Unlocking the Power of Second Half Goals in Football Betting

welcome back there are many markets within the context of second half goals that you can exploit that you can be thinking about these are the results from the second half goals filter that we created yesterday on the video I'll put a link uh up on the video so that you can go and check that out and um I think what I might do is just track it see what games come up and just keep everybody in the loop um and maybe we can do maybe a filter a month or something like that you know and we try and get

the best out of it and see what opportunities come up because whilst this is second half goals it doesn't necessarily mean that's the only thing that you can actually try and predict uh the number of second half goals although we did yesterday um and these are the results from yesterday we'll take a look at them because there was so much value in the game with these ones now we will start with the only game that really didn't offer much value and uh that's you know that's fine that's going to ha

ppen this is very very important to get into people's heads um not every bet will win there are betting systems where you only need 29% of games to win you know you you name it there are systems out there um especially with value betting you can download the data from the downloads page you can test it in in Excel or whatever feed it to chat GPT that's what people in the Discord have been doing uh some great conversations going on there that's what I love to see that's why the API was launched a

s well um so that people can just get their hands on this data and create something um and now more than ever in society it is easier to create it is easier than ever to build something that will bring you value within your hobby within something you're passionate about whether it's football whether it's data whether it is both of those things together whether it is investing um up to you but the possibilities are endless now jumping back to this list we can uh take a look at the peac ODS as I s

ay this game from Albania um over 2.5 goals obviously peaking at 15 because of the the state of the game over 1.5 goals um peaking at 15 as well and that's what I mentioned yesterday today with the context of a second half goals filter there are many markets that you could bet on this first half draw for instance this first half unders there is second half overs there is half with most goals and then when it comes to in play there is over 1.5 goals which I do really want to focus on in this vide

o because I think it's potentially um a very good strategy based on this one day and you should never base anything off one day but we will take this example because we literally create this filter together um off the cuff in yesterday's video so I think it makes sense to just continue uh the Journey of the filter as you would on the site if you were using it I mean these videos essentially should be more tutorials than me just spoon feeding you or something I'm not a tipster um and there's a lo

t of comments where people just just show us the BET slip and my answer is always the same I have explained every single thing that I'm thinking about a particular game in the video I transcribed the video upload the subtitles for everyone as well so it can be converted essentially into any language and I don't want to really really just be somebody that provides bet slips you can get that Elsewhere on YouTube for sure and it was those videos that I saw that made me start making these prediction

slash betting analysis data analysis whatever you want to call it in the first place um it's the reason I sort of started because I I I came across one and it was just like somebody reeling off 30 games this one is 1.13 this one is 1.3 and it's like what where's the value in that to be honest um every day it was like 400 odds or something and that's just not I don't think a good way to think about uh betting to be honest you should be sensible you should understand probability rule number one r

ule number one um and have bet tracking and have a system set up for for every sort of Market that you're trying to test um someone in the Discord a while ago said it's good to think about markets as niches everyone has a niche in life right there are Niche businesses that you can set up um and it's the same in this everyone has different markets that they profit out of um people move around from Market to Market um and especially with value betting the way you can test on those markets um you c

an find profit in these in these in these different markets for sure um and this is another one of those second half goals it opens a possibility um to quite a few different opportunities um which which means you can sort of fall back when you get a short list of games you're not just thinking about one thing and I think that is really key um it's it's beneficial um when you're looking at a game how many ways can I win is essentially what you're asking so the first game from Italy here 13th agai

nst third it was and we can see over 1.5 goals peaking at 1.91 um over 2.5 goals which did land as well 3.75 and um we can go into it and just check what the probability model was for those outcomes so before the game 1.5 goals was at 1.48 implied odds um and we can take a look at what it was before the game as well um so BTS didn't land that was over evens before the game anyway so um The Bookies were not expecting it so over 1.5 goals was 1.5 so actually that was a value bet slightly so to get

it at 1.91 is very nice you can see over 2.5 goals as well 3.75 um in this video we will um look at some games that are upcoming of course for today but I just wanted to explain this because I think this video and I'm trying to get into more videos like this is where it could just stand alone in you know um a year's time somebody can watch it in six months and it still makes sense uh that is the ideal thing with any video so the aim going forward is to try and make every video valuable not just

on the day that it's released um but also in six months in a year uh because if it isn't then what's the point really um I don't want the videos to have a shelf life of one day uh so Ethiopia the game that we covered uh this one went exactly how we uh thought it would nil nil at halim and uh if you do watch that video from yesterday fast forward to this bit um I I'll put a little bit of it up now actually this home team is winless they've lost 63% of games the away team has lost just 133% of ga

mes and something else that sticks out is that the lack of goals uh from both teams there hasn't been more than three goals since the 25th of October they've won no games by halftime at home they have not scored a first half goal second half they've scored three they're just terrible to be honest the away team are unbeaten at halim away from home but they too you know they've scored just six and if you look at the overall form 0.67 compared to 1.12 so half with most goals if you can get it um th

at would be fantastic if not maybe you can set an alert um and if this game does start slow you could maybe then be looking at over 0.5 goals over 1.5 goals or maybe the away win to be honest um the probability model uh I would expect yeah 1.44 implied odds and uh what are the odds for an actual home uh sorry an away Victory here 1.92 Peak uh it's quite a jump isn't it from 1.5 with topico uh so definitely value there if you can get on at that price um so that one yeah half with most goals you c

ould get that in a couple of places couldn't you over evens and um fantastic fantastic win that one that was also one that I suggested you know could have over 1.5 goals potentially in the second half and a way win those are the things that we mentioned and just look at the peac ODS 2.63 for the awaya team they were 1.55 given all the data it was very clear that the the first half might be KGI um based on the filter that we created yesterday um so some they just tick all boxes really they do and

and you can you can extract more value from a game you could have won Maybe three four times on this game so three of the next four games were nil nil at half time and if we look at the over 1.5 goals we can see peaks of 650 850 250 and 850 again that is Sensational this is a sensational day and maybe it's just potl that have uh you know made the filter yesterday and it's performed like this and we can we can review it in this way um but we will track it I mean that is what this is all about th

ere is uh nobody that will just give you money right essentially that is not going to happen um so if anybody is trying to sell that to you that they know exactly what's going to happen in the world then they are lying to you that's also one of the first things you've got to get in your head along with uh probability you've got to put something in to get something out unfortunately for for you know for some people because they just don't want to do it um another thing I would recommend is is bac

k testing paper trading um it's like you know there's no shame in let's say you run this filter for a month in just adding the games to bet tracking on OD alerts or in an Excel of your own whatever you want to do automated settlement on OD alert so if you add it to a bank roll that is set up for that it will when the game finishes it will just recalculate everything for you send you an alert as well when the BET settles and the result of the alert um so that's a pretty nice thing to have and aga

in there's no shame in back testing it's like if you were a an investment banker or something you think you just decide to do it and then you just start spending real money I don't think they do they train for a while they test things uh endlessly in terms of what they're going to invest in uh next and uh how investing this much bumping up this this sort of bank roll will change the overall pie and ask yourself why would you not take that approach um compared to just jumping in the deep end ever

y time and and seeing if you can swim in there so incredible incredible value in terms of over 1.5 goals on the alerts in these games and uh we didn't dip into these games yesterday we didn't even look into them we just looked into a couple from the filter and we'll toggle the probability model on as well just to see um what the values were pregame so 1.53 1.47 1.29 for this game that finished with three goals three second half goals and that was fifth against second so League positions I think

could be important coming into this final stretch of the the season uh we're in a very very interesting in time now you you do get tighter first halfes I believe and this is again why you you test these things continuously you can you can visualize the charts throughout the year because seasons and and and the way games are played does change there's no doubt about it uh you can just see the data it's just clear um in certain leagues and in the majority of you know top level leagues so that filt

er was created live on yesterday's video and um if you want to check it out I'd recommend it just so you can see the process of creating a filter and um what rules might apply all the rules that you can add as well and um as always if you've got any feedback or videos that you want to see me make markets that you want to see me dip into um again just think of it as a niche you know you can just dip into another Market you can research another market and again this this is what it comes down to y

ou got to just use your own brain uh essentially I mean I don't it's just I know it sounds blunt but you've just got to use your own brain and uh you can do it odd alerts is giving you the tools to be your own tipster that is essentially what we're trying to do um and I think we do a pretty good job of it so I have loaded the filter again um and here it is I thought what I would do what would be a good idea again thinking about how somebody can get value from this this video even if it's in a we

ek or a month or whatever is look at these games that have been played today and uh do the same sort of process maybe now that we know of certain markets that are worthy of an alert like over 1.5 goals we can just add that into the mix when we are thinking about the game and when we're looking at the game um so you could even have a little checklist right if you if you're looking at second half goals within a filter like this or one that you create what is your checklist what are you looking for

what markets are you thinking about and again that is important to Define because then you don't want your mind stray into something that you you actually shouldn't be looking at right because we can do that as well sometimes if we just see something oh this has happened but that's not why we got to the game important to remember that so from Turkey 10:30 a.m. Sunday the 17th 2024 if you are watching from the future how many views has this video got as you're watching it maybe you'll add to the

like count um by hitting like And subscribe if you haven't already so uh just one goal scored in the last three games for this team at home at home they are pretty good they lost only to uh the team that is currently first that is the only defeat at home since the middle of November and um the away team is coming into this with one defeat as well to the team that was second this is sixth against seventh as well so these two teams could be potentially battling for a European spot or promotion or

something it is the first Liga which I think is the second division I don't see Galatasaray on here I don't see um Bashas on here so yeah the super leager isn't it the top league so first league is the um yeah there will be some sort of promotion push for these teams in terms of playoffs I don't think at sixth and seventh in this stage of the season they will be pushing for the the title but we can take a look at the table and yeah they are pushing really hard I mean the top three it is open is

n't it 44 to 40 points separates third and Ninth so this is again why I like just mixing it up in terms of uh rules and filters and stuff because you just get to explore pretty interesting situations in different uh leagues and stuff and at this stage of the Season especially you get games where teams don't really want to lose and um that can definitely play into to the markets we're looking at because the first half might be tighter and then teams might just try and Nick it especially away from

home away from home it is .85 goal score per game home team has conceded just five so this could be a tight Affair um if we look at the probability model I would expect the unders to be yeah odds on 1.63 which as a percentage is 61.2% but over 1.5 goals 65% in interesting isn't it um especially for the alerts and the potential there so now you can see we have a few different options uh in terms of what we go for here now looking at the highest scoring half being that second half it is 2.2 entic

ing for sure and over 1.5 goals peaking with 1.43 which is actually a decent starting point to be fair um 1.5 if you can get it is is obviously fantastic for over 1.5 goals depending on the data of course but in terms of the alerts it's it's a nice starting point is 1.42 hopefully a a slow first half and to set an alert we can just go here uh highest score in half you can set an alert on that in case there is a first half goal and you still believe you know that this game you're looking at poten

tially has so much going for it in terms of second half goals there could be outliers in that where it's a high scoring game expected four goals in the second half compared to one in the first half or something along those lines second half goals as well for there to be a second half goal 1.3 at this moment in time people that do like to create five or six folds again I don't ever recommend it but you can potentially get uh games with a second half goal at 1.4 which you know if you combine a few

of them you can get the odds up but again just think about maybe lowering the risk of the the combined bet and if you just convert the odds to probability you're doing the work for yourself really get that probability up and as I said at the start of the video it can still be low to be valuable some value bet systems you you need you can have less than half of your games Win of course you can it just depends on the odds doesn't it um and again you don't have to win every single bet if you've go

t a system that you've back tested and you have confidence in it and um again odd alerts I just hope we can make you bet with more confidence and with more discipline um that is the aim and that is why the videos are not just me giving tips and showing bet slips because that is not a sensible thing to do now in terms of the the timing data the away team uh rarely scoring away from home just two first half goals in the first 45 minutes for the home team they're not the most prolific of goal score

rs I would say but um it is an even split in terms of first half second half now you can scroll down to see percentages as I always uh suggest to do um interestingly just as we get there uh the home team has conceded just three second half goals just two in the first half so their defense uh must be a pretty good and we did we saw it before didn't we I forgot about it and because of this great defense because of the league position because of you know what's at stake at the moment we can see thi

s team putting in a good tight performance uh We've not even looked at the head-to-heads yet uh but we will just do that quickly as well before we jump back to the timing data so at home uh they did lose in that last game but even when they lose they only concede once at home uh this team is pretty good what was the probability model saying for a victory 1.81 so 1.72 with most bookmakers as well so I think the result is is a bit of a risky one here to be honest because the away team um certainly

not bad uh away from home not bad you know these these teams it seems that they lose consistently to the teams that are in that sort of top two push um but apart from that especially in the second half of the season for this team they're looking pretty good at the moment and uh the home team not as great but at home they have the ability they have the defense they've shown that um to keep things tight so in terms of nil nil percentage in the first half it is 77% for that away team and uh it is

very low in the second half just 15% in terms of nil nil in the second half so coming into this game off a defeat you could see that home team just looking to make sure they've got everything right this week and um this is a big game of course all the games between the sort of top three and eight at the moment in this league which is again something you could look out for um are going to be highly contested and it's these next few weeks you would expect if they are playing against each other um

that could maybe create a bit of a gap because at the minute there really isn't one uh but some of these leagues you know they are incredible uh the Bundesliga 2 the last few seasons it's come down to like the last day who's going to get in the playoffs and sometimes who gets that second spot as well usually there's a uh somebody that you know takes the top spot in most of these leagues we'll do another game as well and um we'll just check out the probability model actually as well because over

1.5 goals is where we could be setting alerts based on on yesterday's game so we've got a game in mova we've got a rivalry in Israel 75% 76% here in Brazil second against third um the Brazil game from yesterday was really nice actually and uh it's just interesed you'll see familiar leagues coming up now um there's a few competitions in Brazil going at the minute that are at pretty good stages and um yeah some some really good teams I mean this team looks like a very very good team uh btts in the

last five games uh 2-1 21 21 in succession away from home they are at home today where they're still unbeaten and um looking pretty good now this away team also pretty good it is second against third what did we expect away from home though just one Victory but that was in the previous game one defeat All Season what about that head-to-head well it was a 1-1 draw back in March of this year and both goals coming in the second half there um and again I think there two late goals in the second hal

f and when it's a league like this where you know it is a bit of an obscure League um a good thing to do straight away is to jump into the odds just to see what kind of markets are available seems like there's quite a lot to be honest on offer highest scoring half is available with quite a few bookmakers I would not expect um support for this kind of League uh it's it's one of those sort of pre-season competitions I think in in Brazil correct me if I'm wrong please um second half to see the most

goals in a game against second against third I think again I do believe that that plays into it depending on the stage of the season of course we can check the progress uh for this season 97% so how will that play into things again I hope I'm just giving you a good slice of what goes through my brain when I look at these games I think as I've mentioned in this video before it's it's key to to have context going into these things um so I'll leave that I mean what I'll do again is is share the sh

ort list um so this is Sunday da Sunday 17th March but yeah I mean what you can do as well is is let me know what are the markets you find within these games and we can sort of collaborate and build this together over the next few days and um it could align nicely with something I'm trying to launch as well I want to launch a new way to um find games there's nothing wrong with quick filters as we can see in these videos it works very well but I just I just know it can be better if you know what

I mean I want to allow automated sort of back testing at this stage at this point right so you can find some games and then it just tells you like over the last 90 days this happened um and that I think I could get that done pretty quickly and I think it'd be a massive massive update but I want to start again with the whole front page um and I I did make a start but it's such a big job whilst also developing other parts of the site so what I might do in the next couple of days is put something i

n here short term that when you look at um all the games here and and you find games via a quick filter it will scan all of the teams uh I'm just thinking how out loud how it can work best it could scan all of the teams it could get all of the uh recent games maybe last 10 games for them them teams and just show you a sort of summary of it all but also with a bit of History so back testing how many games did they win who's the most informed Team without actually clicking into the games I think t

hat would be pretty good um and again just thinking out loud so if you've got any feedback if You' got any to add to that potentially um I think that would be pretty good and as I say these videos going forward they will be with the intention of um being able to be watched in five months in a year in 10 years maybe not 10 years but you know you never know so uh with that I hope you enjoyed it I know it's a long one sorry happy Sunday morning if you are watching on Sunday and um yeah I will see y

ou in the next one thank you as always and if you've got any feedback on odd alerts or you just want to ask any questions I will be building a support AI bot soon maybe today um Sunday I like to do things a little bit side projecty um so stay tuned for that as well and I will see you in the next one