good evening ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the 19th hole we are live as always on in between media make sure you like this video subscribe to the whole damn Channel and jingle that Bell for notifications we have one more week to tune up for the Masters we just missed out on a 400 to One Long Shot just by one stroke that's golf that's golf we're moving on to the Valero Texas open at TPC San Antonio leg two of the Texas Swing let's hit [Music] [Music] it [Music] [Music] here we are 19th Hol
e Connor Coughlin I'm Bo mcre as always this is Valero Texas open week Masters tuneup week TPC San Antonio one of the least remarkable golf courses on the PGA tour Greg Norman design with the help of everybody's least favorite personality Sergio Garcia couple of great live names designed this golf course marked by one of the par 3es with a pot bunker in the dead center of the green for whatever reason no idea but Connor butb Alejandro butter toasty the the big time Argentine 5 foot6 and a powder
keg of 350 yard drives just couldn't quite finished the deal we got it a winner that was in our pool Stephen joerger but bittersweet because the aer's payoff was a lot less than seor Alejandro tosy uh he uh nobody is a bigger believer in toasty than toasty himself that dude was I love that guy that guy is me if I was 5 foot6 and I I do speak Spanish so I'm out there at 5 foot 6 staring up at 6'4 Tony fow who's the chillest dude of all time and Alejandro is out there yapping dude I thought I tho
ught toasty was going to square up on him in the parking lot afterwards I I wanted to see it right there on the was it the fifth hole they were already duking it out because that was the day after fena went out there and just lit it up for 62 had the 36 hole lead but he was scuffling on Saturday ended up shooting two over that day and so he was already in kind of a pissed off mood because he started off real slow that round toasty of course is blazing hot was 68 or better in all four rounds love
that guy 400 to1 it still paid at plus 850 a top 20 finish for me so thank you I Andro for the for the money and let's let's get some respect on that kid's name because he's super young he's super not he's not polished yet as a professional that that was apparent the pressure definitely got to him he even admitted to that he was uh he was pretty nervous out there it was the first cut he's made this season so we're I was I was on him for the simple fact that he was a good course fit and the metr
ics lined up well even though he wasn't making Cuts yet he was still playing pretty well yeah and he's he's a player over over the last I don't know what year or so that like we've hopped on especially especially when you like kind of minimize the U the accuracy yeah the Wayward Drive penalty if the if there's not much of a penalty for uh hitting it out of the Fairway then toy is your guy because he's your bomb and gouge perfect he's the quintessential bomb and gouge play and it's fun to watch b
ecause he's I think in my article I compared I said he was as exciting as an amateur rocket launch and uh and I wrote that on Tuesday last week uh in my write up telling everybody to bed on toasty bed on toasty and everybody's looking at me like I'm insane I think you gave me a little side eye last week for for mentioning his name but it was like such a long shot that I didn't blame you one bit because I didn't know whether he was going to shoot plus 12 and fizzle out of the tournament after two
days or if he was going to get hot and make me look like a freaking genius uh luckily it was the ladder yeah and I think I think uh every eight months or so one of us will get on toasty and that's the week to jump on him because I think last time around me and you're like who we don't mention him very often but when we do it seems to be the weeks where he pops off where he's the anti- Cory Connors where we never get Connors right the defending champion of the Texas open and we're going to cover
him shout out to our Canadian fans uh but toasty is a guy we've always gotten right and that's that's a good thing that's it's a definitely good thing and like really I think I think in a telecasts that are no longer super entertaining like having somebody like toasty out there like I was just like waiting to see what he's going to do next so here's the hoping that he's he's in contention more and we get we get more live TV of a toast because uh yeah like I said he was fired up and he wasn't af
raid to show everybody I mean fist pumping like par putts that didn't even necessarily matter I mean the dude was just on a roll so so I I did scramble to find a couple things that made me think of Alejandro uh he actually liked my comment on his post thanking the fans for for being on his side last week and I commented felic congrats and best and The Best Is Yet To Come and he liked my comment on Instagram so that that made me feel good that I was seeing like I like I like you toasty I was on y
ou all week and we we're right here so I invited him to come on the show he hasn't seen that message yet we'll see but I am I am drinking that this is appropriate I was looking for a toasted Barrel pick but I think I finished my I have a I had a bottle of Penelope toasted and I had a bottle of the High West toasted and toasted barrels are really nice way to add like campfire zest like a sores type of feeling to a whiskey so instead of that I went with the value Kirkland Signature small batch and
Alejandro toasty is a small batch but you remember these back in the back in our day we got these Fruit Barrels oh hell yeah short and stout just like Alejandro let's go I can't believe you're chasing Kirkland's small batch with a with a little hug fruit barrel and obviously it's just like Gatorade there's no flavors it's just colors it's just colors yeah like the purple one that you would think tastes like grape tastes exactly the same as the blue The Only Exception back in the day was the gre
en one kind of tasted like a green like otterpop a little bit like it wasn't the same but otterpops are another color thing only yeah yeah man I I'd eat a whole dozen otter poops right now if I could we got the boozy ones in our in our uh we have a garage fridge and freezer and so we get into there on pool days and we get the boozy pops yeah those are stap in the summertime around here too so absolutely we get we get down I am not as elaborate as you tonight I am drinking uh peanut butter whiske
y oh I do I have some peanut butter whiskey but that's I mean peanut butter of course if you're not allergic then peanut butter is one of the great Delights in life and when you combine it with whiskey or chocolate or pretty much anything even just by itself it's great I'm a huge peanut butter guy I know you are too this is uh oh and you got it you got it cold chilled down that's that's smart because it it Mellows it out and makes it even sweeter right oh it's so nice and this one still has a ni
ce little burn even though it's like chilled chilled like it is and uh I know everybody knows what like screw Ball is for the most part but bucks for it this this guy Rams Point Rams point is 15 bucks and in my opinion every bit is good and it's actually got a little heavier whiskey hit on the back end so little sweeter up front a little heavier on the back rams Point that's that's smart I mean it is I mean for all you astrologists out there it is Aries season uh shout out to all Aries out there
and I'll be doing the rest of the show by myself goodbye and Shout Out NorCal I got my shirt I can't shout out NorCal without shouting out Casey kasm who sent this to me from her shirt shop check that one out will'll do are you ready are you ready to talk about this golf course I'm I'm already I'm I'm saddened by toasty all over again just reliving it like scratching that old wound I picked the scab off and now now I'm really ticked off that I didn't win all that money hey it was a good sweat m
an that like that that was a hell of a sweat so much fun and of course Easter was ruined when I flipped the table over and toasty missed the parut on 18 oh don't even get me started on a ruined Easter weekend I got the flu Friday night before we Dr and for anybody that's watching that doesn't have a flu shot immediately go get one because this was like the worst flu that I've had ass kicked oh my god dude such bad like leg cramps I couldn't even get out of bed on Saturday like I was or if you're
with if you if you spend a lot of time with vulnerable people then definitely get it that's that's another notch there yeah no joke so we giv out PSAs on the show this is great what a show already be safe out there be safe out there uh let's hit the caddy notes and talk about TPC San Antonio where is that I think it's in Texas I heard [Music] so [Music] winging it just winging It Funky Chicken wow bringing it back so as Beyonce says incorrectly this ain't Texas it is Texas it's the Valero Texas
open this is used to be a pretty sparse field for Masters prep all the guys already qualified skipped this week to go practice at Augusta National to get a little bit of a heads up on how the course is rolling but this year with the way the schedule's kind of shuffled about this is a pretty nice tuneup and there's a lot of guys who aren't yet qualified for the Masters that are in a good mix as a first timer here and then you have you have a couple guys that already qualified they're just using
it as a stay fresh type of week so it's a really strong field compared to previous years yeah absolutely and and as a tuneup piece I mean there are at least some of the green the nuances to the greens are at least somewhat similar to what you're going to see at Augusta so so fast and fast and ulating Fast and undulating so uh Valero Texas open TPC San An anonio uh par 72 7438 yards long long long uh Bermuda overseed with Ryan POA on the fairways greens are going to be more of the same uh accurac
y honestly is the strategy here distan is a nice to have I kind of used it as a close second to um to the accuracy bit so long and accurate is is optimal but not always easy to find uh the course uh the course itself actually plays a lot tougher than the um uninspiring setup would lead on um though nothing is like terribly uh penalizing here there are about 70 bunkers in play there's three holes of water 72 72 that's quite quite a lot for a golf course with only 18 holes not the most we've seen
as as recently but uh yeah it's still a lot four per hole by my math God that public school is really paying off Bo so graduated um you can definitely go out of bounds here there's a couple of spots in particular so uh that's where that kind of accuracy accuracy piece comes into play uh the greens though are probably the trickiest part of this whole place they're uh very difficult to hit they both some of the lowest green and regulation rate always very firm fast firm and fast I made sure I filt
ered for fast greens here because they they do Blaze and it's been a hotter drier spring for Texas than in recent years so it's gonna really roll yeah and when the wind kicks up which we'll touch on in just a second that's going to dry this place out even more so you mean the wind's gonna kick up in Texas so I know I was a staunch uh was I right or was I right you were you were 70% right I'll give you some credit but uh it was pretty blustery on Saturday I'll give I'll give you that the rest of
the days were were manageable like you could see it's Breezy but like said wasn't going to affect too much but Saturday it really kicked up and caused all sorts of Mayhem and I it's gonna obviously be worse here this week like I said momentarily we'll get to that um what I did want to touch on with the greens is they already are boasting some of the lowest greens and regulation rates on tour so like we're talking about as they get drier they're going to get harder to hold they're going to get fa
ster um and then if if you're getting on the Green in regulation uh you get to deal with some tricky uh POA overseed on what are really kind of slick and undulating greens so uh it's definitely it's definitely really tricky you'll you'll hear some comparisons to the uh The Greens at Augusta probably throughout the week it's kind of becoming nauseating um but yeah I mean ultimately what you're looking for is is really well-rounded players uh that have accuracy and distance is is what you want uh
all your approaches are varying buckets a lot last week so you can't really pinpoint one specific approach distance that you want to you want to be honed in on uh the weather like Bo and I were getting into a little bit uh it's going to start out pretty pretty calm about 8 to 10 mile an hour um for Thursday uh you're going to start getting into the uh gusts in the upper 20s by midday Friday uh and then into Saturday you're going to see sustained winds of up to 20 to 30 miles an hour so it's uh i
t's going to be pretty brutal uh the the only thing that kind of up in the air in my opinion right now is what's going to happen on Sunday um if the weather front kind of sits and hangs um or we get a little bit of Whiplash from it you're gonna have to see some pretty pretty tricky conditions again on Sunday uh if it clears out of here like supposed to then Sunday's going to be a bit more of a scoring Fest I think it's going to be a lot more getable for these guys so um I would say winning score
is probably going to be somewhere depending on how brutal it plays on Friday and Saturday probably somewhere between 10 and 15 under it's hard to pinpoint I just don't know exactly how bad um and I would say the Cut's probably going to be around plus two so yeah really good round synopsis there uh stats to build around like you said accuracy off the T but I I put a huge emphasis kind of on the opposite of what you did I think it's interesting that we have similar results where I see this as a s
econd and third shot course where if you're hitting the green to your credit you said those birdie putts are going to be tricky uh so you have to really stick it close there um sticking it close and having proximity good proximity on approach uh across the board this this course will challenge every every uh iron in the bag for these guys so an overall approach game and then of course your your your ability around the green not necessarily scrambling but just uh getting up and down uh with regul
arity here in avoiding those bogeys uh because here if you if you stack a couple bogeys together uh other guys might be making par and Birdie on that same hole and you and you really fall behind quickly uh with especially with a stronger field like this is we've seen Scotty and and Rory and guys like that erase a five shot deficit within a few holes because you get a two- shot swing here and another bogey to par right after and then you have a whole different tournament that happens a lot at thi
s golf course so uh we I I kind of want to embrace the same volatility we did last week where we we take our shots at the favorites but we also keep in mind that somebody from way back deep is going to make a run here and they're gonna be just as rewarded for their good shots as those top guys are I would agree with you the the only thing that I would say probably is that the likelihood of somebody from way back there this week I think is maybe a little bit less just given how well-rounded you h
ave to be like once you get to the longer odds the deeper DFS pricing you got guys that are Specialists sometimes at one particular thing but you need really well-rounded players here and and to boot you need guys that are well-rounded and can play an intense wind so I you know I I think I think that uh the best plan of attack here is to try and not only with your betting car but also with your like DFS when we get into it is the more well-rounded and I guess um um consistent build you can find
is probably the way to go so I agree all right so we're betting on golf we're betting on the Valero Texas open we're going to start with the DraftKings odds right after this drop we're headed into Club [Music] Twirls [Music] all right made made good money last week twirling those clubs just like Alejandro tosy uh man we we had such a good run on this show the last year really but last year plus thanks Rosie I I agree uh I don't know she's barking at this time you can tell somebody's here or what
ever but this time I I have no idea anyway yeah so we're we're looking at it's a it's a tough tournament to judge because we have some guys that are really overpriced in my opinion and then other guys are in that same tier that are a good value and so it's hard to tell whether I want to go with one that's kind of a a hot commodity and maybe a little overpriced if I like them more versus somebody who I might only be looking at because their odds are soft uh that's that's the the kind of conundrum
I'm finding is building up this betting slip with guys I like versus guys that I can get better odds on is that your lead in to ludig and uh hiaki yeah yeah that's those are two guys that might be a little overpriced but they're also my favorite guys same so let's talk about Rory who is getting a really short number and has been playing like ass for the last two months versus uh somebody who's just a little bit cheaper ludvig oberg who's got he's on fire right now and his 12 to1 number is short
for him but with the way he's rolling the way he fits this golf course it's really hard to ignore with Rory the problem for me is truly that the distance stuff the distance and accuracy he's still probably the best driver of the golf ball on the planet and um the problem is he's it does play here but the problem is he's not necessarily been showing anything that indicates he's going to take advantage of it the wedge play has been not good and uh and game is shk game's been bad so it's Rory mroy
I mean he's he's a player that always is lurking right there like he can absolutely show up here take this field by storm but here's what you're you need a trans later for Connor sometimes but if you watch this show regularly and you hear any hesitation in his voice about betting Rory mroy you probably shouldn't if he's all gung-ho about Rory you can make your own judgment but rest assured he's probably a good play of Connor's all giddy about him um I'll be right behind Connor in that respect I
'm a huge Rory fan but if there's any hesitation in Connor's voice about Rory you might want to skip him this week for somebody we both like which lud VI oberg is definitely that guy at the top of my list number two in my model behind the other guy you mentioned Hideki Matsuyama coming in I think 20 right now that's pretty decent for a guy who is playing out of his mind right now but we're talking red hot Hideki I'm not going to tell you the top two guys in my model but three and four were Hidek
i and oar okay and uh what what is really awesome about the two of them raing out so well off the schneid got you pegged he's right he's absolutely right Rory needs a masters to complete the career Grand Slam and it's the only one he hasn't won and he's been heartbroken every year it's that Meme that's going around with Rory like for people that don't bet on Golf Plus 800 on Rory at the Masters means you lost all your money on Rory yeah you put a $100 on him you lose $100 [Laughter] um no uh so
what I was goingon to say though is with uh Hideki and oar uh what's really awesome about him is they rided out one and two for me in t to Green over the last 24 the way I waited it um and they held those positions respectively um once I added in the extreme win metric so it's two guys that already set up incredibly well here and are in great form who play even better and windier conditions so um I there's nothing that I can say to get myself off of Hideki and ludvig other than Hideki is always
live to WD so if you're trying to make a choice near the top if you can only bet one I probably lean ludig over Hideki so I did the research I found a video of him saying his name correctly and it is oberg oberg oberg yeah so we we had we've been all over the map with him it was aberer then it was O oberg and then o and then like how we hear it from certain people is how we kind of play it out but I actually heard him say his own name and it is oberg so we can now say it correctly every time goi
ng forward right oberg I had to I had to throw that in because I didn't want this show to represent mispronunciation of names it's an important thing we want to get those right seriously if anybody is a repeat viewer they know that I'll butcher something else so we don't pronounce I'll call you out on it I will call you out on it unless I don't know myself and I just go with you whatever you say yeah there's a couple of the foreign guys that like I'll I'll say their name and you're like sounds r
ight yeah sure of course all right uh so going down the list what else do you have here we have I have I love love who do you think who do you think I'm going to talk about knowing you I'm gonna say more aawa yeah and that's that's the other side of the coin is this is such an amazing number for a guy this good that I was taking a double take like I was like are you sure moraba is at 25 and all these other blos are way shorter because that doesn't make any sense I know I know Collins's been stru
ggling for by his standards but he's still world class I still hold him well above a guy like Tony Fe now who kind of gets spoken in the same breath as morawa which is that's that's a disservice to morawa he's had much more success in his career so far than feno uh so get me morawa at 25 for him that just seems wrong and in my model he came out fourth uh that's nothing to shake a fist at because he's he's definitely good here I mean his accuracy on approach is so good that I can't imagine him no
t being at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday I think he's got the right mix um well-rounded like game throughout the bag I guess is what I'm saying I think I think what what I get a little nervous with morawa is the putting is just so bad streaky it's you never know when it's gonna be because sometimes he'll come out there and he'll gain eight Strokes putting and you're like where did that come from and then subsequently where did it go no it's is when his putter is neutral he's like Scotty
sheffler he's out there just picking pins right out like he doesn't matter if they're tucked or in the wind he's good across the board at at at finding greens and being close to the hole giving himself lots of Birdie putts whether or not they go in is whether or not he wins or competes yeah I mean I you're not I'm not going to fight to uh to bet moraal but 25 though I mean doesn't that doesn't that give you more of a focus on it I I just don't trust I just don't trust that this is the uh the we
ek for him like I I've got I've got some I've got some interest in morawa coming up but so morawa or Corey Connor they're virtually the same player although I think morawa short game and putting over as a whole is much better than Cory Connor's and I think he's just a one one notch above him Tia green which Connor that's the strength of his game he's a great driver the golf ball and he's amazing on approach but his short game is non-existent this guy can't chip or putt uh he just seems to do jus
t enough from Tia Green in this tournament to have immense success in it so maybe it's just a horse for the course that we can't ignore I'm not a huge Cory Conor's fan but this is the one week where I'm looking at him like H that's pretty sexy at 30 for the defending champ a guy who won again a few years AG go too yeah not only that but I was surprised at how well he's actually been playing over the last 24 like he rated out second in my model so uh it's it's he's up there for me too and it's it
's an incredible pick uh I think that he's mispriced too isn't he well I think a two-time defending Champion here who plays Better In The Wind we we don't need to discuss Cory Conor's putting prowess because it's non-existent but the rest of the rest of the game the rest of the game coup with the the wind play and um you know he's he's decent enough off of the te distance-wise he's accurate enough pure he's just pure from like his ball striking is pure oh I would say swing is that swing is Silky
I would I would say Conor's over morawa so morawa hasn't played this tournament before he doesn't always tend to rise to the occasion when the stuff gets rough and then like I said just I don't trust to flat stick with him and these greens aren't a walk in the park um yeah and for uh off the schneide like we uh we both use fantasy National so y we I was did dabble and Rick run good but uh went back home to Fantasy National yeah it's it's good to be back for you um I I recommended it because I'v
e been stomping your face in and DFS lately so I wanted yeah the trend was what you're really made of I think you're just going through a rough patch on the DFS side and that's sometimes you just got to shake it back shake it up and go back to something you you know is good um we're back baby I'm gonna pull up my model right now while we're at it because I can share my screen from that tab let's pull that up so I did want to touch on so before we get too far away from it I did want to touch on B
en on and I know I know I'm not the the lone person on Ben on this week but another guy that's been playing out of his mind um and really fits this course well even before you look at the win stats and then he's just another player that tends to rise to the occasion of win so if you're not if you're not catching the trend with at least my picks I'm looking at guys that are well-rounded that fit the course in benign conditions and then I'm looking to see if they play well and win if they play wel
l and win they're a green light for me and that's what Ben on is here yeah I mean it's it's looking at looking at guys that are in those tiers that have a lot of value uh as you go I mean Hideki we're both in love with Hideki we we barely talked about him this guy's just on fire and you can get another guy at 20 or another guy at 25 or another guy at 30 this group is loaded so if you just want to you just want to not maybe not go after oberg and Rory you have a cluster of guys you can confidentl
y bet in that 20 to 30 range it's just loaded I think you're making a tactical error if you skip oberg I I really do I think I believe the same but I'm just saying for those people who maybe don't want to spend a lot on this tournament save some for next week uh I get it and I would I would feel pretty confident skipping oberg if if I wasn't quite as high on his his number being so short that that's a reason like oberg I think is going to do great this week but he is awful short for what he's ac
tually accomplished so far are on tour um so that we have to play that we have to play devil's advocate for the people that maybe don't feel good about that number like we do um my next two guys that I I want to talk about are down at 55 so if you got anybody in between we have it pulled up here I got a guy uh named AE batia who's on quite a heater right now D you that's mine yeah I I just think that Ox is just he's rolling right now and his putting has improved so much this season uh that this
guy's got scary talent if he's rolling the putts in uh he's he's outstanding on approach this guy is one of the best wedge players in the on the planet right now I think he's only 22 years old so yeah this guy's the future he's already on fire this year so fire up OE he models well as you can see he's number 10 in Mine He's probably even higher in yours I'm guessing by your reaction but oxay oxay is just he's exciting I I mean I followed him at the Barracuda last year he's fun to watch and that
that says a lot for a golfer to be fun to watch that's that's that's what we're dealing with with this kid yeah and I think I think where I really came around on um with AE is how just how creative he can be and the amount of different shots that I've seen him shape now and you've been kind of banging the drama about what a technician he is with his irons and I've been a little slow to come around on it but last week watching him play in the windy conditions and then the guy doesn't shoot over a
69 all weekend and just sitting there going man this is somebody who like week on week I'm hesitant about because he's inconsistent and then he goes out in probably the worst conditions we've had so far this year consistent golf you know so yeah yeah he's just impressive he's just really impressive and so to get his level of talent and upside at that number that's a no-brainer yep so I am hammering that and uh that's uh my next one is right below him with uh uh Aaron Ry and Aaron ry's another p
layer good win player been on a great streak lately look at that number four number uh number five in mine so yeah we're right there and he like I said he's another one you add in that extreme wind filter and he's not going to move much on you I think he dropped maybe two places on mine but um yeah just in excellent form played played decently last week so uh I'm going back to Aaron rise so those two guys at 55 to one I think are a really um a really good value actually like kind of kind of prob
ably a little longer than they should be in this field given their form are you talking [Laughter] ohh that was the best I haven't I haven't got that has not happened to me in a long time I was on a good role uh I was just gonna mention Tom Kim's name because I was excited about him a few weeks ago and he had to withdraw with the really high fever uh so I'm not going to fault him he's a great fit here he lives in Texas and at 50 to one I think that's a really good number for a guy with his techn
ical ability uh in comparison with another Prodigy youngster oxay batia Tom Kim's right up there in that same tier for me especially in a course that he's played a lot before and it it just fits his game because he's such a steady player and we've seen him in the wind I mean he he took down he almost took down the open in really [ __ ] conditions with a broken ankle this guy plays in the wind like a madman uh so yeah it I can't ignore Tom Kim especially if we're getting such a great number on hi
m uh you don't always agree with me about Tom Kim though and I'm not gonna this week either I I damn it yeah I no Tom Kim's not for me um love Tom Kim I'm excited I'm excited for him to get back into the form that we were seeing towards the middle tail end of last year but right he ain't it right now and I don't I don't know that this is necessarily a getright course either so I would I assume he's GNA try and knock for me it's more of a homer pick he's not he's not high in my model I just love
him uh and there's there's guys in the same range like Jordan spe that I'm not on this week at all even though he's won here before that was a really long time ago and he's raing out about the same as a deep deep shot that I'm going to men mention at the end because he just qualified for this tournament but after after those guys all my other guys I'm picking in my betting slip are long long shots like deep shots uh I have I I only have two more on the card at all one at 90 to one and one at 110
go hit me with your 90 so 90 I'm I'm gonna this is this is legit a gamble but I'm gonna um lay some money down on Doug gim uh geez man you're all over the place this is crazy so I'm going to scroll right to the very top of my model and Doug gim is number three the the only reason that I call it a gamble here like Doug gim has been knocking on the door since the beginning of the year like this guy's on fire he's whatever happened from last year to this year this a totally different golfer yeah h
e's he's a totally different golfer I don't know that I necessarily 100% buy that this is the best course fit for him I don't know that I 100% by that he's going to be able to play as good in the wind but in his last seven starts he has five top 20s so I love the top 20 on him which is a plus 330 that's a that's a pay right there and then and then like really honestly just banking on good form continuing to be good form and maybe maybe he finds a little something this week I just don't want to b
e out on Doug gim anytime in the near future just given the form he's in 90 to1 is I think pretty long for even even given some of the risk with the conditions so yeah and and I looked at a lot of guys that range I I love gim maybe in DFS a little bit more than betting on him because you what you said the gamble that comes along with it uh but like going down to another guy who's won here before and seems they've actually changed the name of the tournament to the Valero Hoffman open Charlie Hoff
man has been better this year than in recent years could he be worse no yeah compared to the two years prior yeah he could not have been worse this year has been more of a a comeback season for him and he's always played this course well he's won it he's runner up twice uh this guy just seems to fit TPC uh Scottdale and TPC San Antonio something about the desert Southwest just appeals to Charlie Hoffman so there you go 130 to one for a quarter unit hell yeah party on Wayne bet that's for that's
that's worth it uh we we jump past the one I I will not be betting Chuck Hoffman it's fun though you sometimes you just got to have fun with your golf bets Conor tell I'll tell you what stick your unit in the nearest USPS box and address it to me and I will send you back a bottle of something it's way better money you spent okay all right so who's your 100 10 to one can't miss pick brother brother uh can't miss is no that's that's not a thing um especially as far as I'm concerned uh Andrew Novak
is another another guy what has he ever won though uh well he got an eighth at Phoenix Open which you just drew reference to Charlie Hoffman in this place then he followed it up with an eight at Mexico open then he followed it up with a ninth at the classic and then he followed up uh that miscut at the players which ain't great 17th at valpar and then last week last last week at the Houston open he was uh number one in the field for shots gain total just didn't didn't manage to win yeah he wasn
't even he was within like two or three shots but so Novak for me this is puzzling because I don't equate Novak's name to any sucess did I say number one he gained one stroke in shots gain total with 3.1 off the T and uh if he was flat on approach so not a not a stellar performance but I needed to correct that I was misreading that yeah but he's sixth in my model and I just can't make sense it sixth in my I can't make sense of it though it's he's number two on par fours he's number six on approa
ch 13th and bogey avoidance uh he's terrible at scoring on not terrible at anything really uh birdies are better it's the only one where he's kind of middle of the pack he's in the top tier in every category I just don't equate those stats to any meaningful success for betting and obviously I'm missing him he's in a blind spot for me and so maybe I just got to give Andrew Novak a shot to either burn me or or join the team you know yeah I I mean I think to be honest I think that that's a that's a
better thing to spend you know a partial unit on as Andrew Novak who um again like statistically is rating out really well like he's in the top 15 for almost three4 of the metrics that I weigh um and on top of that he's another guy that when you change it to windy extreme wind conditions like he's gonna move up instead of down low ball flight so again it's it's not like a sure sure bet deal or anything but he had some really good form leading up to um leading up to the players it hasn't quite b
ounced back to where he was but you know you look at this this is a 24 round model I mean it's not like he's been a slouch on any of these metrics um you know I think I think this I couldn't find anything wrong with him except for apparently just not talking about him enough he's he's earning his spot on the show now because we can't ignore the stats or the results anymore like I some some of these golfers are just like that for us where we just like they sit in this like under underneath layer
where they don't get talked about very much that's Novak for me and I think he needs to have more of the spotlight getting used to switching back to the different model like I was on my mix condition model and I'm reading the rank and I switched over to the player profile and I'm like oh he's first in shot how could he be first in shots G I said it more whatever that means one thank you for the clarification uh I have three long shots that I'll be taking little shots at in bding uh Chan Kim has
been having a great season and two 250 to1 is is a nice shot take a top 20 or top 40 flyer on him that's that's where the money's at with these I've been rolling in profits just on placement bets this year uh so that's uh that's a good way to hit your long shots is take a little bite a dollar or two on a on a outright but then also throw in a TW a a top 20 or a top 40 bet or even a made cut bet can double up on on on a bet or triple up on a bet so yeah don't ignore these as just like a pipe drea
m and we we damn near saw 400 to one last week and so there there is Merit in some of these guys Chan Kim's one of them the guy next on my betting slip is a guy you've been talking about the last two weeks Hayden Springer that's your boy Hayden Springer's on my card this week 300 to one pretty nice and another guy that I we've both each mentioned once on the show before the Belgian Adrian d shasa addc 600 to1 this guy's playing really well in the DP World Tour i i c I've been catching little uh
Snippets of rounds on DP World Tour play and he and Rasmus hoard have been great this season uh can't ignore the Belgian who just people haven't talked about or they haven't heard of him because he's not on the PGA tour full-time yet uh let let me get a run at that guy because he's got lots of talent are you ready for my late last minute Monday qualifier Edition that you and I both love at 400 to one Peter Quest Peter Quest yes yes that that's our guy too he Monday qualified uh he's he's a bombe
r we're talking this guy nukes the ball down there 340 yards a pop and I've seen him play he's he's just outstanding he's got lots of potential his short game's kind of been his downfall but on this course he can score here so if he doesn't fizzle out in a cloud of dust or an explosion which is more likely to happen uh this is your 400 to1 toasty pick this is a similar player to toasty where he's very volatile he's got lots of potential to go low but he hasn't showed the consistency quite yet uh
but to see him in this field as a Monday qualifier warms my ever loving heart let's go Peter Quest we're rooting for you on this show you'll always be a friend of the show he he gave my daughter a golf ball when we were at the Barracuda uh his he finished up on 18 and gave her the ball uh it was her first PJ Tour event so uh it was a pretty exciting moment so always a friend of the show Peter Quest we're always going to root for you and potentially bet on you this week definitely bet on you yea
h let's go all right that's exciting who do you uh who do you like in DFS we're I'm goingon to hit the drop don't you go anywhere but think of P Ponder The Leverage picks that are coming up oh man the club as well this would be a wrestl and we lost [Laughter] him all right no trunk slams Connor I have I'm writing a thre week winning streak I'm enthralled by it I'm purchasing many beverages at your expense and it's it feels good I'm going to I'm going to keep riding that wave as long as I can and
hopefully you'll get it together and we can be more competitive that would be that would be nice but we are looking at this a very similar player pool this week so uh why don't you kick it off with h who you like at the top who I like at the top I think what I like at the top based on the uh the roster ship that's coming in is uh I probably will dabble in some Rory I think I think I'm I think I am going to gamble a bit using Rory he seems to be dipping down in that 15 16% range uh as Obert ober
g and um matama pickups team so he's oddly becoming a leverage play of the top three guys so didn't start out that way he had a lot of heavy ownership coming in but I'll have some Rory um where I'm going to eat the chock though is probably going to be uh oberg um I think if I gota if I got to take stand at the top I think I prefer oberg here and and I'll take the I'll take the ownership discount yeah that's that's a really nice plan um I'm I'm gonna hit the top with Rory again just the same he's
a great scorer like whether he's winning or not he's gonna score you a [ __ ] ton of DFS points so Rory is a great start to a lineup especially since the ownership's not out of control by any means like people are paying atten ition to Rory's recent form it hasn't been great and so the ownership's kind of cooled off in a good way for us to play Rory at the top of our lineups and maybe even get a little different in the process just by proxy of him sucking it up lately I mean yeah it's it's him
and Hideki for me with a lot of oberg and a little bit less more aawa uh because that top tier is nice I want a nice mix of those all those guys at the very top because I think they're all going to be live to score a lot of points I like I think I mean really getting down from there I I've already kind of told you I'm out on morawa it's a nice leverage play it's it's projected around 8% which is oh that's nice really really nice up at the top um oh yeah I think for me it's it's spe at 9500 uh th
ere's just something about interesting that works for Speed and uh and and really when you think about it of course it works for Speed you can be wherever you want off the tea pretty much and then you just got to be really creative at getting up and down which is second and third shots I mean the only downfall speeds approach game has been horrendous this year uh it's a really odd thing to see because typically his second and third shots are some of the best in the world uh so that's the one hes
itation I have with speed is his approach game form has been bad yeah I mean it's just not the first time you see that with speed I I don't NE get a little squirly at times yeah you don't I don't think you always see it coming with him when he's going to get it all together so uh he's he's got decent decent history here I think he won this two years ago three years ago yeah so yeah I'll take I'll take Jordan spe and and kind of windy Texas conditions on a course he's one at before um with little
or no penalty off the tea um yeah makes sense yeah and we haven't even talked about Max H he's kind of a sleepy one in here too uh but Connors is there I mean Ben on you talked about a little bit earlier uh popular pick is Billy horel I'm not seeing it is there something I'm missing out on with Billy Hall he he played well last week but before that it was nothing um I think he's had I think he's kind of looks like he's rounding back into form people are trying to probably trying to be a little
bit early on him um you H's kind of the same way like H really hasn't been doing a whole lot of of note lately um and then you know Corey Connor's I love the bet I kind of hate the DFS play um it just it feels it feels like we're overpaying for Cory Connor 26% at $9,400 is just it's rough yeah I I'll just I'll happily pass yeah I mean it's it's nice to think that he could win again here but at what cost do we sacrifice his his his median scoring on DFS not great uh so if he doesn't come out guns
of Blazing again this week then we're getting burned with all that ownership I'm with you there yeah we haven't even talked much about the t- splits but I don't know what t-s split he got either so neither uh yeah let me pull that up here who are you talking about Cory Connor and and he is a good win player but Cory Connor's got Am Pm yeah which is one the first one one of the first ones out on Thursday yeah which is the split you don't want right you want the PM am which is the afternoon on Th
ursday and morning on Friday that's going to get the better more favorable win conditions overall between the two splits yeah I think I think that's a I think that goes on the card but doesn't make it to DFS for me yeah okay so let's see going down that next TI you can skip down pretty far because there's not much in the eights I'm really interested in unless you're just kind of building out some filler lineups but I think you can load up on the high eights and the nines and balance it out with
all this value in the sevens do you have anybody in the eights Conor because I'm not I'm not really high on any of these guys maybe besides norin norin norin continues to rate out really well and yeah I'll definitely play some norin um number one this field in bogy avoidance uh number nine in accuracy off the te number six on greens and regulation number eight in power five scoring uh can play in the wind um 8700 actually when you compare it to players like yeah when you compare like what norin
what noren is rating out versus guys like Max hom that's you know getting approaching twice his his roster ship projection um sheesh yeah norin at 8700 seems like a good value here so yeah and I'll have some Tom Kim because I believe in him uh but I'm going down to bazen hoot at 7900 Ry batia yep yeah cashmir Keith High sevens is so packed with good guys that I think I can skip a lot of the eights most of the time to to just load up on this range with so much value packed into it yeah I'm probab
ly I'm probably a little more concentrated here this is probably like my I guess Sweet Spot yeah so so it's a lot of Aaron Ry it's a lot of batia um I'll have some CZ and I will um I'll actually uh I'll roll the dice on Keith Mitchell like it's hard it's just hard to ignore Casmir it's hard to ignore Casmir how he's right out I mean he didn't really pop the way that we necessarily wanted him to but he's still right out number one in approach over the last 24 and he's also number one in Opportuni
ties gained which the scary thing is is that hasn't translated to uh any kind of putting or around the green gains as far as far as yeah we don't when we're talking about Keith we don't talk about the short game it's just unspoken but all it takes is for him to find just a even a vague idea of how to hit a putt and uh and your God it's painful it's painful so so probably lowest lowest to my ownership but concentrated on batia and Ry I want to see them in a lot of my lineups this week and two guy
s that raided out well in the low sevens for me MAV mcney who's been playing better this year eight out of nine cuts two top 10 and Eric Van royan who I have converted from a EVR hater to an EVR fan fan boy yeah thank you for sheding the light on me because EVR is a great play here 72 bunkers ain't never heard of them ain't no water on this course let's go EVR uh let's let's uh his potential with in this tier his his points fantasy points are way higher than anybody else in this price range and
he's not raing out as being very chalky 7,400 smash the EVR button in DFS yeah especially when you compare him to Lucas lover who arguably is playing worse who's coming in at almost 3% higher Pro Paddington extraordinaire Lucas Glover so yeah I'm I'm with you uh on EVR and evr's roster ship or at least projected roster ship is actually coming down as shares move on to MAV and Lucas Glover so um while I agree with you that MAV is also a good play I think I'm going to stick to my guns with van roy
an and just watch the ownership kind of disperse between MAV and and because it has already that's love lovely lovely um are you playing any toddfa or Austin e root who scores a lot of fantasy points eek root sucking me in but I the the wind it's tempting the Wind part scares me with him I like and I I think with I think with egrot more than a lot of these guys uh for him to outscore the guys that we just talked about like a lot of things that really got to got to align for for him so I I think
I'll probably take a pass especially because he is coming a little higher own what I like seeing e Ro at yeah so all right take another shot on Sam Ryder here gonna be a pass okay no Sam Ryder Doug gim 6900 Hammer that one hammer it yeah I like that one that's a great one 7.99 sheesh yeah 9 gim beautiful that one's a unanimous gold star pick save that one and then I can drop down pretty far here um coocher Coo's been trash this year uh he satun has lots of potential at his price um Bud collie st
ill plays Char cofman for me doesn't really play as DFS upside but he'll be in the pool 10 Novak is dirt cheap man there's so much value here 6,500 for Novak that's beautiful toasty toasty still got Firepower and we're still in Texas boming gou still plays here to a degree as long as you're not really Wayward into the trees uh toasty's got upside 6300 maybe Good Vibes pick there well and toasty is awesome because like we we just saw on like kind of a similar weather setting um and somewhat simil
ar conditions what he's capable of doing um and he's got the fire in the belly right now and the other thing I love about him is he's 1.8% projected ownership like all I got to do is two lineups and I'm already over the field so so my top scoring lineup last week was gargantuan it was a beauty of a lineup because I had I had uh Scotty at the top and and I had toasty at the bottom and he was like 5400 and he was 0.43% owned I was the only damn fool in that whole tournament with Alejandro toasty i
n my lineup and that that's what that's what wins you the real money in DFS so were you on toasty last week I was on toasty all week oh God it's gonna be the next guy that sends us a restraining order we we won't even be able to talk about to by the end of the week we're we're not even talking about the ones that are already on that list you can figure out who uh who's got the cease and assist letter out to Bo based on who we just stopped talking about I just don't have any fear of rejection so
I always shoot my shot oh that's what she said yeah um there's guys down here at 6000 Chandler Phillips love to root for that guy too great dude Eric Barnes 5900 are you nodding your head with me here Connor Chan Kim's 5900 Chan Kim who was the Magic Hat pick last week who got a hole in one for us and did pretty damn decent honestly that the Hat didn't take a complete L last week so we're gonna we're gonna spin the Hat the hat made the cut so hey that's that's a win uh sh how how are you willing
to go here um I'm going to be super interested to see what Peter Quest loads in at uh I would imagine DK is going to add him probably at sometime sometime between now and tomorrow afternoon um but I would anticipate he's gonna be down here in he's in 5200 did I just skim over him yep so Peter Quest is about probably as far down as I'm going 5200 pretty low 5200 is plenty low uh Adrian dumal Das shasa is 5400 he'll be in my pool uh maybe 10 15% just to as my he's the same price as toasty last we
ek even deeper odds than toasty was I just think he's got a lot more in the tank Than People realize because he's not a household name yet but this's another guy we're going to be talking about in the next couple of years on this show saying hey remember when he first told you about the Belgian Dum D yeah that like dochas do douche do or do not sh douche you sir got it yeah so it's for me it's just taking shots on uh on these guys with a lot of potential and we like we both watch a lot of the Co
rn fairy tour and Collegiate Golf and DP World Tour to kind of give you guys a heads up on who we're going to be talking about a in in for a long time uh that's that's the whole name of this game this show is very thorough am I right Connor very thorough fine tooth comb I'd argue the most thorough yeah and best looking oh yeah uh who do you think's gonna win this thing um I think I'm going oberg I think let's go ludvic oberg for the win and I will say I'm gonna say Hideki Matsuyama I think hidek
i's got he's got such a role going right now he already was pissed off when he shot a 63 at Riviera to win uh that's Legend status that was just a month or two ago uh this guy's on this guy's a monster on in tough conditions so H give me Hideki matama at 13 under power love it first round leader let's get let's get crazy with it I think we can go deep here I think it's going to be one of those lower guys that gets off to a hot start what about our guy o oh these odds are really fan there's too m
any good ones to pick from in this range here let's see odds aside just who do you think let's see damn it who's yours who's your first round leader uh 9:15 a.m. start time on Thursday I'm gonna I'm G to ride with o Berg on that too wow okay I'm gonna go Eric Van royan wild wild pick but first round leader he's a hot starter and he's when he's done really well he's just kind of held on the weekend uh I think I think he's got the he's got the makeup to go low on a Thursday so that's that's my pic
k yeah no I ludig is gonna need to go out and uh and get it done because that PM shift that he's doing the following day is not going to be uh not going to be aome that's not a going to be a cakewalk at all all right well next week is the week to end all weeks a stroll down Magnolia Lane Hello friends we'll be back for the Masters not from Augusta National Golf Club unfortunately but we'll be wearing green we'll be sipping aelas and Connor finish the show with our hat pick Chan Kim hole in one I
got a straw hat for you see it's a real hat it's it's funny because it's not a normal siiz hat it's got to fit your Noggin who is it now I got to put the Hat down it's Number 103 on the list well that is probably a little deeper than we want again this week but let's see what we got hey let's roll with it Brendan Todd Brendan Todd the Todd father let's go Todd that is actually better than I expected with the hat pick so hey Brandon Todd let's freaking go I actually like that one good job hat to
o good hat nice hat all right join us next week for the masters from Conor Coughlin I'm Bo mcbear this is in between media hit the outro [Music] now
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