So today we're going to take a step back from the
NBA and talk about the NCAA with the March Madness Tournament currently underway this year I picked
Houston to win the tournament but I definitely started sweating my chances of winning my bracket
pool after Houston's close win over A&M on Sunday night one thing I looked up following Houston's
win was what year are their starting players in in school reason being well years ago one of the
biggest upsets that shocked me was when the 2018 to9
Duke Blue Devils lost to Michigan State in
the Elite 8 we're talking about one of just two teams in NCA history with three top 10 draft
picks in the same year yet they couldn't get the job done while cam reddish Miss Duke's sweet
16 game against Virginia Tech and the Elite 8 game they lost against Michigan State I still felt
Duke was talented enough to win without reddish and after the game I remember hearing people
criticized the one anddone model that Coach K began to embrace years earlie
r comparing his
strategy to John calipari's early 2010 strategy at Kentucky and also saying you need to build a
team of players who have been in your program for years in order to win a National Championship sh
well with that said I thought back to that after this past weekend's games and now decid to look
up the experience level of every player on the last 17 national championship teams and the last
17 Runner UPS to the National Championship as well reason I did the last 17 well the 2016 d
raft was
the first NBA draft that allowed college players to enter the draft following their freshman year
of college and there have been 17 NCAA tournaments since then well I'm sure the information we
break down today could have helped us all with our brackets a few weeks ago at least we have
this information to go off of for next year's tournament now if we look at the grade or year
of every player to start in an NCAA tournament national championship game since 2006 there
are 48 seniors
57 Juniors 38 sophomores and 27 freshman in the last five National Championship
Games there have only been five freshman and nine sophomores to have started in the championship
game making that 14 underclassman out of the 50 players who have started in the big game the
last time you had more underclassman than upper classman in a single starting lineup of a team
in the national championship game was 9 years ago when the Duke Blue Devils sent out the storing
lineup of freshman tus Jones seni
or Quinn cook freshman Justice winow sophomore Matt Jones and
star freshman Jalil Okafor leading the team along with their key bench player a man you may know
by the name of gron Allen who was a freshman as well sending out starting FS full of under claspin
was a pretty common thing at the time though as in every championship game from 2006 to 2015 aside
from 2009 to 2007 either the national champion the national champion runner up or in some cases
both of them sent out a starting group ful
l of more underclassmen than upper classmen we just
talked about the 2014 to5 Duke Blue Devils but the championship runner-ups from the year prior
the Kentucky Wildcats said that an entire lineup of freshman in the 2014 National Championship
if we look at the runner-ups for the national championship once again this time in in 2013 it
was the Michigan Wolverines who sent out more under than upper classman the year before that the
2012 national champs the Kentucky Wildcats had a starting five
completely made up of underclassman
the 2011 National Champion Yukon Huskies did so as well the 2010 runner-ups the Butler Bulldogs were
the team with more under than upper classman in their 2010 starting group I will say though that
as a member of Butler Gordon Hayward nearly pulled up the greatest game winner in college basketball
history the North Carolina Tor heels at Michigan State Spartans made the national championship
game in 2009 and neither the champion Tar Heels or the runner-up
Michigan State Spartans had
more underclassman than upper classman in the 2008 National Championship Kansas played Memphis
and both teams only had one underclassman in their starting lineups for Kansas it was derell Arthur
and for Memphis it was a man you may have heard of before by the name of Derrik Rose finally we're
going to touch on the dynasty Florida Gators who were just one of two programs to win back-to-back
national championships in the last 50 1 years after doing so in 2006 and
2007 the only two
underclassmen in the 2007 national championship game starting groups were both members of Ohio
State as they were Mike connley and the first overall pick that year Greg Odin but the year
prior the national champion Gators as well as their opponents the UCLA Bruins both started
more underclassmen than upper classmen four underclassmen started for Florida and three
underclassman started for UCLA so while seven of the 10 championship games from 2006 to 2015
saw one or both t
eams start more underclassman in their lineup That trend has clearly changed
over the last 8 years as like I mentioned every team that make the championship game since 2016
started a lineup where more players than not have at least 2 years of playing experience I will
say though the trend of freshman and sophomores leading the way hasn't just been a thing since
the one andone era looking back at some of the most iconic college basketball teams of all time
the 1991 National Champion Duke Blu
e Devils had three three underclassman in their starting five
as they started Bobby Hurley as a sophomore Grant Hill as a freshman and Thomas Hill as a sophomore
while their opponents the Kansas Wildcats sent out three seniors a junior and a sophomore in their
starting group but the young Talent of the Duke Blue Devils was too much for the Kansas Wildcats
that year the 1981 to 82 North Carolina Tar Heels led by James Worthy Michael Jordan and Sam Perkins
had three underclassmen in their sta
rting lineup as Jordan was a freshman Sam Perkins was
a sophomore and Matt d was a sophomore as well that year and finally the UCLA Bruins led
by the greatest college coach of all time John Wooden and a guy I got my top three NBA players of
all time LEL Cinder AKA Kareem Abdul Jabar had a lineup of four sophomores and one Junior in the
1966 to 67 season when they won their first of three national championships together and the
third of wooden's 10 national championships so while the method
for winning has changed in the
college basketball world over the last8 years a team from nearly 60 years ago was relying on their
youth all the way back then I'm not sure though if Vegas seems to know that over the last 8 years
experience needs to be in your equation to help you win the national championship rather than
just freshman Talent Houston were the favorites last year and they did start more upper classman
than underclassman as they started three Juniors one senior and one freshman
Kansas had the second
best odds while starting three upper classmen and two underclassman then the third best odds were
B who started three underclassman including two 2023 first draft picks one being the best player
in college basketball last season Brandon Miller as well as Noah Clowney I can understand the high
odds around all three of those teams but clearly Vegas didn't get the picks right as Yukon won
last year's tournament and like we showed before started three upper classman back
in 2022 Gonzaga
was the betting favorite and while I understand since they had two NBA bound underclassman as well
as Andrew nart when he was a senior clearly Vegas didn't get that pick right either the second
best odds belonged to Arizona who started four sophomore and one junor then in third place
was Duke and while I understand is they had five NBA players on that roster including Paulo
bonero who was and is an incredible player four underclassman and one Junior was of course only
good
enough to get Duke a final four appearance which is good but of course not the goal for any
top seed in the NCAA tournament it's just simply seems that the model for winning has changed in
the world of college basketball but honestly can I even say that was truly a proven way to win it
all only nine of the last 34 teams to to play in the national championship game had more under
than upper classman in their starting lineup only four of those teams actually won the national
championship game
and the last one to do so was the 2014 to5 Duke Blue Devils while I absolutely
loved watching some of those staff Kentucky teams despite not even being a Kentucky fan myself such
as the 2014 to5 Wild Cats who went 38 and0 before getting upset by Wisconsin and the 2009 to 10 wild
cats who had John Wall Eric bledo Darius Miller Patrick Patterson and Boogie cousins in their
starting five neither of those teams fulfilled their goals of winning the national championship
and it kind of feels lik
e that tournament in 2015 is when the stacking or roster strategy began to
die out even despite Duke winning it that same year with Four Freshman in their starting group
maybe the Zion RJ and reddish Blue Devils could have broken that model if they were fully healthy
in 2019 but of course that is simply just a what if scenario I hope from what we looked at today
you can see what all 14 teams in the last seven national championship games have in common and
with Duke and Purdue being the only
teams that made it to the Sweet 16 this year while starting
more under than upper classmen we'll see if the upper classman model prevails or if one of
those two teams can win the tournament and break the mold I want to know in the comments
what you think of the data I showed off here today if you believe in this model as well as
your thoughts on this year's tournament and who will win if you enjoyed the video then I'd
really appreciate if you could give it a like And subscribe if you're ne
w to my channel thank
you guys so much for watching and I am out peace
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