(upbeat music) (vocalist whistling and humming) - Welcome to the first "Saturday
Morning Physics" of 2024. (attendees cheering and applauding) Fans. I love it. I'm Physics professor Tim Chupp. I'm one of the organizers of
"Saturday Morning Physics," along with my colleague,
Professor Rachel Goldman, Carol Raybuck and Monika Wood, and the staff of the
Warren M. Smith Demo Lab. You know, I often need to
explain to the inquisitive people that Saturday Morning
Physics is not just physics. It's Satur
day morning astronomy,
Saturday morning biology, Saturday morning chemistry, those are the ABCs, technology, Saturday morning art inspired by science and vice versa. Saturday morning science policy, family-friendly science
extravaganzas and more. It's Saturday morning, not just physics, but I think we should keep the name. So we've got a great lineup for
you over the next few months with presentations on robotics,
materials engineering, the Van Loo graduate student lectures. And I would particul
arly
wanna highlight the visit in the March 23rd
"Saturday Morning Physics" by Dr. Laura Grego. She was a UM undergraduate
and now a policy expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists. And she will discuss what we can do to reduce the nuclear threat in her presentation which is entitled, "The Future That Oppenheimer Feared." "Saturday Morning Physics"
is made possible by you, your many generous contributions to "Saturday Morning Physics" and thank you so much for that. And for more about support
ing
"Saturday Morning Physics," please go to saturdaymorningphysics.org. We also are very grateful
to have the support of the Dr. Mary Lois Tiffany Endowment, the Hideko Tomozawa Family Endowment, the Van Loo Endowment, and the Pulikeshi Dayalu
Astrophysics Fund. Today's speaker is professor
of physics and astronomy and the chair of the physics
department, David Gerdes. David has been a professor
here at U of M since 1998 and we managed to steal
him away from Johns Hopkins where he was an assist
ant
professor on the faculty. And before that he was a
postdoc here at Michigan. So we knew him well. He grew up in Ohio and he attended Carleton
College as an undergrad and he received his PhD in 1992 from the University of Chicago. David started his research
in high energy physics working at Fermilab, in particular on the
discovery of the top quark, but now he's an astrophysicist. David and his students
have been searching for and discovering numerous exoplanets among other research topics. He
has many honors actually, but one that I wanna highlight is that his exceptional
teaching has been recognized as a University of Michigan
Arthur Thurnau Professor. So I wanna note just after this talk that we will have the question
and answer session as usual, those online or even those
here, can email us questions or you'll also be able,
those in the audience here will be able to ask them in person. Yeah, the email address is
here, physics@umich.edu. So we're so fortunate to have you here to t
ell us about the
upcoming solar eclipse and what an appropriate title
for Saturday morning Physics, "Totally awesome." Thanks, David.
- All right, thank you, Tim. (attendees applauding) Thank you and good morning, everybody, and good morning also
to our online audience. The path of this eclipse passes through my hometown of Hudson, Ohio, and I'm sending out my
greetings to my parents there and my old high school friends who I know are watching this online. A total solar eclipse is one
of the mos
t awe-inspiring, awesome events that you can experience. It starts innocently enough,
inconspicuously enough with just a tiny little nibble out of one limb of the
Sun, barely noticeable. Certainly there's no visible effect on the surroundings at this point. Just like a mouse took a
little bite out of the cookie. Time goes by, about 45 minutes later, things might look like this. And at about this point, you'll start to notice some
changes in the environment. The sky will be getting a
somewhat dee
per shade of blue colors might start to
look a little more flat. Shadows start to look more sharp. Another little while later, and it's getting quite a bit dimmer. Shadows are getting really crisp. You might see crescent-shaped
projections of the Sun onto the ground through
leaves or gaps in the trees. And you'll start to notice changes in the natural surroundings too, birds and animals and insects might be starting to change their behavior and you will feel a sense of anticipation among the peo
ple that you're with. Then finally, the last ray
of sunlight disappears, darkness will fall and you'll see the approach
of the Moon's shadow at about 1,000 miles an
hour and darkness will fall. (crowd cheering) Eclipse glasses coming off. (crowd cheering) (air horn honking) (Tim laughing) 360 degrees of twilight all around you. And that black hole in the sky where the Sun is supposed to be, just a stunning sight. The wind might be picking up, the temperature will drop, and then the diamond-ring
effect breaks through on the opposite limb of the Sun. The Sun bursts through some low valley on the edge of the Moon and the eclipses over very
quickly; daylight returns. The partial phases rewind themselves in reverse order over the
next hour and a half or so, and then the world returns to normal. But you will have experienced
something amazing. You'll be changed. With that magnificent memory of the fine details in the corona and those prominences around the limb and all the natural world kind
of pausing and taking note of what's
happening in the sky. It's a rare and amazing experience, but you will remember
it for your whole life along with other really special milestone events in your life like the birth of a child
or a wedding or a graduation or where you were when Michigan won the National Championship in football. (attendees laughing) And 51 days from now, we'll get the chance to
have that experience again or perhaps for the first time. Can we see a show of hands
in our audience
here, how many of you have never seen a total solar eclipse before? Lots of hands. How many have seen one
solar eclipse before? And for how many of you was that the 2017 one a few years back? So how many of you have seen
three or more total eclipses? How many of you have seen eight or more? (everyone laughing) About five? Anyone seen five? So at this point, I'm gonna sit down and let this guy give the talk. (everyone laughing) Because you probably know
more about eclipses than I do. But here's
the path that
the Moon's shadow will take across North America on April 8th, that will actually start
out over the Pacific Ocean and then make landfall in
Mexico and then move up, and that black dot there, let's see, that black dot there represents the point where totality will last the longest, about four and a half minutes, which is about two full minutes longer than the 2017 eclipse. Then it will pass up from the
Southwest across the Midwest through Northeast Ohio, and then on into New York
a
nd Canada and Maine. I'll be showing several maps like this and you can find them by just
Googling Espenak and Meeus or Five Millennium Canon
or something like that. And there's lots of tools there to build your own maps and references. An eclipse is possible because of an incredible
cosmic coincidence. The Moon is about 400
times smaller in diameter than the Sun. The Moon is also 400
times closer than the Sun, or the Sun is 400 times further away, which means that they have
the same apparent si
ze. That allows the Moon to just barely and exactly cover the disc
of the Sun completely, but not too completely. If things were different,
if the Moon were smaller, then we'd never have total eclipses, we'd have fancy partial eclipses. If the Moon were much bigger, we could have longer
lasting total eclipses, but we'd never get that full
view of the inner corona around the ring of the Sun. It would be more or less
obscured in different places. This is really unique in our solar system. There's
no other combination
of moon and planet that produces perfect eclipses like this. For all we know, it's
fairly unique in the galaxy. And if a intergalactic or interstellar tourism
industry ever springs up, it wouldn't surprise me if Earth is on some kind of a bucket
list for people to come and see this experience for themselves in this magnificent solar system. We sometimes picture eclipses with diagrams that show like the Sun here and, you know, the Moon here and a shadow going onto the Earth.
But that's actually not really
the scale of the situation. So if this basketball is the Earth, this tennis ball is roughly
the same scale as the Moon and the distance between
the Earth and the Moon on this scale is like this. And on this same scale, the Sun would be about 86 feet in diameter and it would be a mile
and a half over that way. We couldn't do that demo today. But you can see that in that scale we're kind of a small target. You know, imagine this long conical shadow extending this way
from the Moon. You know, the Earth is easy to miss, which is why eclipses
don't happen all the time. And we'll talk more about why
they don't happen all the time a few slides from now. So that picture looks like this and you see what I mean
about the scale and diagrams not necessarily being
physically representative. So that conical, dark shadow in which the Sun is completely
covered is called the umbra. And the path that that
umbra takes across the Earth is what defines the path of totality. O
utside of the umbra there is the penumbra and where the Sun is partially eclipsed, that's much larger than the umbral path, which is about 80 or 100 miles wide. The penumbra can be many hundreds or thousands of miles wide. Even those observers
see a partial eclipse. And what it actually looks like from space is something like this. That dark inner core
is where the umbra is. The people right there are
experiencing a total eclipse. Outside of that, you
see a partial eclipse. To see all the effect
s
that I have described, the corona, the darkness, darkness roughly equivalent
to what it's like about 45 minutes after sunset, dark enough to see stars
and planets in the sky. You must be in the umbral path, inside that narrow path of totality. Here's what that path will look like. Here's an animation that
I found on a website, it's gonna look like this
starting out over the Pacific. The path of totality is
that inner orange dot, goes like that. So you see these weird projection effects of proj
ecting a a
three-dimensional conical shadow onto a sphere. That's why the umbral path
is not always a round circle. So let's look a little closer at where the path will come near us. Ann Arbor will experience
a 98.5% partial eclipse. That's going to be extremely
dark, but not night. One and a half percent of the Sun's light is actually a lot of sunlight. You cannot look at that
safely with your eyes. You will not be able to see the corona, you will not be able to see
the profound changes in natu
re that occur during totality. And so I'd like to say that
98.5% partial is 0% total. (attendees speaking faintly) This is kind of like, you know, being in Ann Arbor for
this is kind of like being outside Michigan Stadium when you hear the crowds cheer, you know, you know something big just happened. You were close, but you weren't there and it was totally different for the people inside who saw it. So if you are able to do so, I strongly encourage
you to travel somewhere within that path of tot
ality. And as I show you later, this
is by far the best chance people in our part of the country
will have for many decades to see an eclipse this close. Now there's a great deal of
excitement about this eclipse in part because we have
experienced another total eclipse in this country fairly recently. And as you showed me at the beginning, many of you experienced
this 2017 eclipse firsthand. It was in fact the most
watched eclipse in history. About 154 million American
adults saw the eclipse, ei
ther the total or the partial phase. That's 88% of the whole country. 61 million more people viewed it online. About 20 million people
traveled to see it. It was the first coast-to-coast
eclipse in a century since I think the 1930s. And it was the first total eclipse visible in the U.S. in 38 years. So a lot of people were
really new to this thing. It also happened to be a beautiful day and most people along the
path actually got to see it. It was a big deal in terms of interest. And this is som
e search terms from Google. Google Trends is fascinating by the way. You can play around with it a lot. So it had much greater
interest than the Super Bowl. Now this was before the Super
Bowl involved Taylor Swift, but, you know... (attendees laughing) So it was just a kind
of normal Super Bowl. That happened to be a
big hurricane season. That was Hurricane Irma
and Hurricane Harvey and I think there was
one other one that fall so that more or less matched it and maybe the area under
the Christm
as curve is a little larger, but the peak was higher for the eclipse. So my point is that this, that the kind of online imprint of that total eclipse
was really comparable to major, major national and world events. It was not uniform. (David and attendees laughing) You might recognize a little trace of where people were searching the most for information about eclipses. That's because a lot of
people were traveling and... ♪ Once upon a time ♪ ♪ There was light in my life ♪
(attendees laughing) -
People were also streaming (laughs) this song in a sort of correlated way with where totality was happening. (attendees laughing) You're welcome for getting
that song stuck in your head. (attendees laughing) And afterwards there was
quite a bit of traffic. So one of my recommendations if you choose to travel
for the eclipse is, you know, take your time afterwards, have a picnic, chat with your friends. No need to rush home. It's gonna be pretty crowded, I think. Now eclipses are special in part
because they seem very rare. I mentioned 38 years between eclipses in the continental U.S. But how rare are they really? Here's a set of statistics for eclipses over a 5,000-year period. They can be predicted quite accurately. And you see that over a 5,000-year period there's nearly 12,000 eclipses
of some sort or another that's, you know, two or three per year. They roughly break down, you
know, more or less equally between partial eclipses;
eclipses that are total nowhere, annular eclipses; w
here the Moon does not
completely cover the Sun and so you see this,
so-called ring of fire and total eclipses. I'll talk about hybrid
eclipses in a second. And here is the paths that some of those eclipses will take over the next 20 or so years. So total eclipses themselves are not rare. You see that in 5,000 years,
there's 3,000 of them. So there's a total eclipse somewhere roughly every year or two. But because that umbral path, that path of totality
is only 80 miles wide, you generally have
to
travel to go see them. If you wait in one place for
a total eclipse to occur, you'll wait on average about 400 years between total solar eclipses. So you have to travel. But that's the other thing
that makes eclipses special, is that in contrast with many other marvelous natural events, their time and location can be predicted with great precision, years, decades in advance. So you have plenty of time to plan. In fact, I was looking to see when the earliest prediction
was when someone said, "
You know, it would be cool to be "in the Midwestern United
States on April 8th, 2024." And the earliest
prediction I could find was from a catalog of eclipses
that was published in 1887. There's the map, you can zoom in and see, you know, the writing is upside down, but if you flip it that's April 8th, 2024. The 2017 one is above it, right here. So, you know, I'm not
sure that the details were as exact as we we know them now, but that's absolutely the right idea. And in fact in literature of tha
t day, they talk about how you do it. We're making a lot of
detailed calculations and many abridgments may be made, which will readily occur
to the skillful computer, in the 1890s a computer was a person who did these calculations on paper. And here's how you did it on paper. You use this certain kind
of paper, it should be ruled so you don't, you know,
lose track of your figures. 85 lines of page, a total eclipse calculation
takes about three pages. The lunar ones are easier. Okay? So I snuck i
n a fourth kind of eclipse on that earlier chart; a hybrid eclipse. Those are the most rare kind of eclipse, but it happens when the distance between the Earth and the Moon is such that that umbral path makes
landfall, so to speak, over only a portion of the path. The Earth's surface is curved and so different parts are at different distances from the Moon and it is possible under the
exact right circumstances to get a total eclipse, say here and then a little further away
you see an annular ecl
ipse. So let's talk about how
to make a total eclipse. What does it take and why
don't we have one every month? So the first thing of course
you need is a new moon. I hope that's fairly obvious and we do get those every month. So clearly you need
something more than that. It also must occur when the Moon crosses, what we call, the ecliptic plane. The ecliptic plane is the
plane of the Earth's orbit. So if you like to think of it from an Earth-centric point of view, the ecliptic is the path that
the Sun takes across the sky over the course of a year. It's the path through the zodiac that the Sun will trace
over the course of a year. The orbits of the other planets lie more or less in the ecliptic plane, typically within a degree or two of it. But the Moon's orbit is
tilted a little bit more. It's tilted about five degrees with respect to the ecliptic plane. So if the Sun is this 86-foot
sphere a mile and a half away, the Moon is not orbiting
in this same plane. It's orbiting in this til
ted plane that's five degrees above. And so in a typical month, the new moon might occur up here and that long conical shadow hits the wall instead of the Earth or down here and it, you
know, hits the podium. So it has to be just in this plane as it's making its orbit and
crossing the ecliptic plane, right when the Moon is new, those points where the Moon's
orbit crosses the ecliptic are called nodes, the ascending
node or the descending node. And the new moon needs to occur at a node so that it
has a chance
of lining up with the Sun. So there's an illustration of that. And if the Moon's new phase is
happening, you know, up here, it just misses the Earth. Okay. And then finally there's one more thing, as pictures of annular eclipses show you the Moon's size is not
always perfectly big enough to cover the Sun. And that's because the Moon's orbit, besides being tilted with
respect to the ecliptic, is also not circular, it's elliptical. And that means it is closer
and further away from us
at different points in its orbit. And its apparent size is bigger or smaller at different points in its orbit. And our cosmic coincidence
is just close enough that that difference matters. That's the apparent size of the Moon or a relative comparison when it is at its furthest point called apogee and when it's at its closest
point called perigee. This will be the most
technical slide in my talk. And so if you're baffled
by what I'm about to show, relax, it'll get easier again. So what I've show
n here is a
graph of the phases of the Moon for the first couple
of months of this year. So the full moon is the open circles and the new moons are the dark circles and the in-between phases
are the other phases. And then what I've plotted here is the elevation of the Moon with respect to the ecliptic plane. So this ecliptic plane here at zero is where the Sun's path goes. And here's this plus and
minus five-degree tilt of the Moon's orbit. So we have conditions that
are ripe for an eclipse if t
hose dark circles; the new moons, happen inside that yellow band
where the Moon is at a node. So what's the period of the Moon's orbit and how can we use that to
help us understand eclipses? It turns out that's not
as simple of a question as you might think. There's different ways of talking about, of defining the period
of the Moon's orbit. I think most of us when asked what's the period of the Moon's orbit would think in terms of
the time between new moons or the time between full moons. And t
hat's what I've shown
here in the blue band. That's the time between new moons and that is something
called a synodic month and it's about 29 1/2 days. But there's other periods
in this graph too, and they are all important for eclipses. There's also the time between
crossings of the node, between when the Moon
is in the ecliptic plane and the next time it's
in the ecliptic plane and/or the next time it's passing
through the ecliptic plane in the same direction. And that is called a draconic mon
th. I love these antiquated,
astronomical terms and that's quite a bit different actually. It's 27.2 days. The difference is roughly because, you know, in the
month between new moons, the Earth has moved 1/12th
of the way around the Sun. And so the angle of illumination from the sunlight is different, but the Moon's orbit remains kind of fixed in orientation and space. So you can see that
when we get a new moon, at a node like here, that's when we can get an eclipse. But is it a total eclipse? T
hat's the third period that is important. So this is the same time graph, but now on the vertical axis, I have plotted the apparent size in a funny unit called arc seconds. 1,800 arc seconds is about half a degree. To picture half a degree
hold your pinky fingernail out at arm's length, and that's about one degree. So, you know, the apparent
size of the Moon or the Sun is about, you know, half the
size of your pinky nail. So here is the apparent size of the Moon fluctuating
from month to month.
That's the blue curve. The yellow curve is the
apparent size of the Sun and it's actually not constant. And that's because the Earth's
orbit isn't circular either. Our orbit is slightly eccentric
as we go around the Sun and you see that the Sun is actually at its largest apparent
size here in January. We're closest to the Sun in January. We don't have winter because
we're far from the Sun. We have winter because our
northern hemisphere is tipped away from the Sun in January. But we're actually c
losest to the Sun than we are in July. So we have an opportunity
to have a total eclipse when the Moon's apparent size
is above the yellow curve, when the Moon is bigger than the Sun. And lo and behold, that is also what's
happening here in April. In fact, the Moon is about
as big as it ever gets. When the full moon occurs at the peak, we sometimes call it a supermoon. When the Moon is that extra large size, this is kind of a super new moon in April. And that period from perigee to perigee, from
peak to peak of the
apparent size is yet another way of thinking about the period of the Moon. And that's something called
an anomalistic month. And that's 27.5 days, a couple of hours different
from the draconic month. So when we have all three of these things, a new moon at a node, when the Moon's apparent
size is bigger than the Sun, we can get a total eclipse. And that's what's happening here in April. There's... - Why is the maximum size of
the Moon changing in that? - Oh, that's a really
good question. The question is, "Why is the maximum size
of the Moon changing?" And I thought someone might ask me that. And what I think the answer to that is, is that I have done this
computation from Ann Arbor. And so Ann Arbor is at different
distances from the Moon, you know, depending on the
Earth rotation and and so on at the moment of... So it's not always
equally big every month. I think if I had made this plot from the center of mass
of the Earth-Moon system, it would be the same. Ther
e was actually a
warmup act for this eclipse that some of you may have seen. There was an annular eclipse
that was also visible from the continental
U.S. this past October. It wasn't... It was a fairly low-grade
partial eclipse from here. And I think the weather was bad that day. And so you probably
wouldn't have noticed it unless, you know, you knew, it was cloudy anyway, but it was visible. So here we have a new moon, I think my green line's a little off, but we have a new moon about
here cros
sing the plane. That's all good. But the Moon was further away and wasn't able to cover the solar disk that eclipse passed through
the Southwestern U.S. I went with a group of
students to Albuquerque. And this is a composite image of what we saw there from Albuquerque. And by the way, I took these
photos with this rig over here, just a small telephoto lens
with a little camera on it and the solar filter. You must put a solar filter
over your optics on the big end, not the little end. (everyone l
aughing) And also remember to
take the lens cap off. (attendees laughing) This picture was taken
during the ring of fire phase of the annular eclipse. And so you see everybody
wearing their glasses and you see like rays from the Sun, the Sun, in this case, was about 93% obscured. So a little more sunlight than we will have in
Ann Arbor on April 8th. But you see there's
still a lot of daylight and you cannot observe this
eclipse without eye protection. One of the cool things you
will see during a
n eclipse, at least if you're someplace where there are leaves on April 8th, which is probably not here, is these... The gaps in the leaves act
like little pinhole cameras and they project that image
of the Sun onto the ground. And that's what we saw. (attendees speaking faintly) I'll mention lunar
eclipses for completeness. They're often paired with a solar eclipse roughly two weeks apart because if the Moon is near a node, you know, for a total solar eclipse, probably half an orbit away, it wa
s also near, you know,
a node for the full moon. So if the full moon is crossing that node, you can get a lunar eclipse. They're often paired with
solar eclipses in proximity. And I believe there's
a partial lunar eclipse in March of this year. Yeah, there it is, on March 25th. So we have those three periods: The synodic, draconian, and anomalistic months. And there are all these
kind of random numbers that aren't quite the same. But if you have a condition
where you get a total eclipse, when mi
ght those same conditions repeat? So if you go 223 synodic months, that's 6,585.32 days, 242 draconic months are nearly the same. And 239 anomalistic months are also just about the same amount of time. That is 18 years, 11 days and 8 hours. And the eight hours is important. That's about a third of a day. But what this is saying is
that if you have an a condition that produces a solar eclipse, then those same conditions or very nearly the same conditions will recur 18 years, 11
days, and 8 hours
later, you'll get sort of a copy of that eclipse on intervals of that time. This is called a saros cycle. And this eclipse in April belongs to something called saros 139. So here is our April 8th eclipse, but if you rewind 18
years and whatever I said, 11 days and 8 hours, you'll get these earlier eclipses, which look really similar, but that eight-hour
difference is 1/3 of a day. And so you see that the eclipses happen, you know, eight hours or before, you know, shifted eight time zones before
or after the one in question. And in the future there will
be saros twins of this eclipse in 2042 over the South Pacific and 2060 over Africa and Asia. And then on the third round, we'll kind of be back to where we started and we'll get another copy of this eclipse visible from the
Southeastern U.S. in 2078. So make your plans. (attendees laughing) Airbnb prices are gonna
be exorbitant by 2077, so make your reservations early. So this particular cycle started in 1501 with a partial eclipse
visib
le near the North Pole and will end in 2763 in Antarctica. The cycle consists of
16 partial; 43 total. And then for some reason, and don't ask me why, I don't know, zero annular and this eclipse cycle seems to be abundantly
overproducing hybrid eclipses. I don't know why, (laughs) but that's the lineage
of our April eclipse. So they begin near the poles, they move north or south depending, typically produce several
dozens of eclipses, and the whole thing
lasts 12 or 1,500 years. So let's go back
now to April of 2024 and talk about how that will go. This eclipse actually passes through even more population centers than the 2017 one did. It passes through some
good-sized cities in Mexico. It will also pass in or near
San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, Indianapolis, Dayton, Ohio, Rochester, New York, Buffalo, New York. Something like 32 million people live in the path of totality. Now the question is, where should you go? If you have a choice, where should you go? We all know what the
weather c
an be like here in early April. So what does the science say? What does the weather say? This is an analysis of
historical cloud cover data for April 8th done by a
meteorologist named Jay Anderson. So what you can see here is that, so blue means clearer and red means higher
fraction of cloudy days. So, you know, the smart
money is in Mexico. (attendees speaking faintly) Go to Durango, go to Mazatlan. That's really where it's gold. Generally speaking, the fraction of cloud cover increases as you
move to the northwest. So for example, here in
like south of Toledo, which is the closest point to us, or in the Cleveland area, it's about 60, 70% chance of clouds. There's actually, and this is more clear if
I show you the next plot. So this is a plot of
the cloudiness fraction along the center line. And certain cities have been labeled here. So, you know, Mexico, only a 20 or 30% chance of clouds. When you cross into Texas, you're getting to be more like
about a 50-50 proposition. Indiana doe
sn't look so great. But then something interesting happens as the path approaches, comes up through Western Ohio and then sort of approaches Lake Erie around Cleveland and Berea, there's this dip. And people who know more about
the weather than I do say that that's actually, kind of, sort of a reverse lake effect. At this time of year,
the lake is very cold, it's colder than the air, and that somehow acts
to suppress cloud cover. So if you're looking
to make a shorter trip within a few hours dri
ve of here, but don't wait till the
morning of the eclipse to do it because of that traffic map, then I would recommend going to Cleveland. There's actually this little dip here that makes it about as good as Texas. Don't go to Quebec, you know, there's another dip here. And then this is like Nova
Scotia and stuff, okay? So, you know, it's dicey it's gonna be different
than that August, 2017 one. And if you have the flexibility, I would be looking at
cloud cover predictions that start to get ver
y good
within a few days of the event. And if you have the freedom
to control your whereabouts and make a strategic decision
about where to drive, have that flexibility
if you're able to do it. I'm gonna be in Texas. That's where I'm placing my bet. I talked a little bit at the beginning about the experience of
the eclipse on eclipse day. Now if you're here in Ann Arbor, if you're unable to travel
out of this general area, as I said, you will
see a 0% total eclipse. But if you travel a little wa
ys from here, these times are roughly similar within, you know, 5 or 10 minutes. So the partial phase will start a little before 2:00 in the afternoon. It will be this maximum
eclipse of about 98.5%, a little after 3:00, and by 4:30 it's done. These times came from clicking
on an interactive map. The link is here and
I've also put a QR code, if you don't wanna write down the link, you can just scan that QR code, bring up an interactive Google map of the whole eclipse path, and then play around a
nd
click in different places to see what and where
the eclipse will be like. Safety reminders. You must wear a pair of eclipse glasses when looking at the Sun at any
time except during totality. These are widely available online. They look something like this. They're just a piece of really dark film. And you can hardly see anything through eclipse glasses except the Sun. I can very dimly see the overhead lights. The floodlights in the back are
tiny, little glowing things, but you really can't s
ee anything except the Sun with these glasses. The Sun is really bright. You must wear those to be safe. You also, as I have done here, must cover the objective
end of your optics. Don't put the eclipse glasses
like behind the eyepiece. You might burn up your optics and you're concentrating maybe more light than the glasses are built to take. So block the light at the front. So you might see this diamond-ring effect. This is really one of the most unforgettable moments of an eclipse. It lasts on
ly a brief second or so before you have to, you
know, look away at the end or, you know, when you can
start to put your eyes up there at the beginning of the eclipse. The lunar limb is uneven
in that lowest point, where the Sun can first break through is where you see the diamond ring. As the diamond ring disappears
you might see Baily's beads, these last little bits of light. You might be able to see prominences, solar flares along the solar limb. It's perfectly safe to look
at all this through
binoculars once you're in the total phase. It is also helpful to
have some kind of a timer to keep track of when
totality will start and end. I'm not a commercial
recommendation service, but I like an app called
"Solar Eclipse Timer" that is a... You know, it's an app for your phone. It is aware of your position and if you're in the path of totality, you can set it up to give audio cues of when totality will start and give you a countdown
and things like that. "Solar Eclipse Timer." The view in
the sky, the wide view is really spectacular. Like I said, it's about as dark as 45 minutes or so after sunset. And that is plenty dark enough to see brighter stars and planets. On April 8th, there will be a really nice
conjunction of Saturn and Mars. They'll be very close together over here. Saturn is a little closer and these numbers next to them
are their visual magnitude. So Saturn and Mars are
of equal brightness. Mars is the red one. Venus will be extremely prominent. In fact, you should
be able to see, if you know where to look, you should be able to see Venus maybe as early as a half
an hour before totality if you have good eyes. And then Jupiter will be over here. Mercury is somewhere over here, but it's gonna be like fifth magnitude. I don't think you'll be able
to see it with your eyes, but you'll see it with binoculars
if you know where to look. (attendees laughing)
What you may experience; all kinds of things, including some, you
know, not positive words. And we kind of c
huckle about it. And I think the people who
are attending an eclipse talk are maybe more likely to
experience these positive motions. But, you know, historically
disorientation and distress have been more associated with eclipses than feelings of joy and awe. I don't know of any
primitive or ancient culture that has taken eclipses
as omens of years of peace and prosperity and good fortune. (attendees laughing) Usually when an eclipse happens, it means the crops are gonna die and the king is gonn
a... You know, the kingdom will fall. And, you know, people... Since bad things are always happening, the correlation between
bad things and eclipses is really what sticks in people's minds. But even, you know, in contemporary times, even if you know what's happening, and a common remark you hear from people who have experienced a total eclipse is, "Can you imagine what it would be like "to not know why this is happening, "to not know what this is about?" The sight of a black hole in the sky whe
re the Sun is supposed to be, is so profoundly disconnected
from our everyday experience that it can be, you know, upsetting at a kind of a primitive level. And here's a quote from Annie Dillard writing
about the 1979 eclipse. "More moving photos than
those of the Sun's corona "can appear in magazines. "But I pray you'll never see anything "more awful in the sky." Eclipses have been depicted
historically in artwork. Here is St. Benedict having a vision during the diamond-ring effect. Here is som
e sort of a drawing
of Chinese astronomers, I hope he's got his solar filter on, (attendees laughing) observing an eclipse while
others are sort of prostrate and in prayer. Eclipses, for the most part, nowadays are just kind
of a treat for the eyes. But they have historically
also been associated with some extremely important
scientific measurements. And the most important of
those took place in 1919. Einstein had a new theory of
gravity, general relativity, that was really not clear
if it appli
ed to reality. It did correctly predict
the anomalous behavior of Mercury's orbit. But no one had yet tested one of its other critical predictions, which is that light is bent
by gravitational fields. And that meant that if you could observe
starlight passing near the Sun, and notice that the stars were shifted because the light had been bent, what we call gravitational lensing, then that would be an
important confirmation of this critical prediction
of Einstein's theory. The only opportunity yo
u have to do that is during a solar eclipse. And so in 1919 when England
and Germany were at war, an English expedition led
by Sir Arthur Eddington traveled to off the coast
of Africa and to Brazil to observe the solar eclipse and test the predictions
of this German scientist. There's one of their setups. Here's a closeup of one of
their photographic plates. The star was supposed to
be here, it was over there. And the shift was exactly the
amount predicted by Einstein. There is a way you can pre
dict
this in Newtonian gravity and it predicts the shift half as big. So this led to one of
my favorite headlines in the New York Times, "Men of Science More or Less Agog." (attendees laughing) Some of them were more
agog, others less agog. (attendees laughing) There's also a story... This was actually the event that turned Einstein from a scientist who was well known in
the physics community to a global celebrity. And what caused the celebrity was not only this the strange prediction of "Lights
All Askew in the Heavens," but the fact that his
theory had a reputation of being so very difficult to understand. In fact, it's still an
advanced undergraduate topic in our physics courses
or a graduate course. But in 1919, this was said to be something that only a very few people
in the world could understand. There's actually a story
that Arthur Eddington, the British astronomer
who led this expedition to observe the total eclipse was asked if it was true that general
relativity was a theory
that only three people understood. And Eddington paused and said, "Well, I'm trying to think
who the third one would be." (everyone laughing) So back to the eclipse day experience. So this is... And if you saw my talk a few
years ago, you've seen this, this is a video shot by a drone at our site in Oregon in 2017. So you've seen that, I showed you that animation of the path of the Moon's shadow across the Earth. It's traveling at something
like 1,000 miles an hour. It's gonna be actually a
litt
le faster than that by the time it gets to
Michigan and April 8th. So here's the drone looking to the west in the moments approaching totality. I've sped this up by a factor of a few. So you see that, there it gets dark, twilight all around, and then here comes the... Oh, now we're looking east, back west, and here comes that
shadow across the land, you can almost see it moving. It gets really dark and now it's over. I'll say a few words about
photographing totality, if that's something you choo
se to do. This is a photograph I took with a setup very similar to this in 2017. Actually it's an HDR stack
of a group of photographs. My first piece of advice actually is that if this is your first eclipse, don't try very hard to photograph it. I somewhat regret at past eclipses spending a little too much time messing around with equipment and not paying attention to
what was going on around me. It's only 4 minutes and 20 seconds or so outta your whole life. So make the most of it. There will b
e many, many
excellent photos of this eclipse. But your memories, your
experiences are not replaceable. They belong to you. And I suggest, you
know, focusing on those. Another reason is that
actually photographing eclipses in really good detail is quite difficult. That's because the corona
is extremely high contrast. It's very bright near the rim of the Sun and it kind of trails off
into these delicate tendrils that blend into the sky. And there's a real gradient from in to out that typically ca
n't be
captured in one exposure. I'll show you an example
of that in a second. Your eye, however, is actually
much better than any camera at detecting gradations of contrast. And finally, the sights and
sounds all around you are really an important part of what
the experience feels like. You're not gonna listen to me, you're gonna take pictures anyway. (attendees laughing) Fine. So having said all that, almost anything you do
will result in something, an iPhone photo will show
you, you know, som
ething, that picture I showed earlier of a bunch of people standing in darkness with the eclipse in the sky, that was an iPhone picture. The best part of an eclipse video is actually often the sound, people react in really
great spontaneous ways to that moment when the Sun disappears. Again, once the total phase is underway, you can take off your glasses. A good way to know when to
take off your eclipse glasses is when you look up at the Sun
and you can't see anything, then you know it's safe. Y
ou can observe and photograph totality without special filters. I do recommend that you again
use some kind of a timer so that you are prepared
for when totality ends and you can protect your
eyes and your optics as soon as that diamond ring brightens to the point where you can't
look at the Sun anymore. So here's what I mean about that high contrast in the corona. This is a set of exposures ranging from very short to over a second. And you see that at each exposure setting, there's a sort of di
fferent
regime of the corona that is shown in good detail, the rest is too dark or it's too bright. So that image I showed
you earlier is a HDR stack of a group of these images. Okay, what if you miss the 2024 eclipse? What if it's cloudy? What if you just hate to
travel and you wanna stay put? I'm gonna wait in Ann Arbor
for the next total eclipse. I have good news. There's gonna be another one that's gonna be visible from here. I also have bad news; it's in 2099. (everyone laughing) (attendees
speaking faintly) That's 75 years from now. But I think some of our
younger members of the audience might be around for that. So remember when you're an old man, you know, that this
professor told you once that this thing was gonna happen. So this is September 14th, 2099. And look where it goes. (attendees speaking faintly) It's actually cutting it really close. (everyone laughing) Don't go north of the Huron River, go south of the Huron River. In fact, probably, you know, go a little further s
outh altogether because when you're at the very edge of the band of totality, the totality doesn't last very long. You want to be as close to
that center line as you can. The details of this path, the details of these boundaries actually depend quite sensitively on things we don't know yet, like how the length of
the day will vary slightly between now and 2099, you know,
leap seconds and and so on. So I advise you to check back for updated predictions around 2096 or so and we'll have a better id
ea of which side of the Huron
River you should be on. September 14th, 2099 is a Monday. (attendees laughing) I have a great idea for a
"Saturday Morning Physics" talk on September 12th, 2099. And I hope Tim will, you know, be on that. Yeah. Once you're on this committee, Tim, you can't get off. It's just like, you're it. Okay, so as many of you know, once you've seen one
eclipse, you want more. So if you love the one in 2017 and you're excited about this one, if you see this one and
you're reall
y excited to go see a next one, when are the next opportunities? Well, like I said, there's a total eclipse
somewhere in the world once every year or two. After April's eclipse, the next available opportunity
is in August, 2026. You can either go off the coast of Iceland or go kind of, you know, to Spain or off the coast of the UK. These lines here indicate twilight. There'll be an evening eclipse here, it'll be a a more of a... The Sun will be higher up here. In 2027, this will be cool, in 2027
, there's this eclipse
going across Northern Africa and through Egypt, good opportunity to
include some sightseeing in your eclipse travels. And then in 2028 there will be an eclipse that crosses Australia and
also hits Christmas Island. (attendees speaking faintly) None of these will be as
easy as driving to Toledo. (everyone laughing) So try it. And the next eclipse that will be like the 2017
one and like this one, which is visible more
or less coast to coast across the continental U.S., won't
happen for another 21 years in August of 2045. And this will be a really special one because totality will last
almost six minutes for that one. The longest a total
eclipse can possibly last I think is something like seven minutes. So this is really quite unique. That's a long way away, but it's not that far away and I think that's something that many of us can
hope to look forward to. Okay, so that's all, I'll leave some time for questions. Thank you very much. I'm wishing you clear skies and
a wonderful experience on April 8th. (attendees applauding) And did you want to
pause for a minute, Tim, or just go right to questions? - Gotta get set up, but it's like, we'll start the question
and answer in just a minute. There will be microphones in both aisles. So we request that if you have a question that you make your way to the aisle. We also have online
questions and we expect more. (attendees speaking faintly) David, I'm gonna ask a
question that came online. "Where did the Moon come
from "and is it, in some sense, "responsible for this coincidence
and tourist destination "that the Earth-Moon system should be?" - So the question is where
did the Moon come from? So we think that the Moon probably formed in the solar system's very early days when there was still a lot
of debris floating around from the planetesimal disk. And this is the same planetesimal disk that was causing larger
objects to, you know, accrete and form into planets. Once you have made a big
massive blob of s
tuff, it becomes sort of a gravitational
magnet for more stuff. But a planet like the
Earth was also quite hot being in close to the Sun, still much more of it was
molten than is molten today. And it is believed that the Moon arose from some kind of a giant impact
that caused the proto-Earth to split into a larger and a smaller blob. But it wasn't such a violent impact that that remnant was thrown off entirely, it was captured into orbit. The fact that the size is what it is, I think is pure coi
ncidence. Lots of other planets have moons formed through similar mechanisms
and we just got lucky. - So.
- Question here. - Oh, is it on? So ideally I'd like to be able to view the solar eclipse this year while flying an airplane. And so I was wondering
if that would be possible to see the eclipse from
3,000 feet in the air? - That's a great question. I'll give you two answers to that. The first is that yes, it's possible, let me go back a few slides to this. (attendees laughing) Oh yeah, you'l
l like this. That's one of the Donovan
Edwards touchdowns. - (faintly speaking) or something. - So the Sun will be about
50 degrees above the horizon. - Yeah, so just one.
- So you want to make sure that you have a good view, you know, like not just sideways, but up. The Moon's shadow is traveling
at about 1,000 miles per hour or maybe more than that. So unless you're in a
really special plane, you probably won't be able to prolong the duration
of totality very much. But you will succeed
in doin
g that a little. I wanna say we have an
expert on flying planes along the path of solar
eclipses in the room here. Josh Cassada has joined us and he got to experience the 2017 eclipse by flying, what was it,
an F-14 along the path? - T-38.
- A T-38. How long did that eclipse last for you? - Probably an extra 15 seconds. (attendees laughing) - Well, I think that's
worth it at that point, so. - Yeah. (laughs) So yeah, if that extra 15 seconds
means a lot to you, try to hitch a ride with Josh. - So
we were doing about
600 knots over the ground and we were in a two ship,
we had four people total in the formation and - of the three,
- Mic. - I was in the lead so the other three
- Mic - had their glasses on. And we found out when we
got back that those glasses that you'll be wearing in April are really rated for sea
level and not 30,000 feet. - Oh. (laughs) Okay. - Thank you.
- Even through the glass? Yeah.
- Yeah, I don't think there's a filter there. - Yeah.
(Josh speaking faintly) Okay. Q
uestion over here. Go ahead. - Good morning, doctor. We are expecting an increase-
- Use the mic. - It's-
- Turn it on. - You gotta turn it on.
- Case, please. (attendee speaking faintly) - Okay, can you hear me now? - Yep. - Okay. So we are expecting more
solar activity this year. What is going to show up in the eclipse? - So the question is about solar activity and as you pointed out, we're actually near a peak
of the solar cycle now. So if you are able to look at... This is why there's been a
lot of activity with northern lights lately. In fact, even earlier this week I think there was a chance of seeing northern lights from Michigan. So periods of peak solar
activity are associated with things like northern lights, solar flares, more sunspots, and from the Eclipsophile's point of view, more activity in the
corona, bigger streamers, maybe more, you know,
features in the corona than a sort of uniform thing and more of those prominences
and flares around the rim. You can also look in
the days immediately
preceding the eclipse, there are sometimes
forecasts that you can find of what the corona may look like and what the solar
activity profile could be. So this is gonna be a
good eclipse for that too. Thanks for pointing that out. - Not to miss it. - Right. - How about a question from online? - Okay. - And I don't completely
understand this question, you probably do, which is how did you choose the factors in the saros cycle calculations? - Oh, so I showed a slide
about the sa
ros cycle, which... Where is that? Here we are. So I said that... Sorry. Anyway. There. How did I choose those factors? So those factors were chosen to find the least common
multiple of those three periods. So those are the various integers I need to multiply those periods by
to get nearly the same number. Okay? And you see it, they're not exactly the same. And that's why those eclipse
siblings I showed you aren't carbon copies of
the original eclipse. They're not completely commensurate. There
are other ways of
finding other multiples that also add up to, that combine to give you,
you know, the same period. But the saros cycle is
the most immediate one. And it's actually, you know, 18 years and 11 days is
kind of a human timescale. And so this was worked out
by ancient astronomers. People actually built
mechanisms with gears, you know, to work out the appearance
of the next eclipse in a saros cycle. If you saw the Indiana
Jones movie this summer, the Antikythera mechanism was actually
an eclipse predictor
based on the saros cycle. It's not a portal back in time, but it does predict eclipses. (attendees laughing) - Question over here, David, on the left. - Oh, I'm sorry.
- On your left. Sorry. - Then you're next. - You showed those Chinese
observers using a telescope and presumably not protecting their eyes. Can you tell us what part of the solar spectrum is damaging to eyes and what kinds of damage can occur? - The question is "What part of the solar spectrum
is damaging to
the eyes?" Really the answer is all of it, because it's not so much, you know, it's not just the particular wavelength, it's the intensity. It's just how much light
is getting through. And so we think of ultraviolet light as being the most damaging kind of light from the point of view
of sunburn and so on. But at those intensities,
it's all dangerous. So the kind of damage
that it does, you know, your eye is a magnifying glass. And if you have ever started a fire by putting a magnifying glass
wi
th sunlight, you know, onto a piece of paper or some
leaves or something like that, that's what's happening to your retina when you focus unfiltered
sunlight onto your eyes, it will do permanent damage. So don't do that. (chuckles) Question. - Okay. This is a question about
photographing the eclipse. During the last partial eclipse, I got my spotting telescope,
got a large whiteboard and projected the image
on that large whiteboard. You know, it was a perfect image that I took photographs of
tha
t image on the whiteboard. I got some fantastic pictures, the sunspots, everything there. Would that technique work for
doing the eclipse this time? - So the question is about
photographing a partial eclipse, if I understood you correctly, by using a small telescope
and just projecting the image, you know, from the
eyepiece straight onto a... Yes, that will work. I caution you that when you
focus that intense sunlight through your optical path,
which has multiple lenses and sometimes there's glu
e and adhesives and things in there holding it in place, or glass has a, you know,
coefficient of thermal expansion. It can possibly break when a
piece of it gets really hot. So you're placing your optics
at some risk by doing that. But what I would suggest doing, if you want to try a technique like that, is actually put a little
filter over your lens that's just got a tiny little hole in it. 'Cause that'll let
plenty of light through, but it is less likely
to damage your optics. Yeah, you can m
ake a really low rent, even if you don't have eclipse glasses, you can make a really
low-rent eclipse viewer by just taking a, like a
three-by-five index card and poking a hole in it with a pin and projecting it onto
another piece of paper. And you'll see those nice, like, rings like I showed you in the annular eclipse. You'll see those nice pinhole
images of the Sun's disk. - How about using that technique just for, during the total eclipse? - During the total eclipse,
- Will I get all the imag
es- - I don't think that will work because there's not enough light. So during the total eclipse, during the total eclipse, there's no reason to
avoid just looking at it and photographing it. Yeah. - There's actually about 200
people online as well, David, so it's
- All right. Hello - very popular topic. And one question that we've gotten from more than one online viewer is to try and explain again
why the differences in the length of totality
from eclipse to eclipse? - So I think the easiest wa
y to account for differences in the
length of totality has to do with this graph here. So roughly speaking, the larger the apparent size of the Moon relative to the apparent size of the Sun, the longer the eclipse will last. So a situation like this one right here, where the Moon's size is just
barely the same as the Sun's. Of course in this particular case, there's not an eclipse
because it's not at a node. But if conditions were
otherwise ripe for an eclipse, something like this would correspo
nd to an extremely short-lived total eclipse or maybe a really big annular eclipse. Whereas in the eclipse
that we will have in April, you can see that the Moon's
size is actually pretty big, which is why this eclipse in April lasts four and a half minutes. It mostly has to do with the
apparent size of the Moon. - On the left. - So this is actually a
question that I'm asking on behalf of a far
distant-future descendant of mine who, at a time when
climate change was fixed, there's no war, all nuc
lear
weapons have been eliminated and people are living forever. - I'm really glad to hear
that's what it's like. - I was happy to hear that too. But her question was where on Earth could she live permanently to have the maximum percent of her time be spent in totality? And I assume this might depend on latitude (everyone laughing)
and not longitude. - Yeah, what a great question. (attendees laughing) They can't just teleport
wherever they want by then? So I mentioned that eclipses happen on ave
rage about every 400 years. I think it's actually
380 years or something for a given place on Earth. But that probability is
actually not uniform. And as the questionnaire alluded, there's a latitude dependence
to the frequency of eclipses and eclipses are somewhat more
frequent near the equator. So I think anywhere on the equator, because I think there's
not a longitude dependence. So anywhere on the equator
will maximize your chance of experiencing the most totality. Yeah. We could probably an
swer
that question explicitly with the help of that 5,000 year canon. There are probably particular places... There is some place on
Earth that has more totality than any place else in
the next 3,000 years. And I don't know where that is, but I that that's something
one could look up. (attendees speaking faintly) Statistically, be on the equator - Question for the person who went on the flights for the eclipse, you said the glasses were
not rated for 2,000 feet. I was wondering what effects-
- 3
0,000 feet, - 30,000 feet. I was wondering what effects the people who are flying
with you experienced. (Josh speaking indistinctly) - It's on.
- It's on. - I'm pretty sure that
they weren't looking prior to us being in total eclipse. So in that sense, I don't think any damage
was actually done, but we thought we were being extra safe by having them with us. And then when we came back, we started having some conversations. I actually don't even know
how much assumption is put into the atmospheri
c
effects into those glasses because you can imagine, I
think we used the same glasses in Colorado that we would,
you know, here in Ann Arbor. So I'm imagining the effect
was not significant in any way and we weren't dumb enough
to be looking before... 'Cause we had a pretty good run and it was coming from behind us, so it would've been really hard to look before we were in totality anyway. So I think we're all good and nobody's actually
said anything, right? - In general at 30,000 feet, there's
only about 1/3 as much atmosphere, which means there is three times more, there's three times less
absorption of light. So all that UV light, you know, just like when you climb a mountain, you need to put on lots of sunscreen, so. - Just an online question
and I really like, it's actually more than one, but I really, really like it. "So if you could give some
examples of the kind of science "that will be done in April, et cetera, "astronomy, biology, atmospheric
chemistry, et cetera." - Actuall
y I'm glad you mentioned that because I am part of a NASA-funded
citizen-science project called the Citizen DEP Project, which stands for Dynamic
Eclipse Broadcast Project, run by my friend Matt Penn in Tucson. And this is a DEB telescope. So we will be deploying
a bunch of citizen teams, a lot of student-led teams
and community organizations with telescopes like this
along the path of totality, but also outside the path to
monitor the Sun and white light and also assemble a big movie. You know,
the eclipse
only lasts four minutes in any one place, but the whole thing lasts
about an hour and a half. And if you can piece all those
movies of totality together, you have a hour-and-a-half-long movie of what's going on in the inner corona. We did something very similar in 2017 and were able to actually observe some coronal mass ejections
and how they evolved and, you know, evolved in this complicated magnetic environment of the Sun. You can only do that kind of
science during a total eclips
e. A coronagraph isn't good enough to do it. So it's the one time we really have access to directly what's
going on with the corona in invisible light. So that's an astronomy example. I'm sure there are many others, but that's the one I'm most familiar with. - Another online question, this I think is from one
of our younger listeners. "Where can I find out more information "about the 2099 eclipse?" (everyone laughing) - Well, it won't be from my "Saturday
Morning Physics" talk in 2099, I'll tell
you that much. So I will put back up the QR code and I will find this. Here. Here. So this QR code will take
you actually to this website, which is a Google map
of the upcoming eclipse. But if you look at the first
part of this website address, which is this X-U-B-A.free.fr it has links to interactive data about all the upcoming eclipses in the next many hundred years. And you can find that 2099 one and start playing with maps, start plotting your observing site. And I think that's the
main inf
ormation you want at this point about that eclipse. For information about... Because that will tell you
about the track and the duration and the timing and so on. For information about eclipses in general, if you want to learn more
about how to observe them, about what we have learned
from them and so on, I would recommend two pages. NASA has some really nice eclipse pages and there's also a site called
greatamericaneclipse.com that has a wealth of resources
focused on this eclipse, but much of
it applies
to eclipses in general, and you can use that to think forward to future eclipses too. - It's a amazing
coincidence, this majestic, but as I understand it, the Moon's moving away from planet Earth. At what point will we no
longer have this phenomena? - Great question. The Moon's orbit is, as
the questioner mentioned, moving very slowly away from Earth. I wanna say off the top of my head, it is getting more distant by something like five or
10 centimeters per year. (attendees speaking i
ndistinctly) That means eventually the
Moon will never be big enough to cover the Sun. And how eventually is eventually, I should have the answer to that. It's a really long time. It is of order 100 million years. It's less than a billion,
it's more than 10 million. I wanna say it's a of
order 100 million years. So plenty of time for us to capitalize on the interstellar tourism trade. - Another online question about eclipses that occur, I guess near sunset or sunrise, are they different in any w
ay or appear different? - That's a great question. I think, I've never seen one of those myself. They do occur near morning or
evening with some regularity and including this one
that's happening in 2026. It'll be an evening eclipse off the coast of the UK and Spain. The Sun is low on the horizon, which means that you have a
really cool view of a landscape in conjunction with the eclipse. It also means there is a greater chance that you might encounter clouds. You're looking through more
of the
Earth's atmosphere, depending on how high above the horizon the eclipse takes place, you might see more, you know, interesting colors and so
on during the partial phase, the twilight might look
a little different, but other than that you will observe the same other kinds of effects that you see in other total eclipses. It will get as dark, nature will respond to that, animals will go into their nighttime mode even though it's not
quite night, et cetera. That would be a really cool thing. And tha
t's on my list to do at some point. - I observed the 2017 eclipse in Tennessee and coming up to the eclipse,
about an hour before, it was cloudy and everyone was bummed out that, you know, we weren't
gonna see the eclipse clearly, but as the eclipse proceeded, the clouds just kind of faded away. The grayness just disappeared and we had this beautiful blue sky and it was just a spectacular observation. How does the eclipse affect
the metrology at the time? How does that affect the heat? - Yeah, t
hat's a great question. Actually I'd like you to come to my site because it sounds like you're good luck. (David and attendees laughing) So the question is about how the eclipse affects the weather. One of the effects I didn't mention, and I'm glad you brought it up, is with the temperature change that comes from the encroaching darkness and the the Moon's shadow, you also often see that the wind picks up because wind responds to these, you know, convective currents are induced
by the temperatur
e changes in this local region that's traveling. And so that can produce weather patterns that can act on the clouds. I can't guarantee it
will move clouds away, it might move clouds in, but there may be local effects like that because of winds and changes in the winds brought about by these temperature changes over a swath that's 100 miles wide. Yeah. - Thank you. - If I wanted to replicate
Eddington's experiment from 1919, do you have any suggestions
for any stellar candidates? - That's a grea
t question. There is a bright star that will be in the field of view of these cameras. We have been talking in our group about what's in the field
of view besides the Sun and how can we use it to align our images. There is a fourth or fifth magnitude star, I can look up the name for you and let you know offline,
Case, but it's... There's a star that will be less than half a degree away. Now how much will that star
move from its apparent position and how do you know? That's a more complicated que
stion. I mean, this is not a big effect. This is a small fraction of an arc second. So I would suspect that you would need, well, you saw the kinds of telescopes they were using in 1919. It wasn't some little thing like this because I think what you
need to do, you know, with just one star, you don't really know if it moved or not. So what you need to see is
a few stars in the field and notice that the ones closer to the Sun have moved by more than the ones, you know, a little further out. At so
me point there's
no measurable effect. And so you need a telescope big enough to capture several stars at
several different distances. The best candidate is this
fourth or fifth magnitude star in Pisces, I think. But it's not a simple
experiment to replicate. Yeah. - All right. I have a quick one. Is it ever possible to
see the northern lights or southern lights during an eclipse? - Oh wow. (attendee laughing) Wouldn't that be amazing- - Alaska in 2033 is what I'm thinking. - Yeah. I don't see w
hy not. I mean, northern lights are
caused by solar activity, charged particles that have
been ejected from the Sun, that arrive at the Earth,
hit our magnetic field, start spiralling around
and giving off light and exciting fluorescence. The northern lights
happen during daytime too. We just can't see it. This is a, you know, continuous phenomenon when it's happening. So I guess I don't see why you
couldn't have northern lights together with a solar eclipse at a sufficiently, you know,
northern
or southern latitude. - All right. Thanks. New bucket list item. - Wow. Yeah, wouldn't that be incredible? (attendees speaking faintly) Okay. - All right. (attendees speaking faintly) - Any more questions from the audience? Okay, well, I think we
should thank David again. (attendees applauding) "Totally Awesome," you all agree. And we look forward to seeing you at the next "Saturday Morning Physics," which is on March 9th. Have a great weekend, everyone. (attendees speaking faintly)
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