so we learned today that Maine Republican senator
Susan Collins she hosted bipartisan talks of senators to try to come up with a solution to
the government shutdown and to keep people from talking over each other in her office she had them
used a Talking Stick you probably heard this you know whoever's holding the stick that Senator
is the only one who can talk however at one point one of the Senators loudly interrupted the
stick holding senator who responded by throwing the stick across th
e room and damaging a shelf
and Susan Collins office so Collins is true then replaced the stick with a small rubber ball well
I'm John zipper I'm your host for week to week and the Commonwealth clubs vice president of media and
editorial on today's program will of course talk about the shutdown which is now unshut down we'll
do a roundup of other Trump news the unexpected San Francisco mayoral race sanctuary cities and
we'll share some 2018 predictions as always I note that the Commonwealth
Club is a place for
people with a wide range of views so any opinions that are expressed here are those of the speakers
and not of the Commonwealth Club now let's meet our panelists today I'm very glad to have all
three of them here however I must admit I'm I'm disappointed in all of you Donald Trump releases
his fake news awards and none of you win it better luck next time we'll start with on the far
end of the stage with Carla Marinucci she's the senior writer for the political Californi
a
playbook you can find her on twitter at c Marunouchi next to her is Bob Butler a reporter
for KCBS radio and he's on Twitter at Bob Butler 7 the next to me is Mark Z bareback he's the
political writer for the Los Angeles Times he's on Twitter at Mark Z bareback so there oh there
should be question cards out there if not our folks will spread them around I apologize I don't
think I got to put the cards around earlier get a stick there you go just use a rubber ball but
let's start with the
government shutdown as a midnight on Friday the federal government went
in to do really a partial government shutdown mode suspending some services and payments until
Congress and the president agreed on a spending bill this happened today Congress voted and
we heard just before we came in here that Trump has signed the bill to fund the government
through February 8 with the Democrats accepting a Republican promise to vote on immigration in
the next couple of weeks I should note that that
February 8th deadline is actually also the day
of our next week to week so we will be talking about this then hope you can join us there but
let's start with the what do we know about was this all I mean we're right back where we were
really three days ago mark I mean was this an exercise I was just pointless or did one of the
sites actually get something out of this well was it pointless to the extent that the ball hasn't
been moved very far down the field to use the lapse into a sports me
taphor I mean we're gonna
be back at this again in three weeks I mean there were some concessions what Democrats got was a
commitment from Mitch McConnell the Republican leader to debate immigration legislation I mean
what is what is fundamental issue here is is the so-called dreamers I presume most of you are aware
of what but for definitional sake children at the time my people who are brought to the United
States as minors by their parents and are now here and their statuses is up in the
air there's about
800,000 of them and you know the odd thing is is everyone seems to be sympathetic or or I should
say everyone most seem to be sympathetic including the president who's talked about the dreamers and
these are great kids and I want to bill with heart it's very important to Democrats love excuse me
Oh bill bill love so that's that is what is at this of this latest impasse so what Democrats
got was a commitment from Mitch McConnell that there will be a debate on this a fair d
ebate a
chance to bring up amendments and have an open debate now that's Senate no commitment from the
house what Republicans got in turn was there was a repeal of attacks on medical devices which has
been sort of a sticking point Bugaboo if you will for Republicans associated with Obamacare or the
Affordable Eric Affordable Care Act so they got that out of it those are sort of the major points
and then we're back at it three weeks from now but I mean talking about winners and losers on thi
s
thing I mean I think I'm only looking at that or Politico headlines that have just been published
in the last like hour so Democrats rolled in this shutdown standoff liberals livid after deal to
end the standoff it goes on and on you know the hashtag is Schumer's sellout as what I'm seeing
I think there were the Democrats this is a little bit thorny because before it as a shutdown what's
happening the sense was okay they've got the high ground you know the polls are behind the dreamers
A
mericans are really behind some kind of a deal here the the Democrats had the whole issue of
President Trump's all comments going in that was firing up their base and that is where this was a
torturous thing for Democrats all the way around I mean in terms of you know nobody wants to shut
down the government particularly in California we have high stakes here California has more
federal workers in any other state 140,000 has more dreamers has more chip recipients so there
was a lot at stake
for California here so it was torturous but the fact is that the Democrats base
was really into this they were like look if you don't stand up now for this what are you going
to stand right and it's all a question we know that the Republicans McConnell at all have been
like fighting tooth and nail for their for the Republican base and a lot of the Democrats were
saying you know the Democratic base was saying that you needed the women's March a lot of people
came out a lot of those signs I
saw I was here on Market Street and covered that and saw the signs
a lot of it the signs were about Dhaka you know and other issues not even not just related to the
me to issue so for the Democrats it was also about the 2018 elections and keeping the base fired up
and I'm wondering now when looking at some of the reactions I Arc said we'll see it's a little early
to tell what the what the fallout is going to be and who's gonna be perceived as the winner or the
loser but you saw right after
this deal there was Sarah Sanders saying well you know the Democrats
cave because we were right and we pump you can go down the list on Republicans like corn and saying
yeah they got a deal from McConnell but he was going to do that anyway so what did they really
get kind of painting the Democrats is being had in this deal a problem with their base I think
there's a problem with the base but I also think that what Cornyn said 'would Sanders I mean they
always say everything to blame the Dem
ocrats for everything I mean the Democrats are the reason
why we lost World War two I mean I mean if you listen to them everything is about the Democrats
it is weird that you you basically have the White House the Senate the Congress and you can't keep
the government open because in the senator you have to be able to legislate and negotiate and
they don't want to negotiate at all the Democrats have a problem at the base I think because
because you have so many different factions the the lib
eral real liberal faction you have the
moderate Democrats and you know the Bernie bros I mean these are it's hard to get them all on the
same page and I think that's one of the things that the Democrats have to really fight against
is because if they can't if the same thing happens this year that happened in 16 the chances of
have been successful of 2018 aren't that great they have to at some point come together and say
all right this is not the best that we could have got this is this this
is not what I wanted this
is the best we could have gotten and I'm ok with that and at some point you have to just cut your
losses can I can i interject a note of skepticism cynicism a caveat and asterisk or correction
no not a correction because I'm just gonna say look I liken this to trying to assess the damage
when you're in the middle of a tornado right have you ever covered her too or scene or tornado
they'll be like houses that are blown apart and right next to them or ones that are
standing
intact and you don't know you really can't size up the damage or the impact I mean we're in the
middle of a political hurricane tornado choose whatever natural disaster metaphor you want we
don't know and I would I would say there's 100 some or 200 some days until the election that's
gonna be about 600 news cycles that's gonna be about 10,000 presidential tweets no there's a
tendency because it's happening right now to just project everything that's happening now forward
we honest
ly don't know there's there's so much that's going to happen between now and November
and know that if say by February 8th or so there is a dreamer legislation either passed or Ontrack
won't that take up some of the air it's an ongoing story and right if this is this is a switch from
natural disasters to do books right if this is the first chapter you know we don't know what the
ending is going to be it Democrats we don't know they could say wow look how brilliant we were we
we did what we
did in the first round and then we ended up in these fabulous package for dreamers
everything is wonderful so we don't know it's it's unfolding even as we speak but I do think I mean
on the dreamers issue you know Maggie Haberman tweeted today that it's already too late for a lot
of these dreamers I mean that the fact is that the the deadlines are coming up in in many states
and and I think we saw this ad from President Trump this week that suggested they're not gonna
I mean from his presid
ential campaign that really to Milla hearkened back to that Pete Wilson ad
for prop 187 that they keep coming it had this you know illegal immigration crime pictures of
the border at Mexico and really talking about how Democrats are going to be complicit in any kind of
crimes that are that are committed by undocumented immigrants they keep likening daca recipients to
illegal immigrants and and I think that rhetoric suggests this isn't gonna go away if some kind
of deal is I mean I talked to
a a hardcore Trump supporter today who said the way many of them see
it is the Democrats want to keep this issue going or you welcome all these docket because they want
to create a base for the future that's why they want all these illegal immigrants in the countries
to but it registered them to vote so they can have so they continue to be in power that's how some
of the far-right is seeing it I'm not saying that moderate Republicans do and we did see this week
Schwarzenegger and some mode
rate Republicans here in California really pushed back on this and and
remind Republicans are the words of Ronald Reagan with regard to shining city on the hill this is
a place that welcomes people from all countries to make good too so they can make good in this
country we'll see which of these sort of visions takes hold in the Republican Party as it goes
forward that that's what yeah I would say that the Republicans I think ever reason to be scared
because the way they've treated the drea
mers if they do become citizens we didn't think I vote
for I mean that's where I look at it one last thing on this on the other Democrats of what they
did you know you don't want to see the government shutdown but after being I can't use that word
but after being run roughshod over by the GOP since they got the the majority in Congress
the Democrats finally took a stand now will that stand hurt them in the end I don't think so
I think they're I think a just that there's time for them to to
to lick their wounds like their
hurt feelings but and they have a look at the big picture and I just would say one thing else
on the dreamers there's an economic issue with the dreamers particularly here in California where
you got 200,000 of them in the studies show that ninety percent of these kids are either in school
or working and that their economic impact on the country as a whole is like five billion dollars
they add five billion dollars to the economy in California alone according
to I think was a Pew
study or one of the two research yeah Q research that they they have contributed almost 350 million
dollars in taxes in California so that's that's an issue that matters in California and I think
that's why you saw about senator Feinstein and Senator Harris today vote against this measure
if you don't think they did they didn't think that there were enough [ __ ] sake that was
enough security for them if you don't know to be a dreamer you have to either be in school be
working you have to have no criminal record you have to register every year and pay about $500 a
year in order to be considered a dreamer so what Obama did was get them to come out of the shadows
and they did they came out this is here I am if you're going to protect me great you know and now
it's a double-edged sword but I keep hearing them talk about them being a draw on on you on the
economy they're paying taxes they're paying into Social Security and Medicare they're paying you no
inco
me tax if they if this never changes when they retire they aren't eligible for Social Security or
Medicare they aren't eligible for welfare because they're not citizens and that's something that
I think people the Republicans have done a very good job of sitting the agenda and getting
people to think that's the case but that's the reality and I think I think one more thing on
this where Trump has spoken out numerous times on this and then the ad did as well that Republicans
are framing this
issue with regard to immigration it's you know a cop always talks about the way
words are used how Republicans use the death tax instead of intere of this tax and so forth
this time it's to me it's chain migration what is chain migration it's just it's really family
reunification that's the way immigration has worked for decades here and Trump is talking
about how we need a merit-based system for immigration and this is going to shape the whole
discussion going forward to I mean I know in
my case not one of my four grandparents from Italy
who were all illiterate peasants would have been eligible under the the kind of criteria they're
talking about and I think that's true for probably a lot of folks in this audience right CHUM's
grandparents - yeah and Trump's grandparents - as a matter of fact when you dude you get extra
points though if you came from Norway right because they're very hard-wearing new people
we know that they're a suggestion by some in Congress and I think m
aybe a growing chatter
that the Democrats should just say fine mr. president you can have your wall funding you know
give us the dreamers that would mark what do you think my understanding and I don't profess to have
first-hand knowledge of this but my understanding is that part of the frustration Democrats have is
they feel that they have on more than one occasion reached an agreement with President Trump who
then talked to other more hardline members of his staff and went back on it but m
y understanding
of the outlines of the deal was that the president would get some funding toward a wall now even
the president has said it's not necessary going to be a brick and mortar from sea to shining sea
but basically I think the figure was 16 billion dollars or something toward 1/5 to start 1.5 okay
they were gonna give him money toward the quote we'll call it for discussions sake wall in return
they would be the protection for the dreamers and they felt they had that deal and then a
gain the
president some hardliners the administration Stephen Miller who some of you may be familiar
with the chief of staff John Kelly as well basically talking the president out of this deal
and that's one of the frustrations Chuck Schumer expressed was he likened it to negotiating what
we're dealing with jello just you know no there there are no spine there and do you think that's
why they finally came to a deal today because Trump was not involved in it I mean it was absent
since Frida
y it seemed to be a very conscious effort on the part of the White House to keep the
president distance him from all of this yeah and the great negotiators right doesn't seem to be
involved in the in the last 24 or 48 hours his schedule has been pretty light at least the one
that's but the White House has put out so that's been interesting to watch it on the wall there's
another California issue but you know there are eight border prototypes down by San Diego right
now that cost the right n
ow more than twenty million dollars put together earlier this month
Axios reported that Trump was going to go down and visit San Diego and look at those the border wall
prototypes of course he hasn't been to California yet even with the mudslides and the wildfires and
so forth so that's a it's gonna be interesting to see what kind of reception if he actually follows
through on that what kind of just go to Arizona and look I think there's a frustration too that
Republicans feel in that they
don't know what the president stand is going to be and they don't want
to go out on a limb there's some who may be old enough to remember in Washington they talk about
being VT you'd say no does anyone get that obscure reference early in the Clinton administration
in the first months they broached BTU tax as an energy saving incentive and a lot of Democrats
went on a limb voted for it I think they voted for it in the house Senate never even took it up so
basically a lot of Democrats went on
this limb the Senate sawed it off so in political parlance to be
BTU is to go out on a limb and have your own party sawed it off and I think a lot of Republicans
today think there's that risk because they they don't know where President Trump is gonna come
down Yukie yeah I mean the thing is with with with the Democrats and the President Trump and you know
he had the meeting last week where they reached an agreement and he says give me something where
the cameras were there I'll sign it an
d then when they went over back over there Graham and Schumer
went back over there they thought to meet with the president all of a sudden here are these hardline
is sitting in the room and the whole thing fell apart so I think the Republican Party is afraid
to let the president negotiate on his own because they're afraid he's gonna give away the store okay
well let's stick with the president for a bit here there's a lot to talk about when we kind of talked
about doing a roundup of Trump ne
ws there been these now well-publicized claims that Donald Trump
had paid off an adult-film performer to keep quiet about an affair one hundred and thirty thousand
dollars some are saying why isn't it's getting more attention others are saying why are you
making a big deal out of this first of all do you believe it should do you do you think it's there
well III do believe it again I mean firsthand knowledge but look the Wall Street Journal giving
credit where do report this very thoroughly
and they found that that the president's personal
attorney formed a limited liability corporation in Delaware with the express purpose of making
this payment so I think it's pretty to the extent that we live in a fact-based society or like to
think we do I think it's pretty airtight that this didn't in fact have any why didn't I mean III
do think it's rather remarkable and not to quote my own tweet but I did we'd had an observation
just saying I mean what kind of world we live and when like
the most buzzed-about story of the
day is not the president paying off a pornographic actress to keep an affair secret I mean it really
is sort of a testament to the times we're living in and how remarkable they are you you just can't
be shocked by something like this given his track record I mean when you hear something like this
you you say oh if you if heard this about Obama it would be like oh my god if you heard this about
Clinton it's like yeah I can see that yeah it doesn't surprise
you and that we're grading on a
curve that's that that's the same body it's that it just doesn't surprise you and and just it's
like he's gotten a lot of he's like the Teflon Don nothing to him think about it think about
it you know all the things that have happened over the campaign all the comments he made all
of the all the rhetoric that would sink anybody else he's still stand but see here's where here's
where I would I would disagree with you I don't think it's I mean look if the pres
ident was at 55
or 60 or 70% approval then but but I think it has stuck to him I think it has I mean here he is at
the lowest point any president has been at this stage of his presidency in the history of modern
polling so I think I think it has stuck with him I think what we have is sort of a bifurcated if you
will society where there's a certain percentage of the populace 36 37 % that could probably as 12
himself said he probably could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue he hasn't tried it and
these people
would stick by him and then there's a more a substantially larger segment of the electorate
that is used the president negatively so I do think that it has stuck to him and I think I'm
loathe to make predictions but when you look at history and track records in that sort of stuff a
president anywhere below 45% going into a midterm puts his party in a very very tough spot and
he's right around 37 38 he seems pretty much stuck there on the Stormy's Daniel step president
vice pre
sident pence was asked about this today and said that these are baseless accusations but I
mean who among us has not formed an LLC and gotten $130,000 for you know I mean how did he get the
payment if it was a baseless I thought it was another interesting tweet that Jenna Jameson who
is I've done a number of stories with regard to the porn industry she's like the superstar of porn
anyone how its turn his interview door a million times she tweeted this week that she defended
President Trump
saying hey I was in Beverly Hill at the Beverly Hills Hotel in a bikini he
came over to me and said he really admired my business acumen well how did he know who you were
he's very familiar with your work is your typical Commonwealth Club panel late night oh if if that
stormy Daniel story sort of morphs into more of the me to kind of story for Donald Trump because
this is hitting Hollywood really hard if any you watch the SAG Awards last night this is a a major
issues is not going away in H
ollywood I don't think it's going away in politics we're seeing
that in California and Gloria Allred certainly not gonna let it go away but there may be other
women out there that come forward with say not so you know positive stories about Donald Trump
as stormy Daniel I mean there there are there are there already are allegations that you know she
wasn't the last yeah you know that that he might even be involved with something now who knows we
should go in to explain that a little bit mor
e did any of you see Bill Maher on Friday night so his
first guest was Michael Wolfe who's written this fire and fury book that was this great tell-all
and Maura asked him if there was anything he had left out of the book or hasn't that hasn't gotten
attention and Michael Wolfe said basically the president is still having an affair or say it's
currently involved in an affair he said he didn't have enough proof to put it into the book but
toward the end of the book there's a paragraph where
if you read it knowing this as a possibility
you would probably be able to figure out who it is first of all Michael Wolf's kind of the kitty
Kelly of political tells these days how what credence should be give to a statement like that
what do you think professional journalist well you know he would eat when he got into the White
House by by the way the president's invitation and he was talking to all these people I think
the thought there was who's gonna do this great glowing portrait of t
he president and how great he
is and you know you you know if you make it if you flatter him at all you will you'll get some place
and so he was talking to people on the wreck they in recording and he has a recording to people
saying all these things about the president so the fact that he didn't put it in the book to me
gives it more credence than if he put it in there without any kind of evidence mark I would just
say I would use an analogy like this glass full of water you know I can fil
l it up and I can pour
it and it's gonna go to the top and then I can pour more I could pour 10 gallons of water and and
I think it's kind of like that with Donald Trump I think you just keep pouring and adding more
information and more information and I mean I don't know that it's it's gonna really tell people
a whole lot more than don't already know or just gonna be a lot more spill over I think mines are
pretty well made up and I guess we'll eventually get around to 2018 in the midterms
what's gonna
happen and to me that's funny I'm like what it's gonna come down to is where the energy and where
people try out I don't think there's I can think of very very few things and I'm not gonna even
joke about them that would really totally cause people do a 180 one direction or the other on
Donald Trump I think thing minds are pretty much made up I think anything more is like pouring more
water into this glass is just gonna spill over so you know there'll be more revelations along
the
way and I think a lot of them will confirm for people on both sides it'll confirm for people who
don't like him that he's lazy or promiscuous or whatever they don't like about him and for people
who do like him it'll just confirm that the media is out to get him and he can't get a fair shake
no matter what he does okay I want to talk a bit about Trump in the press and it's interesting
after I recently saw the movie The Post which retells the Pentagon Papers story from the point
of view
of the Washington Post and and afterward I found an old recording of the posts then publisher
Katharine Graham speaking to the Commonwealth Club this was in late 1972 and her address was about
the Nixon White House's war on the media in light of the Pentagon Papers and the still developing
Watergate scandal not too long ago senators Jeff Flake and Senator John McCain both on the same day
criticized the president's war on the meat of this president Trump's war on the media Senator McCain
an
d not bad I forget if it was in The Washington Post or something else and of course senator flake
from the floor of the Senate let's start with Carla I mean you've talked a lot about in the past
and written about you know White House pressure on the on the press how do you think first of all
what do you think the White House hope hopes to honestly get other than continuing the messaging
to its base or is that really all this is about I'm yeah I am I think that is what it's about to
watch th
ose press briefings every day which have become like must-see TV for me I don't know about
you you all but Sarah Sanders is just I mean it's it's kind of a shocker to watch her interactions
with the media in terms of lecturing them on what they should be asking in terms of controlling
them and not allowing them follow-up questions you had John Acosta from CNN say the other
day that he was actually shouted down in the Oval Office by Trump assistants who didn't want
him to ask a question to t
he he said it never happened before in his experience I think we're
seeing things with regard to markers on how the press the press gets treated not to say you know
look we know I've told the story here about Obama trying to control the media coverage when I was
at the Chronicle we've had issues with the Trump campaign too but and presidents and political
figures all along have tried to control and shape their own media coverage that's nothing new but
but the the that the the the increasing
efforts to control the media and to keep them at arm's
length remember that President Trump still has not had a full press conference he didn't have an
end-of-the-year press conference two traditional one so right now reporters are left with throwing
him a question as he goes to marine one and of course not getting much follow-up there's no real
in-depth discussion unless he chooses to sit down as he did with The Wall Street Journal or he has
with the New York Times but the fact is there's
there's no effort to open this up and to have no
press conferences full press conferences in his first year is it's kind of amazing to me and and
I don't know the media needs to push back on that I mean they've got Sarah Huckabee Sanders help I
mean she is their best ally yeah yeah I mean I've never seen I've never seen a press secretary just
lecture the media to this extent and to tell them who they should rely on I mean she does that she
says you know you shouldn't rely on other people o
ther sources in this room I've heard her say that
she cuts off the follow-up questions there's there was a really aggressive effort not to answer one
of one of the favorite phrases I've answered that numerous times well you never have answered the
question at once I've got friends who who work in the White House press room and you know we had
actually I'm a member of sag-aftra I'm on the national board we have a broadcaster in committee
and we had the Stephen important Oy at one of our meet
ings in which he got up there and we had like
covering the White House and the stories he told about what goes on in there and you kind of see
it when when you watch the briefings people are asking questions on the expressions on their face
yes like they're just it's it's this has not ever been seen before to have a press secretary get up
there and usually lecture you lie to your face and continue to lie and that's the thing that gets me
about it where is it going to end I don't think it's
going to end I think it's going to continue
this way all the way up until he's out of office because in their mind you know the press is the
enemy and they're treating it like the enemy boy I have a lot of thoughts let me let me let me edit
them down some of this is is not new I mean I've I know it's hard to tell with with my youthfulness
full head of dark hair I have but I would know this for a long time you know long enough that
I have been yelled at I've been spit at I've had fists shake
n in my face I've been heckled I've
been called all sorts of terrible names none of which bother me that part is not new I think when
you have a president leading this sort of attack on the media as an institution to a point where
you have reporters who literally needed to have a protective escort at events we've sort of taken
things to a whole other I think dangerous level it's sort of an inside joke I'm covered you got
a folks you guys you ladies you gentlemen might remember a fellow name
d Allie North who ran for
Senate it would have been 1994 and I was there and I covered it and he had a stock line where
he would talk about the Washington the New York crimes in the Washington compost and you know he
would get laughs from the audience and it all turn around look back at the press corps and and then
literally after the event they'd clear out and all I know would come back and talk with people and
just be as friendly as could be in other words it was sort of like we were all
in on this joke
we were props and we knew he was appealing to a certain part of his base it was it was all a good
joke and it doesn't feel like a joke anymore and I would simply conclude by saying you know I've
done this my entire adult life I've done this since before I was an adult and I really strongly
believe in what it is that we do and there are bad journalists just like there are bad cops and bad
moderators not you bad nurses bad doctors bad you but there are some really lazy bad poo
r reporters
and but in the main I would say most of them are honest and are hardworking and sacrificed
tremendously small things like missing your kid's birthday or an anniversary or family events
to be a thing and big things I don't know anyone personally whose died but I have colleagues who
have been blown up who have suffered grievous harm and I know a few professions other than police
officer and fireman who run to danger and that's what journalists do and I honor them and I think
we s
hould honor those people who do that because ultimately we do it for you we do it because we
believe in our system of government and that in a representative government like we have the best
citizenry and electorate is an informed one and we work to make that happen at great personal expense
and sacrifice you know American journalists really have the privilege of not having to worry about
their lives easily we've only had a couple of journalists in the United States killed since 1976
Don Bo
lles in Arizona who was blown up and then Chauncey Bailey in 2007 over there in the streets
of Oakland I knew Chauncey and I was part of the Chauncey Bailey project that investigated his
death and the reason why we did that was because if they can kill any journalists they can kill all
journalists and if you can't stop the message by killing the journalists so I think it's very
important what's happening right now is that we're not being killed per se but they're trying
to choke off our our
industry they're trying to choke off what we do by basically just ignoring
this and belittling us and telling us that we have no respect and getting their base to believe that
everything we say is alive and by the way when we talk about the base of the president I did the
numbers 27 percent of registered voters voted for Trump not all of them voted right 27 percent
of the registered voters voted for Trump twenty percent of the population that's the base but
we've given that base so much cr
edit because this vocal but you know that's 80% if not his basement
we need to stand up someone in the audience asks isn't the biggest thing that Trump has to fear
that the Democrats gain control of the house and used Muller's report to impeach him in 2019 well
look IIIi think if Democrats take control or one of the other chambers you know subpoenas gonna
be flying like you know snowflakes in January I mean hell hath no fury like a congressional
committee of the opposition party with subpoe
na power right they the Benghazi thing went on for
years and years and years yeah I think that is a real real possibility the president has to be
looking at yeah I mean I look at Adam Schiff who is the ranking demo in the House Intelligence
Committee he is already all over the tube every day of the week I music incredibly effective
in terms of making the argument and he's a former prosecutor from Los Angeles and I think
somebody to watch in California politics but I mean he has really made
his name on being a very
sort of super smart but super strategic guy when it comes to the prosecutor yeah going going going
out and in really making the case here and I think look all of the seats the Dems need a third of
them in California to flip the house and and that's where you're looking at of those of the
17 Republican seats in California there are 64 Democratic candidates there's no lack of people
who want a piece of the action or think that that these seats are possible to flip and
there are
a number of packs right that now including you know Tom Steyer and other people throwing lots
of money at the idea of flipping those seats particularly the seven most vulnerable seats in
California which are the districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election that are
now held rally Republicans so that's why you've seen folks like Daryl I said that the richest guy
in the house a pull out of the race down there in Southern California Edie Royce who was you know
a su
per powerful guy on Capitol Hill pulled out whether we see anyone else pullout it's gonna be
interesting but there's there they are definitely vulnerable and California is definitely a key
to the flippin the house he talked about you know I think if I was a Republican House member
in California I'd be very nervous especially if I walked around California on Saturday yes
obvious marches because the thing about what the message from from the women that I was talking
to on Saturday and excludi
ng Betty a the State Controller is that you know it's not enough to
just you know to put your voice out there we need you we need you to vote we need to run for
office and there are women who are running for office and I gotta tell you if her so energized
that's something I love Devon Nunez I'd be shaking in my boots especially the way he is treated
you just be a dude Judiciary Committee and now with the latest special secret report he's he's
put together that says that the FBI was corrupt
during the Clinton investigation and in the end
me and the in the and Muller and everything else I'd be very very very scared and just to upend
a couple thoughts real quick to what college who talked about retirements the suit the significance
of retirements are there's about thirty plus now and the significance is that even in a wave year
even in a blowout year something like eighty eight percent of incumbents are re-elected okay so it
is much easier for either party to win an open seat th
en a seat even even in a wave year it's
very difficult to be an income but that's the significance of these thirty plus open seas and
the other point that I think is important if you you know we have to look at everything with a huge
shaker of salt because Donald Trump broke all the rules that we thought we knew one understood
about politics that said if you go back the civil war the average pick up for the out party
in the midterm is I believe thirty three seats that's significant but even
more significant is
if you look at what happened in 2017 in off-year elections there was something like seventy plus
off your elections House seats legislative seats Democrats over perform consistently by quite
a bit we just saw this in Wisconsin a district lead Emma Kratz haven't won in years they just won
so you know over over performance says tremendous energy as of today things could change but as
of today tremendous energy on the Democratic side and that that's why there's this talk a
bout
a potential wave and I think the more we get into the year the Muller investigation is not going
to stop now there are some things that could happen I'm hearing that Trump is not happy with
John Kelly he may fire Kelly put sessions in as his chief of staff and then put a new they put a
new agey in who would basically try to scuttle the investigation I mean that's the that's the thing
that the if you're if you're concerned about our country that's something that ought to concern
you be
cause Muller is obviously getting somewhere you don't get the former Security Council a
National Security Advisor to plead guilty to a crime that's just crazy I mean so he's got what
four indictments two convictions and we don't know half of what he has and I if I was in the White
House I'd be very nervous I understand they are very nervous but we'll see I wanted to move on to
a local story but as with every story about San Francisco we assume the entire world is interested
in it actually t
he the later in the evening of our last week two week program in December Mayor Ed
Lee passed away unexpectedly this has kicked off obviously a much earlier than expected race
than to succeed Lee as the mayor of the city first I wanted to talk a bit about Lee's legacy
I mean Carla maybe start with you I mean how do you think Ed Lee in his years as mayor is going
to be remembered well you know ed Lee never want or never originally set out to be mayor he was an
administrator who took on a job
in a city that was changing very very quickly technology the issue
of homelessness affordability income inequality all hit San Francisco at the same time and I
think I went to at least Memorial at City Hall here you know a lot of people talked about him
as really a decent you know not at one of these negative flame-throwing kind of politicians that
we see didn't maybe the last of his breed in that respect McKee will be remembered for things like
the warrior Stadium and some of the the chan
ges we've seen on the city skyline but also you know
there is this issue of homelessness and other issues the city's so grappling with we are the
gateway to the Pacific all those issues are what San Francisco is going to be about in the future
so that's why who handles this job now is going to be an important you know take on a very important
role and I think that's why you're gonna see a tug of war over what happens this is a major city
high-profile city and it's probably the lead state of
resistance city to Donald Trump so that's where
some of this is going to be a Throwdown to Donald Trump and we're already seeing that when you have
the into the acting mayor London breed who's a you know the city's first female african-american
mayor somebody who kind of falls into the Willie Brown footsteps certainly knows him knew him for
many years you know Gavin Newsom is another one who of a sort of handpicked by Willie Brown in
a sense of the way he be he got into politics so Willie
Brown stamped is on on what's going on
now but the question is is that going to continue here in San Francisco you've already got a
bunch of folks who want in on this job and I think Mark Leno the former state senator who
has a was had a stellar record up in Sacramento was considered at a just a landmark legislature
when it came to issues like same-sex marriages and on health care issues he definitely has a very
strong bid for this office but you've got others Jane Kim Angela Alioto this is
not going to be
I think there's gonna be a drama going forward we'll see if London breed is able to hold on to
this job or she's going to be challenged to be interim mayor with an interim mayor I mean I was
just gonna say that the mayor of San Francisco is kind of you know like the mayor of Los Angeles
- they're both such important cities nationally and they're both you know outsized in in their
economic and cultural influence I mean it you kind of automatically become some sort of a natio
nal
democratic figure well you know San Francisco has has a history going back to Hiram Johnson really
when you look at sort of some of the the Giants of California politics Hiram Johnson on up through
Diane Feinstein Kamla Harris the front-runner for governor I don't know if he's going to be
or not Gavin Newsom Nancy Pelosi Willie Brown and on and on and on I mean it's it's interesting
I've written a lot over the years about about San Francisco and it has this amazing track record of
prod
ucing national leaders but it's it's such a confounding place it's it's physically beautiful
it's charming it's also a train wreck you know you you go into some restaurant and spend $20
for a bowl of soup and step outside and there's human waste there and people literally shooting up
drugs it's it's the most confounding crazy weird sort of dichotomy I don't know any place that
has such extremes in such close proximity and and and I sort of wrote about this in the column
and ended by saying
I mean anyone who could solve this anyone who could make San Francisco live up
to all of its potential and make it his beautiful place to live all over for everyone deserves to
be not just mayor but king or queen in California about you asked about his legacy and I didn't
I didn't cover City Hall so but but I tended to do a lot of events that he was at covering
events like on Saturday and and I could and and on holidays and I can tell you with certainty
that he sucks at carving turkeys a gl
ide Memorial Church it the mayor and the fire chief there and
they would get on the cameras they couldn't do that he was very bad when it came to going out to
these public works things and hammering nails and things like that but the guy was he wasn't he was
an average loveable guy you know and like you said he wasn't he wasn't a true politician he was an
administrator you know who reluctantly took the job but I think he I think he'll be remembered
as somebody who he got everybody's respect
I mean sure people didn't some folks aren't gonna
like you no matter what but I think on the whole people will love a respect and miss Headley well
on that note let's move on but actually stay with state local and that is the Trump administration
has continued to announce plans to crack down on so-called sanctuary cities and including
promising or threatening criminal charges against the leaders of sanctuary cities so could
we see London breed or Libby sure we already see we already seen L
ibby Schaaf and London breed
basically Throwdown to President Trump to say yeah bring it on a Libby Schaaf has said I will
go to jail for my constituents in Oakland that got her a lot of attention on Twitter and I think
the mayor's a lot of the Democratic mayor's in California will do the same and of course our
Attorney General Xavier Becerra has filed like two dozen lawsuits related to Trump but on
this issue of actual you know upping the the rates the ice rates in California this is where
I think the the whole issue of immigration could end up really being hurting again in California
Republicans have already been hurt on a number of levels but you know when you got headlines
of stories which you've seen the last couple of weeks which is a guy who lived in County in
in the United States for forty years and knows no other countries being deported and separated
and you got those videos of him getting torn away from his family at the airport or the caregiver
who's the only per
son who could handle the the the disabled kid and he's getting deported these
kind of human stories I think they they they tell they tell the story but they also affect people
were you know these dreamers and and a lot of these immigrants are not strangers to those of us
in California they are like our kids friends our neighbors you know that of people who work with us
this isn't some weird concept for us in California so I think this issue is is it presents a real
problem for California Re
publicans what when you talk about up in these ice raids you saw Jeff
Denham Republican this week say way we want to you know we want to do something to deal with this we
don't we don't want to just just to have you know free-for-all here and I that's this is going to
be where the rubber hits the road I think on this immigration issue you go forward I think these
stories these human stories are Heartbreakers in a lot of ways and that you know people are
watching those stories and a lot of t
hem saying this is not the America that I know that you would
take somebody who's lived here their entire life and throw them to a country that they've where
they've never been before and some of the stories of people is this happened to or we just had to
start about a UC Berkeley kid who was in detention in LA for three weeks in a and he's completely
legal those kind of stories are I think very problematic for the Trump administration and it
could really hurt Republicans here in California
I would venture to say there are any number of
democratic mayors and politicians maybe in few Republicans like Kevin Faulkner who would love to
be frog-marched in handcuffs out of City Hall by a trump Justice Department official and you know for
that same reason I think Dianne Feinstein it was it was a wonderful gift and in-kind contribution
when Donald Trump tweeted about sneaky Dianne Feinstein I think I did more to help her with the
Democratic base than probably anything she's done in t
he last six months yeah well in California
itself is a sanctuary state so maybe they can Frog March Governor Brown this week held a phone press
conference and basically reminded business owners that if they offer information to immigration
officials there's not public information they may be 72 at $10,000 fine that's Assembly Bill
450 that just passed so he put out that message to you know the California is drawing the line
on how much to assist on this on this issue and of course the Senat
e bill the sanctuary state
bill written by Kevin de Leon is another aspect of that so you know I tell you that we talked
about the mayor's going to jail we talked about the governor going to jail this issue I'll go
back to the dreamers for a second I mean we've got 200,000 in California you know somebody that
I know she's not she's kind of a friend she worked in in in the journal she's a television producer
she went public last year when Trump threatened to get rid of the program and she sa
ys you know
I'm I'm a da medaka you know and I'm worried and I've talked with her last summer and she says
the uncertainty for her is tough but what she really worries about is her parents were both
undocumented one works in construction her mom works cleaning houses and what happens if she gets
status what all these people were undocumented who are here who came in as kids if you make them
legal what happens to their the rest of their family what happens to their parents cuz now
you know
you're not talking about 800-thousand you're talking about probably you figure a
mother a mother and father you're talking about 2.5 million people so I think that's one of
the one of the reluctance one of the hesitations the Republicans have to approve anything like this
because and that's why they're trying to get rid of chain migration to say it's illegal that you
can't do that because that once you legalize the daca kids what about their parents well look
there's a reason why this count
ry has not had comprehensive immigration reform since 1986 and
who signed into law what was widely knowledge been amnesty billed Ronald Reagan times changed politic
has changed well this being our because our what would have been our first program of the year
getting cancelled this is now our first program of the year so I just wanted to do a little bit
of prognostication our predictions or what the hell so few questions for each of you who in the
political world do you think is a person to
watch in 2018 and why Carla yeah someone I'm gonna start
with Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti because you know a lot people talk about Kamala Harris being
somebody to watch in the 2020 presidential race but I think Eric Garcetti is somebody to watch to
over the weekend he spoke at the Women's March in Los Angeles to 600,000 people I heard he blew
people away he he does he did their what he's been doing up and down helping and around the
country by the way in couple of months which is he ta
lks about Los Angeles as a city state as a
country comparing the statistics of Los Angeles to you know any number of international economies and
he's running a very big show in Los Angeles he's a great speaker you know he's I think 46 years
old so he's a young Democrat who's you know a lot of Democrats are hungry for somebody who's
in the next generation who represents some kind of promise for the party and where it's going to
go to try to figure aside from the fact that he's the first Jewi
sh mayor of Los Angeles he's half
Mexican he's part Italian what so I think he's you know right now he's kind of a dark horse in
this whole presidential race but he could end up you know somewhere in the in the top you know five
or so ten in terms of people to watch in that race so he's definitely somebody I'm watching I have to
go with Adam Schiff obviously he's very competent of what he does see being a prosecutor I'd love
to be in there when he's asking questions I'm wondering whether or
not the people he's asking
questions over like Jeff Sessions who got nervous when Kamala Harris questioned him because if the
Democrats take back the house I can see him as becoming the chair of the Judiciary Committee and
if he's the chair other just I can't say that word if he's the chair of that committee all hell will
break loose when it comes to the investigations if Muller hasn't already played his whole cards I'll
go with John Chung who's running for governor and it's sort of an als
o-ran I guess because I
remember 1998 when Al checky and Jane Harman running and there was this guy Gray Davis who
just had no prayer in the world he'd been around the block a million zillion times no one took him
seriously I remember in fact we used this as the anecdote sort of a reconstructive how he did it
I remember he went to lunch and and you know it's like okay well fine we'll have lunch with gray
he's not going anywhere he's not gonna win but well it's just out of courtesy we'll hav
e lunch
with a guy and we walked him out into the elevator and and he looked at me and my colleague you said
I mean I'm gonna win this primary I'm gonna win it by 14 points in the door shut we've turned to
each other burst out laughing and of course he wanted by 18 points the dynamic is different
we have a top two but the reason I say maybe John Chung is just because you know crazier things
have happened two guys beat each other out the guy who's just sort of you know on the sideline slips
in we've seen that so I'm not making predictions because I don't make predictions but if I'm
gonna watch anybody I'd keep an eye on John Chiang very good a story or a topic you would
like to see get more attention this year I'll go with that one I would like to see this every
year in every election I think we and by we I'm talking about people cover politics spend too much
time talking to our fellow panelists talking to political consultants I would like to see more
people going out and ta
lking to voters and and yes that does mean Trump voters in small-town
America but it means women in suburbs and it means african-americans and it means Latinos get
out and talk to voters because you know very often were sort of captivated with this bottle and we're
talking about this bottle and the whole time you know they're looking at the napkin and we never
we never really pay attention because we're so busy talking amongst ourselves about the bottle
so I would like to see more voices of
voters and get out there and actually talk to people good
Bob I think it's the number of women candidates who are running for office and and the fear that
they are putting into the hearts of of incumbents we've already seen it happen in Wisconsin we
saw it happen in Virginia Virginia would have even got the legislature had it not been for the
bad coin flip but I think there's something to be said and one of the stories I did I talked to
some women I said look do you think if women a bit mo
re when I've been and been in the Senate we'd
have a shutdown and they said that's what you're not we know how to work together we don't pound
our chests we don't have the testosterone that comes in the room that gets in the way of things
and we get things done and I can't disagree with that I mean how many men here will bit that they
run their household I know I don't know I mean I think having more women would actually be better
for the country at this point and they are ready to lead you
know and I can see that actually
happening so I think we really need to take pay attention to that you know - an economic
issue I think it's the effects of automation and technology on the job market because this
goes exactly to the folks that Trump they voted for Trump and I think it goes to you know what
happens to the over 50 worker in this country and these are some of the folks who feel most worried
about what's going to happen with when it comes to jobs we know that you know they're
developing
self-driving cars they're doing their testing right out on the Embarcadero as we speak they're
developing ways to create fast food without human interaction here in the Bay Area robotic security
guards these are all jobs that millions of people hold in this country and and we're gonna see
in the next 20 years a lot of people are gonna lose their jobs and particularly over-50s are
gonna are going to have trouble transitioning and somebody's got to address this issue and we
don't
hear a lot of in-depth talk about how are we going to train kids to work in this market and
how are we going to train older people to take on new jobs I think that's going to be critical in X
election very good now last question briefly I'm interested in how they'll answer this what's your
advice to President Trump to survive this year duck that's brief Bob I mean take a chill
pill you know stay off if you stayed off Twitter I think its approval rating is so low
although he says it's in the
mid high 50s and I think it's you know President Trump you have to
understand that you know watching Fox and Friends is not really serving you right the people on your
administration that are pulling you so far to the right that you can't even see to the left they're
not serving you well that's not what this country is about and it'll be your downfall Carl I mean
I'd say hold that press conference in the sense of I covered a trump and we've mentioned this
before when he ran for president i
n 1999 as a foreign party candidate they got to see him close
up and spend a lot of time with him you could see this entertaining interesting fascinating
guy that guy is the now lost in this thing people don't hear from him directly at length if
there's no collusion if there's no you know issues on immigration if he wants to speak directly
to the people let him sit I think it could do him the most good to sit down with the press and
take the questions Vladimir Putin did it for two hours lat
e late last December I think he Trump
ought to take a lesson from whatever probably and and answer every question that's out there
very good some good questions from the audience and I apologize we don't have time to get to all
of them I do want to read one of them because it was a point that directly pertains to the 130
thousand dollar payment that stormy Daniels allegedly received and they point out that common
cause has filed a complaint saying that that that it is in essence an illegal
contribution or an
unregistered contribution or whatever to the Trump campaign and so that's going to be working
its way through whatever regulatory body handle that listen we will have more news quiz questions
and it'll be our sixth anniversary week to week program and Thursday February 8th which by the way
we'll find out maybe the government's in shutdown again right back here at the Commonwealth Club
thanks to our panelists today Bob Butler mark bareback and Carla Marinucci everyone comi
ng out
today and everyone watch me online have a bingo
Comments