♪♪ >> John Gooden: The UFC
returns to Fight Island Saturday, September 26th for
another epic championship showdown as two
unbeaten middleweights finally go head to head
at UFC 253. Having successfully
defended his belt against Yoel Romero
at UFC 248, New Zealand's Israel Adesanya
looks to add to his legacy as
middleweight champion and eliminate a
Brazilian rising star. >> I'll [bleep] you up. I'll see you soon, boy. >> Gooden: Paulo Costa's
impressive run in the UFC has seen him take out
former
champions and contenders alike with his vicious punching
power. >> Joe: Oh, that's it. >> Jon Anik: Paulo Costa does it
again! >> Gooden: And the Eraser has
his eyes firmly set on gold and the opportunity to dethrone the Last
Stylebender. Only one man will
leave Fight Island with their unbeaten
record intact. Someone's 0 has got to go. It's Adesanya vs Costa for the middleweight
championship of the world. ♪♪ Hello, and welcome to UFC
Inside the Octagon. John Gooden side by side with
Dan Hardy an
d for today's episode,
we're gonna be talking about that middleweight
title fight at UFC 253 on UFC Fight Island between Israel Adesanya and
Paulo Costa. Dan, talk about a fun one to
research from all of the trash talking
that's been going on, to of course, the technical
aspects of this fight. I think it's amazing to see that
Israel Adesanya keeps calling out these big
guys, and he's got another one with
Paulo Costa. >> Well, you know, he likes
these challenges, doesn't he. I mean, obviously, he
sees Paulo
Costa as the other undefeated star in
the division, and someone that could
potentially take that gold, as well as all of the hype
around Adesanya. I mean, these kind of fights are
the ones that are tailor-made
for Adesanya because he's got someone that's
gonna come at him, someone aggressive,
someone that wants to close the octagon
down very quickly. And he's gonna give Adesanya the
stimulus that he needs for his counter
striking. You know, it's much more
difficult for Adesanya when
he's facing someone like
Yoel Romero, who doesn't really open up. But with Paulo Costa, what we've
seen is someone who's just naturally
very aggressive from the get-go. And someone that's gonna try and
take the fight, as well as the belt, from
Adesanya. >> Yeah, and a
wonderful followup to that Romero fight,
because I think Adesanya was left a little
frustrated with this one. Fans were left wanting. But we're gonna be
reminded very quickly about the explosiveness of how mixed martial arts
can be
at the very upper end of the
middleweight division. Well, let's pull up the facts
and the stats then, Dan. There's a lot to digest
with these as well. We see the champion
and the challenger. Physically, we see
a taller champion. He's also a massive reach
advantage as well. Are they big factors for this? >> Hardy: I think they are. I think they are. Especially when you consider how Israel Adesanya fights. You know, more range that he's
got on his shots, the better. Especially if we look back
at
previous fights and previous knockouts. He's an expert at getting his
head out of the way, and then punishing people when they've overcommitted. And one thing you can be sure
with Paulo Costa, is if he misses one
of those punches, he's going to be
overcommitted, because he throws
everything into them. So for Adesanya, with that reach and
height difference, if he can use himself as bait, and then force Paulo
Costa to miss, even when he's out of Paulo
Costa's punching range, he's gonna be able to
crack
him clean with some shots. 8" is a massive reach advantage
for Adesanya. Then, at the same time, if Costa
closes him down up against the fence,
gives him 6" to work, you know, Paulo Costa's
72" reach is looking pretty good
at that point. >> Yeah. I want to just-- not skip
over the credentials of Adesanya, but he's
obviously on a terrific run, lots of experience. But did anything surprise you about those striking statistics
from Paulo Costa, because they are
quite brilliant. >> They are abs
olutely. And you gotta think the reason
why his stats are so high is because
of the way he fights. You know, it's difficult to have a high striking rate when you
play most of the game out in the center
of the octagon, because you're gonna miss
a lot of those shots. The benefit of Paulo Costa
being aggressive is that he just take the space
away from his opponent. As we've seen in these
previous fights, he just takes a punch well. He takes a punch because of
his muscularity around his neck
and his
shoulders. He's able to absorb that power as he's still moving forward. So, that gives him
the confidence to close people down and to throw these barrages
of shots at them. And what we're counting
is we're counting shots landed but they could be
landing on anything, including the guard. Paulo Costa doesn't really care. You know, he's not really
bothered where shots landing, aside
from the fact that he's constantly keeping that work
rate on his opponent. You know, when
someone's backed up and wi
ll start looking
head and body and those kind of things but there are still a lot of
shots that land on the guard. And that's why his
striking rate is so high. But then when you hit as
hard as Paulo Costa, even shots on the guard are
gonna do some damage. >> Yeah, well they're
very different strikers, and I'm sure you're going to unpick all of that, Dan. So, let's get straight
into the analysis then. And let's start with the
challenger who, we assume, is gonna come forward
very, very quickly. Bu
t what is going to be his
first choice weapon? >> Well, coming forward
is a safe assumption. I would be very surprised
if Paulo Costa did something uncharacteristic
and he doesn't try and take away as
much of the octagon from Adesanya as possible. Especially with the trash
talking that's going on. You know, he wants
to make a big impact in this first round. So, if, I think, Paulo Costa
moving forward and backing Adesanya up,
I've got to think the safest route to attack
for him to start with are
gonna be the body kicks. So, there's a consistency
with Costa's style. If he's fighting a southpaw, he throws the power back
leg to the open side. If he's fighting an
orthodox fighter, he steps through
with the lead leg to still work that midsection. He's always kicking
the side of the body. So, you can kind of
guess which side he's gonna be attacking from based on the stance
of his opponent. And Paulo Costa, given the fact that he's so aggressive, and
he's got such a high work-rate, if he sees
you get hurt
with one of those body shots-- I mean, Garreth McLellan, it was the beginning
of the end for him. With Bamgbose, he caught him with that body shot
and recognized. He pointed at him right after
the kick had landed because he knew the damage. And then you see
the whole posture of your opponent change and that's where Costa starts
crashing forward with his punches. But that's why I feel
like the body kicks are gonna be the start
of the attack for Costa because even if he's landed
on th
e arms of Adesanya, it's much safer than swinging at his head
and missing. You know, 40% of his
shots land to the body. So, investing in that early,
attacking the arms, attacking the midsection
of Adesanya, it negates some of the slipping and the head movement
that Adesanya's got because he's a more
stationary target, the midsection. But it also, you
know, it'll also put more water in the basement
for the later rounds. Slow Adesanya down a little bit. >> Gooden: Let's flip it
over to the champio
n. I think he's expecting a
different kind of fighter than Romero, a fighter that's
gonna engage with him. So, how does he respond to this
kind of onslaught from Costa. >> Well, I mean,
the Romero fight was a very frustrating
one for him and it's not a frustration, I think, he
has to face in this one. I expect him to fight very
similar to the way that he did against Gastelum
and Whittaker, but you know, he's got
a different kind of animal in front of him. When we'e seen-- when we've
seen Adesany
a face strikers that kinda get
a little bit spooked by his ability to move. I mean, I go back to
the Tavares fight. I think about the
Marvin Vettori fight. You know, both of those guys, they invested the first,
sort of, 60 seconds in the fight trying to hit
him in the head. And they were unsuccessful. So then they go into
this panic mode where they clinch him
and hold him. There are two ways
that this plays out. If someone's throwing strikes
and missing, they're either gonna try
and clinch you o
r they're gonna stop
throwing those strikes because they feel like
they're overexposed. In which case, that's
where Adesanya needs to throw a few
strikes of his own. And he's got very
good long range, like defensive striking, like he'll pick at the body. He'll work the legs so well like
he did against Yoel Romero. And he'll gradually break
you down at the distance. But, the main focus of this, he's trying to provoke you. That's what he's trying to do
with these shots. He's trying to irritate you
and provoke you because he wants Paulo Costa to come crashing forward. He wants Paulo Costa to keep that high striking rate up
because, from what we've seen in
his fights, that's finite. That will run out. And that's when Adesanya starts
to take over technically. In those earlygoings,
especially if Paulo Costa starts to swing and miss, you're gonna get an Adesanya
that will pick at him from a distance and try
and coax him forward so he can then punish him
with counter strikes. It's a lot about
being smart and not overextending
himself though. Because Adesanya doesn't wanna
get caught up in the mix. The punch that he took
from Gastelum in the first round
swelled up his lip. He can't take that punch
from Paulo Costa because he might not get up. And that's gotta be a genuine
concern for him. So, keeping himself safe
in that first round has gotta be a key. And I think those long-range
picking techniques with his kicks
and with his long jab is gonna be the first line
of attack for Adesanya
. >> Such a high-level striker. It's such an absolute beautiful
thing to watch him at work and Costa's
gonna be facing this, and I guess one
of the main ways that you shut down
something so pretty is to make things pretty ugly
sometimes. He's gonna come forward
really hard. But what makes him so good when he does shut
that space down, Dan, and use short
range striking? >> Well, as you've said,
you know, with his high strike rate,
the reason that the strike rate is so high
is because he closes ra
nge down and he does make the space
very claustrophobic. So, if you think Costa's
started the fight, he's managed to back
Adesanya up a little bit to the fence, but he's also
using those body kicks to slam him in the guard
and the midsection and force Adesanya into
a small wedge up against the fence. Then what you'll see
is Paulo Costa start falling in with
his power shots. And, I mean, I'll be
honest, the left hook that dropped Yoel Romero
in the first round is the best punch he's
thrown in his
career. It was the tightest,
cleanest punch. Clipped him right on the chin. And that is-- that was a very
short range punch. Whenever we've seen him
back people up against the fence, what
you'll see is he stands-- kinda squares up a little bit. And he gets these nice
dig into one side. And the truth is
it's quite basic because he's going,
you know, right-left, right-left, right-left
because he's rocking. Because he's driving his power
from one punch to the next. But because he's got
them square
d up against the fence, there's
two ways it can go. Adesanya's not gonna
level change. So he's gonna go one of
two ways off the fence, which means he's got to go into a left or a right hook
as he's moving. And again because Costa's
varying his targets from the head to the body, you can't keep
covered all the time. This is a drawback to
being a taller fighter. I mean, obviously, Adesanya's
got longer arms, but he's got a longer body. So there's more real
estate for him to try and protect from tho
se targets
that Costa's working. And, like I said, once he's
got you closed down and he's got you up
against the fence, you're a captive audience. You've got to deal
with those punches because there's
nowhere else to go. You either have to clinch him
to slow him down, or use some kind of trickery
to get yourself off the fence, which obviously, I mean,
Adesanya's got. But there's always a risk when his shoulders touch
that fence. >> Before we go to break, Dan, there's a little footnote that I wan
t to draw attention
to for the viewers. It's something that I hadn't
really fully appreciated. When you look at
Paulo Costa's record, no straight knockouts. >> No.
>> Everything's a TKO. And I'm sure that Adesanya will
be aware of that. Do you think that changes
the way he respects or doesn't respect
the power of Costa? >> Yeah, I think so.
I think so. This perception,
especially from the first two fights that
Paulo Costa had in the UFC, this perception that he's
a murderous puncher, and the tru
th is he's not. I mean, he's got
a high strike rate because he throws a barrage
of punches at people. And everyone that's gone
down in a Costa fight, they've gone down conscious. They've gone down
covering their heads. They've gone down
holding their body. He's not putting
people to sleep. There's no-- you know
what I mean? Like, Israel Adesanya
is not gonna look at Paulo Costa and think,
"He's gonna knock me dead with one punch so I can't
get touched at all." It's the volume of Paulo Costa whic
h overwhelms people and
generally, when they go down, I mean, they all drop
on the floor, but they're conscious
when they fall. Which is gonna give
Adesanya a moment. He's gonna be able to ride
some of these shots a bit better than
these guys anyway from his kickboxing record. But there's certainly a--
certainly a perception that Paulo Costa's far more
lethal than he actually is when he starts
throwing his hands. And I think Adesanya is gonna
be realistic about that risk. >> Right, okay.
Interes
ting notes. We have got plenty more analysis
still to come your way. We'll be back after this. ♪♪ [theme music] >> Welcome back to
UFC Inside the Octagon where we're talking about
that main event for UFC 253 between the Last Stylebender
and the Eraser. What we learned in part one was that Costa's likely gonna start
this ferociously. He's gonna try and back up
Adesanya. Use big body kicks,
and in response, the champ is gonna try
to keep him at range. Maybe use some leg kicks like he did against Y
oel Romero. But Costa's all about trying
to close that space and break down his opponents. He loves those body
shots as well. But Dan, let's turn it onto
the champ once again. An elite striker. And what impresses me about him
is his patience. He knows he'll get the finish
but it really doesn't matter when he gets
the fight wrapped up. >> And that is--
that is the signal of an elite striker as well
because he only needs-- you know, he only needs a
couple of clean shots to get this fight finished,
and he also knows
that he can utilize his opponent's aggression
against them. You know, this is
what we've seen in previous fights
of Adesanya's. Because he knows that people
have to close him down because usually he has
the reach advantage. He's fighting guys that
have got to move into his range and land
something significant. So they tend to do it at speed. I mean, the best
example really is the Whittaker fight because
Whittaker was coming in to defend his belt against
this new superstar in t
he division that
was, you know, effectively stealing
all of his thunder. And Whittaker came in
that with some animosity. He came in to try
and take his head off. And what we saw from
the first round against Adesanya is his ability to
just give that space, read what was coming
to him, and allow it to just slip past him
without really countering. Because then he's
frustrating Whittaker because Whittaker's
swinging and missing. And at the end
of the first round, what we saw is
Adesanya step in and
allow Whittaker to
throw that big overhand and then just slip out
of the way and punish him cleanly for it
at the end of the first round. And then as the second
round starts, we saw much the same. It's allowing his
opponents to work. It's making sure he's safe, and then once they've
overcommitted their bodyweight, he's punishing them. And with someone like
Paulo Costa, when he comes crashing forward
with all of that energy and momentum behind him, if he runs onto an Adesanya
strike, it's gonna--
it's gonna further increase
the power of that punch. And as we discussed at the end
of the first segment, Paulo Costa's not a
murderous puncher. He's a ferocious puncher
with a high volume, and it's the volume that
overwhelms people. It breaks them down. They crumble under
that pressure. The benefit here for Adesanya is that he knows there's
stuff coming at him. He knows he can
provoke Paulo Costa. He knows he can get
him to throw. The more he misses,
the more he's gonna be aggressive and overc
ommit, and the easier that will be for Israel Adesanya
to catch him. And also as we discussed,
because he's not one-punch knockouts
for Paulo Costa, it's the accumulation,
there's an opportunity for Israel Adesanya to
make a few mistakes in this one, to maybe get
clipped a couple of times. Because, i mean, if
you look at his stats, like, in the round and a half that he faced Whittaker,
he took 32 punches. He took 32 punches to measure and find the knockout shot. Against Yoel Romero, all
that tim
e he was facing Yoel Romero, five rounds,
he took 40 shots. He didn't find the
finishing shot against Yoel Romero and he
also didn't get finished. He didn't get punished for
taking too many risks. Whereas if you go back to the Paulo Costa/Yoel Romero
fight, took 125 punches from Yoel
Romero over 3 rounds. That's the difference. It was a much more
entertaining fight on the Paulo Costa,
Yoel Romero side, but that's because they were
both taking punches and landing punches. With Adesanya, he was ab
le
to hold Romero off with that bit of witchcraft
that he's got, the feinting and reading. So, Yoel Romero really didn't
wanna commit to anything, because he knew he was gonna
run on to something. I don't know whether Paulo Costa has that second mindset of,
"Well, let me hold back and wait to see what Adesanya
is gonna do." Most likely is, he's not. Most likely is he's gonna
come forward and try to knock Adesanya out. In which case, Adesanya
can pick his poisons, choose the shots that he
might h
ave to take to keep himself in range
and find his own finish. >> I think the statement
"A game of inches" comes down to it being sort of
millimetric precision for the Stylebender and he's gonna need that
against Costa. Despite what you're
saying, you know, with that one-punch
knockout power. If he gets you on a roll,
it could be an early night. But, let's focus on Costa for
a second, and another thing that's impressed me
is his evolution, Dan. Because when he first
burst onto the scene at The Ul
timate Fighter,
this guy was a grappler. How and why is this
changed so dramatically? >> Hardy: I think there are
a few reasons for this. I think the first thing is,
you know, when he was on Ultimate
Fighter: Brazil, he learned a very hard lesson
in that first round where he jumped on
someone's back. He had the body
triangle sunk in. He was trying to get
that finish as hard as he could for
that first round, and then he had
nothing left to give. And the problem is now, because he's not
had many f
ights, the standard is getting
much better every time. The opportunities for him to try
his ground and pound, for him to reassure himself
in his conditioning, they're running out. He's now at a stage where he
realizes he's got-- he's got a gas tank and he can spend that gas tank
however he wants. He can spend half of it
grappling, to hold the person in position
to hit them. Or he can improve his boxing
where he can utilize that energy system much better. And what we're seeing
is the evolution is
his striking skillset. We're seeing him with
powerful body kicks that then set up his
punching barrage. And it negates that need
to be wrestling hard. It negates that need to
be tiring yourself out, really not getting anywhere other than controlling
your opponent. If I'm Paulo Costa
and I know I've got a certain amount of energy
to give in a fight, I'm going to balance
that the best I can. And now he's stepping up to
fight over five rounds. He has to take into account there's an additional
10 m
inutes to work. I would imagine that he's
still got memories of that Ultimate Fighter:
Brazil fight where he gassed himself
in the first round. If he lost that fight
by split decision, what's Israel Adesanya
gonna do to him with four rounds to work? I think the other thing we
have to bear in mind is Israel Adesanya's
takedown defense is getting much, much better. You know, as much as
Paulo Costa's evolving and improving as he goes
from one fight to the next, we're seeing Israel Adesanya
do the s
ame thing. Obviously, Adesanya's a smart
dude who's coming into mixed martial arts
as a kickboxer. So, he knows what
his skillset is, and he also knows that
the majority of people looking at him with
that kickboxing-- I mean, 75 fights on his
kickboxing record. People know what he wants
to do in the fight. So, when he faces a Marvin
Vettori or a Brad Tavares or someone like that,
they spend the first 60 seconds swinging
at him and missing. They naturally switch over
to a grappling game. And from
Adesanya's perspective, he knows at some point
he's gonna have to defend takedowns to
keep the fight in the strongest area
of his game. I think what we saw when
he faced Brunson is, you know, a clear development
in his takedown defense, which then allowed him to
add striking onto the end. So, Brunson came out,
as he does in his fights, with a wild couple of minutes. He tried to hit Adesanya,
didn't work. Clinched him, round him
up against the fence, and Adesanya then cruising
because he now kno
ws Brunson's into his second
half of his game. And Adesanya then
does a great job of getting off the fence
and getting clear. As Brunson then
pursues him though, you can see Brunson's
gonna level change. So, Adesanya making
his UFC debut seeing a level change
like this responds to the level change with
takedown defense. The Adesanya that
faced Brunson, he switched over to
striking instead. Now that, to me, shows
a clear confidence that his takedown defense
is good enough. If he needs to revert
b
ack to scrambling and getting back to
his feet, he can. Decided to throw a knee
in there instead, and he read the angle at which Brunson's head was
coming down perfectly. Just clipped him
right on the chin. And he had to actually
adjust the knee as it was coming in because Brunson was covering
distance so quickly. As the knee comes up,
you can see Adesanya pull his hip back,
so he's making sure he's catching Brunson
right on the chin as he's moving in. I mean, that, to me,
shows a striker that's
confident in his
takedown defense. That now he knows
that if he needs to get back to his feet,
he can. >> Gooden: Yeah. Yeah.
It's exciting stuff. And to consider that both
of these fighters are still evolving and at the
very top of their game is just a wonderful thing
for us fans to be excited about. I've got some other
questions for you, Dan, because of course, this is--
this is an amazing fight, amazing
buildup as well. The mental warfare, now
I might be off here, but I reckon this might be
one of the biggest rivalries involving
a Brazilian fighter since we saw Jose Also
against Conor McGregor. Now, of course,
anyone supporting Costa doesn't want to see
the same sort of outcome. Do you think it's even a
something that might be in the narrative there
that Costa is so, kind of, angry with Adesanya. He said he wants to hurt him, wants to make him cry, etc. That he comes out flying
and he gets caught with something super early? >> It's certainly playing into
Adesanya's game, as it did
for Conor's game
against Aldo. You know, to prime somebody
before the fight is just like hitting him with
low kicks and teeps to the midsection in the first
and second rounds. He's priming him
to rush forward. And what Adesanya
doesn't want to do is have to go and find Paulo Costa
in the octagon. That's what he faced
against Yoel Romero. That's why it was so slow, is because Adesanya's
a counter striker. And you can force people
to attack you with a multitude of
different ways. One of them is, i
n the fight,
use your techniques. But the other one is priming him
psychologically before the fight starts. We've seen Costa octagon side,
you know, yelling at him after fights. Costa's already animated. He's already been waiting
a long time for this fight as well. Because, you know,
when Adesanya was fighting Yoel Romero, Paulo Costa knew that should've
been him in here, had he not been out for
surgeries and stuff. So, there is gonna be a--
there is gonna be an aggression in Paulo Costa
that I
think is gonna play into
Adesanya's hands. And again, we talked
about the fact that Paulo Costa, he's
high-volume puncher. He overwhelms people. He's not a murderous puncher. So, this is not--
for Adesanya, this is not a Russian roulette
kinda circumstance. It's not one punch
from Paulo Costa from any angle and you're done. Like, he's not got
Ngannou kind of power. He's gotta land a multitude
of strikes on Adesanya. Which means Adesanya
can allow him to move forward a little bit. It makes more s
ense for him,
as Adesanya being a counter striker,
makes more sense to have Paulo Costa
aggressively move forward. So you first think about
your own defense, and then you think
about the counters. But they're already moving
on to of those counters because of the aggression. >> Oh, Dan, what a fight
this is gonna be. Both of these individuals
have gifted us fans with such incredible
performances in the octagon so far. Then you add in the ill will they have towards one another. This is gonna be sp
ecial. I know it will be. Thank you as always, Dan,
for your insights. Thank you to everyone at home
for checking us out. Keep the conversation going using the hashtags
#insidetheoctagon. Tweet @UFCEurope. And we will be back for the next
pay-per-view. Until then, thanks for watching. ♪♪
Comments
Dan Hardy has analyzed this fight for the sixth time at this point lmao
Mario Yamazaki should be there for this one.
As a fan, Costa's style makes me appreciate the FIGHT. Izzy's style makes me appreciate the ART.
Someone's O gotta go Groin shot and eye poke has entered the chat
Someone's "0" has got to go. Bruce Buffer : MAJORITY DRAW.
Paulo Costa beats up guys like the they owe him money.😂😂😂😂😂
Please don’t try to STOP THE FIGHT this time Dan Hardy.
UFC 250: Hardy vs Dean. Inside the Octagon: Paulo Costa Breakdown
I've never watched one of these before, this one I'll watch
I literally watched Hardy talk about this fight for an hour yesterday and now here I am at it again
Paulo is most definitely a power puncher. He doesn't have any one-punch knockouts because all his strikes are telegraphed and his opponent is always expecting them. It's the shots you don't expect that KO you.
I've always felt that Costa's power was the hardest you can hit someone without actually putting them to sleep... Jesus...
You can tell Hardy has izzy winning this fight
Dan Hardy fight analysis: "Adesanya will win" simple.
Dan is so good at analyzing every aspect of both fighters. It's amazing to listen to. Dan knows what the "fight" he is talking about. 🥊
really appreciate these break down videos, having a professional’s insight is great
I think a Dan Hardy and Joe Rogan booth would be a nice balance. John there as well of course.
Was waiting for this one
These breakdowns are always so good. So much insight, great stuff guys.
Dan, I’m glad you’re still working for the UFC. I think your knowledge and commentary are excellent.