetoric use of Human Rights language no Witnesses  with extremist views unethical stand or untrustworthiness no sensationalist claims no  intolerance or prejudices no propagandistic tone these prison principles remain valid today when  we Face a very different world and they can and must be applied to our work for the renewal  for the re-establishment of the hearings summer of hearings meant a great deal to  me given the part my family

and especially if Yemen cleavage played in the hearings  that opened the eyes of the Free World to the plight of human rights in the  world struggling to become free the Copenhagen hearings showed that never  before had such a major so-called International citizens tribunal concerning human rights  violations in the Soviet Union taken place it increased International focus on Andrei  sakharov and his human rights agenda it happened despite considerable Soviet pressure on the Danish  government

and other institutions and despite wavering in some political quarters the five  sacral of hearings taken as a whole were original by their organization longevity and political  orientation they resulted in the most important hearing concerning human rights violations in  the Soviet Union ever organized they offer an interesting example of a sphere for transnational  political debate involving a large number of Western groups and individuals supportive of  Soviet block dissidents key 20th centur

y human rights figures like saharov and vicental were  involved in all five hearings and many prominent prominent exiled Soviet dissidents as well as some  Eastern European dissidents played important roles in this 21st century I decided to introduce the  idea for the hearings Revival that was I have done so in 2018 well before the coronavirus pandemic  and with different Focus from today though not entirely unrelated by that time by 2018 the threat  posed by Putin's Russia to the Western democr

acies to International stability and peace to the  nation's right of self-determination and to the very core of fundamental human rights has become  obvious however today we Face a crisis of totally different proportions we have to contemplate  our responsibility in the context of war crimes and crimes against humanity unprecedented in  Europe since the end of World War II in 1945 the Nuremberg Tribunal prompted the search for  new types of international legal proceedings to cope with the new ho

rrors of the 20th century the  tribunal was designed not only to punish criminals but also to deter future crimes as Justin as  Justice Robert Jackson chief U.S Chief United States prosecutor at Nuremberg claimed in his  open is in his opening statement the wrongs which we seek to condemn and punish have been  so calculated so malignant and devastating That civilization cannot tolerate their being ignored  because it cannot survive that being repeated non-governmental human rights tribunals proc

eed  from a SP from a similar sense of urgency they extend the spirit of Nuremberg to condemn a  wide range of government repression as Criminal non-governmental tribunals resembled the Nuremberg  proceedings as they bring charges against government officials appeal to public opinion and  have to face criticism the Nuremberg International Military Tribunal considered three charges against  Nazi leaders crimes against peace war crimes and crimes against humanity each of the charges  but especiall

y the last has important human rights implications as noted in article 6 of the  tribunal's charter crimes against humanity include murder extermination enslavement deportation and  other inhuman acts committed against any civilian population before or during the war or persecution  on political racial racial or religious grounds all three charges to the Nazi leaders are present  in the case of Russia's invasion of Ukraine the Third charge of crimes against youth  against humanity is particularl

y Grievous we all know and grieve the loss of life  especially the lives of the very young I wish to refresh in your mind and memory the  very meaning of crimes against humanity concept for those of us who grew up in the Soviet Union  the meaning was completely obscured by the official ideological propaganda as was its purpose  it switched and made meaningless many Concepts emasculated them by substituting something obscure  and vague as a result I will say it in Russian became productive humank

ind and humaneness crimes against against the entire human  community and crime against kindness Martin Luther King said once that a crime  committed against one human being is Con is committed against the entire humankind the  entire Humanity the service apparatics once again hollowed out the meaning of this profound concept  by this underhanded and cynical switch over let's make it 100 clear crimes  committed by Russian troops in bucha luhansk Journey severeign and other towns amount to unspea

kable  deliberate cruelty and violence against Ukrainian civilians and thus qualify as  crimes against humanity and war crimes according to the data from the um United  Nations office of commission of Human Rights uh High Commissioner on human rights  as of exactly one month ago uh on in August 18 2023 the total number of Ukrainian  and Russian troops killed or wounded is nearing 500 000. with Russian military casualties  approaching 300 000. the number Inc this the number includes as many as 12

0 deaths  and 100 I'm sorry uh 120 000 deaths and 100 uh seventy thousand two about 180 000 Indian  troops the Ukrainian figures are close to 70 000 killed and 100 000 to 120 000 wounded as to  the Ukrainian civilian casualties of this war from February 24 2022 the UN Office of the high  Commission of a human rights recorded 27 and 149 as the total civilian casualties of those over  17 and a half thousand injured severely affecting the rest of their life and almost 10 000 lost  their lives the o

ffice of High Commission on human rights believes that the actual figures are  considerably higher as the receipt of information from locations of intense and hostilities has  been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration allegations of numerous civilian  casualties come from Marion Police [Music] among other occasions rape murder and  other violent acts against people in the Russian forces custody must  be investigated as war crimes both Ukraine and Russia are parties to the 194

9  Geneva conventions and protocol 1 International humanitarian law or the laws of war which provides  protection to civilians and other non-compatants from the hazards of armed conflict IT addresses  the conduct of hostilities the means and methods of Warfare by all parties to a conflict foremost  is the rule that civilians may never be deliberate Target of attacks international human rights  law remains in effect and continues to apply at all times including during armed conflict and  occupati

on to which the laws of war also apply Ukraine and Russia are both party to several  human rights treaties including the European convention on human rights the international  Covenant on civil and political rights and the convention Against torture and other cruel  inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment these treaties outline guarantees of fundamental  rights such as the prohibition on torture and in human and degrading treatment the right to  non-discrimination the right to a fair trial

rights to which combatants and civilians are  entitled under International humanitarian law today it may seem unattainable dream to bring  Russia and its ruling Elite led by Vladimir Putin to the international criminal court in The  Hague but and I'd like to quote Sergey kovaleov a do what you must and be what may be that means  that we must start laying the groundwork for the Justice to be carried out ultimately even if we do  not live to see it done the international criminal court and the Hag

ue has jurisdiction over four  categories of crimes under international law uh genocide or the intent to destroy in whole  or in part a national ethnic racial or religious group war crimes or grave breaches of the laws of  war including the Geneva conventions prohibitions on torture crimes against humanity or violations  committed as part of large-scale attacks against civilian population including murder rape  imprisonment slavery and torture and four crimes of aggression or the use of threat o

f  Armed Force by a State against the territorial Integrity sovereignty or political independence  of another state or violations of the U.N Charter all four of these categories were  documented to have been committed by the Russian armed forces in Ukraine there are  several obstacles to the initiation of criminal proceedings neither Ukraine nor Russia are members  of the Roman Rome statute having signed but not ratified it should Ukraine become the member of  the European Union or ratify the Ro

me statute it will have a better chance to bring charges against  Russia as an investigation can be opened against individuals from non-member States if they alleged  offenses took place in the member States territory to open an investigation the prosecutor must find  that they alleged crimes are of sufficient gravity I am confident that there is enough proof of  that the re-established Sahara of hearings will be a powerful tool to raise the public awareness  of the scale and gravity of crimes c

ommitted in Ukraine non-governmental tribunals are tribunals  of conscience and their legitimacy depends upon public reaction the Russell tribunal on Vietnam  for example argued in the words of one of the judges lilio lilio basso our serious work the  evidence which we have accumulated the testimonies which we have brought to the knowledge of the  public the search for the truth which we have together pursued has in the eyes of public opinion  legitimized our existence if we are successful in ou

r efforts to document crimes against humanity  allegedly committed by Russian armed forces in Ukraine the public will assume legal and  moral responsibility to keep Nuremberg alive this will be done through tribunals in which  principles derived from war crimes proceedings are applied to cases of human rights violations these  principles include the superior responsibility the obligation of individuals to obey international  law even if to do so conflicts the with the orders of superiors and the

conception that  international law is flexible and dynamic the primary target of the Nuremberg and post Nuremberg  appeals has been the public conscience lawyers in the western tradition are often uncomfortable  with the view that law has a moral component but we must not shy away from passing moral  judgment as it is the essential if not the only criteria for a just fair and Humane verdict the  revived Sahara of hearings can only be successful if they gain respectability and legitimacy to  ens

ure this the jury must be of broad political Spectrum whose objectivity credibility and  high moral Authority are universally recognized our primary and the most vital task is to  establish the international suffer of hearings as the groundwork for the future tribunal of crimes  committed by Russia in Ukraine there is no doubt in my mind that this work is absolutely necessary  for the worldwide effort to help Ukraine rebuild the country and the Ukrainian citizens rebuild  their lives but also fo

r the citizens of Russia to face Russia's and their own horrific past  and to assume the Civic and human responsibility our fulfillment of this task will legitimize  our existence and will serve the greater good of humanity while perpetuating the legacy of  Andrei saharov thank you very much [Applause] thank you very much Tatiana we are now going  for coffee break for half an hour so we're a little bit ahead of time but that is  you know as an organizer I loved it uh but before you go I would li

ke to um point out  that there are reports that you can get um in the lobby in the coffee area this is the report that  is out there of the Sahara of conference that we had in May here in Vilnius on Ukraine how to win  a lasting piece and there is also a new report which came just from the printer this morning  political abuse of psychiatry in Russia 2023 the report will be presented officially next  week in Vienna at the World Congress of the world Psychiatric Association and again this is a ki

nd  of a historical coincidence because it's exactly 40 years ago that in the same city in Vienna  the Russian Society was excluded from the world psychedic Association because of this abuse and  now the question is again in front of us Russia is still a full member of the world psychiatic  Association in spite of the war in Ukraine and so maybe this report will bring up the discussion  again thank you I'll see you back in half an hour foreign and Sir Andrew Wood thank you [Applause] ah right go

od morning everybody good morning distinguished panel I'm really very  happy and honored to moderate this discussion this morning because we have very distinguished  guests it is called diplomats panel diplomats discussion and we have uh sir Andrew Wood  who is a long-serving British Diplomat and now associate fellow at Chatham House he has you  have been posted to Moscow on three occasions and you continue to be an observer of what is  happening in Russia we have a Hano himanen who is ambassado

r of Finland and who you have  also been posted to Russia on three occasions I believe but you have also worked in in other  postings among which at the UN organizations in Asia and elsewhere and now you are a fellow at  Center for international Affairs at Harvard and also have worked at International Security  governance East-West Institute in Prague we have Ambassador John teft who is a long-serving  Foreign Service Officer of the United States and you have also served in Moscow and  among oth

ers also in Lithuania in Georgia and Ukraine and you are now a senior  Feller a fellow at toront Corporation and we have Hans wrestling who is a diplomat of  the Netherlands and who has also been posted to Russia uh and working on political and economic  Affairs as well and you have also worked with peacekeeping and peace building issues with  the European Union and with the osce in in the Balkans and also in Georgia but also at the  Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands so um we are ve

ry happy to have you here  because you are experts not only on Russia but also on the Diplomatic World on how  the world is governed day in and day out and today that the general question that  we are asking is Will Russia survive 2024 but you have some very precious knowledge of of  on Russia because you have observed it from inside and the question when we are asking ourselves will  Russia survive we want to know what is happening in Russia what has happened in Russia and what can  possibly ha

ppen so your insights are very precious and at the same time we are asking ourselves  the question whether um yeah whether there is potential for change in Russia what is the future  in Russia and also is there a possibility at one point sometime to uh to continue to talking  to Russia in the 90s we thought that Russia was European and was thinking very much like us  today we see that probably not so much of course I assume that we all agree that in the war we we  know that Ukraine must win and

Russia must lose but uh still the question it remains on what terms  and how and what would a defeated Russia look like so um sir Andrew Wood what what are  your thoughts on this please sure um can I first of all thank the first  two two speakers to this conference for illustrating very properly why the real  traitor to Russia is called Vladimir Putin and secondly for the excellent discussion  about the role that the sakharov hearings had in earlier days I've always  been struck by the way that

in the Soviet times at least until it was  building up towards the end there was a a habit of speaking to the good and to the bad  for individual people engaged in human rights and engaged in properly understanding what  was wrong or in rate in in the Soviet Union in which we rather Miss now we  are looking at the way things are develop in a general way but we're  not so tuned to speaking about um the nature of the people in in  in Russia and where that's going can I just say as a general thing

to  quote from a new book by said again which says the essential that I would like  to say which is without a radical solution to the Russia problem Global  Security cannot be guaranteed I say that because if you look at um what has been done by Putin over  the last uh well it's almost 23 years um you see a a a a settlement or a disposition to  focus on disciplining the thoughts and feelings of Russians themselves and adherence  to the threat of of of War essentially in in its relationship with

um the rest  of the world but particularly the West the effect on of this on International  status of Russia um and uh is the Trust on what will happen in in 2024 um  is more or less United we all tend to assume though I do not that what we will have is that A  variation slight variation on the the Putin system will be put in place I have two objections to  that that is the Russians now will know that 2024 means six more years that means  a continuation of what is the repression of thinking and

habiting  inhabiting in in Russia itself it's also a reflection of the fact that  the actual succession Machinery in Russia in terms of the president is obscure it's  written down the Prime Minister will come on and three months later there will be an  election well we all know that won't the Prime Minister himself won't have anything  to do with it it would be an attempt by the people in the middle to make decisions for the uh  population with where they wish or not to enact the effect of Russi

ans Russia's policy  under Putin has in fact been to make it more both power hungry and impotent the way that Russia now operates is on the  basis of one man plus a few other men and their nominees to be to be made to obey one  result of that is the terrible War that they've uh decided on against Ukraine and the extremely  incompetent way in which it's been been effective another result is the sheer cruelty and stupidity  of the way they have put it in in in purpose I cannot believe myself that

any Ukrainian  will forget if the world was so unhappy as Russia to overcome Ukraine and try and establish  it in its own condition no Ukraine Ukrainian will will forget that and nor will it produce  a situation which Russia itself can repair Russia hardly has the equipment and the resources  to run itself the idea that it should rebuild Ukraine is is lunatic it's it's not going  to happen it will just spread Russia's ill purposes to Ukraine but it would not  actually be a victory in a real sens

e for Russia itself over Ukraine the peace proposals that have been put  forward before the uh the west or said this is what we will grant and and we  would respect that and so on our also because of the ill purpose that the Russia  has been exercised and because Russia is now a a threat to the rest of the world  not things we cannot agree to what Russia would benefit from  most is a Ukrainian victory which would lead to Russia  itself beginning to think properly about the way it should rule its

elf manage itself and make it a  government of the people not the people a small group at the top telling them what to do I think what we have in instead is  the risk of a widening widening War we couldn't we can't I've already said  we can't really negotiate with Russia as it wishes to picture itself no it would be  are indeed to face up to a an increasing War but it is essential that we do and I believe  that if we do we will be able to help Ukraine which has the right in this matter to produc

e a  system which as I said will be beneficial to them but also in the end the  people of Russia themselves I think I said at the beginning that I would speak  more if I was hadn't been so accidentally spoken to before and I don't wish to repeat all that  but at present it is very serious and essentially insoluble problem a lot depends on what happens  to the Putin regime itself in the nearest Future it seems to me that the likelihood in my eyes  of the it coming to a reasonably chaotic end and

to the end which is feared by many Russians  or even Civil War by not predicting that I just see incompetence and difficult  difficulty and that leading to uh a different succession than simply Putin again Putin will either last through from 2024 and  the mess that that will create will increase or he will come out Pete first and a  bit earlier than that or a a possibly Mayhem of generate a series of chaotic decisions and and competition within  Russia itself leading to uh the the time of of tro

ubles of a similar nature I hope not  too much but it which begins to to change the idea of the people of Russia as to what they  should permit and what they should follow and obey without that um we can't we won't go in and beat Russia  as though we were attacking Nazi Germany but there's a lot that we can do by helping  Ukraine on behalf of the whole of the West to force Russia at least to  begin thinking more creatively and argumentatively or through discussion  or whatever you want to call i

t then it is able to do now there is no reason for  Russia to be paralyzed in its present condition and in that I would also add it gives us a duty  to hope for that in favor of the Russian people and for a them to have a say and a right to  the to say of their future I think that's about thank you thank you very much Ambassador  if I may come back on one point uh we've been very negative about Russia and pessimistic  about Russia and about possibility of of change if I heard correctly you also

said that Putin  is power hungry and inputted at the same time you've you've worked in Russia you've met Russians  as well and we are we see different strands in the Russian Society we have you know the right-wingers  who are pro-war we have those who support Putin we have the society which is brainwashed but we  talk very little about bureaucrats about the state apparatus who continues functioning do you see any  potential that could come out of that or if one if Putin goes away do the Russians

have potential  inside their state apparatus to for change well some Russians are very happy with the  present situation if you enjoy a being an FSB man not all of them do but a lot of people think that  it's the right way to run things whether it's working or not and if it's not working to increase  the the pressure on the population as a whole uh hence the uh increase and rise  in Russia or the use of torture of imprisonment the complete lack of law the  uh there are laws but they're not obey

ed um the idea that that the state should run  the economy meaning you if you're in in a circuit you're going to get the savings from  that or the money from that and so on and so forth is preserved and that the only political  thing you're committed to is either Warfare or um pretending to be prepared for one  and getting yourself ready for one and defining the West as completely  um Out Of Tune with any reality uh that is is nonsensical when you do that  because you've reduced it to one thing

I think that the the uh the polling for for  inclusion if analyzed carefully has become uh less persuasive than it was before by a fairly  considerable degree that the younger the the Russians the more they recognize the the future  of Russia is is not going to be kind to them that um it's not anyway natural for for people to  be totally obedient and we saw in the case of the uh the random uh well no not the  random the huge spread of protest which occurred after the  navalny um Caesar and subse

quent torture that there is a sensibility in Russia  of people's right to to run their own lives there is a difference between Russians living  outside the major cities and there's inside because outside is less affected by that and  they they have their lives to to live and and and it's not as good as it could be but  it's not something for them to protest about but a nation has a long history not a  short history and I believe that that the prospect of having another six years of Putin  being

cheated into power is disturbing for them okay thank you thank you very much Ambassador himanen what what is your  take on all these questions well I will start with today's  question will Russia survive 2024 I believe it most certainly will however by  engaging in a bloody and aggressive War against Ukraine President Putin and his inner circle  have sown the seeds of their own destruction sooner or later this war will lead to  the collapse of the putiness regime but this may unfortunately take

a much longer time  than any one of us would like to see a force the collapse of the regime does not say much about  Russia's future so what lies ahead of Russia for Russia last night I was sitting around a small  table with some of some of the speakers of today and mihai shishkin whose essay was fascinating  suggested a toast for Russia's future so we toasted but his question was really  shrewd what is that future nobody knows the kremlin's tactic now is to prolong the  wall at least until the

end of 2024. [Music] Mr Putin puts a lot of Hope on  the U.S presidential election he hopes to influence the outcome  and see Donald Trump win for Russia waging a wall of attrition without any concern for  the last loss of Russian lives is an easy tactic that is why I don't think Russia would be ready  for serious peace negotiations much before 2025 many in the west have characterized  Putin's Behavior as irrational if one believes that Russia's objectives are  limited to Ukraine only one might

see put in behaving in an income comprehensible way however I  believe his actions have a clear logic behind them his Ambitions go much Beyond Ukraine itself for  sure he wants to destroy and subjugate Ukraine but this is only a first step for Mr Putin his long-term objective is to change the world  order as we have come to know know it since 1945 he rejects international law  and the rules rules-based order he speaks in concert with China's  president XI of a multi-polar world that could would

replace the U.S  controlled unipolar world as they Define it they want us they want special privileges  for great Powers spheres of Interest they want to see a world dominated and ruled by great  powers over the heads of small and medium States this is not going to happen I believe as the  United West remains committed to helping Ukraine Ukraine is fighting an existential War not only  for itself but for Western democracy and values I don't see a change likely or even possible  in this regard we

will not start bending on the Russian pressure or calculating and balancing  between supporting Ukraine and appeasing Russia assuming that this analysis is correct the  consequences for our relations with Russia are Grim indeed I don't see a return to normal  it's going to be a different future we should not Harbor any Illusions Mr Putin should not be  offered in a convenient off-ramp to escape the war I see a protracted period of deep  freeze in our relations with Russia for Ukraine the Russia

n tactic prolonging the  war makes winning the war all the more difficult even if Ukraine would manage to take back its  legitimate territory with Western military help including crime here the wall would not end it  would continue along the re-established borderline creating a situation in which we could  even begin to think about reconstructing a mutually beneficial by bilateral  relationship will take a long time its most important precondition is a  fundamental political change in Russia I'm

not saying this lightly the consequences  are severe and the perspective dismal it is not for us to make things happen in Russia  Russians themselves will have to determine what sort of future they wish to see for their  country a young British scholar Jade McGlynn published an interesting book in May called  Russia's War the title is a reflection of her conviction that this is Russia's War not  Putin's War whatever that that exactly means um the book is in general rather gloomy but  she ends t

he book with some interesting uh observations and I quote briefly rather  than silently acquiesce to it Russians as a people could loudly reject an identity that  requires amorality apathy and abnegation a reality to avoid cognitive dissonance they would they  could invest in developing themselves instead of ins rather than destroying others and I think  that could be sort of something that we should contemplate thank you thank you Ambassador  um if I may you are saying that uh Putin is is also

a tactician an enable player despite of  you know all the irrationality that we ascribe to him looking forward to the elections talking to  China to Iran North Korea and as you were saying doing the long-term objective of a different  world order now the question is whether the West is ready for that do we have a plan for this new  world order or do we know at least how to devise this plan do we have potential standing up to  Russia that's a good question at the moment I am rather skeptical even

though Western unity and  determination to support Ukraine I think took not only Putin but but the West Itself by surprise we  were used to being very skeptical about unifying the West for any any major objective but we  don't have a strategy even today so I don't think I mean complacency and and sort of um not a very determined attitude to uh to make sure  that the rules-based order sustains you cannot do it it's of course you could say that for instance  in Africa there is a battle going on a

nd the brics group was enlarged and many other uh let's say  states of the South are still looking to joining bricks but we the West has preached  democracy to countries to whom democracy is is not a major question their troubles  are elsewhere and of course dictatorial regimes in the South just like to join  Russia and China in their effort to to to have a different kind of world order so  I think there there is a very acute need for a strategy for the West I don't see it yet and for  the time

being I find it difficult to see that it would this determination would be found soon  yeah thank you there are things to think about Ambassador attempt thanks very much Amelia I  do I'm glad to be here and glad to be on this panel with some old friends we've all three of us  have worked I've worked with each of these men in different capacities over the course of my career  it's great to be with them all um I broadly agree with what Andrew and Hano have said so I'm not  going to go over that bu

t maybe I'll pick up on hano's last Point strategy and uh I think you said  I told people I worked for the Rand corporation which is we have people hard at work now trying  to figure out uh what the future of Ukraine is the future of security whether they're members of NATO  how you deal with that how you reconstruct Ukraine but there's also work going on in Washington  uh among a number of I think probably in the government but I'm not in government so I can't  tell you what what they're thinki

ng but I can tell you that I've been involved in a couple of  discussion groups among Think Tank people and uh it's what's come to be known in Washington  as alternate futures for Russia that meaning uh you know what is the future of Russia after  the war now this doesn't necessarily mean that Vladimir Putin is out and that somebody else is  in in fact one of the study groups I was in uh consolidated a set of options into three broad  categories and I thought I would share that and say a few wor

ds about that to contribute to the  discussion uh the first approach or category is uh what's called aggressive this is basically a  continuation of where we are now President Putin and the Russian leadership continue to prosecute  the war they hope Ukraine will falter they hope Western support will erode in this scenario  Russian remains hostile toward the United States towards Europe and represents really A continuing  threat to the International Community including in the broadest sense tryin

g to undermine  the Western model which Hanover spoke about the liberal Democratic model the second broad  category is What's called the chaotic approach this is the Putin regime gives way to an extended  period of instability chaos infighting and a lack of clear or unified leadership in the country  there's lots of dangers in this in this movement or in this particular category it's not clear how  things would go the third uh is what was called in the paper that I'm working off of the liberaliz

ing  approach new leadership emerges in Russia which is more conciliatory it's more interested in  de-escalating tensions ending the war and restoring Russia's economic access its vitality  and its place in European politics now obviously this particular this last one would involve I  think a new generation coming to power that's not as wedded to the imperialistic Notions that Putin  and his team have tried to propagate in pursuing this horrible War uh and all of the suffering  that they have ca

used inside of Ukraine this would be a situation where a younger generation  which was not developed as the last of the Soviet generation it's not colored by all of those things  that I think we all know that Vladimir Putin was impacted by both in the KGB and is growing up in  Leningrad but that they would have a different approach they would look at the west and in Europe  as a is really part of Russia's future now each of these three categories uh you can and and we have  done whole sets of ki

nd of sub-options and with each one of those you can have variants to the  point where pretty soon you've kind of lost kind of where you are because nobody knows the answers  we don't know how the war is going to end we don't know we obviously hope that Ukraine will win and  that the that the aggression will be thrilled back that Ukraine's territorial integrity and  sovereignty uh is restored as President Biden said in his speech yesterday at the general assembly  but we don't know that and then

beyond that what do we expect to happen in Russia and more  specifically what can we to the West U.S Europe do about it and that gets even more complicated  because it you have to base it on assumptions anyway I'm not saying that this is impossible but  uh it's it's very very hard I was uh reading an interview the other day that the oligarch  oligarapaska gave to RBC television and uh uh I I focused on it because he described Russia  today as facing changes that are far more serious than what t

he country experienced back in the 90s  after the demise of the Soviet Union their apostka was very clear in saying that the continuation of  expanding the state share of the Russian economy was stupid it was a big mistake he dates it from  2008 others can do different dates but he says and this is the punch line anything that is State  can't produce a competitive product or service this is exactly opposite it seems to me what  Vladimir Putin has been doing particularly uh over the recent years

certainly when I was in  in Moscow but I think even during the war it's becoming more and more state in the end he said  Russia Today is on a journey into the unknown in the studies that I've been working on or  the discussion groups one of the things that we focus on is not just Ukraine Russia and not  just some of the specifics of what the future of Russia is like people get into the whole  question of how do you deal with Russia and China both in their opposition to the in to the  Democratic

liberal order but then people get into very specific questions of As you move through  particularly if you get into a chaotic situation what does it what does the nuclear uh situation  look like and you get immediately pushed into some really tough questions and I think everybody at  least in the groups that I'm involved with wants very much to see not the not only the war  end in the proper way human rights restored uh people brought to justice for the horrible  war crimes which were discussed

earlier today but at the same time people want to make sure  that the international order is stabilized the the nuclear in particular uh component is is  managed in a way so that it doesn't cause even greater damage and we can talk some more about  that if you'd like um and then ultimately there's the question of what is the security situation  vis-a-vis Ukraine one of the issues that I've been having discussions with some of my friends  here in in Lithuania about his NATO enlargement there was

the focus of the of the recent Summit  and uh you know there's a lot of Desire that the U.S push harder on this and the decisions haven't  been made yet how do we actually go about that and there's a real debate going on inside I think  the government but even among some of the experts in Washington is to how you accomplish all  of these objectives all of which we support but how do you manage to achieve these when  you don't know the answers to many of the key questions about Russia who's in ch

arge what  their priorities are it's uh it's a diplomat's conundrum uh par Excellence I would say maybe  I'll stop at that point you can talk some more yeah thank you very much it's uh it's good that  there is thinking going on on on the futures I wonder whether uh you know after after the war  after 2022 the West tried to isolate Russia in order to you know to put pressure on it and  I'm wondering whether we still have leverage on Russia in case you know changes are triggered  do we have any an

y means to actually in influence the situation to that I think this is one of the  things I think I learned from this gentleman when I was I was the deputy American ambassador in  Moscow back in the late 90s when sir Andrew was the British Ambassador uh you know I think all  of us came through the 90s with a sense that uh maybe we tried or wanted to do more than we were  really able to once you understand Russia from the inside you realize how complicated uh it  actually is which is not to say w

e shouldn't have goals and we shouldn't articulate those  goals and we shouldn't support the people who uh would realize those goals or try to realize  those goals but in the end it is the Russians who are going to make these decisions and we've  seen time and again how no matter how much we try they sometimes make the wrong decisions or  horribly wrong decisions yeah thank you very much Mr whistling what is your take on all these  questions well um I'll have to say things in all modesty because

having heard my uh my colleagues  of the panel it's again I'm I feel myself in a learning process I thought I knew a lot about it  but now again I'm putting the in the in the right place I've been a diplomat for uh for 40 years  and one of my specifics I won't talk too much about myself is that I always try to get as far  away as I could from the capital now that might be um that might be my own problem because in  Netherlands I live in The Hague which is our governmental Capital so I really ha

d a I really  had to go for it when I was posted in the in Moscow I was more happy to be in Saint Petersburg  I've been in Kiev and and I've been in tibisi let me join my colleagues also here to say thank  you very much to miharshishkin and Tatiana because once again it's not only that they had a fabulous  interventions this morning but it shows us that we don't pay enough attention to the power of  culture and to the power of human rights when we have a dialogue or a discussion with with uh wit

h  Russia if I if I would put it in easy way on the mess we are in now also as Europe I mean there's a  horrifying war going on between between Russia and Ukraine but there's always also a bit of a mess  in the West on how to deal with Russia and um that as far as I can see as a bit of an outsider is the  inability of our polit politics to really confront Russia the fear of action I mean we have this new  touchword escalation I don't know where it came from I'm pretty sure it came from Russia bu

t some  people say it comes from from Europe and we have an immense lack of knowledge now I'm not talking  of course but people that I'm meeting here because here we have a huge amount of knowledge but if  you look around in our societies there's actually a complete lack of knowledge of our biggest  neighbor Russia now let me give you a little mini example in the in the 90s when I was posted  in the in Russia by the way I think we were there at the same time uh Mr tuft I was working in the  Isra

eli Embassy because I had to stamp all these uh passports for the Jewish Exodus at that moment  which was not very much liked by the Americans but we did it as a favor to the uh to the Israelis  but when I went to Holland for uh for Holiday um very many people told me uh at that mount  France why on Earth did you learn Russian as a conscript military no use Russia is going to  become like us which of course my snap the answer was thank you very much for being so honest as you  know absolutely no

thing but what Russia is really about and that is the case there are still many  people who thought that all Russians would learn English and would take over the Western concept  of democracy culture and human rights not so another example of um and I it I don't  want to be critical of all diplomats who have uh who have resided and worked  incredibly hard in Moscow was for instance in my time when I was a Consul General in  Pittsburgh in 2015 themselves was murdered now if you then listen to the

narrative that  came from Moscow I won't mention the name of my own Ambassador Hans yeah he was spent Force he  wasn't politically active anymore I mean let's not let's not uh let's not spend too much tears  on what happened that grossly avoids the issue that in a more in more abstract sense  nimtsov was the opposite of Putin he was an attractive man he was intelligent  he knew what power was he was deeply religious and well that's a bit of a joking way of  saying it you could be sure that at l

east half of Russia would vote for him namely all  the women so in a sense he was he was a huge um he was what's called what is the antipole of  of Putin had therefore to be um to be taken out or taken away in a certain in a certain way another  thing the The Narrative about Russia um for a long time you had this weird situation whereby the West  was trying to explain Putin in a sense that he will take away a few of your um of your personal  freedoms but in that place he would put economic Prosp

erity now that narrative has been carrying  on quite a long a Time in the West I traveled a lot of uh I made a lot of travels in Russia myself  when I was working for the ministry of economy and again I tried to avoid Moscow and just go straight  to yakatin where casullar or further down as I speak the language I didn't need a translator and  that's why Russian businessmen like me like me so much I just said Hans cancel all your train  trips come into my airplane and we'll talk and when I talked

with them and I said well this  is what we believe about Putin they said oh come on Dance don't be so alive do you ever think  they will get economic Prosperity here do as I think that the president like Putin will keep  his word and give us that no it's fun for as long as it takes because this lovely time will end  some time we don't know when we earn a lot of money at the moment we'll uh we'll have a lovely  time on the certain moment it will just end and stop and we'll go back to the old tim

es again  and that was at a time where we still thought well it was worthwhile to uh to negotiate with  um with uh with Putin coming back to culture um in Saint Petersburg in 2016 I participated in a  in quite a substantial cultural event in um in the Malaysia which is one of the modern art scenes  of um of Saint Petersburg and the one subject that was discussed there also with in the presence of  Mikhail piotrovsky the very successful director of The Hermitage who wrote terrible things now  wit

h the war but at that time you could seem as as the immunos geese of of uh of Russian culture  we ourselves discussed the fact that Allah Putin Russia is totally subduing Modern Art now that's  part of the freedom of expression and at that time big Russian directors or museums  themselves said as long as we suppress um the the uh uh the the freedom of art the  freedom of Modern Art we will never be regarded as a fully grown state by other countries in the  world and that's what the Russians said

themselves which I thought again you see the the immense  strength of um of uh of of culture and also of Human Rights because that's also something  that Russia has not dealt with in any sense um not only by the blatant trampling of  Human Rights they do now but the whole treatment of minorities is something that the  Russian population has never dared enter into I myself was pretty close to it because in  Saint Petersburg together with perspectivi a well-known NGO we started two uh two experim

ents  and one was to go to a mental institute select 10 mentally and physically handicapped people  and give them a home in a small village called rastolia in the neighborhood of um  of of Saint Petersburg now guess what was the first reaction of the village population to  that house with 10 mentally handicapped people well you will never guess it's well said 108  at night in the garden which exploded that is the reaction of Russians to being mentally  and physically handicapped it took a year t

o let people get used to it also with help  of the church so you see that when we when we talk about human rights when we talk about  culture we still have a huge discussion to come do I do I think Russia will exist in  2024 yeah absolutely it will exist um will there be trouble yes there will be trouble  but the only one thing I can think of now when uh when when when thinking about how to how to  deal with Russia in in in in in the future and that's a bit my own way of talking I was console  G

eneral again in Pittsburgh which means you don't get treated as well as a masters do they're pretty  rude to you when you're a console General because they don't conceal that real diplomatic function  but I was treated really badly in Northgate and and even in more months that was because I'm  Dutch that is because the Dutch were making trouble of mh17 and the Russians really disliked  that word I see I have to shorten my uh my words but they were really rough with us and that is  something I le

arned a lot from if at the start of the discussion you're willing to compromise  you're lost and that's that's it you you should just stand clearly if they fool you fool them back  with their full um uh full Entourage around them and only then we'll say hmm maybe it's nice to uh  maybe it's nice to talk to you so again my idea will be no compromise and then again um having  been in Belfast very regularly I love the uh the the no various way of saying good fences make good  neighbors yeah thank y

ou very much may I [Music] I real um Ambassador himan has said that because  of the Russian aggression they must they can't be business as usual for a long time we must stand  up to Russia but economic logic is different than the political logic and we risk especially  here in Lithuania we we are we fear that you know once the war is over the businesses will be very  happy to go back to Russia and Europe will fall back into the hands of Russia how how long do you  think the West can hold standin

g up to Russia or yeah that's that's a tough question the only  problem is I think a lot of businesses don't mind uh the situation as it is I want to call them out  because they're very big businesses from Holland they're still still there and there you touch  on a very delicate problem that is um perfectly exploited by the psychological power that the  Russians have and we always thought that the Russia is not being very well adapted to the whole  new I.T system in the world would make us stron

ger but the one thing we forgot is that the Russians  are much better at technologically using it than than we are we don't even realize that the one  thing that Russia really realizes is in the west you have politicians and you have big business and  they don't necessarily come together unlike Hannah said that the Russians have nationalized a lot of  businesses and it does make them in one hand so they know exactly where the problem is when in 215  there was an economic Forum in in Saint Peters

burg you already felt unease amongst politicians about  our total Reliance on energy from from Russia but that didn't hinder the big directors of big  oil companies to go straight to the president said well Mr President we would love to have a  contract for the coming 20 years this was after Crimea was annexed so it's um it's I think one of  our problems is the problem at home do the do our politicians have enough clout to tell the big  companies listen and we are trying to deal with quite a dif

ficult problem uh in the East would you  mind to reduce your businesses there and I think that if we keep on this track and we try to  diverse our energy into diversify sorry our energy intake as this will be a much stronger position  because then you can say if Russia which already in 1992 started using gas form for its uh for its  foreign policy if they then say we'll cut off you could say yeah sure cut off please and we'll see  you tomorrow again so yes there's a future it's a very difficult

time for politics at one because  there's still far too many companies that are still doing business with Russia I think we're  far too sweet on them at the moment but we'll get there thank you very much we still have 37 minutes  or so so uh if I may I will ask one question for for all of you and then we will go to to the  audience the questions from from the audience um you have mentioned negotiations and the fact  that Russians are hard bargainers you are all diplomats today the question that

a lot of people  are asking is whether and when and what conditions can we can Ukraine start negotiating with Russia  when is the time to sit down at the table or not at all about what a negotiation about war  can we negotiate peace or not yet not now um I agree I think we have to take the lead from  the ukrainians on this it's uh the idea that well first of all I don't think there's a basis for any  negotiation when Putin says and peskov reiterates that uh that you start with the acceptance by 

Ukraine of the annexation of four of the oblasts you know no Ukrainian politician is going to  do that because the Ukrainian people won't do it especially after all of the suffering  that they've gone through and especially when they're already advancing slowly to be  sure but advancing his operation which is one of the the regions that they want to keep I  think we're just going to have to play this very carefully and I think there's some people  probably in this room who've read some of the A

merican efforts behind the scenes of others  American not government but individuals who've done this and uh I I personally just don't  think that's makes any sense right now because I was Ambassador in Georgia during the war in  2008 and I remember the agreement that was signed by the Russians and the terms of that agreement  still haven't been fulfilled they're still Russian forces in South Oceania and in afghazia despite  signing by then president Medved so I think we've got to be really care

ful I'm very Gonna  Take the Lead as I say from the ukrainians in terms of how this goes now if the Russia has  changed then we're gonna have to to talk about these things but we shouldn't be out in front of  them yeah I fully agree uh with Andrew and John it is really for the Ukrainian government  to decide when to engage in serious uh peace negotiations for the time being  the perspective is is very very grim obviously as John said it's difficult it  is practically impossible for any Ukrainian

politician starting with the president to  accept the loss of land as as a precondition of course the the day may come when this will  happen I'll just take a historical example which has been raised also by President zielinski  a comparison to the Russian attack to The Finnish Russian winter War which was launched brutally  by by Russia at the end of November 1939. now at the end of that war Finland had to give  to lose to accept the loss of territory 10 of the territory was lost and more than

400 000 more than  slightly more than 10 percent of the population was evacuated from that occupied territory  including my father and my my uh mother-in-law who were both born and raised in in that lost  territory but Finland at that point had no choice so but but then an additional  problem here is that while we not only in in the course of this war  but regarding many other situations uh President Putin and his government have  clearly shown their disregard to any agreement International agr

eement in general  it's not only the war but but who with the war Mr Portland's government has  lost all credibility how could we how could we seriously think that anything  that is agreed on paper would in any manner lead to a situation where Russia would  would actually follow its obligations under any agreement so this is a very complicated  situation and can definitely mean that the the the day when uh one start seriously talking  about peace negotiations is very far away can I just link thi

s to the word um  strategy which is a very favorite word of berezovski I remember he was always  talking about strategy it was perfectly obvious he didn't have one apart from  something which might be good for him I don't think that one can in the  case of Russia or many other countries say that you have a strategy you have  a changing situation which you relate to as best you can according your  to your desires so that's a process and um listening to to what my colleague on on the  right said a

bout the the activities of business in um in Russia because I was involved  with that after I uh left being ambassador and it was almost hilarious to see a senior  businessman be talking with him and he suddenly notices actually he's been walking on  a sewer for a long time because he simply didn't understand what these people really were and if  he did understand well I can still make money that's not to to say anything against  business people at all in general uh I don't don't think that's th

e case but  it's a fact of life and we do not know where uh Russia will be in uh 10 years time we  can make various possible suppositions but we can't be guided by the fact that we  actually believe that's what will happen we can look the biggest risk as we think it  and sometimes it actually it'd be terrific opportunity and we we will take that there  are some things that we have to stick to and one or other of them is  the free right of Nations to decide their own needs and to fight for them 

if they wish or whatever but it's their business it's possible to argue that Russia  is not in that sense a nation Russia is the only part of the former Soviet  Union which is not actually constituted itself in some matter manner as as a nation  and is fighting against Ukraine which is changed very considerably in the direction  of being a nation with a national feeling and National desires and that's a difference  there so we are in an uncertain world mind you you can say that about your own co

untry  in fact if you've got any sense you would sorry I agree with my colleague said it's it's  it's not very much used to start negotiating now because everything that's written on paper is  not even worth the the price of the paper it's um itself when you talk to Russia but it doesn't  mean that we shouldn't be formulating our way of dealing with the country that behaves like this  and until now if you again see because of the lack of knowledge of Russia we make certain statements  which are

really good for Russia I mean we're not negotiated with them but we're saying well this  is what this is how we're going to help Ukraine we will maybe we will deliver planes maybe we will  deliver tanks that's going to take six months I could say the Russians it's going to take six  months so thanks very much for the information in that way we are already following Moscow in a  way that is delightful for them I mean it's um if I would sit there to advise the president I could  say well these pla

ns are going to take a long time these stupid restaurants are saying it's going  to take 10 months to uh to educate the Ukrainian pilot so okay we've got talents time do that  that and that so we are talking with them without knowing we're even in heaps of of open knowledge  um yes we should and again I Come Back To Human Rights and culture also in that sense there's  a huge amount to do in which I think we can make the Russians realize what they're actually  doing because not many realize how v

icious the um the attacks of the Russians are on the identity  of Ukraine's it's not only hospitals as they did in Aleppo and it's not only schools as a  little Aleppo it's museums it's archives it's universities it is the total Destruction of what  makes Ukraine of what makes the Ukrainian way of life and that's logic and I'll say something that  might not sound really realistic but we are in a for Ukraine in an accentual existential War but  Russia is also an extensible War because of the most

of what the two countries have in common the  Ukrainian way of life is terribly undermining the way that Putin is running uh Russia yes now those  are things that we have to really use in our dialogue with Russia so not only say what we're  not going to do but say what is happening in the cultural and human rights field because there are  Russians who will be listening to us they will not take the decisions tomorrow it's a very long-term  process we have in intensive years not not in years just

as the last example of the viciousness  of Russia I will give the following what's up mandelstom a Russian poet once said writing poetry  in Russia is an extremely dangerous business you can even get capital punishment for it which  he got compare that to what happened in June when Russia bombed a pizzeria in kamatorsk who  was in that Pizzeria Victoria emelina she died five days after that attack who tells me that  that attack was not purposely on that Pizzeria this Victoria was there the Russ

ians fear their  poets fear their writers that's already been said by our uh two speakers but that also gives  us the possibility to turn the dialogue around that's a hopeful note that's a hopeful note  on this I turn to the audience if there is any there are any questions to the  panelists right they're Constantine good afternoon Emilia thanks for the  moderation uh it's my great pleasure to see uh uh my favorite diplomats with whom I met so  many times when I was still living in Moscow my name

is Constantine I'm a Deutsche Valley  journalist my question is actually to the panel whoever chooses to also um when we talk  about uh the future strategy towards Russia um there's always this question about what kind  of Russia the West we whether would like to see after that there's a general Gloom uh about the  possibility of democracy in Russia any time in our lifetimes so would you agree that uh what  we would like is air Russia at peace with itself and with its neighbors and no more no m

atter  what happens inside the country thanks Amelia shall we take a second question and  then they're in gentlemen in the back uh thank you very much to all on the panel  for your insights Craig Oliphant from the foreign policy Center in London my my question is  partly prompted by you know reference to scenarios um also Andrew Woods sort of reference to Putin  coming out of 2024 feet first and of course in Mikhail shishkin's brilliant essay today we  heard a reference to Von stauffenberg plot

Etc the question really um perhaps I could ask  about an imponderable scenario which I'd call the precaution Legacy [Music] namely the notion  that uh before he departed he left a bounty with a Wagner sniper that in the event of something  very unfortunate happening to him Fall From a Balcony or a bad cup of tea that x million would  be available to take a pot shot at uh at the chap at the helm I realize it's an imponderable but I I  just wondered whether a clock has been set ticking a couple of

more coming afterwards um I think if if on uh in May 2024 uh  Putin dropped dead that would be just terrific assuming it was not he'd actually be  assassinated if he was assassinated he would become a hero just as Stalin is apparently hero  despite of the the millions of people of Russians and others that that he'd killed so it I don't  have a a better answer to that that question um I think that was the yes got it I don't  want to apprehend you uh Constantine I think you know I the way I look

at at Russia is we're  in a post-imperial stage I've been reading books for the last two years by Sarah ploki the  ukrainian-american historian at Harvard who uh has for my money at least the best book  about the end of the Soviet Union at least that I've read and a number of really good pieces  about Ukraine and Ukrainian nationalism and uh Ukraine's relationship with Russia through  history really good stuff and he makes the point in each of his books practically that uh that  Russia is really

a dying Empire that said dying Empires often take a long time to die and what  we're seeing now I think is the uh you know to use the movie term the Empire has struck back and  the whole point is to try to bring down the rest of it I don't mean to be silly about this but  I think it's it's a dangerous time and I think one of the things that's motivated the Biden  Administration from my observations from outside is the concern about what that Empire does and  I'm not going to go into the whole q

uestion of nuclear threats and the rest of that but I think  the as time goes by here and the ukrainians have been doing better and better and they're in  a very tough slog right now obviously I think that's really a key but I think all of us as we  watch Ukraine in the battle are also watching what's going on inside of Russia the pagosian  incident uh and for me what fragosian said not just the troops going on the into Moscow  from rostov but what he said he destroyed basically the entire ratio

nale of for Putin's  war and I remember when I heard that before they even mounted the thing I thought boy this  is really damaging and I'm you know my own sense was Mr pregosian's days were numbered at that  point now um okay I'll stop by then go ahead yes to Constantine um on if I understood the  point correctly what kind of Russia would West want to deal with now I think one of the  important features of diplomacy is pragmatism in the sense that you don't do diplomacy out  of an ideological o

r value-based thinking but the the present situation is is very difficult  and complicated because put in himself and his let's say regime have completely discredited  themselves now would it be enough to see an other putinous leader to uh to continue  and start building Russia's future however that happens I don't know but  possibly because of this pragmatist nature of diplomacy it might be possible  to start building a relationship with rebuilding a relationship with Russia even if the  Putin'

s successor would be clearly putinist but so what I'm saying is that it would be a far  too ambitious idea that a democratic Russia is a precondition of re reconstructing the relationship  then the the precaution Affair very briefly yes I think the the clock is ticking I think  my my own reading what happened is that Mr precaution by clearly challenging publicly Mr  Putin he did a favor in the sense that that it it showed Putin's weakness now is the clock  ticking yes as I said I think with the

war Mr Putin has has sown the seeds of his own  destruction now when I say this I have no Illusions it may take a very long time yeah to  have something to add or well just one aspect to um to uh what what the new what new Russia  or another Russia should become having um having worked at UNESCO for a few years and  listening to what other countries think of Europe uh that alone is enough reason not to tell Russia  how this should look like I mean look at the other side we live in times where Eu

rope as a whole  is not liked so the the one the one part of the world that should never tell Russia what to be  is us we're in a bad position if we do that then even less people would vote for our position as we  have it in the in the United Nations and I myself believe that the Russians have a lot of homework  to do let them do that homework it's going to take a long time it might even take good fences to keep  everything calm and quiet I have no hope at all in early negotiations about what th

e Russian States  would look like absolutely none but I do think we should be tough I do think we should get our act  together and I do think that at long last business and politics should take one straight line towards  Russia about the other um about the uh other issue um I I just have two two two things that come to  mind and then it's I once remember holikovsky who was 45 and richest man in the world and um his  only mistake is that he said he wants to become president well what happened to

him after that  we we all know and even earlier I once spoke with General libit um the commander of the 14th Army  in transnistria in uh in 1995 I was there not completed together with Christy Freeland who is  now a vice prime minister of of Canada but we we both faced him on different dates and we came to  one conclusion he's Commander now and he wants to become a president of Russia and I think two years  later he had a precursion type of accident so um I'm not sure that what happened to pregg

ers  anything new I'm not sure if it made the clock ticking what I think would be much um could be  much more effective but then again we should get our act together and show the Russians themselves  that her president is nowhere to be seen I what I really like about zelensky but also about zelenska  they are there don't forget that when the war was in his third day and Ukraine could still lose  zelenski and two or three of his ministers were working on the hashatic photographing themselves  say

ing listen guys we didn't run away we are here if you are standing there you can come in and see  us that is such a strong image but we never take the trouble to project that onto Russia because  somewhere in Russia there are a lot of Russians would like to listen they will not change  the Russian system overnight but we should be seen to sow the seeds of normality uh we had  a question back from back I try yeah it's true or yeah please I will I  will give you the the floor uh thank you well tha

nk you very much panel  for the discussion my name is Elizabeth I am a political analyst from Nicolas University also  expert on Ukraine and Russia and just every second month now uh spent in Ukraine and also before this  big bowl I spent seven years in donbass region so uh my question really also coming from a  Ukrainian side so president zelensky very recently said uh please ask pregos how much you could trust  Putin uh do you think that really are Western countries understand as and when some

countries  are pushing Ukraine uh to start negotiations in not very comfortable position for Ukraine I've  been four regions are occupied at the next and Ukraine is still lacking weapons so those  countries are not really helping for Ukraine to achieve the goal but also not helping for  all of us to achieve the goal to change Russia because if if you were talking and I will fully  support this point of view uh that we do not see I mean that Putin probably will stay after 2024. uh  another point

we all beginning to understand that the problem it's not on Ukraine the Putin have his  plans regarding the Europe as such if it will do what he wanted to do uh in Ukraine so then what  is real the problem with giving up enough weapons are for Ukraine to achieve the old strategic  goals and do you think that the fear in Russia what will happen to Russia maybe military might  come maybe the stabilization it's really still stronger when you're doing all those conflict  considerations then underst

anding that was encounters have to help for Ukraine with military  with everything called Ukraine aspo thank you and uh shall we take another question in the back yes good afternoon thank you for your time uh my  name is will I'm from the British Embassy here in wilmius so my question is sort of a bit more  Broad we seem to have spent the last sort of 30 years building Russia into the International  System we now are beginning to regret it I think especially with the United Nations security  Cou

ncil so what can the West be doing to to kind of ring fence that problem and resolve and reform  some of those International institutions thanks all right who would like to start I'll try to  answer all these question I uh you know I know there's been criticism of the Biden Administration  for being too slow on some of these weapon systems and I personally think some of them should have  gone much faster I I was pleased yesterday to see on TV that uh at the meeting in in Germany of  the support

the the nation's support group that uh Secretary of Defense Austin said that the the  Abrams tanks are about to arrive which will help um but I know from friends who are Military  Officers who are not in service now but who have worked on some of these systems alvidis  that there really are issues of training and being able to operate these things effectively  especially in combat with all of the rest of it um I was struck by an article in the paper and  I'm not in government I have no way of co

nfirming this but you know one of the other weapon  systems that's frequently mentioned that the ukrainians wanted are these attackums these longer  range missiles and apparently they're at least according to this article and it sounded pretty  authoritative one of the reasons that there are people reluctant is has nothing to do with Ukraine  and Russia and the rest of it it's that we don't have enough of these and there are people who in  the Pentagon who have to plan for contingencies vis-a-vi

s Taiwan in China and that's one of the  weapon systems that we don't have enough of that we would definitely need to be able to to defend  the Taiwanese and the commitment that we have made to them now as I say I'm sure there were  other ones that could have been done faster and I'm happy to say I'd like to see more go in I'm  glad to see the F-16 Pilots are getting trained because I think that's really a a critical piece  now especially but even f-16s aren't uh you know they can't always do th

e ground support missions  that what the Ukrainian forces you know driving South into operation really now need they can do  things but uh you know there are other aircraft the old a-10s which were the best in terms of  low altitude ground support and things anyway I don't mean to get too technical about this but  I've tried to look at this myself because I've you know I felt we should do do more and there are  some other countervailing reasons I guess is what I'm trying to say that we need to a

t least keep  in the back of our minds even as we push forward on on the U.N point um mosque would certainly veto any any possible  change that would affect them and that's just a fact of life and it would have the veto of  China as well if there's there is an argument of having a better and wider uh Central uh  part of the of the United Nations but it's not an argument which is going to prosper not  now because it would have precisely that effect uh yes first on on supporting Ukraine in militar

y  terms starting with my own country Finland in per capita terms I think we are very high on  the list of uh supporters but the discussion in Finland has to do with uh finland's own security  definitely we understand in Finland that as I said also in my initial remarks that Ukraine  is fighting a war for the west and Western values and democracy uh but there is no question about  finland's commitment to continue supporting Ukraine also militarily but the discussion going  on in Finland has to d

o with our own security we are the ultimate Frontline state with uh more  than 1300 kilometers of land border and our defense of course we are now members in NATO but  our defense is based on this fact and I think from the from the NATO perspective it is important  that Finland maintains its National capacities so we have given a lot of uh ammunition and other  and different kinds of equipment to Ukraine but there is a limit to that which is I mean rational  and reasonable to expect so uh but I

think I mean the small concluding point on the military  military support I think I don't think Mr Putin is seriously considering using  uh nuclear weapons in against Ukraine of course we cannot exclude that but his  main goal in making regular references to the possible use of nuclear weapons has to do with  uh I'd say intimidation to the West trying to to communicate that you your support we don't accept  you supporting Ukraine but if you go beyond certain red lines it will be necessary for us

  and you should know it that we would use nuclear weapons so I think that is partly to explain this  hesitation or even though I I definitely recognize what John said but but there is this this this  backdrop that makes expanding uh Military Support Beyond a certain point so here we are on the  U.N of obviously the situation is unbearable uh the U.N has been rendered practically useless  in the process but of course we knew that we have known that for many years Russia has been  together with C

hina has have been actively using uh The veto powers in the security Council and  to bypass those vetoes to the uniting for peace procedure is useless it's it's only uh words and  decoration so of course not all Security Council resolutions have really been implemented but but  that's the precondition for U.N to be important and efficient actor in crisis situations of this  kind would you like to ask I'll be really short to one arm in Ukraine um I don't know enough of  armament but I'm a great f

an of the American General Ben Hodges who was you come here he said  give them the stuff and they'll beat him I I still I still believe that back to your question  on the on the U.N also look at ourselves we um you can say that we've had long-term laziness  look at the way countries that are not only in the security Council but took care that  they put a lot of their own people in all the agencies of the United Nations look at the  way we're losing countries in Africa via the U.N we could have d

one a lot about that so it's not  only secured Council I know as British of course and the French the Security Council is the most  important organ but it's it's a bit if you only look at that top organ you lose the importance of  all the agencies that are under it look at them carefully China dominates a lot of them already  that's another problem coming after Russia but it's there where we can enforce many of the things  that the security Council doesn't even know about so we have a less than

three minutes left  yes last week sorry my last remark make Ukraine member of the EU and NATO and then a  lot of problems are solved why do I say that because Ukraine is completely on its own and  that's not good once they're in cushioned in those organizations it will be a totally different  story so we should stop about our well I'm talking to Ritz here we stop jaggering about the EU that  they can't have them yes we can have them in the EU thank you shall we use the last two minutes  to for t

he final remarks each of you if I may I will drop in a question that comes out of our  discussion the process has been slow and have been you know the process of of resolving the  the issue of War has been slow and uh one of the the reasons is perhaps which was which was  raised here that we talk about about fear that perhaps the West is fears the Russian collapse  or some even say that they fear Ukrainian victory but there is another element which Ambassador teft  mentioned that we have all the

se objectives but we must be very prudent and very serious about how we  achieve them so it's it's also thinking about the stability of international orders or Prudence or  is it simply lack of leadership and slow thinking maybe I'll just say one word I think it's  important and people read the newspapers and know this but when you're in Washington uh where  my wife and I live the the debate is as much on China today as it is on Ukraine and I cannot tell  you how uh some of the discussions I get

into in conferences and things uh turn on China back  in February I was at Ohio University and I got put behind a young Republican strategist  who got up and said forget about Ukraine the important issue is Taiwan we shouldn't  do a damn thing in Ukraine cut the aid put the money into Taiwan that's where the battle is  that's the future why of course them got up after him and said excuse me it's uh what's going on in  Ukraine is not just Ukraine and Russia it's about the future of Europe and ag

gression and all of  the issues that I think we all know um and I said which isn't to say that Taiwan isn't important  but I just underline the point and I think you can read it in the newspaper but when you're actually  there and you see these debates on the discussions uh and the question of American strategy and  what where do we put the priority where's the money going I mentioned in responding to alvidus  this this article that I read in the newspaper and I'm not in government and I don't h

ave uh special  sources of information but this article was quite clear that there must be somebody inside the  Pentagon in the in the military who's really concerned that he's responsible for the battle  plan contingency battle plan if there was one in Taiwan and by God he needed those attackers as  part of his plan anyway there's trade-offs and things those of us who've worked in government  understand those we have to make compromises but I think those two points are the ones that  I would cl

ose with thank you thank you yes I I would say that a real concern in Europe is the  continued U.S commitment to European security through the North Atlantic Alliance obviously  and as as a new ly uh new new member of NATO for us the transatlantic relationship in other  words the bilateral relationship with the US is of extreme importance so um and and this said  with full understanding of the China problem but but somehow we should be able to to put those  things together because I'm sure Europ

eans or at least practically All European nations uh are  ready to support the U.S also in the Far East so but as a general concluding notion uh I have seen  I I have come to the conclusion through years not only during the war or the new brutal stage of the  war ever since the war started at 2014 that there has been a lack of real leadership in Europe and  this is this is a problem I mean Finland has had rather weak governments for obvious reasons now  the assessment of what Germany has done an

d how it has been LED not only now but also during the long  period of uh Angela merka is is has become much more critical and not to speak of many others so  so leadership in Europe has been in the show in in the short supply and and would really need to be  enhance whatever it takes just one quick remark I was an ambassador in Yugoslavia from 1985 to 1989  and uh that was when the collapse was was very imminent and I have to say that nobody in the  west was interested in that because they're h

ypnotized by the fact that good change was going  on in um in the rest of Soviet Europe if you like so it's it's uh it's not at all uncommon that  governments make mistakes and therefore you're quite right when you said we as ambassadors  should pay no attention to our government one minute remark which I should  not make in the in this country but I hope kayakalis wants to  become sexually general of NATO thank you very much it's it's Leisure  discussing with you today and please join me in a r

ound of applause to this  distinguished thank you [Applause] thank you very much we have lunch now till two o'clock for  the speakers lunch will be downstairs but for the speakers only so you understand and  please leave your headset when you leave this room because they're expensive and you will get them  again when you come back at two o'clock thank you foreign so let's start the proceedings  if we can all take a seat okay so let me um invite to speak the  first Speaker of this afternoon Mario

Corti someone who has been around in  sovietology Russian studies for more than half a century so  I'm very happy to have you here Andrea malrick used to claim that his French  ancestor was a descendant of an American another over 13th century  heretical movement The Americans followers of America a philosopher and theologian  of the University of Paris events according to him his family name derived this claim was made  by America during a TV talk show on the first channel of Italian State tel

evision recorded  on October 1576 and broadcast the next day and I personally heard him say that for I was  sitting in a booth as a simultaneous interpreter the program was moderated by a Rigo Levy and  I also remember some of the other participants and Paolo espriano a communist  journalist and historian the names must be unknown now to most of these  audience but they were then very famous of being opinion makers in Italy all of them were  fascinated by the personality and width of the special

guest of the show I wasn't there by chance  for I would have never been engaged by Rai as a simultaneous interpreter had it not been for my  friend Yuri malsev also a close friend of America who has settled in Italy after his immigration  in 74. and became the author of the first history of some is that literature first published in  Italian and shortly after in the original Russian indeed it was massive who suggested to America  that he should ask the Italian TV state the Italian State TV to e

ngage  one to engage me for that occasion so this is how I first met amarik whom I again made later in Italy  when the model X visited miles and elsewhere in Europe on other occasions  the last time we met was in September of 79 less than a year before his tragic death  at a party organizing his honor somewhere in Chevy Chase Washington DC to which I had  been invited by his wife gazelle makujinova in Washington amarly gave testimony at the third  international soccer of healings which were held

in the Dirksen Senate building and I was there  as a member of the hearings executive committee there must be something of a Norman in America's  real name for the Americans are believed to have been millenarians it is concerned with the end  of time and at least one of them will help us our effects was believed to have the gift of  Prophecy only later did I discover that America had already written about his French ancestry  in his book involuntary journal to Siberia although in the last adama

nt way concerning the  adherence of one of his forebears to the Americans but that he didn't dislike the idea of being a  descendant of a heretic and that he himself was a modern incarnation of a heretic and apparently  also possess the gift of Prophecy remains a fact amarik's name became widely known in the  West after the publication in English in 1970 of his will the Soviet Union survived  until 1984 written in 69 and published in Russian for the first time in Amsterdam  in the same year by C

arl vanher Trevor it was With Yuri multiv that their marriage  had spent some time in the middle of 69 in a remote Village in the region of resign  while Andrei was working on his essay as malts of Rights quote in the evenings he would  read to me what he had written during the day and we will discuss it together unquote later  a malrik explicitly thanked malicef quote who read the manuscript and made some useful comments  unquote the brochure concerned with the last days of the Soviet Union rat

her as this conference is  concerned with a possibly last day of the Russian Federation was widely discussed by kremlinologists  and sovietologists around the world and there is no need for me here to unleash the  number of Articles and discussions about both the essay as well as the speculations around its  author amarik observed that the Soviet regime was undergoing a natural process of senescence having  already shown clear signs of an advanced stage of decrepitude at the time he was writing

his  book according to him the USSR would eventually disintegrate under the pressure of social unrest  and National conflicts Germany would reunify the Baltic states Ukraine and the leftover European  part of Russia would join a European Federation following a catastrophic war with China almost  one third of America's essay is devoted to what he calls the Democratic movement a term that  was questioned in Soviet dissident circles foreign for instance didn't like the  apparent political connotati

on of that term and prefer to call it the Human Rights Movement  and if I can allow myself a critical remark and a digression here without entering the details  I must say that there cannot be human rights without democracy however amarik seems to have  been convinced that the movement would not be able to engage in a competition with the Soviet  regime or in case of its fall to take control and play a role in the establishment of a new order  unless it gained more support among the people wheth

er and to what extent the human  rights movement of the USSR played a decision role in the breakdown of Soviet  communism is a matter still open to debate and needs further investigation  however is certainly plain played a significant role indirectly for it opened  the eyes of the public opinion in the west to the true nature of the Soviet regime thus producing  an increment of the western pressure on the Soviet government on behalf of persecuted dissidents  as well as of religious and National

minorities it turned out the sum of America's  predictions were wrong as was the concatenation of events and their timing but the  regime eventually became more and more decrepit the U.S fell apart Germany reunited and  the Baltic states joined the European Union all as predicted by America a spiral the tween  of Sir ill radio Liberty program devoted to the 70th anniversary of amarlik's birth quote it was a  prophetic book in many ways after all he predicted that this integration of the Soviet

Union details  are not important unquote indeed prophecies are better characterized by the intuition and  all the inspiration behind them rather than by their precision I was an early believer in  America's predictions and used to repeat to those close to me that the Soviet Union would  soon fell apart fall apart under the pressure of national conflicts but later in 1976 when I  first read it I fell under the influence of the yawning Heights of Alexander zinovieve I changed  my mind and convince

d myself that Soviet communism would last forever and that it would spread Beyond  its borders it was I was particularly worried about the situation in my own country which had  the biggest and most influential Communist Party in the west indeed despite the popularity of  a Malik's book very few if any anticipated the fall of Communism and the collapse of the USSR  so when it happened when the beginning of the end of the U.S assert came about with a period of  glasnos and perestroika the world w

as taken aback what seems to me to be compelling as well as  applicable to the current Russian aggression against Ukraine are America's remark that they  called regimes the crepitude is connected with an extremely ambitious foreign policy perhaps because  external crisis are seen as a way out of internal contradictions perhaps on the contrary because  there is with which internal resistance is being suppressed creates an illusion of omnipotence  perhaps because the need for because the need to l

ook for an external enemy to achieve internal  goals creates such an inertia that it becomes impossible to stop it unquote as he would later  reiterate quote there is a relationship in Russia between external expansion and internal  stability in expansion which for Russian philosophers assumes the form of messianism  Lies the meaning of Russian history as soon as a painful blow is delivered to any Russian  attempt at expansion reforms or a revolution follow has happened for example after the  Cr

imean War or the Russell Japanese war unquote as we have seen foreign Russian expansionist  and Russian missionism are almost synonymous indeed from a small village Moscow  developed into the grand duchy of Muscovy a feudatory vassal of the golden  horde at the extreme edge of Europe it further expanded in all directions by attacking  and subjugating its neighboring states and peoples eventually becoming Russia the largest country in  the world yet along its Will To Power this serial aggressor c

ontinues to play the victim claiming  to be surrounded by enemies whining about its presumed greatness being unrecognized offended by  its neighbors and the target of the machinations sword Russian history Russian thought gave birth  to and developed a self-centered narcissistic ideology its main subject being Russia and the  Russians also identified as the Russian idea it is characterized by such key terms as Moscow  The Third Rome holy Russia Russian as Russians as god-bearing people rational

humanness  Russian predestination Russian calling as well as by faith in a Russian Universal  salvatory Mission the antithesis between Russian spiritual values and Western  materialism and anti-western resentment it is not my intention here to speculate upon the  aftermath of Russia of Russia's latest shameful aggression against Ukraine that I believe will  be miserably will be a miserable failure this is not why I have been invited here this task being  reserved for other participants in this c

onference whatever tragic consequences  Russia will suffer sooner or later Russians must be prepared for a long period of  atonement and reparations for the incalculable damage they have inflicted and are still  inflicting on Ukraine my only hope is that we will hear no more Lamentations about russophobia and  the imaginary discrimination of Russian culture it is about time I believe for Russians to  try to overcome a cultural superiority complex which unfortunately in many cases is common  both

to regime supporters and to oppositionists alike stop wallowing in self-pity ruminating about  themselves and the uniqueness of Russian culture and start to blame only themselves for  whatever consequences ensue from the wrongdoing stop talking about long-suffering  Russia for all adults Russians have the share of responsibility for all the mysteries of  their country and focus more on the suffering inflicted by Russia on other peoples  and Nations thank you for your attention [Applause] okay I

would like to introduce the next speaker of  today it's another keynote address unfortunately the speaker is not with us here for health reasons  but we have him on screen Paul Goble a very well known name in our sphere of expertise is  an American analyst writer and columnist he is editor of four volumes on ethnic issues in  the form of Soviet Union and has published more than 150 articles on ethnic and nationality  questions he was a special advisor on Soviet nationality issues and Baltic Aff

airs Secretary of  State of Jamesburg James Baker Paul Goble please Elizabeth Teague was one of the best analysts  of Russian Affairs of her Generations in many ways because she invariably combined a detailed  knowledge of history and a commitment to looking at all aspects of any new situation rather than  being misled as analysts and policy makers often are when confronted with something they haven't  seen before I had the privilege of knowing her and working closely with her for more than thre

e  decades and I can testify now just how much we miss analysts like Liz because of that those  particular skills and clearly in our current situation on the disc where we are exploring  whether the Russian Federation will in fact fall apart and what if anything will remain of  Russia are precisely the kinds of issues where the skills and knowledge sets she brought to the  table are so important it is thus a pleasure and an honor for me to have the chance to talk about  these issues in terms of

the methods Liz used to analyze with such success so many events  in Soviet and post-soviet Russian history as everyone at this conference is aware  ever more people around the world are suggesting that the Russian Federation  is on its way to the dust bin of History but most of the people who make such remarks  assume that the coming disintegration of that country will resemble what happened in 1991. in  fact the largest reason that people now think that the Russian Federation may fall apart is

that  the Soviet Union fell apart only 32 years ago Liz of course would have been the first to  caution and then remind everyone that while there are indeed some elements likely to be  in common with the events of three decades ago the future disintegration of the Russian  Federation almost certainly will be like not the remarkably quick and easy divorce of 1991  where the Russians allowed the situation to uh take place without challenging it and instead  resemble the vastly more complicated di

fficult violent and in part quickly reversed results of  the immediately preceding example of the demise of the Russian Empire namely its collapse in  1918 when that country fell apart along both ethnic and Regional lines only to have much of the  terror its territory reunited under moscow's yoke because of Divisions among its opponents and the  facility with which the Bolsheviks exploited those understanding why the events looming on the  horizon are going to be fundamentally different than tho

se of 1991. and much more likely to be  though similar to those of 1918. it's critical not only for the peoples themselves involved  and the strategies they should adopt but also and perhaps especially important for Outsiders  governments analysts and so forth who are going to again face a greater challenge than three decades  ago one that they need to meet in radically different ways lest the gains of disintegration  be lost by an reintegration made possible as was the case a century ago by The

Outsiders doing just  enough to contribute to the rise of a new kind of super patriotism but not enough to achieve what  the outsizers in fact hope for then or a pair to hope for now Liz teague's approach to other issues  is extremely valuable if we're going to make this Transit this transition in an effective way  obviously these differences between now and 1991. the similarities between the present situation  and that of 1918. and the consequences for both those immediately involved and those

  who want to help are numerous and ramified far too large to cover in a single comment such  as mine today but as Liz would have reminded us we were we were if we were fortunate enough to still  have her presence there are at least five reasons in each case that deserved to be mentioned and may  serve as a matrix and warning against fighting the wrong War as all too happens with politicians  as with generals at the very least even these brief statements can serve as a cautionary notice  to thos

e who now assume that what they hope for will be achieved easily and quickly all of us are  treated on a regular basis to those who draw maps of the dividing up of the Russian state that  suggests that all these parts can leave easily and that no one will try to prevent that all these  parts assume there will be no Russia in fact the odds are there will be a Russia and how Parts  go what forces they bring to bear how Outsiders play this is going to determine which groups  in fact exit this Empir

e and which groups are reintegrated in ways that make revolcism of the  kind we now see in Ukraine more likely not less among the reasons that 2024 and 25 will not be  like 1991. the following five it seems to me are especially important thinking about this issue  in the way that Liz would have first in 1991 almost everyone knew what the prospects were  as far as the numbers of successor countries that would emerge and what their borders  would be there were 15 Union republics if one counts the

occupied balic States among  them and thus there would be 15 countries and the administrative borders they had under  the Soviet state would become state borders at the insistence of both Moscow and the West now  no one has any idea how many Estates will arise from the demise of the Russian Federation with  numbers running from one the kremlin's obvious preference to more than a hundred no one knows  what their borders will be or the principles on which those borders will be established and no o

ne  knows who will be in charge of particular places most world leaders adopted a status quo approach  even in 1991. and they are certain to be drawn to a similar approach now given the uncertainties and  dangers involved in the Russian situation there's a tendency to forget just how much opposition  there was in the west to the disintegration of the USSR please remember President Bush's August  1st 1991 Kiev speech the so-called chicken key of speech in which he suggested the pursuit of  Indepe

ndence was a form of suicidal nationalism only to have to recognize the independence  of Ukraine three and a half months later that's that is something that people try to  White out that part of history and it should also be remembered that even in the case of the  three Baltic countries Estonia Latvian Lithuania which the United States among other countries  had insisted Moscow had no right to control and had established a long-term non-recognition policy  the fact is the United States was the

37th country to recognize that the government's in place in  Estonia Lobby Lithuania were in fact legitimate governments and that we could exchange diplomats  with them and not simply with the representatives of the pre-war pre-1940 governments there's a  tendency to forget all that Liz wouldn't have and she'd warn us against doing against making  that mistake second and I think this is perhaps especially important ethnicity is not going  to be the only Factor at work in the future it certainly

isn't going to be nearly the  over the overwhelming Factor it was in 1991. to be sure regions ethnic groups nations are going  to play a role but regions and sub-ethnic groups are going to play an even larger one either by  separating or uniting there are many there are many nations within the Russian Federation  that can't possibly make it on their own but could if they work together the five or six  states of Idaho the half a dozen republics in the north caucuses are only examples of where  co

operation is necessary and Siberia or the Russian Far East is another which in my mind may  be the most important in terms of what happens in the next couple of years that means of course  that no one can say in advance what the principles will be for State organization unless and until  Outsiders declare certain ideas such as democracy and non-aggression as fundamental State structures  are going to have to be built from the bottom up rather than simply re-christened  as they were after 1991. t

hat gives some promise that the mistakes that  were made by the west and by Russia in in Moscow in particular won't be repeated but it's necessary  to understand those mistakes where there was an assumption that everyone had become a Democrat a  Democrat by having proclaimed that they were no longer Communists and causing people to focus  much more on what being a Democrat meant and not assuming as unfortunately the United States  did in particular that all we need was to have people who call th

emselves Democrats in power  and Market forces would take care of the rest perhaps the most important thing Liz would tell  us if she were Among Us is look at politics don't just look at economics I've often felt that one of  the greatest tragedies for Russia was the victory of the University of Chicago economics Department  approach to the analysis of international Affairs that has gotten us into no end of trouble on  the assumption that somehow the Dead Hand of the market will solve the proble

ms which we  poor political activists are incapable of doing again all this makes the situation much more  uncertain and more complicated and will certainly mean that we will not have a single day when we  go from having one country to having 12 as was the case in the at the end of the Soviet Union between  December 25th and December 26 1991. third at least in principle the disintegration of the USSR  took place according to the Soviet Constitution the future disintegration of the Russian  Feder

ation isn't going to have that advantage the and or alternatively you  can look at it as a constraint because what happened then could be presented as  legal and hence legitimate it was far easier for those who re-christen themselves as Democratic  and national leaders to win out then it will be for those without that asset but at the same  time new leaders that who do emerge likely will be more genuine than many of those who held on  to power between Soviet times and the aftermath what we saw e

ssentially was a way was a rush  across the former Soviet space in which people who'd been running things before 1991 found ways  to keep themselves in office changing names but ultimately not changing their approach and that  didn't happen and Liz would be would remind us of that because she certainly reminded people of  it in the last several decades that didn't happen in two thousand with the rise of Vladimir  Putin that happened from the very beginning what what we saw in October of  1993 wi

th the shelling of the US of Russian Federation Supreme Soviet in  1993 94-95 with the first war in chechnya and with a variety of other actions showed that  the policies were there was great continuity will there be as much continuity this time  around well there's one good reason to think perhaps not and that is that many of the people  now talking about the need for the disintegration of the Russian Federation are doing so precisely  because they believe it's necessary to change the nature of

the Russian State at the same time  the challenge of changing the Russian state a country of whom it of which it is often said that  everything can change in an instant but it'll be the same as it was a hundred years ago may prove  this may prove the most important observation uh that uh Russian culture can offer and if that  should prove to be the case then once again those who proclaim the end of history in 1991  may discover that history will pay a bit will pay return visit to them and that

they will discover  that everything they thought was settled isn't and that the future is vastly more like the past than  anything they could imagine again that's something that Liz would have reminded us of if she were  and I wish she were still with us fourth in 1991 Russia was led by a leader who was committed not  to using massive Force to prevent the status quo Gorbachev was prepared to use little blood  as people said at the time and Liz wrote but he was not prepared to do a Tena men's  st

yle crushing of an opposition and Russians themselves and this is something that's not  true anymore supported the disintegration of the of the USSR confident that if they could only  get rid of the burdens that they saw the peoples of Central Asia and the Caucasus and Ukraine  and the baltics let's get rid of those people then their situation would improve and that they  would live like Americans or like West Europeans that was The View on the street that was  the view in the halls of power of

Moscow in 1991. it is not the view on the street  or in the halls of power of Moscow now today Russians and Russian leaders have a very  different View and consequently while it has taken nearly 30 years for this going back to a policy  of ramboschism to take full flower under Putin it will take much less time for revocism to  happen if parts of the Russian Federation begin to go off go their own way the question  we have to ask ourselves who can defend those those parts NATO someone else and wh

at will  happen will in fact an effort to solve the Russian problem to eliminate the possibility  of the rise of leaders like Vladimir Putin create a situation where such leaders will become  more possible more likely indeed more certain those are the kinds of ironies of history that  Liz wrote about in her work for so many years and that we would be well to remember  when we look to the full to the Future and fifth in this section and most perhaps most  important the non-russians had an ally in

Moscow because Moscow was divided between a Soviet  leadership that increasingly represented no one and a Russian leadership of Boris Yeltsin  and his team which saw the non-russians as temporary allies to oppose the center  and therefore allow Russia to escape there is no equivalent Arrangement like that  today there is no one in a position of power in Moscow who is fighting the Kremlin and sees  the non-russians the non-russians in Kazan pick your pick your Regional or ethnic Capital as  an a

lly against the central regime in fact one of the satisfa cases now is that the non-russians  who are who are in opposition find it almost impossible to talk to the Russians who are also  in opposition they see themselves as diametrically opposed if that doesn't start changing and there  are some hopeful signs I mean the scope off and and some of the others are in fact moving in  a more positive direction then I don't see how you can draw the lines that people are drawing  right now about how it

's all going to come apart obviously there are people in Russia who  believe that Russia needs to overcome its obsession with thinking that size Matters in all  circumstances but those people are not a majority and a culture that has existed by extensive growth  rather than intensive growth isn't going to be changed over time in many respects Vladimir  Putin represents what Russians really think which is that a shift from extensive to  intensive Economic Development would be the death of the Rus

sian state what remains to be seen  is whether it's sustainable to continue to promote a extensive model which is what Putin wants to do  with relying on oil and gas among other things uh in a modern world my guess is that it's not  sustainable for very long but whether it's sustainable for this generation is something  that we have to think very carefully about the second point I want to make is that having  talked a little bit about the differences between 91 and the our current situation I'd 

now like to talk about some of the ways in which the current situation will very definitely  resemble in critical ways the events of 1918. and these they're five that I'll go through again  for parallelism because I think too few people have thought about 1918 in the current generation  when I began studying Soviet politics in 1967 the way you began studying Soviet politics was by  considering the Mongol yoke and then working your way through the uh through the imperial history  and indeed in b

oth my undergraduate and graduate Soviet politics courses we never got Beyond 1935  because we didn't get to 1917 until the end of the first semester now however there's a tendency of  people becoming analysts in this area who don't know anything about what happened before 1917  don't know very much about the history of that of that country and its culture and therefore uh  if they've gained a lot in more recent knowledge they've lost the kind of knowledge that people  of my generation or Liz's

had because we started looking at the Mongols looking at Ivan the  Terrible we understood the irony of Alexander nevsky forming alliances with the Mongols to  oppose the pope and the Germans that's not something that comes automatically to people who  may be specialists in public opinion research or voting patterns so we need to go back and think  a bit more seriously about 1918 because it may matter a whole lot more and I would urge there are  any number of very good books that were written in

the past about 1918 and that is a turning point  of Russia more even than 1917 1917 was a shock to the system 1918 through 1921 perhaps better  is a period when the system was in many ways put back together not destroyed but saved and that is  something that you're not going to hear Putin talk about but you need to think about if you're going  to talk casually about the place coming apart first then in 1918 the Russian state had in  fact disintegrated if you looked at the maps that people draw M

oscow was reduced to Muscovy  and most of the country belonged to someone else with various regions and Nations forming their own  armies forming their own republics competing and cooperating with each other and being involved  in various ways with Outsiders typically The Outsiders weren't nearly as generous when  the task stood before them as they had suggested and so it was often the case that the  people on the ground were left holding the bag had had the British put as many troops into  Verm

ont as Britain said it was going to produce I suspect today very few people would have  ever heard of Vladimir lemon but it didn't and had the United States and the Japanese done  more to support the culture forces at least everything east of the Euros would not be under  moscow's control but in fact as so often happens Outsiders did just enough to guarantee  that patriotism would re be reborn might not have been called that but the behavior  of the Bolshevik Elites was nothing if not a patrioti

c upswelling one of my favorite finds  as a as a careful reader of the second and third edition of Lenin's collected works is if you go  back to the second and third edition they're the same with some minor changes that you discover is  that in one page in Lenin's experience with the political uh Elite there is a great complaint  about the need to shut up people like Zenovia and others who are becoming rabid nationalists  especially at the time the Polish war in 1920. uh and Lenin promised to do

something about it  to tell them this was a very bad idea not good bolshevism and so on if you then turn the page  in the same volume on the next page Lennon writes a note to Luna charsky and he says I've been  thinking a lot about what's important right now and what we really need is a new dictionary  of the Great and Powerful Russian language in short Lenin was affected in in many of the same  ways as Zenovia he was just smart enough not to not to say everything that was on his mind and  it's

only if you read the record the historical record from the archives a little later but  what we did see in 1918 was to see a Revival of a kind of Russian patriotism my guess and I  think Liz would agree with me here is that if Russia starts to fall apart a country that sent  an army into Ukraine would be far more ready to send an army into the north Caucasus the middle  of Olga Siberia in the Far East than many think and if those areas were supported as they  might be rhetorically at least by O

utsiders then it's entirely possible that that kind of  ravacious patriotism or nationalism might be even more rigorous and violent than what we're  seeing with respect to the Ukrainian forces second point about 1918 is that it wasn't just  about ethnicities but about regional identities indeed I've written and I believe that the that  regionalism is going to be the nationalism of the next uh next evolution of Russian and Bureau power  and I think that going back to 1918 suggests that I think un

less we understand that nationalism  is in fact something created it's not it's it's a it's an imagined Community to use Benedict  Arnold's Benedict Anderson's uh uh insights it's not something that's natural and you can create  identities in a variety of ways and sometimes remarkably quickly people who didn't think  they were this will suddenly realize that they were and I think we're going to see a lot of that  third as was the case in 1918 Moscow remains Comm committed to recapturing the enti

re periphery  there wouldn't be as much support for Russian armies in Ukraine if there wasn't even more  support for making sure nothing else gets out and so Outsiders who are def who are who are  divided between those who would love to see a Russian split apart and those who would like to  see Russia as a weakened state but in the same borders have a big debate of what they need to  what they need to do lest what they the pursuit of one of those goals ends up undercutting  its own self and othe

rs as well fourth because these Outsiders the West in particular remain  divided they collectively are likely once again to do just as much to those moscows now poses as  foreign agents and to develop a kind of post-red patriotism that will allow Moscow once again to  defeat most but probably not all of the periphery it we need to not stop thinking there is one  answer to the question of Imperial devise and begin understanding that it's what's necessary  is a variegated approach in which parts m

ay parts are very likely to get out but the idea that a  hundred countries will is very very rare and fifth the diversity of the structures created first from  below and then destroyed by moscow's reoccupation in 1918 was so daunting that many Outsiders  and this needs to be remembered too viewed the restoration of order as more useful than it was  failing to see that restoration achieved in the way it was achieved set the stage for repression  on the one hand and Imperial revenge on the other y

ou cannot understand what happened in 1941.  if you do not understand what happened in 1918 to 1921 and among the reasons that those who  want to help the peoples of Northern Eurasia achieve Freedom peace and democracy need to  recognize the five this is my last point the five are especially important first the West  needs to recognize its mistake in 1991 when it proclaimed just about everyone a Democrat and  assumed privatization would solve everything including weaning leaders from aggressive 

and repressive Tendencies and assuming that if they had enough money they wouldn't build  the Gula if one wants democracy rule of law and obedience international law one must work  to promote those things rather than assuming that the economy or something else will do it  for you if we don't understand that we will fail again and we will also fail to recognize  as we did in 91 that it isn't going to be one glorious peace dividend but the challenges and  burdens on us are going to be far greater

in the coming decade than they've been in the past too  again that's not something people are happy about second for all the problems the disintegration the  Russian Federation will inevitably involve if the goal is to eliminate repression and Imperial  Romanticism that may be the only way forward and if we're if we see that as the case and Liz  would urge us to pay attention to that that risk then what we need to understand is that if we're  willing to if those are the goals we want then we ha

ve to put our money where our mouth is so  that we can get the achieve those things that will require a vastly more massive intervention uh  of all kinds than anyone is currently comfortable with even thinking about third the West as  well as the non-russians and many regionalists must recognize that there will be some Russian  State left at the end of decolonizing and deep air imperializing the country that state must not  be allowed to re-emerge in much the same form it was in beforehand and b

y form I do not mean it's  territorial extent I mean it's psychological dispositions a Russia reduced to Muscovy that  believes that the principles that the muscovite state was built are correct and that extension  extensive goal extensive approach rather than intensive development and the use of force over  over law is the way forward will become a another headache for us I don't think anyone's going to  occupy that state but I think one's got to have one one is going to have to think about the

ways  in which how you change how you de-imperialize decolonize and denuclearize a Remnant Russian  state is the biggest challenge of all and it's one which tragically very few of the discussions  of the coming demise of the Russian Federation uh even address if that doesn't change then  we we have true problems ahead and the demise of the Russian Federation may not be one of  them but the consequences of the threatened demise will very much be so fourth the West must  recognize now not at some

future point but now that given what it hopes for and what people hope  for is a Russia that is smaller and changed will require much more effort than we ever gave in 91.  it is an it is a task beyond anything anyone has talked about it is greater than the Marshall  Plan which ultimately was a restoration of the status quoante in many ways it this will require  transformation not just restoration and it will it will force us to have to think deeply about what  we are what we are about it is sad

that we do not have more people like Liz Teague around to help  us with that task and Fifth and this is especially important to me the West needs to promote  cooperation among Russians and non-russians rather than assuming that this is impossible and it must  take the lead in having them talk to each other far too many people assume that they only want to  talk to the Russians mostly because the Russians we talked to speak English and the non-russians  don't and so the non-russians get ignored

many people who spend their time in in and think  they're Russian Specialists are in fact Moscow Specialists and the only time they cross the  Ring Road is when they have to go to share Metro Airport to fly to Frankfurt that's got to  change the non-russians have got to be part of this conversation and we need to be uh backers of  that how then would Liz Teague answer all these questions about the possibility of Russian  disintegration and the survival of Russia I think the answers are both clea

r and murky  and almost certainly important although they won't satisfy everyone on the one hand  far more than many analysts working today she would be alive to the possibilities of  disintegration in the long term after the near certainty that some parts of the territory of the  Russian Federation today will break off but she would be equally certain that this process would  likely involve the creation of Russia even more revocious than Putin's current version and thus  every part that broke o

ff would be a challenge perhaps even greater than Ukraine to those  Russians who Define greatness in territorial terms at the same time and on the other hand Liz would  certainly argue that some kind of Russia will continue to exist and that all those who today  want to break away or support the breaking away of others need to take that into consideration  that likely would have been her most important warning to those who talk casually about  the coming demise the Russian Federation and seem to

believe that it will be easy  and irreversible having foolishly convinced themselves that that's what happened in 1991. in  reality it will be neither and that is a warning for which we should be grateful to those like  Liz who we are now celebrating today thank you [Applause] before I invite the next panel to come on  stage let me explain one thing so Paul Goble is all the time referring to Liz Elizabeth  Teague last night we had a reception at the British Embassy British Embassy to celebrate 

the life of Elizabeth Teague who died last year who was a member of The Advisory Board of the  Sahara Center a very strong supporter of our work and we have recently received her archive which  is absolutely unique it's a total of 212 boxes with about 45 years of Soviet studies and  Russian studies and this archive will be open to the public as soon as we are we  enter our new promises premises and so Liz Elizabeth Teague and Paul Goble were very  close friends and so this is the reason why he

was all the time referring to her now invite  the next panel onto stage the moderator is audios Mario's Alexander Christina  unity and Nikolai Petrov IA good luck distinguished guests members of Academia ladies  and gentlemen good afternoon my name is I am cultural historian and it is a great honor for me  to moderate first expert panel can Russia survive as a unified country or is disintegration  inevitable now I would like to introduce speakers of the panel uh Dr Krishna yonetite  is an associ

ate professor at The Institute of Asian and transcultural studies Business  University she's a social Anthropologist and her research interests include political  anthropology ethnicity and religion Christina yonidita has been conducting the research  at buriat Region and Society since 2015. uh Alexandra garma chapovan Alexandra is the  president of free buratia Foundation the first ethnic anti-war movement that emerged in  response of Putin's war on Ukraine and inspired dozens of other movement

s through  Russia constituting a true ethnic Revival is also the architect of the international  densification of Russia campaign in which representatives of ethnic minorities in Russia  share personal stories about their encounters with racism in Russia Alexandra is a print journalist  with over 15 years of investigative work uh Dr Vlada baranovanova is social which is  she worked as an associate professor at the high school of economic economics campus in  Saint Petersburg and resided in 2022

research interests are in the fields of multilingualism  language revitalization and language documentation is a visiting researcher at German Institute  for international and security Affairs Berlin and a Consulting fellow at Chatham House  London focused on Russian domestic politics and its impact on foreign policy on political  regime in Russia Elites and decision making and Dr Mario's on the artist epidemiopolis uh  Mario spaniotis ephemiopoulos is the head of Department of History politics

and International  Studies he is also an associate professor of International Security and strategy at Annapolis  University path of Cyprus his specialization is concentrated on International strategy and  security cyber security hybrid threats and alliances security resilience so my dear panelists  uh uh I asked asked each of you to prepare introductory remarks which interprets the topic of  our panel I promised that each speaker will have five or seven minutes to explain his or her point  of v

iew but first of all let me quote political scientist Bruno third place from France in his  provoking article after the fall must we prepare for the breakup of Russia gave such a diagnosis  uh the start of the quotation Russia is an economically socially and regionally fragmented  country consisting of a few developed cities and micro regions and the vast impoverished and  disconnected Hinterland the end of the quotations uh what do you think how accurate is the author of  the article and what m

ethodological tools called could help us assess the processes in the Russian  Federation economic social and political sphere and what circumstances could impact Russia's  capability to sustain a longer conflict in Ukraine so who is going to be first yeah  maybe alphabetical order it will be alphabetical order I'm first thank you very much  for organizing this event and this interesting panel and I really appreciate our discussion a  panelists talk and questions from the audience but I want to s

tart not from the your question  but from the reconsidering and reformulating the questions that is title of our panel  can Russia survive as unified country or is integration inevitable because I think  that we should think about reconsideration um because nobody knows because as an expert  of some ethnic region as a republic of kalmakia and the Republic of Jewish I think that is the  probability of disintegration the creation of new of separate State on that area is relatively low  because due

to the two factors first now is that our first is the unpopularity is the idea of our  separation among uh people in the region in the ethnic Republic so the idea about independence is  quite popular among ethnic activists especially immigrants especially who left Russia many years  ago but it's not supported uh people in calmike and and to Russia it can change of course but  still we are here we are but it's also important to understand that it's a new reality too because  two years ago it was

absolutely impossible to discuss the disintegration of Russia but now  it's part of our discussion uh title of our panel and part of political agenda so it's also  Point here where uh and the second factor is the um diversity ethnic diversity of this area so  it's important to understand that Russia is not a like it's very hard to divide uh some ethnic  region uh and finding new majority very multiple very diverse ethnically diverse population  so uh it's important to discuss not the probabilit

y of this scenario because we don't  know about future but to discuss the logic of um a language ideologists are behind this  Imperial construction uh and the coloniality as a approach gives us a possibility to  have multiple call multiple picture and diversity of knowledge when we have different  historical narratives and it's extremely important both in case like a single state or  newly independent states because being a native tatter is newly independent bhash kartistan  now also can be a pr

oblem problematic so it's important to understand this this logic why  minority are why do ethnic minority feel fill themself uncomfortable in the current  situation why they ethnic activities do the ethnic activists tell about independence  and wanted so I have just very briefly three main point uh maybe looking trivial and less  obvious strategy to solve the problem first um so to say inequality in love life and death  so oh War itself uh there are many evidences that ethnic minorities are inv

olved uh in the  world more than ethnic majorities it correlates this maybe Alexander will tell about it a little  bit more but uh there are many evidences and less privileged economically less privileged areas um  give more chance to be mobilized and there are more drafts from uh ethnic regions and ethnic  republics so it's uh like hierarchy in death a second uh entered closer to my  field to my professional field um is the extremely high level of xenophobia and  racism in Russia and discrimina

tion so many ethnic minorities have been faced with discrimination  or even verbal or even physical and extremely case aggression or a lot of negative Prejudice and  stereotyping both in rental or job market so it's important to discuss those inequalities in this  Prejudice and to spread language awareness and knowledge about ethnic diversity among majority  of course population but also among minorities for avoiding this inheritance of materials like  construction then we have for example indep

endent with this problem with Qatar and so on sorry for  the same example but there are many many regions with that problem uh so language awareness  is a key factor and it's important to support different uh projects that popularize uh knowledge  about ethnic and linguistic diversity in Russia second oh sorry thought and last Point uh is  language policy planning because um Russian in Russia language policy in planning uh the the  Euro it supports the linguistic minorities and linguistic divers

ities but now it it reduce the  for example native language education after the 2018 amendments in law on education and so on  so uh it's important to reconsider the language policy and planning and my answer is uh changing  it in uh go by Young the group rights because now language and ethnic policy and planning based  on the group rights like Republic it's also connected with territory and so on but uh modern  society is so diverse and so mobile that it's important to think about it like as in

dividual  rights because linguistic rights as a part of Human Rights is a belong to belongs belong to  person not to group uh and the car and digital societies our current technology provide provide  us a lot of opportunities to have a for example a possibility to communicate with the state uh  on a digital platform in my native language have a individual educational pathway and so on  so it's important to individualize linguistic rights and to take in into account the agency of  native speakers

because my main field is language activists and language activism and it's important  that uh linguistic policy language policy planning should be local based and should include language  activists so thank you thank you very much and probably Alexandra will agree to continue on  the job which was already started by Vlada uh yes uh do you have her yeah okay hello  everyone uh thank you for our invitation uh it's a good opportunity for me and our  organization uh to uh promote our agenda um firs

tly I want to say about this problem  of the imperialization the colonization is of Russia is much deeper than  many people since for example um for example today uh Mr schwietoff had a good  speech about Russia but he very often used word um it's difficult to point for us because we are not  writing Russians we are burials we are yakutz from tuva Etc I think the world will know and would  know that we are others so we are from Russia but we are not Russians unfortunately very often  we listened

by some Russian opposition about uh Russian immigration Russian oppositionist I think  it's um your real thinking reveals your language unfortunately and for example today we always  send this word ulusi you know it's a religious in Central Asia and unfortunately in Russia to  many um anti-war activists try to contrast between bad Asia and good Europe I think in my opinion  it's your open mind its Imperial mindset too I I think um but very important we we can't think only  that its problem conn

ect with ethnicity it's not a problem ethnic Russians or ethnic burials it's  a problem of Empire unfortunately and many people today think that if Russia will collapse we will  be happy and Baltic states will be happy to it's not true in my opinion because burats for example  burata is part of Russian Federation Russian Empire very very long time and a few fourth  centuries yes and unfortunately our people bury us it's a real problem we should say about this  but in my opinion very very uh good

job for the imperialization of Russian Federation  decolonization make and make ukrainians and we should repeat about this we should  support Ukraine ukrainians and Ukraine and they now is paying a very huge price for  this job um I I think uh says for example um you you know and maybe some people audience  know uh that's uh not only ethnic Russians live in Russia when you saw that the Kremlin was  sent in Residence of the Asian and Caucasian Origins to Ukraine uh the Kremlin did not show the 

world that not only education to live in Russia but when it was necessary to die for the interest  of Empire the Korean uh began to send to Ukraine Asians and Caucasians and this is also the essence  of empire in in my opinion um last Point um I I think it's not good when many experts now  and many people discuss about collapse of Russian Federation why because Putin very very often he um  use it uses this point about if Western countries will win they will divide our great country  and we shoul

d be against Western countries I think when uh experts from Western countries and  some the colonial vertical activists use this point I I think they support uh propaganda of the  Kremlin and Putin and I think we should be a more smart and think that we support idea about  Federation or true federalism and we should strive go to federalism with Russian position and after  democratization I think many some republics will use void for independence why not maybe if some  republics want to leave the

Federation after democratization uh perhaps probably this will  be better for the Federation it's a federation itself as a new Federation will be built on  the principle of volunteerness and of federal identity why not and last point uh yes I agree  with Vlada about racism and sheldonism problem I can explain why we start our campaign the  notification of Russian Federation because in my individual situation I grew up in Saint  Petersburg and when I had some conflict in public transport and Ban

k maybe on on the street  just last argument when uh what I listened always I think go to home go to Uzbekistan go to  China and I remember my reaction when I knew that Vladimir Putin wants to the notificate  of Ukraine I said a Russian Federation Kent and the Russian figures doesn't have moral  right to the notificate nobody no one countries it's a really a big problem in my opinion why  many unfortunately citizens of Russian Federation don't want to take responsibility for  this war because un

fortunately we don't have political culture because we don't  have political culture because we don't know our Real History we don't want  to recognize our historical mistakes if we don't know about our past we can't  build future I think we need to change system of Education we need know our real history  and we need to build new country thank you mentioned that it is really important  to understand why ethnic minorities feel uncomfortable in this new situation meanwhile  Alexandra talked about

the lack of political culture uh Krishna will you agree to join other  War gun to share your thoughts on the topics which are to certain extent familiar for you because  of your uh research field sure um so hi everyone um it's it's great to be part of this conference  thank you for the invitation and um yes perhaps uh I should start with a few words about my  background as well in the perspectives that I will be kind of uh hopefully contributing to this  is as as it was mentioned in the introdu

ction I'm an anthropologist and we anthropologists we  kind of typically look at perspectives on the ground and kind of the Amic inside perspectives  on on various questions so we typically kind of spend a long time talking with people and living  with them and kind of exploring how things look from their perspective um so in my recent research  project that I started recently is actually with the kind of new diaspora from buriatia in Mongolia  so people who fled Buddha because of the war or bec

ause of conscription especially um kind of to  yeah led the country in relation to that and so um you know thinking about these questions of  this panel and of this conference you know will Russia survive will it disintegrate I'm kind of  tempted to think from their perspective or try to to think what would my research participants  say and maybe not so much in terms of their you know guesses or predictions but more so what  uh what are their you know hopes and desires so um so I think kind of i

f you ask uh the  kind of the new Uh Russian and Boreal diaspora in Mongolia members of that group you will  obviously get a quite a wide range of responses um you know you will perhaps not get kind of one  dominating sense of of which way you know would you like to go but um but I think diversity and  complexity are really key here on different levels so in one sense uh diversity and complexity  is really key in thinking about the issue on the whole like we can't really talk about the  issue of

like will Russia just kind of fall apart suddenly you know like it was mentioned in in the  previous talk that um you know will not kind of fall into a hundred pieces all of a sudden and  I think kind of Independence is also it's not a contagious virus right it's like a process that's  going to look very different in very different in different parts of Russia right so some are  Borderland regions some are not some are kind of more dominated by a certain ethnic group others  are diverse and so

on right so so the kind of starting point is is to kind of think about that  complexity and the particularities of each place um but even within a smaller group say within  one nationality within one ethnic group you will also get such a diversity of responses of  the future they hope for briatia in this case um you know some are so-called separatists  right that has a very negative connotation in the Russian context but yes some would see the  future of buriat as an independent country others w

ould see it within the Russian Federation which  is a very different kind of Russian Federation yet others look for kind of more Regional  constellations Regional federations that would be their kind of Ideal vision of the future yet  others uh kind of a small minority perhaps would even think of of Mongolia as a kind of potential  future for budding idea and so the opinions I are diverse but again for that diaspora group I think  also the the kind of shared feature an important feature is kind

of just striving towards having  more say towards a more democratic future that really I think is a kind of a dominating shared  feature of many of of my research participants and you know it's hard to say to what extent that  is shared within Russia within muriati itself I would assume kind of unofficially still many would  like to have more say in the current situation and um yeah so so I think the the kind of diversity  and complexity is the kind of theme you would get on the ground um but al

so kind of relating  back to the quote from that article that you mentioned kind of is is Russia just kind of to  maybe paraphrase it very cruelly is it kind of a random collection of places and people that that  aren't really held together by much I mean yes and no right because it is uh there are incred there  is incredible kind of diversity and disproportion in terms of kind of inequality in the country  socioeconomic and also kind of Center periphery tensions all of that exists um and in man

y in  some at least regions of Russia people even talk about Moscow as kind of foreigners or abroad um  you know although it's the same country formally um but also there is stuff holding them  together not just the oppressive regime um so so many of my research participants again  to go back to them kind of say well I'm worried but I'm also Russian not Russia but restian and  right Russian Citizen and so they kind of at this current point I think it's a time for them  to kind of rethink all of

this you know because on the one hand they say well maybe there isn't  a deliberate attack on us but then on the other hand some data kind of shows the opposite right  so so people themselves worry at other ethnic minorities themselves are kind of struggling  with this you know Russia is a in some ways a big part of them but in other ways it's also this  aggressive um Power that's acting against them so that's kind of some of the important issues that  are cropping up I would say in in the curre

nt um situation thank you very much for your  proposition to look at the at the possible disintegration of Russian Federation not  as a contagious virus sudden spread but as a complex process we which we should analyze  really carefully and I would like to invite Marius to to join our discussion and to look into  the into this process okay thank you very much ladies and gentlemen allow me first to thank the  Sahara Center um and also from vdu my dear friend director also for having a collaborati

on  together so I've been listening quite quite well this morning's discussions in all  these panels and while everybody was speaking I was thinking some some very simple but different  I think things so before I actually start allow me to be very clear on two things so people do not  misunderstand me um I'm very much against the you know the invasion that Russia did into Ukraine  okay I want to be very clear into that because for a simple reason that as a Greek if I legitimize  Russia legitimiz

e what happened in Cyprus simple now having said that the way that we see things in  the south is very very different than in the North of Europe now the question is about Russia and  while I was a student I had the pleasure to study among others Russian and post-soviet studies and  one of the things that came evident later on with my PhD was which was about NATO Russia relations  was that we read quite Russia quite wrong and the reason behind it is multifolded  one it's one eighth of the world'

s land currently before Wars two the Russian language  is used exactly because there's diversity of different populations different minorities in  Russia including also Greeks and for those that want to go back to history we're talking about the  Greeks of rustov South the Greeks in Ukraine in in as of sea and so on so forth which were actually  not only damaged and the Greek government didn't do anything about it but half of them were split  into Western Ukraine the half of them were split into

eastern Ukraine those that remain fought  with each other they give them guns on both sides to fight each other and young children were  actually moved into Russia and that happened like the first month and especially during the  time when Russians were attacking mariopol now when I was a student there was always a  question of whether Russia will remain as it is or whether Russia will become uh  in pieces I remember I wrote a paper back then I was scrutinized by my by my professor  saying that

that you know Russia could never be into pieces and now we're coming twin twin  through asking whether it can become into pieces the second question had very much to do so  with several questions that Vladimir Putin was asking at that time Angela Merkel in the Munich  conference what does Russia belong to is it a European country is it a Eurasian country and so  on so forth and she was seeing things like even NATO Russia Council he was seeing things quite  General as a game for them to keep the

m busy because in the meantime the West was thinking that  you know superpower status of Russia is no longer and the reason I'm saying this is because whatever  you see right now A we knew it was coming so it wasn't fresh and already was happening since 2014  in Crimea but there were very many elements that were actually clearly saying that there  will be something in between those two the second part has very much to do so with  the fact that Russia could never swallow the fact that they actual

ly you know the Soviet  Union had disintegrated and it was very clear that they had to do a liberal economy which at  several steps after Yeltsin they actually did the third part was that in the technology war in  the communications War even in the banking War Russia could not compete the West and in all those  equations I'm putting the United States versus Russia rather than the European Community which  was converted later to the European Union because the European Union does not have the Conf

ormity  like the United States has in order to be able to compete major powers like China or Russia and  terrestrial but in order for Putin to sustain a war you needed somebody to cover for your  expenses a comparative approach you can figure out how second world war took place where the gold  went and so on so forth so there is somebody who finances this award now in the meantime it was  called upon for Russia to resettle its economy and again since the beginning of the 21st century  we've been

noticing attempts of Russia to create its own economy in case of and that in case of  came back in 2022 now what does he want to do he wants to split clearly and he wants to play an  interlocutor game and what are we going to see we're going to see countries the CIS Commonwealth  in Penn State developing fast under Chinese rules and the Russian rules in order to create a capital  that can circulate around add to this bricks because until now bricks was not mentioned now  Brix is 38 of the globa

l GDP together combined with the new members and that's something very  scary because they were trying to find basically put clients and they actually found clientele and  guarantees that the contracts basically the loans are going to give to whatever country they will  need I presume CIS some African countries and so on and so forth it will make sense in the  meantime there is a war situation in the way that the media Russia Today for example or other  media Outlets are playing the game for Rus

sia is really different you put CNN in Russia Today on  the same subject they speak from a total different angle and they say whatever they want to say  how they want to say it for us it makes it very difficult to understand who's right was wrong  but in the meantime the numbers that come out are very specific half a million dead Ukrainian  side half a million dead Russian side and the International Community recently probably you've  seen all the Articles coming up they're saying please stop wa

r on the other hand yesterday night  The Economist published an article where they're saying that basically war is a lucrative business  and it actually is a lucrative business because whatever weapon we have now has been tested a  major warlike companies are either from the west or these depending from which side you want to  see things whether Russia is going to disintegrate uh in earlier it was mentioned the three different  scenarios and this is the reality of the matter there are scenarios

but none of them can be  practical unless there are two things one internal and external Visionary leadership  that can a lead Russia into post-war game which means repayment Etc which I still don't  know how this is going to be done because the trauma between between the former sister  countries included with Bella Russia is actually dead and Trauma after War can really  not be surpassed quite easily just like that the second part is visionary leadership  from the point of view of the European

Union as a European citizen I would like to see the  European Union taking a decision and be actually involved in stopping the war otherwise cases  like zelenski is showing the Polish government for whatever exports we're going to see more  and the reaction of the Polish government was immediate will stop weaponrying into this  secondly the big loser is the European Union not only in terms of human capital because the  ukrainians we need to see how demographics need to be recovered in Ukraine we

're going to be the  new babies there are no men everybody's fighting but the second thing is reconstruction  we promise reconstruction and if Russia is not capable to pay it back then  at that very moment then the second scenario comes along where Russia will have to split  regionally locally because the local Elites in Russia will actually want to split because  they would want not want to want to pay the bill and that is the reality so far so my second  my second part of the speech will be ve

ry much realistic I believe and I'm a pragmatist  I'm a realist I mean being in Cyprus is my latest achievement at this point but the  comparative approach on the ways that we see things from the from the south to the north  is actually so interesting there's so much difference in ways and I think it has to do so  much with the fact that we do not border Russia Russia is a big country and whether we like  it or not Russia was a very good business partner with a lot of European countries which  y

ou have to find Solutions into the next day and that's why Russia wants to create a new economy or  ironically so a lot of Western businesses reopened in Russia with different names there is much much  more to see for people in Russia first of all Radio free Europe I think we we need to push it up  again because the siren Dome that has been created on on fake news and so on and so forth really  damages the the way that things are anticipated but this this amount of this level of War and  the dep

th of the trauma that has been created has created a lot of questions were Security  Experts or people in the field cannot really answer the only thing that I'm going to tell you  is that back in the days when I was doing my PhD I had a very simple question on my PhD that  what's going to happen when the war on global Terror will finish at the time when Russia and  NATO were actually collaborating in Afghanistan and the answer was Ukraine thank you adios  thank you very much for the possibility

which was given by you to look at the different  things and processes from completely different perspective you would talk about real politics  and about and at the same time about need for Visions thank you for that and now I would like  to invite a nuclei to join other discussion okay thank you so much uh first I'd like to  react on to Alexandra's very right point and to say that I I will speak even in mind Civic  Dimension not ethnic Dimension and as you know employers are pretty often run by

those who are  coming not from the center not from Metropolis but from periphery from ethnic minorities like  Joseph Stalin or Nikita horusio for whoever uh my second point is that of course Russia will  disintegrate like all uh other employers but we should think not only in terms of Russia we should  think in terms of all remainders of big Empires including turkey including China including the  United States to a certain extent yes perhaps sometime in future this state construction will  beco

me less efficient and will be not needed to be part of the big state but now I think development  in the whole world is going in opposite direction and that's partly result of the pandemic and  result of what's going on in Ukraine as well so my point is that disintegration of all Empires  including British Empire which can continue to see is inevitable but it's not inevitable in near or  even foreseeable future and there are no signs so far that Russia is becoming weaker in terms of its  Regiona

l composition and that's why I'd like to say a few words about economy and geography and  it has been told earlier by Paul Global Russian economic model is rent redistributive meaning  that Russia lives much better than it could live if not failing natural resources so there are two  three region of Russia where resources are coming from like say two more than 2 million districts  and everybody else including ethnic regions of Russia are benefiting from this because there is  redistribution of t

hese uh well huge income what is important it's important that the center is  plain very Central role in this kind of economies so regions cannot live by themselves without  getting these huge money and this huge money and its redistribution is controlled by the second  geography Paul Goble mentioned 1935 Constitution when Stalin by the way was defining the difference  between union republics and other levels of regions and in his view in order to become Union  Republic the part of the Soviet Un

ion should have a ethnic majority uh dominance of titular ethnic  group should have not less than one million inhabitants and should have uh and should be  located at the border that's why that understand for example which is huge which is much bigger  than many other former Union republics including Baltic states uh well uh didn't get these status  it's landlocked and there is no sense it cannot even potentially think about independent existence  if only the whole thing will not disintegrate so

economy and geography matter in this case if to  speak about ethnic fact usually it's overestimated Russia is ethnically homogeneous by European  standards uh there are 80 percent of ethnic Russians in Russia and demand 23 ethnic regions  uh Russians ethnic Russians are in majority in uh majority of these regions meaning that of course  Regional disintegration is possible but let's not connect it directly to ethnic fact and how it can  work and the last thing connected with uh how uh Russian po

litical space is kept it's it's very  different from what it used to be in 1991 and I could explain this using the image of stalactite  so until recently and it was the case of uh Russia and the Soviet Union before 1991 there was the  center which was trying to control regions and power vertical was uh considered to be a kind of  stalactite then it appeared to be that stalagmite were growing meaning that Regional Elites were  becoming more and more capable to get control over their regions now w

e do see so-called stalact  meanings it's when stalactites and stalemites are making the same problem and what Putin was doing  by the way from the very beginning when he came to power was very essential step by step increase  of the Santos control of law enforcement it never existed when Putin came to power in regions and  all control agencies so it's absolutely strongly controlled by the federal saying Federal Center  I do not mean that Russia is Federation in proper census it's called Federat

ion it's centralized and  I would say over centralized and its Unitarian and over-unitarized state so my conclusion would be  that disintegration is inevitable but a kind of soft disintegration the country of Russia's size  and here I do repeat montesquious wisdom came not be democracy if being not divided onto  different parts which should be semi-independent if not being real Federation so how can you manage  the country uh from Moscow to the Far East without constructing strong police state n

o way so there  is very direct connection between democracy and federalism federalism in Russia is possible  well democracy in Russia is Possible only in case Russia will move in direction of federalism  it's not that easy it was going on in 90s when at least quasi federalism appeared in Russia it was  absolutely demolished by Putin and the problem I see and my last point is that I got status of the  foreign agent for participating in the joint work of Chatham House myth about Russia and my myth

was  that Russia after Putin will be bet and easier to deal with than Russia under Putin in my view it  can happen but probability is very low so I would uh well claim for the waste first of all not to  think in terms of inevitable disintegration of Russia uh in terms of Putin's disappearance and  thus not to block out any strategy but to work on strategy with regard to Russia which will keep  being similar over centralized state for pretty long time so it will become Federation I hope  there a

re no signs of this taking place now but if we would like to see Democratic Russia then it  should be a real federal state thank you thank you very much I would like to remind one idea which  was said by a professor we should think about this integration as the process which definitely impact  neighbors and the whole world and we should think about that also uh uh well I would like to thank  all of you for your uh great job and I understand that time around really fast we still have half  an hou

r for for questions comments and that is why I would like to invite your audience to join our  conversation to ask questions to make some remarks so please raise your hand and uh you will have  an opportunity to to speak yeah sure I prepared my homework I have a lot of questions but I I  don't want to steal the whole even by myself while the audience is still working on this  ideas which were brought by you I would like to return to to one question which was rise uh  from Provence type or anothe

r by three panelists I'm talking about Christina Alexandra and fada  uh Russian Federation comprises now comprise 83 Federal subjects including more than 20  non-slavic uh autonomous republics you already mentioned that a large part of those killed on  the Russian side uh in the war against Ukraine are soldiers from the minority dominated regions of  Russia and usually we hear explanations that often there are very few opportunities for any kind of  career outside of the military in those region

s because of economic issues and you mentioned  that you see signs of growing discontent in these regions but is it beginning of some changes  in in these regions and if yes how these changes could impact the future of whole society maybe  you could return to that issue and try to reflect because because this okay I we mentioned uh the  mention it was mentioned above Alexander and me inequalities in participating in the war and  the main reason is the economic inequalities the military career as

a social lift for people in  the region but also it's important factor there is an important factor uh that many minorities are  also supports the world as well as other Russian citizens so there is quite effective propaganda  in minority languages so there is a pro war discussion in buriad and in gal milk and I guess  it's very dangerous thing because of this text solidarities ethnic solidarities  group solidarity so they discuss um the victims during the war among ethnics  and people from our

rural area and so on and it brings the idea that participating in the war  is part of our regional our ethnic identities so it's our impact to the I don't know more  equal society and to build in new Russia so there is a quite dangerous propaganda in minority  languages and it's important also have some express some important information as for example  free burial Foundation or do a lot or in minority language so discussing the political questions  the political issue or in Native languages ye

s thank you about it I I want um to add a very  important point I think we need understand that Empire is based on the power of the metropolis  and loyal representative of the colonies uh traitors uh because uh we need to recognize  head of burial he is eating bullet uh Alexis he doesn't speak burat language he speaks only  Russian but he supports idea we need different Russian language in Ukraine it's uh without  a logic and it's important to understand that the same burial has been part of the

Russian  Federation Empire not 70 years but for several centers and in buriasia we know that live only  30 percent are 80 bullets a majority of Russians and I disagree with some discussions that's  okay tomorrow briochia will be independent country it's interesting but I think if we will  organize referendum I think 70 percent of Russians will not vote for Independence we need to be  realistic and I want to add third point about um to be honest before one year ago we we  start with my team mayb

e when in burial many unfortunately soldiers from breathia will  die and some mothers will understand that it's not good situation your son died for palaces of  Putin or some in parallel Ambitions but we have another reactions because can you imagine a  mother has son son died in Ukraine she doesn't want to think that her son died for policies of  Putin he doesn't want to believe that her son was um killer was occupied she wants that her son  was hero and propaganda by the Kremlin by the governm

ent of burrito a very active promote this  narrative yes your son was hero and he was against Western stupid values we are against LGBT we  are against four or five genders because we want to save Traditional Values it's very popular  narrative I think and it's not uh good for for me for us but I need say direct because in bulacia we  have many many propagandies of this world they are ethnic burials I think majority of propagandists  were burials and I have a status foreign agent it starts from

burial I have criminal case it's from  burial but I grew up in Saint Petersburg but many bad things and we should understand that it's  a problem more deep than many people wants to think oh we support minority and they will split  and collapse of Russian Federation and we will be happy it's not true and last point we try uh to  um promote ideas we need to know who we are we are burials we need we should know our history we  should know our language because if you know who are you you uh can be

self you can't build your  republics and we try to explain to solder their rights how they can break contracts with Minister  of Defense yes because person who know who he is who know his history he knows he's right he is  dangerous for the criminal like ukrainians today I'd like to make two uh points one is that the  picture described at the beginning that ethnic regions and peripheral regions are those where  soldiers are taking and sent to the war used to be a correct until uh partial mobiliz

ation it's no  more the case and there is special project by Baza showing the map where uh well those death from  which region soldiers were taking and now it's more or less homogeneous except for Moscow it's  understandable that uh first the Kremlin doesn't want to have public scandals which the number  of coffins sent to Moscow could cause and it's easier to avoid mobilization if you are staying  in Moscow and if you do you have a lot of money somehow to avoid this but second point is very  im

portant as well it's side effect of the war which is uh well decrease in huge socio-economic  differences between regions of Russia because if those soldiers who came initially are from  poor regions and huge money and it's needed to understand that there is a kind of business  deal so Putin doesn't Force these guys to go to the war he buys them and if they are dead then  families are getting huge money and this money comes to those regions which are not in a good  economic shape and that's why

the differences are less pronounced now in Russia than it  used to be before the war thank you very much um yeah if I can maybe continue just kind of  bringing in that data from from Mongolia as well um I feel like from conversations there especially  so I was there just recently after mobilization took off last Autumn and then again this summer  and especially last Autumn obviously people coming there were still in in quite a big shock you know  um uh kind of having just fled the country and it

was very well known so they they knew very well  usually about that data about disproportionate conscription of ethnic minorities and they  felt kind of under threat as as the Nikolai rightly pointed out the the kind of data of  the composition of casualties is is changing um but still to them at that time and obviously  the mobilization was also quite disproportionate in certain regions so for instance in  buriatia was quite a lot kind of heavier um than in Moscow or in some other regions so 

where else and worry at people from Moriarty of both um other different ethnicities did  feel under threat and they also definitely so there was a huge grievance there but also  it built upon history of grievances right so minority language rights came into the picture  like people would start talking about this disproportionate conscription and then kind of  it was in something that was completely new to them in the relationship or in the relation  off the state towards them it was something a

continuation of a long history of reciprocation  kind of minority language undermining minority languages and kind of minority rights and this  kind of Center periphery um inequalities as well and even kind of adding on to Collective Trauma  from the stalinist repressions and you know even going further back in history so um yes certainly  there's lots of grievances there and they do seem to be adding up and then this mobilization seem  to be a kind of a Breaking Point in a in a way in temp in t

erms of how people were talking about it  like oh it was all kind of distant we were trying to keep quiet and now the war kind of knocked  on our doors you know you can't avoid it anymore um but still you know it's not like huge kind of  resistance to confidence in in terms of protests or oppositional movements I mean yes there are  some but but very few and so I suppose kind of local politics are happening or oppositional  politics locally are just happening in a very different way and that dis

content is take  discontent is taken on very different forms really just kind of kitchen talk or um you know  even even kitchen talk is being Limited at this point like people re reserving themselves from  kind of talking openly with their families even about their political views about their you know  views towards Russia and and even in the closed circles of friends some kind of uh group chats  are are being um filtered through and kind of self um censored and so on so so yes but still  I mean

because we don't see big protests from afar obviously this does not mean that there  aren't grievances that there aren't theories us is in theory is discontent I think there  is and uh yes can we talk about a kind of a Breaking Point or watershed moment when that's  going to change you know it but it's not going to disappear anywhere so so let's see where that  goes right thank you very much uh I would like to return one more time to the audience this is  the last chance to ask our panelists to

make some remarks to agree or to disagree with with  other panelists please enjoy another discussion I'm afraid I'm becoming a fixture I wanted to ask  the panel uh to comment on apolog presentation while he was speaking and uh sort of talking about  the 1917-1918 events I looked up at something which I think is very important I look at the  demographic profile of the Russian Empire in 1917. it was a country which was growing by 2.5 million  people annually and basically from 80 million in 1880

it grew to 180 by the beginning of the first  war it was a country where about 65 to not 70 population were younger than 50 years of age 80  were illiterate peasants now Russia Today is much more literate much more urbanized uh much more  homogeneous ethnically we have to remember that but is also dying I mean we cannot call the  conference will Russia survive until 2124 because according to official statistics half a million  people is a net decrease in population every around about every year

now how do you think this  demographic situation it is also an old country how this demographic situation could impact  the war against Ukraine the aggression against the crime and what it means for by the way  even the most Rosy uh scenarios of either peaceful disintegration of federalization  whoever cares to us so thank you very much may I start because yes thank you very much it's  very important question because I'm also dealing with migration and have some in Russia posts  some blog on mi

gration and participation in the war the answer of the Kremlin is involved  recruiting migrants from Central Asia so there is a many unused citizens of Russia and the the  requirement for them to participate in the war at the same time of course there is a demographic  Pro problem as many European countries Russia has old generation uh less than jangan uh working  people um and there is a decrease in of number of newborn children so the migration is the main  answer but now it's migration not fo

r the work here or not for the new life in the new country  but it's migration for participating in the war so for death so my um my guess my suggestions  that uh recent years will be decreasing of migration flow from Central Asia because  people do not want to die for Russian Empire maybe you want to add something you know yeah um uh yeah just kind of building on to that  migration point I don't know it doesn't really answer the question of how it relates to the war  to the outcomes of the war

but um to the future of Russia so those who are migrating out of Russia  now so at least a million people you know we don't have the exact numbers they are mostly uh quite  young as well kind of of the productive Age and and that's going to have a huge impact on the  future of Russia whatever it is right and also um again kind of there aren't official statistics  on this but it seems like a lot of them are also Highly Educated kind of Highly you know advanced  in their fields professionally whet

her it's creatives or you know a lot of I.T Specialists  fleeing the country and so on so there's a huge kind of brain drain happening and also drain  off kind of the younger parts of the population which is the case both in you know I suppose was  across Russia with all migration out of Russia now so that's going to suddenly have an impact  on on whatever the future of of Russia is yeah they escaped to Mongolia it's all to  Kazakhstan and mobilization in burlesia um didn't similar on mobilizati

on in Moscow for  example sometimes at the night people come to home and try to go from the bed you can go to  Ukraine it's normal situation and we need to say that mobilization is continue as it's not  public information but we every day we have many letters many messages from the people in  burial who asked how I can avoid mobilization because now I have official document paper and  I need to go to the structure I don't want can I escape this and can avoid and and sometimes we  read official i

nformation about soldiers who were died in UK brain and this information for example  he died in June but he was mobilized in March this year how because Putin said mobilization was  toxic but it's not true yes and unfortunately I think as the Kremlin uses that these people  from regions very often they don't know about their rights They Don't Really to fight with  system and it's good for the Kremlin because they can send people to Ukraine but it's not  good for people thank you again I said it

from the beginning that I'm quite realist and I think  Nikolai also said it by himself at some point that you really don't believe that  muscovites are doing the fighting do you they're not and you know most wars  and soldiers are not except if they're officers or high-ranking officers I'm not from  Rich families all over the world in any War and history has proven this and you can see  whatever history you want so it's only normal they will go in in areas that until now  they've been seen as y

ou know politically unstable uh you know where Elites are fighting  with each other Etc because of no coincidence that migi Mo at the time I remember when I did a couple  of lectures with Mickey Mo they were establishing the department of political geography my friend  Igor is there and I was always wondering why you're looking at political geography basically  they're looking at Rivers in roads and trains and natural resources Etc from one corner of Russia  to the other you know and sort of exp

anding and somehow they bring back the myth of an Empire and  that's how they go on the Ukraine but going to the demographics it all depends in who's going to  remain as a leader or who's going to come a leader so let us assume that is another person like not  Putin but something else somebody else a bit more Visionary you will probably look at the example of  a baby boom in France in 1950s in order to somehow save the case now it is also quite interesting  with the Russians because the Russians

don't have a problem with regard to regarding somebody  indigenously Russian exactly the homogeneity thing nobody's wondering how did this happen in a very  short period of time and it very much has to do so with the way that somebody unites the country or  not the Soviet Union I take the ideology away it was meant to unite but again it's so big as I said  it's 1 8 of the world's land it's really difficult to control this country so you got to decide on  the system that you want you got to deci

de on the population that you want and move on to it which  means that you will see a lot of mixed families from abroad it is also no coincidence that he came  close with the the chechens and he allowed them to do a lot of other things within Moscow during  the beginning of warrants not now with regards to people being conscripts on the war we have to take  it legally he never said open War he said special case that's exactly why he did it so he doesn't  call on General totally General conscript

ion on the other hand there are other legal cases that  you know he would be accused of of War uh of war crimes from the beginning territory but we have to  be very careful when we are attempting to describe the future of Russia with a western eye Russia  was always Russia with all the goods and bads and he will always stay Russia it doesn't matter  who's the leader of the other day and they're going to be different the new reality is that that  difference is going to be evident in the way in th

eir identity that they present themselves  everywhere from International organizations to doing business and that's what he likes and  that's what he propagates on TV radio stations Etc thank you Professor I prepared for you special  question if you allowed uh well I I'd like to hear okay demography illegal uh there are  demographic waves uh and uh Russia still uh well uh expire still uh meets these demographic  uh downfall uh due to huge population losses at the time of the second world war so

put in for a  while at the time when birth rate was increasing uh at the peak was saying that this is due to his  glorious mother Escape at all program but it was never the effect so first it's absolutely the same  like in any other country in Europe uh now it's going down then uh it will uh it will go up but in  general Russia like many other countries will lose population and migration is inevitable and that's  why they are coming with calculations see how many new Russians came uh from Crimea

came from Eastern  Ukraine and it did compensate what is important in this particular case is that uh well demographic  development of uh Russian part of Russia and of Muslim part of Russia used to be very different  and birth rate and the caucuses used to be very high now it's going down as well because there are  absolutely the same Trends everywhere in the world the last young Russians nobody cares about  them because they are not needed for this economic model if you sell oil and gas you ne

ed  20 million persons just to serve the whole complex and everybody else uh well can be considered to  be uh well being fed by this complex but it's not needed for Russia's economic model and for near  future according to the Kremlin thank you uh we are almost finished our panel because we have  only three minutes left but miles provoked me to use my imagination because he said you need  to understand that Russia is always Russia don't use all these eurocentric categories used in  imagination a

nd right now I'm I'm not political scientist I'm cultural item that is why I would  like to ask a really naive question to Nikolai but I'm trying to use my imagination why it is as difficult to imagine the post putting error  in the Russian Federation as Life on Mars I was asked once this question by my student  and I was knocked out so please help me no I think it's pretty easy to imagine but it  doesn't make any real sense to me and I would repeat that in my view it's a very habitual  for West

ern politicians to think in terms of something will happen to Russia and will not  face this problem and this is very short vision and instead of doing this we should block out  the strategy having in mind that Russia it's huge and this means also that if it changes it  takes huge time to change it inertia is huge so instead of thinking and dreaming about how good  Russia will become without Putin or if breaking into parts and I would stress that nuclear arms  are located in at least 12 differen

t regions and it would be a nightmare we have to think that  well nuclear arms which are in hit enhance of one crazy man will come to 12 different crazy men  so let's not hope all it is let's hope that Russia will not disintegrate and Eve disintegrating  it should disintegrate in a soft way without falling apart but with more and more uh Freedom  Independence for constituent parts of Russia and last last remarks are for example we have it's  a long conflict between North society and in Russia an

d some people who support idea about  disintegrate disintegration they can't explain how we will solve this problem uh North  society and English inside the gestanka burden of Bulgaria it's uh one moment we will  have many local conflicts and I think Western countries will not ready to solve this problem  thank you well uh dear panelist diablada Marios Alexandra Christina Nikolai it was an honor to  have you on the first expert panel thank you very much for your be for being with us for your  in

sightful contribution to the conference work I also would like to thank audience  for their attention now we have shot 20 minutes coffee break if I'm not mistaken foreign Mike yes can we all take a seat please  then we can start the next session okay the next speaker is unfortunately not with  us today because of a conflict in calendar he had another event where he had to be but we  have him on screen we very much warned him because he is one of the world's leading  experts on Russian crime whic

h I think is extremely fitting to the current situation  so he's an expert on crime and security which as he himself commented are often one and the  same so after a stint with a foreign office in London he was as a scholar and a think tanker  in London New York Moscow Prague and Florence he's an honorary professor at the University  College in London and a senior fellow with rusi and the Council on geostrategy and among his  books are Putin's words from chechnya to Ukraine the weaponization of

everything we need to  talk about Putin and very fitting for what he is going to talk about worry  Russia's super Mafia margalioti hello well I'm very sad that I can't actually  be with you in person but I'm glad that I can at least be with you on screen and this conference  is called will Russia survive 2024 and given my own particular and probably rather morally  bankrupt fascination with the Russian underworld and particularly its relationship with the Russian  State that's what I really want

to focus in on for the next 25 minutes or so and particularly the  question of shall I say whether what we're likely to see is increasing use of organized crime by the  Kremlin or actually a closer Union between them because I've never really liked this formulation  of Russia as a mafia State because it implies that either the Kremlin is run by organized  crime that Kremlin is run by self-interested aggrandizing and vicious kleptocrats that's not  quite maybe this is me being too academically p

edantic that's not quite organized crime  but nor is organized crime straightforwardly run by the Kremlin instead what we have is  panyattia understandings certain relationship and the irony is this certainly until 2014 but  arguably until 2022 the organized crime situation in Russia was generally getting better what we  had seen after all is that the police under until area Minister called self who unlike his  predecessor who was a political policeman through and through Connor Cox he was actua

lly a career  cop which is one of the reasons why he's pretty politically insignificant these days and you know  had very much tried to actually increase the the professionalism and the effectiveness of the  police force from it has to be said a pretty low base and they'd had some progress the relationship  between society and the police had been improving a whole variety of different opinion polls  demonstrated that and that's absolutely crucial in terms of if you want a real police force rathe

r  than you're simply a state enforcement body we'd seen crime rates go up and go down in so far  as obviously there's always been a certain degree of manipulation of the statistics in Russia but  nonetheless you know broadly speaking they were heading in the right direction organized crime  clearly was still a very very powerful force in Russia but in some ways it was being pushed a  little bit away from street level activities and was more involved in the kind of institutionalized  embezzlemen

t cyber crimes and frauds those kind of things so you know with with with caveats as I  said certainly until 2014 it was an encouraging situation and arguably despite the pressures that  followed there were certainly some clear signs that things could continue to improve after  and then of course February 2022 The Invasion that changes everything and in so many ways if  there is a sort of force of cosmic Karma at work the number of different ways that Putin has  managed to derail and Destroy wha

tever remaining positive aspects there were to his regime and I'm  not saying that in any way to exonerate Putin but in something almost despite himself they have been  positive developments but these all get washed away whether we're talking about the economy  whether we're talking about Society or whether we're talking about clearly the uh the destruction  of the Armed Forces he had spent 20 years dumping money into reform specifically at the  criminal situation what we've actually seen is the

the underworld status quo coming under increasing  stress first of all a major change in Roots before The Invasion despite the the undeclared  war and the donbias and the annexation of Crimea Russian and Ukrainian organized crime had  worked hand in hand it was a phenomenally close and complex relationship which meant that all  organized crime groups in Ukraine handled a vast amount of trafficking and smuggling of whether  it was Afghan heroin flowing into Europe and as well as people being tra

fficked and so forth or  whether it was things being smuggled into Russia very close relationship which is broken  dramatically in part because frankly Ukrainian criminals can be Patriots too in part because of  the physical dislocations caused by the the war itself and in part because now for Ukrainian  gangs to be even thought of as potentially collaborating with Russian gangs means you're  not just simply an organized crime issue but a potential national security threat and the sbu  the Ukrai

nian security service has come down very hard where it suspects that so in some ways  the risks of dealing with Russians never mind the the political Dimension are just too great now  what this has meant has been you know a really seismic change for Russian organized crime  particularly because it was on the whole the larger bigger more powerful combines groups like  salsaver based him still based in in Moscow which had been most closely associated with these sort  of industrial scale transfers

of drugs through Ukraine suddenly that's no longer the case so  some gangs are actually now coming under pressure others are suddenly getting new opportunities  because we've seen a huge amount of smuggling into Russia in part this is something that  the state is using and I'll talk a little bit more about this in a moment but you know it's  pretty clear that if you can for example smuggle microchips or other components that the Russian  defense industrial complex needs but is now banned from ge

tting legally the courtesy of sanctions  well essentially if you can smuggle those into Russia the Russian state is pretty much willing to  give you a pass on whatever you're smuggling out drugs people whatever else they don't care the FSB  will make sure that essentially you you have an easy route so there is a lot of increasing sort  of State connection but there's also something much much wider purpose to the smuggling there are  still a lot of Rich Russians who want to enjoy all the perks of

their previous luxury lifestyle I was  told for example by one Interpol analyst that at present the best return in terms of the safest  and most profit bearing smuggled item smuggled into Russia in terms of profit Pi by weight  is in fact Italian designer handbags of all things largely smuggling and I suppose because  oligarchs Mistresses still need their handbags moving beyond the truly trivial we see that for  example as the supply of spare parts for high-end Motor Cars begins to become harde

r to get they're  being smuggled in all kinds of things as long as there is a market and frankly a market that is  willing to pay considerable amounts of money for what it wants the Smugglers will provide what this  has meant though is actually the other organized crime groups particularly the ones on the borders  with say Belarus the ones with connections to Armenia which is also being used as a harbor  turntable all particularly on the borders with Central Asia you know all of these gangs whic

h  maybe once upon a time were not really high-end powerful ones are now getting more powerful and  so we're beginning to see real tensions in the balance of power within the underworld something  that the state itself is trying to control then we have the police themselves Under  Pressure Putin has issued decrees saying that the numbers of police are going to be  increased well that's fine Putin can issue all the decrees he wants but interior Minister Connor  colcev has admitted that he actuall

y can't fill his existing establishment positions men are  being sent to the front the police is having to compete with a military career if all you're  looking at is what the size of the paycheck is a fair number of people who frankly don't want to  serve in the police these days knowing full well that the odds are that you will be then having  to enforce mobilization notices and the like comes who have been coming under pressure as  well as of beginning of October they're meant to go up by 10

and a half percent which is is all  very well but it won't actually make it up for a couple of years worth of real-term Decline and  since anyway most police families are dual income the police officer May well be being paid more  but his or her spouse is probably getting less the result of this is actually we're seeing  a renewal in the kind of low-level Petty and often predatory corruption which was such  a feature in in past times and which had actually been on on the decline and the point is

  the more that the police are seen as corrupt and exploitative the more tenuous their connection  with society and the worse the situation is also finally seeing the in early impact of  the return of Battle Scars psychologically scarred Veterans as well as the outflow of stolen  weapons from that uh terrible concrete already we've seen for example it's worth noting through  10 years of war in Afghanistan in the Soviet times about a million Soviets served as at some point in  in that 10-year War

about point three five percent of the total Soviet population well already  participation in Russia's terrible war in Ukraine has reached 0.35 of the Russian population and is  only going to continue so clearly this is going to be much more serious even than the Afghan war  and it's worth noting after all that one of the impacts of that has been rising armed of crime  gun crime in Russia even my official figures went up by 30 percent last year and there's no  indication that that rate of increa

ses is going to decline so increasing stresses on the system all  of which actually knocks onto the legitimacy of a regime that claimed after all that was bringing  back Security in order for the Russian people time and I said this is the next key point  I want to talk about is essentially we're seeing increasing signs of the Russian State  using organized crime for years there has been steady low level use essentially in particular  situations where the intelligence Community wasn't able or nee

ded a particular capacity we've seen  organized crime being lent on to whether it was um Espionage operations in Estonia or kill  chechens in Turkey almost more recently Berlin so some use but as I said it was very much  ad hoc individual usually the state had to then basically promise some kind of reward for  the gangsters and it was only very much where Espionage Services could not meet the  need they didn't trust the criminals now though we have a situation in which Russia  essentially is at

war with the west but I think we have to recognize this um and you know there is a  nasty kinetic shooting war in Ukraine but parallel to that there is an economic and political  war between Russia and the West and in those circumstances as far as the Kremlin is concerned  pretty much all bets are off I mean they're not going to challenge NATO militarily that clearly  is they they fully understand that that would be futile and suicidal but you know they are they  are willing to be relatively ris

k uh tolerant but at the same time their intelligence networks have  taken a massive hit with all the expulsions all across the Western Nations or various spies within  the ranks of the Russian embassies that means that they are desperately scrabbling around for new  ways of basically making up capacity and in part we've seen this through temperature recruitment  from within the diaspora of Russians who have fled though actually I would suggest that very  very preliminary and often rather anecdo

tal and findings suggested it's been much less successful  than one might have feared but also actually in terms of looking for additional auxiliaries and  this is where organized crime comes in because it is clear that they are increasingly turning  to organize crime as an instrument of statecraft abroad whether that is in terms of gathering  intelligence or much more the case whether it's in terms of trying to steal Secrets technological and  Commercial Secrets or just simply to smuggle Goods

we're seeing a huge flow everything from Western  smart fridges being smuggled in through Kazakhstan precisely because of the microchips that  they contain that can be popped out and then reprogrammed or actually components being stolen  and then smuggled in and we tend to think of this as being to do with the defense industrial complex  and that is clearly the main customer but it's not just that I mean here in the UK for example  there's been a massive increase in rural crime everything from C

ombine Harvesters to GPS devices  because they're used to track the planting of seeds and and such like and certainly the view  of the British police is that in the main this is being driven by Russia's needs so yes we're not  seeing combine Harvesters actually being shipped off to Russia but what they are done is they're  rendered down for their parts because actually they can often be worth more as a collection of  spare parts to repair existing items than as a single item the GPS systems for

example yes they  may well have a role in Russian agriculture but they may well have wider roles we certainly have  seen the case for example of Optics from Swedish roadside speed cameras turning up in Russian  drones one thing we have to acknowledge that in their own Rough and Ready way the Russians are  after all very very adaptable and they have looked for all the different ways in which components  that are going to be useful for their military but also their economy and how they can be scav

enged  from the West final example I'll give you um a couple of months ago there was a big spike  in the process of older games consoles you know Nintendos and Ataris and things like that on eBay  and the the supposition one has to say because it hasn't actually been proven beyond beyond  doubt but nonetheless it appears to have been that again people connected to Russian organized  crime were in fact buying up these items precisely because they're chips they're older chips so  they're not as go

od but they're much easier to reprogram for their use in whatever it is missiles  drones or whatever and they were being getting smuggled into Russia via respiros is really  kind of emerging as a crucial uh route there thing is that the more this happens the more that  the Kremlin becomes dependent really on organized crime it not only further corrupts the Kremlin  I mean you know if you're having to make deals you're offering the criminal something you're  not just simply expecting to do this o

ut of patriotism and the love of the motherland so  you are beginning to dilute your own control over what's going on but it also creates an  additional Temptation and this is something that I honestly don't know if it will happen  but I throw it out here as a possibility particularly given that I'm recording this  on the day when Putin is meeting Kim Jong-un one looks at North Korea again you know a Pariah  state that doesn't have to really care anymore about what the outside world thinks that

is  heavily under sanctions well they have Bureau 39. Bureau 39 is tall intents and purposes  of North Korean Ministry of organized crime it does everything from producing amphetamines  that are then smuggled for sale abroad to running complex Insurance frauds in Europe and anything  else it can think of in order to well obviously yes destabilize the West slightly but primarily  in order to raise money to help keep this starving and impoverished yet militarized and authoritarian  regime still su

rviving and I am under that if the current situation and we all hope it doesn't but  if the current situation does continue and become routinized at what point does the the Russian  State decide that instead of continuing to carry out sort of ad hoc arrangements with organized  crime that it designs to essentially try and bring it all together into something that  is much more directly State controlled uh essentially its own Bureau 39 and at that point  we really will have reached Mafia State le

vels but that's you might say one one model which  is of increasing control one can also look at it another way I mean in in theory uh if One  Believes anything in the nonsensical propaganda that Putin and his cohorts have put out this war  was launched not just for denouncification and so forth but also for the defense and the protection  of the poor oppressed citizens of the donbass well if we look at what had actually happened in  the occupied parts of the donbass region since 2014. the DNR a

nd the lnr the respective danielsk  people's republics quote unquote it's clear that these were essentially banded kingdoms that not  only were they run by a succession of often rather Macau Thugs who were exploitative predatory deeply  inefficient and often very very violent but the whole states themselves were underpinned by very  high levels of criminality it was essentially how they survived economically one can look for  example at the institutionalized smuggling of coal out of the donbass

into Russia where it  was and I'm not sure if one can use the word laundered in the context of coal but essentially  mixed with Russian mind coal and then re-exported to a considerable extent it has to be said to the  west and even in some cases and this is an example of the perversities of the situation to Ukraine of  all places but the point is it was activities like that as well as massive levels of counterfeiting  untaxed cigarette smuggling and so forth which actually not only bought off th

e various sort of  frankly gangster Warlords who were so dominant in these regions but actually kit the whole  Region's economy ticking over at a minimal level and my thought is that the other option is we  might find instead of Greater discipline than the bureau 39 model we may find in effect  a donbassization of the Russian Federation which would be a terrible and tragic irony for  for the people to Russia who are in my opinion essentially to be considered Putin's victims in  this respect a re

turn and we're already beginning to see this emerging much more openly as a theme  in in discussion but a return to the wild 90s this era in which actually the state was not able  or willing to try and control the streets and in which organized criminal and indeed business  rivalries were being played out very violently I've mentioned that that 30 increase around crime  one can also mention this toll of business figures falling out of Windows and the like it's easy to  blame the Kremlin but quit

e frankly the Kremlin has many other ways of putting pressure to bear on  people most of these in my opinion were actually more about horizontal feuds if you look at  who actually gets defenestrated they tend to be involved directly or peripherally in some  of the increasingly vicious struggles taking place over assets and resources inside Russia  as after all the cake shrinks people fight all the more fiercely to maintain their segment of it  or even if circumstances allow expand it so you know

there is a degree to which actually this one  thing that puts in frankly rather exaggeratedly but nonetheless the one thing that he could trump  it as one of his successes that he brought back a certain degree of stability after the era of the  world 90s even that doesn't seem to apply we're seeing local cabals increasingly become dominant  as Moscow is seen as a problem rather than anything else in the regions in the major cities  business figures political figures gangsters and indeed locals

within the security apparatus  beginning to band together in a way that we actually did see in late breshnavism again so it's  not actually as if they're challenging the state we're not talking about the state fragmenting  which I still find hard to actually imagine but instead we're having a kind of de facto political  fragmentation as they band together to essentially see what they can exploit Moscow for while lying  and keeping Moscow at arm's lengths so the result is a very very weak State c

reated precisely  by Putin who was so Keen to try and affirm the strength of his state so in conclusion what do I  see when I said I don't see the Russian Federation at the moment falling apart I think Russia will  survive but the question is what kind of Russia how far is it indeed going to be racked by a new  time of troubles which even Putin himself evoked as a specter in his first announcement on the  start of of pregosians mutiny he was Raising it as a kind of a cautionary child basically s

ay you you  know you everyone needs to back me or else will have a new time of troubles well just as we're  beginning to see within even the ultra-nationalist camp a growing sense that it may actually  be patriotic to be anti-putin because of the incompetence the amateurishness and the corruption  that has been evident in this war effort well so too the very acts that Putin is doing The  Logical consequences of this monstrous Invasion that he's launched actually are dragging his  regime closer a

nd closer to that time of troubles and organized crime will be in my opinion crucial  but almost also unavoidable element of that increasing instability unless something happens  to take Putin's out of the equation so that's that that's that's my take on the will Russia survive  2024 question from an organized crime perspective I hope it was useful and I'm delighted to have  had the opportunity to talk with you all thank you okay so can I ask the last  panel of today to come on stage the moderat

or is Janet Anderson and then we  have Sarah krombach from the Netherlands Janet Gunn from the United Kingdom Ian ziegert from  Germany and Robert sprung from the Netherlands oh God I can't yeah it is quite bright light isn't  it everyone have to look down so our job if you're prepared for it  panelists is to wrap all of this up and to keep everybody entertained and to steer us  safely towards our drinks and the concerts later my name is Janet Anderson I'm a journalist and I  work mainly on acco

untability and Justice issues based here in Vilnius but also sometimes in  The Hague um we have a very interesting topic for our second expert panel how to achieve  a true deservietization and deputinization I hope that my panelists will help to  provide some insights into the potential for that but I rate it no higher than that as  potential for my discussions with all of you before we set off I just wanted to pull out a  few of the comments from previous panels that I thought might be relevant

for us from the  diplomats panel we had the wonderful quote dying Empires take a long time to die and um with  the idea of is this already a dying Empire are we trying to see it speed up that dying process from  Paul grobel we had the strong um announcement that this time will be different from 1991 1991  was easy but this time won't be but then we've just had mark galiotti saying well maybe we were  actually seeing a return already to the wild 90s and what he described as the Don bastianizatio

n of  Russia with political fragmentation already there and then we had right at the start representative  from the Lithuanian foreign Ministry talking a little about freedom in Russia using I believe  a quote from leonis doncus whose name uh and whose memory this uh conference is uh all  about and saying freedom is some kind of a test and I think maybe we could consider how  Russia can actually pass that freedom test I don't know about you but most what I've most  enjoyed in this conference is

the diversity of the analyzes here there's been a lot of  consensus on Ukraine on how bad things are that change is needed and even that nobody none  of us are actually sure what that change will be but again I think we have here four amazing  experts with a complete diversity of approaches uh we have people who know more about culture about  institutions about security about Civil Society so very very different and I'm going to introduce  each of you in turn as I ask you to speak and then draw

the others into the conversation with  you so I'm going to start off with Janet Janet Gunn who's an independent analyst focused on  post-soviet and central European Politics the areas that she worked on for many years at  the British foreign and Commonwealth office most recently though her Focus has  been on humanitarian relief in Ukraine but Janet the question that I posed to you  was whether you can help us by understanding the institutional challenges that may be  faced for real desovietizati

on and real deputenization please kick us off thank you  Janet uh I think I'll start with a quotation from a sadly now deceased British professor  of Russian Soviet and Russian politics who in a conference on Russian foreign and security  policy in the UK about 20 years ago suddenly said why is Russia always trying to be a great  power why doesn't it try to be a great country like Denmark well at mention of Denmark  many Russian faces present fell to the floor and maybe I would personally have s

aid Canada  rather than Denmark because it's a big country and as we know many Russians have a very  clear idea that large countries and great Powers have very different rights to small  countries and I think in the country we are situated today they know that very well from  history now what would constitute becoming a great country as opposed to a great power  that's what I've sort of been asked to address um and we're talking about Fantasyland today  because personally I don't see it happenin

g anytime very soon certainly not by 2024  which is the date we are asked to focus on maybe not in my lifetime but possibly in  the lifetime of many younger people present and talking about institutions I don't only want  to talk about sort of what we might call official structures which Russia has but many of which  have been hollowed out in the last 20 years or so but institutions in the broadest sense and the  first one I would put and the one I would put at number one is Freedom of Informati

on a  free media because none of the rest of the reform that could be implemented in Russia would  work if there were not Freedom of Information um no the the bad news is first you've got to have  political will to free the media and allow freedom of expression Freedom of Information and that  clearly has not happened recently but the good news is that if that political will were present  it could happen very quickly because Russia is not short of brilliant journalists some of them sadly  have h

ad to leave Russia but some are still there and I think if the circum is this Fantasy Land  existed many would go back so that could be an easy win and it is absolutely vital as was clear  not just from 1991 but from earlier from 1985 when Gorbachev actually at the prompting  of his second in command Alexander yakovlev stress the need for glassnest openness to discuss  a history and be honest about history and the repressions and katin and other terrible things  that had happened under Soviet po

wer secondly to allow a debate about reform and allow ideas to  be exchanged and allow Russians who had been told for decades that private Enterprise was a devil  incarnate and change slowly change that mentality and thirdly to promote reforms among the people  and persuade them to go along with them a second absolute requirement would be an independent  judiciary and the rule of law now looking at the Ukrainian example this is not easy Ukraine  is still struggling with making creating a proper

independent Judiciary It's Made Real efforts but  it has found it an extremely difficult challenge and for example if you look back at Czechoslovakia  uh 35 years ago and and other countries the issue of lustration comes up and it's very  controversial it was very controversial in Ukraine in Czechoslovakia president Havel put a stop  to last illustration because he thought that it was too divisive but I think after what has  happened in Russia recently illustration of a sort is probably a requir

ement for example  those judges who have sentenced navalny and lots of unknown names to prison for  15 years or more for calling a war a war George Orwell couldn't have even thought of  that one those people should be made held accountable for what they have done then thirdly  accountability for all in state institutions in particular the security intelligence Services  frankly I don't know how you go from where we are now where the intelligence and security agencies  in Russia actually run the

country even in Soviet times they were underneath the control of the  Communist Party but for the last 20 years they have run the country how you get them under some  kind of democratic control is a massive challenge whether it's a parliamentary system which I think  unlikely because Russia will probably pursue what it regards as the normal way for a great power  or a large state to pursue a presidential system it doesn't matter whatever institutions  they choose have to be made accountable when

you come to the to actual governmental  institutions I won't include in this the law enforcement institutions which need the  same accountability as the intelligence and Security Services but the ordinary uh you  know economic Ministries Education Health Care all of that that's not a big problem even  in the time of War even if the head of the Central Bank wanted to resign and wasn't  allowed to those economic Ministries have done quite a good job of evading sanctions  and get keeping the econo

my sort of running even if the statistics we now see about  the economy obscure the fact that what looks like GDP is a huge amount  of it is going into the military and then finally I would mention decentralization  now in the wake of what we've just heard on the other expert panel decentralization in Russia  links into this issue of fragmentation and so on which I don't want to talk about but I  thought Nikolai Petrov put his finger on the spot we need what he called federalization  and I'm goi

ng to call decentralization uh is a very important way of encourage  democratizing encouraging democratization because what we saw in Russia 30 years ago was  a sort of democratization from above okay we'll have competitive elections even if some of  the part political parties are just bogus um and and we'll all go to elections and say we've  got democracy a real democracy comes from Below and decentralization of government can  help enormously Ukraine some of Ukraine's resilience that we've see

n in the war is due  to the decentralization program started by poroshenko in 2015 which has been very successful  in empowering local voters where they see that their Mayors have actual powers and budgets to  improve their schools their hospitals their roads and so give a meaning to election local  elections they know what they're voting for and so that's the kind of decentralization which  I also would like to see in this Fantasy Land thank you Janet for uh taking  us to your Fantasyland sir u

m I don't know whether this is a realistic  question but is there anybody or any groups who are who would be able to uh to take us by  the hand and get us there can you see anybody who's going to help take us to Fantasyland getting  us there as I think the hardest thing to imagine if we'd got there I can see lots of people there  in Russia and currently outside it who could do all those jobs and sort it out but to get to  a point where you have in effect decapitated the state system as it is now

and taken off  not just put in but this whole infrastructure of Former Intelligence and security officers and  everybody else who's been co-opted into it frankly and to just take that lid off decapitated not  not physically I'm not promoting any guillotine a nice thought actually a guillotine in the middle  Red Square but anyway no literally decapitating the system and introducing something different I  I cannot in my mind imagine how we get from here to there sorry who well let me um ask uh Je

ns  yes to to join in uh Jens is living in Moscow has lived there since 1993. uh he was the founder  and director of the Moscow Office of the German Heinrich Bowl stifton he's published several books  uh his specialty is a number of different areas the Russia Western relationship the structure of  Russia's political system and Russia and Civil Society issues and I asked you to to concentrate  specifically on civil society to take on from Janet's very broad sweep and um Robert Van  foreign actual

ly in his opening remarks talked about the other Russia quote-unquote is civil  society the other Russia it's a good question I don't honestly I don't very much like this term  the other Russia because this is only a part of Russia not another Russia but one part of Russia  and it is very very mixed up everything I I don't think I I even don't like really the term of Civil  Society because there is no separate Society from society which is a civil society but there is  there are society which ar

e more civil or less civil and the Russian society and the Soviet  Society especially have been very in this sense uncivilized Societies or militarily militarized  societies everybody everything has had a rank even in in Old Russia it is this system of civil  servants even even the world is not the I don't know another English word therefore there's a  German word word which is functionary functionary yeah maybe yeah it it and only if you have had  some some rank in this function or you have bee

n um a part of society in in the old Russia in  in in Soviet Union everybody almost everybody had a uniform yeah the uh the judges uh the  fire brigade everybody everybody has a had a military rank and in this sense the task for  Russian Society was to become more civil not civilized but more civil and it was that was  what really in a way uh really happened uh after uh the breakdown of the Soviets of the  Soviet Union in in in nowadays nowadays Russia um but we are now talking about uh yeah wha

t  to do when the next possibility the next chance in in Russia the next chance for Russia will be  there when this will be how we will come there I I don't know either and I I don't trust anyone  who says uh I know but I'm very sure that this chance will be and the uh actors of this charm  the activists of this chance might be people we are not talk we are not thinking about like in  perestroika as well Gorbachev was not uh and and and and his his whole biography was not leading to  this situat

ion uh maybe with one exception uh this is a sort of a generational thing he was like yes  he was uh from uh from a generation which grew up um uh in and or became a political Consciousness  in the in in the time of the Thor after stalinism almost almost all main actors of perestroika of  glass most were of this uh of this generation and such Generations uh we can see um  on in other uh uh situations in Russian history as well we you can see it on the in  The Decemberists uh uh in in 1825 this w

ere young officers who uh took part in the Napoleon  Wars um the people who are were conducting the dissident movement uh all grew up in the main  stalinist time uh with with the repressions people who made uh who were in the uh the main  forces in the protest against Putin in 2011 2012. uh were the the children of the perestroika people  and and people who were uh demonstrating in Moscow in 19 in 2018 2019 in in favor of or against the  arrest of navalny were again the children of this children

so there will be again some sometime new  new generation who will which will come forward what uh regarding uh Civil Society or  a more civil Russian Society so uh the Russian Society really became much more civil in  this sense in the last 30 years I in a way until totally recently a few few years a few years  ago it it it it happened even so uh not only um against Putin but partly because of Putin  because Putin and depression pressure and the repressions of Putin against Civil Society actors

  against ngos and activists as well forced them to professionalize that was in in in in a in a  sense it was a an education program for them uh in the 90s where everything was free the  efforts people had to do and uh the thinking they had to do to come activate active in in  society haven't been so much as uh in this time uh of pressure and repressions uh uh from from  Putin and this in in a way it uh at least in my opinion it it really works and that is um there  is behind that there is anoth

er reason you Russia after 91 had all signs of a democratic societies  there has been a constitution not a bad one okay you can argue we can argue about the centralized  uh thing they have been uh in principle Free Press yeah it has there has been uh competition even  even though uh the uh many uh television channels uh newspapers belong to to uh big corporations  or to to rich people but they have been been competition between them they have been even uh  at the beginning of an independent juri

sdiction system at least partly at least in that case  is where not the state interests were involved directly were directly involved yeah but uh a  problem was that the many of the actors in this areas were not convinced uh that this is necessary  so so that there was in in a way it was a a society with a a a a more or less Democratic  structure but it lacked Democrats Democrats convinced Democrats and this is a little bit like  a bank if people are not convinced that the bank is working then t

he bank is bankrupt the bank  can pay the debt then the bank is is bankrupt and the last last point and a main mistake and  you mentioned that uh uh two as well um there has been no uh real condemnation of the Soviet crimes  this has all been always been this has always been more or less a civil society thing there have  been strong organizations they have there is there has been and there is still Memorial uh very  uh uh a very strong organization which has done a tremendous work towards that b

ut the society  as a whole in the state did not really condemn the crimes there is no there has there has been  no no trial there was a talk about Nuremberg today there have been attempts at the beginning of of  the 90s but in in 93 with all this turmoil this was put out and this is will be in this Fantasy  Land uh you are talking about I I think this this will be a core task for those who are then  acting in Russia to make sure to condemn and to officially condemn to have a officially State  po

licy to condemn the crimes of the past the Soviet crimes for sure but now uh the recent  crimes as well maybe it's a strand for the uh about the vietization deputinization you mentioned  to me while we were chatting that you're writing a new book which I know it's in German so I  will mangle the title into English can Russia do democracy something like that so I'm wondering  I mean what your answer is is it possible and then I'd like to ask Janet to comment on that as well  uh you know the answe

r no would be a racist answer because yeah because you know the Russians are  people and so they are capable of of democracy and and I talked about that and we have talked  about uh today about that there has been a lot of attempts and and uh and and and it tries to  to become uh Democratic so I'm empirically I'm an optimist as well uh but uh this uh the the the the  question has two parts uh are they capable I say yes will there be a democratic Russia I don't know  Janet I think I agree with th

e ants in principle yes they can but I don't know how long it will  take and I don't know who will lead them there I think it was naive to think that you  know within 10 years or one generation uh Russians would become like West Europeans in  terms of their attitudes to the state and one of the very big I think personally a defining  feature that differentiates ukrainians and Russians is their the attitudes of those Nations  to their the authorities who rule them and it's very different in Ukrai

ne and it's partly because  their history has partially been under a different system parts of Ukraine were under the Hungarian  Empire and part of it under the Polish Lithuanian Grand duchy or maybe here I should say the  Lithuanian polish Grand duchy so there are there are elements of another experience so how  do you build democracy I mean our democracy in Britain grew through the guilds and all sorts  of other Grassroots organizations it's a long long process usually but I think in theory it

's  possible but who will lead them there and how long it will take I don't know I've heard it said that  Russia needs in place of an ideology of worshiping the victory in in the second world war it needs  a bard of some kind a cultural figure a poet a writer who will Who will be able to give them  something new in a sense of national identity Bridge into Sarah who's going to join the  conversation now Sarah krombach is a Pianist and an expert on the music of the former Soviet Union  the Caucasu

s and the Central and Eastern Europe she works at the University of Amsterdam and she  I think brings a different perspective with these insights drawn from Russian literature to this  question of desovietization Sarah thank you Janet by the way one must be able to see the beauty  of our people apart from the apparent barbarism one should not judge the Russian people for its  money shameful Acts but for the great and sacred Ambitions that it cherishes no don't you judge our  people for what it i

s but for what it wants to be and we must tear ourselves away from  Europe because in the eyes of Europe we are only followers and slaves  our mission is another one I speak of our continuous desire for a glorious and  Universal Brotherhood in the Name of Christ the Russian soul will be the spiritual  savior of the rationalists West well perhaps you understood these are not my words they're the words of the sayevsky in his  diary that he wrote at the end of his life and today in this conference

we undertake a  search for a possible Russian future and we have seen already many kinds of answers there  was hardly any doubt about that Russian future that future needed to be separated from Europe and  Russia had to believe in its own unique mission well not everyone agreed in dostoyevsky's days  in the 19th century in fact this was a period of heated debates with regard to a Russian  soul and also with many speculations about past present and future and every artist  and Scholar was involve

d in this debate the main questions were who are  we and what is our destination well dostoyevsky's older colleague the  poetsky gives us a different picture in his rather sarcastic poem the Russian God  and here I will quote a small part of it do you need an explanation  what the Russian God can be here is a rough approximation as the thing  appears to me got a frostbite got a famine Beggars cripples by the yard Farms with no crops  to examine that's him that's your Russian God of Brandy pickle

vendors those who Pawn what  surfs they've got of old women of both genders that's him that's your Russian God fools win Grace  wise man be wary there he never spares the rod of everything contrary that's  him that's your Russian God so far the awesome scheme well he's  for a modern reader easy to recognize is more or less exalted Reflections on  Russia's great Mission are clearly also a source of inspiration for for instance Putin  anyway the 19th century was a period of debate so was also the

first decade After the  Revolution it was still characterized by debates and uh but this whole phenomena  of debates was completely crushed by Stalin who driven by a pathological hatred and  paranoia left no room for a discussion post stalinist Society was in spite of NAD  stalinization or Thor never a place for open debate but there was an Intelligentsia and also  a caste of dissidents who continued the quest of their predecessors from the 19th century and  the various narratives were actually

remarkably similar for instance sarginizin developed during  his years in the gulag slavophile ideas that will become very popular even fashionable in the  1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union in his eyes Russia had a mission apart from  Europe and it should be the savior of Christianity his counterpart a mulrich came to the opposite  conclusion comparable to for instance Maris Pasternak only a true respect for individual  Freedom will be an option however amalrik was not an optimist ac

cording to him the regime  weakened itself and it would Clash with a more or less constructive middle class and with the  destructive masses it was only a matter of time now I quote him our regime is only focusing on  the continuation of its own power and drawn out exhausting War prosecuted by decrepit leaders will  drain the Soviet Union of resources and legitimacy we heard this quote earlier today I think it was  uh Robertson yes well this quote is still relevant although the predicted war wit

h China in his book  is not very likely but many other elements of his texts are rather prophetic we do have again a  drawn out and exhausting War and the regime is low losing its resources and its legitimacy now  when we return to the role of the thinking part of society we seem to be back in the darkest years of  stalinism and this thinking part is now castrated and enslaved again the artists and Scholars are  again Engineers of the Soul used by the regime in order to convey the message of a g

lorious past  present and future the message of a great people that is the Eternal victim of the evil West that  only has one goal to undermine and destruct the greatness of that Nation well this self-image of  Eternal victim is perhaps would should worry us the most as long as someone wallows in self-pity  there is no room for self-reflection open debate or any kind of solution this is even more  the case if this someone is a whole nation brainwashed by a power hungry leader who's  driven by ha

tred and destruction this is even more the case when this nation has been deprived  of its oxygenating cost of thinkers and artists the thinking part of the nation today is  imprisoned or it lives in Exile this is tragic but it might be a source of Hope after all it does exist and it might become a motor for  the sovietization and the putinization as we've seen today that road will be long and  painful and it requires many strategies to heal our thick patient one crucial strategy for us  accordi

ng to me is to look for the wise man and to give them our full  support thank you thank you Sarah um can I ask if either of you to have a response  or something you would like to ask Sarah is that what it reminded me of was Mikhail  shishkin's words where he was I mean particularly this idea of this one big Master Class of Russian  silence particularly around the Ukraine war I I'm wondering who is it who is there who is making the  arguments within is there anybody actually left inside Russia wh

o are making the arguments about  decolonization and and these or has everybody left it's not I think everyone left well there are  still there must be people there but it's too dangerous to open your mouth so it's impossible  it's not only well the topic of our panel is decolonization but it's not oh it's it's it's  about much more than that especially in the case of Russia decolonization is a very complicated  thing it's not only imperialism and colonizing other nations but there is a very str

ong uh in  inner I would almost say spiritual uh colonizing of the mind of also Russian people so the the the  the whole idea of uh individual Freedom this is what I have in mind it's even more important that  should be probably the first step before we can converge please end no there is a discussion going  on but those who are speaking out loud in Russia uh at the moment are either already in prison like  navalny uh or not only him or they risked to be in prison so the the the the voices we ca

n hear now  at the moment that are mostly people who are in Exile yeah there is Alexander Atkin for example  who wrote uh a book about uh the inner the inner colonization in in in in Russia 10 years ago and  he's now publishing another a new new book about that he lives in Florence so um and these people  can speak can speak out there is a discussion going on but the situation at the moment is that  Russians in Russia who speak out risk a lot yeah Janet a couple of points what we have in a way 

as a reverse Sami start at the moment instead of lots of carbon copies being smuggled into the  West we have the words of those who are able to uh speak the truth being conveyed via YouTube because  YouTube has not been on telegram have not been shut down because the Russian authorities need  their own channels to get their propaganda out so voices are being heard in Russian Russia by  those who choose to it's a Christian personal choice the only other point I would make was  from listening to s

ome of these quotations that Sarah has given us it's God and Christianity  constantly being ever invoked Christianity has been co-opted for the most disgusting  purposes by the current regime in Russia and one of the necessary reforms for the  sovietization no it isn't deshaviorization in this case it's deputinization is to put the  Orthodox Church back in its place where it belongs and not calling for fire and thought  against ukrainians the way the current Orthodox Church leadership has done w

hich  is a blemish and a stain on its history could I add something here because  you're mentioning the Orthodox Church um by the way it's not unique that Christianity  is playing dual Universe in politics we see that everywhere secondly the Orthodox Church yes no  in the case of Ukraine it's even more painful but the church was always one and the same  with power it's not new it's not something for Putin it was always one very well a Unity to  we would say in Dutch two hands on one stomach that

's the same phrase in English yes  that's a structural problem of all national Orthodox churches in in all Orthodox  countries Serbia yeah because the the the main difference for for example through Roman  Catholics is that the Roman Catholics are in the in a way independent they have their they are  international and all this Orthodox Court the churches they are National churches and uh  this uh uh produces or this uh makes this structural program that they are mainly even more  conservative th

an the state I'm going to pull us away from this aspect of the conversation because  Robert's been waiting patiently uh to join in here uh Roberts Bronk is an independent consultant on  security matters after many years at the Dutch intelligence service where he was director of  operations with responsibility for all domestic and foreign intelligence operations including  cyber operations sigint and foreign cooperation now Robert you very kindly let me ask you a few  questions rather than prepar

ing your uh your own speech so I'm going to kick off by asking you um  you've already expressed to me how pessimistic you feel and I wanted to know after a day of  listening to the various expertise here have you heard anything to alleviate your pessimism  about the future about Russia no at the contrary no and and you you won't like this but  but the reason for my pessimism is that um you know that there is no civil society as  we as we know as we look at it in Western Europe not at all there's

no Collective uh desire for  individual freedom there's a lot of mistrust among the population which is understandable  by the way and and um they are for centuries in you know they're used to live along the lines  of power just to survive and nevertheless you have you have people who uh resist the regime  and and I have a great respect for the the protesters Etc but it's a tiny tiny minority and  and don't forget that the grip of the government [Music] is intense and um well we regularly  see

the uh the examples of how the regime deals with the opposition uh whether the previous  presoking or uh uh Street pal or you name it yeah um so their the oppression is is immense  and prevents any change for the better oh and and if I may may add something I I  I uh you mentioned earlier uh Memorial um you know part of being a normal country let's  say a civil society is dealing with your own history coming to terms with your own history and  if if we look at all the atrocities which occurred i

n the past and Etc and and more or less the re  uh or the the you know the putting style in on a pedestal again and it's disgusting and it's it's  exactly and it's for me those are all signs that that are very pessimistic and and apart from that  it will not come from the population forget it yeah and there's too much fear and and too much  oppression and uh but who who will spark off the uh I'm gonna ask the change I don't know  just before um I'm sure yes will want to uh to comment I want to m

ention one one other thing  you know to as an example of the deeply rooted um oppression of the state and and on the 20th of the  December in 1970 thezinski established the checker and effort since that day the 20th  of December is being celebrated the KGB nowadays the svr the FSB the Giro  and whether you're an old official in those services or you're a youngster just enrolled  in it they all celebrate the 20th of December you know and and it it is a clear  example of the viciousness and and um

yeah well of the of of the current uh  regime and and it will and it will it won't change okay I'm going to let yes have a return  in a moment but first I wanted to um ask you um I mean your previous work has been very much  conducted in secret so behind the scenes um we had a reference uh earlier I think from Janice  but Sam is that literature and you know Freedom of Information and and changing points of view of  people is there anything you can tell us about the prospects for influence opera

tions within  Russia to actually change what's uh what is going on yeah yeah absolutely uh you know um first  of all um I was by the way very happy by the way uh previously was mentioned that we have this  um a word of escalation which is ridiculous and uh but in another one is that we have we should  not uh embark on a second uh cold war with Russia well um tear up it never went away and there was  a uh [Music] for a short while a little in the uh in the battle so to say on the on the Yelchin b

ut  gradually when Putin came to power they stepped up their intelligence activities as it was from  the heydays in in what we call the the Cold War it still exists and um you can leave it there  I think it's fine it still it exists and and um we have we have talked about the war in  in the Ukraine that that I'll call the the visible War but we also have an invisible  war and and that's being fought between the the the intelligence and Security Services  of the West against the Russian services

and we can could do more because for a long time we  were let's say we limited ourselves to being on the receiving side and the the past couple of  years they made a huge effort in conducting cyber operations against the West and I give  you an example which is very disturbing and um that they try to embed themselves into the  I.T Management Systems of infrastructural uh systems in the west which you know putting  software in in in in the management of a nuclear power plant of chemical factories

  or essential transport companies Etc which actually is a Act of war with you know you pre  you do that because you want to prepare yourself for a future War and of course we we you know  we we try to detect it and and to uh to counter it with counter measures Etc but it um and it's  going on until the day today and um but as I said we restricted ourselves to defensive measures in  that respect but we should uh take off the glove and and undermine their their own infrastructure  militarily econ

omically you name it and uh and don't be shy to uh to confront to to have the  confrontation with them and on the other hand you know trying to as we as we did in the  high days of uh of the so-called Cold War all kinds of influencing or operations with  you know uh with the Press with journalism and and on the other side exposing  the useful idiots who are still today advocating the uh the noise from the Kremlin  in in so that's something where we could do much more than we do today and and  so

mething else is you know diminish the The Diplomatic presence in in the west to the  bare minimum in order to to deprive them of their capability of using the Diplomatic representations  as uh basis for their intelligence and influenza in in operations Etc we do already but it  can be done more yeah and wondering about the these scenarios for fragmentation  in Russia and we've had some very um scary portraits um uh multiple Wagner militias  each armed with their own nuclear devices or local conf

licts that might be very difficult to  manage how is the prospect for fragmentation seen within your world well it differs a bit  that's that's very Grim scenario of course but that's all based on speculation you know there  there are no hard facts uh which uh could uh um substantiate that and but apart from that  the system won't change I'm very pessimistic and and this pessimistic is is brought among the  intelligence and Security Services in in in the west and um you know the position of the

system  is very very strong don't underestimate it and um and if if I may uh what  could we what can we do you know um we should I already suggest take the gloves  off reduce their diplomatic presence what else do we need to do isolate the country  isolated you know um and as much as we can um maximize the sanctions you know and um and  focus the sanctions on uh of course the carpody to the copy but also on the on the others in his  surroundings his the power of circles around him in the hope th

at perhaps that could cause a crack  in a crack in the system and and not only the population is at fear is living with fear but the  whole power system is also based on fear and and um and if you can exploit that in  a way by putting maximum pressure on on the regime I think that that that could  be helpful yeah I'd like to encourage our other panelists to pick up any of Robert's points  and I particularly encourage you to say if you disagree with him on certain things and  we're speaking about

isolation of Russia uh um where the Civil Society exists to any degree  or these the population is so-called that it uh it couldn't possibly do very much and challenging  the useful idiots here in the west what would you like to pick up well on certain points well I I  do not disagree um with the fact that well I'm not more Optimist if we talk about the system the  regime the the the country as such where I do not agree is that it would be really a Pity to put it  mildly to again have this kind

of situation with the whole uh lack of diplomacy but I would like  to emphasize that we should look for a cultural diplomacy I think it's crucial to have this kind  of diplomacy on the level of scholarship on the level of artists um it is very important another  point is well yes I do share more or less your Reflections but some things are not unique for  Russia for instance a lack of self-reflection um the the myth making with regard to National  Heroes is actually uh quite normal in many many

countries it's not not unique for Russia only  now we see in the case of Russia this disastrous war that is different it's not going on everywhere  but myth making and and celebrating your own Heroes and having being blind for a crimes from  the past is actually I only know one exception only Germany had a serious self-reflection I  would not know maybe the Netherlands the last two and a half years with regard to colonialism  I'm glad everybody else has a word first Janet I've got mixed feeling

s about the notion of  completely about about shutting down relations with Russia completely I agree that sanctions  should be tightened up if possible particularly these back channels I know I know that Western  governments are trying to do to do that um but I would say that in Soviet times  minimizing the numbers of Soviet diplomats in our countries might have reduced or or seriously  reduced the amount of Espionage and subversion but these days it's not like that there are  lots of Russians i

n our societies who can do the work instead so I'm not sure that that is  is is a very water type policy over to the end we'll come back to you in the end maybe it comes  a little bit like a surprise but I very much agree um uh with the notion that the Navy of  the west of Western politics towards Russia towards Putin uh is is or was at least a  major contribution to the situation we have now and many people including me have called  especially experts on Russia have called uh on to take a lot o

f things much more  serious than than that but and knows at the butt I'm against a solely securization  of this question everyone securization um only one or two examples there is this notion  of a hybrid War we are in a hybrid war that that was something which was mostly brought up by the  Russians not only but they made it a big thing uh first and then it was adopted in in the western  discourse about around the annexation of Crimea but the discussion began a little bit a little  bit earlier u

h on one hand this is really what is going on from the Russian side and you described  it quite quite correctly but uh I think that we shouldn't go this way but because we are in if  we are going there we are playing Putin's play uh the uh our advantage and not our advantage  but but uh the way I want to live and I want to continue to live in a free Society is to very  clear make a distinction between war and and and and and and uh and peace and and Civil  Life For example the next you talked ab

out um journalists and uh and information War I  I'm a former journalist and the the the the the thing I don't want wanted to be if I I  would be would be working as a journalist I don't want to be a competent I I am I am not a  soldier in in any war from any side and we must our we don't fight our freedom in uh we don't  protect our freedom uh in making the same uh thing uh uh uh like like in Russia so we have to  uh what what what happened what happened in in in perestroika and in that time pe

ople in Russia and  the Soviet Union wanted to live like in the West there is a problem with what they thought  living in the West was about and I think their uh imagination was much more about uh  the materials part of of of the thing than the immaterial part about freedom and when Freedom  came to Russia uh with all its good parts and all its ugly Parts yeah the ugly Parts prevailed  and people were shying away that's that's a main problem we now have that in in Russia many people  people uh u

h connect freedom and and democracy but but much more freedom uh with uh a state who is  failing with a staling fate and economic downturn and then Putin came into power and he has and  that was not not uh uh due to his effort but it was his his luck that that the oil price  went up and uh uh the uh rule of Putin in in people's mind in people's mind connected  with uh a more well-being being in in in in in in in life and uh the task is uh to uh  to this to this to destroy this connection Robert

this small word and then I'm going to open to see if we have a question  or two from from the audience you don't have to say anything if you don't want  to no yeah but uh yes but but more or less we agree yeah um and and now what sprung to my mind  was a part we had we had this discussion about the word escalation and there but there are still  people will also say you know we have to have a dialogue with uh with them is ridiculous  you know what's there to what's there to to reason about becaus

e that's my words don't  have any meaning and we should stop with these ridiculous phone calls you know with Putin but but  what's what what are they trying to achieve you know and um and there's one other thing I I want  to say is that previously there was [Music] today were a bit critical about the leadership in the  political leadership in uh in the West uh about standing up firmly against the Russians and um  but you know there are also there are exceptions and and and in the Baltic states a

nd the polls  are doing a very uh great job and and and I don't want to be chauvinistic but my own prime  minister is also someone who is uh constantly advocating the uh the right tone and you know  trying to set up this FCX 16 Coalition because you know we need to to support the ukrainians to  the maximum it has been mentioned many times this today they are fighting our war yeah and it's  for us it's also not only for the ukrainians but for us it's also an existential war and but  in in there I

differ a bit with you you know um for me uh all means which which can be helpful  to achieve our goal to to contain them and and to to undermine the system is for me is okay yeah  but and and if we use counter propaganda with the um now let's phrase it in another way we we should  refer from always being at the receiving end yeah and we should rattle their cage and and um  please use counter propaganda but let me out as a journalist a journalist during the Cold  War journalists were very active

in Canada me me maybe you don't need to if you choose  to but but not me yeah okay okay I'll just uh pause that for a moment and see if we have  any questions from Bob wow we have at least a couple of questions I think you have not asked  a question yet sir so the gentleman here uh no I wanted this one first please yeah that one  first and then yeah thank you very much I am Vladimir Moringa independent and I'm retired  thank you very much for this panel Jeanette just two sentences about the las

t panelist  from Netherlands you know I'm totally agree it's necessary to resolate  we have the good examples with all these sanctions with all this what  we are talking two years and more maybe eight about sanctions maybe more than  eight with the Northern Korea in the past you remember the regime of the  nicolasco in Romania this was big isolation and a little bit cultural talking with him  but in reality the empires are dying slowly can we do more at the control of these sanctions  this is my

question thank you and the gentleman behind who wanted to ask the question could  we give him the microphone thank you yeah I'm sure is Magnus University I have a question  regarding element of realism I mean I I miss in all the discussions kind of real politic and I  would like to start it my question has two two elements first element it very often reminds  me like Soviet discussions about for example how backward were basmachi movement in Central  Asia they didn't understand the value of the

Soviet Union you know a bit about the progress  which is brought by the Soviet Union forward and to this is related another part of my  question that somehow I think with all this one we speak about the values when we speak  about you know the progress um we try to you know to see that democracy versus autocracy Etc  but when you look at the second world war what do we have I mean we have Nazi Germany which was not  Democratic having alliance with Finland which was you know Democratic country o

n the other hand you  had British Americans allying This non-democratic Soviet Union against the Nazi Germany and  their blog so I think we are missing this element of power balance of power and we don't  want to talk about the balance of power the West actually those who are on our side they are not  building balance of power I think deterrence Bay denial is not working and not we it's not going  to work in 10 years and we are directing the whole discussion into kind of you know discussion  abo

ut can we change the Russians or candy change us I mean but this is I think we should go  back to the basics of international affairs thank you very much that's not a question sure  if I understood um the question in the end is um Hayden yeah you described the question as  you understand it I think yes yeah I we were discussing what exactly the question was did  I understand you correctly that the question was that why we don't have Allied Forces the  cooperation of United States great Bridges E

tc and Soviet Union all together against  fascism I think it was more why don't we look for maybe unlikely allies exactly  different kinds of allies rather than just um sort of standing on our own sort of aren't we  good at being European Don't We Stand by our own values no exactly there are other other allies  that we could have yes exactly we have yeah but but currently you have these discussions in in  Ramstein there are representatives of 50 Nations discussing uh the support for the Ukraine

which  it is incredible that that forged by the US and then the Brits this Coalition this new Coalition  of the willing uh which is very hopeful because it um it it's it's of course about uh uh operational  stuff and and and arm uh support of arms Etc but it's also something uh they have something  in common in in in common values and um that which was part of by the war in in the Ukraine and  that's an hopeful thing and hopeful development in in uh hopeful International Development you  know an

d the others can then you know if you need North Korea for your uh for your own  benefit how low can you get you know okay got it on it for Ukraine and resistance  to Russia's aggression um but we shouldn't exaggerate it I mean  in the last U.N uh vote uh to condemn uh Russia's aggression which I think was in  February this year and the anniversary of the um full-scale invasion uh there were only  about four countries which actually voted against the resolution with Russia uh even China  abstain

ed but then China always abstains but um there were around 30 countries from what are  called the global South Latin America and uh Africa who abstained and whereas some countries in  Africa like Kenya grasped immediately on the 24th of February 2022 that this was an imperialist  Colonial a form of aggression there are other countries in Africa and South America who just  think well first of all this is not our war then where's Ukraine it's nothing to do with us and  others who have benefited fr

om economic in Russian investment in their countries or simply also  have a a sense of you know we've had enough U.S hegemony and they've listened to that narrative  and have sort of bought into it and thought why should we dance to the Americans tune so I'm  but I'm sure enormous efforts have been going into trying to explain to those countries leaders  uh why they've actually got it wrong and why they should come on board and support Ukraine because  it has implications for their territories a

s well should one of their neighbors decide they fancy  biting a chunk out of their territory does anybody have a comment on sanctions and on the please  yeah what uh I want to to answer to sharonis um or try to answer a little bit I think there  are two parts of the answer uh one part is due to the current aggression and the current regime and  there we have to be have to give very firm answer an answer which is for me at the moment not firm  enough so in this this point I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm uh

rather with with Robert and I'm I'm following  more the German discussion and it is uh really um annoying that every time when  uh the discussion is about a new sort of weapons to be delivered that we again talk  about as possible escalation yeah and deciding from for months deciding nothing there is no  strategy no no or or there is a strategy which I find uh insufficient this is one point to help Ukraine to win this war little but the  second point is what do we then with Russia and this is wh

at what I understood this panel is  about yeah what what what what can we do can we do anything that this permanent  threat that this country at the moment at least to reduce and I'm very  skeptical in that in the long term such a big country like Russia in such a close country  like Russia from here I I don't know how how long it is here to the Russian border  it's not so fast it was a Russian boy it's next door we're right next to calendar  yeah it is possible to really contain it if it is pos

sible to contain it then it will be  very very expensive and expensive in economic terms and expensive in societal terms so  I'm looking for possibilities uh of for for Prospect yeah how Russia can change and I'm I'm  very very modest in thinking what we can do to change it I have I've been working in Russia now  for about uh 25 years in uh promoting democracy so I know I know how less how uh how last week we  really can can influence from from the outside and that that brings me to to look  wha

t is inside Russian society that can bring change uh and and and and what makes  me very very careful optimistic in that is a part of Russian history but more the history  of other countries especially of my country yeah a few months ago I sat in Moscow in  the office of the levada center I I think you you all know them uh with levkov the former  director I was sitting in the upside and we were talking about the situation and he was Gravely  pessimistic and said this will change never and I said

how do you know and the situation  was very clear he said that as a Russian and I said that as a German he said this with his  Russian background I was my German background so let's see who will who who who who is who's right  in the end thank you I would love to give all of you the opportunity to say a few last words but  we are out of time and I know that because the clock is ticking and I know that we're over time  as well so please carry on the conversation over drinks with our esteemed pan

elists please  give them a round of applause [Applause] Robert can we move the chairs to the side can you let me huh can I have the first flight so I just want to say a few words I'm very  happy actually that we chose this title I'm very happy with the discussions  that we had today I didn't you know when we thought of this title I didn't  expect to get an answer at this meeting but I think that the discussion on the future  of Russia is an essential one because the future of Russia also determi

nes our  future right there is no other way so I was thinking when I was sitting here some 12  13 years ago I was asked by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs to give a presentation on Russia  to staff members Putin was about to come to the Netherlands and they needed to know a little bit  about Russia and so I made a presentation I found some of the flights in my computer and these are  some these are quotes about Russia most of them by Russians themselves Russia is the country of  facades th

e historical homeland of foreigners this one I like a lot by mikh again and we did a  lot not and what we didn't do was for the better nobody can live not as well as we can well this is an old one Russia knows two vices  idiots and Roads and then criteria says apart from idiots and Roads Russia knows another  voice idiots who tell you which road to take and then Napoleon who founded in practice  Russia knows no roads only directions our country is Rich only temporarily poor in absence of everyth

ing else foreigners usually  tell you that they particularly like the people here oh it's a nice one and then jugan of  the old communist our people is peaceful and not bad it spent 800 years at War and on the  battlefield and of course you know this is a whole you can joke about this but we know that at this  moment people are dying at the front in Ukraine this morning Russia had a massive bomb attack  again on Ukraine and again they are hitting infrastructure cities were without light water  w

as gone so we understand that again they will be doing exactly the same again this fall  and it will be again a very difficult winter so next year we will be holding our soccer  conference on this subject on May the 21st the hidden wounds of War trying to deal  with the issue of veterans in Ukraine which I think is going to be one of the biggest  problems that the country will have to face so in closing I would like to thank the speakers  and moderators for their presentations and discussions so

this is also becoming a kind  of tradition during the reception they can all pick up a t-shirt that we have made  with the local types of two organizations and with a text on the back right I would like  to thank the interpreters in the booth down there they were almost family we've been working with  them for 33 years they're from Kiev [Applause] so tomorrow they're on the bus again  for 22 hours heading back to Kiev I would like to thank the volunteers and the  organizers for everything I've

I've been told very directly that I should keep my nose  out of things and I've tried to do my best headsets please give them at the end in the  back and then we can move out for the reception and come back here uh for the concert so the  quest question is really whether you can leave this place because we will have to reorganize  everything for the concert thank you very much foreign