Will INDIA’s Caste Politics derail BJP’s Hindutva train before 2024?? | Akash Banerjee & Adwaith

Nitish Kumar government has released data of Bihar caste census. And with this one move, the political narrative of 2024 can change. For the first time in 90 years, comprehensive caste data details are coming out in India. Why is this so important? What is the meaning of this for 2024 elections? Will the demand for reservations rise again? and why is this being called bad news for BJP ... let us find in this deep dive episode ~subscribe and press bell icon~ First of all, let's understand the big

numbers that are coming up. The caste population data has now cleared at least in Bihar. In the state, the upper caste is 15.5%, backward caste 27.1% Most backward caste 36% Scheduled caste 19.6% And scheduled tribes 1.6% If you want to dive deeper into the data, I will give you the link to the census data below. But in short, these numbers can bring a new era in Indian politics. There is such power in these numbers. The Supreme Court has been hearing about this. Does the Bihar government have

the right to do caste census? Hearing went on, while the report was revealed. It will go on in supreme court Anyways, the takeaway is that the total OBC population in Bihar is 63% and if you talk about SC, ST and OBC population, it goes up to 84%. This will bring a stir in politics because now the politicians will say that the domination of upper castes in every field is only 15-16%. Why is the SC, ST and OBC representation so low? This line of argument raises many political questions... especia

lly in the matter of reservation But religious data has also been released. Hindus 82%, Muslims 17.7% And the Bihar caste census has also classified Muslims into castes - The figures I just told you about in the caste-wise breakdown. But, the politicians have told us that 82% of the population is in danger from 18-17% ... What a fakiri! How you are being fooled that is the data. The biggest earthquake has not yet come. We are getting tremors like earthquake tremors in Delhi NCR These tremors are

telling us that Bihar government is going to release socio-economic data soon. This will give us information about education qualification, financial condition, land holding of different castes. Basically, India's caste reality is going to be exposed. What is the truth on the ground? It seems that other states of INDIA Alliance will also start the process of this caste census. A narrative is being set for 2024. For example, what is going to be the biggest challenge in BJP's Hindi belt, especial

ly in UP and Bihar? There was no clear answer so far now this angle of Mandal vs Mandir is going to be revealed. How? Let me explain It is a calculation of 80-20. India is still called a Brahmin-Baniya-Thakur country. It is not about emotions. It is about numbers. You can see per capita income, land ownership, university, corporate India, top bureaucracy representation. Or at what level we can talk about money or muscle power. From Supreme Court to your nearest rich private school... You will se

e the representation of some castes. This is not discussed much on TV news. Because the same casteism is prevalent there. As Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar said......political equality has come......but the wait for social equality is still there. This has been shown in surveys, but the data of the caste census after 90 years has made this hard reality as comprehensive numbers. And these are validated numbers. No one is challenging it. Now, why is the data after 90 years so important? For this, it is ve

ry important to understand a little history. Census was started by Britishers in 1881. It has been repeated every 10 years. India had caste system but the scope of this stark reality was first understood at the nationwide level with the help of data when the caste census was conducted. When the data was released on the ground reality, the political mobilization for the oppressed caste group got a boost This boost forced the government to implement policies. Remember this pattern. This pattern is

the basis of caste census concept and its politics. The play on caste is good or bad, ethical or not, we will come to that later. First, let's try to understand social and political reality. A reality check is done. Data is made from it. Political mobilization is made from it. And policy formulation is made from it. Pressure starts from the ground level for proportional representation. Way back, in 1902, non-Brahmin reservations are started in Kolhapur princely state and Madras State. Reservat

ions are introduced in Mysore state. Dr Ambedkar wanted to make separate electorates for Dalits. But, Gandhiji unilaterally blocked that demand. Reservations and quota system is still in place. But, after independence, quota was made for Scheduled Tribes. What kind of reservation policies are in place in the country? Political reservation, that is, MP and MLA seats. Reservation in educational institutions. And reservation in government jobs. But Independent India excluded one thing, and that was

to collect caste data during the census. Since 1951, it was asked that you come from SC or ST category. That is, there was no data on OBC and upper caste. And in SC and ST, Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribe, the castes that are found, thousands actually, we did not get that caste-wise data. If you are talking about category, then all the SC caste data was clubbed. So, the 1931 census is the last census that we have, in which caste-wise data is available. The demand for caste census which has bee

n going on for so many years is the same. What is your caste? everyone asks this question ... it is prevalent even now so why not census? If there are 4000 castes in the country then make 4000 columns. And find out the social and economic condition of each caste. People who oppose ask why, and say, we are one nation, one citizen. Or not? As Dr. Ambedkar points out, Varna system is like a ladder in Indian society. Dalits have been oppressed for thousands of years. You can see it even today on soc

ial media. But apart from them, all other castes are not the same. If we talk about Shudravarna, it has been discriminated against for centuries. But after independence, the system that was created, many castes were put in the general category with the upper caste. To understand the condition of these castes, the Kalelkar Commission was formed in 1953. The commission used the data of 1931 to identify other social and economic backward classes, or OBC. They recommended them to be given reservatio

ns in educational and employment. The government ignored this then and moved ahead. Despite this decision, states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh identified OBCs in their states and made their own OBC reservation policy at state level. We had made a detailed video on this in the episode of Dravidian Model vs Gujarat Model. We had made a detailed video on the foundations of Dravidian Politics and whether INDIA Alliance can use it. It seems to be the case. In the 1970s, the socialist movement b

ecame strong in the Hindi belt. This led to the Janata Party. This Janata Party swept the Hindi belt in 1977 elections and starts the state OBC quota. In 1978, the Mandal Commission was formed. The Mandal Commission aimed to understand the conditions of OBCs and make a policy proposal. The Commission's report showed that India's 52% population is OBC. But in top bureaucracy, representation is only 12.5% and in government jobs, it is only 4.7%. Seats in the general category were completely contro

lled by upper caste, complete domination. And this is where the demand for reservations starts Do you remember the slogan of Kanshi Ram? The more the number, the more the share. Politicians are fond of playing 80-20 or Us vs them. But the commission found that there is a difference. The upper caste population can be reduced to 20%. But almost 80% of the government resources are in their hands. When it came to merit, the Mandal commission said that... merit is largely a product of favorable envir

onmental privileges Meaning, the generational privileges you have. Merit and equality should be viewed in proper perspective and element of privilege should be duly recognized and discounted for when unequals are made to run the same race. Meaning, in the college race or in the job race, when a backward person tries to compete, you have to recognize that he is disadvantaged The report basically said that your caste network is your market net worth Your caste network plays a big role in the job y

ou get. The commission recommended 27% OBC quota to ensure equality in unequal races. Where this number came from? If the population estimate was 52%, how can there be 27%? In 1962, the Supreme Court introduced a 50% ceiling on reservations. This judgment was upheld by a 9-judge bench in the Indra Sahwney judgment in 1992. Since there was already a 7.5% ST and 15% SC, a total of 22.5% reservation, OBC could have got only 27% quota to ensure 50% ceiling. While the OBC population estimate was 52%.

This is a very important point. Remember this later when we talk about EWS, Economically Weaker Section Reservation. Then this will come in handy. But how does BJP's Hindutva Plan, which is the agenda of 2024, get dented? BJP is afraid of caste census and for good reason. In 1990s, when Mandal politics came to the forefront, Hindutva consolidation of BJP was shattered In 1989, in election results, there was a triangular fight in UP-Bihar between Congress, Janta Dal and BJP. Congress was the sin

gle largest party. But to keep it out of power, BJP and Left gave outside support to Janata Dal. BJP and Left, together, gave outside support to Janata Dal. It's Kalyug so this is all a game of power And, Congress and BJP can come together for power ... I won't be surprised. Anyways, with this unique confluence, for the second time in history, the country got a non-Congress Prime Minister. VP Singh. As soon as he came to power, VP Singh implemented the recommendations of Mandal Commission. Natio

nwide, 27% OBC quota was implemented. In education, employment, there was a massive protest. There was a youth protest. But with this, the OBC votes were consolidated with Janata dal And in 1991, in response to this, Advani launched a campaign to raise the issue of Ram Mandir. In the Hindi belt, the Hindu voters were tried to consolidate under the Hindutva banner. But the Janta Dal's Mandal politics succeeded in stopping the Hindutva politics. And since then, there has been tension between the H

indutva politics and Mandal politics. Politics is centered on this. Again, I am not talking about right or wrong. I am talking about politics and power play. Let's put ethics aside. If BJP had 40-50 more seats in the elections of 1996 and 2004, their government would have formed earlier. But seats in UP, Bihar were always passed in the hands of the Janta dal successor parties. Mandal politics has been a big speed breaker for BJP. But in the last two elections, you know the story of it - The mete

oric rise of BJP swept the Hindi heartland in which a big factor is the increase of BJP's OBC vote share BJP's OBC vote share was 22% in 2009 and doubled in 2019 to 44% so BJP weakened Mandal politics successfully, expanded Hindutva base There are many reasons for this. One reason is that OBC identity is not one identity. In this category, there are many sub-identities, all castes are involved. So, their political interest is not the same. In this, BJP has been able to bring some groups towards

itself. That's why, opposition parties have played the game of caste census so that it can have two aims. First, this OBC vote should shift back. So that they become champion of OBC and National narrative should turn into social justice. Remember if OBC vote share shifts a little towards RJD, JDU, SP, INC then India Alliance wins 40-50 seats in UP Bihar, then the game of 2024 will be re-opened. On top of that, BJP is trying to outreach Pasmanda Muslims. This caste census and social justice narra

tive can ruin BJP's plan. OBC list politics is not black and white ... it is complicated Many times, communities demand inclusion in OBC lists. protests turn violent. Many times, Supreme Court is involved. According to political convenience, parties also break up. Actually, Congress Party had done a special census in 2011 under pressure. But, attempt was half-hearted or sabotaged. Methodology, preparation, data collection, all had problems. Data could not be validated. It was unstable data, reje

cted and not released. In 2015, when Congress was in power in Karnataka, a caste-wise socio-economic survey was conducted The result was not released No, there was no data problem here because it is said that the politically dominant communities of Karnataka did not like this report. Because it revealed their dominance. Because their real numbers would show.. Rahul Gandhi has now said that whatever the number that much right will be there let's see if he walks the talk But the way Nitish Kumar r

eleased caste census data and the way it was supported by INDIA alliance, it seems it is time for caste census It cannot be stopped. This will become an election issue. Rahul Gandhi tweeted the results of Bihar caste census and reiterated that it is important to know the statistics of caste in India. So you can understand where politics is going. So it seems that in Karnataka, in the coming days, data will be released. Remember, there is already data in Karnataka. And in other Congress states, i

n INDIA Alliance states, the process of caste census may start. The question here is, what will be the timing of these decisions? What timing will INDIA Alliance get the most political profit? politics is more at play than welfare. And in January, remember, Ram Mandir inauguration is coming up. And it will be necessary to shift the narrative for the opposition. So, it is possible that like 1990s, Mandal vs Mandir politics will come to the forefront again. Now listen, you remember the blueprint,

right? First, ground reality, then political mobilization, then policy formation. BJP government is already annoyed with data. ~don't get into those maths~ editor relax... today only 30 journalists questioned. Why do this? Relax. But the truth is that we can't become a world leader by putting green curtain on social reality Denying data, reality, caste oppression can't solve the problem. Even a grocery store today runs numbers on Excel and orders goods. But in a country of 140 crore people where

caste is a fundamental social divide, how can effective policy be made without caste data? There are many benefits in reintroducing caste census. First of all, you will get a reality check. Most importantly, everyone will understand. If you talk about population numbers in Bihar, socio-economic data is yet to come, but it is very clear to understand the divide. Economic condition of OBC who are more than 60% and land holdings of upper caste How much inequality is there in educational qualificat

ion? Or, maybe lower caste people are highly educated? What is the discrimination in different OBC castes? What is the economic condition of SCs? The caste makeup of the states is different from each other. Different in Andhra, and in Assam. There can be better national and state specific schemes with comprehensive data. There is no debate on this. This data can have many policy implications. First of all, it is about changes in reservation policy. Now, if the number of OBCs is 60%, then why do

they have only 27% reservation? Supreme Court had set a limit of 50% on reservation. But remember, in 2019, right before the elections, BJP brought EWS, Economically Weaker Section Reservation. They had breached the 50% ceiling. Now, let's quickly understand how they breached it. Under EWS quota, 10% seats reserved for economically weaker sections who do not belong to SC, ST or OBC category. EWS 10% is for upper caste and economically weaker ... criterion of not being economically weak is so hig

h that 80-90% upper caste people do not qualify. EWS is an upper caste quota. Upper caste population is 15.5% and reservation is 10%. By that logic, if OBC population is 63.1% then quota is only 27%? If you are smarter than 5th grade and know basic maths, you will know that in our country, per capita, the upper caste, which is historically privileged, are getting more reservations than OBCs, which are historically disadvantaged. So, social justice pro max is going on. Only one state data analysi

s is just population numbers. When Bihar government releases the socio-economic data, then the real picture will be revealed Maybe then, both Hindus and Muslims will be after the same thing. What about their social justice, their jobs, their income? There is another aspect to this game of reservation. Most backward classes in OBC can be identified. There should be talk of stratification and creamy layer. But it is not just about reservation but als land ownership, then maybe land reform will als

o be discussed. Education qualification will also be discussed. So maybe in schools, education, the people of the backward classes, for them scholarship schemes will be discussed. Basically, only when numbers are known, then some social welfare will be discussed. Now, there are two clear impact points on this caste census. INDIA alliance will definitely benefit. Opposition unity will increase because most of the opposition parties support caste census. And INDIA alliance will be able to set a na

rrative for the first time. Not just defense in back foot, they will also play front foot. Second impact point: The issue of social justice will be revealed now and ground realities may become part of conversation Hindutva narrative and outreach to Pasmanda, will be affected by OBC consolidation. There is chance of loss of seats in UP, Bihar. Mandal politics can stop Hindutva politics But, it is also possible that BJP itself increases OBC reservations or announces to have its own caste census, t

o avoid loss - which will be masterstroke Because in the new parliament, remember, more than 800 seats will be increased by BJP with delimitation. Now, more the population, more the MPs. If this logic is right, by the way we made a video you can watch, if proportional representation logic is right then why not proportional reservation? BJP is in little shock they have not released statement at the time of recording this video It will be interesting to see how BJP responds to this issue. BJP had

also formed a commission in 2017 to study the OBC list. But the commission's report has not been made public yet. One thing is clear, the issue of census will become a hot topic in future. It should become a hot topic. It is an X-ray scan of the country which will make things clear Please write in the comment section, what you have to say on this issue. See, no one wants reservation in the ideal world. I don't want either. I would also like a society where everyone gets equal rights, equal oppor

tunity, no reservation for anyone. But where are the opportunities? Be it BJP or Congress, in the last 70 years, it has never happened that anyone has been able to come to the same level. As a matter of fact, in the last few years, it seems that it is going in the opposite direction. The barbarism is increasing. It is possible. So, it is necessary to remove it and deal with it. On Deshbhakt, we will cover this issue continuously because we think it is a big issue. We will bring facts and data fo

r you. Though Godi Media has been showing you only Hindu-Muslim, but the country definitely needs a ground reality, Now, lets see if INDIA Alliance can effectively make a political tool of social justice message and communicate with people. Will people also have political evolution or not. It's worth seeing. All apparel you see on Deshbhakt can be purchased online Deshbhakt merch is first clothing line that focuses on generating awareness on social and political issues Go to www.kadakmerch.com/t

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