“There could be war in Sweden.”
Those are the words of Carl-Oskar Bohlin – Sweden’s Civil Defense Minister – and
they were spoken to the attendees of a defense conference in January 2024. Worse yet for Sweden,
Bohlin’s isn’t the only voice in the country that’s warning its citizens to prepare for war.
The Commander-in-Chief of the military, General Michael Byden, not only backs up what Bohlin said,
but builds upon it, saying that all Swedes should prepare mentally for the possibility of war.
Against who? Putin, of course.
The comments caused an uproar in some parts of Sweden, and panic in others, with
the country’s former Prime Minister – Magdalena Andersson – objecting to the warning while
pointing out that “it’s not as if war is just outside the door.” Elsewhere in the country,
a children’s rights organization named Bris reported that its national helpline has started
to see an uptick of worried calls from children asking about a potential conflict, as well as
an increase in
TikTok posts talking about it. Before Bohlin’s statement, Bris
received none of these types of calls. But to Bohlin and Byden, as well as many of
the more military-minded people in the country, the call to prepare wasn’t only necessary.
It was a wake-up call – one designed to shock the Swedish system to ensure it’s prepared for
Putin if and when he lands on their doorstep. The question now is simple:
Why is Sweden preparing for war with Russia? After all, Putin has his hands full in Ukraine
.
And though the taking of Avdiivka does give him a certain military advantage, it’s likely
he’ll be embroiled in that conflict for at least the rest of 2024, if not longer
depending on the level of support that Ukraine receives from its Western allies.
But it’s that very war that provides us with our first reason why Sweden is
starting to prepare to fight Russia. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
Europe woke up to the fact that it has a territorially minded leader on its doorste
p
who’s willing to invade other countries to stake his claim to land that he believes belongs to
Russia. And since Putin’s war with Ukraine began, NATO has been an ever-present thorn in his
side. Ukraine wants to join – guaranteeing protection from NATO’s members and forcing them
to enter the conflict due to Article 5 of the organization’s charter – and many other countries
are starting to see the benefits of being part of the military alliance. After all, it’s better
to be part of a group
that can combine forces to fend off Russia than to be on the outside while
hoping that members of that group will provide financial and military aid.
Sweden recognizes this. That’s why the country’s lawmakers officially
ratified and approved its bid to join NATO on March 22, 2023. With that approval in
hand, Sweden now had a clear path to becoming part of the union, bolstering
its defenses in the process, right? Not so much.
Though NATO invited Sweden to join the group during its Madrid Sum
mit in June
2022, paving the way for the new laws in Sweden allowing the country to apply, it took almost two
years for the country to become a fully-fledged member. Hungary, which already has ties to Russia,
stood in its way as the only country that refused to approve the proposal to have Sweden join. Worse
yet for Sweden, it faced no definitive timeline on when it would be able to join NATO following its
invitation. Hungary’s president claimed that he’d need to hold a meeting with Sweden’
s leadership
in Budapest before he’d provide his approval. What do all of these NATO
wranglings have to do with Russia? According to NATO, not much at all. In speaking
about Sweden’s membership, NATO claims that Putin indicates he sees little to no threat to
Russia if Sweden joins the group. His issue would come if NATO then starts to build military
infrastructure in Sweden or neighboring Finland, the latter of which shares an 830-mile border with
Russia and becomes a NATO member in April
2023. Publicly, Putin and his cronies have
been far more overt in their warnings. In April 2022 – just a few months prior to NATO
extending its hand to Sweden – BBC News reported that a Kremlin spokesperson named Dmitry Peskov
told reporters that NATO “remains a tool geared towards confrontation.” He went on to make
a more sinister claim, saying that Russia would have to “rebalance the situation,”
should Sweden and Finland join the group. Finland was already a member before the
creation of
this video. And finally, after months of wrangling, Sweden officially joined
the NATO family on March 7, 2024. Of course, both will have taken note of Peskov’s comments
when they were made, with their desire to join NATO likely being a counter to this rebalancing.
The question, of course, is what does “rebalance the situation” mean in this context.
To Russia, NATO is a domineering force, not only in Europe but the entire Western
world. It’s the propagator of the Western world order and a gro
up that prevents Putin
from achieving his geopolitical aims. In short, Putin believes that NATO places global geopolitics
out of balance, allowing them to favor the group’s members via the collective military power
and the bargaining might that comes with it. Rebalancing could simply mean that Putin
would seek to build stronger alliances with other anti-West countries such as China. There’s
evidence Russia is doing just that, especially in last year’s BRICS expansion, which saw Iran join
t
he loose economic alliance while both Russian and Chinese influence grew in the organization.
But the other way to interpret these rebalancing comments would be that Russia may invade Finland
and Sweden in response to their NATO membership, especially if that membership results in the
country’s hosting infrastructure he believes could damage his ambitions.
After all, it’s not like Russia and Sweden don’t have a history.
Territory has long been a sticking point between the two nations, even wit
h Putin’s June
2022 claims that Russia doesn’t have the same sort of territorial quarrel with Sweden that it has
with Ukraine. When doing so, Putin even went as far as to claim that Sweden, as well as Finland,
could join whatever group they wanted. Of course, that claim came alongside yet another threat
to meet the building or deployment of military infrastructure in either country if the time came.
However, we also know that territorial rights, both modern and ancient, are high on Putin’s
agenda. The same goes for history and war, which he covered extensively during his February
interview with Tucker Carlson. That bizarre interview began with Putin delivering an extensive
lecture on his own interpretation of European history, which he used as justification for his
invasion of Ukraine and talked about Kyivan Rus, a medieval superpower country that included Ukraine
and Belarus’s territory, as well as Russia’s. That focus on history would have scared
many in Sweden because the
country has its own longstanding history of
war with Russia to look back on. Take a trip back to the 19th century, and you see
Russia pulling moves that are eerily similar to what they’re doing in Ukraine today. The year
was 1807 and the great French emperor Napoleon was running roughshod throughout Europe. The
year prior, he’d defeated Prussia to secure his hold on what we now know as Germany, with his
next goal being to close all economic ports to Britain. This would cut the island nation
off
from Europe economically so he could starve it out and achieve an easy victory.
That’s where Russia comes into play. By June 1807, Napoleon had taken Friedland,
which opened the way for him to advance on Russia. Pushing the Russian lines back to the
River Alle, Napoleon exerted his nation’s power before calling the Russian tsar – Alexander I –
to a meeting in order to negotiate peace. Rather than battling a treaty out, the two emperors
found themselves fascinated with one another to th
e point where they started drawing up
plans for a new world order. Part of those plans included dividing Europe up into Russian
and French regions, with the task of cowing Sweden into joining this new joint-continental
empire falling into Russia’s hands. In return for taking Sweden, Russia would receive
Finland, which was Swedish territory at the time. Digging into the war that followed could fill
an entire video, so we won’t do it here. The key information you need to know is that Sweden
and Russia fought viciously, with both achieving major victories, though Russia ultimately started
to come out on top. To avoid losing more of its territory, Sweden entered negotiations with Russia
in September 1809, with the result being that Russia annexed Finland and the Aland Islands.
That annexation ended a nearly 600-year-old union between Sweden and Finland, essentially
setting the stage for the latter to become its own country. Russia held influence in Finland
for over a century foll
owing these negotiations, only leaving the country in 1917, a year before
the end of the First World War. During this occupation and period of control, Finland
began to develop its own national identity, even to the point where it was granted
autonomy within the Russian Empire of the time. However, the Bolshevik Revolution put paid
to Finland’s relationship with Russia, serving as the trigger for it declaring
its independence in December 1917. Almost 18 months later, the U.S. recognized Fin
land as
an independent nation, and the formation of the Scandinavia that we know today was completed.
That story is relevant because it shows that Sweden and Russia have a military history.
In most cases, that history would mean little. The war between the two – which resulted in Sweden’s
loss of Finnish territory and the creation of a completely new country – was over two centuries
ago. It’s ancient history, with Sweden and Finland both long being recognized as separate entities
in the 21st
century. But if there’s anything that Putin’s conversation with Carlson showed us, it’s
that Russia’s leader is willing to twist history to justify his own actions.
He did it to Ukraine. Now, both Finland and Sweden may
fear that he’ll do it to them. After all, the nations aren’t only
linked in their desire to join NATO. They’ve also teamed up to fight against
the Soviet Union in more recent history. In 1939, Finland began to suspect that the Soviet
Union intended to annex the country once
again, taking back the control it had lost a
little over two decades prior. For its part, the Soviet Union feared Finland’s proximity to
its borders, suspecting that the nation could be used by others as a base from which
its enemies could attack in the future. That fear sounds rather similar to Putin’s worries
about Finland and Sweden becoming NATO members. Regardless, Finnish suspicions were confirmed
in November of that year, when the Soviets invaded the tiny nation just three months be
fore
Adolf Hitler’s fateful invasion of Poland. What followed was a three-and-a-half-month war, during
which the superior might of the Russian army was somehow repelled by Finland’s comparatively
meager forces, at least for a brief time. Finland managed to put up this resistance
with the help of Sweden, which provided military aircraft during the brief conflict.
Though this initial loss damaged Russian morale, the Soviets came back later with a
better-organized army. Finland, already exhaus
ted from the early battles of the short-lived war,
eventually decided to enter negotiations with the Soviet Union. The Treaty of Moscow was
signed – seeing the Finnish cede 11% of their territory to Moscow – and another war pitting
Sweden and Finland against Russia had ended. Sit tight. We’re not quite coming
back to the present day just yet. During the Second World War, Sweden cleverly
positioned itself as a neutral entity, knowing that it didn’t have the military strength to repel
the co
mbined Axis forces. That positioning allowed it to be a vocal critic of both the Soviet Union
and the U.S., though it was far warier of Russia behind the scenes. According to Reuters, the end
of the Second World War – and the increased power of the Soviet Union in that war’s aftermath – made
Sweden suspect that it would soon face a Soviet invasion of its own. So, from the 1960s up until
the last couple of decades, Sweden had a secret deal with the U.S. that the latter would come to
its defe
nse should it ever face that invasion. Other incidents that created tension between
Sweden and Russia include the downing of a pair of Swedish aircraft over the Baltic Sea in
1952 – an act for which the Soviet Union didn’t claim responsibility until 1991 – and the “Whiskey
on the Rocks” incident. That saw a Whiskey-class Soviet submarine run ashore on the southern
Swedish coast, with Swedish authorities of the time claiming the sub emitted enough radiation to
suggest that there was a nuclea
r device on board. Fast-forward to 2024.
Tensions between Russia and Sweden have eased considerably from their Cold War peak. However,
Putin’s threats of aggression related to Sweden’s desire to join NATO ring similar to the reason
why Russia invaded Finland during the Winter War. Both are close to Russia’s borders – with
Finland sharing a border – and both could become sites of the very military infrastructure that
could cause retaliation from Russia. Add to all of this Putin’s now-establis
hed trait of using the
past to justify his actions in the present – as we see in Ukraine – and the possibility of a Russian
invasion of Sweden no longer seems so far-fetched. It may not be a priority for Putin.
But with Sweden now a part of NATO, it’s positioned itself as an enemy of Russia, at least
in Putin’s eyes. Even if that membership doesn’t come with the caveat of allowing NATO to build
military infrastructure on its territory, Sweden has still joined forces with what Russia claims
is one of the most domineering groups in the world. And given that Sweden – along with Finland
– are essentially right on Russia’s doorstep, it’s possible that Putin will turn his threats into
a reality should he come out on top in Ukraine. And if that war happens, it may not
start with troops on the ground. Instead, it might start with cyberattacks.
According to the International Trade Administration, or ITA, Sweden is one of the
world’s most well-connected countries. Over 98% of its popula
tion are hooked up to the internet,
with most having access to smartphones and making use of remote access to work and play. But that
connectivity creates a problem. Ransomware attacks have been on the rise in the country, growing by
144% between 2019 and 2023. Sophos Sweden, which releases an annual cyberattack report for the
country, claims that it’s one of the most exposed in the world in terms of the number of attacks it
suffers and how much those attacks cost companies. Now, think abou
t it in these terms.
If Sweden is so vulnerable to cyberattacks on the business level, how prepared do you
think its relatively underfunded military would be to fend off even more sinister
attacks aimed at its infrastructure? Not well enough, according to Sakerhetspolisen,
the Swedish Security Service. It points out that Sweden’s military buildup creates a greater risk
of cyberattacks, especially given that it involves an increasing number of entities falling under the
country’s national se
curity scope. It specifically cites “shortcomings in protective security,”
claiming that Sweden’s “total defense capability risks being compromised while it’s being built
up,” if nothing is done to remedy the issue. Of course, there’s one nation that’s known
for exploiting cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Russia.
According to the National Cyber Security Center, we saw Russia’s use of cyberattacks in action just
one hour before its invasion of Ukraine. U.K. and U.S. intelligence officials agree
that the country
launched an operation targeting a Ukrainian commercial communications company named Viasat,
with a particular focus on the country’s military. The attack also affected wind farms throughout
much of central Europe, in addition to cutting off internet access for many in Ukraine. It would
be inaccurate to say the attack paved the way for Russia’s invasion – it would have happened anyway
– but it certainly disrupted communications at a time when Ukraine’s military needed to be
able
to organize its defenses against the invasion. So, we see yet another reason for
Sweden to prepare for war with Russia. Beyond its NATO membership and the territorial
claims that Putin likely believes he has, Sweden is vulnerable enough on the cyber level
to make an attack by Russia a real possibility. Of course, all of this leads
us to another question: If Sweden believes it needs to gear up for war
against Russia, what is it doing to prepare? The first, and most obvious, answer com
es from its
new membership of NATO. By joining that military alliance, Sweden now falls under the protection of
31 other countries thanks to Article 5 of the NATO charter. That article states that any attack
by a non-NATO country on a NATO member’s soil will be considered an attack on all members.
In other words, should Russia invade Sweden, it’ll be able to call on the combined military
might of 31 other countries – including the United States – to come to its defense.
That alone might be
enough to dissuade Putin. However, Sweden isn’t taking any chances.
In addition to its NATO membership, Sweden has upped its military spending considerably. In
September 2023, Reuters announced that it would add 700 million crowns to its military budget
– approximately $68.5 million – bringing its spending up to 119 billion crowns – or about
$11.6 billion – in 2024. That number amounts to around 2.1% of the country’s gross domestic
product, or GDP, bringing it in line with NATO’s 2% recommen
dation and demonstrating that Sweden
is willing to invest big in its fighting forces. But even before that announcement, Sweden
had been on a military spending spree. In April 2023, the country ordered 20
Pansarterrängbil 300 vehicles from Finnish manufacturer Patria. These 6-by-6 armored vehicles
were purchased under the Common Armored Vehicle Systems program, of which Sweden became a member
in 2022. Capable of carrying up to 12 people, they feature a modular design that allows them
to be
configured for purposes as varied as ambulance duties, and command and control.
Two months later, Sweden inked a deal to purchase 3,000 MUV 4-by-4 vehicles from Italian
manufacturer IDV. All of which will become part of the Swedish Armed Forces and meet the
country’s need for light multipurpose vehicles that it could use on the battlefield. And in
September 2023, the country also signed on the dotted line with BAE – a British manufacturer –
to purchase around $500 million worth of ARCHER ar
tillery delivery systems. That order will
shore up Sweden’s numbers, as it has already donated some of its ARCHER systems to Ukraine.
Speaking of Ukraine, Sweden isn’t ignoring its importance in a potential war with Russia.
After all, if Ukraine is able to stop Russia in its tracks, that victory would minimize the threat
that Putin poses to Sweden. That’s likely why 20 February 2022 brought with it an announcement
from the Swedish government that it would donate an additional $693 million to
Ukraine – the 15th
support package it’s delivered to the country. So, Sweden is flashing the cash to boost
its military. Granted, it’s not spending nearly as much as Russia, which increased its
military spending to $160 billion in 2023. But this spending is a clear sign of intent –
Sweden knows it needs to be stronger and it’s willing to buy what it needs to shore up its
defenses. That, combined with its NATO membership, makes the country a stronger threat to
Russia should Putin decide to
invade. But there’s more.
The country has also taken steps to reintroduce conscription.
In 2010, Sweden did away with its military service program – which was a holdover from the Cold War
period – leading to a drastic reduction in the country’s armed forces. That lack of conscription
only lasted for eight years, though, with the program being reintroduced in 2018. At that time,
it was essentially voluntary. However, the war in Ukraine – coupled with Sweden’s NATO application
– caused it to r
ocket up. In 2023, conscription rose by 30%, with Al Jazeera reporting that the
country plans to raise its conscription numbers to 10,000 by 2030. The country’s Prime Minister –
Ulf Kristersson – shared the prevailing sentiment that inspired the move when speaking to the
National Conference of Defense in early 2024: “Sweden can’t sit around investigating
things year after year. Now, it’s important to get things done.”
It certainly isn’t sitting around anymore. Sweden is now a NATO member. It
’s spending more
on its military than it has in decades and it’s using conscription to bolster its numbers
and create a generation of Swedes who are trained and capable of entering combat, should the
situation call for it. The one thing it’s stopped short of is reintroducing its nuclear program.
In 1945 – immediately in the wake of World War II and the dropping of nukes on Nagasaki
and Hiroshima – Sweden created a nuclear research program. It spent the next two decades
researching how to de
velop these powerful weapons, though there’s no evidence that it was ever able
to assemble a nuclear device. By the mid-1960s, around the time it created the secret defense
deal with the United States that we mentioned earlier in the video, Sweden decided to end this
program, becoming a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in the process.
It doesn’t intend to break that treaty. In an April 2023 post discussing its then-proposed
entry into NATO, Sweden confirmed its commitment to
nuclear disarmament. It won’t build nuclear
bombs, despite the fact that Russia has them. But frankly, it doesn’t need to. Now that it’s a
NATO member, it’s allied with France, the U.S., and the U.K. – all nuclear powers that are
bound by Article 5 to come to Sweden’s defense should Russia ever attack on Swedish soil.
All of this leads us to a final question: Could Sweden fend off – or even
defeat – Russia if war ever comes? If fighting alone, it would likely stand no
chance. The Russian wa
r machine is so powerful that, even if Sweden could turn the fight into
the battle of attrition we’re seeing in Ukraine, it would likely be overcome.
But Sweden isn’t alone. It’s now part of a military alliance that will
join it in its fight if it ever finds itself at war with Russia. Putin will be fuming.
And he’ll be ever angrier if Sweden allows NATO to build military infrastructure on its
territory. But unlike Ukraine – which isn’t a NATO member and doesn’t benefit from
Article 5 of the
NATO charter – Sweden now has allies who are duty-bound to join the
fight, rather than simply support it with funds and equipment, if Russia ever invaded.
Now, we’ll turn the questions over to you. Do you think Russia will actually invade
Sweden? What would happen if Russia and Sweden did go to war? Tell us what you think in the
comments and thank you for watching the video. Now go check out Why Finland Joining NATO
Destroys PUTIN or click this other video instead!
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