Under/Over Football Betting Strategy to Win Repeatedly – Football Betting

want to see a football betting strategy  that wins repeatedly check this out so i track the results on this super simple  betting strategy over the space of 30 days in excel i'm gonna reveal all the bets the secret  behind how the strategy works why it's a repeat winner and how it secures a substantial profit on  under over's football betting market it relies on a couple of basic indicators that anyone can find  each day as you'll see in just a second but first i need to explain why it worked it

's pointless  showing you the indicators without understanding and it's way more useful than giving out football  betting tips as you'll be able to identify these opportunities for yourself sometimes the situation  evolves and prices change whilst looking for them so doing it this way gives you maximum value if  you agree smash the subscribe button for more in the future because if you like betting on the  unders and overs market this is the best strategy that you'll ever see here are the result

s for  the first 10 days of using this football betting strategy look you can see it doesn't guarantee  a winner on every bet although i repeatedly win more than i lose whilst using it there were 16  bets to level 50 pound stakes with only 7 of them winning 9 loss producing a strike rate of  43.75 getting average odds of 2.29 on each bet would have resulted in break even except we  didn't get odds representing the strike rate we got average odds of 2.66 over those 16 bets  leaving a profit of 11

2 pounds and 50 pence at day 10. now don't panic if that went over your head  it's super simple and i'm going to explain further but the point i'm making here is the selections  were a higher price than they should have been mathematically if i keep doing this it means that  i win more than i lose in the long run and that's a fact nobody can predict the future so there's  no point trying this strategy works because it focuses on repeatedly getting value odds which  means i'm guaranteed to win it

's the same reason that betting companies make millions every week  because they can't predict the future either it's just that this strategy ensures that the value  proposition is the other way around on my side to illustrate if i reduce the average odds of my  10 days results to a price below the 2.29 average the final result would have been a loss and that's  how a sports book makes a profit so let me explain exactly how the strategy works and how i'm picking  these bets then i'll show you th

e best places where the opportunities arise and why so take a  look at my screen here showing argentinian match odds on the left we have the odds of betfair's  exchange exchanges are the best guide to true price in real time there's not a huge amount of  money in the market but you can see that over 2.5 goals odds are between 2.36 and 2.6 now there's a  gap in the price spread but the market is telling us that it believes the true odds are somewhere  between the two prices for reference the midp

oint between those two prices is 2.48 now if we compare  that to the sportsbook odds on the right hand side of the screen bearing in mind it doesn't include  commission on bets you'll see that the sportsbook is providing some value here the corresponding  over 2.5 goals bet is currently priced at 2.55 on the sportsbook higher than the midpoint of  2.48 on the exchange the reason i'm highlighting this is because it's a clear indicator that the  sportsbooks bet is overpriced in this instance betti

ng on it means we get a bigger price than the  marketplace deems the bet is worth it's a value pick by repeatedly betting it will win eventually  even if we encounter a string of losing bets it's really important that we remember this and believe  in the maths because the strategy doesn't work if we start chasing losses taking a smaller price  or getting emotional about short-term variance in results distribution in results can be erratic at  the best of times but long-term probability brings th

em into the line looking at the results by day  20 you can see that this is true there'd been 33 bets in total with 18 losers yielding a strike  rate of 45.45 equivalent to odds of 2.2 on average meaning if the bet had been priced at 2.2 i would  have broken even but here's the really important bit i want you to understand here by using this  strategy the average odds were actually 2.63 significantly higher than they should have been  which is why the results stand a profit of 300 pounds and 50

pence and that's great but where's  the best situations to find value like this on a daily basis and also what did the results look  like by day 30 now you've probably noticed there haven't been any premier league matches amongst  the results here and there's a very good reason for this i've specifically targeted low quality  football here because this is where the strategy is most effective sportsbooks take millions of  bets on football every day of the week and most of them are on the popular

matches such as those  in the premier league which means they spend a lot more time and money monitoring and changing their  odds to make sure they have a good margin built into the prices that they offer it's opposite of  what we're looking to do here with this strategy in effect they're making sure that odds are bad  value and extremely hard to beat in the majority of cases this strategy works repeatedly on unders  better markets on the low quality stuff because it's an additional market where

the pricing  isn't so sharp it's less likely that we'll find value in the market odds or on the premier  league although it does happen from time to time now the time i look for these bets is important  too typically it's 6 to 12 hours before the match starts that the value is available finding them as  the market liquidity is forming is best setting up automated alerts can help although i'm not going  to go through that in this video but before we go through the final results for the full 30 d

ays  there's something very important you need to know about this football betting strategy because  there's a downside you can see it on my account here now it's a shock for some recreational  bettors that bookies don't allow repeat winning for long despite advertising the opportunity  to win they're sore losers when the little guy repeatedly beats them they don't play fair bet  fair of stake restricted my account for winning now they'll only let me state between 10 pence  and 2 pound 42 on thi

s bet they do it to anyone that consistently beaten them on their sports but  it's proof that the strategy works and they know it although it is frustrating as it limits the  amount of money that can be made if you want to win repeatedly with this football betting strategy  into the future you'll need to use multiple sports books or require extra accounts so let's see how  i did over the 30 days and calculate the value margin for this strategy if you're getting value  please subscribe down below

so over the course of 50 bets in 30 days 27 of my over under bets lost  23 over one leaving a total strike rate of 46 there were one to three bets per day the price and  time of the bet is logged in line with the betfair sportsbook you can see the corresponding over and  under bet and its final result to the right of the spreadsheet given the ratio of winners to losers  it means the average betting odds would have had need to be 2.17 to break even however the average  odds we got were actually

2.637 meaning there was a margin of 0.467 on our side on average nearly  half a price point of value is big when it's a polarizer market where there are only two outcomes  like this to level 50 pound stakes this football betting strategy yielded a profit of 534 pounds  50 over 30 days which isn't a huge result but it's extremely reliable unlike football accumulators  as i explained here in this video if you've ever placed an accumulated bet you just have to see  it thanks for watching i'll see y

ou next time