What is Positive EV Sports Betting Strategy? Making Money Explained

Positive EV betting strategy is the most  profitable sports betting method around anyone can do it calculations are simple and I can prove  it because I've made fortunes using it myself I'll break the strategy down in layman's terms explain  where it's most profitable why it beats other strategies and share a real example by the end of  this video it works regardless of the sports book or where you are in the world so what exactly  is positive EV betting strategy EV is short for expected value w

hich is the term originating from  probability Theory it signifies the anticipated return on a bet or a trade quantitative analysts  in the financial sector often use it as a metric for value now in sports betting calculating the  BET's expected value is simple it's the cumulative total of every possible outcomes payoffs  multiplied by its likelihood of winning let's take a football match between West Ham and Chelsea as  an example if the Betfair Sportsbook offers odds of 2.8 for the draw you pr

ofit by one pound 80 for  every one pound steak assuming that the match ends in the drawer of course however if either team  wins you lose your one pound stake so the EV for this bet is calculated by the probability of the  draw multiplied by 1.8 added to the probability of the match ending in either team winning multiplied  by negative one so in this instance it means that the draw rods have a negative expected value of 23  Pence or 23.28 now I know some people don't like doing the maths so the

re's a free EV calculator  online here that will do it all for you just like this one so when you work out the EV for the  majority of bets on a sports book their value is negative because of course includes the house  Edge ensure the bigger the negative EV figure the more they're ripping you up however plus EV  odds are available every single day I'll show you where I went shortly but as an illustration  if the draw in our example was priced at 4.0 it would become a positive EV bet the simplest

  method to determine a BET's probability in sports betting is by Consulting the betting exchanges  or short books like Pinnacle betting exchanges make their money from commissions on winnings  after the event has been settled so it's a free market where prices are controlled by supply and  demand with no margin plus the sharpest mines in sports betting play big on the exchanges their  cumulative knowledge makes pricing incredibly accurate especially when it's close to the event  start so if you

've heard of the wisdom of crowds or law of large numbers effectively this is  what I'm talking about here making money with positive EV betting is reliant on slow updates  and miscalculated odds now don't worry this isn't a matched betting or Arbitrage video but  promotional offers can create positive EV bet bookmakers regularly offer short-term positive  bonuses in an attempt to hook in long-term losers and degenerates if you're going to use  them make sure you do it effectively there's a sepa

rate video on that Linked In description down  below now to be profitable we need to focus our sports betting on positive EV bets only let's  delve into a theoretical scenario to illustrate how positive EV betting performs in contrast  to Arbitrage betting for example the results might surprise some of you so let's assume we've  got an under over 2.5 goals Market on a football match where both outcomes are equal there's a 50  chance of either outcome happening they're evenly matched this means t

hat the fair odds would be  2.0 in decimals evens in fractions or plus 100 in American odds however for argument's sake let's  say there's an odds discrepancy with the over 2.5 goals priced at 3.0 whereas the under 2.5 goals  a price of 1.8 if we're using positive EV betting strategy it's staking 20 pound then the focus  would be on the over 2.5 goals bet because this is where the plus EV selection is at 3.0 we would  need to place our 20 pound stake on overs at 3.0 and totally disregard the alt

ernate betting line  now if the BET wins we secure 40 pounds profit and if it doesn't we lose our 20 pound state  to understand the expected value of this bet we multiply the probability of Happening by the  potential payout so 50 multiplied by 40 pounds plus 50 multiplied by negative 20 pounds is equal  to 20 pounds minus 10 pounds giving us a positive EV of 10 pounds for this bet again here's an EV  calculator confirming the numbers but by way of comparison if we were to rerun the simulation 

approaching it as an Arbitrage better it would look a little bit like this the arbitrage bettor  would split the stakes placing seven pounds 50 on overs at 3.0 and 12 pounds 50 on unders at 1.8  when you look at the respective payouts of either of those lines if it should win it leaves a total  profit of two pounds 50. once the initial 20 pound stake has been deducted significantly less than  when using the positive EV betting strategy now if that's confused you you might want to watch  that las

t minute or so again and look at those calculations so there's no question positive EV  betting is a lot more profitable than Arbitrage although the obvious downfall is the short-term  variance it results an unfortunate run of bad variants with results can be a little bit testing  if you haven't got the nerve for it although long term the numbers don't light and I can prove  it with my own profits as you'll see in just a second aside from the short-term variation in  results there are several ot

her beneficial factors to consider when comparing positive EV betting  and Arbitrage sure Arbitrage betting offers a risk-free Avenue where you profit every single  time regardless of the outcome but it's worth considering that twice the amount of bets need to  be placed and the second hedge bet often reduces the overall expected value you can hedge weave  a better exchange where the odds are on offer are likely to represent a neutral EV figure  although there's Commission on your exchange winni

ngs The Only Exception being if you can get  0 commission via a service like odds monkey the most favorable options depend on your own risk app  type but factually speaking positive EV betting strategy is the optimal approach when viewed  in the context of long-term frequent betting as I've said the return is just so much better  now there's a couple of ways to maximize your profits and reduce risk with positive EV strategy  I'll show you some solid examples in a second but first the shortcut to

enhancing your profits and  reducing risk the first golden rule is to only bet on positive EV best and when you do stay in line  with the Positive EV margin the bigger the value margin the bigger we should state so where can  you find plus EV bets easily there are multiple places every day typically the best opportunities  are around the speed at which odds change and the lower quality betting events where pricing is  harder for the bookmakers to quantify and keep track of an example of lower q

uality might be the  foreign low quality football leads and ancillary markets like under servers goals corners and  cards an example of speed at which odds change might be the horse racing markers or Greyhound  betting again Lower quality racing throws up the best opportunities for such price discrepancies  especially in the final minutes counting down to the post personally I prefer to focus on  the fast changing odds now there are several software tools that can help you do this although  ther

e are two main options first you have tools that identify Miss price betting odds if you're  in the United States or Australia odd sham will help you out and if you're in the UK odds monkey  is best now unfortunately wherever you are the platforms can't fully automate the process for you  the sports books just wouldn't allow it they hate people using sophisticated tools like this after  all plus EV betting has a mathematical advantage over the house and they know it however the  tools can show y

ou exactly where positive EV opportunities exist in real time here's a couple  of positive EV bets highlighted by oddsjam on the screen and a bunch of others Gods monkey now the  second option is my personal favorite you'll need to be quicker when doing it although the positive  expected values are far higher when using this method particularly on high speed better markets  like the Greyhounds now I share my personal bet in history with over 6 000 pound profit from one  account and explain the f

ull strategy here in the end screen so please go and check out that video  now thanks for watching I'll see you next time