It's been untouched for millions of years... lying deep below the Arctic ice. The future of our warming planet
depends on what we decide to do with it. It could be extremely valuable – and extremely dangerous. Below the ice lies a fortune in unexploited oil and natural gas resources, and everyone wants a piece of the melting Arctic. "China is geographically a near arctic state" "The United States is an arctic nation." "These restrictions cannot stop
us from exploring the Arctic..." And it's not
just about oil and gas. The melting ice also opens up shipping
routes, fishing grounds and land. Will the Arctic powers grab those fossil
fuels, and worsen the heating of our planet? Or will they cooperate for a sustainable future? It's not as simple as you might think. To survive here, you do need to cooperate. The largest arctic mission ever, called MOSAIC, proved that humans can pull together. "Oh man, I am so impressed! A challenge is a challenge. But we together can overcome it." Scienti
sts from twenty
countries – including Russia – worked peacefully together to
investigate climate change in the Arctic. But when it comes to economic interests,
that spirit of cooperation evaporates. The regional powers are trying to claim as much land as possible. So, who are these rivals? And who does the Arctic really belong to? More than half of the Arctic
coastline is Russian territory. Two million people live there, about
half the population of the entire Arctic region. Then there's the
USA with Alaska, Greenland which is part of Denmark, Canada, Iceland and Norway. International law gives these countries the right to control natural resources in exclusive economic zones up to two
hundred nautical miles from their coastlines. The Arctic region beyond those boundaries, including the North Pole, is agreed to be "a common heritage of all mankind." That means it should be held in
trust for future generations, protected from exploitation by
nations or corporations... BUT... Countr
ies can apply for larger
exclusive economic zones if they can prove that the
shallow sea off their coastline goes out further than 200 nautical miles*. Norway, Russia, Canada, and
Denmark have already done that, presumably for when the melting ice opens
up all those economic opportunities. Having a strong presence in the
Arctic is ever more important. "The Arctic is caught up in this larger geopolitical tension between NATO and Russia, and it's the Arctic's strategic importance for Russia t
hat also leads to the increased military activity in the north." Andreas Osthagen analyses the political dynamics of the Arctic region, with an emphasis on security and geopolitics. "We've seen a downward spiral if you will, or a tit for tat where Russia has been exercising, simulating attacks on Norwegian targets, simulating attacks on NATO targets and then NATO responds with these large-scale exercises that combines military forces from many countries." Big shows of military strength often rev
eal much about potential future conflicts. And surprise surprise, in the Arctic, it's shaping up to be oil and gas money... Just how much money can be seen in Russia's largest protected wilderness, the Great Arctic Nature Reserve, and the massive oil project there: Vostok Oil. Russia hopes to extract 6 Billion tons of crude and 2 Trillion cubic meters of gas here. It's planned new airports, marine
terminals, and 800 kilometers of pipelines. That's assuming the Arctic has melted enough to ship ou
t the oil,
via the northern sea route. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has
however put a dent in these plans. The Vostok project has lost
investors and access to Western oil and gas tech and services. It might well be delayed or scaled back. But others are stepping in: One major investor is China. "China is of course interested in Arctic science, because without this knowledge it's impossible to operate in the Arctic." This is Sanna Kopra. She researches China's Arctic policy. "China is very hun
gry for resources because its economic growth is mainly based on heavy industry and it needs a lot of energy, a lot of mineral resources. And the Arctic is a new area where
it can exploit these resources. But of course, it's very dependent on cooperation with Arctic states, especially Russia." But Russia's war against Ukraine has made some in China wary. "Some Chinese investors have paused their activities in Russia because
[of their fear] of sanctions. I mean of course China, there are
no sa
nctions against China for now, but if they cooperate very closely with Russia, there is a risk that the EU or US will post sanctions against China as well." The Arctic is also part of China's ever-expanding Belt and Road Initiative, via what's been dubbed the Polar Silk Road. The Belt and Road strategy is
building a vast network of railways, highways and ports to allow China to transport
goods and resources around the world. Recently, some Arctic players have slowed or stopped oil and gas deve
lopment. Canada prohibits offshore oil
drilling in marine protected areas, and Greenland banned oil exploration in 2021. The US has suspended oil and gas leases in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. But pressure is growing to drill
here to secure energy supplies. The Arctic's presumed huge gas
and oil resources sound so tempting. They are often cited as
fact – most numbers refer to one study of the United States
Geological Survey, which was conducted in 2009. "It is important to unders
tand that the percentages and estimates that are provided in these reports are really highly uncertain." This is Nina Döring. She and her team researched how a scientific estimate became economic facts. "The numbers and percentages started to appear in a wide range of policy documents and Arctic strategies of different countries and in newspaper articles. And through all of these translation processes, it really started to seem as if it was a fact that there are large
quantities of oil and gas
just kind of waiting to be found in the Arctic, when actually that really is much more unclear." And what about the people living in the Arctic? Their land is not only at the
center of geopolitical tensions, it's also melting under their feet. "It's been a real transition for us." Karen Pletnikoff monitors how fishing and climate change are affecting the food chain. "And now the climatic
changes, the warm water blob, the harmful algae blooms... they are conspiring to impact the basic productio
n of the Baring Sea." For the five hundred thousand Indigenous
people of the Arctic, it's a real threat. Their income, culture and traditions depend on an ecologically intact Arctic habitat. Toxic substances from oil and gas exploitation can collapse such fragile ecosystems. When absorbed by plankton and plants, they can poison the food chain. For example, this little guy is
the fattest of the Arctic copepods. And fat is vital to survival in the cold. If those copepods fail to breed,
less fat
is transported up through the food chain, to fish and birds, to seals, whales, polar bears and humans. Just tiny amounts of oil in the sea can crash copepod egg hatching rates. Without copepods, the food
chain is seriously disrupted. Between 2013 and 2019, there was a 25% increase in marine traffic in the Arctic. Yet more wastewater discharge, oil pollution and underwater noise. This disrupts wildlife's ability to communicate, navigate and hunt, while chemical pollution hurts the health and rep
roductive abilities of this fragile ecosystem. Most ships use heavy fuel oil, banned in the Antarctic but somehow allowed in the Arctic. When this ridiculously dirty fuel
spills in polar waters, it's especially damaging. When cold, oil is more viscous and
doesn't break up into small droplets which oil-degrading bacteria could consume. "The risk of oil spills and accidents can be a really serious challenge for clean up here." Developing the Arctic sustainably alongside Indigenous groups is key
to Elena Tracy's work. "Because when an oil spill happens these areas are hard to access. So, clean-up operations are usually delayed, accidents can ruin ecosystems, wipe out the large populations of species, and of course, damage the livelihood." Heavy fuel oil creates another big problem, not only in the Arctic, but over the entire world. It's Black Carbon, which is produced by burning fossil fuels – especially heavy fuel oil in ships. Black Carbon particles are
not only a direct health risk.
In places like the Arctic, they blanket the white snow and ice and make them absorb the sun's heat instead of reflecting it. So the snow and ice melt faster. So, what to do? There are many committed groups,
local, national and international NGOs who are promoting
sustainable cooperation in the Arctic. Then there's the Arctic Council, the
leading body for cooperation and coordination among the
Arctic States and Indigenous Peoples. The Arctic Council promotes sustainable
development and envi
ronmental protection in the region by providing assessments
and clear recommendations on action to be carried out by the Arctic States. But they are only recommendations. It's up to each state which action is taken. For example, the Council
suggests defining shipping routes to minimize negative impacts on coastal communities and the marine environment. It says black carbon pollution can be reduced by moving away from fossil-fuel powered transportation on sea and land. It wants to connect exist
ing marine protection areas and establish new ones in close
cooperation with Indigenous peoples. Russia's war on Ukraine
has disrupted the Council's work. But other Arctic States and communities
are working together – without Russia. One successful example of international cooperation was the Central Arctic Ocean fishing moratorium signed in 2021 by the US, Russia, China, the EU and several more countries. This multilateral agreement takes a
legally binding, precautionary approach to protect
an area from commercial fishing – before such fishing has even begun. But there's no sign yet of
a similar law to protect the Arctic from oil and gas drilling. "I think the superseding issue in all development decisions, should it be in the Arctic for new coal-fired plants, for extracting oil and gas out of the ground, should be climate change." This is Malte Humpert, founder of the US think-tank, the Arctic Institute. "And one way to address that
should be some kind of global fund. Where pro
jects like that
could be, could be offset, where it's like 'hey Russia, how about not extracting oil and gas resources out of the ground' and there will be some kind of compensation fund that every country in the world will pay into depending on you know, some complicated formula." While countries hesitate to join forces, some major businesses ARE already
moving away from oil and gas. A growing number of reinsurers, among them Aviva, Allianz and Munich Re have committed to stop or restrict unde
rwriting for
new oil and gas projects. It takes an average of 16 years before new oil and gas fields reach maximum production. So putting money into Arctic oil and gas projects is becoming more of a gamble for banks too, as in the near future renewable energy may well be much more profitable. But only a binding multilateral
treaty can protect the Arctic. And in the end, cooperation is the key. If you are interested in topics like these,
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