2024 Oscars Predictions - All 23 Categories (96th Academy Awards)

Well, a certain movie made some of these picks a lot easier this year. Hey everybody, welcome to Mainely Movies. Today I’m gonna be talking about my picks and predictions for this year’s Oscars. There are 53 films nominated across 23 categories and just like the last few years, I had the opportunity to see every nominee. I do my Oscar predictions a little differently than most people, so I want to explain what I’m going to do here. Basically, for each category, I’m going to give you two picks. T

he first is my personal pick. It’s the choice that I think was the best or most deserving and would be my vote if I actually had a vote. The second pick that I’m going to give you is the choice that I think will actually win. This’ll take into account not only the quality of the film, but also other contributing factors like the demographic make-up of the voting body, current events, and other Awards Season wins. So, basically this is a should win, will win scenario. If you’re new here, please c

onsider subscribing for a variety of movie related content like reviews, ranked lists, and trailer reactions. Remember, these are just my predictions, so be sure to post your personal predictions for the 2024 Oscars in the comments below. I’ve already reviewed many of these movies on this channel, so if you want to check those reviews out for some more in-depth thoughts on each of them, I’ll put links in the description below and I’ll also link some of them up in the cards as we go along. I’ve a

lso done a daily 23 video Shorts series ranking the films of each of the 23 Oscars categories, so I’ll post the link to that playlist as well. Alright, let’s get into the predictions. We’ll go in the order that the categories were presented in last year and I’ll put chapter shortcuts in the description to make it a bit easier to navigate. Animated Feature Film. The nominees are: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. We’ve got a surprisin

gly diverse set of nominees in this category this year. We’ve got some anime, a Pixar film, a superhero movie, and then two smaller studio releases. With how different each of these films are from one another, it makes it a bit tough to compare them. Just like last year, I think I liked the Pixar nominee a little more than most people and I’ve got to say I was really pleasantly surprised by Nimona, but I’ve got to give my personal pick to Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. It’s the only sequel

in the nominees this year, but it’s just such an impressive work all around - the fantastic animation, the ambitious expansion on the already huge multiverse story. As far as the actual winner goes, I think there’s an outside chance that The Boy and the Heron might swoop in, but I’m predicting that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is going to win, just like its predecessor did. Actor in a Supporting Role. The nominees are: Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction, Robert De Niro in Killers of t

he Flower Moon, Robert Downy Jr. in Oppenheimer, Ryan Gosling in Barbie, and Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. As usual, I tend to struggle a bit with judging the acting categories in general, but especially the supporting categories. Last year I felt surprisingly strongly about my pick for this category and not so much with Supporting Actress. Well, that’s been flipped around this year. With the exception of me disliking Mark Ruffalo’s performance (which is a feat because as usually find him very li

kable), I didn’t feel super strongly about any of the nominees. While I did enjoy Ryan Gosling’s performance as Ken - which was easily the most expansive of the supporting actor roles this year, I think I’ve got to give my personal pick to Robert Downy Jr. These two are very close for me, but Downy Jr. served as a powerful driving force in his strong dramatic turn as Lewis Strauss. And I think we’re going to be hearing that Oppenheimer music a lot on Sunday, starting with this category, because

I think Robert Downy Jr. is going to actually win. Actress in a Supporting Role. The nominees are: Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer, Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple, America Ferrera in Barbie, Jodie Foster in NYAD, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Like I alluded to when I was talking about the last category, I feel very very strongly about my pick in this category. I thought all of the nominees did a good job in their roles, even if a few of these nominations were a bit surprising, but t

his one’s a no-brainer for me. My personal pick absolutely goes to Da’Vine Joy Randolph. The Holdovers was a very ensemble-based film, but she served as the emotional thread that bound this film and its ensemble of characters together. And I think the Academy is going to agree with me and give her that Oscar. Documentary Feature. The nominees are: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, and 20 Days in Mariupol. Definitely a much better set of nomin

ees than we had last year and right about on par with their Documentary Shorts counterparts. As often seems to be the case, this year’s documentaries were tough and not exactly the most uplifting stories. So, with a set of films like this, it would be weird to say that you enjoyed any of them, but I did think that both To Kill a Tiger and 20 Days in Mariupol were both very strong documentaries. Again, incredibly tough to watch but well-made and important. But I can only pick one and that easily

goes to 20 Days in Mariupol. I know we’ve had a lot of war documentaries over the years, but man. This one’s haunting and deeply emotional and infuriating. And I would be very very surprised if it didn’t actually win the Oscar. Live Action Short Film. The nominees are: The After, Invincible, Knight of Fortune, Red, White and Blue, and The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. Overall, I was fairly impressed with the nominees in all three of the Shorts categories this year, which isn’t always the case.

Live Action definitely had the worst nominee with The After, but I think all four of the other shorts were good to very good. I really the quirkiness of The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar and the impact of the heart wrenching twist in Red, White and Blue but my personal pick here goes to a Knight of Fortune. I can’t imagine too many people are going to agree with me on this one, especially with a Wes Anderson film in the mix, but the dark humor, realistic performances, and simple story of this

one really worked for me. That said, I don’t think it’ll work for most Academy voters, so I think The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar will actually win the Oscar thanks to its stylized nature, star-studded cast, and Netflix ease of access. Cinematography. The nominees are: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. Cinematography is always one of my favorite categories, but for the past couple years I’ve been a little disappointed by some of the nominees. And for

yet another year, it seems like that trend continues. There were some really great looking films this year, like John Wick: Chapter 4, and yet we ended up with some of these underwhelming nominees. At least this year’s best cinematography did get nominated, so I’ve definitely got to go with Oppenheimer for my personal pick. Poor Things might have an outside chance (despite its ridiculous overuse of fisheye lenses), but I think the Academy is going to agree with me and give it to Oppenheimer. Ma

keup and Hairstyling. The nominees are: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Society of the Snow. What a strange set of nominees this year. To be perfectly honest, I wasn’t particularly enamored with most of these, though I do understand why they would each get a nomination. My personal pick is probably one that most people, including the Academy, probably won’t agree with, but I’m going with Society of the Snow. Sometimes the most subtle and naturalistic effects are the best and this f

ilm conveys months of frost bitten survival using its hair and makeup. I think the voters will actually go with Maestro, however. This film combines a decade-spanning tale with a transformative makeup and prosthetic job to turn Bradley Cooper into Leonard Bernstein. Between the actual makeup work, the Hollywood connection of the story, and the fact that this film is probably going to lose in all of its other categories, I think it has a good shot here. Costume Design. The nominees are: Barbie, K

illers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. For some reason, I tend to struggle with predictions in this category so I imagine that’ll also be the case this year, but I do think we have a pretty reasonable set of nominees. Mostly period pieces, but we’re not overwhelmed with costume dramas, which is always nice. For my personal pick, I’ve got to go with Barbie. I do think Poor Things is also pretty good here, but Barbie just stood out more, which is impressive because both

of these films are so visually outlandish. Pink, neon, and over-the-top, Barbie’s got so many fun human-sized doll costumes (most based on the actual toys) that are surprisingly integral to the story, often quite literally telling us who these characters are. As far as the actual winner, I think this is going to be a bit of a toss-up between Barbie and Poor Things. It could probably just as easily go either way, but I’m leaning towards Barbie for the win. International Feature Film. The nominee

s are: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, and The Zone of Interest. This has become a surprisingly frustrating category the last couple of years. Not really because of the films, but because of countries’ strange decisions when it comes to their submissions. Last year, RRR somehow didn’t get selected by India and this year France failed to select Anatomy of a Fall. Admittedly, The Taste of Things was also a good movie, but it didn’t even make it off the shortli

st. Anatomy of a Fall not only would’ve been selected as a nominee, but it also absolutely would’ve won the category. But, we’ve got to work with what we’ve got. And what we’ve got is still a pretty decent set of nominees. For my personal pick, I’ve definitely got to go with Society of the Snow. It’s not often you see a survival tale like this up for an Oscar, but this gripping and harrowing true story was the strongest for me. It might have a small shot at actually winning, but I suspect the Os

car is going to The Zone of Interest. I mean, it is the only one also nominated for Best Picture, after all. Documentary Short Subject. The nominees are: The ABCs of Book Banning, The Barber of Little Rock, Island in Between, The Last Repair Shop, and Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó. Like I said before, the Shorts categories were stronger than usual this year, so even though there were a few lesser nominees here, I thought they were all pretty decent. My personal pick was a little tough to narrow down this yea

r. I was really impacted by The ABCs of Book Banning, but the short’s overly simplistic style and approach hurt it a bit so The Last Repair Shop gets the edge for me. This not only had a great and uplifting story, but it was also really well-constructed. For some reason, I think there’s a chance we could see something unexpected happen in this category and I don’t think we can discount any of the five nominees. That said, since I have to make a prediction, I’m also going to give The Last Repair

Shop the slight edge here too. Animated Short Film. The nominees are: Letter to a Pig, Ninety-Five Senses, Our Uniform, Pachyderme, and War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko. Of the three Shorts categories, I think this has probably the weakest set of nominees, but I think they’re all still pretty good. For me, there are two that stand out from the others: Ninety-Five Senses and War is Over. Ninety-Five Senses was one that grew on me as it went and I think it made really interestin

g use of its structure. But I’ve got to go with War is Over for my personal pick. I know I’m in the minority here. This one may be a bit cheesy and on-the-nose with its message and the needle drop is eye-rolling, but its oversimplified alternative history war story is both uplifting and visually interesting. For my actual prediction, I’m very torn between the same two choices. It could easily go either way, but since the Academy voters tend to trend a bit older, I think they’ll go for War is Ove

r. Production Design. The nominees are: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. Much like a handful of other categories, Production Design tends to be one of those categories that really favors a particular type of film. And in this case, that’s period pieces. Perhaps unsurprisingly, four of the five nominees are period pieces, so that makes things a little tough here. Interestingly enough, I think the strongest contender and my personal pick is the only non-p

eriod piece here: Barbie. Barbieland is a pink and neon sight to behold. Authentically artificial, its practical sets and expansive designs faithfully recreate the Barbie playing experience, right down to the 3/4 scale. Much like with Costume Design, I’m a little torn with my actual prediction because once again, I think it’s going to be a toss-up between Barbie and Poor Things. In fact, I think the split will be even more pronounced in this category. Poor Things’ steampunk overstylization is te

mpting, but I’m going to predict Barbie for the win here. Original Score. The nominees are: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. This is another category that’s been strangely underwhelming the last few years, with a surprising number and caliber of snubs. I still like all five of this year’s nominees, but it’s definitely not the set of scores I would’ve picked. These range from jazzy to quirky to classically cinematic

. I really enjoyed the American Fiction score but the relentless, tension-building quality of Oppenheimer’s score puts it at number one for my personal pick and also for my official prediction too. Visual Effects. The nominees are: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One, and Napoleon. Unlike last year, I think the results could go a few different possible directions here. Almost all of these films feel worthy of their nomina

tion, but my personal pick has got to go to Godzilla Minus One. I’ve seen a lot of the Godzilla films, but I think this might actually be my favorite Godzilla design. With his plate-popping charge up and destructive atomic breath, the visuals here definitely succeed at blowing you away, while not overpowering the human drama of the story. I think The Creator has a pretty decent shot in this category, with some impressive sci-fi visuals, but I’m giving the edge to Godzilla Minus One for the win a

s well. Original Screenplay. The nominees are: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, and Past Lives. What a weird set of nominees this year. Two of these films have no business being anywhere near a screenplay discussion, let alone being nominated for the Oscar. And then the other three films are amazing and incredibly difficult to choose between because they’re all good in different ways. So, even though two are complete throwaways here, I think this is the most challenging c

ategory for me this year. Anatomy of a Fall is gripping, The Holdovers is funny yet melancholically cozy, but I’ve got to go with Past Lives for my personal pick. It’s a film with a deceptively simple story but it’s told in a heartaching way that way too closely parallels elements of my own life and hits me hard every time I watch it. When it comes to the actual prediction, it’s just as tough of a choice. I think all three of those films could win, but I think I have to go with Anatomy of a Fall

for my official prediction. Honestly though, I would be happy with any of those three winning. Adapted Screenplay. The nominees are: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. As usual, this is one of the tougher categories to predict because it’s hard to tell how the voters are going to approach it. Are they going to select the best adaptation? Or are they just going to select the best screenplay that happens to have been adapted? Most of these nominees are b

ased on books, but things get a little complicated with Oppenheimer’s biography basis and even more complicated when you throw in Barbie’s IP-based qualification. So, I had a single Barbie when I was a kid, which I guess is enough background for that nominee, but I haven’t read any of the four books the other nominees are based on, so that makes things especially difficult. That said, my personal pick is going to Oppenheimer because of how deftly it traverses the decades nonlinearly to incorpora

te both the personal and professional elements of Oppenheimer’s life. If you had asked me a few weeks ago, I probably would’ve predicted some more Oppenheimer domination in this category but given its sweeping wins at other recent Awards ceremonies, I’m actually going to predict American Fiction for the win here. Sound. The nominees are: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, and The Zone of Interest. I know I complain about it every year and I realize

that we’re probably never going to go back, but it still throws me off that sound has been condensed into just a single category. If we still had our two different sound categories, then I think it would be a little easier to choose between these nominees. Some of them are stronger on the sound design side, while others are stronger on the sound editing side. But luckily for us this year, there’s one that’s very strong on both sides: Oppenheimer. And for that reason, it’s both my personal pick a

nd my official prediction. Original Song. The nominees are: The Fire Inside from Flamin’ Hot, I’m Just Ken from a Barbie, It Never Went Away from American Symphony, Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) from Killers of the Flower Moon, and What Was I Made For? from Barbie. Ah yes, the most frustrating of all the Oscar categories for me each year. As usual, that’s not really because of the songs themselves, but rather because of the nomination criteria. I understand that it’s allowed, but it’s just al

ways bothered me that closing credit songs can be nominated. Luckily, this year we do have quite a few movies that incorporate the song into the film itself, so things are a bit better on that front compared to normal. Speaking of normal, everybody’s favorite nominee-but-never-winner Diane Warren is back for a 15th time. And as much as I want her to finally win an Oscar, she’s not going to… at least not this year. My personal pick has got to go to the catchy and silly I’m Just Ken. And while I d

o think it has a small shot at winning, I’m predicting that Billie Eilish will be picking up her second Oscar, for What Was I Made For? Film Editing. The nominees are: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. Along with Cinematography, Film Editing tends to be one of my favorite categories each year and that certainly still holds true this year. I do think there’s an odd nominee or two here, but each of these films were well-edited. I’m faced wi

th the same three-film dilemma that I had with Original Screenplay, but I definitely feel more confident with my pick in this category: Oppenheimer. With its nonlinear decade-spanning story, the editing was key to this film’s success, keeping the story incredibly tense while also making it simple enough to follow. And so, it’s also my official prediction for the category. Directing. The nominees are: Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall, Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon, Christopher

Nolan for Oppenheimer, Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things, and Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest. There are a couple slightly unexpected nominees this year and a few unexpected snubs, but I don’t think it really matters because there’s only one nominee here that’s truly in the running: Christopher Nolan. This isn’t the time-bending sci-fi he usually wows audiences with, but this was such a layered and deliberately crafted, cohesive work. So, Christopher Nolan is my personal pick and I also

think he’s going to actually win. Actor in a Leading Role. The nominees are: Bradley Cooper in Maestro, Colman a Domingo in Rustin, Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers, Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer, and Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction. This is one of the easier predictions for me, but one of the harder personal picks to make. As much as I enjoyed almost all of these performances, there were only two that, while watching, immediately stood out to me as potentially Oscar-winning: Cillian Murphy an

d Paul Giamatti. They’re two very different types of performances in two very different types of films and I like them as close to equally as you can get. So, my personal pick may as well be a coin flip but I’m going to go with Paul Giamatti because his blend of humor, sarcasm and damaged heart was just the right mix for me. That said, I don’t think anybody besides Cillian Murphy has much of a shot for the actual win. He had such depth to his performance here, able to convey how haunted Oppenhei

mer was both professionally and personally. Actress in a Leading Role. The nominees are: Annette Bening in NYAD, Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon, Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall, Carey Mulligan in Maestro, and Emma Stone in Poor Things. I’m not sure why, but these acting categories almost always seem to surprise me with their nominees. Some of the women here were expected, but I was definitely not anticipating Annette Bening making the cut. Anyway, my personal pick was an easy on

e this year: Sandra Hüller. When I was at TIFF last year, my first two films of the festival were Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, so I started things off with an Hüller double feature. But as soon as I saw her performance in Anatomy of a Fall, I knew she was going to be tough to beat, at least for my own personal pick. As the driving performance in this incredibly tense movie, she delivers an impressive trilingual performance that has you rooting for her but also constantly suspiciou

s of her. There might be a super outside chance of her coming away with the Oscar, but Lily Gladstone has been running away with the category at other Awards Ceremonies, so I’m predicting a win for her here as well. Best Picture. The nominees are: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. Alright, the category everybody’s been waiting for. Although I didn’t like the collective s

et of nominees quite as much this year as I did last year, we certainly still had some really good films. Just like last year, my top two favorite movies of the year earned Best Picture nominations which is both exciting but also challenging because as really like both of these movies. But as much as I love The Holdovers, I’ve got to give my personal pick to my favorite film of 2023: Past Lives. I saw that movie at Sundance last January and knew right away that it was going to be the one to beat

, for me. It’s such a deeply tender and melancholic exploration of fate and what might have been and definitely one I really really connect with. But as much as I would absolutely love to see it come out on top and have two years in a row of my favorite film winning Best Picture, I don’t think that’s going to be happening. This is very much the year of Oppenheimer, so along with all of the other Oscars it’s definitely going to be picking up, I predict that it’ll also be winning Best Picture. Alr

ight, so there you have it: my picks and predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. These were just my thoughts on the likely outcome of this year’s Oscars, but I’d love to hear what your predictions are too, so be sure to post them in the comments below. I’ve already reviewed some of these movies, so I’ve put links to those videos in the description below, and you can check those out if you want some more in-depth discussion of each, as well as my ratings, pros and cons, and even tailored film re

commendations. And if you’re interested in buying any of these Oscar nominated movies, I do have affiliate links to all of them in the description below. I get a small commission from anything you buy using one of my links, so I’d really appreciate if you’d use them if you’re in the market for any of these movies. Also, be sure to check out my 23 category Oscar ranking series and come back after the Oscars to see how I did with my predictions in my final Oscar video of the year. Alright, so if y

ou got some enjoyment, insight, or information out of this video, I’d appreciate it if you’d hit that like button. And, if you haven’t done so already, please hit subscribe while you’re at it, to see more videos like this as well as movie reviews. Till next time, this has been Alyssa with Mainely Movies: The way life should be.