German streets have been angry places recently. Farmers’ protests against fuel costs in
part turned against the whole government. Public transport workers keep going on strike. And more than a million people
have been out in the cold to say NO to extreme right groups getting
a foothold in mainstream politics. By German standards - where stability is sexy
- the country appears in inner in turmoil. A country that seems to be
losing confidence in itself. And its ability to create a brighter fu
ture. For the first time we are seeing
a majority of people believe that Germany is past its prime, that
our best years are behind us.. The latest study of Germans’ biggest
fears has polled previously unseen insecurity levels about the future and
the ability of the government to shape it. But Germans are also generally unhappy. The latest EU survey on life satisfaction,
shows that Germans are among the unhappiest in the bloc - Only Bulgarians are more
dissatisfied with their standard of li
fe . One gets the sense that living here in
Germany isn’t really worth it anymore. All of this is putting German Chancellor
Olaf Scholz under immense pressure . At 20% - his popularity has hit the lowest
level ever recorded for a serving Chancellor. Yet instead of a quick fix, Scholz
has a tall order for the nation: That we manage to remain an industrialized
country, stay ahead economically with the most modern technology, and protect
the climate at the same time. The days when Germans cou
ld
expect all of this to be obvious, and not cost them anything
personally - appear to be over. Now people are feeling anxious
as they brace for change. So is Germany really doing as
badly as many people feel it is? Or has the status of Europe's
biggest economy made Germans over-sensitive to the growing
pains of necessary transition? When farmers started blocking the streets of
Berlin at the end of 2023, over fuel prices, many city-dwellers seemed to sympathize. A general fear of cuts was
in the air because
the government had made a huge mistake. Scholz’ Cabinet had put 60 billion euros earmarked
for pandemic recovery, into the general budget. Germany’s highest court ruled
this was unconstitutional - and blew a huge hole in the federal budget. Suddenly Germany was strapped for
cash - a feeling that resonated with many people’s personal experience. Many people feel they simply can’t
cover everything with their money, and that leads to this dissatisfaction. I’m pretty shocked
that there is
such a high level of dissatisfaction. They’re making savings and everything
is getting more expensive for people. There’s a sense that this immediate discomfort is a precursor to more fundamental
transition coming down the line. The mood in Germany is very unusual. We haven’t
seen anything like it for decades. An extreme sense of anxiety, over whether Germany is even
still good at things it used to be good at. They are worried about change. Change is never
easy, and confront
ed with a situation where people say the economic model of the country
has to change, a lot of people are nervous. And they are dissatisfied with the Government: When Finance Minister Christian Lindner tried to
talk with protesting farmers, he was shouted down. And the opinion polls are looking bad for all
three parties that together form the government. At the end of January, polls put those governing
parties, Scholz’s Social Democrats SPD, the Greens and the pro-business liberal
Free Demo
crat FDP, third, fourth and fifth. In first place was the Conservative CDU - former
chancellor Angela Merkel’s party , followed by the far right Alternative for Germany, the AfD.
They have often been described as a protest party. Their polling numbers
suggest MANY Germans want to protest. They’re frustrated with their personal situation
but also the overall political establishment. That’s a sentiment that feeds into the
narrative of populists around the world. The link between dissatisfactio
n and right
wing populism is an established pattern. If anything, Germany is late in
reaching the kind of levels of public dissatisfaction that delivered right
wing populists like Donald Trump in the US, Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orban
or Italy’s Giorgia Meloni to power. Germany has been shielded from that
extreme polarization, also politically. And unfortunately is now catching up
and it's struggling to deal with that. The far right AfD has never been stronger. Nationwide it has rea
ched 20 per cent, making
it - as we’ve seen - the second strongest party. Its leaders Alice Weidel and Tino
Chrupalla have turned it into a nationwide destination for protest votes..
But then it was revealed that high-level AfD members took part in a conference
planning mass deportations. For Germany’s center, the echoes of
the Nazis were too loud to ignore, and more than a million
protested on one weekend alone. European Elections in June will show
whether the anti-AfD mood will hold, or
if German dissatisfaction is stronger. So Germans are feeling down about
their economy and their future. They see cuts and rising prices, and
on top of that, a resurgent far right. Let’s look at some data to
see whether there’s reason to worry or whether German Angst is
getting the better of German society. The facts show that Germany still
has impressive economic stamina. It maintains its place as the
fourth largest economy in the world. Germany is doing economically well in
absolute ter
ms. It has done very well over the last 10-15 years.
We have record employment. Unemployment is way below the EU average. And Germany’s stock market
keeps breaking new records: And yet this doesn’t seem to be
trickling down to people on the street The mood is much worse than the
economic and social reality. Or is it a gut feeling of what’s to come? Take a look at the predictions for
the near future, and the negative mood doesn’t seem so pessimistic.
Of the twenty most influential economies i
n the World, Germany has the
second worst growth prediction for 2024. And business confidence is down
as well. A key survey of some 9000 German companies is pointing South.
Add to that a whole list of challenges: We know we are facing years
with a shrinking workforce. We know we need change to decarbonize
change for climate protection. We know we need digitization in the health
sector and in the economy as a whole. These are challenges we know we need to
invest more into our infrastructure
. But we haven't come up with a convincing
plan now to address these issues. So Germans’ anxiety for the
future is NOT all in their heads. Many expect their personal prosperity to be challenged - and the data
suggests they might be right. But it’s not all about the economy… I think that Germany is suffering from a lack
of convincing responses to the challenges ahead. There is a budget hole and taxes
increase or subsidies are cut, These two things create
conflicts and disappointments. Germa
ns want a remedy for the
economic pain they fear ahead. But what’s needed could go beyond
what any doctor can prescribe. Over the pandemic and the
crisis over the past two years, everyone has to come to expect the government
to step in and basically guarantee income. The population gets the message we will
shield you from all these crises from everything that happens.
And no government in the world can meet those expectations. Germany is already spending around half
of the national budget
on social issues. And a debt brake stops the
government borrowing any more money. So Germans cannot expect to be cushioned from the
next economic downturn. They have been warned. We will not be able to secure our prosperity long-term by simply taking on new debt
and distributing the money to businesses. So if the government can’t find money to throw at the problem - how might it try to
at least reduce people’s anger? Most would agree that Scholz’s government is failing to give Germans a sens
e of
where these hard times might lead to. He told the angry farmers that those
cuts would have to come sometime. If every subsidy remains forever, if we
keep to our positions 100 percent, if we do everything like always,
then we won’t move forward. What he hasn’t done so far is directly talk to the
wider public about their fears of a poorer future. I think it would be necessary to be
more honest with people and tell them, look, we are in a challenging situation. Instead, his weekly video
messages have
repeatedly focused on how to tackle the far right. Let me say it very clearly: Far Right
extremists are attacking our democracy. Never again Dictatorship. The criticism is mounting. It is really a problem and a mistake by the
government and including the chancellor. And this is not communicating a vision
for the future for the next 5 to 10 years. That perceived lack of vision is partly due
to his lack of room for political maneuver. The three-way coalition the chancellor is le
ading, struggles to get through a
whole week without fighting. The party leaders meet more often to defuse
a crisis than to work on future strategies. I think the government really does have
a problem in that it is very divided. A heating reform that was so badly managed they
were forced to scrap it, and not one but TWO failed budgets have shattered public confidence
in their ability to deliver long term policies. Voters seem to have an
appetite for some Real Politik It’s just gonna be som
e kind
of compromise, unfortunately. People need to be told what’s
coming. That these crises have an impact and things can’t stay as they are. Instead of discussing the big issues that
are about to hit Germans with a transition to a greener, more digitized,
less labor intensive economy – Olaf Scholz Coalition, and the people
they govern, are stuck in the here and now and with a government working hard
to survive another day in politics. I would say, Germany needs to focus on
its strengths
. It’s about creating trust. Germany is not the sick man of Europe - the
situation is not as bad as many people feel it . But society can also no longer gloss over the profound changes that are
already reshaping its economy. The coming weeks and months will
be crucial for Olaf Scholz to do more than just hold his coalition together. He needs to soothe German Angst with a
big dose of confidence that he can provide stability. If he fails, populists may gain
even more ground with simplistic pr
omises.
Comments